Bitcoin and Ripple’s XRP Weekly Technical Analysis – August 3rd, 2020

Bitcoin

Bitcoin rallied by 11.11% in the week ending 2nd August. Following on from a 7.77% gain from the previous week, Bitcoin ended the week at $11,053.8.

It was a bullish week for Bitcoin and the broader market. Bitcoin slipped to a Monday intraweek low $9,944.9 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $9,339, Bitcoin rallied to a Sunday intraweek high $12,097.0.

Bitcoin broke through the week’s major resistance levels before sliding back to sub-$11,000 levels.

Bitcoin fell back through the third major resistance level at $11,835 and the second major resistance level at $10,800.

Steering well clear of the first major support level at $9,339, however, Bitcoin broke back through the first major resistance level.

5 days in the green that included an 11.01% rally on Monday and 4.01% gain on Saturday delivered the upside for the week. A 6.36% slide on Sunday reversed some of the gains, however.

For the week ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through $11,032 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $12,119 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from last week’s high $12,097.

Barring another extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Bitcoin could take a run at the second major resistance level at $13,184.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $11,032 pivot would bring support levels into play.

Barring a broad-based sell-off, Bitcoin should avoid sub-$10,500 levels and the first major support level at $9,967.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.87% to $11,150.0. A mixed start to the week saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $10,943 before rising to a high $11,200 on Monday.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

BTC/USD 03/08/20 Weekly Chart

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP surged by 33.50% in the week ending 2nd August. Following on from a 7.8% gain from the previous week, Ripple’s XRP ended the week at $0.28764.

A mixed start to the week saw Ripple’s XRP fall to a Monday intraweek low $0.20949 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.19669, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a Sunday intraweek high $0.32620.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the major resistance levels sliding back to sub-$0.25 levels.

The pullback saw Ripple’s XRP fall through the third major resistance level at $0.27739 and the second major resistance level at $0.24422.

Finding late support, however, Ripple’s XRP broke back through the second major resistance level to end the week at $0.28 levels.

6-days in the green that included a 12.01% rally on Saturday delivered the upside for the week.

For the week ahead

Ripple’s XRP would need to avoid a fall through the $0.27434 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.33950.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from last week’s high $0.32620.

Barring another extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, the second major resistance level at $0.39135 and $0.40 levels could come into play.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.27434 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.22249 into play.

Barring an extended broader-market sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer of sub-$0.24 levels in the week.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 2.59% to $0.29510. A mixed start to the week saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early Monday low $0.28383 before rising to a high $0.29958.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

XRP/USD 03/08/20 Daily Chart

The COVID-19 Stimulus Package and Manufacturing PMIs Put the Dollar and EUR in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning.  The Japanese Yen and the Aussie Dollar were in action, with economic data from China also in focus.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 and the U.S stimulus package continued to be an area of focus.

Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers

According to figures at the time of writing, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 249,532 to 18,231,469 on Sunday. On Saturday, the number of new cases had risen by 250,087. The daily increase was lower than Saturday’s rise while up from 213,347 new cases from the previous Sunday.

Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 623 new cases on Sunday, which was down from 707 new cases on Saturday. On the previous Saturday, 663 new cases had been reported.

From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 50,702 to 4,813,647 on Sunday. On Saturday, the total number of cases had increased by 60,171. On Sunday, 26th July, a total of 56,130 new cases had been reported.

For the Japanese Yen

Finalized GDP numbers for the 1st quarter remained unchanged from 2nd estimates. In the 1st quarter, the Japanese economy contracted by 0.6%, following a 1.9% contraction in the 4th quarter.

On an annualized basis, the economy contracted by 2.2%, which was also in line with 2nd estimates. In the 4th quarter, the economy had contracted by 7.3%.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥105.858 to ¥105.844 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.07% to ¥105.90 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Aussie Dollar

The AIG Manufacturing Index rose from 51.5 to 53.5 in July.

According to the July Survey,

  • The sector expanded for a 2nd consecutive month, a first since October of last year.
  • The food & beverage and machinery & equipment sectors delivered much-needed support in the month.
  • In spite of the expansion, there was continued weakness across the other sectors.
  • Production, employment, supplier deliveries, and finished stocks expanded at a faster rate than in June, however.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71412 to $0.71423 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.14% to $0.7133.

Out of China

In July, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.2 to 52.8. Economists had forecast a rise to 51.3.

According to the July survey,

  • New business from overseas fell at the slowest rate in 6-months, as new orders rose at the quickest pace since Jan-11.
  • Companies also reported the quickest expansion in output since January 2011.
  • Output expanded for a 5th consecutive month, driven by greater client demand as the economic recovery gathered pace.
  • Manufacturers ramped up their buying activity, the rate of expansion the most marked in seven-and-a-half years.
  • In spite of a rise in backlogs and new orders, firms cut staffing levels again in July.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71303 to $0.71366 upon release of the figures.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.02% to $0.6630.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include July manufacturing PMI figures for Spain and Italy.

Finalized manufacturing PMIs are also due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

Barring a marked revision to Germany’s numbers, we would expect Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs to have the greatest impact.

Following some quite dire 2nd quarter GDP numbers last week, a further pickup in manufacturing sector activity would be welcome.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.07% to $1.1770.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. July’s finalized manufacturing PMI is due out later this morning.

Barring any revisions, however, the PMI should have a muted impact on the Pound.

Chatter on Brexit and market risk sentiment will influence, as will updates on the latest COVID-19 outbreak.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.02% to $1.3088.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. July’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and finalized Markit Manufacturing PMI figures are due out.

Expect the ISM figures to have the greatest impact on the day. The employment and new orders sub-indexes will likely garner plenty of interest.

Away from the calendar, the focus will remain on Capitol Hill and the progress of the COVID-19 stimulus package.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.16% to 93.499.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and the PMI numbers on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.03% to C$1.3408 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

European Equities: Economic Data and the U.S Stimulus Bill in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Monday, 3rd August

Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

Italian Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

French Manufacturing PMI (Jul) Final

German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) Final

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul) Final

Wednesday, 5th August

Spanish Services PMI (Jul)

Italian Services PMI (Jul)

French Services PMI (Jul) Final

German Services PMI (Jul) Final

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Jul) Final

Eurozone Services PMI (Jul) Final

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

Thursday, 6th August

German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun)

IHS Markit Construction PMI (Jul)

Friday, 7th August

German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)

German Trade Balance (Jun)

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q2)

The Majors

It was another bearish day for the European majors on Friday, with the CAC40 sliding by 1.43% to lead the way. The DAX30 and EuroStoxx600 weren’t far behind, with losses of 0.54% and 0.89% respectively.

Negative sentiment towards the economic outlook weighed as the markets responded further to dire 2nd quarter GDP numbers.

The disappointing figures together with the upward trend in new COVID-19 cases continued to raise doubts over a speedy economic recovery.

In the week, Spain and the UK were amongst countries having to reintroduce containment measures.

The negative sentiment ultimately overshadowed upbeat tech earnings results on the day.

The Stats

It was another busy day on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats included 2nd quarter GDP from France and the Eurozone. June retail sales figures from France and Germany and Eurozone and member state prelim inflation figures were also in focus.

It was the GDP numbers that weighed, however. In the 2nd quarter, the French economy contracted by 13.8%, with the Eurozone economy contracting by 12.1%.

German retail sales rose by 5.9% in June, following a 12.7% jump in May, with French consumer spending up by 9.0%. In May, French consumer spending had surged by 37.4%.

While both sets of numbers came in ahead of forecasts there were not good enough to shift the mood.

From the U.S

Economic data included June’s personal spending and inflation figures. While inflationary pressures eased, personal spending was on the rise at the end of the quarter.

The increase was not enough to ease concerns over the U.S economic outlook, however.

Personal spending rose by 5.6%, while the annual rate of inflation softened from 1.0% to 0.90% In May, personal spending had jumped by 8.5%.

Late in the European session, finalized consumer sentiment figures were revised down, adding to the market angst.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was another particularly bearish day for the auto sector on Friday. Continental and Volkswagen slid by 5.00% and by 4.39% to lead the way down. BMW and Daimler saw more modest losses of 3.85% and 3.67% respectively.

Volkswagen continued to struggle after having reported an operating loss for the 1st half and a dividend cut on Thursday.

It was a mixed day for the banks, however. While Deutsche Bank fell by 0.38%, Commerzbank rose by 1.02%.

From the CAC, it was another bearish day for the banks. Soc Gen and Credit Agricole both fell by 1.43%, with BNP Paribas falling by 0.77%.

It was a more bearish day for the French auto sector. While Peugeot slid by 3.19%, Renault tumbled by a further 7.86% following a 9.26% slide on Thursday.

Air France-KLM joined the broader pack, falling by 2.35%, with Airbus SE ending the day down by 2.10%

On the VIX Index

It was a back into the red for the VIX on Friday. Partially reversing a 2.74% gain from Thursday, the VIX fell by 1.21% to end the day at 24.46.

The downside came as the U.S equity markets brushed off dire economic data in response to positive tech earnings results.

The S&P500 and NASDAQ rose by 0.77% and by 1.49% respectively, with the Dow gaining 0.44%.

VIX 03/08/20 Daily Chart

 

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats July manufacturing PMIs from Italy and Spain.

Finalized PMIs are also due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

While the markets will focus on Germany’s numbers, expect Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs to also influence.

From the U.S

The markets preferred ISM Manufacturing PMI and finalized Market Manufacturing PMI figures are due out.

Expect the ISM survey figures to have the greatest impact on the markets.

Away from the economic calendar, corporate earnings, and updates from Capitol Hill on the passage of the COVID-19 stimulus package will also influence.

From the weekend, COVID-19 updates were negative, however, which will test the markets early on.

The Latest Coronavirus Figures

According to figures at the time of writing, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 249,532 to 18,231,469 on Sunday. On Saturday, the number of new cases had risen by 250,087. The daily increase was lower than Saturday’s rise while up from 213,347 new cases from the previous Sunday.

Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 623 new cases on Sunday, which was down from 707 new cases on Saturday. On the previous Saturday, 663 new cases had been reported.

From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 50,702 to 4,813,647 on Sunday. On Saturday, the total number of cases had increased by 60,171. On Sunday, 26th July, a total of 56,130 new cases had been reported.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the DAX was up by 7.5 points, while the Dow was down by 45 points. A pickup in manufacturing sector activity in China provided the DAX with support ahead of the open.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Litecoin, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – August 3rd, 2020

Litecoin

Litecoin slid by 8.02% on Sunday. Reversing a 6.01% rally from Saturday, Litecoin ended the week up by 17.95% to $56.77.

It was a mixed start to the day. Litecoin rallied to an early morning intraday high $65.31 before hitting reverse.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $63.51 before tumbling to an early morning intraday low $52.70.

The second major resistance level at $65.29 capped the upside in the early morning.

Litecoin fell through the first major support level at $58.79 and the second major support level at $55.85.

Avoiding sub-$55 support levels, Litecoin briefly revisited $59 levels before falling back through the first and second major support levels.

A late move back through the second major support level reduced the deficit on the day.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 0.93% to $57.30. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to an early morning low $55.72 before striking a high $57.60.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early in the day.

LTC/USD 03/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move through the $58.26 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $63.82.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break back through to $60 levels.

Barring another crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to move through the $58.26 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $54 and the first major support level at $51.21 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$50 levels. The second major support level sits at $45.65.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $51.21

First Major Resistance Level: $63.82

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $54

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $78

62% FIB Retracement Level: $104

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen slid by 4.85% on Sunday. Partially reversing a 10.76% rally from Saturday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the week up by 3.29% to $0.10265.

A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning intraday high $0.11585 before hitting reverse.

Stellar’s Lumen broke through the first major resistance level at $0.11191 before sliding to an early morning intraday low $0.090025.

The reversal saw Stellar’s Lumen fall through the first major support level at $0.10029 and the second major support level at $0.092920 and 23.6% FIB of $0.0928.

Finding support, Stellar’s Lumen briefly revisited $0.1075 levels before falling back through the first major support level to sub-$0.10 levels.

Finding late support, however, Stellar’s Lumen moved back through the first major support level to reduce the deficit.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was up by 2.21% to $0.10492. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to an early morning low $0.10199 before striking a high $0.10573.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLM/USD 03/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to avoid a fall back through the $0.10284 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.11566.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break back through to $0.11 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely limit any upside.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $0.0.10284 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.08983 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Stellar’s Lumen should steer of sub-$0.090 levels on the day.

The 23.6% FIB of $0.09280 should limit any downside on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.08983

First Major Resistance Level: $0.11566

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.09960

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.14336518

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2050

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX slid by 7.24% on Sunday. Reversing a 3.92% gain from Saturday, Tron’s TRX ended the week up by 2.29% to $0.019013.

Tracking the broader market, Tron’s TRX rallied to an early morning intraday high $0.021237 before hitting reverse.

Coming up against the first major resistance level at $0.02101, Tron’s TRX tumbled to an early intraday low $0.017800.

Tron’s TRX fell through the first major support level at $0.01969 and the second major support level at $0.01892.

Steering clear of the third major support level at $0.01760, Tron’s TRX revisited $0.01960 levels before sliding back.

The first major support level pinned Tron’s TRX back.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was up by 1.90% to $0.019375. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning low $0.018847 before rising to a high $0.019375.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRX/USD 03/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to avoid a fall back through the $0.01935 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.02090.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break out back through to $0.020 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $0.01935 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $0.01746 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should avoid a return to sub-$0.018 levels on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.01746

First Major Resistance Level: $0.02090

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0322

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0452

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0663

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – August 3rd, 2020

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, slid by 6.36% on Sunday. Reversing a 4.01% rally from Saturday, Bitcoin ended the week up by 11.11% to $11,053.8.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $12,097 before hitting reverse.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $12,022.8 before sliding to an early morning intraday low $10,548.0.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $11,406.8 and the second major support level at $11,008.9.

Steering clear of the third major support level at $10,392.9, Bitcoin briefly revisited $11,300 levels before easing back.

Bitcoin broke back through the second major support level to limit the loss on the day.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest move through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a bearish day on Sunday.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (-11.53%), Bitcoin Cash SV (-11.14%), EOS (-10.93%) led the way down.

Cardano’s ADA (-7.16%), Litecoin (-8.02%), and Tron’s TRX (-7.24%) also saw heavy losses

Binance Coin (-3.10%), Ethereum (-3.92%), Monero’s XMR (-5.16%), Ripple’s XRP (-1.25%), Stellar’s Lumen (-4.85%), and Tezos (-4.89%) saw relatively modest losses on the day.

While it was a bearish Sunday, it was a mixed week.

Ripple’s XRP rallied by 33.5% to lead the way.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+13.82%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+15.09%), Ethereum (+19.52%), and Litecoin (+17.95%) also found strong support.

Binance Coin (+7.10%), EOS (+8.23%), Monero’s XMR (+8.71%), Stellar’s Lumen (+3.29%), and Tron’s TRX (+2.29%) trailed the front runners.

Cardano’s ADA (-9.99%) and Tezos (-3.19%) bucked the trend in the week, however.

In the week, the crypto total market cap rose from a Monday low $284.79bn to a Sunday high $362.06bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $331.14bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Tuesday high 64.58% before sliding to a Sunday low 61.66%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 62.07.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.69% to $11,130.5. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $10,943.0 before rising to a high $11,169.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a bullish start to the day. Stellar’s Lumen was up by 2.46%, at the time of writing, to lead the way.

BTC/USD 03/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the $11,233 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $11,918.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from $11,500 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a crypto breakout, Bitcoin could eye the second major resistance level at $12,782.

Failure to move through the $11,233 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $10,369 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$10,500 levels on the day.

 

EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – August 3rd, 2020

EOS

EOS slid by 10.93% on Sunday. Reversing a 6.71% gain from Saturday, EOS ended the week up by 8.23% to $2.9409.

It was a choppy start to the day. EOS rose to an early morning intraday high $3.4852 before hitting reverse.

EOS broke through the first major resistance level at $3.4029 before tumbling to an early morning intraday low $2.4884.

The sell-off saw EOS slide through the day’s major support levels before briefly revisiting $3.0 levels.

EOS moved back through the third major support level at $2.7121 and the second major support level at $2.9748.

It was a bearish 2nd half of the day, however. EOS fell back through the second major support level to end the day in the deep red.

At the time of writing, EOS was up by 0.75% to $2.9631. A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to an early morning low $2.9022 before rising to a high $2.9631.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOS/USD 03/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to move through the $2.9715 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $3.4546.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break back through to $3.40 levels.

Barring another extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to move through the $2.9715 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2.4578 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, EOS should steer well clear of the second major support level at $1.9747.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2.4578

Pivot Level: $2.9715

First Major Resistance Level: $3.4546

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.62

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.76

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.82

Ethereum

Ethereum fell by 3.92% on Sunday. Partially reversing an 11.69% rally from Saturday, Ethereum ended the week up by 19.52% to $371.21.

Tracking the broader market, Ethereum rallied to an early morning intraday high $415.00 before hitting reverse.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $406.35 before tumbling to an early morning intraday low $325.75.

The selloff saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level at $356.1 before finding support.

More significantly, Ethereum also fell through the 38.2% FIB of $367 before the partial recovery.

Ethereum moved back through to $389 levels before falling back to end the day at sub-$380.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 1.00% to $375.93. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning low $366.34 before rising to a high $376.63.

While leaving the major support and resistance levels untested, Ethereum found support at the 38.2% FIB of $367 early on.

ETH/USD 03/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the $371 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $416.22.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out form Saturday’s high $415.00.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level should cap any upside.

A fall through the $371 pivot would bring the first major support level at $326.97 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer well clear of the second major support level at $281.74.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $326.97

Pivot Level: $371

First Major Resistance Level: $416.22

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP fell by 1.25% on Sunday. Following a 12.06% rally on Saturday, Ripple’s XRP ended the week up by 33.50% to $0.28764.

A bullish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $0.3262 before hitting reverse.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the first major resistance level at $0.3071 and the second major resistance level at $0.3233.

The reversal saw Ripple’s XRP slide through the first major support level at $0.2653 to an intraday low $0.24158.

Steering clear of sub-$0.24 support levels, Ripple’s XRP revisited $0.30 levels before falling back into the red.

In spite of the bearish day, Ripple’s XRP moved back through the first major support level to limit the loss.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 2.95% to $0.29612. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning low $0.28383 before rising to a high $0.29661.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRP/USD 03/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall through the $0.2851 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.3287.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Saturday’s high $0.3262.

Barring another broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level should cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ripple’s XRP could make a run at the second major resistance level at $0.0.3698.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.2851 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2441 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should avoid sub-$0.24 levels, however.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.24441

Pivot Level: $0.2851

First Major Resistance Level: $0.3287

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

The Week Ahead – COVID-19, Economic Data and US Politics in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar, with 59 stats in focus in the week ending 7th August. In the week prior, just 57 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

It’s another busy week ahead on the economic data front.

In the 1st half, the ISM’s July private sector PMIs, ADP nonfarm employment change figures, and June factory orders are in focus.

We would expect Wednesday’s ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ADP Nonfarm Employment Change to have the greatest impact.

The focus will then to Thursday’s initial jobless claims and Friday’s nonfarm payroll numbers and unemployment rate.

Following some disappointing weekly jobless claims figures and the rise in COVID-19 cases, the labor market figures will be key.

For the service sector, any contraction in July, following a jump in productivity in June, would also weigh on riskier assets.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 1.15% to 93.349.

For the EUR:

It’s also another busy week ahead on the economic data front.

On Monday and Wednesday, July’s manufacturing and services PMIs are due out of Italy and Spain.

Finalized PMIs are also due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

With Spain seeing a spike in new COVID-19 cases, expect some attention to the PMIs. Ultimately, however, the Eurozone’s services and composite will likely have the greatest impact.

The focus will then shift German factory orders for June, due out on Thursday.

At the end of the week, Germany remains in focus, with June’s industrial production and trade figures due out.

Barring disappointing numbers, June retail sales figures for the Eurozone should have a muted impact on Thursday.

The EUR/USD ended the week up by 1.05% to $1.1778.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar. July’s finalized private sector PMIs are due out and will garner plenty of interest.

Expect any downward revision to the Services PMI on Wednesday to have the greatest impact.

On Thursday, the focus will then shift to the BoE. More action is expected and the Bank may consider an extension to the suspension of banks paying dividends and buybacks.

While the BoE is in action, we can also expect any further updates on Brexit to also influence in the week.

The GBP/USD ended the week up by 2.27% to $1.3085.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

On Wednesday, June’s trade figures are due out ahead of July employment numbers on Friday.

Expect the employment figures to have the greatest impact, however.

Barring dire numbers, the Ivey PMI for July should have a muted impact on the Loonie on Friday.

Away from the stats, COVID-19 and geopolitics will continue to influence crude oil prices and risk sentiment.

The Loonie ended the week up by 0.02% to C$1.3412 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead for the Aussie Dollar.

At the start of the week, the Manufacturing Index figures are due out ahead of a busy Tuesday.

We would expect manufacturing PMIs from China, the EU, and the U.S to have a greater impact, however, on Monday.

The focus will then shift June trade and retail sales figures due out on Tuesday. Expect the retail sales figures to have the greatest impact. The RBA continues to rely on consumer spending to support the economy. Weak numbers will be a test for the Aussie Dollar.

For the week, however, the main event is the RBA monetary policy decision on Tuesday.

Following the spike in new COVID-19 cases, will the RBA remain optimistic about the economic recovery?\

Any dovish chatter and the Aussie Dollar could eye sub-$0.70 levels. At the end of the week, the RBA’s statement on monetary policy will also draw interest.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 0.53% to $0.7143.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s another quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

2nd quarter employment figures are due out on Wednesday. The markets will likely be forgiving to an extent, with COVID-19 expected to have an impact on employment.

With economic data on the lighter side, private sector PMIs from China, the EU, and the U.S will influence.

Expect geopolitics and COVID-19 news to also have an impact in the week. Any signs of a slowdown in new cases globally and expect support to kick in.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 0.18% to $0.6629.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

Finalized 2nd quarter GDP and July’s manufacturing PMI numbers are due out on Monday.

The focus will then shift to July’s service PMI on Wednesday and June household spending figures on Friday.

While the stats will influence sentiment towards BoJ monetary policy, the Yen will remain at the mercy of COVID-19 and geopolitics.

The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.29% to ¥105.83 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.

July’s private sector PMIs are due out on Monday and Wednesday. Expect the figures to influence risk appetite in the week.

On Friday, July trade figures will also garner plenty of attention. While exports remain the main area of focus, any sizeable fall in imports would test risk appetite on the day.

Away from the economic calendar, any chatter from Beijing will also need monitoring.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up 0.62% to CNY6.9752 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

UK Politics:

Brexit will remain in focus. Talks are set to continue through August and September ahead of an EU Summit in October.

60 days may sound like a lot but when considering the lack of progress over 4-years…

A light economic calendar and Brexit chatter have provided the Pound with support. We may even see the markets brush off the chances of a hard Brexit.

Getting on with it seems to be the key desire now rather than dragging it out any longer. Either way, we’re not expecting Johnson and the team to give too much away…

U.S Politics:

Last week, the Republicans showed signs of fragmentation. As Presidential Election stress builds, we could see more fractures as Trump attempts to distract voters.

The immediate issue at hand, however, is the COVID-19 stimulus package. Any failure to deliver will weigh on the Dollar. Labor market conditions have not improved and the 2nd wave has shown little sign of slowing. A lack of benefits for the unemployed will raise more issues than a fall in household spending. We have already seen social unrest…

The Coronavirus:

It was yet another bad week, with the number of new COVID-19 cases continuing to rise at a marked pace.

From the market’s perspective, the 3 key considerations have been:

  1. Progress is made with COVID-19 treatment drugs and vaccines.
  2. No spikes in new cases as a result of the easing of lockdown measures.
  3. Governments continue to progress towards fully opening economies and borders.

Last week, we saw a number of countries including Hong Kong and the UK reintroduce containment measures. Hopes of progress towards a vaccine had limited the damage last week. In the week ahead, however, the numbers will need to ease off to avoid spooking the markets.

At the time of writing, the total number of coronavirus cases stood at 17,981,937. Monday to Saturday, the total number of new cases increased by 1,782,490. Over the same period in the previous week, the total number had risen by 1,531,149.

Monday through Saturday, the U.S reported 447,236 new cases to take the total to 4,762,945. This was up marginally from the previous week’s 417,070

For Germany, Italy, and Spain, there were 22,814 new cases Monday through Saturday. This took the total to 793,804. In the previous week, there had been 17,083 cases over the same period. Spain accounted for 16,101 of the total new cases in the week.

U.S Mortgage Rates Slipped Back to sub-3% as Economic Uncertainty Lingered

Mortgage rates returned to sub-3% levels to sit just above an all-time low 2.98% from back in the week ending 16th July.

The 6th weekly decline in 7-weeks saw 30-year fixed rates fall by 2 basis points to 2.99% in the week ending 30th July. In the previous week, 30-year fixed rates had risen by 3 basis points to 3.01%.

Compared to this time last year, 30-year fixed rates were down by 76 basis points.

30-year fixed rates were also down by 195 basis points since November 2018’s most recent peak of 4.94%.

Economic Data from the Week

Economic data was on the busier side through the 1st half of the week.

Key stats included June durable and core durable goods orders and July consumer confidence figures.

While durable and core durable goods were on the rise, consumer confidence weakened in July. The decline was as a result of the 2nd wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Economic uncertainty has built up as a result of a reintroduction of containment measures that contributed to the previous week’s rise in jobless claims.

Away from the economic calendar, the FED was in action, delivering an anticipated dovish tone.

Freddie Mac Rates

The weekly average rates for new mortgages as of 30th July were quoted by Freddie Mac to be:

  • 30-year fixed rates slipped by 2 basis points to 3.01% in the week. Rates were down from 3.75% from a year ago. The average fee remained unchanged at 0.8 points.
  • 15-year fixed rates fell by 3 basis points to 2.51% in the week. Rates were down from 3.20% compared with a year ago. The average fee remained unchanged at 0.7 points.
  • 5-year fixed rates slid by 15 basis points to 2.94% in the week. Rates were down by 52 points from last year’s 3.46%. The average fee increased from 0.3 points to 0.4 points.

According to Freddie Mac,

  • Mortgage rates continue to remain near historic lows, driving purchase demand over 20% above a year ago.
  • The real estate sector is one of the bright spots in the economy, with strong demand and a modest slowdown in house prices heading into the late summer.
  • House sales should remain strong for the next few months going into the early fall.

Mortgage Bankers’ Association Rates

For the week ending 24th July, rates were quoted to be:

  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed, backed by the FHA, increased from 3.13% to 3.27%. Points increased from 0.29 to 0.35 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed with conforming loan balances remained unchanged at 3.20%. Points rose from 0.35 to 0.37 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances increased from 3.51% to 3.52. Points increased from 0.29 to 0.30 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

Weekly figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, which is a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased by 0.8% in the week ending 24th July. In the week prior, the index had increased by 4.1%.

The Refinance Index slipped by 0.4% and was 121% higher than the same week a year ago. In the week prior, the index had risen by 5%.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased from 64.8% to 65.1% in the week ending 24th July. In the week prior, the share had increased from 64.2 to 64.8%.

According to the MBA,

  • Mortgage rates remained near record lows for conventional loans and refinance in the conventional sector continued to see moderate increases.
  • Rates on FHA loans rose, however, leading to an almost 18% fall in FHA refinances.
  • Homebuyers stepped back slightly, and there was a larger drop in purchase application volume for FHA, VA, and USDA loans.
  • This trend, along with a rising average loan size, indicates that prospective first-time buyers are being impacted more by rising economic stress.
  • Uncertainty over how the next round of government support will take shape was also viewed to be a factor in demand.

For the week ahead

It’s a relatively busy 1st half of the week on the U.S economic calendar.

Key stats in the 1st half of the week include July’s ISM private sector PMIs and ADP nonfarm employment change figures. June factory orders and trade data are also due out.

From elsewhere, private sector PMIs from China will also garner attention early in the week.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19, the COVID-19 stimulus package, and Trump will also impact yields and mortgage rates.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – August 2nd, 2020

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rallied by 4.01% on Saturday. Following a 2.04% gain on Friday, Bitcoin ended the day at $11,804.7.

A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning intraday low $11,227 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $11,080, Bitcoin rallied to a late intraday high $11,843.0.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $11,530 and the second major resistance level at $11,710.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest move through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a bullish day on Saturday.

Ethereum (+11.69%), Ripple’s XRP (+12.06%), and Stellar’s Lumen (+10.76%) led the way.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+6.05%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+5.97%), EOS (+6.71%), Litecoin (+6.01%), Monero’s XMR (+5.94%), and Tezos (+6.87%) also found strong support.

Binance Coin (+4.64%), Cardano’s ADA (+3.79%), and Tron’s TRX (+3.92%) trailed the front runners on the day.

In the current week, the crypto total market cap rose from a Monday low $285.49bn to a Saturday high $349.72bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $348.82bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose from a Monday low 62.44% to a Tuesday high 64.58% before sliding back. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 62.69.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.04% to $11,800. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $11,788 before rising to a high $11,845.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Bitcoin Cash SV (+0.09%), Ethereum (+0.45%), Monero’s XMR (+0.30%), Stellar’s Limen (+0.58%), and Tron’s TRX (+0.87%) found early support.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however, with Litecoin down by 0.87% to lead the way down.

BTC/USD 02/08/20 Daily Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the $11,625 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $12,023.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from Saturday’s high $11,843.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a crypto breakout, Bitcoin could eye the second major resistance level at $12,241.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $11,625 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $11,407 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $11,009 and sub-$11,000 levels.

European Equities: A Month in Review – July 2020

The Majors

It was a mixed month for the European majors, with a final week sell-off reversing gains from earlier in the month.

The DAX30 ended the month up by just 0.02%, while the CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 fell by 3.49% and by 2.98% respectively.

Disappointing economic data from the Eurozone and the U.S, together with a mixed bag on the earnings front weighed late in the month.

Away from the economic calendar, U.S – China tensions and a 2nd wave of the COVID-19 pandemic added to the market angst.

For the European majors, EU member state agreement on the structure of the COVID-19 Recovery Fund had provided some support.

Coupled with news of progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine and positive economic data, the DAX30 had been up by as much as 7% before falling back to sub-13,000 levels.

The Stats

It was a busy month on the Eurozone economic calendar. July’s prelim private sector PMIs and 2nd quarter GDP number were the headline stats of the month.

While June had delivered a less gloomy picture, July delivered a mixed set of stats for the markets to consider.

In the early part of the month, economic data from Germany continued to deliver positive numbers, with factory orders and industrial production seeing further upside.

Mid-month prelim July private sector PMIs from France, Germany, and the Eurozone had also given the majors a boost.

The Eurozone’s Composite PMI rose from 48.5 to 54.8, according to prelim figures.

Late in the month, however, 2nd quarter GDP numbers for France, Germany, and the Eurozone weighed on the majors.

Germany’s economy contracted by 10.10%, France’s by 13.80%, and the Eurozone’s by 12.10% in the quarter.

From the U.S

While nonfarm payrolls, the weekly jobless claims, and private sector PMI numbers had provided support early in the month, it was the weekly jobless claims, consumer confidence, and 2nd quarter GDP numbers that weighed late in the month.

2 consecutive weekly jobless claims increases and a 32.9% contraction in the U.S economy weighed on risk appetite at the month-end.

Consumer confidence also weakened in July as the U.S struggled with a 2nd wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Geopolitics and a failure by the U.S government to pass through the 2nd COVID-19 stimulus package was also market negative.

Monetary Policy

On the monetary policy front, there were no surprises as the ECB left monetary policy unchanged. There had been reports of discord amongst members ahead of the meeting.

The FED also left monetary policy unchanged, while assuring the markets of continued and unwavering support.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bearish month for the auto sector. Continental and Volkswagen slid by 6.49% and by 7.78% respectively to lead the way down. BMW and Daimler saw more modest losses of 4.14% and 2.64% respectively.

It was a mixed month for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank slid by 10.51%, while Commerzbank ended the month up by 9.63%.

From the CAC, it was a bearish month for the banking sector. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole fell by 3.53% and by 3.56% respectively, while Soc Gen slid by 12.30%.

It was also a bearish month for the auto sector. Peugeot fell by 5.80%, with Renault tumbling by 11.16%

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE also saw red, with the pair seeing losses of 13.49% and 2.38% respectively.

Corporate earnings contributed to the moves.

On the VIX Index

The VIX slid by 19.62% in July, delivering a 3rd month in the red out of 4. Reversing a 10.61% rise in June, the VIX ended the month at 24.46.

The VIX had seen 4 consecutive months in the green before the downward trend began in April.

Across the U.S equity markets, the S&P500 rose by 5.51%, with the Dow and NASDAQ gaining 2.38% and 6.82% respectively.

The FED and bank and tech stock earnings provided support amidst a rising number of new COVID-19 cases in the month.

The Month Ahead

It’s another busy month ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar.

An upward trend in the private sector PMIs through to August would need to continue to ease concerns of a further slowdown in the recovery.

The markets would need to continue to see a further pickup in both business and consumer confidence to support consumption.

Consumers would need to see improved labor market conditions, however, to fuel consumption and a service sector-driven economic recovery.

On the monetary policy front, expect the ECB to continue to assure the markets of further support.

From elsewhere, we continue to expect stats from the U.S and China to also garner plenty of attention and have plenty of influence.

Geopolitics and COVID-19 will also remain in focus. In July, Trump had looked to distract U.S voters, which led to a diplomatic spat with China. More of the same could be on the cards in the coming month.

On the Presidential Election front, Trump remains behind in the polls, which suggests more spin and distraction. In the final week of July, Trump had even tweeted a desire to delay the Presidential Election…

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – August 1st, 2020

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rallied by 2.04% on Friday. Following a 0.05% gain on Thursday, Bitcoin ended the month up by 24.04% to $11,350.0.

A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning intraday low $10,990 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,923.2, Bitcoin rose to a late afternoon intraday high $11,440.0.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $11,255.4 and the second major resistance level at $11,387.8.

A late pullback saw Bitcoin fall back through the resistance levels before finding support.

Bitcoin broke back through the first major resistance level to wrap up the day at $11,350 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest move through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Friday.

Binance Coin (+7.76%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+7.19%), and Ripple’s XRP (+6.22%) led the way.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+2.22%), Ethereum (+3.46%), Litecoin (+2.46%), and Monero’s XMR (+4.39%), also found strong support.

EOS (+1.36%), Stellar’s Lumen (+0.73%), Tezos (+1.44%), and Tron’s TRX (+1.93%) trailed the front runners.

Cardano’s ADA bucked the trend, however, falling by 1.17%.

It was a bullish July for the crypto market.

Cardano’s ADA surged by 67.38% to lead the majors.

Bitcoin Cash SV (+46.21%), Ethereum (+53.82%), Litecoin (+41.45%), Ripple’s XRP (+48.21%), and Stellar’s Lumen (+45.72%) also found strong support.

Binance Coin (+34.44%), Bitcoin Cash ABC (+34.87%), EOS (+30.56%), Monero’s XMR (33.17%), Tezos (+20.69%), and Tron’s TRX (+20.39%) trailed the front runners.

In the current week, the crypto total market cap rose from a Monday low $285.49bn to a Monday high $335.81bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $326.94bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose from a Monday low 62.44% to a Tuesday high 64.58% before easing back. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 63.53.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.82% to $11,257.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $11,398 before falling to a low $11,238.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.14%), Cardano’s ADA (+0.21%), and Stellar’s Lumen (+0.69%) found early support.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however. Ripple’s XRP was down by 1.44% to lead the way down.

BTC/USD 01/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the $11,260 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $11,530.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from Friday’s high $11,440.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a crypto breakout, Bitcoin could eye the second major resistance level at $11,710.

Failure to move through the $11,260 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $11,080 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$11,000 levels and the second major support level at $10,810.

EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – August 1st, 2020

EOS

EOS rose by 1.36% on Friday, Following on from a 0.90% gain on Thursday, EOS ended the month up by 30.56% to $3.0950.

It was a mixed start to the day. EOS fell to an early morning intraday low $3.0163 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2.9763, EOS rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $3.1481

EOS broke through the first major resistance level at $3.1191 before easing back to sub-$3.10 levels.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 0.17% to $3.0896. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $3.1155 before falling to a low $3.0896.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOS/USD 01/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid a fall through the $3.0865 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $3.1566.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break back out from Friday’s high $3.1481.

Barring another extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $3.0865 pivot would bring the first major support level at $3.0248 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, EOS should steer clear of the second major support level at $2.9547.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $3.0248

Pivot Level: $3.0865

First Major Resistance Level: $3.1566

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.62

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.76

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.82

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 3.46% on Friday. Following on from a 5.39% rally on Thursday, Ethereum ended the month up by 53.82% to $346.86.

Another mixed start saw Ethereum fall to an early morning intraday low $328.35 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $319.09, Ethereum rallied to a late intraday high $349.74.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $346.97 to test resistance at $350 before easing back.

Ethereum slipped back through the first major resistance level at $346.97 late in the day.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.28% to $345.88. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $347.99 before falling to a low $345.56.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETH/USD 01/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the $341.65 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $354.95.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out form Friday’s high $349.74.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level should cap any upside.

A fall through the $341.65 pivot would bring the first major support level at $333.56 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer well clear of the second major support level at $320.26.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $333.56

Pivot Level: $341.65

First Major Resistance Level: $354.95

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rallied by 6.22% on Friday. Following on from a 0.36% gain on Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the month up by 48.21% to $0.25983.

Tracking the broader market, Ripple’s XRP fell to an early morning intraday low $0.24201 before finding support.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2359, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a late intraday high $0.26078.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the first major resistance level at $0.2517 and the second major resistance level at $0.2587.

On the day, it was the first visit to $0.26 levels since early February before wrapping up the day at $0.2590 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.28% to $0.25909. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.26021 before falling to a low $0.25833.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRP/USD 01/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall through the $0.2542 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.2664.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Friday’s high $0.26078.

Barring another broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level should cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ripple’s XRP would likely test the second major resistance level at $0.0.2730 before any pullback.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.2542 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2476 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should avoid sub-$0.25 levels, however.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2476

Pivot Level: $0.2542

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2664

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

The Weekly Wrap – Economic Data, the FED, and Trump Sank the Dollar

The Stats

It was a busy week on the economic calendar, in the week ending 31st July.

A total of 56 stats were monitored, following the 41 stats from the week prior.

Of the 56 stats, 31 came in ahead forecasts, with 24 economic indicators coming up short of forecasts. Just 1 stat was in line with forecasts in the week.

Looking at the numbers, 19 of the stats reflected an upward trend from previous figures. Of the remaining 37, 35 stats reflected a deterioration from previous.

For the Greenback, it was a 6th consecutive week in the red. In the week ending 31st July, the Dollar Spot Index fell by 1.15% to 93.349. In the week prior, the Dollar had fallen by 1.57%.

The continued slide through the month of July left the Dollar Spot Index down by 4.15% for the month.

Dire economic data, the continued spread of COVID-19, and a dovish FED delivered the loss. Adding to the Dollar angst in the week was Trump’s Presidential Election delay tweet on Thursday…

According to a Reuters report, U.S Dollar net shorts surged to the highest in 9-years, delivering the largest monthly loss Since Sept-2010.

Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers

At the time of writing, the total number of coronavirus cases stood at 17,731,750 for Friday, rising from last Friday’s 15,930,779 total cases. Week-on-week (Saturday thru Friday), the total number of cases was up by 1,801,071 on a global basis. This was higher than the previous week’s increase of 1,741,556 in new cases.

In the U.S, the total rose by 454,463 to 4,702,774. In the week prior, the total number of new cases had risen by 478,299.

Across Germany, Italy, and Spain combined, the total number of new cases increased by 22,753 to bring total infections to 793,804. In the previous week, the total number of new cases had risen by 17,404. Spain alone reported 16,101 new cases in the week.

Out of the U.S

It was a busy week on the economic data front.

Key stats included July consumer confidence, the weekly jobless claims, and 2nd quarter GDP figures.

The stats were skewed to the negative. Consumer confidence deteriorated in July, as a result of the 2nd wave of the pandemic. Initial jobless claims increased for a 2nd consecutive week, with the U.S economy contracting by 32.9% in the 2nd quarter.

At the end of the week, July consumer sentiment figures were also revised down.

There were some positives, however. Durable and core durable goods continued to rise in June.

Chicago’s PMI returned to expansion in July, with personal spending rising for a 2nd consecutive month in June. These were good enough to give the Dollar much-needed support at the end of the week.

In the equity markets, the NASDAQ and S&P500 rose by 3.69% and by 1.73% respectively. The Dow bucked the trend, however, falling by 0.16%.

Out of the UK

It was a particularly quiet week on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.

A lack of economic data contributed to the upside in the Pound that benefitted from Dollar weakness. News of the government reintroducing lockdown measures in the North weighed at the end of the week, however.

In the week, the Pound rallied by 2.27% to $1.3085 in the week, following on from a 1.80% gain from the previous week. The FTSE100 ended the week down by 3.69%, following on from a 2.65% loss from the previous week.

Out of the Eurozone

It was a busy week on the economic data front.

In a quiet 1st half of the week, Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index figures for July provided support on Monday.

The focus then shifted to 2nd quarter GDP numbers. France, Germany, and the Eurozone reported particularly dire 2nd quarter numbers.

The German economy contracted by 10.1%, the French economy by 13.8%, and the Eurozone economy by 12.1%.

It wasn’t enough to send the EUR into the red, however, as the U.S delivered darker numbers.

For the week, the EUR rose by 1.05% to $1.1778, following a 2.00% rally from the previous week. A 0.58% pullback on Friday limited the upside for the week.

For the European major indexes, it was another bearish week. The DAX30 slid by 4.09%, with the CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 falling by 3.49% and by 2.98% respectively.

For the Loonie

It was a quiet week on the economic calendar.

Economic data included May GDP and June RMPI numbers at the end of the week.

The stats were positive, with the Canadian economy expanding by 4.5% in May, following April’s 11.7% contraction. In June, the RMPI rose by a further 7.5%, following a 16.4% jump in May.

While the other majors lost ground against the Greenback on Friday, the stats delivered support at the end of the week.

The Loonie rose by 0.02% to end the week at C$1.3412 against the Greenback. In the week prior, the Loonie had rallied by 1.22% to C$1.3415.

Elsewhere

It was a mixed week for the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar.

In the week ending 31st July, the Aussie Dollar rose by 0.53% to $0.7143, while the Kiwi Dollar fell by 0.18% to $0.6629. A 1.04% slide on Friday, left the Kiwi in the red for the week.

For the Aussie Dollar

It was a relatively quiet week for the Aussie Dollar.

Inflation and private sector credit figures delivered mixed results in the week.

In the 2nd quarter, consumer prices slid by 1.9%, with prices down by 0.30% year-on-year.

Final delivery numbers were not much better, with the Producer Price Index falling by 1.20% in the 2nd quarter. Year-on-year, the index fell by 0.40%.

The numbers were better than forecasts, which propped up the Aussie Dollar.

Private sector credit disappointed, however, falling by 0.3% in June.

While the Aussie Dollar found support against the Greenback, the latest COVID-19 outbreak pinned back the Aussie.

For the Kiwi Dollar

It was another relatively quiet week on the economic data front.

While stats included building consent and business confidence figures, the focus was on the business confidence figures.

A marginal improvement in business confidence did little to support the Kiwi, however.

In July, the ANZ Business Confidence Index rose from -34.4 to -31.8.

According to the latest ANZ Report,

  • A net 9% of firms expect weaker economic activity in their own business, rising from -26% in June.
  • The retail sector drove the recovery, while the agriculture sector was the most negative.
  • 31% of firms say they intend to lay off staff, and 24% say they have less staff than a year ago.

For the Japanese Yen

It was a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar.

Retail sales continued to fall in June. Following a 12.5% slump in May, retail sales fell by 1.20%.

Industrial production delivered hope, however, rising by 2.7% in June, according to prelim figures. In May, production had tumbled by 8.9%.

A weakening U.S Dollar stemming from particularly dire economic data and a dovish FED supported the Yen.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.29% to end the week at ¥105.83 against the Greenback. A 1.05% slide on Friday, cut the gains from earlier in the week. In the week prior, the Yen had risen by 0.82%.

Out of China

It was a quiet week on the economic data front.

July’s NBS private sector PMI figures delivered mixed results on Friday.

While the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped from 54.4 to 54.2, the Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.9 to 51.1.

With Beijing and Washington silent, following the previous week’s diplomatic spat, the Yuan recovered to sub-CNY7 levels.

In the week ending 24th July, the Chinese Yuan rose by 0.62% to CNY6.9752 against the Dollar. In the week prior, the Yuan had fallen by 0.37%.

The CSI300 rallied by 4.20%, while the Hang Seng falling 0.45%, as a 2nd wave of the pandemic hit HK.

European Equities: A Week in Review – 01/08/20

The Majors

It was another bearish week for the European majors in the week ending 31st July. The DAX30 slid by 4.09% to lead the way down. It wasn’t much better for the CAC40 and EuroStoxx600, which saw losses of 3.49% and 2.98% respectively.

4 days in the red, including a heavy sell-off on Thursday, did the damage as economic data from Germany and the U.S weighed.

A continued rise in COVID-19 cases and a mixed bag on the corporate earnings front added to the market angst in the week.

The Stats

It was a busy week on the Eurozone economic calendar.

In a quiet first half of the week, however, stats were limited to Germany’s IFO Business Climate figures for July. Continued improvement in business sentiment delivered the only positive day for the DAX30 on Monday.

The markets then had to wait until Thursday for 2nd quarter GDP and July unemployment figures from Germany.

Germany’s economy contracted by 10.1% in the 2nd quarter, following a 2% contraction in the 1st quarter. Economists had forecast a 9% contraction. This was the largest decline since calculations began 50 years ago.

Year-on-year, the economy contracted by 11.7%, following a 1.8% contraction in the 1st quarter.

German Unemployment figures for July failed to provide support on the day, in spite of better than expected numbers. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.4%, with the number of unemployed falling by 18k.

On Friday, the French economy contracted by 13.8% in the 2nd quarter, with the Eurozone’s economy contracting by 12.1%.

June retail sales figures failed to provide support amidst the dire numbers, in spite of a further jump in sales. In France, consumer spending increased by 9%, following a 37.4% surge in May. German retail sales rose by 5.9%, following a 12.7% bounce in May.

Prelim inflation figures for July had a muted impact as the markets considered the economic woes. With a 2nd wave hitting the U.S and parts of the EU and Asia, the v-shaped recovery looks even less likely.

From the U.S

Stats were also skewed to the negative. Consumer confidence waned in July, with the CB Consumer Confidence Index hitting reverse.

Later in the week, initial jobless claims saw a 2nd consecutive weekly increase, with the U.S economy contracting by a whopping 32.9% in the 2nd quarter.

Things were not much better at the end of the week, with consumer sentiment revised down for July and inflationary pressures easing.

There were some pockets of positive, however. Durable goods and core durable goods orders continued to rise in June. Personal spending was also in recovery mode in June, though the 2nd wave pandemic could weigh on spending in July.

The Market Movers

From the DAX, it was a particularly bearish week for the auto sector. Volkswagen and Continental slid by 12.02% and 9.77% respectively to lead the way down. Things were not much better for BMW and Daimler, which saw losses of 8.88% and 6.33% respectively.

It was another bearish week for the banking sector. Commerzbank slid by 5.15%, with Deutsche Bank tumbling by 8.12%.

From the CAC, it was also a bearish week for the banks. Soc Gen tumbled by 11.64% to lead the way down. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole weren’t far behind with losses of 8.13% and 8.75% respectively.

It was a particularly bearish week for the French auto sector, which reversed gains from the previous week. While Peugeot slid by 8.09%, the markets punished Renault, which slumped by 20.52% in the week.

Air France-KLM slid by 12.40%, while Airbus saw a more modest 3% loss in the week.

Earnings contributed to the moves in the week.

Renault reported a record net loss for the 1st half of the year. Volkswagen slashed its dividend off the back of an operating profit loss.

BNP Paribas fared better, with higher trading volumes providing support. The bank reported a net income loss for the 2nd quarter, however.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the red for the VIX, which saw its 6th week in the red out of 7. Reversing a 0.62% gain from the previous week, the VIX fell by 5.34% to 24.46 in the week ending 31st July.

The S&P500 and the NASDAQ ended the week up by 1.73% and by 3.69% respectively, while the Dow fell by 0.16%.

While economic data from the U.S was particularly dire, tech stocks delivered impressive quarterly earnings in the week. Mid-week, the FED had also delivered much-needed support, assuring the markets of continued support.

The Week Ahead

It’s another busy week on the Eurozone economic calendar.

The lion’s share of the stats is due out in the 1st half of the week. July private sector PMIs for Italy and Spain and finalized PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are in focus.

With Spain getting hit by a 2nd wave of the pandemic, there will be plenty of interest in the numbers. Ultimately, however, expect the Eurozone’s Service and Composite to garner the greatest attention.

In the 2nd half of the week, Germany is back in focus. June factory orders, industrial production, and trade data are due out.

Following last week’s GDP numbers, the stats will need to be impressive to ease the pain…

From the U.S

It is also a particularly busy week ahead.

Key stats include ISM private sector PMIs for July, the weekly jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls.

From Elsewhere

Private sector PMIs and trade data from China will also influence in the week.

Away from the economic calendar, however, COVID-19 news and progress towards the U.S stimulus package will also influence. As always, there is also the simmering tension between the U.S and China to monitor.

The U.S Dollar Slide Continues on a Busy Day of Stats and Updates from Capitol Hill

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was another busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen and the Aussie Dollar were in action, with economic data from China also of influence.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 and the U.S stimulus package remained in focus ahead current unemployment benefits expiring today.

The markets were also able to react to particularly dire GDP numbers from Germany and the U.S and Trump’s tweet.

Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers

According to figures at the time of writing, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 58,655 to 4,626,692 on Thursday. On Wednesday, the number of new cases had risen by 287,638. The daily increase was lower than Wednesday’s rise and down from 270,301 new cases from the previous Thursday.

Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 3,961 new cases on Thursday, which was up from 3,179 new cases on Wednesday. On the previous Thursday, 3,593 new cases had been reported.

From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 58,655 to 4,626,692 on Thursday. On Wednesday, the total number of cases had increased by 69,828. On Thursday, 23rd July, a total of 69,116 new cases had been reported.

For the Japanese Yen

Industrial production rose by 2.70% in June, following an 8.9% slump in May. Economists had forecast a 1.2% rise.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry,

Industries that mainly contributed to the increase were:

  • Motor vehicles, production machinery, and plastic products.

Industries that mainly contributed to the decrease were:

  • Inorganic and organic chemicals, pulp, paper, and paper products, and other manufacturing.

Industrial production forecasts for July were also positive. Following a 9.2% jump in production forecasted back in June, production is now forecasted to surge by 11.3% in July. In August, production is forecast to rise by 3.4%.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥104.698 to ¥104.597 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.37% to ¥104.34 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

In July, the NBS Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.90 to 51.1, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped from 54.4 to 54.2.

Economists had forecast PMIs of 50.7 and 54.1 respectively.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.72039 to $0.72052 upon release of the figures.

For the Aussie Dollar

Producer Price Index and private sector credit figures were in focus early in the day.

According to the ABS,

  • Final demand excluding exports fell by 1.2% in the 2nd quarter and by 0.4% over the past 12-months.
  • Petroleum refining and petroleum fuel manufacturing (-30.1%), child care services (-36.7%), and other agri (-6.4%) weighed.
  • There were increases in other transport equipment (+3.6%), computer and electronic equipment (+3.1%), and other motor vehicle and motor vehicle part manufacturing (+1.2%).

According to the RBA,

Total credit fell by 0.2% in June, following a 0.1% decline in May.

  • Housing credit increased by 0.2%, following a 0.2% rise in May.
  • Personal credit fell by 0.6%, following a 1.3% slide in May, with business credit falling by 0.8%. In May, business credit had fallen by 0.6%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.72032 to $0.72169 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.29% to $0.72145.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.01% to $0.6698.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s another busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include 2nd quarter GDP numbers from France, Spain, and the Eurozone that are scheduled for release. June’s consumer spending and retail sales figures for France and Germany will also draw attention.

Prelim June inflation figures for France, Italy, and the Eurozone, also due out but will likely have a muted impact.

Away from the economic calendar, the Dollar could crumble further should lawmakers fail to pass the stimulus package. An alternative would be an agreement to extend the current enhanced federal unemployment insurance policy.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.30% to $1.1882.

For the Pound

It’s yet another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

A lack of stats will continue to leave the Pound in the hands of Brexit and the Dollar. The recent lack of economic data from the UK has allowed Dollar weakness to support a move back through to $1.31 levels.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.26% to $1.3130.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. June’s personal spending and inflation figures are key stats due out later today. Finalized consumer sentiment figures for July are also due out. Barring any material downward revision, however, it will likely be brushed aside.

Away from the calendar, the focus on the day will be on Capitol Hill. A failure by lawmakers to pass the stimulus package or to extend the current unemployment benefit would weigh.

We can also expect plenty of Trump tweets as COVID-19 numbers continue to rise across the U.S.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.31% to 92.731.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include May GDP and June RMPI figures.

Expect the GDP numbers to be the key driver on the day.

Away from the economic calendar, however, any further risk aversion would likely mask any upbeat numbers…

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.04% to C$1.3418 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – July 31st, 2020

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by 0.05% on Thursday. Following on from a 1.70% gain on Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $11,123.0.

A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early afternoon intraday low $10,855.8 before making a move.

Finding support at the first major support level at $10,852, Bitcoin rose to a late high $11,186.1.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $11,380, Bitcoin fell back to sub-$11,100 levels and into the red.

Finding late support, however, Bitcoin move struck a final hour intraday high $11,188 before easing back.

In spite of the pullback, Bitcoin closed out the day in the green.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest move through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a bullish day on Thursday.

Ethereum rallied by 5.39% to lead the way.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+2.43%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+1.52%), Litecoin (+2.92%), Monero’s XMR (+2.58%), and Stellar’s Lumen (+1.72%) also found strong support.

Binance Coin (+0.55%), Cardano’s ADA (+0.62%), EOS (+0.90%), Ripple’s XRP (+0.36%), Tezos (+0.90%), and Tron’s TRX (+0.32%) tailed the front runners.

In the current week, the crypto total market cap rose from a Monday low $285.49bn to a Monday high $335.81bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $321.79bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose from a Monday low 62.43% to a Tuesday high 64.57% before easing back. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 63.58.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.16% to $11,105.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $11,149.3 before falling to a low $11,100.3.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Binance Coin (+0.51%), Monero’s XMR (+0.22%), and Tezos (+0.01%) bucked the trend early on.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, with Bitcoin Cash SV down by 0.58% to lead the way down.

BTC/USD 31/07/20 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the $11,056 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $11,255.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from Thursday’s high $11,189.2.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a crypto breakout, Bitcoin could eye the second major resistance level at $11,388.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $11,056 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $10,923 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Bitcoin should continue to steer clear of sub-$10,800 levels and the second major support level at $10,723.

EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – July 31st, 2020

EOS

EOS rose by 0.90% on Thursday. Following on from a 0.79% gain on Wednesday, EOS ended the day at $3.0540.

It was a bearish start to the day. EOS fell to a mid-morning intraday low $2.9638 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2.9367, EOS rallied to a late intraday high $3.1066.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $3.1410, EOS slipped back to wrap up the day at sub-$3.10 levels.

At the time of writing, EOS was up by 0.15% to $3.0585. A bullish start to the day saw EOS rise from an early morning low $3.0535 to a high $3.0652.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOS/USD 31/07/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid a fall through the $3.0415 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $3.1191.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break out from Thursday’s high $3.1066.

Barring another extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level at $3.1191 would likely cap any upside.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $3.0415 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2.9763 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, EOS should steer well clear of sub-$2.90 levels and the second major support level at $2.8987.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2.9763

Pivot Level: $3.0415

First Major Resistance Level: $3.1191

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.62

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.76

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.82

Ethereum

Ethereum rallied by 5.39% on Thursday. Following a modest 0.20% rise from on Wednesday, Ethereum ended the day at $335.31.

A mixed start saw Ethereum fall to an early morning intraday low $314.52 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $311.93, Ethereum rallied to a late intraday high $342.40.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $325.12 and the second major resistance level at $332.08.

Coming up short of the third major resistance level at $345.27, Ethereum eased back to sub-$340 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 0.08% to $335.58. A bullish start to the day saw Ethereum rise from an early morning low $335.18 to a high $336.99.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETH/USD 31/07/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the $330.74 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $347.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out form Thursday’s high $342.40.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level should cap any upside.

A fall through the $330.74 pivot would bring the first major support level at $319 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer well clear of the second major support level at $302.86.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $319

Pivot Level: $330.74

First Major Resistance Level: $347

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 0.36% on Thursday. Following on from Wednesday’s 5.57% rally, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.24462.

A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning intraday low $0.23425 before finding support.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2320, Ripple’s XRP rose to a late intraday high $0.25000.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.2530, Ripple’s XRP eased back to limit the upside on the day.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.03% to $0.24454. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.24602 before falling to a low $0.24443.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRP/USD 31/07/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall through the $0.2430 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.2517.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Thursday’s high $0.2500.

Barring another broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level should cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ripple’s XRP should test the second major resistance level at $0.2587 before any pullback.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.2430 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2359 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should avoid sub-$0.23 levels and the second major support level at $0.2272.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2359

Pivot Level: $0.2430

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2517

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

European Equities: Economic Data, Earnings, and U.S Stimulus in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Friday, 31st July

French GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

German Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Jun)

French CPI m/m (Jul) Prelim

French HICP m/m (Jul) Prelim

Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

Italian CPI (MoM) (Jul) Prelim

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jul) Prelim

Eurozone Core CPI y/y (Jul) Prelim

Eurozone GDP q/q (Q2) 1st Estimate

Eurozone GDP y/y (Q2) 1st Estimate

The Majors

It was a particularly bearish day for the European majors, with the DAX falling a to 1-month lows on Thursday.

The DAX30 slid by 3.45% to lead the way down, with the CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 falling by 2.13% and 2.16% respectively.

Particularly dire economic data from Germany and the U.S, corporate earnings weighed on the European majors. Trump’s tweet of considering a delay to the U.S Presidential Election added the market angst on the day.

The Stats

It was a busy day on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats included 2nd quarter GDP and July unemployment figures from Germany.

The Eurozone’s unemployment figures for June and prelim July inflation figures from Germany had a muted impact on the day.

Germany’s economy contracted by 10.1% in the 2nd quarter, following a 2% contraction in the 1st quarter. Economists had forecast a 9% contraction. This was the largest decline since calculations began 50 years ago.

According to Destatis,

  • An unprecedented slump in exports and imports of goods and services, household final consumption expenditures, and capital formation in machinery and equipment contributed.
  • General government raised its final consumption expenditure, however.

Year-on-year, the economy contracted by 11.7%, following a 1.8% contraction in the 1st quarter. Economists had forecast a 10.9% contraction.

On the positive, however, were better than expected German unemployment figures for July. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.4%, with the number of unemployed falling by 18k, following a 68k rise in June. Economists had forecast a 43k rise in the unemployed and for the unemployment rate to increase to 6.5%.

From the U.S

Late in the European session, 2nd quarter GDP and the weekly jobless claims were in focus.

In the 2nd quarter, the U.S economy contracted by a whopping 32.9%, following a 5% contraction in the 1st quarter. Economists had forecast a 34.1% contraction. Though this was of little consolation.

The weekly jobless claims were also on the rise once more. In the week ending 24th July, initial jobless claims rose by 1.434m, following a 1.422m jump from the previous week. Economists had forecast a 1.450m increase.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a particularly bearish day for the auto sector on Thursday. Volkswagen slumped by 5.96% to lead the way down, with Continental sliding by 3.71%. BMW and Daimler saw more modest losses of 2.56% and 2.95% respectively.

Volkswagen reported an operating loss for the 1st half, while also slashing its dividend, which weighed heavily on the day.

It was another bearish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank fell by 2.65%, with Commerzbank sliding by 4.52%.

From the CAC, it was a particularly bearish day for the banks. Soc Gen and Credit Agricole slid by 5.07% and 4.69% respectively, with BNP Paribas falling by 3.97%.

It was even worse for the French auto sector. While Peugeot slid by 4.80%, Renault tumbled by 9.26%, off the back of a record net loss for the 1st half of the year.

Air France-KLM joined the broader pack, sliding by 4.59%, while Airbus SE bucked the trend, rising by 1.87%.

The upside for Airbus came in spite of second-quarter revenue sliding by 55%. Better than expected FCF and plans not to erode FCF in the 2nd half of the year supported the upside.

On the VIX Index

It was a back into the green for the VIX on Thursday. Partially reversing a 5.72% loss from Wednesday, the VIX rose by 2.74% to end the day at 24.76.

Particularly dire 2nd quarter GDP numbers and a 2nd consecutive rise in U.S initial jobless claims weighed on the S&P500 and the Dow.

U.S President Trump’s tweet of considering a delay to the November Presidential Election didn’t help…

The S&P500 and Dow fell by 0.38% and by 0.85% respectively, while the NASDAQ rose by 0.43%. The upside for the NASDAQ came in anticipation of earnings from Alphabet, Amazon.inc, Apple, and Facebook after the market close.

VIX 31/07/20 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s another busy day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats include 2nd quarter GDP numbers from France, Spain, and the Eurozone. June’s consumer spending and retail sales figures for France and Germany will also draw attention.

Prelim June inflation figures for France, Italy, and the Eurozone are also due out but will likely have a muted impact.

On the earnings front, BNP Paribas and Air France KLM are also in focus on the day.

From the U.S

June’s personal spending and inflation figures, together with finalized July consumer sentiment figures are due out.

Earlier in the day, China’s private sector PMIs for July could influence the mood.

Away from the numbers, tech stocks will likely get a boost following better than expected earnings results after the U.S close.

There is also the expiration of the U.S enhanced federal unemployment insurance policy to consider. With another jump in jobless claims, disagreement on Capitol Hill risks a further delay to the stalled COVID-19 stimulus package.

When considering the state of the U.S economy and the continued spread of COVID-19, even the passing of the stimulus package may not be enough…

The Latest Coronavirus Figures

According to figures at the time of writing, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 268,725 to 17,440,017 on Thursday. On Wednesday, the number of new cases had risen by 287,638. The daily increase was lower than Wednesday’s rise and down from 270,301 new cases from the previous Thursday.

Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 4,022 new cases on Thursday, which was up from 3,179 new cases on Wednesday. On the previous Thursday, 3,593 new cases had been reported.

From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 58,655 to 4,626,692 on Thursday. On Wednesday, the total number of cases had increased by 69,828. On Thursday, 23rd July, a total of 69,116 new cases had been reported.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow was up by 169 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Trump, the Polls, and that Glimmer of Hope

The Mood

COVID-19 has left the Presidential Election up in the air, with many having now written off Trump’s chances of a 2nd term.

Trump may have hoped for a 2nd term and, as some put it, a political dynasty to extend beyond his watch.

We can expect the debate to last longer than Trump’s political career. The big question mark will be whether Trump would have won a 2nd term had the U.S not succumbed to COVID-19.

It wasn’t just COVID-19 that has left Trump trailing in the polls, however.

Civil unrest and the administration’s foreign policy are just two examples of how Trump isolated and disjointed the U.S.

With Canada, China, Mexico, the EU, and even the UK falling foul of U.S foreign policy, many will be hoping of a Trump defeat.

We’re 3-months away from the 3rd November and there’s a lot that has to change for Trump to claw back his way into contention.

The Latest Polls

So, according to the latest FT’s interactive Calculator and polling data, which are as at 29th July 2020, there has been a shift in the numbers.

The FT has Democratic challenger Biden with 308 Electoral College votes, which remains unchanged from 22nd July.

In fact, Biden has held onto the 308 since falling back from 318 as at the end of June.

It’s been a different story for the U.S President, however.

The latest numbers show Trump with 128 Electoral College votes, which is down from 132 as at 22nd July.

Looking more closely at the numbers, there is some cause for optimism for the blues.

Joe Biden has seen the number of solid votes rise from 188 to 190, with leaning votes falling by 2 to 118.

For U.S President Trump, his projected Electoral College vote count has fallen from 132 to 128.

Leaning votes stand at 51, with solid votes at 77. That’s quite a shift from 22nd July. Leaning votes and solid votes had stood at 17 and 115 respectively just over a week ago.

Also positive for Biden is the rise in the number of toss-up votes, which have increased from 98 to 102.

If we look at the key U.S states that tend to be election barometers:

Missouri continues to lean in favor of Trump and the Republicans, with Kansas City now also leaning in Trump’s favor. A week ago, Kansas City had been a solid Republican state. Sending in Federal agents looks to have caused the shift.

For Biden, Illinois, New Mexico, and Oregon are solid blues, with Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania also blue.

The Road Ahead

With the first of 3 Presidential Election debates not due until 29th September, that may favor the U.S President.

Trump and the administration have just under 2-months to prepare to defend the Administration.

U.S equities have held their ground, largely thanks to the FED. By contrast, however, the economy is in a shambles, with unemployment sky-high.

The latest U.S COVID stimulus package also doesn’t like it’s going to do the trick and support the unemployed. A sizeable cut in unemployment benefit is not only going to rile voters but also weigh on consumer spending.

That’s a double negative for a U.S President that had promised to reunite the Republican Party and make America great again.

As the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to hit the U.S economy further, Republicans have also begun to distance themselves from the President.

The failure to deliver a swift stimulus package to the House was a reflection of the party’s recent fragmentation.

Trump needs a united party front and a widely available vaccine to shift the polls in his favor.

If the latest news on the vaccine is anything to go by, a vaccine may not be available until mid-2021.

That means one full winter season, where the U.S could even succumb to a 3rd wave of the pandemic. Such an outcome would almost certainly be curtains for the U.S President.

Not even a postponement of the U.S Election would save Trump.

The Glimmer of Hope

For the die-hard Republicans, there may be a glimmer of hope, however…

Republicans have a tendency to be more loyal than Democrats. You don’t have to go too far back in history to see examples of Democrats flipping at the last minute.

Hillary Clinton was set for a comfortable win back in 2016.

Then consider Trump’s in-party support that remains exceptionally high compared to other Presidential candidates going for a 2nd term. This is the case even with the latest news of some turning their back on their leader.

When you then factor in Trump’s sheer desire to win at all costs, some may still give him a reasonable chance to swing the polls in his favor.

One last thing to consider is the COVID-19 pandemic and what actual impact it will have on Election Day.

Trump may quietly be hoping for the pandemic to remain a concern on Election Day. With Republicans considered to be more loyal, they are more likely to vote at any cost.

A low turnout on Election Day must therefore also favor Trump and a 2nd term.

All in all, it makes for an interesting few months ahead.

Assuming that China, Russia, and other anti-Trump nations don’t rig the elections, it’s still anyone’s race.

Economic Data Puts the Greenback and the EUR in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a busier start to the day on the economic calendar. The Kiwi Dollar and the Japanese Yen were in action in the early part of the day.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 and the U.S stimulus package remained in focus following the FED’s overnight monetary policy decision.

Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers

According to figures at the time of writing, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 287,638 to 17,171,292 on Wednesday. On Tuesday, the number of new cases had risen by 241,391. The daily increase was higher than Tuesday’s rise while down from 288,688 new cases from the previous Wednesday.

Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 3,179 new cases on Wednesday, which was up from 2,602 new cases on Tuesday. On the previous Wednesday, 2,217 new cases had been reported.

From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 69,828 to 4,498,209 on Wednesday. On Tuesday, the total number of cases had increased by 64,799. On Wednesday, 22nd July, a total of 72,306 new cases had been reported.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Building consents and July business confidence figures provided the Kiwi Dollar with direction early on.

According to NZ Stats, building consents rose by 0.50% in June, following a 41.7% jump in May. While up marginally for the month, consents were up by close to 20% from June 2019.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.66681 to $0.66657 upon release of the data.

In July, the ANZ Business Confidence Index rose from -34.4 to -31.8.

According to the latest ANZ Report,

  • A net 9% of firms expect weaker economic activity in their own business, rising from -26% in June.
  • The retail sector drove the recovery, while the agriculture sector was the most negative.
  • 31% of firms say they intend to lay off staff, and 24% say they have less staff than a year ago.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.66649 to $0.66570 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.18% to $0.6657.

For the Japanese Yen

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, retail sales fell by 1.20%. Economists had forecast a 6.50% slide. In May retail sales had tumbled by 12.3% in May, year-on-year.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥105.012 to ¥105.008 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.14% to ¥105.07 against the U.S Dollar.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.18% to $0.7175.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include 2nd quarter GDP and July unemployment figures from Germany.

The Eurozone’s unemployment rate and German prelim July inflation figures for July are also due out. The numbers will likely have a muted impact on the EUR.

Expect the GDP and July unemployment figures to be the key driver, along with COVID-19 news and U.S stimulus package updates.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down 0.17% to $1.1772.

For the Pound

It’s yet another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

A lack of stats will continue to leave the Pound in the hands of Brexit and market risk sentiment.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.13% to $1.2980.

Across the Pond

It’s another relatively busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. 2nd quarter GDP and weekly initial jobless claims figures are due out.

While we can expect influence from the GDP numbers, the weekly jobless claims could garner more attention. Another rise in claims will test the market’s resolve.

Away from the calendar, the U.S stimulus package and COVID-19 will remain in focus.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.10% to 93.357.

For the Loonie

It’s another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment that will be driven by geopolitics and COVID-19.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.05% to C$1.3346 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.