EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – 29/02/20

EOS

EOS fell by 2.56% on Friday. Reversing a 2.31% gain from Thursday, EOS ended the day at $3.4287.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning intraday high $3.6212 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $3.7749, EOS slid to a mid-day intraday low $3.3535.

EOS fell through the first major support level at $3.4250 before recovering. Finding support late on, EOS struck a high $3.6100 before falling back to $3.52 levels.

At the time of writing, EOS was up by 0.44% to $3.5444. A bullish start to the day saw EOS rise from an early morning low $3.5282 to a high $3.5908.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOS/USD 29/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to move back through to $3.60 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $3.6888.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break out from Friday’s high $3.6812.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely leave EOS short of $3.70 levels once more.

Failure to move back through to $3.60 levels could see EOS fall back into the red.

A fall back through the morning low to sub-$3.52 levels would bring the first major support level at $3.3611 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, EOS should continue to steer clear of sub-$3.30 levels.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $3.3611

Major Resistance Level: $3.6888

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.62

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.76

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.82

Ethereum

Ethereum slipped by 0.1% on Friday. Following a 1.72% gain from Thursday, Ethereum ended the day at $227.36.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high $234.90 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $237.75, Ethereum slid to a mid-day intraday low $213.63.

Ethereum fell through the first major support level at $218.75 before recovering to $230 levels. A final hour pullback to sub-$227.60 levels left Ethereum in the red for the day, however.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 1.05% to $229.75. A bullish start to the day saw Ethereum rise from an early morning low $227.04 to a high $232.20.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETH/USD 29/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to break back through the morning high $232.20 to bring the first major resistance level at $236.97 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $230 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level at $236.97 should leave Ethereum short of $240 levels.

Failure to move back through the morning high could see Ethereum give up the early gains.

A fall through back through the morning low to sub-$225.30 levels would bring the first major support level at $215.70 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$210 support levels.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $215.70

Major Resistance Level: $236.97

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP fell by 0.48% on Friday. Partially reversing a 3.81% gain from Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.23764.

Tracking the broader market, Ripple’s XRP rose to an early morning intraday high $0.24450 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.2490, Ripple’s XRP slid to a mid-day intraday low $0.2290.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2261, Ripple’s XRP recovered to $0.24 levels before falling back into the red.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.28% to $0.23830. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.24144 before falling to a low $0.23660.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRP/USD 29/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to break back through to $0.24 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.2451.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from the morning high $0.24144.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance levels would likely pin Ripple’s XRP back from $0.25 levels.

Failure to move back through to $0.24 levels could see Ripple’s XRP fall back into the red.

A fall back through to sub-$0.2370 levels would bring the first major support level at $0.2296 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.22 levels on the day.

The second major support level at $0.2215 should limit any downside on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $0.2296

Major Resistance Level: $0.2451

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

The Weekly Wrap – The EUR and Yen Come Out on Top as the Equity Markets Hit Corrective Territory

The Stats

It was a relatively busy week on the economic calendar, in the week ending 28th February.

A total of 56 stats were monitored, following the 72 stats in the week prior.

Of the 56 stats,  26 came in ahead forecasts, with 21 economic indicators coming up short of forecast. 9 stats were in line with forecasts in the week.

Looking at the numbers, 25 of the stats reflected an upward trend from previous figures. Of the remaining 31, 25 stats reflected a deterioration from previous.

For the Greenback, it was a particularly bearish week, as the markets reversed bets that the U.S economy would be unscathed from the spread of the coronavirus.

Not only did economic data continue to disappoint, but the markets also raised the probability of multiple rate cuts by the FED.

When gold takes a tumble as investors look for liquidity to meet margin calls, it’s never a good thing…

The Dollar Spot Index fell by 1.21% to end the week at 98.132.

Out of the U.S

It was a quiet first half of the week, with economic data limited to February consumer confidence figures.

A slight uptick in consumer confidence had a muted impact on the dollar on Tuesday.

Market risk aversion and updates from the U.S on the coronavirus pinned the Dollar back early in the week.

In the 2nd half of the week, durable goods orders on Thursday also failed to impress ahead of a busy Friday.

While core durable goods orders rose by 0.90% in January, durable goods orders fell by 0.2%, sending mixed signals to the market.

At the end of the week, the annual rate of inflation continued to fall short of the FED’s 2% objective.

Personal spending rose by just 0.2% in January, which was softer than a 0.4% rise in December.

Chicago PMI numbers were somewhat better than anticipated, however, with the PMI rising from 42.9 to 49.0.

The February numbers suggested that next week’s ISM numbers may not be as dire as the Markit PMI numbers.

It wasn’t enough to support the U.S equity markets or the Dollar, however.

Housing sector numbers and 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter had a muted impact in the week.

In the equity markets, the Dow slumped by 12.36%, with the S&P500 and NASDAQ tumbling by 11.49% and by 10.54% respectively.

Out of the UK

It was a particularly quiet week on the economic calendar.

There were no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats left the Pound in the hands of Brexit chatter as the EU and Britain prepare to return to the negotiating table.

A visit to $1.30 levels early in the week was brief, with the British Prime Minister spooking the markets once more.

Johnson spoke on Thursday, stating that Britain would walk away from negotiations should there be a lack of progress by the end of June.

With so much to iron out and the 2-sides worlds apart, hopes of having a framework in place by June are slim…

In the week, the Pound fell by 1.09% to $1.2823, with the FTSE100 ending the week down by 11.12%.

Out of the Eurozone

It was a relatively quiet start to the week economic data front.

Germany was in focus, with February IFO Business Climate Index figures and 2nd estimate GDP numbers in focus.

On the positive side for the EUR was a slight pickup in the Business Climate Index. This came off the back of a rise in optimism, as the current assessment index eased back.

Ultimately, however, March numbers will give a better indication of whether the coronavirus has affected business sentiment.

With GDP numbers in line with 1st estimates, the focus then shifted to a busy Friday.

Key stats included French consumer spending and German unemployment numbers.

While Germany’s unemployment rate held steady, French consumer spending took a hit in January. The slide came ahead of the coronavirus news, which suggests that a further pullback in spending could be on the cards.

The stats failed to influence, however, as the markets punished the Dollar through much of the week.

Prelim inflation figures out of Spain and France, French GDP numbers and finalized consumer confidence figures out of the Eurozone also failed to move the dial…

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde spoke late in the week. She was of the view that the virus had yet to impact inflation to the point where the ECB needs to step in…

That is in stark contrast to the outlook towards FED monetary policy…

For the week, the EUR rose by 1.65% to $1.1026.

For the European major indexes, it was a particularly bearish week. The DAX30 tumbled by 12.44%, with the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 ending the week down by 11.94% and 12.25% respectively.

Elsewhere

It was a particularly bearish week for the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar.

In the week ending 28th February, the Aussie Dollar slid by 1.69% to $0.6515, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 1.62% to $0.6246.

For the Aussie Dollar

It was a relatively quiet week for the Aussie Dollar on the economic data front.

Key stats included 4th quarter construction work done and private new CAPEX figures on Wednesday and Thursday.

Both sets of figures disappointed, though a 2.8% slide in new CAPEX in the 4th quarter was more alarming.

RBA monetary policy has not only been in favor of consumer spending but also business investment. The slide suggests a lack of confidence and raised the prospects of a near-term rate cut.

On Friday, the private sector credit figure also failed to impress, with total credit rising by just 0.3% month-on-month.

With the numbers skewed to the negative, risk aversion added to the downside in the week.

Negative sentiment towards the economic outlook led to a slide in commodities and commodity currencies.

For the markets, uncertainly over when the spread of the coronavirus will abate also influenced.

For the Kiwi Dollar

It was a relatively quiet start to the week on the economic colander.

4th quarter retail sales figures failed to impress at the start of the week, with sales rising by 0.7%. In the 3rd quarter, retail sales had risen by 1.7%.

Later in the week, trade data and business confidence figures delivered mixed results that added pressure on the Kiwi.

While trade exports to China rose further, January’s trade was not impacted by China’s shut down.

Business confidence figures, however, suggested some doom and gloom ahead.

With exports to China accounting for 27% of total New Zealand exports in January, it could be quite dire reading next month…

For the Loonie

It was a busy week on the economic calendar. Key stats included wholesale sales figures on Monday and RMPI and GDP numbers on Friday.

A rise in wholesale sales in December failed to provide support at the start of the week, as crude oil prices got hammered.

Market fears of a marked slowdown in the global economy, stemming from the spread of the coronavirus, weighed.

At the end of the week, with the Loonie already under the cosh, GDP numbers also failed to support.

While the economy fared better in December, there was a marked slowdown in the 4th quarter. When considering the economic disruption anticipated in the 1st quarter and beyond, it doesn’t look good.

RMPI numbers also failed to impress, with the RMPI falling by 2.2% in January, reversing most of a 2.7% rise in December.

With the BoC in action next week, the chances of a rate cut certainly jumped in the week…

The Loonie slid by 1.38% to end the week at C$1.3407 against the Greenback.

For the Japanese Yen

It was a relatively quiet week on the data front.

The markets had to wait until Friday for key stats that had little to no influence on the Japanese Yen.

For the Government, the impact of the coronavirus on consumer spending is a blow following last year’s sales tax hike. That suggests that government support is likely to come.

In the meantime, however, retail sales fell by 0.4% in January, following a 2.6% slide in December.

The annual rate of core inflation also eased, with the Ku-area seeing core inflation easing from 0.7% to 0.5% in February.

With the jobs/applications ratio falling from 1.57 to 1.49, the only bright data set was industrial production.

A 0.8% rise in production in January was of little consolation, however, when considering the anticipated drop in demand.

Risk aversion ultimately drove demand for the Yen in the week, with concerns over the U.S economy restoring the Yen’s position as the “go-to” currency.

The Japanese Yen surged by 3.33% to end the week at ¥107.89 against the U.S Dollar. Risk aversion in the week weighed heavily on the Nikkei, which slumped by 9.59%, leaving the index down by 8.89% for February.

Out of China

There were no material stats to provide direction ahead of private sector PMIs on the weekend.

A lack of stats left updates on the coronavirus to provide direction that was ultimately positive for the Yuan.

In contrast, the sell-off across the global stock markets weighed on the CSI300 and Hang Seng, though they did fare better than the pack.

The CSI300 fell by 5.05%, with the Hang Seng falling by 4.32% in the week.

In the week ending 28th February, the Yuan rose by 0.50% to CNY6.9920 against the Greenback.

European Equities: A Week in Review – 29/02/20

The Majors

It was a week to forget for the European majors and beyond.

Market reaction to the continued spread of the coronavirus drove demand for safe havens in the week.

For the DAX30, it was 7 consecutive day in the red, sinking the German Boerse into corrective territory in the week. It was even more dramatic for the EuroStoxx600, which fell from an all-time-high 433.9 on 19th February into corrective territory, with a 10% loss coming in just 6 trading sessions.

So, looking at the numbers, the DAX30 ended the week down by 12.44% to lead the way. The CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 weren’t far behind with losses of 11.94% and 12.25% respectively. Heavy losses on Friday just added salt into the wounds, with the majors not only in corrective territory but also in the deep red for February.

The CAC40 fell by 8.55% in February, with the DAX30 and EuroStoxx600 sliding by 8.41% and by 8.54% respectively.

We aren’t in bear territory yet, but we could be should economic data begin to spook investors alongside the coronavirus.

The Stats

It was a relatively busy week on the Eurozone economic calendar.

Through the 1st half of the week, key stats included German business sentiment figures and 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter.

Business sentiment improved in February, with the IFO Business Climate Index rising from 96.0 to 96.1. The upside came off the back of a pickup in business optimism that was partially offset by negative sentiment towards the current state of the economy.

Interestingly, the figures failed to reflect any negative bias stemming from the spread of the coronavirus. The timing of the survey likely failed to capture the spread across Europe and the U.S.

Germany’s GDP numbers were in line with 1st estimates, affirming the stall in the economy in the 4th quarter. Not great with what’s on the horizon…

Later in the week, French consumer spending and 2nd estimate GDP numbers and German unemployment figures were in focus on Friday.

A slide in consumer spending in January will be yet one more concern for the ECB. It wasn’t all bad, however, with Germany’s labor market resilient at the turn of the year.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde was of the view that the spread of the virus had yet to have enough of an impact on inflation to warrant monetary policy support. Next week’s stats could change that narrative…

The Market Movers

From the DAX, it was a bearish week for the auto sector. Daimler and Volkswagen led the way down, with weekly losses of 11.62% and 10.67% respectively. BMW and Continental weren’t far behind, with losses of 9.37% and 9.42% respectively.

It was a particularly bearish week for the banking sector, with Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank tumbling by 16.88% and 20.09% respectively.

From the CAC, things were not much better for the banks. BNP Paribas slumped by 17.74%, while Credit Agricole and Soc Gen seeing losses of 17.73% and by 17.64% respectively.

The French auto sector took a more modest hit, with Renault and Peugeot sliding by 16.35% and 8.57% respectively.

Travel and tourism stocks were worse hit, however. Germany’s Lufthansa tumbled by 21.17%, with Air France-KLM ending the week down by 23.90%.

On the VIX Index

The VIX rose by 2.43% on Friday. Following on from a 42.09% surge on Thursday, the VIX ended the week up by a whopping 134.84%.

Risk aversion plagued the global financial markets driving the VIX to its highest level since hitting 50.3 back in February 2018. On Friday, the VIX had hit a week high 49.5 before easing back.

Updates of the spread of the coronavirus led the U.S equity markets into corrective territory and the largest weekly slide since the Global Financial Crisis.

For the week, the S&P500 slid by 11.49%.

VIX 29/02/20 Daily Chart

The Week Ahead

It’s another busy week ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. Through the first half of the week, private sector PMI numbers are due out of Italy and Spain. Finalized numbers are also due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

Expect Italy’s manufacturing PMI on Monday and the Eurozone’s composite on Wednesday to have the greatest influence. There could be revisions to German and French numbers to look out for, however.

On Wednesday, German and Eurozone retail sales figures will also be in focus ahead of German factory orders on Friday.

The markets will be looking for some indication of what impact the coronavirus has had on the economy. February and March numbers will be a better guide.

From elsewhere,

Private sector PMI numbers out of China and the U.S in the 1st half of the week will also influence. Expect manufacturing PMI numbers out of China from the weekend and on Monday to have a greater impact, however.

It will ultimately boil down to updates on the coronavirus, however. The next big risk to the market is for the WHO to announce the coronavirus as a pandemic and for more cases in the U.S…

EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – 28/02/20

EOS

EOS rose by 2.31% on Thursday. Partially reversing a 13.10% tumble from Wednesday, EOS ended the day at $3.6174.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to an early morning intraday low $3.3900 before finding support.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $3.2070, EOS rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $3.7399.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $3.9899, EOS fell back to $3.50 levels before finding late support.

At the time of writing, EOS was up by 0.63% to $3.6402. A bullish start to the day saw EOS rise from an early morning low $3.6163 to a high $3.6812.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOS/USD 28/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to move back through the morning high $3.6812 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $3.7749.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break out from Thursday’s high $3.7399.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, however, the first major resistance level would likely leave EOS short of $3.90 levels.

Failure to move back through to $3.6812 levels could see EOS fall back into the red.

A fall back through the morning low to sub-$3.5820 levels would bring the first major support level at $3.4250 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, EOS should continue to steer clear of sub-$3.30 levels.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $3.4250

Major Resistance Level: $3.7749

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.62

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.76

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.82

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 1.72% on Thursday. Partially reversing a 9.25% tumble from Wednesday, Ethereum ended the day at $227.63.

A bearish start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning intraday low $209.26.

Ethereum fell through the first major support level at $217.57 and second major support level at $211.63 before finding support.

Tracking the broader market, Ethereum rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $239.00 before easing back to sub-$230 levels.

Coming up against the first major resistance level at $240.14, Ethereum fell to $222 levels before wrapping up the day at $227 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 1.92% to $231.99. A bullish start to the day saw Ethereum rise from an early morning low $226.61 to a high $234.90.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETH/USD 28/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to break back through the morning high $234.90 to bring the first major resistance level at $237.75 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $235 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound, the first major resistance level at $237.75 should leave Ethereum short of $240 levels.

Failure to move back through the morning high could see Ethereum give up the early gains.

A fall through back through to sub-$229 levels would bring the first major support level at $218.75 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$210 support levels.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $218.75

Major Resistance Level: $237.75

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rallied by 3.81% on Thursday. Partially reversing a 9.15% tumble from Wednesday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.23846.

A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning intraday low $0.22431 before making a move.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $0.24725.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.2490, Ripple’s XRP fell back to sub-$0.24 levels to limit the upside on the day.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 1.52% to $0.24209. A bullish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise from an early morning low $0.23839 to a high $0.24450.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRP/USD 28/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to break back through the morning high $0.24450 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.2490.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Thursday’s high $0.24725.

Barring a crypto rebound, resistance at $0.2450 would likely leave Ripple’s XRP short of the first major resistance level.

Failure to move through the morning high $0.24450 could see Ripple’s XRP fall back into the red.

A fall back through the morning low $0.23839 to sub-$0.2370 levels would bring the first major support level at $0.2261 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.22 levels on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $0.2261

Major Resistance Level: $0.2490

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – 28/02/20

Bitcoin rose by 0.21% on Wednesday. Partially reversing a 5.51% slide on Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $8,825.6.

A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin slide to an early morning intraday low $8,555.0 before finding support.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $8,515.3, Bitcoin recovered to a late afternoon intraday high $8,975.0.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $9,248.5, Bitcoin fell back to sub-$8,700 levels before moving back into the green.

The near-term bearish trend, formed at late June’s swing hi $13,764.0, remained firmly intact, with Bitcoin struggling to break out from $10,000 levels.

For the bulls, Bitcoin would need to break out from $11,000 levels to form a near-term bullish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the top 10 cryptos, it was a bullish day for the crypto majors.

Tron’s TRX, Ripple’s XRP, and Stellar’s Lumen led the way, with gains of 3.93%, 3.81%, and 3.06% respectively.

Binance Coin (+2.51%), Litecoin (+2.03%), and EOS (+2.31%) also found strong support.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+1.87%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+1.68%), Cardano’s ADA (+1.33%), Ethereum (+1.72%), Monero’s XMR (+0.33%), and Tezos (+1.62%) trailed the front runners.

Through the first half of the week, the crypto total market cap rose to a Monday high $290.09bn before hitting a low Thursday low $241.84bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $254.27bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to 64% levels before easing back. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 63.8%, which was still up from sub-63% levels seen on Monday.

Trading volumes recovered from sub-$160bn levels to hit a current week high $196.34bn on Thursday morning. At the time of writing, 24-hr volumes stood at $160.87bn.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.65% to $8,883.3. A relatively bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rise from an early morning low $8,792.2 to a high $8,908.3.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a bullish start to the day for the majors. Binance Coin (+2.09%), Cardano’s ADA (+2.37%), and Ethereum (+2.35%) led the way early on.

Monero’s XMR trailed the back, up by just 1.04% at the time of writing.

BTC/USD 28/02/20 Daily Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move back through the morning high $8,903 to bring the first major resistance level at $9,015.4 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break back to $9,000 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto recovery, the first major resistance level would likely pin Bitcoin back on the day.

In the event of a crypto rally, the second major resistance level at $9,205.2 and 38.2% FIB of $9,620 could come into play.

Failure to move back through the morning high $8,908.3 could see Bitcoin hit reverse.

A fall back through to sub-$8,790 levels would bring the first major support level at $8,595.4 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Bitcoin should well steer clear of the second major support level at $8,365.2 and the 23.6% FIB of $8,200.

European Equities: Futures Point to more Doom and Gloom ahead

Economic Calendar:

Friday, 28th February

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Jan)

French GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2nd Estimate

German Unemployment Change (Feb)

German Unemployment Rate (Feb)

Italian CPI (MoM) (Feb) Prelim

German CPI (MoM) (Feb) Prelim

The Majors

It was back into the deep red for the European majors, with Wednesday’s mixed session having been just a brief respite for the bulls.

The EuroStoxx600 slid by 3.75% to lead the way down, with the CAC40 and DAX40 ending the day down by 3.32% and 3.19% respectively.

A greater spread of the coronavirus across new countries and a sharp rise in new cases in Italy weighed on risk appetite on Thursday.

Fears of a recession in the world’s 8th largest economy rattled the markets, with China, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea already under the cosh.

Travel and Leisure stocks continued to bear the brunt of investor ire, though all sectors ended the day in the red.

The Stats

It was a relatively quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar on Thursday. Economic data included prelim February inflation figures out of Spain and finalized consumer confidence figures for the Eurozone.

Unsurprisingly, economic data continued to play 2nd fiddle to the news wires and coronavirus updates.

The Eurozone’s consumer confidence indicator came in at -6.6 according to finalized numbers, which was in line with prelim. In January, the indicator had stood at -8.1.

  • The pickup in consumer confidence was attributed to a brighter outlook on the economic situation. Sentiment will likely tumble in the next set of numbers.
  • By contrast, the Employment Expectations Indicator eased mildly from 105.3 to 105.0.

Later in the day, U.S 4th quarter GDP numbers and durable goods orders were in focus but also failed to influence late in the session.

Core durable goods rose by 0.9% in January, following a 0.1% rise in December. Durable goods fell by 0.2%, however, partially reversing a 2.9% jump from December.

2nd estimate GDP numbers were in line with 1st estimates, with even a 5.2% jump in pending home sales not enough to prevent the slide.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: autos were back into the red on Thursday. BMW and Volkswagen led the down, with the pair sliding by 3.80% and by 4.79% respectively. Continental and Daimler saw more modest losses of 2.48% and 2.69% respectively.

Things were no better for the banks, which saw heavier losses on the day. Commerzbank slid by 5.25%, with Deutsche Bank down by 5.55%.

Deutsche Lufthansa was the worst performer on the DAX for a 2nd consecutive day, sliding by 6.48%.

From the CAC, it was another bearish day for the banks. BNP Paribas slid by 5.87%, with Credit Agricole and Soc Gen seeing heavier losses of 6.16% and by 6.44% respectively.

The auto sector also struggled, with Peugeot and Renault ending the day down by 1.89% and 6.38% respectively.

Air France-KLM slumped by 7.17% on the day.

The latest sell-off leaves the majors in corrective territory, with the EuroStoxx600 way off its all-time high from earlier in the month.

On the VIX Index

The VIX resumed its upward trend on Thursday, surging by 42.09%. Reversing a 1.04% loss from Wednesday, a 5th day in the red out of 6 saw the VIX end the day at 39.2.

Risk aversion spread across the global financial markets, with the S&P500 sliding into corrective territory on Thursday. Coronavirus cases in the U.S and the talk of a U.S pandemic led the move into corrective territory.

We had seen the markets previously buy into the view that the U.S economy would likely be unscathed from the virus.

Commentary from the CDC and rise in the number of cases suggested otherwise, however, with the U.S economic outlook now also uncertain.

When considering the economies that have fallen at the hands of the virus and those at risk, the doom and gloom sentiment does seem justified.

For the current week, Monday through Thursday, the S&P500 was down by 10.76%.

VIX 28/02/20 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar on Friday. Economic data includes German unemployment figures and French consumer spending and 4th quarter GDP numbers.

Of less influence on the day include prelim inflation numbers out of Italy and Germany.

From outside of the Eurozone, U.S inflation, trade data,  personal spending, and Chicago PMI numbers will also influence late in the day.

While the stats from the Eurozone and the U.S will influence, expect coronavirus news to remain the key driver.

Bargain hunters may be looking for an entry point but with so much uncertainty, any upside would likely remain limited.

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the DAX was down by 269.5 points, while the Dow was up by 62 points.

The Dollar Takes a Hit as Economic Data Continues to Play 2nd Fiddle to the Coronavirus

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively busy day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen and Aussie Dollar were in action.

For the Japanese Yen

Economic data included, February inflation figures and January’s job to applications ratio, industrial production, and retail sales figures.

According to consumer price figures released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. The Ku-area of Tokyo saw the annual core rate of inflation ease from 0.7% to 0.5%, falling beyond a forecasted 0.6%.

  • Prices for Education slid by 6%, with prices for fuel, light and water charges falling by 2.8%.
  • There were solid increases in prices for clothes & footwear (+2.4%) and furniture and household utensils (+2.0%), however.
  • Prices for medical care (+1.3%), transportation and communication (+1.0%), culture and recreation (+0.9%) also provided support.
  • Prices for housing rose by just 0.5%, however.

With inflationary pressures easing in February, jobs available also eased, as the jobs/applications ratio fell from 1.57 to 1.49. The ratio last stood at sub-1.50 levels back in May 2017, when the ratio had also stood at 1.49.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.638 to ¥109.616 upon release of the figures that preceded the industrial production and retail sales figures.

Retail Sales and Industrial Production

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, retail sales fell by 0.4% in January, year-on-year, following a 2.6% slide in December. Economists had forecasted a 1.1% decline.

Industrial production increased by 0.8% in January, according to prelim figures, following a 1.2% rise in December. Economists had forecast a 0.2% rise.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry,

Industries that mainly contributed to the increase were:

  • Motor vehicles, transport equipment (excl. motor vehicles), and other manufacturing.

Industries that mainly contributed to a decrease were

  • Production machinery, general-purpose and business orientated machinery, and electrical machinery, and information, and communication electronics equipment.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.652 to ¥109.571 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.06% to ¥109.52 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Aussie Dollar

According to figures released by RBA, total credit increased by 0.3%, month-on-month, in January. In December, credit had risen by 0.2%.

  • Business credit jumped by 0.5%, following a 0.2% rise in December, supporting the marginal uptick.
  • Personal credit fell at a sharper pace, however. Following a 0.4% decline in December, personal credit fell by 0.6% in January.
  • Housing credit rose by 0.3%, following a 0.3% increase in December.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.65811 to $0.65832 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.20% to $0.6582.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.03% to $0.6309.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include German unemployment and French consumer spending figures.

Barring material deviation from 1st estimate numbers, 2nd estimate GDP figures out of France will likely have a muted impact on the EUR.

Later in the European session, prelim Italian and German inflation figures for February will also likely have a muted impact on the EUR.

Outside of the numbers expect news updates on the coronavirus to also provide direction. We’ve seen the Dollar take a hit as the coronavirus spreads across the U.S, leaving the U.S economy at risk of a slowdown.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.03% at $1.0998.

For the Pound

It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.

We can expect the Pound to be under pressure as the markets shift attention to negotiations that commence next week.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.04% to $1.2892.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar.

Key stats include Chicago PMI, personal spending, inflation and trade data. With the markets now beginning to expect monetary policy easing, today’s stats will have a material influence.

We expect finalized consumer sentiment figures for February to have a muted impact on the day.

Outside of the numbers, news updates on the coronavirus will also influence.

The Dollar Spot Index slid by 0.49% to 98.508 on Thursday.

For the Loonie

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with key stats including GDP and RMPI numbers.

With the Bank of Canada in action next week, any soft numbers and expect the markets to price in a rate cut.

The BoC had previously talked of a willingness to make a move should economic indicators support a cut. With the coronavirus spreading globally and weighing on global trade and consumption, expect the numbers to do the talking.

The Loonie was down by 0.02% at C$1.3393 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

Here We Go Again – The Pound Is Set for another Rollercoaster of a Summer!

We saw the Pound briefly visit $1.30 levels on Tuesday. The upside came off the back of a combination of events.

Firstly, prevalent Dollar weakness stemming from a shift in monetary policy divergence in favor of the Pound supported the upside in Cable. Secondly, however, was the EU’s terms of negotiation that EU member states finalized on 25th. It wasn’t the terms but the desire to form an ambitious agreement that impressed the markets.

The EU and the UK are scheduled to begin hammering out a trade agreement next week. While the Pound found early support, there is a large degree of apprehension.

Britain’s transition period ends on 31st December at which point Britain goes it alone, with or without the EU as a trading partner.

The Issues

Unsurprisingly, there are a number of key issues that remain. These issues continue to exist in spite of Britain and the EU meeting at the table for more than 3-years.

It ultimately took Johnson and a return of a Tory Party majority to force through the Withdrawal Bill and formalize Britain’s divorce with the EU.

So, with Britain and the EU left with 10-months to thrash out a trade agreement, what are the key issues?

The British government is looking for the following:

  • Abandon commitments made back in October in the EU-UK political declaration that accompanied the Withdrawal Bill.
  • Ultimately, the British government is looking to deliver Brexit in its true form, with Britain free from EU rules and regulations. The last thing that the British government will accept is any strings attached that leaves Britain under any EU laws.
  • A comprehensive trade agreement in the same form as the Canada agreement supplemented by fishery law enforcement.
  • Predetermined judicial cooperation in criminal matters and also transport, and energy.
  • Fishery issues have already hit the headlines before talks even began. For those who voted to leave the EU, it may be somewhat alarming to hear that the EU wants continued access to British waters. An EU concession here is for annual negotiations in order to agree on continued access for EU vessels.

Other key points to negotiate include, but are not limited to:

  • State aid/subsidies
  • Workers’ rights
  • Tariff Free Access to the EU Market
  • Minimal customs barriers.
  • Financial Services

The Timeline

As things stand, Britain and the EU have until June to agree on an outline to a trade agreement.

This would then need to be finalized by September, which gives both sides just 7-months.

When you consider the chatter from Macron and senior French government officials, their preference would be to prevent progress. The alternative would be to tie Britain into EU laws, which is clearly a no-no for Britain.

With Angela Merkel on the way out, Macron has been vying to become the voice of Europe.

Bringing down the British government and leaving Britain to grapple with WTO trade terms would be quite a coup.

So, if the EU and Britain fail to make solid progress in the coming 4-months, the writing may be on the wall for Britain and the Pound.

British Prime Minister Johnson has managed to block the chance of any extension to the transition period.

When considering the issues at hand, even the more optimistic may consider the path ahead as a difficult on.

For that very reason, the Pound’s rollercoaster ride is likely to resume. At least through to the end of the 3rd quarter.

As far as the British Government is concerned, if there is a lack of progress by June then the government will walk away. That means a no-deal hard Brexit that the markets feared since the EU referendum outcome.

What’s next?

Britain and the EU meet next week to get things going and there’s likely to be plenty of chatter.

The EU must appear to be in a position of strength, able to protect the rights of its remaining member states.

Failure to achieve this would raise the chances of further departures from the EU. It’s hardly a surprise that Macron has taken such a position on Brexit.

It’s also going to be of little surprise that he will maintain his position until the bitter end.

After all, there’s little point in being the voice of a Europe that is broken and more interested in protectionism.

For the Pound

We can expect the rollercoaster ride of the last few years to resume.

The good news, for now, is that economic indicators have shown an improvement in economic conditions.

All of this has been in line with the BoE’s post-Brexit outlook, however, which suggests a slowdown to come.

Throw in the likely effect of the coronavirus on the global economy and the doom and gloom may well build.

Could Macron call for the tunnel to be blocked in the event of a no-deal end to the transition period?

Johnson may insist on it should the spread of the coronavirus continue through to June…

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.08% to $1.28859, with the return to sub-$1.29 levels leaving the Pound down by 0.60% for the current week and by 2.42% for the current month…

Expect $1.25 levels to be on the cards should it become painfully clear that talks are going to go nowhere…

GBP/USD 27/02/20 Daily Chart

The Mid-Week Wrap – Asian Markets and Stocks

The last week of the month usually is pretty quiet. Is it also the case this week?

For the U.S Dollar

It was a quiet start to the week on the economic data front. The markets needed until Tuesday for consumer confidence figures that failed to impress.

We saw the Dollar under pressure at the start of the week, with last week’s PMI numbers raising the chances of a FED rate hike in the 1st half of the year.

The shift in sentiment saw demand for the Dollar ease early in the week. Following FED Chair Powell’s testimony, the markets had anticipated a resilient U.S economy. Recent economic indicators suggested otherwise, with the U.S private sector contracting in February.

Throw in the rising number of cases of the coronavirus and the CDC’s outlook and the U.S economy also faces headwinds.

Through the remainder of the week, inflation and personal spending figures on Friday will garner plenty of attention. Personal spending figures will be of particular interest as it will indicate any consumer concerns over the virus.

Ahead of the numbers, 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter are due out along with durable goods orders on Thursday.

Expect the durable goods orders to have a greater impact, as the markets look for coronavirus impact on demand.

For the EUR

It was also a relatively quiet start to the week. Germany’s business confidence 2nd estimate GDP numbers were in focus.

While 2nd estimate GDP figures were in line with 1st estimate, there was an improvement in business sentiment.

February’s IFO survey came ahead of the spread of the coronavirus through Europe, however, limiting any upside for the EUR.

Over the remainder of the week, the focus will shift to consumer spending and 4th quarter GDP numbers out of France. There are also unemployment numbers out of Germany to also consider.

For now, we’ve seen the EUR find support as the sentiment shifts towards the U.S economy. Ultimately, however, the Eurozone economy remains more at risk to a marked slowdown that that of the U.S, which suggests the upside to be limited.

A more material spread of the virus across the U.S, however, would alter that outlook.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet week on the economic data front and there have been no material stats to provide support.

We saw the Pound bounce back to $1.30 levels on Tuesday following the EU member states desire to form an ambitious trade agreement with Britain.

That comes with strings attached, however, which Britain is unwilling to agree to.

On Thursday, the British government is due to announce its starting terms, which will give an idea of just how far apart the 2-sides are.

Expect reaction to influence the Pound over the remainder of the week.

Stocks go down due to the virus in an environment of no macroeconomic data releases. In the meantime, how have the commodity currencies reacted to the recent developments in the markets?

We saw the commodity currencies fair better in the early part of the week, in spite of the risk aversion.

This was largely due to the shift in sentiment towards the U.S economy and monetary policy

That being said, it’s still been a bearish week for the commodity currencies.

For the Aussie Dollar, new CAPEX figures for the 4th quarter failed to impress this morning.

With business investment on the slide, any slide in consumer spending would add further pressure on the RBA to make a move.

In the last meeting, the RBA had raised some concerns over the likely impact of the coronavirus on the global economy. Since then, we can expect that concern to have spiked as the virus reaches new countries.

It certainly looks set for a particularly dovish RBA next week, which should limit any upside for the Aussie Dollar.

Things are not much better for the Kiwi Dollar.

Retail sales rose by just 0.7% in the 4th quarter, following a 1.7% rise in the 3rd, with the numbers coming ahead of key stats on Thursday.

While January trade data delivered support, with exports to China on the rise once more in January, it was business confidence that weighed.

The trade figures failed to capture the effects of the extended Chinese New Year and quarantines across the country. February’s figures are expected to be quite dire, however, if business confidence numbers are anything to go by.

That leaves the Kiwi under immense pressure, with economic disruption expected to continue beyond the 1st quarter.

A slight decline in all of the commodity currency charts. Meanwhile, how have the major Asian countries fared during this period? I assume they have been hit the most by the coronavirus.

For the Japanese Yen

We saw the Japanese Yen find renewed interest this week, at the expense of the Greenback. With risk aversion continuing to plague the markets, the rise in the number of cases in the U.S and weak data provided the upside.

The markets had previously moved away from the Yen over concerns that the region would be harder hit by the virus.

This is likely to be the case, however, which should limit any return to ¥107 – 108 levels against the Greenback.

On the economic data front, retail sales and industrial production figures due out on Friday will unlikely reflect the effects of the virus.

Dire numbers, however, would suggest that the BoJ will need to make a move of some sort…

For the rest of the Asian Majors

Unsurprisingly, the rest of the Asian majors have struggled in the week.

We’ve seen the Taiwanese Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Korean Won, and Chinese Yuan struggle as disruption to trade is expected to hurt the respective economies.

Monetary and fiscal policy support has been delivered by a number of central banks in the region.

Uncertainty over the time frame involved, however, and how bad it could get continues to pressure the majors. This will likely continue near-term or at least until the pace of the global spread abates.

Litecoin, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – 27/02/20

Litecoin

Litecoin tumbled by 14.81% on Wednesday. Following on from a 6.08% slide on Tuesday, Litecoin ended the day at $60.42.

A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin fall from an early morning intraday high $72.16 to a late afternoon intraday low $57.52.

Steering clear of the major resistance levels, Litecoin fell through the major support levels of the day. Litecoin also slid through the 23.6% FIB of $62.00.

Late in the day, Litecoin briefly broke back through the third major support level at $58.49 and 23.6% FIB before wrapping up the day at $60 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.22% to $60.29. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to an early morning low $57.10 before striking a high $61.02.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTC/USD 27/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move through to $63.40 levels to support a run the first major resistance level at $69.21.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from the 23.6% FIB of $62.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound, Litecoin would likely fall well short of the first major resistance level.

Failure to move through to $63.40 levels could see Litecoin fall deeper into the red.

A fall back through the morning low $57.10 would bring the first major support level at $54.57 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$50 support levels on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $54.57

Major Resistance Level: $69.21

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $62

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $78

62% FIB Retracement Level: $104

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen slid by 7.57% on Wednesday. Following on from a 6.47% fall on Tuesday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the day at $0.059109.

Tracking the broader market, Stellar’s Lumen slid from an early morning intraday high $0.064759 to a late afternoon intraday low $0.056106.

Stellar’s Lumen fell through the first major support level at $0.06249 and the second major support level at $0.06024.

Finding support late on, Stellar’s Lumen briefly moved back through the second major support level before wrapping up the day at sub-$0.060 levels.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down by 1.73% to $0.058088. A bearish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall from an early morning high $0.058438 to a low $0.056181.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLM/USD 27/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to move through to $0.060 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.06388.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break out from the morning high $0.058438.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound, resistance at $0.060 would likely leave Stellar’s Lumen short of the first major resistance level.

Failure to move through to $0.060 levels could see Stellar’s Lumen struggle in the day.

A fall back through the morning low $0.0561818 would bring the first major support level at $0.05522 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.055 support levels.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $0.05522

Major Resistance Level: $0.06388

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1051

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1433

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2050

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX tumbled by 13.26% on Wednesday. Following on from a 4.65% fall on Tuesday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.016410.

Bearish through the day, Tron’s TRX fell from an early morning intraday high $0.019145 to a late afternoon intraday low $0.015610.

The reversal saw Tron’s TRX slide through the major support levels of the day before finding support.

Finding support late on, Tron’s TRX recovered to $0.0167 levels before easing back. The third major support level at $0.01670 pinned Tron’s TRX back late in the day.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was up by 1.83% to $0.016710. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning low $0.015910 before striking a high $0.01680.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRX/USD 27/02/20 Daily Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to move through to $0.0170 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.01850.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break out from the morning high $0.01680.

Barring an extended crypto rebound, resistance at $0.018 would likely leave Tron’s TRX short of the first major resistance level.

Failure to move through to $0.0170 levels could see Tron’s TRX slide back into the red.

A fall back through to sub-$0.016 levels would bring the first major support level at $0.01497 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of sub-$0.015 levels on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $0.01497

Major Resistance Level: $0.01850

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0322

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0452

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0663

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – 27/02/20

EOS

EOS tumbled by 13.10% on Wednesday. Following on from a 1.25% fall on Tuesday, EOS ended the day at $3.5377.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning intraday high $4.1114 before sliding to an early morning intraday low $3.7700.

Steering clear of the major resistance levels, EOS fell through the first major support level at $3.9051.

Finding support through the late morning, EOS broke back through the first major support level to $3.98 levels before hitting reverse.

EOS fell through the major support levels to a late afternoon intraday low $3.3285.

Finding support late on, EOS broke back through the third major support level at $3.3775 to wrap up the day at $3.5 levels.

At the time of writing, EOS was up by 0.57% to $3.5579. A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to an early morning low $3.3900 before striking a high $3.5900.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOS/USD 27/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to move back through to $3.66 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $3.9899.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break back through the morning high $3.5900.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, however, the first major resistance level would likely leave EOS short of $4.00 levels.

Failure to move back through to $3.66 levels could see EOS fall back into the red.

A fall back through the morning low $3.3900 would bring the first major support level at $3.2070 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, EOS should continue to steer well clear of sub-$3.30 levels.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $3.2070

Major Resistance Level: $3.9899

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.62

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.76

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.82

Ethereum

Ethereum tumbled by 9.25% on Wednesday. Following on from a 7.17% slide on Tuesday, Ethereum ended the day at $223.5.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high $250.84 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $260.35, Ethereum slid to a late afternoon intraday low $215.33.

Ethereum fell through the first major support level at $238.55 and the second major support level at $230.59. Of greater significance, however, was a fall through the 23.6% FIB of $257.00.

Through the latter part of the day, Ethereum recovered to $230 levels before falling back through the second major support level.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 2.75% to $217.36. A bearish start to the day saw Ethereum fall from an early morning high $223.85 to a low $209.26.

Ethereum fell through the first major support level at $217.57 and second major support level at $211.63 before finding support.

ETH/USD 27/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to break back through the first major support level and move through to $234 levels to bring the first major resistance level at $240.14 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $230 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound, resistance at $230 would likely cap any upside.

Failure to move through to $234 levels could see Ethereum fall deeper into the red.

A fall through back through the second major support level would bring sub-$200 levels into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Ethereum should avoid a return to sub-$210 levels.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $217.57

Major Resistance Level: $240.14

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP tumbled by 9.15% on Wednesday. Following on from a 6.65% slide on Tuesday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.22933.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $0.25568 before hitting reverse.

Steering clear of the major resistance levels, Ripple’s XRP fell to a late afternoon intraday low $0.22292.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the first major support level at $0.2455 and the second major support level at $0.2381.

Through the latter part of the day, Ripple’s XRP recovered to $0.2360 levels before sliding back to sub-$0.23 levels.

The second major support level at $0.2381 pinned Ripple’s XRP back late in the day.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.29% to $0.22999. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning low $0.22431 before striking a high $0.23140.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRP/USD 27/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to break back through to $0.2360 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.2490.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $0.24 levels.

Barring a crypto rebound, resistance at $0.23 would likely leave Ripple’s XRP well short of the first major resistance level.

Failure to move through to $0.2360 levels could see Ripple’s XRP fall back into the red.

A fall back through the morning low $0.22431 would bring the first major support level at $0.2163 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.22 levels on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $0.2163

Major Resistance Level: $0.2490

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Will U.S Durable Goods Orders Give the Markets More Angst as the Number of U.S Cases Rise?

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively busy day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and Aussie Dollar were in action.

For the Kiwi Dollar

New Zealand’s trade deficit narrowed from NZ$4,460m to NZ$3,870 year-on-year in January. Month-on-month, the trade balance fell from an NZ$384m surplus to an NZ$340m deficit.

According to NZ Stats,

  • Total exports rose by NZ$382m (8.8%) from January 2019 to hit NZ$4.7bn.
    • Exports to China jumped by NZ$302m (31%) to NZ$1.3bn in January, compared with January 2019.
    • A jump in dairy, meat, and log exports led the way.
    • The rise in exports to China meant that China accounted for 27% of total exports, all of which came before the extended CNY holidays and quarantines across the country.
  • Total imports fell by NZ$212m (4.0%) to NZ$5.1bn in January 2020.
    • A slide in the import of vehicles, parts, and accessories (NZ$116m) weighed on imports. Motor car imports were the main driver.
    • Imports from China stood at NZ$1.1bn in January 2020, which accounted for 22% of total monthly imports. On an annual basis, 20% of total imports were from China.

The New Zealand Dollar moved from $0.62898 to $0.62900 upon release of the figures that preceded January business confidence figures.

In January, the ANZ Business Confidence Index fell from -13.2 to -19.4. Economists had forecast a rise to -7.9.

According to the latest ANZ Report,

  • A net 12% of firms expect stronger activity ahead for their own business, falling by 5.
  • Agriculture sector own activity tumbled from +16 to -30, with manufacturing own activity down from +24 to +4.
  • Expected profitability, investment and employment intentions were all in decline.
  • The downward trend was attributed to the spread of the coronavirus. ANZ noted that survey responses received after the COVID-19 outbreak hit the headlines were more negative. These accounted for one-third of the total respondents.
  • On the bright side, the construction sector saw a rosier outlook, with retail sector pricing intentions jumping to the highest level since 2008.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.62866 to $0.62900 upon release of the numbers. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.05% to $0.6290.

For the Aussie Dollar

Private new capital expenditure slid by 2.8% in the 4th quarter, following on from a revised 0.4% decline in the 3rd quarter. Economists had forecast a 0.4% rise.

According to the ABS,

  • Building and structures saw a 5.9% slide, while new CAPEX expenditure on equipment, plant, and machinery rose by 0.8%.
  • In the 3rd quarter, investments in building and structures had risen by 2.5%, while expenditure on equipment, plant, and machinery had fallen by 3.6%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.65511 to $0.65535 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.18% to $0.6556.

While the Aussie Dollar was up in the early hours, the slump in new CAPEX expenditure gives the RBA further reason to cut rates. The low-interest-rate environment was not only meant to support consumers but also fuel business spending.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.16% to ¥110.25 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include prelim February inflation figures out of Spain and finalized Eurozone consumer confidence figures.

Barring a material pullback in inflation, however, we would expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the EUR.

Expect any revision to Eurozone consumer confidence figures to influence, however, as the markets search for sentiment towards the spread of the coronavirus.

Outside of the numbers, expect market risk sentiment to continue to provide direction. For the EUR, early support kicked in as the markets reacted to news of a rise in new coronavirus cases in the U.S. The upward swing has come as the markets reverse bets on the U.S economy being unscathed from the spread of the virus.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.26% at $1.0909.

For the Pound

It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.

While there are no stats to consider, the British Government is due to release its terms for trade negotiations with the EU.

It will all come down to how far apart the 2-sides are from the get-go and how the EU responds and Boris Johnson and David Foster react in return.

Expectations are for a difficult road ahead, which should peg the Pound back at $1.29 levels and bring $1.28 levels back into play.

On the monetary policy front, BoE MPC member Cunliffe is scheduled to speak in the early afternoon. Following Cunliffe’s concerns over the negative effects of prolonged monetary policy easing, expect any dovish chatter to weigh on the Pound.

We’ve yet to hear of central banks wanting to step in as the coronavirus continues to spread. This may well change in the coming weeks…

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.12% to $1.2921.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. January durable goods orders and 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter are due out.

Barring deviation from 1st estimate numbers, expect the core durable goods and durable goods orders to have the greatest impact.

Following last week’s particularly disappointing PMI numbers, any slide in orders will pressure the Greenback further.

Initial weekly jobless claims and pending home sales figures for January are also due out. We will also expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the Dollar, however.

Outside of the numbers, market risk sentiment will continue to influence.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.06% to 98.939.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with key stats limited to 4th quarter current account figures out of Canada.

We can expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the Loonie, however.

Focus through the day will be on the economic outlook and demand for crude oil, which remains Loonie negative.

The Loonie was down by 0.06% at C$1.3341 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

European Equities: Another Slide on the Cards and the Prospects of a Global Pandemic Intensify

Economic Calendar:

Thursday, 27th February

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Feb) Prelim

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Feb) Prelim

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Feb) Final

Friday, 28th February

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Jan)

French GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2nd Estimate

German Unemployment Change (Feb)

German Unemployment Rate (Feb)

Italian CPI (MoM) (Feb) Prelim

German CPI (MoM) (Feb) Prelim

The Majors

It was a mixed day for the European majors on Wednesday, with investors tiptoeing back into riskier assets. Support came in spite of the continued spread of the coronavirus, with a decision by EU member states to leave borders open delivering the support.

The continued concern over the spread of the virus was evidenced in travel and leisure stocks, however, that were the worst performers on the day.

The DAX30 saw its 5th consecutive day in the red, falling by 0.12%. Finding support was the CAC40, which eked out a 0.09% gain, while the EuroStoxx600 ending the day flat.

The Stats

It was a relatively quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar on Wednesday. Economic data included jobseeker numbers out of France.

The numbers had a muted impact on the majors, however, in spite of total job seekers falling from 3,292.9k to 3,264.8k.

Concerns over the economic outlook continue to mute the effect of historical data that have yet to reflect the impact of the coronavirus.

Out of the U.S, January’s new home sales also had a muted impact on the majors late in the European session.

A bullish start to the day across the U.S majors did provide support, however…

The Market Movers

For the DAX: autos were amongst the top performers on Wednesday as investors went bargain hunting. BMW and Daimler led the way with gains of 1.26% and 1.05% respectively. Continental and Volkswagen saw more modest gains of 0.94% and 0.24% respectively.

It was a mixed day for the banks, however, with Commerzbank falling by 0.35%, while Deutsche Bank rose by 1.38%.

Deutsche Lufthansa was the worst performer on the DAX30, falling by 1.99%.

From the CAC, it was another bearish day for the banks. BNP Paribas fell by 1.00%, with Credit Agricole and Soc Gen declining by 1.14% and by 1.01% respectively.

The auto sector found support, however, with Renault and Peugeot ending the day up by 1.22% and 4.75% respectively.

Air France-KLM continued to struggle, however, with a 0.87% loss on the day.

On the VIX Index

The VIX saw red for the 1st time in 5-days, with a 1.04% loss. Following an 11.27% gain on Tuesday, the VIX ended the day at 27.6.

While the U.S equity markets had found support through the early part of the day, news updates on the coronavirus led to a late reversal, leaving the S&P500 down by 0.38% on the day.

The reversal was not enough to drive the VIX into positive territory, however, though the downside for the VIX may be temporary…

VIX 27/02/20 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar on Thursday. Economic data includes prelim February inflation figures out of Spain and finalized Eurozone consumer confidence numbers.

From the U.S, durable goods orders and 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter also provided direction.

Expect the Eurozone consumer confidence and numbers from the U.S to have the greatest influence from the calendar.

It will ultimately boil down to news updates and the later coronavirus numbers…

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the DAX was down by 275.5 points, with the Dow down by 218 points.

Litecoin, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – 26/02/20

Litecoin

Litecoin slid by 6.08% on Tuesday. Following on from a 5.31% decline on Monday, Litecoin ended the day at $70.96.

A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin fall from an early morning intraday high $76.12 to a late morning low $72.64.

Steering clear of the major support and resistance levels, Litecoin recovered to $75 levels before hitting reverse.

The reversal saw Litecoin fall through the first major support level at $71.55 to a late afternoon intraday low $69.30.

Finding support late in the day, Litecoin moved back through to $70 levels to reduce the loss on the day.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 3.83% to $68.24. A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin fall from an early morning high $72.16 to a low $66.61.

Litecoin fell through the first major support level at $68.13 before finding support.

LTC/USD 26/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move through to $72.10 levels to support a run the first major resistance level at $74.95.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break back through to $70 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound, Litecoin would likely fall well short of the first major resistance level.

Failure to move through to $72.10 levels could see Litecoin fall deeper into the red.

A fall back through the first major support level at $68.13 to sub-$67 levels would bring the second major support level at $65.31 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$65 levels on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $68.13

Major Resistance Level: $74.95

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $62

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $78

62% FIB Retracement Level: $104

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen slid by 6.47% on Tuesday. Following on from a 5.82% fall on Monday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the day at $0.064739.

Tracking the broader market, Stellar’s Lumen slid from an early morning intraday high $0.069264 to a late intraday low $0.063625.

Stellar’s Lumen fell through the first major support level at $0.06649 and the second major support level at $0.06384.

Finding support late on, Stellar’s Lumen moved back through the second major support level to wrap up the day at $0.064 levels.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down by 4.47% to $0.061844. A bearish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen slide from an early morning high $0.064759 to a low $0.060836.

Stellar’s Lumen fell through the first major support level at $0.06249.

XLM/USD 26/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to move through the first major support level to $0.06590 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.06813.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break out from the morning high $0.064759.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound, resistance at $0.065 would likely leave Stellar’s Lumen short of the first major resistance level.

Failure to move through to $0.06590 levels could see Stellar’s Lumen struggle in the day.

A fall through the second major support level at $0.06024 would bring sub-$0.060 levels into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of the third major support level at $0.05460.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $0.06249

Major Resistance Level: $0.06813

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1051

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1433

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2050

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX fell by 4.65% on Tuesday. Following on from a 6.94% slide on Monday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.018995.

A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to a mid-morning low $0.019284 before striking a mid-day intraday high $0.019958.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.02112, Tron’s TRX slid to a late afternoon intraday low $0.01870.

The reversal saw Tron’s TRX fall through the first major support level at $0.01892 before late support kicked in.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 7.85% to $0.017504. A bearish start to the day saw Tron’s TRX slide from an early morning high $0.019145 to a low $0.016290.

Tron’s TRX fell through the day’s major support levels before a move back through the third major support level at $0.01670.

TRX/USD 26/02/20 Daily Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to move through to $0.01920 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.01974.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break back through the second major support level at $0.01796 and the first major support level at $0.01848.

Barring an extended crypto rebound, resistance at $0.019 would likely leave Tron’s TRX well short of the first major resistance level.

Failure to move through to $0.01920 levels could see Tron’s TRX slide deeper into the red.

A fall back through the third major support level at $0.01670 would bring sub-$0.016 levels into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, the third major support level should limit any downside on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $0.01848

Major Resistance Level: $0.01974

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0322

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0452

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0663

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – 26/02/20

EOS

EOS fell by 1.25% on Tuesday. Following on from a 6.10% tumble on Monday, EOS ended the day at $4.0845.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to a mid-morning low $3.9996 before striking a mid-day intraday high $4.2430.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $4.3899, EOS slid to a late intraday low $3.8947.

EOS came within range of the first major support level at $3.8883 before moving back through to $4.00 levels.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 4.63% to $3.8953. A bearish start to the day saw EOS fall from an early morning high $4.1114 to a low $3.7700.

Steering clear of the major resistance levels, EOS fell through the first major support level at $3.9051.

EOS/USD 26/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to move back through the first major support level to $4.10 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $4.2534.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break back through to $4.00 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound, however, EOS would likely fall short of $4.10 levels on the day.

Failure to move back through to $4.10 levels could see EOS fall deeper into the red.

A fall back through the morning low $3.7700 would bring the second major support level at $3.7258 back into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, EOS should continue to steer well clear of sub-$3.70 levels.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $3.9051

Major Resistance Level: $4.2534

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.62

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.76

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.82

Ethereum

Ethereum slid by 7.17% on Tuesday. Following on from a 3.69% fall on Monday, Ethereum ended the day at $246.5.

Bearish throughout the day, Ethereum fell from an early morning intraday high $266.24 to a late intraday low $244.44.

The reversal saw Ethereum fall through the 23.6% FIB of $257 and the first major support level at $254.87.

Finding support at the second major support level at $244.43, Ethereum briefly recovered to $250 levels before easing back.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 3.72% to $237.33. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $250.84 before sliding to a low $234.00.

Steering clear of the major resistance levels, Ethereum fell through the first major support level at $238.55.

ETH/USD 26/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to break back through the first major support level and move through to $252 levels to bring the first major resistance level at $260.35 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $250 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound, resistance at $250 would likely cap any upside.

Failure to move through to $252 levels could see Ethereum fall deeper into the red.

A fall through back through the morning low $234.00 would bring the second major support level at $230.59 into play.

Barring a broad-based crypto sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$230 support levels.

The second major support level at $230.59 should limit any downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $238.55

Major Resistance Level: $260.35

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP slid by 6.65% on Tuesday. Following on from a 4.65% decline on Monday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.25281.

Tracking the broader market, Ripple’s XRP slid from an early morning intraday high $0.27124 to a late intraday low $0.25100.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the first major support level at $0.2613 and the second major support level at $0.2519.

Finding support late in the day, Ripple’s XRP broke back through the second major support level.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 4.47% to $0.24150. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.25244 before sliding to a low $0.23410.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the first major support level at $0.2455 and the second major support level at $0.2381.

XRP/USD 26/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to break back through the first major support level and hit $0.2580 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.2657.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $0.25 levels.

Barring a crypto rebound, resistance at $0.25 would likely leave Ripple’s XRP short of the first major resistance level.

Failure to move back through to $0.2580 levels could see Ripple’s XRP struggle throughout the day.

A fall back through the second major support level at $0.2381 would bring sub-$0.23 levels into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of the third major support level at $0.21790.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $0.2455

Major Resistance Level: $0.2657

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – 26/02/20

Bitcoin slid by 3.58% on Tuesday. Following on from a 3.11% decline from Monday, Bitcoin ended the day at $9,327.5.

A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall from an early morning high $9,674.9 to a mid-morning low $9,512.4 before finding support.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $9,402.87, Bitcoin recovered to a mid-day intraday high $9,691.9 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $9,983.67, Bitcoin slid to a late intraday low $9,251.4.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $9,402.87 and 38.2% FIB of $9,260.

Finding support late in the day, Bitcoin broke back through the 38.2% FIB to wrap up the day at $9,300 levels.

The near-term bearish trend, formed at late June’s swing hi $13,764.0, remained firmly intact, with Bitcoin struggling to break out from $10,000 levels.

For the bulls, Bitcoin would need to break out from $11,000 levels to form a near-term bullish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the top 10 cryptos, it was another bearish day for the crypto majors.

Tezos led the way down, sliding by 12.07%.

Binance Coin (-8.32%), Bitcoin Cash ABC (-6.21%), Bitcoin Cash SV (-7.17%), Ethereum (-7.17%), Litecoin (-6.08%), Ripple’s XRP (-6.65%), and Stellar’s Lumen (-6.47%) also saw heavy losses.

Things were not much better for the rest of the pack, however.

Cardano’s ADA (-5.29%), EOS (-1.25%), Monero’s XMR (-3.48%), and Tron’s TRX (-4.65%) were also in the deep red.

Through the start of the week, the crypto total market cap rose to a Monday high $285.11bn before hitting a low Wednesday low $260.40bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $262.08bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance was on the rise at the start of the week. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 64.2%, up from sub-63% levels earlier in the day on Monday.

Trading volumes recovered from sub-$160bn levels to hit a current week high $165.37 on Wednesday morning. At the time of writing, 24-hr volumes stood at $165.37bn.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 1.22% to $9,213.4. A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall from an early morning high $9,385.9 to a low $9,130.0.

Steering clear of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin fell through the 38.2% FIB of $9,260 and the first major support level at $9,155.30.

Elsewhere, it was another sea of red across the crypto-board.

Tron’s TRX and Bitcoin Cash SV led the way, with losses of 9.18% and 9.21% respectively.

Binance Coin (-4.64%), Cardano’s ADA (-5.91%), EOS (-4.96%), Litecoin (-4.04%), Ripple’s XRP (-4.73%), and Stellar’s Lumen (-5.00%) were also in the deep red.

Through the early part of the day, Monero’s XMR saw a modest loss of 2.48% relative to the rest of the pack.

BTC/USD 26/02/20 Daily Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move back through to $9,420 levels to bring the first major resistance level at $9,595.80 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break back through the 38.2% FIB of $9,260.0.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound, resistance at $9,400 would likely leave Bitcoin short of the first major resistance level at $9,595.80.

Failure to move back through to $9,420 levels could see Bitcoin fall deeper into the red.

A fall back through the morning low $9,130.0 would bring the second major support level at $8,983.10 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$9,000 levels.

Risk Aversion Likely to Linger, with Economic Data on the Lighter Side Today

Earlier in the Day:

It was another quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action, with housing sector data in focus.

For the Aussie Dollar

Construction work done slid by 3% in the 4th quarter, following a 0.4% fall in the 3rd quarter. Economists had forecast a decline of 1%.

According to the ABS,

  • Total building work done fell by 4.1%, while total engineering work down fell by 1.5%

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.65979 to $0.65989 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.17% to $0.6593.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.01% to ¥110.21 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.14% to $0.6312.

Outside of the numbers, the markets reacted to the overnight slide in the U.S majors and news updates on the spread of the coronavirus.

The risk aversion weighed on the Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Dollar and the Asian equity markets, with the Nikkei down by 1.96% at the time of writing. The ASX200 led the way down, however, tumbling by 2.12%.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include French jobseeker figures. Barring a marked increase, the numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the EUR, however.

Outside of the numbers, risk sentiment will continue to pressure the EUR. Economic disruption stemming from the spread of the coronavirus is expected to materially affect the Eurozone economy.

ECB President Lagarde, due to speak later today, could raise the prospects of further support. She may, however, also call on member states to deliver fiscal policy support. Such calls from the ECB have fallen on deaf ears until now.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.09% at $1.0872.

For the Pound

It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.

We saw the Pound find strong support on Tuesday as EU ministers talked of a substantial, ambitious and wide-ranging partnership with the UK.

With talks scheduled to commence next week, the British government is due to release its terms of negotiations tomorrow. The markets will get an idea of just how far apart the two sides are…

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.02% to $1.3003.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. January’s new home sales figures are due out later today.

With a lack of stats for the markets to consider, expect some Dollar sensitivity to today’s numbers. Mortgage rates and labor market conditions are all supportive of the housing sector. Any weakness in sales may test risk sentiment.

Ultimately, however, the Dollar will be wedged between sentiment towards monetary policy and safe-haven demand.

Last week’s private sector PMIs and the continued spread of the coronavirus has raised the probability of the FED cutting rates.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.07% to 99.035.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction.

The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk appetite and crude oil prices.

A steadying of crude oil prices early in the day eased pressure on the Loonie.

The Loonie was down by 0.02% at C$1.3281 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

European Equities: Covid-19 News Updates and ECB President Lagarde In Focus

Economic Calendar:

Wednesday, 26th February

France Jobseekers Total

Thursday, 27th February

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Feb) Prelim

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Feb) Prelim

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Feb) Final

Friday, 28th February

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Jan)

French GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2nd Estimate

German Unemployment Change (Feb)

German Unemployment Rate (Feb)

Italian CPI (MoM) (Feb) Prelim

German CPI (MoM) (Feb) Prelim

The Majors

It was another bearish day for the European majors on Tuesday, with market fear over the spread of the coronavirus doing the damage once more.

The CAC40 led the way, falling by 1.94%, with the DAX30 and EuroStoxx600 ending the day down by 1.88% and by 1.76% respectively.

Economic data continued to play second fiddle on the day as news of a further spread of the coronavirus raised the prospects of a global pandemic.

The Stats

It was a relatively quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar on Tuesday. Economic data included 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter out of Germany.

According to Destatis,

  • The German economy stalled in the 4th quarter, which was in line with 1st estimate numbers.

Compared with the previous quarter,

  • The growth of domestic final consumption expenditure slowed markedly.
  • Household final consumption expenditure stagnated in the 4th
  • General government final consumption expenditure rose by just 0.3%.
  • It was a mixed bag for fixed capital formation.
  • While gross fixed capital formation in construction increased by 0.6%, capital formation in machinery and equipment slid by 2%. Capital formation in other fixed assets was up by 1.1%.
  • Trade weighed on the economy in the 4th quarter, with exports down 0.2%, while imports of goods and services rose by 1.3%. It was the exports of goods, which fell by 0.4% that offset a rise in the exports of services (+0.4%).

Year-on-year, the economy grew by 0.3%, which was also in line with 1st estimates.

From the U.S, consumer confidence didn’t help, with the CB Consumer Confidence Index rising from 130.4 to 130.7. Economists had forecast an increase to 132.4.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: it was a bearish day for the auto sector on Tuesday. Continental led the way tumbling by 4.32%, with Volkswagen down by 2.25%. BMW and Daimler saw more modest losses of 1.44% and 1.42% respectively.

It was also a bearish day for the banks. Commerzbank slid by 5.84%, with Deutsche Bank down by 3.12%.

Deutsche Lufthansa also saw more red, sliding by 3.79% off the back of Monday’s 7.80% tumble.

From the CAC, it was a particularly bearish day for the banks. BNP Paribas slid by 4.88%, with Credit Agricole and Soc Gen falling by 3.62% and by 3.64% respectively.

The auto sector also continued to struggle. Renault fell by 2.87, with Peugeot ending the day down by 0.67%.

Air France-KLM fell by 3.28% following on from an 8.78% slide from Monday.

On the VIX Index

The VIX rose by 11.27% on Tuesday to market a 4th consecutive day in the green. Following on from a 46.55% surge on Monday, the VIX ended the day at 27.9.

A particularly bearish day drove the VIX to 30.0 levels for the first time since December 2018.

Market reaction to the continued spread of the coronavirus weighed heavily on the global equity markets, with the S&P500 sliding by 3.03%.

VIX 26/02/20 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s another relatively quiet day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar on Wednesday. Economic data includes jobseeker totals from France.

Barring particularly dire numbers, the majors are unlikely to respond to the numbers later this morning.

With stats from the U.S limited to new home sales figures, market sentiment towards the global economic outlook will likely limit any upside on the day.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak later in the day. Any monetary policy talk will influence, with the ECB likely to have material concerns over the spread of the coronavirus. The real question is what the ECB has to offer in terms of support. Certain members of the ECB will likely be reluctant to favor any further easing…

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the DAX was down by 150.5 points, while the Dow was up by 57 points.

Litecoin, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – 25/02/20

Litecoin

Litecoin slid by 5.31% on Monday. Partially reversing a 6.58% rally from Sunday, Litecoin ended the day at $75.55.

Bearish through the day, Litecoin slid from an early morning intraday high $80.04 to a late afternoon intraday low $71.80.

Litecoin fell through the first major support level at $76.08 and the second major support level at $72.37.

Of greater significance, however, was a fall through the 38.2% FIB of $78.

Finding support late on, Litecoin broke back through the second major support level to wrap up the day at $75.55.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 2.63% to $73.56. A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin fall from an early morning high $76.12 to a low $73.26.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTC/USD 25/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move through to $75.80 levels to support a run the first major resistance level at $79.79.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to breakout from the 38.2% FIB of $78.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the 38.2% FIB would likely leave Litecoin short of the first major resistance level.

Failure to move through to $75.80 levels could see Litecoin fall deeper into the red.

A fall back through the morning low $73.26 would bring the first major support level at $71.55 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$70 levels on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $71.55

Major Resistance Level: $79.79

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $62

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $78

62% FIB Retracement Level: $104

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen slid by 5.82% on Monday. Reversing a 4.42% gain from Sunday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the day at $0.069148.

Tracking the broader market, Stellar’s Lumen slid from an early morning intraday high $0.073827 to a late intraday low $0.067507.

Stellar’s Lumen fell through the first major support level at $0.07093 and the second major support level at $0.068450.

Finding support late on, Stellar’s Lumen moved back through the second major support level to wrap up the day at $0.069 levels.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down by 2.37% to $0.067509. A bearish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall from an early morning high $0.069264 to a low $0.067509.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLM/USD 25/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to move through to $0.07020 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.07281.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break out from the morning high $0.069264.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound, resistance at $0.070 would likely leave Stellar’s Lumen short of the first major resistance level.

Failure to move through to $0.07020 levels could see Stellar’s Lumen struggle later in the day.

A fall back through Monday’s low $0.067507 would bring the first major support level at $0.06649 into play.

Barring another crypto sell-off, however, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.0660 levels on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $0.06649

Major Resistance Level: $0.07281

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1051

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1433

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2050

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX slid by 6.94% on Monday. Reversing a 6.54% rally from Sunday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.019875.

A bearish start to the day saw Tron’s TRX slide from an early morning intraday high $0.021398 to a late afternoon intraday low $0.019200.

Tron’s TRX fell through the first major support level at $0.02053 and the second major support level at $0.01961.

Steering clear of sub-$0.019 support levels, Tron’s TRX broke back through the second major support level late on.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 0.73% to $0.019729. A bearish start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall from an early morning high $0.019921 to a low $0.019552.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRX/USD 25/02/20 Daily Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to move through to $0.02020 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.02112.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break out from the morning high $0.019921.

Barring an extended crypto rally, resistance at $0.020 would likely leave Tron’s TRX short of the first major resistance level.

Failure to move through to $0.02020 levels could see Tron’s TRX slide deeper into the red.

A fall back through the morning low $0.019552 would bring the first major support level at $0.01892 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should continue to steer clear of sub-$0.019 levels on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $0.01892

Major Resistance Level: $0.02112

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0322

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0452

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0663

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – 25/02/20

EOS

EOS tumbled by 6.10% on Monday. Partially reversing a 7.03% rally from the previous day, EOS ended the day at $4.1278.

A bearish start to the day saw EOS slide from an early morning intraday high $4.4124 to a late afternoon intraday low $3.9108.

EOS fell through the first major support level at $4.1910 and the second major support level at $3.9826.

Finding support late on, EOS moved back through the second major support level to wrap up the day at $4.1278.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 1.45% to $4.0678. A bearish start to the day saw EOS fall from an early morning high $4.1501 to a low $4.0394.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOS/USD 25/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to move back through to $4.15 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $4.3899.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break out from the early morning high $4.1501.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound, however, EOS would likely fall short of $4.30 levels on the day.

Failure to move back through to $4.15 levels could see EOS fall deeper into the red.

A fall back through the morning low $4.0394 would bring the first major support level at $3.8883 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, EOS should continue to steer well clear of sub-$3.80 levels.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $3.8883

Major Resistance Level: $4.3899

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.62

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.76

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.82

Ethereum

Ethereum fell 3.69% on Monday. Partially reversing a 5.17% gain from Sunday, Ethereum ended the day at $265.31.

A bullish start to the day saw Ethereum strike an early morning intraday high $278.13 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $280.89, Ethereum slid to a late afternoon intraday low $256.06.

Ethereum fell through the first major support level at $265.80 and the 23.6% FIB of $257.

Finding support at the second major support level at $256.12, Ethereum moved back through the 23.6% FIB.

The first major support level at $265.80 limited Ethereum’s recovery late in the day, however.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 1.49% to $261.35. A bearish start to the day saw Ethereum fall from an early morning high $266.24 to a low $260.62.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETH/USD 25/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to move through to $266.50 levels to bring the first major resistance level at $276.94 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $270 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound, resistance at $270 would likely cap any upside.

Failure to move through to $266.50 levels could see Ethereum fall deeper into the red.

A fall through back through the morning low $260.62 would bring 23.6% FIB of $257.00 into play.

Barring a broad-based crypto sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$250 support levels.

The first major support level at $254.87 should limit any downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $254.87

Major Resistance Level: $276.94

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP slid by 4.65% on Monday. Reversing a 3.12% gain from Sunday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.27078.

Tracking the broader market, Ripple’s XRP slid from an early morning intraday high $0.28578 to a late afternoon intraday low $0.26411.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the first major support level at $0.2776 and the second major support level at $0.2712.

Finding support late in the day, Ripple’s XRP broke back through the second major support level.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.99% to $0.26810. A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall from an early morning high $0.27124 to a low $0.26705.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRP/USD 25/02/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to break back through to $0.2740 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.2830.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break through to $0.28 levels.

Barring a crypto rebound, resistance at $0.28 would likely leave Ripple’s XRP short of the first major resistance level.

Failure to move back through to $0.2740 levels could see Ripple’s XRP struggle throughout the day.

A fall back through the morning low $0.26705 would bring the first major support level at $0.2613 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.26 levels on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $0.2613

Major Resistance Level: $0.2830

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob