Gold Forecast – Gold Starting Final Drop into Intermediate Low

The battle between Trump and the Democrats over further stimulus is causing erratic and volatile swings in gold. Last week’s convincing rebound was just a head-fake, gold should resume its downtrend towards $1800 and bottom in late October.

GOLD DAILY CAHRT: Last week’s stimulus negotiations created a second 3 to 5-day rebound in the form of an ABC correction. That rebound appears over, and we expect a secondary decline into late October. Overall, we think gold could bottom around the $1800 level (+/- $20.00).

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Our Gold Cycle Indicator remains elevated at 235 after Friday’s strong close. It should descend below 100 and enter minimum cycle bottoming as metals and miners approach the next low.

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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Gold Forecast – Gold Miners (GDX) Turning Back Lower After Convincing Rebound

GDX DAILY CAHRT

The drawn-out stimulus negotiations of last week triggered a second 3 to 5-day rebound in the form of an ABC correction. The rebound should end any day, and we expect a secondary decline in late October. Overall, we still expect a cycle target surrounding $34.50. It would take a robust breakout above the black trendline (currently $42.00) to trigger an immediate buy signal.

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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Forecast – Decline into Major Low Resuming

It appears the stimulus negotiations were the primary driver preventing gold’s breakdown. Trump ended those talks today via a tweet, and gold should resume its previous downtrend. We continue to look for a significant bottom in the next 1 to 2-weeks.

GOLD

Gold reached an intraday high of $1927 before sellers entered the market. Prices turned sharply lower after Trump’s stimulus tweet – falling back below $1900. With the stimulus news out of the way, I think gold will resume its decline into the next 6-month low. A daily close below $1880 would reinforce a breakdown.

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SILVER

Silver collapsed below $23.50 after Trump’s tweet, and it looks like prices are finally breaking lower form the bear flag.

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PLATINUM

Platinum also broke sharply lower after Trumps’ stimulus tweet. Prices should be dropping into the next 6-month target.

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GDX

The decline in miners was delayed over stimulus rumors. Miners formed a large bearish engulfing candle – it looks like the bear flag is finally breaking lower.

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GDXJ

Juniors formed a massive bearish engulfing candle after testing the moving average crossover near $57.00. Prices should continue to our target.

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Longer-term, metals and miners are going much higher – of that, I have little doubt. The week of October 12th could host the next low in gold.

Our Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 212. I won’t expect a bottom until it drops below 100.

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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, visit here.

Gold Forecast – How Gold Prices Could Exceed $10,000

THE BIG PICTURE FOR GOLD

The fundamental picture for precious metals has never been better. Governments worldwide have committed to suppressing interest rates and printing money to solve their debt problems. Eventually, they will be forced to default or devalue – it is that simple!

Collapse in Confidence

Government mismanagement will persist; this will lead to a breakdown in confidence amongst the American people. I see the potential for a breakup of the United States (balkanization) as political tensions escalate. Investors will flee government bonds fearing write-downs – gold will benefit.

Long-Term Cycle

Gold tends to form major bottoms every 8-years. The last low arrived in 2016. The next one should come in 2024. So, what can we expect over the next several years? Below are my thoughts.

An A=C measured target supports a price objective between $7500 – $10,000. However, a speculative mania or great depression could push prices north of $10,000 per ounce, in my opinion. The below chart is pure speculation, and my best guess according cycles and chart history – do not take it too seriously.

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Any way you look at it, gold is going much higher, in my opinion. Buyers today should be happy 10-years from now.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. Premium members receive daily market updates. For more information, visit here.

Gold Miners Update – Another Decline Coming in GDX

Miners are back-testing the breakdown trendline and the 10-day EMA ($39.66). The technical pattern resembles an ABC measured move to a target encompassing $33.50. Prices could turn back lower between now and Friday. It would take progressive closes above $40.00 to promote an alternate scenario.

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The correction into an intermediate low is filled with twists and turns, some convincing – do not be fooled.

The current rebound in gold should be limited to $1900 to $1920 before prices turn lower. We maintain an optimal cycle target of $1740 – $1780 in the opening weeks of October.

How markets react to tonight’s presidential debate will be interesting. Prepare for increased volatility.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. Premium members receive daily market updates. For more information, visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Gold Forecast – Gold Forming a Small Bear Flag

Gold peaked in August at $2089. The initial collapse to $1874 lasted just 3-days. Prices consolidated (descending triangle) for about a month, and the final breakdown is underway.

Bear Flag

The current rebound is taking the form of a small bear flag. These patterns often resolve themselves within 3 to 5 trading days. From here, the secondary collapse should resume with an ideal target window between $1705 and $1810. Optimal $1740 – $1780.

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The correction into an intermediate 6-month low is often filled with twists and turns, some very convincing – do not be fooled. This rally (bear flag) should be limited to $1900 to $1920 before prices turn back lower. Gold would have to close progressively above $1920 to advance an alternate scenario.

How markets react to tonight’s presidential debate will be interesting. Prepare for increased volatility.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. Premium members receive daily market updates. For more information, visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Forecast – Expect A Bottom Next Week

In August, we laid the foundation for a Major Buying Opportunity Arriving in September. The final collapse below $1900 is now underway, and precious metals could bottom next week. We see tremendous potential in silver and platinum going into 2021 (see articles below). Energy is also becoming attractive.

Will Platinum be the Next to Breakout?

Silver Forecast – Major Buy Signal

Gold Price Target

Gold is dropping into an intermediate low precisely on schedule. Our work supports a bottom next week – possibly on or surrounding the October 2nd employment report. The final breakdown phase usually lasts 5 to 8 trading days.

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Why Follow Cycles

I started studying various cycles in financial assets about 10-years ago. Oblivious to them before, I recognized their importance. If you know where you are in a cycle – everything gets a lot easier.

Gold has two dominant cycles: The 8-year cycle and the intermediate 6-month cycle.

  • The 8-year cycle represents major turning points for gold, often marking multi-year bottoms (2000, 2008, 2016, 2024, etc.)
  • The intermediate cycle bottoms roughly every 6-months and offers multiple trading and investing opportunities. The previous low arrived in March.

Below is a snippet of an 8-year low (blue arrow) and multiple 6-month lows (green arrows). As you can see, cycles offer attractive buying opportunities.

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Gold Cycle Indicator

Armed with the knowledge of cycles and well-adept in technical analysis, I decided to create the gold cycle indicator. It simplifies investing. When it drops below 100 and enters cycle bottoming, the 6-month cycle is bottoming. Does it catch every low perfectly? No. But it gets most of them.

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Final Note: Initial support arrives around $1808, with an ideal C-wave target of $1765.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Platinum Price Forecast – Will Platinum be the Next to Breakout

The global health crisis triggered unprecedented stimulus and debt expansion. Platinum is sensitive to inflation (like silver) and should respond bullishly. Longer-term, I think platinum could double the price of gold due to supply constraints.

PLATINUM LONG-TERM

A breakout above $1050 is needed to confirm a new bull market. With all the money printing, we see it as only a matter of time.

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PLATINUM NEAR-TERM TARGET

We see platinum finding support between $700 – $800. A breakout above $1050 in 2021 could signal an advance to $1750+.

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Click here for my article – Gold Forecast: Prices Collapsing to Cycle Target as Predicted

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information visit here.

Silver Forecast – Major Buy Signal

Silver Bull Market

After lagging gold for some time, silver finally broke above the long-term trendline and confirmed a new bull market. The global health crisis triggered unprecedented stimulus and debt expansion. Silver is ultra-sensitive to inflation and has responded accordingly. I am VERY BULLISH on silver long-term.

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Technical Note: A pullback could examine (backtest) the July 2020 breakout area near $20.00. From the next low, I believe prices could resume the bullish breakout and reach $35.00 – $50.00 in 2021. Longer-term, I believe silver is going well-above $100 per ounce.

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The breakdown phase has begun into the next cycle low. Ideal support arrives between $19.00 – $21.00.

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Click here for my article – Gold Forecast: Prices Collapsing to Cycle Target as Predicted

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information visit here.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices Nearing Major Buy Signal

In this article, I will lay the groundwork for the next low in gold and touch on the emotional pitfalls we face as investors. Why is it that most traders sell when they should be buying and buy when they should be selling?

The Intermediate Cycle

Gold goes through the same process (rally-top-decline) approximately every 6-months. With each phase, there are various emotional benchmarks that drive sentiment. Becoming aware of them could make you a better investor.

Emotional Barriers

Near the Cycle Top: Retail traders are loaded with out of the money (OTM) call options and are perilously overleveraged. They only read articles that confirm their outlook (confirmation bias). They devise reasons why prices can only go higher (fear of missing out).

Bearish Breakdown: A bearish breakdown or recognition day arrives when critical support is violated, and retail traders rush to the exits to preserve profits or limit a mounting loss. Often extreme selling morphs into a panic. I outlined the current breakdown in my Gold Forecast: The September Breakdown in Gold is Beginning.

Near the Cycle Bottom: Everyone that was once bullish is now finding reasons why prices will continue to drop. They read bearish-article-after-bearish-article expecting lower prices. They finally snap and sell at a loss or open bearish positions. Prices bottom a few days later, and they are caught on the wrong side once again.

Why does this blatantly obvious pattern repeat? The answer is simple – Humans Nature. Humans are too emotional not be affected. I got tired of making the same, emotionally driven mistakes, and created the Gold Cycle Indicator. It simplifies the investing process, and when it turns green – I look to buy.

Gold Price Target

I believe gold is dropping into the next intermediate low. Prices should bottom in late September or early October. Our Gold Cycle Indicator is expected to reach the green zone as the cycle bottoms.

The Bearish Breakdown is underway, and prices should enter our cycle target window ($1725 – $1810) by late September or early October.

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The Gold Cycle Indicator finished Wednesday at 182. It continues to work its way towards minimum cycle bottoming (green zone).

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For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more, click here.

Tesla Stock Price Crash Update

Tesla stock prices rebounded into yesterday’s battery day. I think the rebound is over, and a breakdown below $329.88 could trigger a sharp collapse to $180 – $220 before the next multi-week bounce. Longer-term, I continue to target a drop below $75.00.

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Currently, I do not own TSLA – I’m very bullish long-term.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Prices Collapsing to Cycle Target as Predicted

GOLD

Gold broke sharply lower yesterday, and this should be the beginning of the September breakdown we’ve been expecting. The decline phase into the cycle low should take 1 to 2-weeks.

SILVER

Silver collapsed below critical support at $26.00, and the next target is $22.50. If prices continue to fall beyond $22.50, then we could see a dip back to $19.00 – $20.00, which in my opinion, would be a significant buying opportunity. I think the bull market in silver is just getting started. I’m considering adding silver mining exposure to the Premium member’s educational portfolio on this dip.

GDX

Gold miners maintained support surrounding $39.00 yesterday despite collapsing gold and silver prices. We believe prices will eventually break below $39.00. Initial support comes in around $34.00 and below that near $31.00.

GDXJ

Juniors have been climbing just above the 50-day EMA (currently $57.39). The trend appears to be losing momentum, and prices may be on the verge of collapse.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information visit here.

Gold Forecast – Gold Breakdown Target & The Next Buying Opportunity

Last week’s gold forecast timed the triangle pattern peak, and gold is beginning to break sharply lower as expected. Our work continues to support a September breakdown into an October low.

Approximately every 6-months, gold forms an intermediate cycle low. Sometimes the cycles are cut a little short, as we saw with the coronavirus – other times, they extend. The March 6-month low arrived early due to the extreme nature of the decline. The next low is rapidly approaching and should arrive in early October.

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Note: A short cycle (March) is often followed by a slightly longer cycle to balance the span. Our work continues to support a breakdown below $1900 in September and a decline to our preferred target box.

Our Gold Cycle Indicator was designed to navigate the 6-month cycle. I won’t expect a low until the value drops below 100 and enters minimum cycle bottoming. At a minimum, we believe gold will revisit $1800.

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When the GCI drops below 100, I will begin adding to our Gold Predict Educational Portfolio. I’m considering adding silver miners and some energy. I believe the unprecedented gas and oil well shutdowns will create a supply issue next year; higher oil prices could spark the upcoming inflation.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Gold Forecast – The September Breakdown in Gold is Beginning

Futures hit $1983.80 on Wednesday and turned immediately lower. Next, we expect a collapse below $1900 to trigger the next 6-month low and subsequent buying opportunity.

Below is the triangle chart from Monday. As you can see, the trend adhered to the pattern boundaries, and prices peaked at the area labeled “e” a few days later. Gold should continue its way lower and break support surrounding $1900 by late September or early October.

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The gold bulls have defended $1910 – $1920 aggressively throughout August and September. When that area finally gives, it could produce a sharp collapse below $1900. Our ideal target for the 6-month low surrounds $1750.

Longer-term, we are very bullish on precious metals and believe gold will enter a bubble. Please see our article: Are You Ready for The Bubble in Gold?

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Forecast – Breakout or Fake Out Update

Gold is approaching the upper triangle boundary. I get the sense prices may try to break higher before or just after the 2:00 PM Fed decision. Be prepared for increased volatility today and tomorrow.

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The potential for a false breakout or violent swing is high. If gold were to break higher from the triangle pattern, I would need to see a robust close above $2000 to support a retest of the August $2089 high.

Intermediate Cycle

Gold is nowhere near cycle readings consistent with a traditional 6-month low. So, if prices do break higher, it would just an extension of the cycle that began in March – not a new intermediate rally. In this scenario, I would expect a cycle inversion and a peak by early October.

Emotions are high, and this is where traders make mistakes. Try to remain patient; the next buying opportunity will arrive when the gold cycle indicators drop below 100 (currently 297).

We should know within the next 48-hours if this is a bearish fake-out or a bullish short-term breakout. I’ll continue to update Premium members throughout the day.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Gold Forecast – Gold Nearing Final Peak of Triangle Pattern

Gold has been consolidating for over a month. The triangle pattern is nearly complete, and we expect the current rally to end by Tuesday or Wednesday. Our work supports a sharp decline in gold below $1900 later this month.

The pattern in gold is about 80% complete. Prices could rally a little higher and tag the area labeled “e” (around $1980), but that is not a requirement. Once “e” is complete, gold should turn lower and break sharply below $1900, triggering the final C-wave decline into the next 6-month low.

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Note- The bulls have defended the $1910 – $1920 aggressively. Once that level fails (next 2 to 3-weeks), I think we can expect a sharp ($75.00 – $100) one-day decline.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

 

Gold Forecast – Are You Ready for The Bubble in Gold?

Asset bubbles are a repeating theme. In 2017, bitcoin entered a bubble driving prices from $1000 to $19,000. The recent Bubble in Tesla marked a rally from $70 (post-split price) to over $500 in less than 6-months. Our work supports a bubble in gold and precious metals later this decade. This article will explore the various aspects of a bubble and how one could prepare.

Below are the three ingredients often associated with bubbles.

  1. A disruptive force that triggers speculation.
  2. A believable story that gains mass appeal.
  3. Widespread adoption and the fear of missing out.

Disruptive Forces

The internet fueled the 1990s Dot.com bubble. Blockchain technology stoked Bitcoin, and the Electric Vehicle (EV) revolution triggered the recent bubble in Tesla. Next, I believe a global currency crisis could trigger a bubble in gold that sends prices to unthinkable levels.   

Governments around the world have made it clear they will continue to print money. Eventually, they will have no choice but to default and restructure their debt. A new monetary system (likely digital) will emerge, and I believe this will be the driving force behind the bubble in gold.

Velocity of Money

Inflation and supply shortages will only get worse. In the latter phase of the monetary crisis, the velocity of money will increase sharply. Instead of hoarding currency, people will spend their dollars quickly – fearing widespread shortages and higher prices.

Physical Bullion Coins

Finding quality bullion products could become difficult. Partly because of resource shortages but more likely because of a demand shock. What is a demand shock? That is when a rapid influx in demand overwhelms supply for months or even years. Any supply that hits the market is quickly gobbled up – no matter how high the price. We are seeing some of this now.

I prefer government minted coins over bars or rounds. Why? They are recognizable and harder to counterfeit. There will likely be numerous fake coins and bars circulating near the end of the bubble – you will want to have something dealers and individuals recognize and trust.

When to Sell

Timing the exact top of a bubble is difficult. Towards the end, prices will often double in a month or less. People who have never bought gold or silver will be panicking to get some (fear of missing out). You will overhear conversations in the grocery store about a mining stock or a new “gold-backed” cryptocurrency…that is when you know we are getting close. I spotted the final bubble phase in Bitcoin and Tesla about two weeks before they peaked.

How to Prepare

I prefer a long-term accumulation strategy – trying to trade volatile markets is a recipe for disaster. Sure, you may have a good trade here or there, but eventually, you are going to get stung. I learned this the hard way. After adopting my long-term approach, I sleep better at night and have almost zero stress. Our gold cycle indicator was designed for just this.

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Conclusion

I think gold will enter a bubble later this decade – it probably won’t be until after 2024, so you have time to prepare. Consider physical metals and try to reduce stress. You may find our Premium educational metals portfolio helpful.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information visit here.

Tesla Stock Crash Targets $75.00

In my article, Will Tesla Stock Price Crash, I laid out the likelihood for a 50%+ decline. Tesla shares peaked just after the stock split, and the initial breakdown is underway. I don’t foresee a bottom until prices drop below $75.00 in 2021.

TSLA DAILY CHART: Tesla peaked just after the stock split, as I suspected. The initial crash is underway, and prices could test the 200-day MA (currently $182.94) before the next multi-week bounce. Longer-term, we expect prices to remain under pressure into 2021 and 2022 before prices carve out a bottom below $75.00.

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I am very bullish on Tesla longer-term and believe it could become the next Apple. Currently, I do not own the stock.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

 

Gold Forecast – Gold Pattern Supports A Breakdown Below $1900

The grinding consolidation in precious metals has been frustrating. Gold is working on a B-wave triangle that should break below $1900 within the next week or two. Our analysis remains on track for a 6-month low and subsequent buying opportunity by late September or early October.

Our Gold Cycle Indicator finished Thursday at 295. After peaking at 450 in August, it continues the descent toward cycle bottoming (green zone). The 6-month low should arrive once the value dips below 100 (currently 295).

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-GOLD- Gold continues to grind out a B-wave triangle before its decline towards $1750 – $1800. Technically, prices could bounce a little higher to tag the upper triangle boundary near $1985, but it’s not a requirement. Once the triangle is complete, prices should turn lower and break sharply below the $1900 level. I think $1750 is likely.

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-SILVER- Silver continues to consolidate. As with gold, I think it’s just a matter of time before prices break lower. Initial support at $22.50 and then around $19.00 if prices selloff sharply. I’m very bullish on silver long-term.

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-GDX- The morning gap higher failed, once again. Prices continue to make lower highs with each rebound, which should eventually lead to a sharp break below $39.00 later this month. My ideal target for a 6-month low remains between $31.00 – $33.00.

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-GDXJ- Juniors also failed to maintain its morning gap, and I continue to expect a breakdown below $54.00. Ideal target between $40.00 – $44.00.

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-SPY- The attempted rebound in stocks failed to regain the 10-day EMA (341.76), and I see the potential for an accelerated decline below 330. Initial target 300 with 285 (or lower) possible if we get another panic type liquidation.

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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Gold Forecast – Cycles Support a September Breakdown

Metals and miners continue to consolidate ahead of Friday’s employment report. Our cycle work supports a breakdown in gold below $1900 and a subsequent buying opportunity.

In my 2019 Metal Recap, I noted how record low gold eagle coin sales likely signaled a shift from record low demand to record high demand over the next decade. That forecast was timely as fear gripped the markets 3-months later, and coin sales skyrocketed.

Now I am beginning to think shortages and inadequate supply could send premiums on certain coins to unbelievable heights. For example, I believe 1-ounce silver eagles could fetch double the spot price, and possibly much higher as acquiring physical coins becomes difficult.

Current Gold Forecast

GOLDGold is consolidating in a B-wave triangle formation. Prices should break below $1900 in September and drop into the next 6-month low.

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SILVERSilver needs to break below $26.00 to trigger the decline phase of the intermediate-degree correction. Initial support arrives at $22.50 – and below that $19.00.

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GDX– I think miners are also working on a B-wave triangle that should eventually break lower into the next cycle low.

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GDXJ- Juniors need to slip below $54.00 to trigger an intermediate decline.

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SPY– This could be the beginning of the September weakness I’ve expected heading into the November elections. Closing below 335 would promote a test of the 300 level – a sharp correction could reach 285.

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The stock market should remain under pressure into November – expect increased volatility. The dollar should stabilize as gold declines.

Our gold cycle indicator finished Thursday at 298. It should continue to work its way lower and eventually dip below 100 (cycle bottoming) in September.

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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.