An Economic Recovery in the Waiting. COVID-19 Vaccination Rates Suggest a Longer Wait for Some

Economic Recovery

Following the 2nd quarter economic meltdown of 2020, major economies rebounded in the 3rd quarter.

A reopening of borders and businesses spurred the recovery. Many hoped that the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic had passed.

Going through the 4th quarter, however, conditions deteriorated rapidly once more.

The number of COVID-19 cases soared across the U.S, Europe, and beyond.

Amidst the doom and gloom, the Chinese economy provided a glimmer of hope.

Last week, 4th quarter GDP numbers impressed. While a spike in new COVID-19 cases in China muted the impact of the stats on riskier assets but the recovery was plane to see.

Other economies, have been less fortunate.

Those most at risk of an extended period of contraction are economies most dependent upon consumption and tourism.

For now, the global financial markets appear to be signaling a more uniform global economic recovery through 2021.

The latest COVID-19 numbers, vaccination rates, and containment measures paint a different picture, however.

The Economic Calendar

Next week, 4th quarter GDP figures are due out of the U.S, Germany, and France to name but a few.

Looking at the forecasts, the U.S economy is projected to grow by 4.4% in the 4th quarter.

It’s a different story for France and Germany, however.

Extended lockdown periods through late 2020 will likely lead to another sizeable quarterly contraction.

Economists have forecasted the French economy to contract by 3.2% and Germany’s by 4.6%.

Relative to the 2nd quarter of 2020, the contractions are relatively mild. By historical standards, however, these are quite dire forecasts.

Vaccinations Rates

According to the Bloomberg Vaccination Tracker, the U.S vaccination rate was 5.23 doses per 100 people as at 20th January.

With President Biden’s aim of 100 million vaccinations in 100 days, this is expected to accelerate in the coming weeks. The numbers have already picked up from quite dire levels just last week. As at 10th January, the U.S had had a vaccination rate of just 2.44 doses per 100 people.

While other countries face supply issues, this has not been the case for the U.S. To put it into perspective, 48% of shots distributed to states in the U.S have been administered. In numeric terms, 17.18 million doses have been administered.

Much will now depend on whether the U.S President meets his 100 million target or needs to reintroduce lockdown measures.

At the time of writing, the total number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S sits at 24,998,975, with the total number of deaths hitting 415,894.

Any acceleration in new cases and the U.S government may have little choice but to contain the spread. With labor market conditions still in dire straits, this would have painful consequences for the U.S economy.

The only goods news is that the Democrats now control both houses. Delivering fiscal support should be easier. Bringing unemployment back to pre-pandemic levels, however, is likely to be a far more difficult task.

Elsewhere, a number of governments have made strong progress in driving vaccinations. This bodes well for more rapid economic recoveries. These nations are few and far between, however.

Israel continues to lead the charge, with a vaccination rate of 32.56 doses per 100 as at 20th January. The U.A.E remains ranked 2 in terms of vaccination rates. (20.11 doses per 100 as at 19th Jan).

As at the 20th January, the UK is also at the top end of the table, with a vaccination rate of 7.59 doses per 100.

The EU

For the EU, however, the slow authorization of COVID-19 vaccines and apparent bad planning has been reflected in the figures.

EU wide, the vaccination rate stood at just 1.51 doses per 100 people as at 20th January. When considering the fact that the total number of COVID-19 cases is more than 10 million, this remains a concern.

Not only are we likely to see economic divergence globally but also within the EU.

Germany’s vaccination rate stood at 1.56 doses per 100 as at 20th January. By contrast, France’s vaccination rate was just 1.07.

Italy and Spain were amongst leading EU member states with rates of 2.07 and 2.21 doses per 100. These rates are also on the lower end for developed nations, however.

For a full breakdown of vaccination rates by country, please visit Bloomberg Vaccination Tracker page here.

Supply and Demand

Since the approval of vaccines in the U.S, Europe, and beyond, supply has become a focal point.

Back in December, we had highlighted supply as a key consideration as governments procure vaccines.

Some governments have been able to secure enough vaccines to inoculate 100% of their populations.

Others will barely touch the surface and will have to wait.

When considering the vaccination rates today and the need for 2 doses, it could be a long wait.

Some governments will undoubtedly be wanting to avoid going into another winter once this winter season passes.

Until there are more vaccine options and greater supply, however, this remains a credible risk for some.

As things stand, therefore, we continue to see Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca as two key players in the fight against the global pandemic.

Johnson & Johnson is key due to its goal to deliver a single dose vaccine. AstraZeneca remains key due to is affordable and easy to transport vaccine, not to mention manufacturing capabilities.

Government agencies including the EMA will need to authorize the use of these vaccines more hastily to support a speedier economic recovery.

The markets can then begin to look to developing economies that have continued to struggle since the beginning of the pandemic. Failure of the likes of Europe to catch up with the U.S and even the UK, could lead to an economic decoupling.

The Latest COVID-19 Numbers

At the time of writing, there were a total of 97,384,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 2,085,507 related deaths.

By geography, the U.S had reported 24,998,975 cases and 415,894 COVID-19 related deaths.

India reporting 10,611,719 cases, with Brazil reporting 8,639,868 cases.

Sitting behind Russia (3,655,839) remained the UK (3,505,754).

France (2,965,117), Italy (2,414,166), Spain (2,412,318), and Germany (2,090,161) reported a combined 9,881,762 cases.

Looking Ahead

Existing vaccine providers are going to need to materially increase supply in order to support the bullish outlook towards the economic recovery.

Market sensitivity to reports of any supply constraints will likely build in the current quarter. Failure to ramp up vaccination rates coupled with supply constraints would have an even more material impact on risk sentiment. All of this is before considering a continued rise in new cases and further extensions to lockdown measures.

For now, the pressure will be on the likes of AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson to deliver.

A marked increase in supply from Pfizer Inc. and Moderna Inc. would also be welcome.

At some point, however, the focus may well shift to how well or how badly governments have performed.

The U.S Dollar Hits Reverse Ahead of the ECB Monetary Policy Decision and Press Conference

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar and the Japanese Yen were in action early this morning.

Later this morning, the Bank of Japan delivers its first monetary policy decision of the year. While the markets expect the BoJ to continue to leave policy unchanged, the latest wave of the pandemic will be a concern.

Vaccination rates will need to materially pick up globally, not just in Japan, to support a sustained economic recovery.

Away from the economic calendar, sentiment towards the U.S economic outlook provided direction early on. Hopes of significant fiscal support drove demand for riskier assets early on.

For the Japanese Yen

The trade surplus widened from ¥366.1bn to ¥751.0bn in December 2020. Economists had forecast a widening to ¥942.8bn.

According to the Ministry of Finance,

  • Exports rose by 2.0% in the month of December, while imports slid by 11.6%.
  • For the calendar year, 2020, exports slid by 11.1%, with imports tumbling by 13.8% to leave the trade surplus at ¥674.73bn.

By geography,

  • Exports to Asia fell by 5.1%, in spite a 2.7% increase of exports to China. Imports from Asia saw a more marked 7.5% decline in the calendar year 2020.
  • To the U.S, exports tumbled by 17.3%, with imports from the U.S sliding by 14.0%.
  • Exports to Europe slid by 15.1%, driven by sizeable declines to Germany (-14.9%) and the UK (-24.3%). Imports fell by 13.7 from Europe in the calendar year.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥103.547 to ¥103.572upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.01% to ¥103.55 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Aussie Dollar

Employment figures were in focus this morning.

According to the ABS,

  • Employment rose by 50k in December, following a 90.0k increase in November, which was in line with forecasts.
  • Full employment increased by 37.5k, following an 84.2k jump in November.
  • As a result, the unemployment rate slipped from 6.8% to 6.7%, while the participation rate rose from 66.1% to 66.2%.
  • Employment finished the year 0.7% below the March level, having fallen 6.7% between March and May.
  • The recovery in employment was largely as a result of a more marked recovery in part-time employment, however.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77551 to $0.77516 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.27% to $0.7768.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.31% to $0.7194.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.

While there are no stats, the ECB is scheduled to deliver its first monetary policy decision of the year.

With the markets expecting the ECB to stand pat on policy, the ECB press conference will likely be the key driver.

Last week, ECB President Lagarde stood by the ECB’s growth forecasts for this year, in spite of extended lockdown measures.

We can expect plenty of discussion on price stability and the outlook during the presentation and the Q&A.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 vaccine news along with the latest COVID-19 figures will provide direction.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.16% to $1.2125.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. CBI Industrial Trend Orders are due out later today.

With little else for the markets to consider, expect the stats to influence.

Ultimately, however, COVID-19 news updates will likely remain the key driver near-term.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.15% to $1.3674.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include the weekly jobless claims figures and December’s Philly FED Manufacturing PMI.

Housing sector data for December, including building permits and housing starts are also due out. These will likely have a muted impact on risk sentiment, however.

Away from the economic calendar, President Biden’s first moves as U.S President together with COVID-19 news will also influence.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.15% to 90.340.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day on the economic data front. Economic data is limited to house price figures that will likely have a muted impact on the Loonie.

Chatter from Capitol Hill and COVID-19 news will be the key drivers on the day, with little else for the markets to consider.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.13% to C$1.2620 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – January 21st, 2021

EOS

EOS fell by 0.20% on Wednesday. Following on from a 1.02% decline on Tuesday, EOS ended the day at $2.7830.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning intraday high $2.8350 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2.9461, EOS slid to a late afternoon intraday low $2.6319.

EOS fell through the first major support level at $2.6436 before revisiting $2.80 levels.

A bearish end to the day, however, saw EOS fall back to sub-$2.788 levels and into the red.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 1.11% to $2.7522. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $2.7891 before falling to a low $2.7451.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOSUSD 210121 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid a fall back through the $2.7500 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2.8680.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break out from Wednesday’s high $2.8350.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $3.00 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2.9531.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the pivot level at $2.7500 would bring the first major support level at $2.6649 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer of sub-$2.60 levels. The second major support level sits at $2.5469.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2.6649

First Major resistance Level: $2.8680

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen fell by 1.44% on Wednesday. Following on from a 2.20% decline on Tuesday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the day at $0.2938.

A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning intraday high $0.3019 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.3141, Stellar’s Lumen slid to a late afternoon intraday low $0.2750.

The reversal saw Stellar’s Lumen fall through the first major support level at $0.2879 and the 38.2% FIB of $0.2823.

Finding support at the second major support level at $0.2776, Stellar’s Lumen revisited $0.295 levels before easing back.

The partial recovery saw Stellar’s Lumen break back through the 38.2% FIB and the first major support level to end the day at $0.293 levels.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down by 1.01% to $0.2908. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning high $0.2947 before falling to a low $0.2904.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 210121 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to avoid a fall through the $0.2902 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.3055 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break back through to $0.30 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Wednesday’s high $0.3019 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test the second major resistance level at $0.3171.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.2902 pivot would bring the 38.2% FIB of $0.2823 and the first major support level at $0.2786 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.027 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2633.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2786

First Major Resistance Level: $0.3055

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3187

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2823

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1850

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX fell by 2.24% on Wednesday. Following on from a 3.17% slide on Tuesday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.03017.

A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning intraday high $0.03143 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.03229, Tron’s TRX slid to a late afternoon intraday low $0.02872.

Tron’s TRX fell through the first major support level at $0.02989 and the second major support level at $0.02889.

More significantly, Tron’s TRX also fell through the 23.6% FIB of $0.0291 before revisiting $0.031 levels in the final hour.

A bearish end to the day, however, saw Tron’s TRX fall back to sub-$0.031 levels and into the red.

In spite of the late pullback, Tron’s TRX avoided a fall back through the first major support level and the 23.6% FIB.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 0.86% to $0.03044. A mixed start to the day saw rise to an early morning high $0.03099 before falling to a low $0.02990.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRXUSD 210121 Daily Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX need to avoid a back fall through the $0.0.03011 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.03149 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to breakout from Wednesday’s high $0.03143.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $0.032 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally Tron’s TRX could resistance at $0.033 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.03282.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $0.03011 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $0.0291 and the first major support level at $0.2878 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of sub-$0.028 levels. The second major support level at sits at $0.02740.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.02878

First Major Resistance Level: $0.03149

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.03211

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0428

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0648

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – January 21st, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 0.67% on Wednesday. Following an 8.70% rally from Tuesday, Ethereum ended the day at $1,376.88.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high $1,408.50 before hitting reverse.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $1,455, Ethereum slid to a mid-day intraday low $1,234.01.

Ethereum fell through the first major support level at $1,267 before a late recovery to $1,376 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.36% to $1,371.99. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $1,390.00 before falling to a low $1,364.08.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 210121 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $1,340 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $1,446.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Wednesday’s high $1,408.50.

Barring an extended crypto rally, Wednesday’s high and the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Ethereum could test resistance at $1,600 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1,514.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $1,340 pivot would bring the first major support level at $1,271 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should continue to steer clear of sub-$1,200 levels. The second major support level sits at $1,165.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1,271

Pivot Level: $1,340

First Major Resistance Level: $1,446

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,119

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $921

62% FIB Retracement Level: $600

Litecoin

Litecoin fell by 1.40% on Wednesday. Reversing a 0.06% decline from Tuesday, Litecoin ended the day at $149.77.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning intraday high $156.30 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $162.02, Litecoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $138.53.

Litecoin fell through the first major support level at $145.98 and the second major support level at $140.05.

More significantly, Litecoin also fell through the 23.6% FIB of $148 before finding support.

Steering clear of sub-$130 levels, Litecoin revisited $150 levels late in the day before easing back.

The partial recovery saw Litecoin break back through the major support levels and the 23.6% FIB of $148.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.43% to $149.12. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $150.35 before falling to a low $148.61.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 210121 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $148.20 pivot level and the 23.6% FIB of $148 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $157.87.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from $155 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at $170. The second major resistance level sits at $165.97.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $148.20 pivot level and the 23.6% FIB of $148 would bring the first major support level at $140.10 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $130.43.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $140.10

Pivot Level: $148.20

First Major Resistance Level: $157.87

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $148

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $125

62% FIB Retracement Level: $87

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 0.40% on Wednesday. Following a 2.87% gain from Tuesday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.29534.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning low $0.28235 before making a move.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Ripple’s XRP jumped to a mid-morning intraday high $0.31200.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $0.3212, Ripple’s XRP slid to a late morning intraday low $0.28021.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2757, Ripple’s XRP moved back through to $0.295 levels and into the green.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP up by 0.09% to $0.29560. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.29715 before falling to a low $0.29499.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 210121 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall back through the $0.2959 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $0.3115 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $0.30 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance and Wednesday’s high $0.31200 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $0.33 levels. The second major resistance sits at $0.3276. Ripple’s XRP would need support to breakout from the 23.6% FIB of $0.3172, however.

Failure to move through the $0.2959 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2797 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.27 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2641.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2797

Pivot Level: $0.2959

First Major Resistance Level: $0.3115

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6274

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5285

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3687

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

European Equities: Economic Data from the Eurozone and the U.S and the ECB in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Thursday, 21st January

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan)

ECB Press Conference

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Jan) Prelim

Friday, 22nd January

French Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Prelim

French Services PMI (Jan) Prelim

German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Prelim

German Services PMI (Jan) Prelim

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Prelim

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Jan) Prelim

Eurozone Services PMI (Jan) Prelim

The Majors

It was a bullish day for the European majors on Wednesday, with the DAX30 rising by 0.77% to lead the way. The EuroStoxx600 and CAC40 ended the day with gains of 0.72% and 0.53% respectively.

Economic data was on the lighter side, leaving the majors in the hands of corporate earnings and Inauguration Day.

With Joe Biden sworn in as U.S President, the markets are expecting plenty of fiscal stimulus to drive a U.S economic recovery.

Coupled with a planned drive to ramp up vaccination rates, the markets bet on a more rapid economic recovery.

Demand for riskier assets was broad-based as a result, also leading to a pullback in the U.S Dollar.

The Stats

It was a busier day on the economic calendar. Economic data included finalized inflation figures for the Eurozone and wholesale inflation figures from Germany.

In December, Germany’s producer price index rose by 0.8%, month-on-month, following a 0.2% increase in November. Economists had forecast a 0.7% rise.

According to Destatis,

  • The producer prices of industrial products were 0.2% higher in December 2020 than in December 2019.
  • Energy prices, however, were on average 0.1% lower than in December 2019.
  • Excluding energy, producer prices were 0.3% higher than in December 2019.

For the Eurozone, consumer prices rose by 0.3% in December, reversing a 0.3% decline from November.

While the annual core rate of inflation held steady at 0.2%, consumer prices fell by a further 0.3%, year-on-year, in December.

According to Eurostat,

  • Annual inflation was stable at -0.3% for a 4th consecutive month in December.
  • A year earlier, the annual rate of inflation had stood at 1.3%.
  • Greece (-2.4%), Slovenia (-1.2%), and Ireland (-1.0%) registered the lowest annual rates.
  • The highest contribution to the annual euro areas inflation came from services (+0.30 percentage points).
  • Food, alcohol & tobacco contributed +0.25 pp.

From the U.S

There was no economic data from the U.S to provide the European majors with direction late in the session.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Wednesday. Daimler rallied by 3.51%, with BMW and Volkswagen ending the day up by 3.01% and by 3.13% respectively. Continental rose by a more modest 1.82% on the day.

Daimler led the way mid-week as the markets responded to the unveiling of  the latest Mercedes-Benz’s electric compact SUV.

It was a mixed day for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank fell by 0.99%, while Commerzbank rose by 0.93%.

From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Soc Gen gained 0.70% and 0.59% respectively, with Credit Agricole rising by 1.54%.

It was a mixed day for the French auto sector. Peugeot ended the day flat, while Renault gained 1.86% on the day.

Air France-KLM bucked the general trend, falling by 0.86%, while Airbus SE ended the day up by 1.22%.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive day in the red for the VIX on Wednesday, marking the 8th daily loss of the year. Following a 4.52% fall on Tuesday, the VIX slid by 7.14% to end the day at 21.58.

The NASDAQ and the S&P500 rallied by 1.97% and by 1.39% respectively, with the Dow gaining by 0.83%.

A lack of economic data left the markets in the hands of corporate earnings and hopes of sizeable fiscal support from the new U.S administration.

Fresh record highs came as President Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th U.S President.

On the corporate earnings front, Netflix was a front runner off the back of its earnings release, surging by 16.85%.

VIX 210121 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Eurozone consumer confidence figures are due out late in the session to provide the European majors with direction.

Ahead of the stats, the ECB is in action this afternoon. With the markets expecting the ECB to stand pat on policy, the press conference will be the key driver.

From the U.S, the weekly jobless claims figures will also influence, though expect a delayed response with the release coinciding with the ECB press conference.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news, together with updates from Capitol Hill will also influence.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 18.5 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

COVID-19 Vaccine Update – Some EU Member States Break Ranks

EU Vaccine News

Following the EMA’s decision to bring forward the review of the AstraZeneca vaccine, EU member states are looking to get ahead in placing orders.

Over the weekend, news hit the wires that the Irish government was in talks to secure delivery of the yet to be authorized vaccine.

Pfizer Inc. supply issues experienced across member states has resulted in bid to secure supply from elsewhere.

Ireland expects to receive more than 3 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine. By receiving the vaccine ahead of the EMA recommendation and EU Commission authorization, it would mean that the vaccine could be administered immediately upon authorization.

Last week, the EMA had indicated that upon recommendation, the vaccine would be widely available by mid-February.

Ireland would therefore be around 2-weeks ahead of other EU member states. More importantly, Ireland may also avoid jostling with other EU member states for supply.

Having seen Britain go it alone on the vaccine front and approve the AstraZeneca vaccine late last year, Britain’s vaccination rates are well ahead of any of those seen across the EU.

Vaccinations

According to the Bloomberg Vaccination Tracker, Ireland’s vaccination rate stood at 1.90 doses per 100 people as at 13th January.

While well short of the likes of the Israel, the U.A.E and even the UK and the U.S, its well ahead of many other EU member states.

To put it into perspective, the EU has a vaccination rat of 1.41 doses per 100 people as at 19th January.

Italy and Spain had rates of 2.01 and 2.08 doses per 100 as at 19th January.

By contrast, however, France had a vaccination rate of just 0.90 doses per 100. The numbers from the Netherlands were even more alarming. As at 19th January, the Netherlands had a vaccination rate of just 0.45 doses per 100 people.

With the broad spread of rates, it is not wholly surprising that some EU member states are looking to jump the gun in securing vaccine supply.

Ireland is certainly not amongst the worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

At the time of writing, Ireland had a total of 176,839 total COVID-19 cases and 2,708 related deaths.

While well below the numbers reported from the likes of France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, there is some urgency globally to secure more vaccines.

New strains of the coronavirus have proved significantly more virulent and as a result could have a significant impact on economic conditions.

Germany has already announced an extension to its lockdown. Merkel also talked of a possible need to shut down borders in order to protect the country from new strains.

Without an adequate vaccine supply and vaccination drive, the impact of the new strains could be devastating.

COVID-19 numbers from the UK had certainly sent a warning to neighboring countries over the holidays.

Global Numbers

Leading the charge geographically, by vaccination rate, continues to be Israel.

As at 19th January, Israel had a reported vaccination rate of 29.78 doses per 100, up from 25.91 as at 17th January.

The U.A.E continued to trail Israel in 2nd place, with a rate of 19.21 doses per 100.

Sitting behind Bahrain in 3rd was the UK, with a vaccination rate of 7.07 doses per 100. This was up from 6.45 doses per 100 as at 17th January.

Looking at the numbers, A marked increase in vaccination rates is going to be needed to support a speedier economic recovery.

Further extensions to existing lockdown periods could begin to hit the prospects of a 2nd quarter recovery.

While we see economic divergence globally, stemming from marked differences in vaccination rates, the same is likely within the EU.

For the Eurozone economic outlook, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands will need to materially ramp up vaccinations.

It will be interesting to see whether the issue is raised during the ECB press conference tomorrow. How does the ECB see growth when considering the divergence in vaccination rates across member states?

For a full breakdown of vaccination rates by country, please visit Bloomberg Vaccination Tracker page here.

The Latest COVID-19 Numbers

At the time of writing, there were a total of 96,625,755 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 2,065,698 related deaths.

By geography, the U.S had reported 24,806,964 cases and 411,486 COVID-19 related deaths.

India reporting 10,596,442 cases, with Brazil reporting 8,575,742 cases.

Sitting behind Russia (3,612,800) remained the UK (3,466,849).

France (2,938,333), Italy (2,400,598), Spain (2,370,742), and Germany (2,071,473) reported a combined 9,781,146 cases.

Looking Ahead

The AstraZeneca vaccine remains the key to bringing the pandemic under control near-term. This is largely due to an expected abundance of supply.

When considering the current vaccination rates, however, there is one other factor to consider.

Pfizer Inc., Moderna Inc., and AstraZeneca’s vaccines are 2-dose vaccines. This means that another round of vaccines is going to be needed for effective protection against the virus.

When considering current vaccination rates, some of the more adversely affected nations may not be anywhere 50% vaccinated before the 2nd quarter.

This is yet another factor for the markets to consider in terms of any economic recovery.

The availability of a single dose vaccine may not be far off, with Johnson & Johnson set to release data imminently. In all reality, however, supply constraints could limit the availability of a single dose vaccine beyond U.S borders.

Johnson & Johnson Numbers

Johnson & Johnson had previously projected to deliver 12 million doses by the end of February and 100 million doses by the end of June.

According to recent reports, however, Johnson & Johnson may a number of months behind.

That suggests that 1 billion doses by the end of 2021 may also be an ambitious target.

Pfizer Inc., Moderna Inc., AstraZeneca, Sputnik V, and China’s two vaccines will be key near-term. Ultimately, however, it will likely be a single dose vaccine that brings an end to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Availability across the globe is going to be needed, however, for the pandemic to truly come to an end.

As we have seen in the early days of the COVID-19 vaccines, richer nations have cornered much of the vaccine supply.

This will also need to change for the number of new cases across the globe to begin falling.

Inauguration Day and the Bank of Canada Put the Greenback and the Loonie in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar and the PBoC were in action early this morning.

For the Aussie Dollar

The Westpac Consumer Confidence Index fell by 4.5% to 107.0 in January. In December, the Index had stood at 112.0.

According to the January report,

  • Domestic border closures and COVID-19 clusters together with a sharp rise in new COVID-19 cases overseas weighed on sentiment.
  • In spite of the fall, the index is up by 14.6% from a year ago and stood 41.5% higher than the pandemic low last April.

Looking at the key components:

  • Economic conditions next 12-months slid by 8.3%, with family finances vs a year ago falling by 7.0%.
  • In spite of the decline both were up compared with a year ago.
  • Family finances next 12-months saw a more modest 0.3% decline, with economic conditions next 5-years down by 4.5%.
  • Compared with this time last year, economic conditions next 5-years was up by 31.6%, with economic conditions next 12-months up by 21.1%.
  • Time to buy a major household item was down by 2.8%, while up by 4.8% compared with this time last year.
  • Time to buy a dwelling bucked the trend, however, rising by 0.2%. This was supported by sentiment towards house prices.
  • The House Price Expectations Index increased by 1.1%.
  • Sentiment towards unemployment was disappointing, however. The Unemployment Expectations Index was up by 11.9%, while down by 11.2% compared with a year ago.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77100 to $0.77102 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.21% to $0.7711.

From China

This morning, the PBoC left loan prime rates unchanged in the central bank’s first monetary policy decision of the year.

In line with market expectations, the 1-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.85%, with the 5-year unchanged at 4.65%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77026 to $0.77072 upon announcement of the decision.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.13% to ¥103.77 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.04% to $0.7125.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. German wholesale inflation figures for December and finalized December inflation figures for the Eurozone are due out later today.

Barring marked revision from prelim Eurozone inflation figures, we don’t expect the stats to have too much influence, however.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 vaccine news along with the latest COVID-19 figures and Italian politics will provide direction.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.10% to $1.2141.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. December inflation and wholesale inflation figures are due out of the UK later today.

A pickup in inflationary pressures should deliver support for the Pound. Wholesale inflationary pressures will also need to see a pickup, however.

While the stats will influence, the market focus will remain on the UK Government’s progress towards ending the COVID-19 pandemic.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.12% to $1.3647.

Across the Pond

It’s yet another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Greenback and the broader markets with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Greenback in the hands of chatter from Capitol Hill and COVID-19 news.

It’s Inauguration Day, so expect market focus to be on Capitol Hill. Upon entering the Oval Office, Biden is expected to begin repealing Trump policy.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.12% to 90.388.

For the Loonie

It’s a busy day on the economic data front. December inflation figures are due out ahead of the Bank of Canada’s first monetary policy decision of the year.

With the markets likely to hold out for the BoC rate statement and press conference, inflation figures will likely have a relatively muted impact on the Loonie.

Rising crude oil prices and optimism towards the economic outlook is likely to leave the BoC in a holding pattern. It remains to be seen, however, whether there’s any hawkish chatter.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.11% to C$1.2721 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – January 20th, 2021

EOS

EOS fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Partially reversing a 1.81% gain from Monday, EOS ended the day at $2.7908.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to a mid-morning high $2.9341 before hitting reverse.

EOS broke through the first major resistance level at $2.8917 before sliding to a late morning intraday low $2.6517.

The sell-off saw EOS fall through the first major support level at $2.7095 before striking a late afternoon intraday high $2.9542.

EOS broke back through the first major resistance level before a slide back to sub-$2.80 levels and into the red.

In spite of the 2nd sell-off, EOS steered clear of the first major support level at $2.7095.

At the time of writing, EOS was up by 0.69% to $2.8100. A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to an early morning low $2.7676 before rising to a high $2.8249.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOSUSD 200121 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid a fall back through the $2.7989 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2.9461.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break back through to $2.90 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Tuesday’s high $2.9542 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $3.10 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $3.1014.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the pivot level at $2.7989 would bring the first major support level at $2.6436 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer of sub-$2.60 levels. The second major support level sits at $2.4964.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2.6436

First Major resistance Level: $2.9461

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen fell by 2.20% on Tuesday. Reversing a 0.53% gain from Monday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the day at $0.2981.

A bullish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to a late morning intraday high $0.3198 before hitting reverse.

Stellar’s Lumen broke through the first major resistance level at $0.3115 and the second major resistance level at $0.3180.

Coming up against resistance at $0.32, however, Stellar’s Lumen slid to a late intraday low $0.2936.

Stellar’s Lumen fell through the first major support level at $0.2958 before briefly revisiting $0.3050 levels.

A bearish end to the day, however, saw Stellar’s Lumen fall back to end the day at sub-$0.30 levels.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was up by 0.33% to $0.2991. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to an early morning low $0.2950 before striking a high $0.3016.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 200121 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to move through the $0.3038 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.3141 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break back through to $0.31 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Tuesday’s high $0.3198 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test the second major resistance level at $0.3300.

Failure to move through the $0.3038 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2879 and the 38.2% FIB of $0.2823 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.028 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2776.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2879

First Major Resistance Level: $0.3141

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3187

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2823

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1850

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX slid by 3.17% on Tuesday. Reversing a 3.42% rally from Monday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.03089.

A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to a late morning intraday high $0.03269 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.03311, Tron’s TRX slid to a late intraday low $0.03029.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.02957, Tron’s TRX revisited $0.0316 levels before sliding back into the deep red.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 0.18% to $0.03143. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning high $0.03211 before falling to a low $0.03102.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRXUSD 200121 Daily Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to avoid a back fall through the $0.03129 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.03229 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break back through to $0.032 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Tuesday’s high $0.03269 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally Tron’s TRX could resistance at $0.034 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.03369.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $0.03129 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.02989 and the 23.6% FIB of $0.0291 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of sub-$0.029 levels. The second major support level at sits at $0.02889.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.02989

First Major Resistance Level: $0.03229

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.03211

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0428

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0648

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – January 20th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 2.17% on Tuesday. Reversing a 2.22% gain from Monday, Bitcoin ended the day at $35,890.0.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $37,450.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $37,889, Bitcoin slid to a mid-morning low $36,299.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $35,176, however, Bitcoin rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $37,936.6.

Continuing to fall short of the first major resistance level at $37,889 Bitcoin slid to a final hour intraday low $35,863.0.

In spite of the late sell-off, Bitcoin continued to steer clear of the first major support level at $35,176.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, in spite of the latest reversal. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $18,504 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was another mixed day on Tuesday.

Binance Coin and Chainlink slid by 6.05% and by 6.79% respectively to lead the way down.

Cardano’s ADA (-1.04%) also saw red on the day.

It was a bullish start to the week for the rest of the majors, however.

Ethereum rallied by 8.70% to lead the way.

Crypto.com Coin (+5.12%), and Ripple’s XRP (+2.87%) also found strong support.

Bitcoin Cash SV (+0.10%), Litecoin (+0.06%) and Polkadot (+0.92%) trailed the front runners, however.

In the current week, the crypto total market cap fell to a Monday low $958.80bn before rising to a Tuesday high $1,080.72bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,029.91bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 67.47% before falling to a Tuesday low 65.20%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 65.65%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 1.14% to $36,298.6. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $35,602.0 before rising to a high $36,353.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Binance Coin (-0.33%) and Chainlink (-1.85%) saw red to buck the trend early on, with Bitcoin Cash SV flat.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Crypto.com Coin was up by 4.04% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 200121 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $36,563 to bring the first major resistance level at $37,263 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $37,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, first major resistance level and Tuesday’s high $37,936.6 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $40,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $38,637.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $36,563 pivot would bring the first major support level at $35,190 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$35,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $34,490.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – January 20th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rallied by 8.70% on Tuesday. Following on from a 2.10% gain on Monday, Ethereum ended the day at $1,368.04.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning intraday low $1,252.01 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $1,207, Ethereum rallied to a mid-day intraday high and a new swing hi $1,440.00.

Ethereum broke through the day’s major resistance levels before a pullback to sub-$1,330 levels.

The pullback saw Ethereum fall back through the third major resistance level at $1,392.

Steering clear of the second major resistance level at $1,313, Ethereum revisited $1,400 levels before ending the day at sub-$1,370 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 1.34% to $1,386.34. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning low $1,356.16 before striking a high $1,397.24.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 200121 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $1,353 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $1,455.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Tuesday’s high $1,440.00.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Ethereum could test resistance at $1,600 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1,541.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $1,353 pivot would bring the first major support level at $1,267 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$1,200 levels. The second major support level sits at $1,165.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1,267

Pivot Level: $1,353

First Major Resistance Level: $1,455

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,119

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $921

62% FIB Retracement Level: $600

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 0.06% on Tuesday. Following on from a 6.39% gain on Monday, Litecoin ended the day at $151.90.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to an early morning intraday low $150.17 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $141.77, Litecoin surged to a late morning intraday high $166.21.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $158.50 and the second major resistance level at $165.11.

More significantly, Litecoin broke back through the 23.6% FIB of $148.

A bearish second half of the day, however, saw Litecoin fall back through the resistance levels to end the day at sub-$152 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 1.13% to $153.61. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to an early morning low $149.68 before striking a high $154.14.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 200121 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move through the $156.09 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $162.02.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break back through to $160 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Tuesday’s high $166.21 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at $180. The second major resistance level sits at $172.13.

Failure to move through the $156.09 pivot level would bring 23.6% FIB of $148 and the first major support level at $145.98 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $140.05.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $145.98

Pivot Level: $156.09

First Major Resistance Level: $162.02

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $148

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $125

62% FIB Retracement Level: $87

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 2.87% on Tuesday. Following on from a 2.77% gain on Monday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.29424.

Tracking the broader market, Ripple’s XRP fell to an early morning intraday low $0.28415 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2751, Ripple’s XRP jumped to a mid-morning intraday high $0.32960.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the day’s major resistance levels and the 23.6% FIB of $0.3172.

It was bearish through the remainder of the day, however.

Ripple’s XRP fell back through the third major resistance level at $0.3157 and the second major resistance level at $0.2988.

More significantly, Ripple’s XRP also fell back through the 23.6% FIB of $0.3172.

Finding support at the first major resistance level at $0.2921, however, Ripple’s XRP wrapped up the day at $0.294 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.12% to $0.29460. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning low $0.29044 before rising to a high $0.29494.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 200121 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to move through the $0.3027 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $0.3212 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through the 23.6% FIB of $0.3172.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance and Tuesday’s high $0.3296 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $0.35 levels. The second major resistance sits at $0.3481.

Failure to move through the $0.3027 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2757 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.27 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2572.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2757

Pivot Level: $0.3027

First Major Resistance Level: $0.3212

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6274

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5285

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3687

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

European Equities: COVID-19 and U.S Politics in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Wednesday, 20th January

German PPI (MoM) (Dec)

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) Final

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Dec) Final

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Dec) Final

Thursday, 21st January

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan)

ECB Press Conference

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Jan) Prelim

Friday, 22nd January

French Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Prelim

French Services PMI (Jan) Prelim

German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Prelim

German Services PMI (Jan) Prelim

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Prelim

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Jan) Prelim

Eurozone Services PMI (Jan) Prelim

The Majors

It was a bearish day for the European majors on Tuesday. The CAC40 fell by 0.33%, with the DAX30 and EuroStoxx600 seeing losses of 0.24% and 0.19% respectively.

News from Germany of a lockdown extension to mid-February sent the European majors into the red.

In addition to an extended lockdown, the possibility of reintroducing border controls was also raised over concerns of new COVID-19 strains.

Sentiment had been more bullish early on, with a pickup in economic sentiment in Germany and the Eurozone providing support.

The Stats

Economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone and finalized German inflation figures were in focus.

For January, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator rose from 55.0 to 61.8, with the current conditions indicator rising from -66.5 to -66.4.

Economists had forecasted an economic sentiment indicator of 60.0 and a current conditions indicator of -68.5.

For the Eurozone, the Economic Sentiment Indicator increased from 54.4 to 58.3.

On the inflation front, consumer prices increased by 0.5% in December in Germany, which was in line with prelim figures. Consumer prices had fallen by 0.8% in November.

According to Destatis,

  • Consumer prices were down by 0.3% on the same month a year earlier.
  • A temporary reduction in value added tax contributed to the fall in consumer prices.
  • Energy product prices slid by 4.8%. Prices had risen by 1.4% in 2019.
  • Prices of goods were down by 0.4% on 2019, while prices of services rose by 1.3%.

From the U.S

There were no material from the U.S.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a mixed day for the auto sector on Tuesday. Volkswagen rose by 0.81% to buck the trend on the day. BMW and Daimler fell by 0.95% and by 1.22% respectively, while Continental saw more modest loss of 0.59%.

It was a mixed day for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank slid by 3.90%, while Commerzbank rose by 0.14%.

From the CAC, it was a bearish day for the banks. BNP Paribas fell by 1.55%, with Credit Agricole and Soc Gen sliding by 2.24% and by 2.39% respectively.

It was a mixed day for the French auto sector. Peugeot ended the day flat, while Renault fell by 1.30%.

Air France-KLM fell by 0.72%, while Airbus SE ended the day with a modest 0.12% gain.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the red for the VIX on Tuesday. Reversing a 4.69% gain from Friday, the VIX fell by 4.52% to end the day at 23.24. On Monday, the U.S markets had been closed.

The NASDAQ rallied by 1.53%, with the Dow and the S&P500 rising by 0.0.38% and by 0.81% respectively.

Support for more fiscal stimulus delivered support to the U.S markets after the Monday holiday.

Former FED Chair Yellen, nominee for Treasury Secretary talked of support for a sizeable fiscal stimulus package.

Coupled with the incoming administration’s plans to drive vaccinations, hopes of a speedier economic recovery drove the main indexes to fresh record highs.

VIX 200121 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. Inflation figures from Germany and the Eurozone are due out later today.

We don’t expect the numbers to have any material impact on the European majors, however.

It’s Inauguration Day, so expect Biden’s immediate plans upon taking office to be the main area of focus.

Yellen’s support for further economic stimulus should deliver some comfort going into the open.

COVID-19 news will also continue to influence, however.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 46 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Puts the EUR and the Loonie in Focus as Inauguration Day Nears

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar was in action early this morning.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Business confidence picked up in the 4th quarter of 2020.

According to the NZIER Quarterly Report,

  • A net 16% of businesses expect a deterioration in general economic conditions over the coming months. This was lower than the 38% in the previous quarter and well below the 68% in March 2020.
  • The building sector delivered strong optimism, while other sectors saw some improvement.
  • Away from the construction sector, businesses were reportedly still cautious about general economic conditions ahead.
  • While demand has improved, firms are still finding it difficult to pass on rising costs by raising prices.
  • Despite resulting weak profitability, increased certainty about the outlook supported hiring and investment.
  • A net 15% of firms are planning to hire in the next quarter, with a net 10% planning to invest in plant and machinery.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.71122 to $0.71118 upon release of the figures that preceded retail sales figures.

In December, electronic card retail sales rose by 3.5% compared with December 2019. In November, sales had increased by 1.4%, year-on-year.

According to NZ Stats,

  • Spending on groceries, furniture, and electronics drove sales, while accommodation and fuel spending dragged.
  • Retail spending rose in 4 of the 6 industries in December 2020 compared with December 2019.
  • Consumables had the largest retail sector increase, rising by 7.5%, followed by spending on durables, which increased by 6.7%.
  • Spending on eating out increased by a relatively modest 1.8%. In spite of containment measures, domestic tourism delivered support.
  • By contrast, spending on hotels, motels, and other accommodation was down by 32% due to a lack of international tourists.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.71120 to $0.71051 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.25% to $0.7128.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.02% to ¥103.71 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.22% to $0.7698.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized December inflation figures from Germany and ZEW economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone are due out.

Expect Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment figure for January to be the key driver.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 vaccine news along with the latest COVID-19 figures will also influence.

On the political front, the Italian government faces a Senate vote later today that will decide Conte’s fate. On Monday, the Chamber of Deputies voted in favor of Conte’s government following the coalition breakdown.

A political crisis on top of the COVID-19 pandemic would pressure the EUR.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.09% to $1.2088.

For the Pound

It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will continue to leave COVID-19 news to provide direction.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.06% to $1.3595.

Across the Pond

It’s another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar after Monday’s market close.

The lack of stats will leave the Greenback in the hands of chatter from Capitol Hill and COVID-19 news.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.06% to 90.713.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively busy day on the economic data front. Manufacturing sales and wholesales figures for November are due out later today.

The numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the Loonie, however.

COVID-19 news updates from China and the U.S will likely remain the key drivers on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.17% to C$1.2735 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – January 19th, 2021

EOS

EOS rose by 1.81% on Monday. Reversing a 0.54% decline from Sunday, EOS ended the day at $2.8122.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to a mid-morning intraday low $2.6862 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2.6766, EOS rallied to a mid-day intraday high $2.8684.

EOS broke through the first major resistance level at $2.8367 before a fall back to $2.72 levels.

Finding late support, however, EOS moved back through to $2.81 levels to deliver the upside on the day.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 0.44% to $2.7997. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $2.8383 before falling to a low $2.7804.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOSUSD 190121 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid a fall back through the $2.7889 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2.8917.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break out from Monday’s high $2.8684.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $2.90 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $3.00 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2.9711.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the pivot level at $2.7889 would bring the first major support level at $2.7095 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer of the second major support level at $2.6067.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2.7095

First Major resistance Level: $2.8917

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen rose by 0.53% on Monday. Following on from a 4.47% rally on Sunday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the day at $0.3050.

A bullish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning intraday high $0.30883 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.3196, Stellar’s Lumen fell to an early morning intraday low $0.29310.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2748, Stellar’s Lumen revisited $0.3050 levels before falling back into the red.

A range-bound second half of the day resistance at $0.30 pinned Stellar’s Lumen until a late move back through to $0.3050 levels.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down by 0.87% to $0.3023. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning high $0.3060 before falling to a low $0.3019.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 190121 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to avoid a fall back through the $0.3023 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.3115 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break back through to $0.31 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Monday’s high $0.3088 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test resistance at $0.33 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.3180.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $0.3023 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2958 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.028 levels. The second major support level at $0.2866 and the 38.2% FIB of $0.2823 would likely limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2958

First Major Resistance Level: $0.3115

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3187

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2823

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1850

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX rallied by 3.42% on Monday. Following on from a 0.66% gain on Sunday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.03149.

A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX slide to an early morning intraday low $0.02928 before making a move.

Steering clear of the 23.6% FIB of $0.0291 and the first major support level at $0.02907, Tron’s TRX rallied to a mid-day intraday high $0.03292.

Tron’s TRX broke through the first major resistance level at $0.03151 and the second major resistance level at $0.03258.

An early afternoon pullback, however, saw Tron’s TRX slide back through the resistance levels to $0.03011 levels.

Steering clear of sub-$0.030 levels, Tron’s TRX revisited $0.032 levels before easing back.

Tron’s TRX broke back through the first major resistance level at $0.03151 before ending the day at sub-$0.0315 levels.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 0.18% to $0.03143. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning high $0.03211 before falling to a low $0.03102.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRXUSD 190121 Daily Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to avoid a back fall through the $0.03120 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.03311 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break out from Monday’s high $0.03282.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally Tron’s TRX could resistance at $0.35 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.03474.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $0.03120 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.02957 and the 23.6% FIB of $0.0291 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of sub-$0.029 levels. The second major support level at sits at $0.02766.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.02957

First Major Resistance Level: $0.03311

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.03211

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0428

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0648

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – January 19th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose 2.10% on Monday. Following on from a 0.43% gain on Sunday, Ethereum ended the day at $1,258.48.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $1,247.22 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1,279, Ethereum slid to an early morning intraday low $1,181.90.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $1,176, Ethereum rallied to a late intraday high $1,261.00.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1,279, Ethereum eased back on to end the day at sub-$1,260 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 0.30% to $1,262.22. A bullish start to the day saw Ethereum rise from an early morning low $1,258.54 to a high $1,274.30.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 190121 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $1,234 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $1,286.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Monday’s high $1,261.00.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Ethereum could test resistance at $1,350 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1,313.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $1,234 pivot would bring the first major support level at $1,207 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$1,100 levels. The second major support level at $1,155 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1,207

Pivot Level: $1,234

First Major Resistance Level: $1,286

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,051

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $866

62% FIB Retracement Level: $566

Litecoin

Litecoin rallied by 6.39% on Monday. Reversing a 0.54% decline from Sunday, Litecoin ended the day at $151.88.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $144.52 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $147.77, Litecoin slid to an early morning intraday low $138.27.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $138.27, Litecoin surged to an early afternoon intraday high $155.00.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $147.77 and the second major resistance level at $152.74.

More significantly, Litecoin also broke through the 23.6% FIB of $148.

Through the late afternoon, Litecoin fell back to through the resistance levels and the 23.6% FIB to revisit $145 levels. In spite of the pullback, Litecoin avoided a fall back into the red.

Finding late support, Litecoin broke back through the first and second major resistance level and the 23.6% FIB to revisit $153 levels.

A late pullback, however, saw Litecoin fall back through the second major resistance level to end the day at sub-$152 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 0.05% to $151.95. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $153.17 before falling to a low $151.61.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 190121 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $148.38 pivot level and the 23.6% FIB of $148 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $158.50.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Monday’s high $155.00.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $160 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at $170. The second major resistance level sits at $165.11.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $148.38 pivot level and the 23.6% FIB would bring the first major support level at $141.77 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $131.65.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $141.77

Pivot Level: $148.38

First Major Resistance Level: $158.50

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $148

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $125

62% FIB Retracement Level: $87

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 2.77% on Monday. Reversing a 0.68% decline from Sunday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.28536.

Tracking the broader market, Ripple’s XRP rose to an early morning high $0.27864 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.2857, Ripple’s XRP slid to an early morning intraday low $0.27158.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2687, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a mid-day intraday high $0.28852.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the first major resistance level at $0.2857 before falling back to sub-$0.28 levels.

Finding late support, however, Ripple’s XRP moved back through to $0.285 levels to deliver the upside on the day.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.13% to $0.28500. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.28736 before falling to a low $0.28500.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 190121 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall through the $0.2818 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $0.2921 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break through to $0.29 levels.

Barring another extended crypto rally, the first major resistance would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $0.30 levels. The second major resistance sits at $0.2988.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.2818 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2751 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.27 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2649.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2751

Pivot Level: $0.2818

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2921

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6274

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5285

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3687

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

European Equities: Economic Sentiment Figures and COVID-19 in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Tuesday, 19th January

German CPI (MoM) (Dec) Final

German ZEW Current Conditions (Jan)

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)

Wednesday, 20th January

German PPI (MoM) (Dec)

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) Final

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Dec) Final

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Dec) Final

Thursday, 21st January

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan)

ECB Press Conference

Friday, 22nd January

French Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Prelim

French Services PMI (Jan) Prelim

German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Prelim

German Services PMI (Jan) Prelim

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Prelim

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Jan) Prelim

Eurozone Services PMI (Jan) Prelim

The Majors

It was a relatively bullish start to the week for the European majors on Monday. The DAX30 rose by 0.44%, with the EuroStoxx600 and CAC40 seeing gains of 0.20% and 0.10% respectively.

Economic data from China had failed to support the majors going into the open in spite of solid GDP numbers for Q4.

Concerns over the Eurozone’s economic outlook had overshadowed the numbers. A continued rise in new COVID-10 cases and vaccination supply issues tested support.

Ultimately, however, luxury, bank, and auto stocks were amongst the front runners, delivering the upside on the day.

While concerns over the economic outlook were evident, China’s continued economic recovery provided some optimism on the day.

The Stats

It was a quiet day on the economic calendar. Economic data was limited to finalized December inflation figures for Italy.

In December, consumer prices rose by 0.2%, coming up short of a prelim 0.3% rise while reversing a 0.1% decline from November.

From the U.S

There were no material from the U.S to provide directions, with the U.S markets closed on Monday.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Monday. Continental and Daimler rose by 1.02% and by 0.95% respectively.  BMW and Volkswagen saw more modest gains of 0.32% and 0.08% respectively.

It was also a bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rose by 0.60%, with Commerzbank rallying by 1.98%.

From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. Credit Agricole ended the day up by 1.03%, with BNP Paribas and Soc Gen rising by 0.83% and by 0.38% respectively.

It was a mixed day for the French auto sector, however. Peugeot ended the day flat, while Renault rose by 1.64%.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE fell by 1.06% and by 1.47% respectively.

Carrefour led the day down, however, sliding by 6.92% following the French government’s intervention in the Couche-Tard takeover bid.

On the VIX Index

The U.S markets were closed on Monday.

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Germany and the Eurozone’s ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for January are in focus in the early part of the day.

Expect Germany’s sentiment figures to have the greatest influence on the European majors.

Finalized December inflation figures for Germany are also due out but will likely have a muted impact on the majors.

From the U.S, there are no material stats to provide direction late in the European session.

The lack of stats from the U.S will leave COVID-19 news updates as a key driver later in the day.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 47 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

COVID-19 Vaccine Update – Brazil and India Look to Ramp up Vaccinations

Vaccinations

According to the Bloomberg Vaccination Tracker, more than 42,2m vaccines have been administered as at 17th January.

This figure is likely to be higher, with numbers from China, a number of EU member states, and other parts of the world yet to be updated.

By doses administered, the U.S leads the way, having administered 14.31m doses, as at 17th January.

As at 13th January, China had administered 10 million doses as the government looks to prevent another wave of the pandemic.

While the EU sits behind China, with 5.27m doses administered, the UK ranks 4th, with 4.31m doses administered.

Vaccination Rates

When looking at vaccination rates, however, it is a different story.

China had a vaccination rate of just 0.71 per 100 people, with the EU having a vaccination rate of 1.19 per 100.

It was slightly better for the U.S after the weekend, with the vaccination rate rising to 4.36 per 100.

This number remains particularly low, however, when considering the continued rise in new cases and related deaths. For incoming president Joe Biden, the bigger concern, however, will be the fact that only 46% of doses distributed have been administered.

Biden has pledged the vaccination of 100 million in 100 days. A greater vaccination drive is going to be need to, not only meet the pledge, but to bring the pandemic under control.

New strains of the virus have contributed to the pickup in infection rates.

The good news is, however, that the vaccination rate is well above 2.44 doses per 100 as at 12th January.

Global Numbers

Leading the charge geographically, by vaccination rate, continues to be Israel.

As at 17th January, Israel had reported a vaccination rate of 25.91 per 100 people.

The U.A.E was narrowing the gap, with the vaccination rate climbing from 15.50 to 17.52 per 100 as at 17th January.

From the UK, the government’s vaccination drive was reflected in the latest figures. As at 17th January, the vaccination rate stood at 6.45 doses per 100 people. This was up from 5.51 doses per 100 as at 15th January.

By contrast, the EU continued to fall well behind the U.S and the UK.

As at 17th January, the EU had a vaccination rate of 1.19 per 100.

Amongst the 4 worst affected member states, Italy continued to lead the way with a vaccination rate of 1.90 doses per 100 as at 17th January. This was up from 1.66 as at 15th January.

17th January figures for Spain, Germany, and France were not yet available.

France continued to disappoint, however, with a vaccination rate of just 0.65 per 100 as at 16th January.

The latest figures from Germany and Spain were somewhat better.

As at 16th January, Germany had a vaccination rate of 1.26 per 100, with Spain a vaccination rate of 1.65 as at 15th January.

When considering the ongoing lockdown measures and continued rise in new cases, however, more is going to be needed.

For a full breakdown of vaccination rates by country, please visit Bloomberg Vaccination Tracker page here.

The Latest COVID-19 Numbers

At the time of writing, there were a total of 95,480,678 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 2,039,607 related deaths.

By geography, the U.S had reported 24,482,050 cases and 407,202 COVID-19 related deaths.

India reporting 10,572,672 cases, with Brazil reporting 8,488,099 cases.

Sitting behind Russia (3,568,209) remained the UK (3,395,959).

France (2,910,989), Italy (2,381,277), Spain (2,252,164), and Germany (2,050,099) reported a combined 9,594,529 cases.

Looking Ahead

This morning, we saw 4th quarter GDP numbers from China fail to support demand for riskier assets. In spite of upbeat numbers, a recent pickup in new COVID-19 cases in China muted the effect of the numbers.

This was in spite of the ongoing vaccination drive across the country.

With vaccination rates at the lower end for China and other major economies, the continued rise in new COVID-19 cases is likely to slow any economic recovery.

Fiscal and monetary policy support may be in place but without an easing of lockdown measures, consumption will likely continue to wane.

Last week, December retail sales figures from the U.S fell further. This was in spite of the government holding off reintroducing a nationwide lockdown.

As governments look to ramp up vaccination rates, vaccine supply will soon become a focal point.

For the EU, in particular, approval of the AstraZeneca vaccine is likely to be key. At the time of writing, however, the EMA is not due to review the vaccine until 29th January.

This means that the EU would likely continue to see a reduced supply of COVID-19 vaccines until mid to late February.

Extended lockdown measures across France, Germany, and Italy in particular would also question the ECB’s growth forecast for 2021…

India and Brazil

For Brazil, which has seen a spike in new COVID-19 cases as a result of new strains, Anvisa approved both the AstraZeneca and Sinovac vaccines.

Two medical centers in the country are reportedly set to manufacture the vaccines to meet national demand.

India, which ranks ahead of Brazil in terms of total COVID-19 cases, is also on a vaccination drive. The government reportedly delivered millions of doses of approved vaccines across the country in just a matter of days.

Alongside Brazil, India is using the AstraZeneca vaccine. In addition, India is also administering its very own Covaxin vaccine.

As at 17th January, India had a vaccination rate of just 0.02 per 100. At the time of writing, there were no figures available from Brazil.

Bitcoin and Chainlink – Weekly Technical Analysis – January 18th, 2021

Bitcoin

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 6.02% in the week ending 17th January. Partially reversing a 15.8% rally from the previous week, Bitcoin ended the week at $35,900.0.

A bearish start to the week saw Bitcoin tumble to a Monday intraweek low $30,635.0 before finding support.

Bitcoin fell through the 23.6% FIB of $33,008 to come within range of the first major support level at $30,504.

After another bearish day on Tuesday, Bitcoin rallied to a Wednesday intraweek high $40,001.0 before hitting reverse.

While falling well short of the first major resistance level at $43,933, Bitcoin broke back through the 23.6% FIB of $33,008.

A bearish end to the week, however, saw Bitcoin revisit sub-$34,000 levels before wrapping up the week at $35,900 levels.

5 days in the red that included an 7.31% tumble on Monday and a 6.12% slide on Friday delivered the downside.

For the week ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through $35,512 pivot to support a run the first major resistance level at $40,389.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $40,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, resistance at last week’s high $40,001 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Bitcoin could test resistance at $45,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $44,878.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $35,512 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $33,008 and the first major support level at $31,023 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$30,000 support levels and the 38.2% FIB of $27,465. The second major support level sits at $26,146.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.28% to $35,999.0. A mixed start to the week saw Bitcoin fall to an early Monday morning low $35,630.0 before rising to a high $36,244.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

BTCUSD 180121 Daily Chart

Chainlink

Chainlink surged by 43.53% in the week ending 17th January. Following on from an 18.11% gain from the week prior, Chainlink ended the week at $23.30.

It was a particularly bearish start to the week. Chainlink slid to a Monday intraweek low $12.50 before ending the day at $16 levels.

The sell-off saw Chainlink briefly fall through the 38.2% FIB of $12.9 and the first major support level at $12.87.

After a bearish Tuesday, Chainlink surged to a Sunday intraweek high and a new swing hi $23.7392.

The breakout saw Chainlink break through the week’s major resistance levels to end the week at $23 levels.

4-days in the green included a 13.86% rally on Wednesday, a 12.48% gain on Thursday, a 15.7% jump on Friday, and a 15.82% breakout on Sunday.

For the week ahead

Chainlink would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $19.85 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $27.19.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Chainlink to break out from last week’s all-time high $23.7392.

Barring another extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Chainlink could test resistance at $30 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $31.09.

Failure to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $19.85 would bring 23.6% FIB of $18.5 into play before any recovery.

Barring a crypto meltdown, however, Chainlink should steer well clear of last week’s low $12.50. The first major support level at $15.95 and the 38.2% FIB of $15.2 should limit any downside.

At the time of writing, Chainlink was flat at $23.30. A mixed start to the week saw Chainlink fall to an early Monday morning low $22.9074 before rising to a high $23.6632.

Chainlink left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

LINKUSD 180121 Daily Chart

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – January 18th, 2021

EOS

EOS fell by 0.54% on Sunday. Partially reversing a 0.76% gain from Saturday, EOS ended the week down by 9.65% to $2.7653.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning intraday high $2.8194 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2.8858, EOS slid to a late morning intraday low $2.6593.

EOS fell through first major support level at $2.6812 before a break back through to $2.81 levels.

A bearish end to the day, however, saw EOS fall back through to sub-$2.78 levels to end the day in the red.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 0.36% to $2.7610. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $2.8297 before falling to a low $2.7335.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOSUSD 180121 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid a fall back through the $2.7480 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2.8367.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break out from Sunday’s high $2.8194.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $2.85 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $3.00 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2.9081.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the pivot level at $2.7480 would bring the first major support level at $2.6766 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer of sub-$2.60 levels, however. The second major support level sits at $2.5879.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2.6766

First Major resistance Level: $2.8367

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen rallied by 4.47% on Sunday. Following on from a 2.39% gain on Saturday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the week up by 6.64% to $0.3037.

A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to an early morning intraday low $0.2861 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2748, Stellar’s Lumen rallied to an early morning intraday high $0.3190.

Stellar’s Lumen broke through the first major resistance level at $0.3089 before a slide back to sub-$0.29 levels.

Finding late support, however, Stellar’s Lumen moved back through to $0.30 levels to end the day in the green.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was up by 0.96% to $0.3066. A bullish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise from an early morning low $0.3034 to a high $0.3088.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 180121 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to avoid a fall through the $0.3029 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.3198 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break back through to $0.31 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $0.3190 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test resistance at $0.33 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.3358.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.0.3029 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2869 and 38.2% FIB of $0.2823 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.028 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2701.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2869

First Major Resistance Level: $0.3198

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3187

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2823

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1850

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX rose by 0.66% on Sunday. Following on from a 1.51% gain on Saturday, Tron’s TRX ended the week down by 7.23% to $0.03045.

A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning intraday high $0.03120 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.3163, Tron’s TRX slid to a late morning intraday low $0.02876.

The reversal saw Tron’s TRX fall through the 23.6% FIB of $0.0291 and the first major support level at $0.02892.

Finding support through the afternoon, Tron’s TRX revisited $0.03090 levels before easing back.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was up by 0.50% to $0.03060. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning low $0.02988 before rising to a high $0.03068.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRXUSD 180121 Daily Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to avoid a fall back through the $0.03014 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.03151 back into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break back through to $0.031 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $0.03120 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally Tron’s TRX could resistance at $0.33 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.03258.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $0.02964 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $0.0291 and the first major support level at $0.02907 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of sub-$0.028 levels. The second major support level at sits at $0.02770.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.02907

First Major Resistance Level: $0.03151

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.03211

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0428

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0648

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

Economic Data from China to Set the Tone for the Day

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats to provide the markets with direction in the early hours. Later this morning, however, economic data from China will set the tone.

Key stats due out of China later this morning include 4th quarter GDP figures along with industrial production and retail sales numbers.

Unemployment and fixed asset investment figures for December are also due out but will likely have a muted impact on risk sentiment.

For the Majors

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.13% to $0.7693, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.11% to $0.7125.

The Japanese Yen was up by 0.06% to ¥103.79 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized December inflation figures from Italy are due out.

The numbers are unlikely to influence, however.

Expect COVID-19 news and updates from Rome to influence. Political uncertainty, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, will test EUR support. Conte will now need to avoid going back to the polls…

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.06% to $1.2075.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave COVID-19 news to provide direction. A pickup in vaccination rates should provide support, though the markets will need to see new cases begin to fall.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.07% to $1.3580.

Across the Pond

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with the U.S markets closed today.

The lack of stats will leave the Greenback in the hands of market risk sentiment and COVID-19 news.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.03% to 90.800.

For the Loonie

It’s another quiet day on the economic data front. Housing start figures for December are due out later today.

The numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the Loonie ahead of Wednesday’s monetary policy decision.

Economic data from China and COVID-19 news updates will likely be the key drivers on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.26% to C$1.2765 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

European Equities: China 4th Quarter GDP Numbers and COVID-19 News in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Monday, 18th January

Italian CPI (MoM) (Dec) Final

Tuesday, 19th January

German CPI (MoM) (Dec) Final

German ZEW Current Conditions (Jan)

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)

Wednesday, 20th January

German PPI (MoM) (Dec)

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) Final

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Dec) Final

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Dec) Final

Thursday, 21st January

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan)

ECB Press Conference

Friday, 22nd January

French Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Prelim

French Services PMI (Jan) Prelim

German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Prelim

German Services PMI (Jan) Prelim

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Prelim

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Jan) Prelim

Eurozone Services PMI (Jan) Prelim

The Majors

It was a bearish end to the week for the European majors on Friday, with the DAX30 sliding by 1.44% to lead the way down. The CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 weren’t far behind, with losses of 1.22% and 1.01% respectively.

A continued spike in new COVID-19 cases and low vaccination rates across the Eurozone weighed on the European majors.

In the week, there was also a jump in new COVID-19 cases in China that added to the market angst late in the week.

For the EU, fewer doses from Pfizer Inc. and EMA’s pending review of the AstraZeneca vaccine means that vaccination rates will likely remain low in the month.

This is then expected to lead to a delay in the easing of lockdown measures and to any start of any sustainable economic recovery.

The Stats

It was a quiet day on the economic calendar. Finalized December inflation figures for France and Spain had a muted impact on the majors.

A narrowing of the Eurozone’s trade surplus from €30.0bn to €25.8bn in November reflected the effects of the pandemic on global trade terms.

According to Eurostat,

  • Compared with November 2019, exports of goods fell by 1.0% to €196.7bn.
  • Imports from the rest of the world slid by 4.2% compared with November 2019.
  • This led to a widening of the trade surplus from a November 2019 €20.2bn to a November 2020 surplus of €25.8bn.
  • Intra-euro areas trade fell by 1.3% to €165.4bn compared with November 2019.

From the U.S

It was a busy day on the economic calendar. Retail sales and consumer sentiment figures were in focus. Manufacturing, industrial production, and inventory numbers were also in focus but had a muted impact on the markets.

In December, retail sales fell by 0.7%, following a 1.4% slide in November. Economists had forecast a more modest 0.2% decline. Core retail sales fell by a heavier 1.4%, following a 1.3% decline in November. Economists had forecast a 0.1% fall.

Consumer sentiment waned in January, according to prelim figures. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 80.7 to 79.2.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a mixed day for the auto sector on Friday. Volkswagen rose by 0.42% to buck the trend on the day. Continental and Daimler slid by 3.14% and by 3.08% respectively, while BMW saw more modest loss of 0.86%.

It was also a bearish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank slid by 3.35%, with Commerzbank falling by 1.32%.

From the CAC, it was a bearish day for the banks. BNP Paribas fell by 1.54%, with Credit Agricole and Soc Gen sliding by 2.35% and by 2.41% respectively.

It was also a bearish day for the French auto sector. Peugeot and Renault slid by 4.21% and by 3.84% respectively.

Air France-KLM bucked the general trend, rising by 0.32%, while Airbus SE ended the day with a modest 0.75% loss.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive day in the green for the VIX  on Friday, marking just the 4th daily gain in 12 sessions. Following a 4.68% gain from Thursday, the VIX rose by 4.69% to end the day at 24.34.

The NASDAQ and the S&P500 fell by 0.87% and by 0.72% respectively, with the Dow declining by 0.57%.

Another set of disappointing economic data and jump in COVID-19 related deaths and low vaccination rates weighed.

The markets also responded to the final details of the next U.S stimulus package, the anticipation of which had driven the majors to fresh record highs.

VIX 180121 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized December inflation figures for Italy are due out early in the session.

The numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the majors, however.

With the U.S markets closed, the lack of distraction will likely leave the EUR in the hands of COVID-19 news updates.

Ahead of the European session, 4th quarter GDP figures and December industrial production and retail sales figures from China will set the tone.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down by 25 points, with the DAX down by 20 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.