Gold Forecast – Gold Signals Potential Bottom Over Dismal August Jobs Report

The August employment report came in at just 235,000 jobs versus the expected 730,000 by economists. Gold jumped over the potential for a weakening economy and delayed Fed tapering. A sustained breakout above $1840 in September would be considered bullish.

GOLD FORECAST

GOLD LONG-TERM (MONTHLY): If we are in a similar circumstance to 2004, then a breakout above $2000 in 2022 would support a long-term target between $7500 or $9500 by 2028 to 2032.

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GOLD 4-HOUR CHART: Gold (currently $1824.50) jumped after the dismal employment report showing just 235,000 jobs created in August. To support a bullish breakout, prices would have to clear the $1840 area followed by the downtrend line currently near $1880. Dropping back below $1800 in September would promote more consolidation.

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GOLD MINERS (GDX) UPDATE

GDX DAILY (15-MONTH) CHART: If GDX stays above $33.00 in September, I see the potential for a Double Bottom (March/August 2021). An advance above $40.00 would confirm a bullish breakout and support new highs in 2022.

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GDX DAILY CLOSE-UP: Ending the week above $33.00 would be bullish. However, stiff resistance lies just ahead at $34.25 and then again near $37.00. Sustained upside may prove difficult without a significant increase in investment demand. I think as confidence wanes, gold should begin to respond positively.

On the Downside: Closing below today’s $32.50 gap anytime next week would be bearish and could trigger additional downside.

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COVID UPDATE

Our work continues to support an increase in Covid related infections (Delta Variant) into year-end 2021. If the 2020 pattern repeats – Covid should reemerge in the Mid-West (US) starting in September or October.

ISRAEL COVID DATA

Israel has over 60% of its population fully vaccinated, and daily cases are surging. The Delta variant is highly transmissible, and there have been multiple breakthrough cases. The death rate has remained low, but this is still very concerning.

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US DAILY CASES

Daily cases in the US are slowly rolling over just below the 200,000 level. It’s important to note that these cases are primarily in the southern states, including Florida and Texas. The trend is setting up for record cases into year-end that could reach over 400,000 per day, in my opinion.

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SUPPLY DISRUPTION or QUIET PANIC

Maybe it’s the slowly recovering supply chain, but I’m starting to see shortages (some limits) on basic supplies and bottled water in my area. Also, more people are choosing to wear masks in public. It could be nothing, but on the surface, it feels like the beginning of supply hoarding or perhaps a quiet-panic brewing beneath the surface.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GOLD FORECAST – Gold Prices Must Hold $1675 to Prevent a Breakdown

The intermediate cycle in gold (chart below) has formed turning points roughly every 128-calendar days (4.2-months). That cycle just turned again, triggering an intermediate low on August 9, 2021. Gold must now stay above that low to prevent a breakdown to the $1500 to $1550 area.

I’m long-term bullish on gold and believe the current correction is just a pause in a new bull market that should last into 2030.

KEY PRICE LEVELS

  • A sustained breakdown (more than a week) below $1670 would invite a retest of long-term support between $1500 and $1550.
  • Whereas a breakout above $1850 is needed to support the next leg higher in precious metals.

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The next cycle turning point (high or low) should arrive by mid-December 2021.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Forecast – Gold Finishes Strong After Collapsing Below $1700

Before we jump into the weekend, I wanted to mention the weekly chart of gold.

GOLD WEEKLY: A close above $1760 on Friday would create a bullish hammer and a potential Double Bottom. Upside follow-through above $1800 next week would promote an intermediate low with a breakout above $1920 required to confirm the next bull market advance.

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Note- A sustained breakdown below this week’s low ($1675) would support more weakness in precious metals and a possible dip to $1550 or lower in gold.

Our Gold Cycle Indicator hit ZERO on Tuesday, triggering a Portfolio Buy Signal. Currently, the GCI is sitting at 18.

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Covid Update

Our analysis supports a rigorous battle with Covid returning this Fall with a potential surge into precious metals as a store of safety. Watch for spiking demand in physical investment bars and coins as an early warning.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Forecast – Must Hold Bullish & Bearish Price Levels for Gold and Miners

Red Flag or Shakeout?

Some gold miners recently dipped below their June lows. Was that a red flag or a manufactured shakeout? Below are key levels I will be watching. If it was just a shakeout, then miners may be on the verge of a significant rally.

GDX DAILY: Thursday’s sharp down day in miners was either a red flag or a shakeout. A shakeout occurs as prices form a new uptrend – when bulls remain skittish. It forces weak longs to sell (puke-up) their positions just before the next rally. A close above $35.00 next week would support the shakeout theory. However, a close above $36.75 is needed to suggest a more meaningful advance.

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To support a more bearish outcome, GDX needs to close progressively below $33.00 and then below $30.00.

Note- Our metals portfolios recently bought gold miners and will continue to accumulate precious metal assets moving forward.

Gold Price Scenarios and Projections

GOLD MONTHLY VALUE: With the fundamental backdrop of endless budget deficits and record-setting monetary policy. I believe there is a 70% bullish case for gold (scenarios A & B) to continue higher into 2023 and 2024. I see a 20% neutral (scenario C), suggesting gold stays below $2000 a bit longer. Lastly, I see a 10% bearish outlook (scenario D) that could allow gold to dip back to $1175.

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Probabilities Below:

A) Gold bottomed in March 2021 at $1673.30. The renewed uptrend supports a $3000 price target by Q2 2023. I assign a 40% probability.

B) The correction in gold extends back to the $1575 level a forms a lasting bottom. Closing above $2000 would report a $3000 target by Q2 2024. I assign a 30% probability.

C) A monthly close below $1575 would recommend a deeper correction to the bull market breakout area surrounding $1375. In this scenario, I’d expect a retest of $2000 by 2024. I assign a 20% probability.

D) Gold fails to hold $1375, and prices fall all the way back to $1175 by Q4 2024. I assign a 10% probability.

In closing, with the price of just about every commodity on the planet near new highs and trending higher, I believe it is just a matter of time before precious metals resume their bull market trends.

The only way I see gold dropping back to $1000 or lower (as some are expecting) would require a massive deflationary shock. If that occurs, then everything will collapse in value, including an 80% decline in global stock markets. Either way, it may be wise to have some physical gold for deflation and some investment gold and miners for an inflationary shock wave.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

 

Gold Forecast – Investors Should Take Note of Gold’s Head & Shoulder Bottom

HEAD & SHOULDER BOTTOM

The 40-day cycle in gold bottomed last week as forecasted. The formation of the right shoulder appears complete. The multi-month bottoming pattern continues to make progress, with a breakout above the neckline ($1920) projected for August. The price objective upon a confirmed breakout is $2100 – $2200.

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Our Gold Cycle Indicator (GCI) dipped below zero and triggered a buy alert last Tuesday. Our Premium Metals Portfolio entered new positions in gold and silver miners at that time. The GCI is back above zero (currently 34).

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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Cycles Support a Bottom This Week

GOLD 4-HOUR CHART

Over the last several months, I’ve noted how gold tends to form medium-term highs/lows as we enter a new month. If that trend continues then gold should bottom within the next few days.

Cycle Note: The previous 40-day cycle bottomed on day 37 (three days early), so it’s possible this cycle (currently day 41) extends a few days to balance the series. Overall, I think the odds support a bottom in gold very soon.

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GOLD DAILY CHART

The Gold Cycle has been forming interim cycle high/lows approximately every 40-trading days. More recently, those turning points tend to arrive as we enter a new month. When you put it all together, technically speaking, I think we are very close to a low. The question is, where will prices go from there?

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To maintain a bullish footing, I need to see gold breakout above the June 1, 2021 high ($1919.20). Anything that falls short of that would promote more consolidation or an even deeper pullback.

Note: The oversold MFI (top indicator) also supports a near-term bottom.

SILVER CHART

Silver has been working on an ascending triangle consolidation for nearly a year. If prices maintain the lower boundary near $25.00, a breakout above $30.00 is favored. I like to think of these patens as coiled springs. When the energy is released – it can be explosive.

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In closing, I’ll remind everyone that gold is a form of financial insurance. The time to buy insurance is when it is cheap and when no one wants it. Once the disaster arrives – it is too late.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Gold Price Forecast: Gold Must Hold $1750 or Risk a Larger Breakdown

Our Gold Cycle Indicator finished at eight (8). If it sinks below zero, I will put the available funds to work in the Premium Metals Portfolio.

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GOLD DAILY

Gold formed a bullish engulfing candle on Monday. Prices need a strong close above $1800 to support a possible bottom. A continued breakdown below $1750 would promote a retest of the March lows and potentially lower.

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SILVER DAILY

Silver prices are constructing a multi-month ascending triangle. Prices need to hold support near $25.00 to maintain the structure. The pattern continues to favor an upside breakout above $30.00. On the bearish side, prices would have to break below $22.00 to recommend a more profound correction back towards support surrounding $19.00.

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PLATINUM

Platinum formed a swing low after testing support surrounding $1040. I’d like to see progressive closes back above $1100 to recommend a bottom. Otherwise, a continued breakdown below $1000 would support a drop back towards $800.

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GDX

Gold miners are trying to hold support surrounding $34.00. It would take a daily close above $35.10 to form a swing low. However, to recommend a bottom, I would need to see a decisive close above $37.00.

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SPY

Stocks reversed once again near the 50-day EMA and are rapidly approaching fresh highs. The trend looks exhausted, and we are overdue for a multi-week correction. At this point, it is more of a question of when and not if, in my opinion.

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BITCOIN DAILY CHART

Bitcoin dipped briefly below $30,000 to test critical support surrounding $28,000. This area must hold to maintain the potential for an advance to fresh highs (above $65,000) by year-end. A continued breakdown below $28,000 would confirm a new bear market in Bitcoin and subsequent crypto-winter.

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My Bitcoin analysis still supports one final rally towards $90,000 by year-end, but the crackdown in China and brewing regulatory pressures in the U.S. may prove overwhelming. Prices must hold $28,000.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Bitcoin Crash Update – Prices Holding Critical Support Near $28,000

Collapsing below $28,000 would be bearish and support a target near $10,000.

BITCOIN DAILY CHART: Bitcoin dipped briefly below $30,000 to test critical support surrounding $28,000. This area must hold to maintain the potential for an advance to fresh highs (above $65,000) by year-end. A continued breakdown below $28,000 would confirm a new bear market in Bitcoin and subsequent crypto-winter.

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BEARISH CASE: One could argue that Bitcoin is forming a bearish head and shoulder top. From a technical standpoint, the shoulders sit a little too low for my liking. Nevertheless, the pattern is symmetrical and warrants our attention. Prices need to hold the $28,000 level to prevent a waterfall collapse. The minimum target for this pattern would be $10,000 upon a confirmed breakdown.

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Though my work still supports one final rally towards $90,000 by year-end, the crackdown in China and brewing regulatory pressures in the U.S. may prove overwhelming.

Longer-term, I am bullish on complex distributed systems and blockchain technology but feel more advanced protocols with programmability (smart contracts) are better investment choices.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Forecast – Legitimate Breakdown or Post-Fed Fakeout?

As I write, gold is below the $1800 level, and I can feel panic in the air. Anyone overleveraged has either been stopped out or is seriously contemplating selling. This is exactly how bottoms form. The big trader’s (banks) run stops forcing the little guy to liquidate, thus creating excess liquidity to enter new positions. I have seen this happen hundreds of times.

KEY LEVELS

Is the current decline in gold a legitimate breakdown, or is this just another post-Fed fakeout? I’m guessing the latter, but we should know for more by Friday’s close. Below are the levels I will be monitoring.

GOLD DAILY FUTURES

Gold (currently $1784.70) is below the $1800 level after yesterday’s Fed announcement. If prices begin to stabilize over the next 24-hours and finish the week above $1800, then I think this was just a post-Fed fakeout. But if gold continues to weaken and finishes the week below $1775, then the breakdown is probably real, and we could be in for a more severe correction.

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I’m always skeptical of the price action surrounding a Fed decision. More times than not, short-term trends in precious metals reverse on or just after an announcement. And since gold has been correcting since the June 1st high ($1919.20), I think the odds are beginning to favor a near-term bottom.

On a positive note, silver prices are holding up well, relative to gold, and I continue to look for a breakout above $30.00 in July.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Gold Price Explodes Towards $1900 as Bitcoin Collapses

Despite an obvious breakout in precious metals – sentiment remains stubbornly bearish. Investors may still be shell-shocked from the decline that began last August.

The US dollar is rolling over and could test the January low (89.20) relatively soon. Breaking critical support could a sharp decline and become a tailwind for precious metals.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

-US DOLLAR- The US dollar (currently 89.79) is getting dangerously close to the January low of 89.20. A breakdown below 89 and then 88 would be incredibly bearish and could trigger a steep decline into August or September. If a breakdown is established, that would conceivably propel precious metals significantly higher.

 

-GOLD- Gold is above the intermediate trendline and cleared the 200-day moving average. Despite all this, interest in the sector remains low. I think the 8-month decline devastated sentiment. Currently, prices are coming into resistance around $1878. If they clear that, I think we could see $1900 to $1920 later this week. All-in-all, prices remain on track towards our $2000+ target by July or August.

 

-SILVER- Silver is above $28.00, and this is where I’d like to see the uptrend begin to accelerate. Prices remain on track for a breakout above $30.00.

 

-PLATINUM- Platinum continues an upward slanting consolidation. Prices need to close decisively above $1280 to register a breakout. Whereas a finish below $1180 could trigger a pullback back towards $1100.

 

-GDX- Miners jumped sharply Monday and are up nearly 30% from their March bottom. Surprisingly, sentiment remains bearish – I’m not sure why. Overall, we remain on track to test and likely exceed last year’s $45.54 high by July or August.

 

-GDXJ- Junior’s recaptured the 200-day MA, and the trend may finally begin to accelerate. I think a breakout in silver above $30.00 could send prices piercingly higher. Overall, I expect GDXJ to test and likely exceed last year’s $64.91 high.

 

-SILJ- The junior silver ETF is back above the $17.00 level and could be on the verge of a breakout. Target-wise, I think SILJ could run to $25.00 or higher if spot silver reaches our minimum target of $36.00.

 

The FOMC minutes come out today at 2:00 PM. I will be watching for inflation concerns.

In closing, gold miners should continue to lead and outperform gold over the coming weeks. Our Premium Metals Portfolio focuses on high-quality miners with excellent cash flow.

Near-term, I will be watching silver and platinum for a breakout to fresh highs. Their trends are primed and could explode higher.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here..

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin Price Update – Prices Should Find Support Around $30,000

The recent plunge appears almost over, and we see firm support surrounding $30,000. Our 2021 outlook expects new highs and an advance to $90,000+ by year-end.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Bitcoin collapsed below $40,000, triggering a waterfall of stop orders. The correction that began in April appears to be a standard ABC-style pullback. Prices should find support around $30,000 over the coming days. It would take a decisive break down below $24,000 to recommend a more ominous outcome. Overall, our work supports one more advance into late 2021 that could exceed $90,000.

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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Forecast – Gold Confirms Breakout Despite Stubbornly Bearish Sentiment

This leads me to believe the current rally in precious metals has a lot further to run, and gold may exceed our forecast for $2000 by August.

GOLD BOTTOMED IN MARCH

In my March gold update, I wrote: “I’m looking for a bottom this week between $1665 and $1685”. It turns out prices bottomed a few trading days later at $1673.30 and smack dab in the middle of our target window.

As bullish as I was at that time, I felt even stronger about gold miners, which were insanely undervalued. Regarding GDX, I stated, “If I’m correct and precious metals started a new multi-year bull market, then this might be the last time we see GDX near $30.00 for a very long time.” I went on to say, “The time to be greedy is when others are fearful; I think we are almost there in gold.” That turned out to be timely advice as gold bottomed shortly after.

BEARISH SENTIMENT

Sentiment towards precious metals reached rock bottom in March. Even some long-time members were inclined to throw in the towel. I have been through hundreds of gold cycles, and anytime emotions get that raw, I know a bottom is close. I find it most surprising that I continue to receive bearish pushback despite the obvious breakout. Like a large ship, I guess sentiment turns slowly.

GOLD DAILY

After forming a beautiful double bottom in March, gold has broken out above the 9-month trendline and recaptured the 200-day moving average. Prices could exceed $1900 in the coming days. The next 40-day low isn’t due until late June, so we see plenty of room for near-term upside. Overall, this cycle should test the $2000 area and perhaps extend to new all-time highs before peaking around August.

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GDX DAILY

Miners are leading gold higher and should extend above the 2020 high ($45.54) by July or August. Today’s robust 4.86% up day should be enough to shake any remaining bears.

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Our Gold Cycle Indicator is just emerging from maximum cycle bottoming, suggesting the current advance still has significant upside.

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In closing, gold miners should continue to lead and outperform gold over the coming weeks. Our Premium Metals Portfolio focuses on high-quality miners with excellent cash flow.

Near-term, I will be watching silver and platinum for a breakout to fresh highs. Their trends are primed and could explode higher.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For regular updates, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices Set to Soar Over Exploding Inflation Data

The Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% from a year ago, compared to economist’s estimate of 3.6%. The monthly increase blew away the forecasts of 0.3%, arriving at a blistering 0.8%. We have not seen numbers jump to this degree since 2009.

As inflation soars, real rates (Treasury yields minus inflation) will hurt bond and equity investors while benefiting hard assets like precious metals.

Our cycle work suggests gold formed a major low in March 2021, and prices are just beginning their next major advance. It is not too late to for long-term holdings – we prefer physical precious metals and view them as the original decentralized asset.

GOLD FUTURES DAILY: Gold is consolidating just below the intermediate trendline. A breakout above $1850 would be bullish and should trigger the next leg higher in the coming days. Prices would have to drop and close below $1800 to suggest a more profound pullback, which I view as highly unlikely given today’s data.

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GOLD BIG PICTURE: The big picture monthly chart of gold paints an incredibly bullish picture, in our opinion. After breaking out to new all-time highs last August, prices corrected back to the 20-month moving average. The last time we had a similar setup was in 2004. From here, our technical outlook anticipates a multi-year advance to a minimum target of $7500. However, given today’s monetary policy, a voyage to $10,000 or even $15,000 is not unreasonable by 2028 or 2030.

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Silver and platinum are also primed to explode higher over the coming weeks as inflation rages. Gold miners remain reasonably priced. Our Premium Metals Portfolio has been accumulating quality miners throughout the pullback and is well-positioned for this next advance.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Forecast – Soaring Inflation and a Collapsing Dollar to Fuel Gold’s Next Big Advance 

Companies were unable to fill entry-level positions as they compete with Federal unemployment benefits. Not working apparently still pays better than working for some Americans.

Companies continue to cite higher input costs and inflationary worries across all sectors of the economy. The next round of CPI (consumer price index) numbers comes out Wednesday.

SPIKING INFLATION

Note below the parabolic rise in lumber prices. Lumber per 110,000 board feet has rocketed from $259.80 in 2020 to $1,686.00. This is adding tremendous pressure to residential construction expenses.

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Source: Bloomberg

BIDDING WARS

Higher building costs, low housing inventory, and record low interest rates have created a perfect storm for skyrocketing housing prices. In some areas, housing has jumped 15% to 20% during the pandemic. I hear stories of bidding wars and prospective buyers offering anywhere from $50,000 to $100,000 over the asking price to secure a property.

Feeding these absurd price increases is unprecedented money printing. Below is a chart of the year-over-year change in the M2 money supply. In February 2021, it hit a record 27%.

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Source: Bloomberg

In my opinion, the inflation genie is out of the bottle, and there is little the Fed can do to stop it. As companies increase prices, consumers will become conditioned. Eventually, the psychological aspect of higher inflation and a collapsing dollar will prompt individuals to buy items today for fear of higher prices later. This is something we have not seen since the 1970s.

RAMPANT SPECULATION

Eventually, the speculation we currently see in cryptocurrencies will move to precious metals (hard assets). Last week, Dogecoin exceeded the market cap of General Motors. Unbelievable!

Dogecoin was literally created as a joke in 2013 – it has ZERO use but speculation. A few days ago, while I was getting an oil change, I overheard employees speculating how they were about to get rich off Dogecoin and how they would instantly quit their jobs. These are the types of conversations you overhear near a top.

Historically speaking, precious metals are hands-down the best long-term inflation hedge, especially silver.

TECHNICAL OUTLOK

US DOLLAR

After a brief bounce, the dollar reversed lower after testing the 50-day EMA. Prices closed below the short-term trendline, and we could be on the verge of a major breakdown. Dropping below the January low (89.17) could trigger a collapse back to the 80 levels by August.

GOLD

Gold broke decisively above the $1800 level, and prices are poised for a sharp advance as the dollar collapses to fresh lows. Initially, we expected a retest of the $2000 level, but prices could surge to new highs if the dollar slips to 80 as forecasted. The 40-day cycle bottomed precisely with our outlook.

SILVER

Silver Prices are rising slowly out of the 8-month cup-with-handle formation. I’d like to see the uptrend begin to accelerate over the coming weeks and mount another assault on the $30.00 price level. Ultimately, I’m looking for a breakout above $30.00 and a run to multi-year highs before the next intermediate cycle peaks sometime in August.

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Expect increased volatility as we determine the fallout over the recent cyberattack on the U.S. oil pipeline.

A much higher than expected CPI number could light a fire under precious metals.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices Breaking Out Above $1800 Confirming Next Up leg

Gold is above $1800 and confirmed last week’s outlook for a crucial 40-day cycle low. Prices remain on track for a retest of the $2000 level by July. The next 40-day low is not due until late June, so we see plenty of room for upside near-term.

GOLD FUTURES DAILY: The mid-term gold cycle bottomed on day 37, and prices are just 5-days into a new upswing. With futures clearly above $1800, the uptrends in metals in mines should begin to accelerate.

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Note- The 40-day cycle in gold bottomed on day 37 – slightly early but not surprising given the previous cycle extended to 41-days. On average, we see cyclical turning points about every 39-days.

GOLD MINERS (GDX): After an agonizing 7-month decline, gold miners formed a major bottom in March. In fact, we believe GDX may never return to the $30.00 level again for the remainder of this 10-year bull market.

Currently, miners are attacking the April high ($36.83) and the all-important 200-day MA ($36.99). Once prices push above $37.00, then I think there is a good chance shorts will begin to cover, and we could get the 5%+ bullish recognition day I’ve been expecting. Prices overwhelmingly confirmed last week’s 40-day cycle low, and we are only 4-days into a new upcycle.

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bullish recognition day is when the market suddenly acknowledges a trend change. Traders that were still looking lower get caught on the wrong side and frantically begin to cover. In GDX, this usually looks like a robust 5%+ up day on big volume.

We see tremendous value in high-quality gold producers. These miners are minting money (real money – not Dogecoin) and are incredibly undervalued, in our opinion. Our favorite producer currently is Kirkland Lake.

Silver and platinum are also primed and could explode higher over the coming weeks. Our Premium Metals Portfolio has been accumulating quality miners throughout the pullback and is well-positioned for this next advance.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Forecast – Gold Bottomed as Forecasted and Sets Sights on $1800

Gold bottomed last week in line with our 40-Day Cycle Forecast.

THE 40-DAY GOLD CYCLE: Below you will see gold switched from cycle highs every 40-days (red arrows) to forming cycle lows (green arrows) at the March bottom. We just completed the first 40-day low in a new upcycle, and the trend is set to accelerate once gold retakes $1800.

The 40-day cycle in gold bottomed last week on day 37. Slightly early but not surprising given the previous cycle extended to 42-days. The next 40-day low isn’t due until late June, so there is plenty of room for upside. Overall, gold should climb its way back to test the $2000 level by July or August.

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GOLD MINERS (GDX): The 40-day cycle bottomed in line with our expectations. The next low isn’t due until late June, so we have plenty of room to run. I’d like to see a bullish recognition day in miners sometime this week. That will likely occur when gold convincingly retakes $1800. Overall, miners should test and perhaps reach fresh highs in the coming weeks.

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Note- A bullish recognition day is when the market collectively acknowledges a trend change. Traders looking for lower prices exit shorts and immediately switch to longs. In GDX, this usually looks like a robust 5%+ up day on big volume.

It’s not too late to position for the next leg higher in precious metals. We are only on day one of a new 40-day cycle. Silver and miners have the most near-term potential, in our opinion.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

Gold Forecast – Gold Price Approaching Crucial 40-day Low

After bottoming in March, gold is dropping into its first 40-day low. Prices should stabilize in the coming days and start the next leg higher in May. Overall, we see gold retesting $2000 by July or August.

The price action in metals and miners is often tumultuous surrounding a Fed announcement. Gold initially reacted higher on Wednesday only to slip to fresh lows the following day. Our cycle work supports a bottom any day now and renewed uptrend starting in May.

THE 40-DAY CYCLE IN GOLD:  In the chart below, you will see how gold switched from making cycle highs every 40-days (downtrend) to making cycle lows (uptrend) at the March bottom. Today marks the 38th trading day since the March low, and we should be nearing the next base. We expect gold to break above $1800 by mid-May and ultimately retest the $2000 level by July or August.

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GOLD MINERS CONFIRMING: The gold mining ETF GDX has also adhered to a similar 40-day cycle. Thursday marked day 40, and a low is possible (miners often lead gold). Overall, we view this as a natural correction in a growing uptrend. Our Premium Metals Portfolio is long quality gold stocks and continues to accumulate on pullbacks.

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The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at four (4). We remain within cycle bottoming and the beginning phases of an emerging uptrend.

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In summary, it is not too late to position for the next leg higher in metals and miners – the current uptrend is just beginning, in our opinion.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Gold Forecast – March Bottom Signals New Multi-Month Advance

On March 5th, I penned an article titled: Gold Price Forecast – A Rare Post Crisis Buying Opportunity. Prices bottomed 3-days later and just below our $1675 target. We believe a new uptrend is just beginning. Below is a copy of our most recent gold report.

FRIDAY GOLD FORECAST APRIL 23, 2021

As the inflation numbers tick up into May, the rallies in metals and miners should gain momentum. Our work supports an advance in gold to $2000+ by July or August. Gold miners continue to offer more upside, in our opinion.

The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 12. A new upcycle is just beginning and could last several months. Our Educational Metals Portfolio is overweight gold miners.

 

GOLD– As long as gold holds above the $1750 level, I think the surprises will come to the upside. Gold probably needs to take out $1800 to spark the next multi-day advance. I continue to look for a retest of the $2000 level by July or August.

 

-SILVER Silver is trying to recapture the contentious $26.00 level. As long as prices stay above $24.50, I continue to expect a breakout above $30.00. I’ll better estimate targets once we see the magnitude of the breakout.

 

PLATINUM Platinum remains stuck in consolidation and needs to break above $1260 or below $1140 for direction. Ultimately, I expect higher prices.

 

-GDX- I continue to believe miners formed an important bottom in March 2021. The trend remains a bit hesitant. Gold may have to rally above $1800 to trigger the 5%+ bullish recognition day I’ve been awaiting. As long as prices stay above $34.50, the path of least resistance looks higher.

 

-GDXJ- It’s been two steps forward and one step back since the March low. Prices need to get back above the 200-day MA to summon a more robust advance. If silver breaks sharply above $30.00 as expected, I think we could see new highs by July/August.

 

-KL- Kirkland Lake Gold remains my favorite producer. I think prices reached an important bottom in March. As long as prices stay above $37.00, I think they will head back towards $50.00+. This is one stock I plan on holding for several years.

 

-NEM- As long as Newmont stays above $63.00, I believe prices should head to new highs.

 

-SILJ- The cup-with-handle pattern in the silver junior mining ETF is a bit busy and less clear due to its volatility. Nevertheless, I believe prices bottomed, and as long as they stay above $14.50, I expect new highs.

 

-PTON- There was a little confusion regarding the chart of Peloton. I’m only using it as an illustration for a head and shoulder topping pattern. Though it could signal a broader decline in the stock market, I’m not suggesting a short. I thought the pattern was exceptional and wanted to share it with members. A definitive close below $95.00 would signal a pattern breakdown and support a downside target of $50.00.

 

-XLE- Energy stocks are trying to hold support surrounding $47.00. The odds favor a breakdown and decline towards $40.00 to $44.00.

Markets may remain subdued before next week’s Fed announcement. Overall, prices are behaving as expected coming out of the March lows.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Miners Supporting a Breakout in Precious Metals

After a prolonged decline, gold miners are finally showing signs of strength. The charts below support an immediate breakout and renewed uptrend. This dovetails nicely with our Gold Forecast supporting a return to $2000 by August.

GOLD MINING ETF (GDX): I believe gold miners formed a bottom in March. If correct, prices should stairstep their way back towards the $45.00 level and potentially to new highs by August.

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NEWMONT (NEM): We are getting a robust move in Newmont above the March high and intermediate trendline. By all measures, it looks like a breakout. Prices could reach new all-time highs as soon as May.

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FRANCO-NEVADA (FNV): Franco-Nevada was the first to break above the March high. Prices are above the 200-day MA after forming the small bull flag. The trend should continue back towards the $160 level and new all-time highs.

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KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD (KL): Kirkland Lake Gold is my favorite gold producer and could have significant free cash flow in 2021. They have zero debt and $850 million in cash. Prices formed a picture perfect W-bottom in March and are breaking out as I write. This is my highest conviction holding; I am significantly overweight.

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Our Gold Cycle Indicator is at its most bullish reading (ZERO). Our Educational Portfolio has been buying miners aggressively. I believe it is well-positioned for the next advance. 

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 We recently updated our Top 10 Speculative Gold Stocks. Several companies have gold in the ground selling for just $10 per ounce. For more updates, please visit here.

Disclosure: I am long all the stocks mentioned in this article.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Forecast – Double Bottom Breakout Supports $2000 Gold by August

Gold entered a prolonged correction after reaching new all-time highs in 2020. The double bottom in March looks complete, and we expect a multi-month advance and retest of the $2000 level by August.

If you’re new to precious metals, gold investors need to have nerves of steel. Corrections in this space are trying events due to duration and severity. The last 8-months was no exception. If you are still standing – congratulations!

Gold Forecast Near-Term

Gold is confirming a double bottom breakout, and prices should begin to stairstep their way back towards the $2000 level, possibly by August. I continue to see deep value in gold miners and believe they will outperform metal prices moving forward.

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Gold Forecast Long-Term

Below is the Monthly Gold chart. Gold broke out of a 6-year base and confirmed a new bull market in 2019. Prices have pulled back to the 20-month moving average (first test in a new bull market). The last time this setup occurred was in 2004.

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Later this decade, we believe gold will reach $8500+ with a real chance of exceeding $10,000 if governments continue with their experiments with modern monetary theory.

Our Gold Cycle Indicator is at its most bullish reading (ZERO) and the Premium Educational Portfolio has been buying miners aggressively. I believe it is well-positioned for the next advance.

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We recently updated our Top 10 Speculative Gold Stocks. Several companies have gold in the ground selling for just $10 per ounce. For more updates, please visit here.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.