Oil Forecast – Energy Shock Could Send Crude Towards $200

Investors and financial media believe inflation peaked and is headed much lower. I agree inflation likely peaked, but I’m still determining how fast it recedes. Storm clouds are gathering on the energy front with concerns over a potential diesel crisis. An energy shock in 2023 could derail the “peak inflation” narrative when everyone least expects it.

Policy Backfire

President Biden made good on his promise to punish the energy sector. One of his first steps in office was to block the Keystone pipeline. Pipelines are the safest and cheapest way to move energy products. Transporting crude by truck and rail is much more dangerous, inefficient, and expensive, according to experts.

Besides canceling pipelines, Biden suspended oil and gas leases on all Federal lands. Leases have slowed to a trickle, according to the graph below. Finding and producing more oil is hard when you can’t get permits.

Source: https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/us-gulf-of-mexico/article/14282603/us-federal-oil-and-gas-leasing-hits-historically-low-levels

Diesel Shortages

Within the next few months, the entire world will face potential diesel shortages. Refineries can’t keep up, and storage is at multi-year lows. The situation is particularly dire in the Northeast, where many homes still use fuel oil for heating and are expecting a cold winter. East Coast Diesel storage is well below the 5-year average.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-22/shortage-looms-for-diesel-world-s-most-crucial-fuel

Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Some speculate the Biden administration drained the Strategic Petroleum Reverse as a political tool to lower gas prices before the mid-terms. With strategic reserves at levels not seen since 1985, the US is now forced to restock this critical resource in an environment of higher prices and thin supply. Under the worst-case scenario, a supply shock now could send energy soaring.

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Looming Rail Strike

A potential rail worker strike complicates the energy situation at the worst possible time and could trigger a winter diesel crisis. Remember how I said pipelines are the most efficient and safest way to move oil? With pipelines constrained under Biden, more oil is moving by rail.

The two largest freight rail unions recently split their votes on the latest compromise offered by the Biden administration, increasing the prospects for a nationwide strike as winter sets in across the country. A rail shutdown would be catastrophic.

Chinese Demand

One of the main reasons energy prices are low is because of plummeting demand out of China. Covid cases are spiking, and cities could remain in lockdown for the next several months. What happens if the Chinese economy comes roaring back in 2023, as some speculate? Demand for energy could soar when supply is most vulnerable.

Source: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1595061300631343109/photo/1

Conclusion

Governments across the globe will consume available energy stockpiles over the next several months. Those facilities must be restocked before next winter. Higher demand and reduced supply could trigger widespread shortages, especially in diesel. Some analysts see crude approaching $200 a barrel in 2023. The resulting jump in inflation could overturn the “peak inflation” narrative when everyone least expects it.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more charts and regular updates, please visit here.

Could Tesla Stock Collapse Over FTX Fallout?

Bearish Proxy

With Twitter shares no longer trading on the open market, haters may turn to TSLA as a bearish Proxy to punish Elon.

Tesla Price Chart

Below is the daily chart of TSLA. Prices have held support for 2-years. If it breaks now, it could trigger cascading stop losses lower. The next 2-weeks are crucial.

  • Tesla is testing critical support near $180.
  • Twitter bears can no longer short the stock after

Elon took TWTR private.

  • Worst-case scenario: The bears use TLSA as a proxy for Twitter crashing prices below the 2021 lows.

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The FTX Fallout Could Hurt Tesla

I admit this is a stretch but hear me out: The same money that likes to invest in crypto also loves Tesla. If you’re invested in one, there’s a high probability you own the other.

FTX was one of the primary brokers for big institutional money. The money stuck in FTX is off the table, and big money may have to liquidate other investments (Tesla???) to balance their books.

FTX Bankruptcy Update

The CEO who oversaw the Enron Bankruptcy is now in charge of FTX. In a filing with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware, he stated that “in his 40 years of legal and restructuring experience,” he had never seen “such a complete failure of corporate controls.”

The dominoes continue to fall as lending and brokerage firm Genesis recently suspended withdrawals. The devastation in crypto could have further to go. Keep a close eye on Bitcoin, Tether, and Binance heading into December.

If FTX was one of the primary brokers for big institutional money, and they’ve blown up, then institutional clients are probably looking for the door out.

A rush to the exits could trigger a cascading liquidity event rivaling the 1929 stock market crash. Anyone that suspends withdraws is saying they are bankrupt, or at a minimum – insolvent.

Quick Take: Tesla shares could be on the verge of an epic breakdown. It could get nasty if prices fall below $170

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more charts and regular updates, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Gold Bottom’s as Crypto Implodes Over FTX Bankruptcy

Inflation Data

The Core Inflation rate fell to 6.3% in October and was below the 6.5% estimate. However, it remains high and above the Fed’s 2.0% target. Nevertheless, markets soared on the news inferring the Fed could take a softer approach with rate hikes.

Gold’s Big Picture

The big picture in gold supports a crucial bottom in 2022, similar to what we witnessed in 2018. I expect prices to work their way higher over the next several months. Sometime next year, we should see a sustained breakout above $2000, followed by a strong rally into the 2024 peak. Target wise: I still like $3000 (+/- $200).

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Gold’s Double Bottom

While the big-picture outlook for gold mimics the 2018 low, the intermediate-term trend echoes the double bottom of 2021. With a confirmed breakout, I expect gold to work its way back above the 200-day MA in the coming days/weeks. Expect occasional pullbacks, while the overall trend should be higher. Our work supports a breakout above $2000 in the second half of 2023.

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Crypto Collapse

On a side note, Crypto is in deep trouble again as Crypto exchange FTX and many of its affiliated companies filling for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Friday, with FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried stepping down as CEO. Just in August, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) was touted as the next Warren Buffett? I Guess not…

Source: https://twitter.com/buccocapital/status/1590018513577848832

Final Thoughts

With inflation peaking, the Fed waning and crypto imploding – gold appears to have finally bottomed. I’m looking forward to a very strong advance in precious metals in 2023 and 2024. Watch silver and platinum closely.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more charts and regular updates, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Gold Must Hold September Low to Avoid Capitulation

Prices are pulling back, and we could see a retest of the September low. If the retest is successful, a bottom will be confirmed. A failed retest that closes progressively below $1600 could trigger a downside capitulation.

Gold Retest

After the four drops into the 2021 low, there was a scary retest. Something similar could play out again, and gold may be coming back to test the $1622 low.

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Gold Price Forecast

Prices may return to retest the September $1622 low – prices must hold. With global risk rising every day the odds of something breaking in the financial markets is rising. A continued breakdown below $1600 would be harmful and could signal capitulation.

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Final Thoughts

My bearish outlook on bitcoin and the stock market is beginning to conflict with my near-term bullish view on gold. It’s hard for me to envision a widespread breakdown in risk assets that doesn’t impact gold negatively. The next few weeks are critical.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more charts and regular updates, please visit here.

Bitcoin Forecast – Bearish Analog Supports $9500 Price Target

In a recent update titled Will Bitcoin Capitulate? Benjamin Cowen highlights similarities between bitcoin patterns that could signal a 50% collapse from current levels.

Diving deeper into his analysis, I expose startling parallels that support this thesis with a potential bitcoin target of $9500 by mid-December.

Bitcoin Cycles

In case you were unaware, the bitcoin cycle peaks every 4-years. Typically, prices top in the fourth quarter, preceding a mid-term election (2013, 2017, 2021, 2025, 2029, etc.).

Why do prices peak a year before the mid-terms? I think it’s because one party loses control of the House or the Senate, creating a divided government. Liquidity dries up, creating a risk-off environment.

Bitcoin Price Forecast

Below are the benchmarks paralleling the 2018 breakdown pattern to now. If the analog persists, expect a post-election capitulation starting in November.

  • After the 4-year cycle peak, bitcoin enters a grueling 5 to 6-month decline dropping over 70%.
  • Prices bottom mid-year, typically in June, and consolidate in a triangle pattern.
  • Prices dip in October as political candidates face off – prices trend quietly higher into the elections.
  • A sharp post-election breakdown begins in November lasting about a month.

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Note: The post-election decline in 2018 was about 47%. A similar outcome in 2022 implies a $9500 bitcoin target.

What Could Go Wrong?

To cancel the above analog: bitcoin would have to break the triangle pattern and close above the August $25,212 pivot. I think the odds of a bullish outcome are low and would assign a 70% probability to hitting new lows.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more charts and regular updates, please visit here.

Gold Prediction – Gold Prices Stabilize Over Growing Nuclear Threat

  • Metals and miners continue to build momentum off their recent lows, supporting our outlook for a September bottom.
  • The S&P 500 is tracing out an eerily similar structure to the 2008 bear market, suggesting the worst of the bear market may still be ahead.
  • The threat of nuclear weapons and rising geopolitical tension may help put a floor under precious metals.

Bear Market Analog  

Source: https://thefelderreport.com/2022/10/05/why-the-bear-market-in-stocks-may-only-be-halfway-through/

Below is a chart from Jesse Felder spotlighting the current bear market in stocks compared to others. His research suggests we may be at the halfway point of a more profound decline. If correct, then stocks will likely continue their downward trajectory into the first half of 2023.

The 2008 Bear Market

Below are the benchmarks struck during the 2008 bear market. Study the chart and compare it to the current situation. The similarities are scary, in my opinion.

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The 2022 Bear Market

The 2022 bear market is on a parallel course to 2008. The first three benchmarks have turned green, and we are in the process of fulfilling number 4 (blue).

I’ll be monitoring the charts closely for additional confirmation. If the analog continues with the above checklist – stocks may crater into Q1 2023, followed by even lower lows mid-year.

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The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 2 and has begun to rise. The cycle likely bottomed in September.

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Gold Price Chart

Gold quickly recaptured the $1680 breakdown supporting an important low. To establish a new uptrend, prices must break decisively above the dashed downtrend line.

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Silver Price Chart

I believe silver bottomed before gold at $17.40 and formed a divergent low. To support a new uptrend, prices must recapture the $22.00 region and 200-day MA.

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Gold Miners Chart (GDX)

Miners held the 50-day EMA during the recent pullback supporting our outlook for an important low. Upside follow-through above $26.11 would be near-term bullish.

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Bottom Line

I think gold is in the process of forming a critical bottom. I expect new highs in 2023 and a continuation into the first half of 2024. Our work supports a $2800 to $3200 target within the next 24-months.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more charts and regular updates, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Price Action Supporting Major Bottom

Last week I noted the potential for an approaching low in gold and a repeat of the 2018 bottom.

Gold miners finished last week with decisive bullish engulfing candles promoting that outlook.

With gold futures back above the September breakdown ($1680), the odds for a significant bottom are growing.

Gold Weekly Chart

After gold peaked at $1377.50 in 2016, prices consolidated in a sideways ABC correction for 25 months before finally bottoming in 2018.

I see the potential for a repeat of the 2018 bottom. It’s been 25 months since the August 2020 peak at $2089. Gold traced out an expanded ABC correction, and prices could be bottoming as we speak.

A bottom here would reinforce the potential for a vigorous advance into the next 4-year cycle peak due by mid-2024.

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Gold Daily Chart

We have four drops from the March top, similar to the 2020/2021 correction. Gold undercut the $1680 support level, and the last few bulls capitulated. Progressive closes back above the $1680 breakdown level will strongly support a bottom.

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Technical Non-Confirmation: Silver and Platinum never confirmed the September breakdown in gold thus supporting a bottom.

Silver Chart

Silver has been building a positive MACD divergence since May, and prices never confirmed the September breakdown in gold. We have a swing low, and a robust close above $20.00 would support a bottom.

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Platinum Chart

Platinum also stayed above its early September low and never confirmed the breakdown in gold below $1680. Prices need progressive closes above the 200-day MA ($953) to confirm a bottom.

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GDX Weekly Chart

Miners (GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ) formed large weekly bullish engulfing candles supporting a potential bottom.

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Bottom Line

I see multiple factors supporting a repeat of the 2018 bottom. If gold recaptures and stays above $1680 in October, it might be off to the races. Welcome news for gold bugs.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Financial Stress Indicators Reach Crisis Levels

The MOVE Index

The Move Index is essentially the Volatility Index (VIX) for bonds. When financial markets are stressed – it tends to rise. At 158.99 – it’s now above panic levels.

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Crisis Readings

According to Bianco Research, a rise above 155 in the MOVE index commonly denotes a crisis. The graph below highlights previous events such as the Great Financial Crisis, Iraq War, Worldcom Bankruptcy, September 11th, LTCM Failure, etc.

Source: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1574877063818973184/photo/1

Treasury Liquidity

The status of Treasury liquidity supports a potential plumbing issue. When markets are stressed, vanishing liquidity causes the average yield error in Treasuries to soar (see below). The recent spike to 2.93% achieved panic levels not seen since the Coivd collapse. If the credit markets freeze – expect central bank intervention.

Source: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1574877068789162015/photo/

Financial Stress Indicator

Corroborating the potential for a crisis is Bank of America’s Financial Stress Indicator, which recently fell to 1.75. It remains above the Covid spike but still at levels not seen since the 2009 financial crisis.

Source: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1574877070966005770/photo/1

Gold Price Forecast

Gold has been falling since March over rising interest rates and aggressive Fed tightening. With short-term Treasury yields above 4.00%, I don’t think rates can go much further without breaking something, given the current level of market stress. This looks like a repeat of the 2018 bottom. I expect higher prices in 2023, extending into a 2024 cycle peak.

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Note: Gold could spike lower temporarily…if we see a liquidity event, but overall, I’m forecasting a new advance through 2023 and into the first half of 2024.

Contrary Bullish Indicator?

Below is a headline from the Wall Street Journal asking if Gold Lost its Haven Status? This made the front page of the business section on September 20th. Contrary indicator? I’d be surprised if people still feel this way 2-years from now.

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Bottom Line

In closing, I think gold is very close to a bottom. The next few weeks are crucial. The soaring dollar could increase financial stress, which could trigger a crisis.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Rising Rates Crushed Gold, Prices Could Soon Bottom

In March, Gold was above $2000 on its way to new highs. Prices did an about-face out of nowhere, and it’s been downhill ever since. What changed? Answer: An aggressive shift in Fed policy.

The Fed 9-months Ago

Back in January, the Fed was injecting $60 billion a month into the markets through Quantitative Easing (QE), Fed funds were between 0% to 0.25%, and the 2-year Treasury was yielding 0.78%; they expected just one or two 0.25% rate hikes in 2022.

The Fed Now

The Fed is removing $95 billion a month (QT), Fed funds are on pace to reach 4.00% by year-end, and the 2-year is yielding 4.30% (up 352 basis points). Their forecast for one or two 0.25% hikes in 2022 was laughable – they are on pace to reach sixteen (16) by year-end.

When Will Gold Bottom?

Gold is interest rate sensitive. With the Fed on the rampage against inflation, they have hiked rates more aggressively than at any other time in history. This destructive shift in monetary policy sent rates soaring and gold to fresh lows. For gold to bottom – interest rates need to stop rising. I think we are getting close (see below).

The 2-Year Treasury Yield

The best proxy for future Fed funds is the 2-year Treasury. The most recent Summary of Economic Projections suggests the Fed will stop hiking when they get to 4.60%, i.e., the terminal rate. With the 2-year recently hitting 4.30%, I’d say rates are getting close to the Fed’s target.

2 Year Treasury Yield

With the 2-year yield at 4.30%, and a Fed terminal rate of 4.60%, interest rates should be nearing a top. Of course, they could go a little higher, but the vast majority of the tightening seems to be priced in, and we should be on the lookout for a bottom in gold.

Gold Chart: It looks like we have a repeat of the 2018 bottom. Back then, the Fed was tightening, and the 2-year yield topped out in October/November. Gold figured out rates were peaking ahead of time and bottomed a few months earlier. I think we are seeing the same thing now.

Gold chart

Note – If gold bottoms here as forecasted, I’ll expect a breakout to new ALL-TIME highs in 2023 that extends into the first half of 2024 and the next 4-year peak.

Maximum Bearishness in Gold?

Below is a snapshot of the Wall Street Journal proclaiming gold Lost its Haven Status. This made the front page of the business section on September 20th. Bullish contrary indicator? I believe so!

Gold Loses Status as Heaven

In closing, I think gold is very close to a bottom. The next few weeks are crucial. The soaring dollar could stress financial markets a bit further, which could trigger a washout low in precious metals.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Bitcoin Forecast – Price Must Hold $28,000 to Prevent Total Collapse

Bitcoin Head & Shoulder Top

Bitcoin is hovering above critical support at $28,000. Breaking lower would establish completion of the head and shoulder topping pattern. The initial target is $20,000, with a reasonable possibility of reaching $12,500 later this year, possibly soon if we see another crypto flash crash.

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Bull Case

To repair near-term sentiment, bitcoin must get back above $32,000 soon.

Overall, I’m bullish on blockchain and will look to accumulate assets during the washout.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Tesla Forecast – Stock Price Vulnerable to Collapse Over Twitter Uncertainty

Tesla Technical Analysis and Price Forecast

TSLA daily chart

Shares have fallen back to support near $700. This area held in February. With widespread market weakness, we believe Tesla is more vulnerable than ever to a sharp breakdown – prices MUST hold $680 in May.

Takeaway

Tesla could break key support in the coming days. A daily close below $680 could spark significant selling.

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To be fair I thought Tesla should have broken below $700 back in February, but prices held. Will it hold again? I’d be surprised.

Key Price Levels

The first level of support arrives at $550; below that, a quick trip to $420 would be in the cards.

Tesla and Twitter

The uncertainty regarding Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter is becoming an anchor that could drag Tesla shares lower.

We think a potential trigger event could be Elon Musk needing to sell more TSLA to finance TWTR. If selling becomes epic – we could see a waterfall type decline.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices Show Signs of Bottoming

Gold bugs will be happy to know the 5-year chart suggests a simple pause before new highs (see below).

Metals and miners could drop further over systemic market risk, but the technicals are starting to support a bottom.

Gold Price Forecast

Gold 5-Year daily chart

The cup-with-handle pattern looks complete. Prices fell deeper than anticipated, but I’m beginning to see signs of a bottom. I continue to expect a breakout above $2000 in the coming months; probably when the Fed pivots.

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Gold daily chart

The close-up of the handle formation shows gold dipping briefly below the 200-day MA. Prices closed back above it Thursday, and I see the potential for a bottom if we see a strong finish above $1850.

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Silver and Miners Analysis

Silver daily chart

Silver must get back above $22.50 to consider a cycle low.

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GDX daily chart

Miners managed to close above last week’s gap ($31.70). Prices may have reached a cycle low. Prices remain vulnerable to sharp dips and general market risk.

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GDXJ daily chart

Juniors bounced sharply, supporting a possible low. A close above the gap near $41.50 is the next step in confirming a bottom.

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Word of Caution: Markets are likely to remain volatile through 2022. Whatever happens today could swiftly reverse tomorrow. Try not to read too much into one week’s price action.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Crypto Update – Markets Wobbled Could Tether (USDT) Collapse Next

Terra Luna‘s collapse was a stunning right hook to crypto; markets are staggered. Tether’s market cap plunged 10% in May – Will horrified investors continue to cash out? Tether accounts for nearly 25% of ALL trading volume, as I understand it. What happens if prices de-peg like UST?

Stablecoin Collapse (Terra Luna)

Highly leveraged assets, like crypto, retreat quickly when liquidity vanishes from the market. Something like $200 billion in “paper gains” evaporated last week, according to Bloomberg. Terra Luna’s market cap plunged $40-billion from the April peak.

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Source: Coinmarketcap

Tether (USDT) Risk

I’ve heard ample evidence supporting possible fraud in stable coin USDT (Tether).

By some, Tether has been described as a massive Ponzi scheme, bigger than Madoff.

As with all Ponzi schemes, they work great as prices rise, and only fail when customers ask for their money back. Is a meltdown in Tether (USDT) next?

Tether Peg

Tether lost its peg as redemptions spiked (see below). Was that a one-time event or just the beginning salvo?

On May 12th, Tether lost its peg (dipped to .95) briefly as $3-billion of redemptions slammed dealers.

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Source: Coinmarketcap

Tether Market Cap

The market cap of USDT plunged $10 billion during the month of May. If redemptions continue at this pace and Tether can’t meet them, we could see a nuclear winter in crypto.  Graphical user interface, chart, line chart Description automatically generated

Source: Coinmarketcap

BTC/USD Price Forecast

Bitcoin may be producing a bear flag just above the $28,000 level. Breaking below $28,000 this week could trigger a second down leg. To support a rebound, prices need to close above $32,000. Otherwise, this looks like a pause before heading lower.

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Note- Sometime this year I see bitcoin dropping to $12,500, possibly soon if Tether de-pegs.

Takeaway

Crypto investors need to watch Tether’s like a hawk. I see much more downside ahead.

Longer-term I’m bullish blockchain technology and in particular Cardano (ADA).

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Gold Update – Prices Nearing a Bottom After Dipping Below $1800

Gold Update

Gold futures dipped to an intraday low of $1785. The decline that started in March has broken below the trendline and is within spitting distance of the lower line. Over the past months, $1800 has offered moderate support.

Takeaway

I like the potential for a cycle low around the $1800 level. However, prices could certainly dip further.

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Key Price Levels

  • To facilitate a cycle low, I’d like to see futures close above $1850.
  • Whereas a sustained drop below $1750 could trigger a washout retest of $1675.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Crypto Update – Bitcoin and Ethereum Nearing Crash Status

The selloff that started after last week’s Fed announcement is continuing. I see the potential for a flash crash in May.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are below critical support levels and could drop further and faster. The price action over the next few days is key.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Price Forecast

BTC/USD Daily chart: A potential breakdown below the neckline of a skewed head and shoulder top. I think the left shoulder is higher than it would have been otherwise if we didn’t get so much free covid money in 2020 & 2021.

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Ethereum Technical Analysis and Price Forecast

ETHEREUM Daily chart: Prices are breaking critical trendline support. I see the potential for a sharp move lower.

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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Market Update – Stock Market Nearing Crash Status

The storm clouds are gathering, and I see the potential for a technical breakdown later this month.

Potential Flash Crash

If liquidity seizes up, we could see the unwinding of leveraged positions in meme stocks and crypto that could extend to all markets.

Framework

If highly leveraged markets drop sharply, leveraged traders need to take a loss or come up with more collateral. Extreme leverage (5X or more) won’t meet the minimum requirements and will be forced to sell. Downside momentum builds, making selling worse expanding margin calls and panic.

Recipe for Disaster?

Spiking global interest rates (save Japan), severe economic restrictions, war in Ukraine, growing food shortages, and record fuel prices…all at a time when the Fed is tightening. Wow, that seems like a recipe for disaster.

DOW UPDATE: The DOW has held support above 32,000 over the past 12-months. If this support level is breached, we could see a downside washout towards the 20% correction in May.

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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Silver Futures Soaring Before Tomorrow’s Inflation Update

Silver may be front-running tomorrow’s number.

If silver maintains bullish momentum after tomorrow’s data, it could be off to the races from here.

In our most bullish scenario, silver could breakout above $30.00 as soon as May.

Silver Cycle Lows

The 4-month intermediate cycle in silver has been reasonably consistent. The last cycle bottomed in December 2021. The next cycle bottom is due around now.

Silver Daily Futures Forecast

Currently, silver is breaking above the correction trendline. Perhaps the cycle low arrived a few days early (on April 6th). Maybe prices bottomed ahead of tomorrow’s CPI data.

Upside follow-through that stays above $26.00 would support a strong move higher and a potential breakout above $30.00.

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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

AMC Price Update – Dropping Below $20.00 Could Trigger Broader Collapse

AMC Price Action Recap

  • Last week I noted the pattern breakout in AMC that signaled a near-term target of $32.00 or higher.
  • Prices spiked to $34.33 and reversed immediately at the described levels.
  • A post-Fed minutes plunge below $20.00 would support a collapse to fresh lows in April.

AMC Daily Chart and Price Forecast

Prices stopped cold at multi-zone resistance highlighted last week – AMC needs to hold $20.00 between now and Friday to prevent a more extensive breakdown. Collapsing below $17.00 would promote the worst-case bearish scenario and drop to new lows.

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In short, AMC needs to hold $20.00 to remain constructive. Slipping below $17.00 would support a breakdown.

I own HYMC, so I want to see AMC prosper, but at the moment, the technical outlook is a bit scary. I think the Fed may break something when they tighten.

Disclosure: I’ve been long HYMC before AMC took a 22% stake.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Is HYMC the Next Meme Stock?

HYMC Recap

I noted the bullish potential in HYMC last November when I felt they had 4 of the 6-essential ingredients in becoming a meme: Meme Stock Candidate HYMC.

They recently checked the final two boxes, and things could get interesting if prices break above $2.00.

HYMC Price Target

To confirm a bull flag breakout, HYMC needs to close above $2.00.

Sustained upside follow-through above $2.72 would promote a flag target near $7.00 and perhaps as high as $10.00.

Dropping below $1.00 would be negative and support a breakdown.

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Disclosure: I’m long HYMC shares and warrants.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

AMC Price Forecast – Price Breakout Supports $32.00 Target

AMC Price Target

With AMC currently above last week’s high, the odds favor a breakout to the $30.00 to $32.00 area. I see stiff resistance coming in around $32.50, which may be challenging to overcome. To recommend sustained upside, I need to see a robust breakout above $36.00.

A reversal that closes below $21.00 would recommend an end to the current rebound and a potential new leg lower.

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Key Resistance

If AMC reaches $32.50, it will meet converging resistance:

1) Prior support and breakdown below $32.50 from December 2021.

2) The declining 200-day MA.

3) The dashed downtrend line going back to the top.

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Disclosure: I’ve been long HYMC before AMC bought and took a 22% ownership stake.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.