ADA Price Prediction: Mainnet Project Updates Leaves Sub-$0.420 in View

Key Insights:

  • On Saturday, cardano (ADA) saw red for a second consecutive day to end the day at $0.430.
  • There were no updates from Input Output HK to provide direction, leaving the bearish sentiment from the broader crypto market to weigh.
  • The technical indicators are bearish. With ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, sub-$0.420 remains in play.

On Saturday, ADA fell by 1.15%. Following a 0.68% decline on Friday, ADA ended the day at $0.430, the lowest day’s end price since August 28.

A mixed start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.436. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.441, ADA slid to a late afternoon low of $0.425. ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.429 before a partial recovery to $0.430.

The sixth day in the red from eight sessions saw ADA near the August low of $0.424 before the return to $0.430.

Crypto Market Forces Overshadow Cardano Mainnet Updates

On Friday, US economic indicators vindicated the Fed’s aggressive policy goals to bring inflation to target. Fed fear resurfaced at the end of the week, with US inflationary pressures picking up in August. The Core PCE Price Index increased by 4.9%, up from 4.7% in July.

Investor jitters from Friday’s numbers led to a broader crypto market pullback. Two consecutive days in the red left the market cap down $12.9 billion to $898.5 billion. However, the losses were modest, suggesting some investor resilience.

Following the September 22 Vasil hard fork, Input Output HK and Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson have delivered positive updates. However, an anticipated influx of projects has yet to materialize, leaving ADA on the defensive.

According to Input Output HK, the number of projects launched on the Cardano increased by one to 100 in the week ending September 30. Additionally, 1,113 projects are building on Cardano, up by six from the previous week.

Following the Vasil hard fork, Hoskinson talked about hundreds of projects considering the Cardano network after the mainnet hard fork. A surge in projects on the Cardano mainnet would deliver an ADA breakout and a return to $0.50.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.23% to $0.431. A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise from an early low of $0.430 to a high of $0.433.

ADA finds early support.
ADAUSD 021022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA has to avoid a fall through the $0.431 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.435 and the Saturday high of $0.436. A marked shift in investor sentiment would be needed to support a return to $0.435.

In the case of a breakout session, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.439 and $0.440 would likely come into view. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.447.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.427 into play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.425 and the Second Major Support Level at $0.423. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.415. In the case of an extended sell-off, a fall through the August low of $0.424 would bring sub-$0.420 into play.

ADA resistance levels in play above the pivot.
ADAUSD 021022 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.441. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through R1 ($0.435) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.439) and the 50-day EMA ($0.441). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.462. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave ADA under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 021022 4-Hourly Chart

US Mortgage Rates Rise for a Sixth Consecutive Week to 6.7%

In the week ending September 29, mortgage rates increased for a sixth consecutive week to 6.70%. In the week prior 30-year fixed rates rose by 27 basis points to 6.29%.

Following the 41-basis point jump, rates are up 171 basis points from an August 3 low of 4.99%. Year-over-year, 30-year fixed rates were up by 369 basis points to reach a new 2022 peak.

Economic Data from the Week

It was a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar, with durable and core durable goods in focus, with consumer confidence.

The numbers were upbeat. A sharp pickup in consumer confidence gave the Fed another green light to tackle inflation. The CB Consumer Confidence Index jumped from 103.6 to 108.0.

FOMC member chatter also contributed to the upswing in mortgage rates, with members aligned on cranking up interest rates to bring inflation to target.

Freddie Mac Rates

The weekly average rates for new mortgages, as of September 29, 2022, were quoted by Freddie Mac to be:

  • 30-year fixed rates increased by 41 basis points to 6.70%. This time last year, rates stood at 3.01%. The average fee held steady at 0.9 points.
  • 15-year fixed rates surged by 52 basis points to 5.96%. Rates were up by 368 basis points from 2.28% a year ago. The average fee increased from 1.0 to 1.3 points.
  • 5-year fixed rates rose by 33 basis points to 5.30%. Rates were up by 282 basis points from 2.48% a year ago. The average fee remained unchanged at 0.4 points.

According to Freddie Mac,

  • Mortgage rates have doubled over the last year, driven by uncertainty and volatility in the financial markets.
  • The impact on a typical mortgage borrower paying at the higher range would be several hundred dollars more than a borrower locked in at the lower range.
  • Freddie Mac pointed out that “the dispersion in rates means it has become even more important for homebuyers to shop around with different lenders.”

Mortgage Bankers’ Association Rates

For the week ending September 23, 2022, the rates were:

  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed with conforming loan balances increased from 6.25% to 6.52%. Points jumped from 0.71 to 1.15 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates backed by FHA rose from 5.85% to 6.17%. Points increased from 1.15 to 1.31 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances increased from 5.79% to 6.01%. Points rose from 0.46 to 0.70 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

Weekly figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased by 3.7% in the week ending September 23. The Index increased by 3.8% in the week prior.

The Refinance Index slid by 11% and was 84% lower than the same week one year ago. In the previous week, the Index jumped by 10.%. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased from 32.5% to 30.2%. In the week prior, the refinance share rose from 30.2% to 32.5% of total applications.

According to the MBA,

  • Applications for both purchase and refinances fell due to another surge in mortgage rates to multi-year highs.
  • More aggressive Federal Reserve policy measures to bring down inflation continue to push mortgage rates higher.
  • 30-year fixed rates are at their highest level since 2008 and, with rates more than double the rates from a year ago, refinancing activity is at a 22-year low.

For the week ahead

It is a busy week ahead with manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI numbers due on Monday and Wednesday. While the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will have the most influence, JOLTs job openings and ADP nonfarm employment change numbers on Tuesday and Wednesday will also draw attention.

The Fed has a lot of wriggle room before labor market conditions force the Fed to take its foot off the gas.

Following Friday’s Core PCE Price Index numbers for August, FOMC member chatter will also influence.

XRP Price Action Turns Bearish as Court Action Pauses for the Weekend

Key Insights:

  • On Saturday, XRP fell by 1.03%. Following a 1.42% loss on Friday, XRP ended the day at $0.47516.
  • Investors continued to lock in profits following Thursday’s SEC v Ripple Court ruling in favor of Ripple.
  • However, the technical indicators remain bullish, with XRP sitting above the 50-day EMA, supporting a return to $0.55.

On Saturday, XRP fell by 1.03%. Following a 1.42% loss on Friday, XRP ended the day at $0.47516.

A choppy start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.46773. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4636, XRP rose to a late afternoon high of $0.48580. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4980, XRP fell back to end the day at sub-$0.48.

XRP tracked the broader crypto market into negative territory, with US inflation from Friday driving fed fear to leave the crypto market in negative territory. Investor sentiment toward the latest Court ruling in the SEC v Ripple saga took a back seat going into the weekend.

Investors Await the SEC’s Next Move after 7 Failed Attempts

Following Thursday’s surprise Court ruling, investors now await the SEC’s next strategic move to shield William Hinman’s speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.

Last Thursday, Judge Torres overruled the SEC’s objection to the Court denying the SEC motion to protect the William Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege. The SEC had made at least seven attempts to shield the documents under the attorney-client privilege.

Despite numerous Court orders to turn over the documents, the SEC has yet to comply with Court orders. Yet, despite the Court orders, the SEC remains defiant.

In a famous 2018 speech, former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

The documents that the SEC is trying to shield may have damaging content and have led to Hinman becoming a central figure in the SEC v Ripple case. Having come this far, investors now expect the SEC to play its next card.

In a series of tweets, defense attorney James Filan shared his thoughts on the SEC’s options. These included,

  • Ask Judge Torres to reconsider her overruling the SEC objection.
  • Request the Court to certify an appeal of the Court decision.
  • Go to the Court of Appeals on a Petition for Writ of Mandamus.
  • All the above.

The worst-case scenario would likely weigh on XRP. A further extension to the ongoing case could see XRP fall back toward $0.40. In the week ahead, Court filings from the SEC will need monitoring.

Overnight, there were no updates for investors to consider, leaving XRP in the hands of the broader crypto market.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.15% to $0.47466. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.47705 before falling to a low of $0.47446.

XRP range-bound early on
XRPUSD 021022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.4762 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4847 and the Saturday high of $0.4858. Investors will look out for any updates from the SEC and the Defendants. Talk of an SEC appeal would likely limit the upside.

However, in the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4943 and $0.50. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5124.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4667 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.46 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4582.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4401.

XRP support levels in play below the pivot.
XRPUSD 021022 Hourly Chart

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.46046. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA. The signals were XRP price positive.

An XRP hold above the 50-day EMA ($0.46046) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.4847) to target R2 ($0.4943). However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($0.46046) would give the bears a run at S1 ($0.4667) and the 100-day EMA ($0.43708). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.40676.

EMAs bullish.
XRPUSD 021022 4-Hourly Chart

BTC Fear & Greed Index Creeps Higher on BTC Range-Bound Session

Key Insights:

  • On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.59% to end the day at $19,316.
  • US inflation figures from Friday, Fed Fear, and the NASDAQ’s worst losing streak since 2008 weighed.
  • Despite the bearish session, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index rose from 20/100 to 24/100.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.59%. Following a 0.81% fall from Friday, BTC ended the day at $19,316.

Following a 38.9% loss from Q3, BTC traded within a tight range and avoided sub-$19,000 for the second time in twelve sessions.

A mixed start to the session saw BTC rise to an early high of $19,485. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,223, BTC fell to a late morning low of $19,157. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,996, BTC ended the day at $19,316.

Investor sentiment toward inflation, Fed monetary policy, and the economic outlook left BTC on the back foot. The influence of US economic indicators and Fed monetary policy on the crypto market supported the ongoing correlation with the NASDAQ 100.

NASDAQ correlation.
NASDAQ – BTCUSD 021022 Daily Chart

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Rises on Range-Bound BTC Session

Today, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 20/100 to 24/100. A bearish BTC session, fueled by inflation and Fed fear, led BTC into the red. However, BTC avoided sub-$19,000, with a range-bound session delivering hope of a bottoming out.

Friday’s US inflation figures tested investor resilience going into the weekend. However, investors have yet to jump ship, with investor resilience reflected in the Index moves. This morning’s increase left the Index on the border of the Fear zone.

In recent weeks, avoiding sub-20/100 has been the key. The bears will be eying a fall to sub-20/100 to signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000. By contrast, the bulls will look for an Index return to 40/100 to support a move toward $25,000.

Fear & Greed Index approaches the Fear zone.
Fear & Greed 021022

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.02% to $19,312. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $19,303 before rising to a high of $19,325.

BTC range-bound early on.
BTCUSD 021022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $19,319 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,482 and resistance at $19,500. A move through the Saturday high of $19,485 would signal a bullish session.

In the case of another extended rally, BTC should test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,647 and target the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $19,975.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,154 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,991 will likely limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,663.

BTC support levels in play below the pivot.
BTCUSD 021022 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat at the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,362.

The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish price signals.

A move through the 50-day ($19,362) EMA would give the bulls a run at R1 ($19,482) and the 100-day EMA ($19,506). The 200-day EMA sits at $19,965. However, a failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($19,362) would give the bears a run at S1 ($19,154) and sub-$19,000.

EMAs bearish.
BTCUSD 021022 4 Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – Solana (SOL) Led the Top Ten South

Key Insights:

  • It was a bearish Saturday for the crypto top ten, with solana (SOL) leading the way down.
  • There were no external market forces to influence, leaving Friday’s US inflation figures and the NASDAQ’s worst losing streak since 2008 to resonate.
  • The bearish session left the crypto market cap down $7.1 billion to $898.5 billion.

It was a bearish Saturday session for the crypto top ten. DOGE and SOL led the way down. However, despite the bearish session, BTC avoided sub-$19,000 for just the second time in twelve sessions.

On Friday, US economic indicators supported the Fed’s aggressive policy goals to curb inflation and return inflation to target. The Core PCE Price Index increased by 4.9% in August, up from 4.7% in July.

Hawkish Fed chatter and the Friday numbers from the US remained crypto market negatives on Saturday. The influence from the US also supported the ongoing crypto correlation with the NASDAQ 100.

The NASDAQ 100 fell by 1.51% to end the Q3 with a 4.11% loss. More importantly, the NASDAQ 100 extended its quarterly losing streak to three, its worst run since 2008.

NASDAQ correlation
Total Market Cap 021022 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Starts the Fourth Quarter on a Bearish Footing

On Saturday, the crypto market rose to an early high of $909.6 billion before an extended decline to a late low of $891.5 billion. Despite the bearish session, the loss was modest by more recent standards.

The crypto market cap fell by $7.1 billion to $898.5 billion.

With the US markets closed through the weekend, the crypto market may take its cues from the NASDAQ 100 Mini in the final hour (UTC). A bearish start to the Monday session would test crypto investor resilience.

Crypto market has bearish first session of the quarter.
Total Market Cap 021022 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a bearish Saturday session for the crypto top ten.

DOGE and SOL led the way down, with losses of 2.42% and 1.75%, respectively, with ADA (-1.15%), ETH (-1.29%), and XRP (-1.03%) also struggling.

BNB (-0.67%) and BTC (-0.59%) saw relatively modest losses on the day.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

Reserve Rights (RSR) and Terra Classic (LUNC) led the way, rallying by X% and U%, respectively, with stellar’s lumen (XLM) gaining X%.

However, Pancake Swap (CAKE), Helium (HNT), and Lido DAO (LDO) led the way down. CAKE and HNT slid by X% and Y%, respectively, with LDO falling by X%.

24-Hour Crypto Liquidations Slide in Range-Bound Session

Over 24 hours, total liquidations fell below normal levels, with the crypto market moving within a tight range at the start of the quarter. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $29.26 million, down from $92.79 million on Saturday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also declined. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 14,570 versus 28,614 on Saturday morning. Liquidations were down over four and twelve hours while up for the final hour of the day (UTC).

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations stood at $23.11 million, down from $66.05 million on Saturday morning, with four-hour liquidations down from $14.90 million to $4.25 million. However, one-hour liquidations were up from $0.563 million to $1.83 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market sees bearish final hour.
Total Market Cap 021022 Hourly Chart

ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – ETH Avoids the Deep Red

Key Insights:

  • It was a bullish Monday to Friday, with the total crypto market cap rising by $17.8 billion to $905.6 billion.
  • However, US economic indicators and Fed fear pegged the crypto market back from more meaningful gains.
  • Technical indicators are bearish, with uncertainty about the economic outlook a headwind.

Monday to Friday, the crypto market cap rose by $17.4 billion to $905.6 billion. The upside follows two consecutive weekly losses, though the market cap continued to slip to sub-$900 billion.

Three sessions in positive territory from five supported the upswing. Market volatility across the FX and equity markets delivered crypto market support ahead of the Friday pullback.

The GBP/USD pair fell to an all-time low of $1.03565 as investors responded to the UK government’s mini-budget and the Bank of England’s need to intervene. Dollar strength put other currencies under pressure, with fears of a global economic recession adding to the FX market vol.

However, a pickup in US inflationary pressure weighed on the crypto market on Friday. The Core PCE Price Index increased by 4.9%, up from 4.7% in July, sending riskier assets into the red.

For the week, the NASDAQ 100 fell by 2.69%, with the crypto market enjoying a further decoupling from the US equity markets. Significantly, the NASDAQ fell for a third consecutive quarter, its worst losing streak since the global financial crisis.

NASDAQ correlation.
Crypto – NASDAQ Daily Chart 011022

Also contributing to the upswing in the crypto total market cap were favorable updates from the SEC v Ripple (XRP) case.

On Thursday, the Court overruled the SEC’s objection to the Court denying the SEC motion to protect the William Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.

The outcome of the SEC v Ripple case will impact XRP and the broader crypto market. A Ripple victory could see the onus of regulating the crypto market fall with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The crypto market favors the CFTC over the SEC.

market cap avoids the red despite the NASDAQ tumble.
Crypto Market Cap Daily Chart 011022

Cardano (ADA)

Monday to Friday, ADA was down 2.47% to 0.435. The Vasil hard fork failed to support, with ADA down 4.19% for September and 5.43% for Q3.

ADA fell short of $0.50, with the markets now looking for a sharp increase in projects on the Cardano network. Compared with the previous week, the rise in the number of projects was modest, leaving ADA on the back foot.

Early in the week, ADA struck a Tuesday high of $0.463 before falling to a Wednesday low of $0.425.

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.55 will be the key. However, a fall through the August low of $0.425 would give the bears a look at the 2022 low of $0.384.

ADA sees red.
ADAUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.444. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. Both signals were ADA price negative.

An ADA move through the 50-day EMA would ease selling pressure and give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($0.453). However, following late September’s slide through the 50-day EMA, sub-$0.400 remains in view.

ADA EMAs bearish
ADAUSD 011022 4 Hourly Chart

Polkadot (DOT)

DOT fell by 3.66% to $6.32, Monday through Friday.

A bullish start to the week saw DOT rise from a low of $6.16 to a Tuesday high of $6.81. However, a bearish second half of the week left DOT at sub-$6.40.

The bearish week left DOT down 10.23% for September and 10.48% for Q3.

There were no network updates to provide direction, leaving DOT in the hands of the broader crypto market and the NASDAQ 100.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44. DOT would need to break down resistance at the September high of $8.05 to support a shift in sentiment.

However, DOT has to avoid last week’s $6.16 low to prevent a continued retrace to the 2022 low of $5.97.

DOT under pressure.
DOTUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish.

DOT sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $6.44. The 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA falling back from the 100-day EMA. The indicators delivered negative price signals.

DOT would need to move through the 50-day EMA ($6.44) and the 100-day EMA ($6.59) to see a bearish trend reversal. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at the September low of $5.97.

EMAs bearish.
DOTUSD 011022 4 Hourly Chart

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH also had a bearish Monday to Friday, falling by 0.60% to $1,329.

Tracking the broader market, ETH struck a Tuesday high of $1,401 before sliding to a Wednesday low of $1,254. However, steering clear of the September low of $1,220, ETH revisited $1,374 before easing back into the red.

While the loss for the week was modest, ETH fell by 14.48% in September to reduce the Q3 gain to 24.21%.

ETH continued to struggle in the wake of the Merge. SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s comments relating to Proof-of-Stake cryptos resonated.

Viewing the trends, an ETH return to $1,800 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,031 and a return to $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the September low of $1,220 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year low of $880.

ETH holds steady.
ETHUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,340. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were ETH price negatives.

An ETH move through the 50-day EMA could signal a shift in sentiment and support a return to $1,500. However, ETH would need to break down resistance at the 100-day EMA ($1,388) to target the 200-day EMA at $1,459.

Failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the September low and sub-$1,220 in play.

EMAs bearish.
ETHUSD 011022 4 Hourly Chart

Solana (SOL)

SOL was down 1.86% to $33.2475, Monday through Friday.

Tracking the broader crypto market, SOL rose to a Tuesday high of $35.4300 before falling to a Wednesday low of $31.6400. However, steering clear of the August low of $29.915, SOL wrapped up the Friday session at $33.2475.

Despite the Monday to Friday loss, SOL rose by 5.61% for September to end Q3 with a 1.41% loss. Investor sentiment towards Solana-based NFTs has materially improved, delivering SOL price support.

Looking at the trends, a move through the August high of $48.42 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75.

However, a fall through the August low of $29.9150 would leave the June and the current year low of $25.78 in view.

SOL under pressure.
SOLUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. SOL sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $33.2915.

The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. Both were price negatives.

An SOL breakout from 100-day EMA ($33.2915) and the 50-day EMA ($33.3727) would support a run at the 200-day EMA ($33.8415). However, a bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would give the bears a look at the August low ($29.9150).

EMAs bearish.
SOLUSD 011022 4 Hourly Chart

ADA Price Prediction: Failure to Hit $0.440 Would Test Buyers at $0.425

Key Insights:

  • On Friday, cardano (ADA) fell by 0.68%. Reversing a 0.46% gain from Thursday, ADA ended the third quarter with a 5.43% loss.
  • Input Output HK network updates failed to provide support, with Fed fear stemming from a pickup in US inflation weighing.
  • The technical indicators are bearish. With ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, sub-$0.40 remains in play.

On Friday, ADA fell by 0.68%. Reversing a 0.46% gain from Thursday, ADA ended the month of September down 2.47% to $0.435. It was also a bearish third quarter, with ADA ending the quarter with a 5.43% loss.

A bullish start to the Friday session saw ADA strike an early high of $0.441. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.443, ADA slid to a late low of $0.429. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.430, ADA ended the session at $0.435.

Network updates took a backseat, with ADA succumbing to external market forces. US inflation figures for August weighed on riskier assets, with the NASDAQ 100 dragging the crypto market into the red.

Cardano Updates Failed to Deliver Support as Fed Fear Resurfaces

On Friday, Input Output HK released its weekly development report. Highlights included,

  • Vasil functionality is available on the mainnet.
  • Fund9 results.
  • 100 projects launched on Cardano, up from 99 in the previous week.
  • 1,113 projects are building on Cardano, up from 1,107.
  • 50.4 million transactions, unchanged from the previous week.

While the number of projects launched continued on an upward trend, the markets will be looking for larger weekly increases following the Vasil hard fork.

Recently, Hoskinson talked about hundreds of projects considering the Cardano network after the mainnet hard fork. These would need to materialize to support a sustainable ADA breakout.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 0.23% to $0.434. A bearish start to the day saw ADA fall from an early high of $0.436 to a low of $0.433.

ADA under early pressure.
ADAUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA has to move through the $0.435 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.441. A marked shift in risk sentiment would be needed to support a return to $0.440.

In the case of a breakout session, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.447 and $0.450 would likely come into view. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.459.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.429 in play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.425 and the Second Major Support Level at $0.423. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.411.

ADA support levels in play below the pivot.
ADAUSD 011022 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.444. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.441) and the 50-day EMA ($0.444) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.447) and the 100-day EMA ($0.453). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.464. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave ADA under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 011022 4-Hourly Chart

XRP Price Action Points to a Likely SEC Appeal in the SEC v Ripple Case

Key Insights:

  • On Friday, XRP gave up some of Thursday’s breakout session, falling by 1.42% to end the quarter at $0.4801.
  • While tracking the broader market, expectations of an SEC appeal to the Hinman Court ruling added to the bearish sentiment.
  • However, the technical indicators are bullish, with XRP sitting above the 50-day EMA, supporting a return to $0.55.

On Friday, XRP fell by 1.42%. Partially reversing an 8.49% from Thursday, XRP ended the third quarter up by 44.6% to $0.4801, supported by a 46.7% September gain.

After a relatively bullish start to the Friday session, XRP slid to a mid-day low of $0.46496. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4388, XRP rallied to a high of $0.49943. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5223, XRP fell back to sub-$0.48 before steadying.

XRP tracked the broader crypto market into negative territory, with US inflation and fed fear weighing. However, fears of a likely SEC appeal to Thursday’s Court ruling on the Hinman docs added further price pressure.

The Hinman Doc Court Ruling Removes Hope of an Early Conclusion

Last week, hopes of a swift conclusion to the SEC v Ripple case supported an XRP return to $0.55 before hitting reverse.

On Thursday, Judge Torres overruled the SEC’s objection to the Court denying the SEC motion to protect the William Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.

The latest Court ruling likely erased hope of an early conclusion to the SEC v Ripple case that has dragged on since December 2020.

To date, SEC has failed to turn over the Hinman speech-related documents despite numerous Court orders. The SEC has battled to shield the Hinman documents under the attorney-client privilege, with more than seven motions contesting previous Court decisions. The consensus is that the SEC may even prefer to settle than disclose the content of the documents.

The former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, has been a central figure in the SEC v Ripple case. In a famous 2018 speech, Hinman said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

The SEC has more to lose than just the case against Ripple. SEC Chair Gary Gensler is bidding to win the right to regulate the digital asset space. Currently, the SEC is in a battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for the honor.

Thursday’s ruling was another blow for Gensler and the SEC. The next steps for the SEC will likely include delaying the disclosure of the documents. In a series of tweets, defense attorney James Filan shared his thoughts on the SEC’s options. These included,

  • Ask Judge Torres to reconsider her overruling the SEC objection.
  • Request the Court to certify an appeal of the Court decision.
  • Go to the Court of Appeals on a Petition for Writ of Mandamus.
  • All the above.

While the above maneuvers will not impact the summary of judgment schedule, they could give the SEC a few months of breathing space before producing the docs. The likely delay may add some uncertainty to the outcome of the case. However, the Court rulings continue to go Ripple’s way, which are XRP price positives.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 1.27% to $0.47401. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.48116 before falling to a low of $0.47287.

XRP under pressure.
XRPUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.4815 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4980 and the Friday high of $0.49943. Investors will look out for any updates from the SEC and the Defendants. Talk of an SEC appeal would likely limit the upside.

However, in the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.5160. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5504.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4636 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.45 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4470.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4126.

XRP support levels in play below the pivot.
XRPUSD 011022 Hourly Chart

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.45619. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA. The signals were XRP price positive.

An XRP hold above the 50-day EMA ($0.45619) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.4980) to target R2 ($0.5160). However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($0.45619) would give the bears a run at S1 ($0.4636) and the 100-day EMA ($0.43209). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.40246.

EMAs bullish.
XRPUSD 011022 4-Hourly Chart

BTC Fear & Greed Index Falls on US Inflation Numbers and Fed Fear

Key Insights:

  • On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) ended a mini two-day winning streak with an 0.81% loss to end the quarter at $19,430.
  • In a choppy end to the quarter, a pickup in US inflationary pressure weighed while a downward revision to consumer sentiment limited the damage.
  • However, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index slipped from 21/100 to 20/100.

On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.81%. Reversing a 0.88% gain from Thursday, BTC ended the month down 1.99% to $19,430. It was a third quarter to forget for the BTC bulls, with a 37.25% tumble in July leaving BTC down 38.9% for the quarter. In the previous quarter, BTC slumped by 53.84%.

A choppy start to the Friday session saw BTC fall to an early low of $19,154. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,081, BTC rallied to a mid-afternoon high of $20,181. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,874 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $20,160.

Late in the session, however, BTC tracked the NASDAQ 100 into the red.

Fed and Recession Fears Leave the NASDAQ and BTC in the Red

On Friday, the NASDAQ 100 fell by 1.51% to end the quarter down 4.11%. Fed fear resurfaced at the end of the week, with US inflationary pressures picking up in August. The Core PCE Price Index increased by 4.9%, up from 4.7% in July.

Softer consumer sentiment figures for September provided brief relief before BTC and the NASDAQ reversed session gains. In September, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 58.2 to 58.6, down from a prelim 59.5.

BTC sensitive to US stats and the NASDAQ
NASDAQ – BTCUSD 011022 5 Minute Chart

Fed Fear and market jitters over a recession led the NASDAQ 100 to a third consecutive quarterly loss, the longest losing streak since the Global Financial Crisis. The correlation between BTC and the NASDAQ was evident throughout the three quarters of the year. However, BTC fell for the fourth consecutive quarter.

NASDAQ correlation
NASDAQ – BTCUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Avoids Sub-20 Despite a Bearish Session

Today, the Fear & Greed Index fell from 21/100 to 20/100. A bearish session, fueled by inflation and Fed fear led to the decline. The Index sits deep within the Extreme Fear zone, reflecting investor sentiment towards the Fed and the economic outlook.

In recent weeks, avoiding sub-20/100 has been the key. The bears will be eying a fall to sub-20/100 to signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000. By contrast, the bulls will look for an Index return to 40/100 to support a move toward $25,000.

Fear & Greed Index avoided sub-20
Fear & Greed 011022

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.28% to $19,375. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $19,485 before falling to a low of $19,374.

BTC under early pressure.
BTCUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $19,588 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,023 and the Friday high of $20,181. A BTC move through the Friday would signal a bullish session.

In the case of another extended rally, BTC should test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $20,615 and resistance at $21,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $21,642.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,996 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$18,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,561 will likely limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $17,534.

BTC support levels in play below the pivot.
BTCUSD 011022 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat at the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,372.

The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA flattened on the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed price signals.

A move through the 100-day ($19,530) EMA would give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA ($20,005) and R1 ($20,023). However, a slide through the 50-day EMA ($19,372) would give the bears a run at S1 ($18,996).

EMAs bearish
BTCUSD 011022 4 Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – DOGE and BNB Bucked the Top Ten Trend

Key Insights:

  • It was a mixed Friday for the crypto top ten, with dogecoin (DOGE) bucking the top ten trend.
  • The crypto market recoupled from the NASDAQ 100, which fell for a third consecutive quarter on Fed and recession fears.
  • A mixed session left the total market cap down $48 billion for the session while up $40 billion for the quarter.

It was a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten. DOGE bucked the top tend trend. However, BTC extended its losing streak to four quarters with a bearish Friday session. Despite the bearish session, BTC revisited $20,000 for just the second time in twelve sessions.

On Friday, the crypto market tracked the NASDAQ 100 into the red, with US inflation weighing.

NASDAQ correlation
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 011022 5 Minute Chart

The NASDAQ 100 fell by 1.51% to end the Q3 with a 4.11% loss.

Fed fear resurfaced at the end of the week, with US inflationary pressures picking up in August. The Core PCE Price Index increased by 4.9%, up from 4.7% in July.

Softer consumer sentiment figures for September provided brief relief before the crypto market and the NASDAQ reversed session gains. In September, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 58.2 to 58.6, down from a prelim 59.5.

Fed Fear and market jitters over a recession led the NASDAQ 100 to a third consecutive quarterly loss, the longest losing streak since the Global Financial Crisis. The correlation between the crypto market and the NASDAQ was evident throughout the three quarters of the year.

However, a brief post-Fed policy decision decoupling from the NASDAQ 100 delivered the quarterly rise for the broader crypto market.

Post-Fed decoupling.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 011022 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Ends the Third Quarter on a Bearish Note

On Friday, the crypto market fell to a mid-day low of $893.3 billion before rising to a high of $933.13 billion. However, a bearish end to the Friday session saw the market cap slide back to sub-$900 billion before steadying.

Market reaction to the US inflation numbers reignited Fed fear, leaving the market in the red for the session. The bearish Friday session left the crypto market cap down $48.4 billion for September. However, the market cap rose by $39.8 billion in the third quarter.

Crypto market cap sees bearish Friday.
Total Market Cap 011022 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It is a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten.

DOGE and BNB rose by 1.29% and 0.21%, respectively, to buck the top ten trend.

However, SOL reversed Thursday’s 2.11% gain with a 2.00% loss to lead the way down.

XRP (-1.42%) also struggled while ADA (-0.68%), BTC (-0.81%), and ETH (-0.53%) saw relatively modest losses.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

Terra Classic (LUNC) led the way, rallying by 9.58%, with Quant (QNT) and Helium (HNT) seeing gains of 5.78% and 5.30%, respectively.

However, Chainlink (LINK) led the way down, falling by 4.03%, with Celsius (CEL) and Pancake Swap (CAKE) seeing losses of 3.72% and 3.21%, respectively.

24-Hour Crypto Liquidations Holds Steady Despite Bearish Session

Over 24 hours, total liquidations held steady during the Friday session, despite a pickup in US inflationary pressure. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $92.79 million, up from $91.62 million on Friday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also inched higher. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 28,614 versus 28,061 on Friday morning. Liquidations were down over twelve hours and the final hour of the day (UTC) while up over four hours.

Crypto liquidations hold steady.
Total Market Cap 011022 Hourly Chart

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations stood at $66.05 million, down from $70.50 million on Friday morning, with one-hour liquidations down from $1.97 million to $0.563 million. However, four-hour liquidations were up from $10.46 million to $14.90 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

US Economic Indicators Influence.
Total Market Cap 011022 Hourly Chart

EUR/USD Return to Parity in the Hands of US Inflation and Fed Chatter

It was a busy start to the European session for the EUR. Before the European opening bell, French inflation numbers drew interest.

The French annual inflation rate softened from 5.9% to 5.6%, with consumer prices falling by 0.5% in September. Economists forecast an annual inflation rate of 5.9% and a 0.1% monthly decline in consumer prices.

However, eurozone inflation figures were the key stats of the day. According to prelim figures, the Annual inflation rate accelerated from 9.1% to 10.0%. Economists forecast an annual rate of 9.7%.

According to Eurostat,

  • Energy was the largest contributor, with an estimated annual rate of 40.8% versus 38.6% in August.
  • Food, alcohol, & tobacco had an estimated annual rate of 11.8% versus 10.6% in August.

In the month of September, consumer prices increased by 1.2% after rising by 0.6% in August. Economists forecast a 1.0% rise.

While the stats of influence, ECB member reaction to the latest inflation figures will also draw attention. Frank Elderson and Isabel Schnabel speak today.

EUR/USD Price Action

At the time of writing, the EUR was up 0.10% to $0.98254.

A mixed morning saw the EUR/USD fall to an early low of $0.97943 before rising to a high of $0.98538.

EUR/USD finds early support.
EURUSD 300922 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

The EUR/USD needs to avoid the $0.9756 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.9875. Hawkish ECB member chatter would support a breakout from the morning high of $0.98538.

However, risk appetite will need to improve throughout the session to support a EUR/USD return to $0.9850. In the case of a breakout session, the EUR would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.9935 and resistance at $1.00.

The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.0115.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.9696 into play. However, barring a market flight to safety, the EUR/USD pair would likely avoid sub-$0.9600 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.9576.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.9396.

EUR/USD resistance levels in play above the pivot.
EURUSD 300922 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bearish signal. The EUR/USD sits below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.98399. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

A EUR/USD move through the 100-day EMA ($0.98399) would give the bulls a run at R1 ($0.9875) to target $0.99. The 200-day EMA sits at $0.99384. However, a EUR/USD fall through the 50-day EMA would bring the support levels into play.

EMAs bearish.
EURUSD 300922 4 Hourly Chart

The US Session

It is a busier day ahead on the US economic calendar. Personal spending and Core PCE Price Index will be in the spotlight. While the consumption numbers will influence, inflation will be the market focal point.

A larger than forecast pickup in the annual inflation rate would deliver another dollar breakout session. Economists forecast the Index to rise by 4.7% year-over-year in August, up from 4.6% in July.

Later in the session, finalized Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectation numbers are also out. Any material revisions would influence the dollar.

FOMC member commentary will also draw interest, with members Bowman, Mester and Williams and Fed Vice-Chair Brainard speaking today,

A pickup in inflationary pressure and hawkish Fed chatter would likely see the Dollar Spot Index (DXY) resume its move towards 115.

GBP/USD Return to $1.13 in the Hands of US Inflation and Fed Chatter

It is a busy day for the GBP/USD. From the economic calendar, finalized Q2 GDP numbers drew interest ahead of the European opening bell.

The UK economy expanded by 0.2% (prelim: -0.1%) in Q2 versus 0.8% growth in Q1. Year-over-year, the economy expanded by 4.4% versus a prelim 2.9%. In the first quarter, the economy grew by 8.7%, year-over-year.

According to ONS,

  • Services output increased by 0.2%, with construction output also on the rise.
  • In Q2, services output was revised up from a 0.4% fall
  • However, production output declined by 0.2% in Q2, driven by a 1.1% fall in manufacturing output.
  • Real household expenditure increased by 0.1%.

Later this morning, the Bank of England’s Consumer Credit report for August is due.

From the Bank of England, there are no Monetary Policy member speeches on the docket to influence the Pound. However, more commentary from the UK government and the Bank of England is likely following government assurances on Thursday that the government is working closely with the Bank of England.

GBP/USD Price Action

At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.09% to $1.11266.  A mixed start to the day saw the Pound rise to an early high of $1.12042 before falling to a low of $1.10696.

GBP/USD gives up early gains.
GBPUSD 300922 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

The Pound needs to avoid the $1.0999 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.1237. Following today’s GDP numbers, government and Bank of England chatter will need to continue providing Pound support for a return to $1.12.

In the case of another extended rally, the GBP/USD would likely test resistance at $1.13 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.1357. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.1714.

The market focal point remains the Bank of England policy response to the UK Government’s fiscal measures. Despite Wednesday’s rally and this morning’s early gains, the MPC still needs to contend with a weaker Pound.

A fall through the pivot would see the Pound test the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.0879. In the case of another extended sell-off, the Pound would test buyers at $1.08 before any recovery. However, the Pound should avoid sub-$1.08 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.0642.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1.0284.

GBP/USD resistance levels in play above the pivot.
GBPUSD 300922 1 Hour Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bearish signal. The GBP/USD sits below the 100-day EMA, currently at $1.10172.

The 50-day narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA flattened on the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals. A GBP/USD move through the 100-day EMA ($.11971) and R1 ($1.1237) would give the bulls a look at R2 ($1.1357). The 200-day EMA sits at $1.14351.

However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at S1 ($1.0879).

EMAs bearish
GBPUSD 300922 4-Hourly Chart

The US Session

It is a busier day ahead on the US economic calendar. Personal spending and Core PCE Price Index will be in the spotlight. While the consumption numbers will influence, inflation will be the market focal point.

A larger than forecast pickup in the annual inflation rate would support another dollar breakout session. Economists forecast the Index to rise by 4.7% year-over-year in August, up from 4.6% in July.

Later in the session, finalized Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectation numbers are also out. Any material revisions would influence the dollar.

FOMC member commentary will also draw interest, with members Bowman, Mester and Williams and Fed Vice-Chair Brainard speaking today,

A pickup in inflationary pressure and hawkish Fed chatter would likely see the Dollar Spot Index (DXY) resume its move towards 115.

5 Things to Know in Crypto Today – SEC v Ripple Ruling to Test the SEC

Key Insights:

  • XRP revisited $0.50 on Thursday following the latest SEC v Ripple Court ruling that went Ripple’s way.
  • Metaverse activity continues, with Blackrock (BLK) launching a metaverse-related ETF.
  • Fed fear could reignite later today, with US inflation numbers due alongside a string of FOMC member speeches.

The Securities and Futures Exchange Loses Key Battle Against Ripple

On Thursday, the ongoing SEC v Ripple case took an unexpected turn in favor of Ripple and XRP.

This week, Investors were awaiting a swift end to the case following the Motions for Summary Judgment filings. The filings suggested a possible settlement, with the Defendants filing the Motion for Summary Judgment without a Court ruling on an SEC objection.

However, Judge Torres overruled an SEC objection on Thursday. The decision could have a material bearing on the case. Judge Torres overruled the SEC’s objection to the Court denying the SEC motion to protect the William Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.

The latest ruling is a big blow for the SEC and its chances of overseeing the digital asset space. The SEC had battled to shield the Hinman documents under the attorney-client privilege, with more than seven motions contesting previous Court decisions.

However, Judge Torres has ordered the SEC to turn over all the Hinman speech-related documents.

XRP rallied by 8.49% on Thursday as investors responded to the news. The broader crypto market reaction to the ruling was also positive. The total crypto market cap reversed losses to the end day at $911.4 billion, a $7.4 billion rise on the day.

XRP gets an SEC v Ripple court ruling boost.
XRPUSD 300922 Daily Chart

Big Names Bridge Virtual and Real Worlds to Keep Web3 in the Limelight

The United Arab Emirates continued its drive into the virtual space this week. On Wednesday, the Dubai Ministry of Economy unveiled its headquarters in the metaverse. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are not newcomers to the metaverse, with both setting up shop in the virtual space earlier in the year.

While the UAE continues migrating to the metaverse, other big names have also hit the news this week.

On Thursday, Warner Music Group (WMG) announced a partnership with OpenSea to provide artists with more Web3 opportunities. In the announcement, WMG said the collaboration would,

“Provide a platform for select WMG artists to build and extend their fan communities in Web3.”

Blackrock (BLK) is not wanting to be left behind as more mainstream players go virtual. Bloomberg reported that the asset manager is launching a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) targeting metaverse-related companies.

ETHW Breaks Out on News of Binance Ethereum PoW Mining Pool Launch

On Thursday, Ethereum (Proof-of-Work) (ETHW) rallied by 11.83% to end the day at $12.004. News of Binance launching an ETHW Mining Pool drove ETHW demand in a choppy session.

According to the announcement,

“All users of the ETHW Pool will enjoy zero pool fees for ETHW mining.”

However, Binance added,

“In order to protect Binance users, ETHW will go through the same strict listing review process as Binance does for any other coin/token. Supporting ETHW on Binance Pool does not guarantee the listing of ETHW. Binance does not guarantee any listings as per our internal policy.”

ETHW breakout on pool mining news.
ETHWUSD 300922 Hourly Chart

Fed Fear Remains a Clear and Present Danger for the Crypto Market

This morning, the crypto market cap is down $3.33 billion to $908.07 billion. After a bullish Thursday session, caution has hit the broader crypto market.

Later today, US economic indicators and Fed chatter will test investor resilience. US inflation, personal spending, and consumer sentiment will be in the spotlight.

While revisions to consumer sentiment figures and personal spending will draw interest, the Core PCE Price Index will be the market focal point. Fed fear stemming from the current inflation environment could reignite should inflationary pressures build further.

Economists forecast the Core PCE Price Index to rise by 4.7% year-over-year, up from 4.6% in July.

Crypto market sees modest loss ahead of key US stats and Fed chatter.
Crypto Market Cap 300922 Daily Chart

Bitcoin and Its Carbon Footprint Was Under Scrutiny Once More

A research paper from the University of New Mexico compared Bitcoin’s (BTC) carbon footprint to that of digital crude and not gold.

The paper also noted that,

“Extreme changes would be required to make BTC sustainable (eg., on the renewable mix). POW-based cryptocurrencies are on an unsustainable path. If the industry doesn’t shift its production path away from POW or move towards POS, then this class of digitally scarce goods may need to be regulated and delay will likely lead to increasing global climate damages.”

BTC had a muted reaction to the latest anti-POW paper. This morning, BTC was down 0.55% to $19,482.

BTC showed muted reaction to climate talk.
BTCUSD 300922 Daily Chart

 

BTC Fear & Greed Index Languishes in Extreme Fear of the Fed

Key Insights:

  • On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.88%. Following a 1.69% gain on Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $19,589.
  • It was another choppy session, with a Court ruling from the SEC v Ripple case delivering late support.
  • However, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index slipped from 22/100 to 21/100.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.88%. Following a 1.69% gain on Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $19,589. Significantly, BTC failed to revisit $20,000 for the tenth time in eleven sessions while avoiding sub-$18,500.

After a range-bound morning, BTC fell to an early afternoon low of $18,859. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,668, BTC rallied to a late high of $19,652. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,981, BTC slipped back to sub-$19,600.

Following Wednesday’s choppy session, the NASDAQ 100 influenced through the day. However, a Court ruling from the SEC v Ripple case in favor of Ripple delivered late support.

Since the introduction of the Lummis and Gillibrand Bill in June, the crypto market has sided in favor of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to regulate the digital asset space. The latest ruling could hinder the SEC’s chances of being given the task.

The bullish BTC session came despite the NASDAQ 100 sliding by 2.84%, weighed by Fed fear. This morning, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was down 9.75 points, with investor focus shifting to US inflation figures and Fed chatter.

NASDAQ decoupling.
NASDAQ – BTCUSD 300922 5 Minute Chart

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Slips Deeper into the Extreme Fear Zone

Today, the Fear & Greed Index fell from 22/100 to 21/100. A bullish afternoon crypto session failed to prevent a modest pullback. The Index remains deep within the Extreme Fear zone, reflecting investor sentiment towards the Fed and the economic outlook.

In recent weeks, avoiding sub-20/100 has been the key. The bears will be eying a fall to sub-20/100 to signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000. By contrast, the bulls will look for an Index return to 40/100 to support a move toward $25,000.

Fear & Greed Index in a rut.
Fear & Greed 300922

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 1.16% to $19,362. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $19,705 before falling to a low of $19,320.

BTC under early pressure.
BTCUSD 300922 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $19,367 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,874. A BTC move through the Thursday high of $19,652 would support a bullish session.

In the case of another extended rally, BTC should test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $20,160 and resistance at $20,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $20,953. US inflation numbers will need to be softer to support a breakout session.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,081 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$18,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,574 will likely limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $17,781.

BTC support levels in play below the pivot.
BTCUSD 300922 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $19,531.

The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA pulled back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed price signals.

A move through the 100-day ($19,531) EMAs would give the bulls a run at R1 ($19,874) and the 200-day EMA ($20,035). However, a slide through the 50-day EMA ($19,334) would give the bears a run at S1 ($19,081) and a BTC fall to sub-$19,000.

EMAs bearish.
BTCUSD 300922 4 Hourly Chart

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Appetite Tested by China PMIs

It was a busy start to the Asian session for the AUD/USD and NZD/USD pairs. In the early hours of this morning, New Zealand business consent figures were disappointing.

In August, building consents fell by 1.6%, partially reversing a 4.9% jump in July. However, the Kiwi showed little reaction ahead of private sector PMI numbers from China.

Economic indicators from Australia also failed to move the dial, despite a pickup in private sector credit. In August, private sector credit increased by 0.8%, following a 0.7% rise in July.

Private sector PMI numbers from China weighed on the Aussie and the Kiwi.

In September, the NBS Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.4 to 50.1 versus a forecasted increase to 49.6. The return to growth was bullish for both pairs. However, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.6 to 50.6, with the all-important Caixin Manufacturing PMI declining from 49.5 to 48.1.

According to the Caixin Manufacturing Survey,

  • Total new business fell for a second consecutive month, leading to a decline in output.
  • Weaker demand forced firms to cut purchasing activity and inventories.
  • Input prices fell at the fastest pace since early 2016, with falling demand putting downward pressure on inputs.
  • Selling prices fell at the most marked pace since December 2015 as firms looked to pass on cost savings to customers to bolster sales.

Following today’s stats, the market focus will likely return to the Fed. US economic indicators include personal spending and inflation numbers, which will dictate direction late in the day.

AUD/USD Price Action

At the time of writing, the Aussie was down 0.14% to $0.64906. A choppy start to the day saw Aussie rise to a high of $0.65182 before falling to a low of $0.64892.

AUD/USD under early presure.
AUDUSD Daily 300922

Technical Indicators

The AUD/USD needs to avoid the $0.6487 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6538. The Aussie would need a marked shift in risk sentiment to support a breakout from the Thursday high of $0.65248.

In the case of a breakout session, the Aussie would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6576 and resistance at $0.66. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6666.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6448 into play. However, barring a market flight to safety, the AUD/USD pair would likely avoid sub-$0.6400 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6397.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6307.

AUD/USD resistance levels in play above the pivot.
AUDUSD Hourly 300922

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bearish signal. The AUD/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.65452. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

An AUD/USD move through R1 ($0.6538) and the 50-day EMA ($0.65653) would support a run at R2 ($0.6576) and $0.66. The 200-day EMA sits at $0.67263. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the AUD/USD under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
AUDUSD 4-Hourly 300922

NZD/USD Price Action

This morning, the Kiwi was down 0.25% to $0.57118. The Kiwi rose to a high of $0.57506 before falling to a low of $0.57118.

NZD/USD under pressure
NZDUSD Daily 300922

Technical Indicators

The NZD/USD needs to avoid the $0.5702 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5757. The Kiwi would also need a marked shift in risk sentiment to support a breakout from the Thursday high of $0.57333.

In the case of a breakout session, the Kiwi would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.5788 and resistance at $0.58. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5873.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.5672 into play. However, barring a market flight to safety, the NZD/USD pair would likely avoid sub-$0.5600. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.5617 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.5532.

NZD/USD resistance levels in play above the pivot.
NZDUSD Hourly 300922

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bearish signal. The NZD/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.57626. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA sliding back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

An NZD/USD move through R1 ($0.5757) and the 50-day EMA ($0.57626) would support a run at R2 ($0.5788) to target the 100-day EMA ($0.58629). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.59847. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the NZD/USD under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
NZDUSD 4-Hourly300922

SEC v Ripple Ruling Goes Against the SEC, Giving XRP a Look at $0.55

Key Insights:

  • On Thursday, XRP led the crypto top 100 with an 8.49% rally to end the day at $0.4870.
  • An unexpected Court ruling from the SEC v Ripple case delivered an XRP price breakout.
  • The technical indicators are bullish, with XRP sitting above the 50-day EMA, supporting a return to $0.55.

On Thursday, XRP surged by 8.49%. Following a 0.65% gain on Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.48700.

Bearish through the morning session, XRP fell to an early afternoon low of $0.4259. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4258, XRP surged to a late high of $0.50938.

XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4636 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4783 to end the day at $0.48700. Resistance at $0.500 pegged XRP back.

An unexpected Court ruling from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case delivered the breakout session.

Courts Orders the SEC to Turn Over Hinman Speech-Related Docs

On Thursday, Judge Torres overruled the SEC’s objection to the Court denying the SEC motion to protect the William Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.

Defense attorney James Filan shared the ruling, saying,

“BREAKING: JUDGE TORRES OVERRULES THE SEC’S OBJECTIONS AND ORDERS THE SEC TO TURN OVER THE HINMAN DOCUMENTS.”

The former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, has been a central figure in the SEC v Ripple case. In a famous 2018 speech, Hinman said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

Until late July, the Defendants had the SEC on the defensive, with numerous Court rulings going in favor of the Defendants. The SEC had battled to shield the Hinman documents under the attorney-client privilege, with more than seven motions contesting previous Court decisions.

The recent Motion for Summary judgment filings suggested a possible out-of-court agreement. The market consensus had been that the SEC would do whatever it could to prevent the documents from becoming public records, including a settlement. The defendants filed their Motion for Summary Judgment without a Court ruling on the Hinman docs.

Thursday’s ruling is another blow for the SEC, which is trying to win lawmaker approval to oversee the digital asset space. While XRP responded positively to the news, an appeal to the Court ruling could be on the horizon. The other alternative for the SEC would be to settle.

To date, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has played down a willingness to reach an out-of-court settlement.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 1.23% to $0.48100. A bearish start to the day saw XRP fall from an early high of $0.48766 to a low of $0.47706.

XRP under early pressure.
XRPUSD 300922 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to avoid the $0.4741 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5223. Investors will look out for comments from SEC and the Defendants, with any hint of an SEC appeal likely to limit the upside.

However, in the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.5576. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6411.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4388 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.43 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3906.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3071.

XRP resistance levels in play above the pivot.
XRPUSD 300922 Hourly Chart

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.44952. The 50-day EMA widened from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling away from the 200-day EMA. The signals were XRP price positive.

An XRP hold above the 50-day EMA ($0.44952) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.5223) to target $0.55. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($0.44952) would give the bears a run at S1 ($0.4388) and the 100-day EMA ($0.42586). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.39760.

EMAs bullish.
XRPUSD 300922 4-Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – XRP Leads on SEC v Ripple Ruling

Key Insights:

  • It was a mixed Thursday for the crypto top ten, with XRP leading the way.
  • The crypto market decoupled from the NASDAQ 100, which tumbled by 2.84%, as demand for cryptos picked up amidst the increased volatility across the FX and Equity markets.
  • Another bullish session for the broader crypto market reduced the market cap deficit for September to $47 billion.

It was a mixed Thursday session for the crypto top ten. XRP enjoyed a breakout session, while ETH saw red. Despite a bullish session, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the tenth time in eleven sessions.

Updates from the SEC v Ripple case delivered an XRP price breakout and supported the broader crypto market.

Following last week’s decoupling from the NASDAQ 100, the crypto market decoupled again on Thursday. Heightened uncertainty over the economic outlook, fueled by the central bank and government policy, has also delivered crypto support.

On Thursday, the NASDAQ 100 slid by 2.84%, with the Dow and the S&P500 seeing losses of 1.54% and 2.11%, respectively. While the crypto market decoupled from the US markets on Thursday, US inflation numbers could test investor resilience later today.

NADSAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 300922 5 Minute Chart

Crypto Market Bounces Back in Risk-On US Session

On Thursday, the crypto market cap rose to an early high of $917.8 billion before falling to an early afternoon low of $878.7 billion. However, finding support through the afternoon, the crypto market bounced back to end the day at $911.4 billion, up $7.4 billion for the session.

The bullish Thursday session reduced the September deficit to $47 billion.

Crypto market cap on the rise.
Total Market Cap 300922 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a mixed Thursday session for the crypto top ten.

XRP rallied by 8.49% to lead the way, with SOL rising by 2.11%.

ADA (+0.46%), BNB (+0.96%), BTC (+0.88%), and DOGE (+0.64%) also avoided the red, while ETH bucked the trend, falling by 0.07%.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

XRP and Stellar’s Lumen (XLM) led the way, with gains of 8.49% and 6.81%, respectively. EOS (EOS) was also among the front runners, rising by 5.07%.

At the other end of the table, Helium (HNT) led the way down with a 3.71% loss, with STEPN (GMT) and Reserve Rights (RSR) seeing losses of 3.26% and 2.69%, respectively.

24-HourCrypto Liquidations Ease Back as Risk Aversion Subsides

Over 24 hours, total liquidations fell back during the Thursday session, supported by the decoupling from the NASDAQ 100. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $91.62 million, down from $124.53 million on Thursday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also declined. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 28,061 versus 44,964 on Thursday morning. Liquidations were down over four hours and the final hour of the day (UTC) while up over 12 hours.

Crypto liquidations fall back on bullish session.
Total Crypto Liquidations 300922

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations stood at $70.50 million, up from $56.39 million on Thursday morning. However, four-hour liquidations were down from $14.28 million to $10.46 million, with one-hour liquidations down from $3.06 million to $1.97 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market sees a choppy Thursday session.
Total Market Cap 300922 Hourly Chart

 

USD/JPY Return to 145 Hinged on US Inflation Numbers and Fed Chatter

It was a busy start to the Asian session for the USD/JPY pair, with employment, retail sales, and industrial production numbers from Japan in focus.

The numbers were Yen positive.

In August, Japan’s unemployment rate fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, which was in line with forecasts. The jobs/applications rate increased from 1.29 to 1.32, also Yen positive. Retail sales surged by 4.1% versus a forecasted 2.8%. In July, retail sales rose by 2.4%.

Industrial production jumped by 2.7% in August versus a forecasted 0.2% rise. In July, production increased by 0.8%.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry,

Industries that mainly contributed to the increase were

  • Production machinery
  • Iron, steel, and non-ferrous metals
  • Chemicals (excl. Inorganic, organic chemicals, and medicine).

Industries that mainly contributed to the decrease were,

  • Electronic parts and devices
  • Motor vehicles
  • Inorganic and organic chemicals.

Forecasts were also Yen positive, with production for September seeing an upward revision from 2.9% to 3.2%.

Later this morning, private sector PMI numbers from China and consumer confidence figures from Japan will also influence ahead US inflation number late in the day.

USD/JPY Price Action

This morning, the Dollar/Yen was up 0.02% to 144.436. A mixed start to the day saw the Dollar/Yen fall to an early low of 144.304 before finding support.

USD/JPY finds support.
USDJPY Daily Chart 300922

Technical Indicators

The Dollar/Yen will need to avoid the 144.420 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at 144.794 and the Thursday high of 144.812. While today’s stats from China will provide direction, US inflation and FOMC member chatter will need to be dollar friendly to support a breakout.

In the case of a breakout session, the Dollar/Yen would likely test resistance at 145 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at 145.186.

The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at 145.952.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at 144.028 into play. However, barring a dollar meltdown, the Dollar/Yen would likely avoid sub-144 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at 143.654.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at 142.888.

USDJPY resistance levels in play above the pivot.
USDJPY Hourly Chart 300922

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bullish signal. The Dollar/Yen sits above the 50-day EMA, currently at 143.949. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

Avoiding the 50-day EMA (143.949) would support a breakout from R1 (144.794) to target 145 and R2 (145.186). However, a fall through S1 (144.028) and the 50-day EMA (143.949) would give the bears a look at S2 (143.654). The 200-day EMA sits at 141.252.

EMAs bullish
USDJPY 4 Hourly Chart 300922

Hurricane Ian Spells Trouble for the Fed and Its Inflation Goals

Today, the US State of Florida woke up to the devastation of Hurricane Ian. As residents of the worst-hit parts make the journey home, residents and businesses will begin to assess the financial impact of a storm that peaked at a category four before heading back out to sea.

With parts of the State of Florida still under water and facing high winds and heavy rain, news media outlets report that more than two and a half million are without electricity.

President Joe Biden declared a major disaster, releasing federal-level disaster relief funds to help the State tackle the destruction.

While businesses in the path of Hurricane Ian will face the battle of rebuilding, there will be the indirect effects of the storm on some of the country’s largest multinationals.

Supply Chain Disruption, Fuel Prices, and Inflation

One immediate effect of Hurricane Ian will be on supply chains in and out of Florida.

Across the State, fuel terminals are closed, with oil companies evacuating employees ahead of the storm’s arrival. As reported by Reuters, BP Plc (BP), Chevron Corp (CVX), Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY), and Hess Corp (HES) shut down operations in the State.

In the aftermath of the storm, infrastructure is an issue. Reportedly, fuel trucks can’t reach affected parts of the State, with lengthy waiting times likely to impact businesses reliant upon diesel-fueled generators. Shortage concerns were significant enough for the White House to issue a warning to Oil Companies. President Biden reportedly said,

“Do not – let me repeat, do not, do not – use this as an excuse to raise gasoline prices in America.”

According to the US Joint Economic Committee, gasoline prices surged by 46 cents a gallon immediately after Katrina. The JEC noted that ‘some consumers paid almost twice what they paid the year before.’ Higher gasoline prices would spell more trouble for the US economy and the FED grappling with inflation.

Elevated prices would extend beyond the pump, with businesses having to pass on running costs to consumers. The JEC report noted that ‘fuel prices increased quickly after the supply disruption. However, the JEC also observed that prices decreased more slowly after capacity was restored.’

One other area of interest is the Sunshine State’s citrus industry. According to a CNN report, Ian threatened 75% of the citrus belt with heavy rain and floods. With citrus production reportedly under pressure ahead of the storm, supply shortages would lead to higher food prices, another headache for consumers and for the Fed.

Retailers and the Services Sector Likely to Bear the Brunt of the Pain

Reuters reported that Amazon.com (AMZN) paused operations in some sites, with Walmart (WMT) and Sam Clubs closing down more than 100 stores. Walt Disney (DIS) also shut down theme and water parks on Wednesday and Thursday.

With food and fuel prices keeping US inflation at four-decade highs, retailers will likely add to the inflation problem. As water levels decline, supply issues, and strong demand, will drive prices higher.

While the global equity markets may not have reacted to news updates from the State of Florida, the impact may be evident in the months ahead. Florida is among the top five US states by GDP, with a GDP equivalent to Mexico.

US Equity Markets Tumble as Inflation and Economic Woes Hit Sentiment

At the time of writing, the Dow and the S&P 500 were down 1.64% and 1.88%, respectively, with the NASDAQ 100 sliding by 3.01%.

Amazon.com was down 3.34%, with Disney and Walmart seeing losses of 1.73% and 0.50%, respectively. Oil companies were also in the red, with Chevron down 1.41% and BP PLC falling by 1.28%.

ADA Price Prediction: Bears Eye $0.40 as Bearish Trend Continues

Key Insights:

  • On Wednesday, cardano (ADA) fell by 1.13%. Following a 1.34% loss on Tuesday, ADA ended the day at $0.436.
  • The fifth loss from six sessions came despite positive post-hard fork chatter and a bullish day for the broader crypto market.
  • The technical indicators are bearish. With ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, sub-$0.40 remains in play.

On Wednesday, ADA fell by 1.13%. Following a 1.34% loss on Tuesday, ADA ended the day at $0.436.

A bearish start to the Wednesday session saw ADA fall to a morning low of $0.425. ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.431 before rallying to a late high of $0.443. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.457, ADA fell back to sub-$0.440.

Cardano Updates Fail to Deliver Support Amidst a Bearish Backdrop

On Wednesday, ADA bucked the broader market trend. The crypto market cap rose by $14.1 billion to $910.0 billion. While ADA was not alone in the red, the downward trend follows a similar trend to that of ethereum (ETH) in the wake of the Ethereum Merge.

The decline may not be as significant, but the fall back towards $0.40 comes despite some upbeat Cardano network commentary.

At Mainnet 2022, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson spoke of venture capitalists targeting the Cardano ecosystem in numbers by 2024. Hoskinson had previously talked about hundreds of projects considering the Cardano network after the mainnet hard fork.

This week, there were reports of Emurgo, Cardano’s developer, planning to invest a substantial sum to support the development of the Cardano ecosystem.

Considering the recent trend and network news, investors will likely be looking for a surge in projects on the Cardano network before investing. Considering the timelines shared by Hoskinson for VCs to hit the ecosystem, investors may need to be patient. ADA was down 27.2% from an August high of $0.595.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 0.69% to $0.433. A mixed start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.439 before falling to a low of $0.429.

ADA under pressure.
ADAUSD 290922 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA has to move through the $0.435 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.444. A marked shift in risk sentiment would be needed to support a breakout from the Wednesday high of $0.443.

In the case of a breakout session, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.453 would likely come into view. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.471.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.426 in play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.420 and the Second Major Support Level at $0.417. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.399.

ADA support levels in play below the pivot.
ADAUSD 290922 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.448. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.444) and the 50-day EMA ($0.448) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.453) and the 100-day EMA ($0.456). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.466. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave ADA under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 290922 4-Hourly Chart