EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – October 20th, 2020

EOS

EOS rose by 1.35% on Monday. Following on from a 1.06% gain on Sunday, EOS ended the day at $2.5834.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall an early morning intraday low $2.5239 before making a move.

EOS fell through the first major support level at $2.5246 before rallying to a late afternoon intraday high $2.6151.

The rally saw EOS break through the first major resistance level at $2.5676 and the second major resistance level at $2.5859.

A late pullback, however, saw EOS fall back through the second major resistance level to end the day at sub-$2.5850 levels.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 0.32% to $2.5751. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $2.5871 before falling to a low $2.5684.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOS/USD 20/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid a fall back through the $2.5741 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2.6244.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break out from Monday’s high $2.6151.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the pivot level at $2.5741 would bring the first major support level at $2.5332 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer of sub-$2.50 and the second major support level at $2.4829.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2.5332

First Major resistance Level: $2.6244

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen rallied by 7.19% on Monday. Reversing a 2.53% slide from Sunday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the day at $0.08518.

It was a bullish start to the day. Stellar’s Lumen rallied from an early morning intraday low $0.07939 to an early afternoon intraday high $0.08747.

The rally saw Stellar’s Lumen break through the day’s major resistance levels before an afternoon pullback.

Stellar’s Lumen fell back through the third major resistance level at $0.08629 to wrap up the day at $0.085 levels.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down by 0.34% to $0.084888. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning high $0.085321 before falling to a low $0.084087.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLM/USD 20/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to avoid a fall through the $0.08401 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.08864.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break out from Monday’s high $0.08747.

Barring another broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.08401 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $0.08056 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Stellar’s Lumen should continue to steer clear of sub-$0.080 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.07593.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.08056

First Major Resistance Level: $0.08864

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.09280

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1333

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1989

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX slipped by 0.12% on Monday. Partially reversing a 0.47% gain from Sunday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.025999.

A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning intraday low $0.025509 before making a move.

Tron’s TRX fell the first major support level at $0.02550 before striking an early afternoon intraday high $0.026296.

Tron’s TRX broke through the first major resistance level at $0.02621 before sliding back to sub-$0.02580 levels,

Finding late support, Tron’s TRX moved back through to $0.0259 levels to limit the loss on the day.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 0.86% to $0.025775. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning high $0.02599 before falling to a low $0.02558.

Tron’s TRX left the first major support level at $0.02557 early on.

TRX/USD 20/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to move through the $0.02593 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.02636.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break out from Monday’s high $0.026296.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to move through the $0.02593 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $0.02557 back into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of sub-$0.025 levels. The second major support level at $0.02515 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.02557

First Major Resistance Level: $0.02636

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0291

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0428

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0648

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

A Quiet Economic Calendar Leaves U.S Politics, COVID-19, and Brexit in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and Aussie Dollar were in action early on, with the PBoC also in the spotlight.

Away from the economic calendar, the markets also responded to the lack of progress on Capitol Hill.

For the Kiwi Dollar

In the 3rd quarter, the NZIER Business Confidence

According to the NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion,

  • A net 40% of firms expect business conditions to deteriorate in the 3rd quarter, compared with 63% in the previous quarter.
  • The building sector was the most confident, with a net 7% of firms expecting an improvement in the economy near-term.
  • Other sectors were more cautious. While manufacturers were less pessimistic, the service sector was the most pessimistic. A net 49% of services firms expect a worsening in general economic conditions in the coming months.
  • Uncertainty continues to plague the services sector after the adverse effects of lockdown and border restrictions.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.66047 to $0.66027 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.30% to $0.6586.

For the Aussie Dollar

The RBA monetary policy meeting minutes drew interest early this morning.

Salient points from the minutes included:

  • Members observed that the global economy was recovering but that most economies were still some way off pre-pandemic output levels.
  • The continuation of the recovery was dependent upon the containment of the virus.
  • China’s economic recovery was the most advanced, while globally, inflation remained very low and below central bank targets.

Domestically,

  • While Australia saw its largest economic contraction since the 1930s, members noted that the decline in output had been smaller than expected.
  • Labour market conditions had improved, with the unemployment rate likely to peak at a lower rate than previously expected.
  • The RBA expects both unemployment and underemployment to remain high for an extended period of time.
  • Members considered that the economy would need fiscal and monetary support for some time.
  • Members also noted that the effects of monetary policy easing had been impaired as a result of restrictions on activity in parts of the economy.
  • As the economy opens up, however, members considered it reasonable to expect further monetary policy easing to gain more traction.
  • The Board also considered the nature of the forward guidance regarding the cash rate. Given the higher level of uncertainty about inflation dynamics, the Board agreed to place more weight on actual, not forecast, inflation for its decision-making.
  • Members also indicated that they would like to see more than just progress towards full employment before considering an increase in the cash rate.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.70559 to $0.70582 upon release of the minutes. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.44% to $0.7043.

Out of China

The markets are expecting that the PBoC will leave Loan Prime Rates unchanged this morning. Currently, the 1-year LPR sits at 3.85%, with the 5-year at 4.65%.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.10% ¥105.54 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Wholesale inflation figures for September are due out of Germany.

We don’t expect too much influence on the EUR, however, with COVID-19 numbers and any Brexit chatter in focus.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.1771.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave any further chatter on Brexit and updates on COVID-19 in focus.

While Downing Street announced an end to negotiations, the markets are expecting talks to resume. Boris Johnson left the door open for further talks, though it remains to be seen whether the EU will compromise…

At the time of writing, the Pound was flat at $1.2948.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar.

September building permits and housing starts are due out later this afternoon.

Barring particularly dire numbers, we would expect the markets to brush aside the numbers.

The focus will be on the U.S Presidential Election polls, the Senate polls, and chatter from Capitol Hill.

Expect updates on COVID-19 to also influence on the day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to 93.404.

For the Loonie

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead. There are no key stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of COVID-19 and U.S politics on the day. A continued rise in new COVID-19 cases will continue to test support for the Loonie.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.02% to C$1.3190 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

European Equities: Capitol Hill, COVID-19, and Brexit Remain Key Areas of Focus

Economic Calendar:

Tuesday, 20th October

German PPI (MoM) (Sep)

Thursday, 22nd October

GfK German Consumer Climate (Nov)

Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash

Friday, 23rd October

French Manufacturing PMI (Oct) Prelim

French Services PMI (Oct) Prelim

German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) Prelim

German Services PMI (Oct) Prelim

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Oct) Prelim

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Oct) Prelim

Eurozone Services PMI (Oct) Prelim

The Majors

It was a bearish start to the week for the European majors on Monday. The DAX30 fell by 0.42%, with the CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 seeing losses of 0.13% and 0.18% respectively.

A lack of economic data from the Eurozone left Brexit, COVID-19, and updates from Capitol Hill in focus on the day.

While hopes of a COVID-19 Stimulus package had provided early support, concerns over COVID-19 and Brexit weighed.

A reintroduction of lockdown measures in Europe raised concerns over the economic outlook, as did Brexit.

Following the British PM’s decision to end negotiations, the EU had yet to deliver a meaningful compromise in response to Johnson’s announcement. Downing Street had left the door ajar for further talks but not if the EU’s stance remained unchanged.

The Stats

It was a particularly quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar. There were no material stats from the Eurozone to provide the majors with direction on Monday.

Ahead of the European open, economic data from China had provided the European majors some support going into the open.

The stats from China reflected the continued economic recovery from the COVID-19 shutdown, though GDP numbers fell short of forecasts.

From the U.S

It was also a particularly quiet day on the economic calendar, with no stats from the U.S to influence.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a mixed day for the auto sector on Monday. Continental bucked the trend, rising by 0.48%, while Daimler slid by 2.32% to lead the way down. BMW and Volkswagen saw modest losses of 0.03% and 0.06% respectively.

It was a bullish day for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank rose by 0.38%, with Commerzbank rallying by 1.99%

From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole rose by 1.23% and by 0.60% respectively. Soc Gen led the way once more, however, with a 1.96% gain.

It was a mixed day for the French auto sector, with Peugeot rising by 0.16%, while Renault slipped by 0.25%.

Air France-KLM rallied by 7.36%, with Airbus SE gaining by 2.14%.

On the VIX Index

It was a 6th consecutive day in the green for the VIX. Following a 1.63% gain on Friday, the VIX rose by 6.46% on Monday to end the day at 29.18.

Hopes of a stimulus deal, following chatter from the weekend, faded on the day, sending the U.S majors into the red.

The Dow and S&P500 fell by 1.44% and by 1.65% respectively, with the NASDAQ ending the day down by 1.65%.

VIX 20/10/20 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar. German wholesale inflation figures for September are due out going into the European open.

The numbers are unlikely to influence, however, with COVID-19, geopolitics, and PBoC monetary policy in focus.

From the U.S, economic data is limited to housing sector figures for September. We would expect the markets to brush aside the numbers, with all eyes on Capitol Hill.

Democrat Nancy Pelosi had set a Tuesday deadline to reach a stimulus agreement before the Presidential Election. Negative sentiment towards the chances of a stimulus package weighed on the U.S majors on Monday. We can expect the European majors to come under pressure early on.

Ahead of the European, the PBoC is in action. The markets are expecting the PBoC to leave loan prime rates unchanged. Economic data from Monday supported a hold on monetary policy.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow was up by 158 points, while the DAX was down by 33.5 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – October 20th, 2020

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 0.21% on Monday. Following on from a 2.74% rally on Sunday, Ethereum ended the day at $379.36.

It was a bearish start to the day. Ethereum fell to an early morning intraday low $372.89 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $371.03, Ethereum rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $384.69.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $382.41 before a pullback to $376 levels and into the red.

Finding late support, however, Ethereum moved back through to $379 levels to end the day in the green.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.09% to $379.00.  A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $379.65 before falling to a low $379.00.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETH/USD 20/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the $378.98 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $385.07.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Monday’s high $384.69.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test the second major resistance level at $390.78 before any pullback.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $378.98 pivot would bring the first major support level at $373.27 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of the 38.2% FIB of $367 and the second major support level at $367.18.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $373.27

Pivot Level: $378.98

First Major Resistance Level: $385.07

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 0.92% on Monday. Following on from a 1.39% gain on Sunday, Litecoin ended the day at $48.02.

Tracking the broader market, Litecoin slid to an early morning intraday low $46.60 before making a move.

The pullback saw Litecoin fall through the first major support level at $46.93 before striking a mid-afternoon intraday high $48.48.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $48.10 before easing back to sub-$48 levels.

Finding late support, however, Litecoin broke back through the first major resistance level before wrapping up the day at $48.02.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.21% to $47.92. A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin fall from an early morning high $48.02 to a low $47.85.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTC/USD 20/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $47.70 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $48.80.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Monday’s high $48.48.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $49 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Litecoin would likely test resistance at $50 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $49.58.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $47.70 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $46.92 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, however, Litecoin should steer well clear of the second major support level at $45.82.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $46.92

Pivot Level: $47.70

First Major Resistance Level: $48.80

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $45.30

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $71

62% FIB Retracement Level: $100

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rallied by 1.42% on Monday. Following on from a 0.63% rise on Sunday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.24574.

A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning intraday low $0.24035 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2406, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $0.24968.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the day’s major resistance levels before falling back to sub-$0.246 levels.

The pullback saw Ripple’s XRP fall back through the third major resistance level at $0.2480.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.08% to $0.24555. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.24604 before falling to a low $0.24555.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRP/USD 20/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall through the $0.2453 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.2502.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Monday’s high $0.24968.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, the second major resistance level at $0.2546 would likely come into play. Resistance at $0.26 would likely cap any upside, however.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.2453 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.24080 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.24 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2359.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2408

Pivot Level: $0.2453

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2502

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Riskier Assets Find Support, with China Stats, COVID-19, and U.S Politics in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a particularly busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen was in action early on, with economic data from China also in focus. Away from the economic calendar, U.S politics and COVID-19 were also in focus.

Positive chatter from Capitol Hill and hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine supported riskier assets early on.

Nancy Pelosi raised hope of a pre-Election Stimulus Bill over the weekend, while also setting a deadline for talks.

At the end of last week, U.S Pharma Phizer talked of having a COVID-19 vaccine ready before the end of the year.

For the Japanese Yen

Japan’s trade surplus widened from ¥248.6bn to ¥675.0bn in September. Economists had forecast a widening to ¥989.8bn.

According to figures released by the  Ministry of Finance,

  • Exports fell by 4.9% when compared with September 2019.
    • Exports to China jumped by 14.0%, while down by 2.0% to Asia.
    • Exports to the U.S rose by just 0.7%, while exports to Western Europe fell by 6.4%.
  • Imports tumbled by 17.2% when compared with September 2019.
    • Imports from China slid by 11.9% while falling by 12.6% from Asia.
    • From the U.S, imports fell by 9.9%, with imports from Western Europe sliding by 14.4%.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥105.426 to ¥105.443 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.01% ¥105.41 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

3rd quarter GDP, fixed asset investment, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment figures were in focus this morning.

In the 3rd quarter, China’s economy grew by 2.7%, quarter-on-quarter, following 11.5% growth in the 2nd quarter. Year-on-year, the economy expanded by 4.9%, following 3.2% growth in the 2nd quarter. Economists had forecasted growth of 3.2% and 5.2% respectively.

Industrial production increased by 6.9%, year-on-year, in September, following a 5.6% rise in August. Economists had forecast a 5.8% increase.

Retail sales increased by 3.3%, following a 0.5% increase in August. Economists had forecast a 1.8% rise.

The unemployment rate declined from 5.6% to 5.4% in September, which was better than a forecasted decline to 5.5%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71031 to $0.70961 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.27% to $0.7100.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.30% to $0.6622.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.

A lack of stats leaves the EUR in the hands of COVID-19 and any further chatter on Brexit.

With lockdown measures being introduced in Europe, any further steps to contain the virus will test EUR support.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.05% to $1.1712.

For the Pound

It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.

A lack of stats will leave the markets to react to any Brexit chatter and COVID-19 news.

Further COVID-19 restrictions are expected on Monday, which would be Pound negative.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.10% to $1.2928.

Across the Pond

It’s a quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar.

With no material stats due out of the U.S, the focus will be on Capitol Hill and the U.S elections.

The markets are looking for a clean sweep, which will bring the Senate elections into focus. As Biden leads Trump in the Presidential Election polls, the Democrats will need to stay ahead in the senate polls to support riskier assets.

On Capitol Hill, any hint of progress towards a COVID-19 stimulus Bill would also support riskier assets on the day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.02% to 93.697.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead. Key stats due out of Canada include August wholesale sales figures.

We don’t expect too much influence on the Loonie, however. COVID-19 news updates and market sentiment towards the economic outlook and demand for crude will remain the key drivers.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.09% to C$1.3177 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin and Ripple’s XRP – Weekly Technical Analysis – October 19th, 2020

Bitcoin

Bitcoin rose by 1.18% in the week ending 18th October. Following a 6.53% gain from the week prior, Bitcoin ended the week at $11,518.0.

It was a choppy start to the week. Bitcoin fell to a Monday intraweek low $11,111.0 before finding support.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,782, Bitcoin bounced back to a Monday intraweek high $11,740.0.

Coming up against the first major resistance level at $11,746, Bitcoin fell back to $11,210 levels and into the red on Friday.

A relatively bullish end to the week, coming off the back of 2 consecutive days in the green delivered the upside for the week.

4 days in the green that included a 1.54% gain on Monday delivered the upside for the week. A 1.60% slide on Friday, limited the upside for the week, however.

For the week ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through $11,456 pivot to support a run the first major resistance level at $11,802.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from last week’s high $11.740.0.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and last week’s high $11,740.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Bitcoin could test resistance at $12,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $12,085.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $11,456 pivot would bring the first major support level at $11,173 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$11,000 support levels. The second major support level sits at $10,827

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.31% to $11,482.0. A mixed start to the week saw Bitcoin hit an early Monday morning high $11,550.0 before falling to a low $11,459.1.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

BTC/USD 19/10/20 Daily Chart

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP slid by 5.21% in the week ending 18th October. Reversing a 3.07% gain from the previous week, Ripple’s XRP ended the week at $0.24216.

It was a mixed start to the week. Ripple’s XRP rose to a Tuesday intraweek high $0.25998 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.2638, Ripple’s XRP slid to a Friday intraweek low $0.23783 and into the deep red.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the first major support level at $0.2438 before finding support through the weekend.

In spite of 2 consecutive days in the green, however, Ripple’s XRP failed to break back through the first major support level.

3-days in the red that included a 2.89% slide on Tuesday and a 2.36% fall on Friday delivered the downside for the week.

For the week ahead

Ripple’s XRP would need to move through the $0.2467 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.2555.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $0.2550 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and last week’s high $0.25998 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $0.26 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.2688.

Failure to move through the $0.2467 would bring the first major support level at $0.2333 into play.

Barring an extended crypto market sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear well clear of sub-$0.23 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2245.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.01% to $0.24214. A mixed start to the week saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early Monday morning high $0.24281 before falling to a low $0.24203.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

XRP/USD 19/10/20 Daily Chart

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – October 19th, 2020

EOS

EOS rose by 1.06% on Sunday. Reversing a 0.69% loss from Saturday, EOS ended the week down by 4.12% to $2.5494.

It was a bullish start to the day. EOS rose from an early morning intraday low $2.5181 to an early afternoon intraday high $2.5611.

EOS broke through the first major resistance level at $2.5571 before falling back to sub-$2.54 levels.

Avoiding sub-$2.52 levels and the red, EOS move back through to $2.55 levels before wrapping up the week at $2.54 levels.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 0.51% to $2.5363. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $2.5588 before falling to a low $2.5296.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOS/USD 19/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to move back through the $2.5429 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2.5676.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break out from Sunday’s high $2.5611.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to move back through the pivot level at $2.5429 would bring the first major support level at $2.5246 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer of sub-$2.50 and the second major support level at $2.4999.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2.5246

First Major resistance Level: $2.5676

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen fell by 2.53% on Sunday. Partially reversing a 2.92% gain from Saturday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the week up by 2.93% to $0.07947.

A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning intraday high $0.08219 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.08474, Stellar’s Lumen slid to a late intraday low $0.079185.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.07805, Stellar’s Lumen moved back through to $0.07940 levels to limit the loss.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was up by 0.83% to $0.080127. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to an early morning low $0.079387 before rising to a high $0.080127.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLM/USD 19/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to avoid a fall through the $0.08028 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.08138.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break back through to $0.081 levels.

Barring another broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.08028 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $0.07837 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.078 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.07728.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.07837

First Major Resistance Level: $0.08138

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.09280

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1333

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1989

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX rose by 0.47% on Sunday. Following on from a 0.31% gain on Saturday, Tron’s TRX ended the week down by 2.19% to $0.02592.

A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning intraday low $0.02555 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.02534, Tron’s TRX struck a mid-morning intraday high $0.02617.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.02626, Tron’s TRX fell back to sub-$0.026 levels.

A choppy 2nd half of the day saw resistance at $0.026 pin Tron’s TRX back on the day.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 0.76% to $0.02572. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning high $0.02611 before falling to a low $0.02572.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRX/USD 19/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to move through the $0.02588 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.02621.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break back through to $0.026 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $0.02617 would likely cap any upside.

Failure to move through the $0.02588 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $0.02559 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of sub-$0.025 levels. The second major support level at $0.02526 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.02559

First Major Resistance Level: $0.02621

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0291

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0428

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0648

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

European Equities: China Stats, COVID-19, and Geopolitics in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Tuesday, 20th October

German PPI (MoM) (Sep)

Thursday, 22nd October

GfK German Consumer Climate (Nov)

Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash

Friday, 23rd October

French Manufacturing PMI (Oct) Prelim

French Services PMI (Oct) Prelim

German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) Prelim

German Services PMI (Oct) Prelim

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Oct) Prelim

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Oct) Prelim

Eurozone Services PMI (Oct) Prelim

The Majors

It was a bullish end to the week for the European majors on Friday. The CAC40 rallied by 2.03%, with the DAX30 and EuroStoxx600 seeing gains of 1.62% and 1.26% respectively.

Corporate earnings gave the European majors a much-needed boost on Friday to reverse most of Thursday’s losses.

Impressive earnings results for Daimler and LVMH contributed to the upside on the day.

The upside on the day came in spite of the continued spike in new COVID-19 cases, Brexit woes, and a lack of progress on Capitol Hill.

On Friday, Boris Johnson announced that trade talks with the EU are over following a failure to find common ground at the EU Summit.

From the U.S, lawmakers failed to agree on a COVID-19 stimulus bill, with the chances of a pre-election stimulus bill diminishing by the day.

Of greater immediate significance to the Eurozone’s economic recovery is the upward trend in new COVID-19 cases.

In France alone, more than 30,000 new cases had been reported in a single day as the government began reintroducing lockdown measures. As a result of the latest spike, the WHO warned that COVID-19 deaths could be 5 times higher than in April. The WHO’s projections come in response to the impact of governments easing containment measures in the summer.

The Stats

It was a relatively quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats included Eurozone trade data and finalized September inflation figures.

The Eurozone’s trade surplus narrowed from €27.9bn to €14.7bn.

According to Eurostat,

  • Exports of goods to the rest of the world fell by 12.2%, compared with August 2019, to €156.3bn.
  • Imports from the rest of the world fell by 13.5%, compared with August 2019, to €141.6bn.
  • In August 2019, the trade surplus had stood at €14.4bn.
  • For the period January to August 2020, exports to the rest of the world fell by 12.4%, with imports down by 13.1%.
  • Intra-euro area trade fell by 12.3% when compared with the same period in 2019.

Inflation figures for the Eurozone also failed to impress at the end of the week, with annual inflation down by 0.3% in September. In August, annual inflation had been down by 0.2%.

According to Eurostat,

  • Greece (-2.3%), Cyprus (-1.9%), and Estonia (-1.3%) had the lowest annual rates of inflation.
  • The highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation came from food, alcohol, & tobacco (+0.34 pp) and services (+0.24pp).

From the U.S

It was a busier day on the economic calendar. Key stats included October consumer sentiment figures and September retail sales and industrial production figures.

In September, core retail sales rose by 1.5%, with retail sales jumping by 1.9%. Economists had forecast increases of 0.5% and 0.7% respectively.

Consumer sentiment also improved in October, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rising from 80.4 to 81.2. The improved sentiment came in spite of the dire labor market conditions.

Concerns over slowing employment growth, a jump in COVID-19 infections, and the absence of federal relief payments weighed on sentiment towards current conditions.

The Michigan Consumer Current Conditions Index, fell while the Expectations Index rose from 75.6 to 78.8, leading to the pickup in consumer sentiment.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Friday. Daimler jumped by 4.63%, supported by impressive earnings results. Continental and Volkswagen saw gains of  2.51% and 2.17% respectively. BMW trailed, with a 1.60% rise.

It was a mixed day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rose by 2.01%, while Commerzbank fell by 1.26%

From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole rose by 1.71% and by 1.32% respectively. Soc Gen led the way, however, rising by 1.96%.

It was a much better day for the French auto sector, with Peugeot and Renault seeing gains of 5.49% and 5.18% respectively.

Air France-KLM reversed Thursday’s 1.90% loss, with a 1.97% gain, with Airbus SE rallying by 4.13%.

On the VIX Index

It was a 5th consecutive day in the green for the VIX. Following a 2.16% gain on Thursday, the VIX rose by 1.63% to end the day at 27.41.

The Dow and S&P500 rose by 0.39% and by 0.01% respectively, while the NASDAQ ending the day down by 0.36%.

VIX 19/10/20 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a particularly quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the majors with direction.

The lack of stats will leave updates on COVID-19 and Brexit to influence.

From the U.S, there are also no material stats to provide direction late in the session. A lack of stats will leave the majors in the hands of chatter from Capitol Hill and the latest election polls.

Ahead of the European, 3rd quarter GDP figures from China will also set the tone.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow was up by 131 points, with the DAX up by 15.5 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – October 19th, 2020

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by 1.25% on Sunday. Following on from a 0.44% gain on Saturday, Bitcoin ended the week up by 1.18% to $11,518.0.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning intraday low $11,364.9 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $11,294, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high $11,520.0.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $11,437 and the second major resistance at $11,499.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Sunday.

Crypto.com Coin slid by 9.12% to buck the trend on the day.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Chainlink (+2.88%), Ethereum (+2.74%), and Polkadot (+2.00%) led the way.

Binance Coin (+1.52%), Cardano’s ADA (+1.49%), and Litecoin (+1.39%) also found strong support.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.57%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+0.80%), and Ripple’s XRP (+0.63%) trailed the front runners on the day.

It was also a mixed week for the crypto majors in the week ending 18th October.

Crypto.com Coin slumped by 21.56% to lead the way down.

Bitcoin Cash SV (-6.73%), Litecoin (-5.73%), Polkadot (-4.29%), and Ripple’s XRP (-5.21%) also saw red.

Binance Coin (+7.57%), Bitcoin Cash ABC (+3.71%), Cardano’s ADA (+0.87%), Chainlink (+0.75%), and Ethereum (+1.12%) joined Bitcoin in the green, however.

For the week, the crypto total market rose to a Monday high $365.23bn before falling to a Friday low $343.10. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $353.28bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 59.47% before rising to a Friday high 60.45%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 60.18%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.31% to $11,482.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $11,550.0 before falling to a low $11,479.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day for the crypto majors.

Bitcoin Cash SV and Ripple’s XRP were up by 0.01% and by 0.06% respectively to buck the trend early on.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Crypto.com Coin was down by 1.23% to lead the way down.

BTC/USD 19/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $11,468 to bring the first major resistance level at $11,570 back into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from the morning high $11,550.0.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another crypto breakout, Bitcoin could test the second major resistance level sits at $11,623.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $11,468 pivot would bring the first major support level at $11,415 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$11,400 support levels. The second major support level sits at $11,313.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – October 19th, 2020

Ethereum

Ethereum rallied by 2.74% on Sunday. Following on from a 0.8% gain on Saturday, Ethereum ended the week up by 1.12% to $378.58

It was a bullish end to the week. Ethereum rallied from an early morning intraday low $367.31 to a final hour intraday high $378.69.

The day-long rally saw Ethereum break through the first major resistance level at $371.51 and the second major resistance level at $374.55.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.11% to $378.16. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $379.94 before falling to a low $378.01.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETH/USD 19/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the $374.86 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $382.41.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break through to $380 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test the second major resistance level at $386.24 before any pullback.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $374.86 pivot would bring the first major support level at $371.03 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of the 38.2% FIB of $367. The second major support level sits at $363.48.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $371.03

Pivot Level: $374.86

First Major Resistance Level: $382.41

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 1.39% on Sunday. Partially reversing a 1.49% loss from Saturday, Litecoin ended the week down by 5.73% to $47.58.

It was a relatively bullish start to the day. Litecoin rise from an early morning intraday low $46.81 to an early afternoon intraday high $47.98.

The morning rally saw Litecoin break through the first major resistance level at $47.62 before easing back.

Litecoin fell back to a 2nd half low $47.27 before wrapping up the day at $47.5 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.23% to $47.47. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $47.67 before falling to a low $47.47.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTC/USD 19/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $47.46 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $48.10.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break back through to $48 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $47.98 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Litecoin would likely test resistance at $49 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $48.63.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $47.46 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $46.93 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, however, Litecoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $46.29.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $46.93

Pivot Level: $47.46

First Major Resistance Level: $48.1

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $45.30

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $71

62% FIB Retracement Level: $100

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 0.63% on Sunday. Following on from a 0.17% gain on Saturday, Ripple’s XRP ended the week down by 5.21% to $0.24216.

A bullish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise from an early morning intraday low $0.24040 to an early afternoon intraday high $0.24342.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the first major resistance level at $0.2428 before falling back to sub-$0.2425 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.27% to $0.24281. A bullish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise from an early morning low $0.24229 to a high $0.24281.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRP/USD 19/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall through the $0.2420 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.2436.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Sunday’s high $0.24342.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, the second major resistance level at $0.2450 would likely come into play.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.2420 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2406 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.2350 levels. The second major support level at $0.2390 should limit any downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2406

Pivot Level: $0.2420

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2436

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

The Week Ahead – U.S Politics, COVID-19, Brexit, and Private Sector PMIs in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 57 stats in focus in the week ending 23rd October. In the week prior, 56 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic data front.

On Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, housing sector figures for September are in focus.

With mortgage rates hovering close to historic lows, the numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the Dollar.

On Thursday, however, U.S jobless claims figures will influence ahead of private sector PMIs on Friday.

October’s prelim services, manufacturing, and composite PMIs are due out at the end of the week.

Expect the Services PMI to be the key driver. The markets will be looking for a pickup in service sector activity…

Away from the economic calendar, we are just over 2-weeks away from the U.S Presidential Election. Wednesday’s final live televised Presidential debate will garner plenty of attention as will chatter from Capitol Hill. We can also expect increased interest in the Senate Election polls.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up by 0.67% to 93.682.

For the EUR:

It’s also a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.

On Tuesday, German wholesale inflation figures are due out ahead of a busier 2nd half of the week.

On Thursday, Germany is back in focus, with November consumer climate figures due out.

Prelim October private sector PMIs from France, Germany, and the Eurozone will be the key drivers on Friday, however.

We can expect plenty of sensitivity to the numbers. A new spike in new COVID-19 cases in France and other parts of the EU may have impacted activity at the start of the quarter.

Away from the economic calendar, Brexit and COVID-19 will need monitoring throughout the week.

The EUR/USD ended the week down by 0.91% to $1.1718.

For the Pound:

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

The markets will have to wait until Wednesday, however, for the first set of numbers.

Inflation figures for September are due out ahead of CBI industrial trend orders on Thursday.

We would expect the Pound to be sensitive to the inflation figures ahead of a busy end to the week.

On Friday, retail sales figures for September and prelim October private sector PMIs will provide direction.

With the BoE open to negative rates, dire numbers will test support for the Pound.

Of greater influence in the week, however, will be Brexit and COVID-19 news.

The GBP/USD ended the week down by 0.93% to $1.2915.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

At the start of the week, wholesale sales figures for August are in focus on Monday.

We don’t expect too much influence from the numbers, however.

On Wednesday, September inflation and August retail sales figures will provide direction.

From elsewhere, expect GDP numbers from China and prelim private sector PMIs from the Eurozone and the U.S to also influence.

Away from the economic calendar, risk appetite will likely be dictated by COVID-19 and the U.S Presidential Election polls. There’s also the final presidential debate to consider on Wednesday.

The Loonie ended the week down by 0.52% to C$1.3189 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no material stats due out of Australia to provide the Aussie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Aussie Dollar firmly in the hands of market risk sentiment in the week.

Expect China’s GDP numbers and prelim PMIs from the Eurozone and the U.S to influence

On the monetary policy front, the RBA meeting minutes at the start of the week will garner interest. There has been the talk of an RBA move next month, the minutes could reveal what is on the cards…

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 2.20% to $0.7081.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s also a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

In the 1st half of the week, 3rd quarter business confidence figures are due out. A pickup in confidence would provide support to the Kiwi ahead of a busy Friday.

Trade data for May and 3rd quarter inflation figures will influence at the end of the week.

While the stats will provide direction, however, economic data from China and COVID-19 will likely be the key drivers.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 0.96% to $0.6602.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar.

Trade data for September will draw interest at the start of the week ahead of inflation at the end of the week.

We don’t expect the numbers to have too much influence on the Yen, however.

The key driver for the Japanese Yen, however, will be COVID-19 news and U.S politics.

The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.21% to ¥105.40 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic data front.

3rd quarter GDP numbers due out on Monday will be the key driver for the Yuan and market risk sentiment.

September’s industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment figures will also influence.

Barring particularly dire numbers, the fixed asset investment numbers should have a muted impact.

On the monetary policy front, the PBoC is in action on Tuesday. The markets are expecting the PBoC to leave loan prime rates unchanged. Any unexpected rate cut could spook the markets…

The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.04% to CNY6.6976 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

UK Politics:

On Friday, Boris Johnson announced that Brexit negotiations were over. Downing Street added the EU chief negotiator Barnier does not need to return to London in the week ahead.

Following the EU’s attempts to leave the ball in Britain’s court, with Fisheries a key issue, it now rests with the EU to compromise. Johnson has been clear that it would not leave fishing access unchanged, despite Macron’s attempts to strong-arm Britain into yielding.

For French fishermen, it would ultimately mean no access to UK fisheries should Britain leave without a deal…

Also at the start of the week, the British Prime Minister is due to announce more containment measures. With the number of new COVID-19 cases continuing to rise, further restrictions would be Pound negative.

U.S Politics

After last week’s individual town hall sessions, the final live televised debate will take place on Wednesday.

It will be a chance for Trump to narrow the gap ahead of the 3rd November Election.

If past performance is any indicator of future performance, however, it could just give Biden a greater edge.

As the markets begin to write-off a Trump victory, the focus will likely shift to the Senate Elections.

A blue wave is expected that would support further stimulus in the New Year.

U.S Mortgage Rates Slide to another All-Time Low

Mortgage rates fell to another all-time low in the week ending 15th October. Following a 1 basis point fall in the week prior, the 30-year fixed rate fell by 6 basis points to 2.81%.

Compared to this time last year, 30-year fixed rates were down by 88 basis points.

30-year fixed rates were also down by 213 basis points since November 2018’s most recent peak of 4.94%.

Economic Data from the Week

Economic data was on the lighter side in the 1st half of the week.

Key stats included September’s inflation figures ahead of the jobless claims figures on Thursday.

Inflation held steady at the end of the 3rd quarter, with the annual core rate of inflation unchanged at 1.7%. Economists had forecast a pickup to 1.8%.

Consumer prices saw modest increases in the month of September, however. Core consumer prices and consumer prices increased by just 0.2% following 0.4% increases in August.

Wholesale prices saw a pickup. The producer price index rose by 0.4% in September, following a 0.3% increase in August. Core wholesale prices also rose by 0.4%, following a 0.4% increase from the month prior.

While the stats were mixed, a lack of progress towards a stimulus Bill on Capitol Hill and COVID-19 weighed on Treasury yields.

Freddie Mac Rates

The weekly average rates for new mortgages as of 15th October were quoted by Freddie Mac to be:

  • 30-year fixed rates decreased by 6 basis points to 2.81% in the week. Rates were down from 3.69% a year ago. The average fee fell from 0.8 points to 0.6 points.
  • 15-year fixed rates fell by 2 basis points to 2.35% in the week. Rates were down from 3.15% a year ago. The average fee fell from 0.7 points to 0.5 points.
  • 5-year fixed rates rose by 1 basis point to 2.90% in the week. Rates were down by 45 points from last year’s 3.35%. The average fee also remained unchanged at 0.2 points.

According to Freddie Mac,

  • Many people are benefitting from a 10th record low this year, with refinance activity remaining strong.
  • It is worth noting, however, that not all people are able to take advantage of low rates given the effects of the pandemic.

Mortgage Bankers’ Association Rates

For the week ending 9th October, rates were quoted to be:

  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed, backed by the FHA, remained unchanged at 3.12%. Points increased from 0.32 to 0.35 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed with conforming loan balances decreased from 3.01% to 3.00%. Points fell from 0.37 to 0.32 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances decreased from 3.31% to 3.30%. Points increased from 0.30 to 0.35 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

Weekly figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, which is a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased by 0.7% in the week ending 9th October. In the week prior, the index had increased by 4.6%.

The Refinance Index slipped by 0.3% and was 44% higher than the same week a year ago. In the week prior, the index had jumped by 8%.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased from 65.4% to 65.6%. In the week prior, the share had risen from 63.3% to 65.4%.

According to the MBA,

  • Mortgage applications for refinances and home purchases both decreased slightly despite 30-year fixed rates falling to a new MBA survey low.
  • Applications for government mortgages offset some of the overall declines by increasing 3%.
  • Refinance and purchase activity continues to run well ahead of last year’s pace, fueled by record-low rates and strong homebuyer demand.
  • House supply is a challenge for many aspiring buyers. Buying activity should continue to stay strong for the rest of the year, however.

For the week ahead

It’s a quiet 1st half of the week on the U.S economic calendar.

Key stats include September building permits and housing start figures from the U.S.

We would expect the numbers to have a muted impact on U.S Treasury yields, however.

Economic data from late last week will be a test in the early part of the week. Disappointing weekly jobless claims was yet another red flag.

From elsewhere, 3rd quarter GDP numbers out of China will set the tone at the start of the week.

While we can expect the stats to influence yields, the focus will remain on Capitol Hill and the Presidential Election race. The final live televised presidential debate on Wednesday will garner plenty of attention.

Expect COVID-19 news to also influence. A continued rise in new COVID-19 cases will test market risk appetite that could deliver another record low for mortgage rates.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – October 18th, 2020

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by 0.44% on Saturday. Partially reversing a 1.62% fall from Friday, Bitcoin ended the day at $11,375.0.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $11,290.0 before striking a mid-morning high $11,388.0.

Leaving the major support and resistance levels untested, Bitcoin slid to an early afternoon intraday low $11,275.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $11,176, Bitcoin hit a mid-afternoon intraday high $11,418.0 before easing back.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $11,511, Bitcoin fell back to end the day at sub-$11,400 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Saturday.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (-1.52%), Bitcoin Cash SV (-0.19%), Crypto.com Coin (-1.91%), and Litcoin (-1.49%) saw red on the day..

Binance Coin (+0.53%), Cardano’s ADA (+1.61%), Chainlink (+0.31%), Ethereum (+0.80%), Polkadot (+1.16%), and Ripple’s XRP (+0.17%) joined Bitcoin in the green.

In the current week, the crypto total market rose to a Monday high $365.23bn before falling to a Friday low $343.10. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $350.42bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 59.47% before rising to a Friday high 60.45%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 60.19%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.14% to $11,391.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning high $11,364.9 before rising to a high $11,410.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day for the crypto majors.

Bitcoin Cash SV was down by 0.35% to buck the trend early on.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Binance Coin was up by 1.40% to lead the way.

BTC/USD 18/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $11,356 to bring the first major resistance level at $11,437 back into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from Saturday’s high $11,418.0.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another crypto breakout, Bitcoin could test the second major resistance level at $11,499.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $11,356 pivot would bring the first major support level at $11,294 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$11,200 levels. The second major support level at $11,213 should limit any downside.

European Equities: A Week in Review – 06/10/20

The Majors

It was a bearish week for the European majors in the week ending 16th October.

The DAX fell by 1.09% to lead the way down, with the CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 seeing losses of 0.22% and 0.77% respectively.

With economic data on the lighter side in the week, it was geopolitics and COVID-19 that weighed on the majors.

A continued rise in new COVID-19 cases across the EU weighed heavily on the European majors in the week. The reintroduction of lockdown measures delivered greater uncertainty over the economic outlook.

Brexit woes also tested market risk sentiment, with the EU and the UK failing to progress towards a Brexit deal.

From the U.S, fading hopes of a COVID-19 stimulus Bill ahead of the U.S Presidential Election was also market negative.

It could have been much worse, however, with a Friday rally paring some of the losses from earlier in the week.

The Stats

It was a relatively busy week on the Eurozone economic calendar.

In the early part of the week, ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for the Eurozone and Germany were in focus. Concerns over Brexit and the U.S Presidential Election led to a slide in the respective indicators for October.

Germany’s Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 77.4 to 56.1, with the Eurozone’s falling from 73.9 to 52.3.

The focus then shifted to economic data from the Eurozone that included industrial production, inflation, and trade data.

In August, industrial production rose by just 0.7%, following a 5% jump in July. More significantly, however, was a marked narrowing in the Eurozone’s trade surplus. The surplus narrowed from €27.9bn to €14.7bn.

According to Eurostat,

  • Exports of goods to the rest of the world fell by 12.2%, compared with August 2019, to €156.3bn.
  • Imports from the rest of the world fell by 13.5%, compared with August 2019, to €141.6bn.
  • In August 2019, the trade surplus had stood at €14.4bn.
  • For the period January to August 2020, exports to the rest of the world fell by 12.4%, with imports down by 13.1%.
  • Intra-euro area trade fell by 12.3% when compared with the same period in 2019.

Inflation figures for the Eurozone also failed to impress at the end of the week, with annual inflation down to 0.3% in September. In August, annual inflation had been down by 0.2%.

According to Eurostat,

  • Greece (-2.3%), Cyprus (-1.9%), and Estonia (-1.3%) had the lowest annual rates of inflation.
  • The highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation came from food, alcohol, & tobacco (+0.34 pp) and services (+0.24pp).

From the U.S

It was a busy week on the economic data front.

Key stats included September’s inflation and retail sales figures, October manufacturing data, and the weekly jobless claims.

It was a mixed bag for the Dollar in the week. The annual rate of core inflation held steady at 1.7%. Month-on-month increases in consumer prices, however, were softer than in August.

Wholesale inflation was marginally better, with the producer price index rising by 0.4% in September. In August, wholesale prices had risen by 0.3%.

For October, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index fell from 17.0 to 10.5, while the Philly Manufacturing Index rose from 15.0 to 32.3.

At the end of the week, retail sales and consumer sentiment figures were positive, supporting riskier assets.

In September, core retail sales rose by 1.5%, with retail sales jumping by 1.9%. Economists had forecast increases of 0.5% and 0.7% respectively.

Consumer sentiment also improved in October, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rising from 80.4 to 81.2. The improved sentiment came in spite of dire labor market conditions.

In the week ending 9th October, initial jobless claims came in at 898k, which was up from 845k from the week prior.

The Market Movers

From the DAX, it was a mixed week for the auto sector. Continental and Daimler rose by 0.25% and by 2.12% respectively, with Volkswagen eking out a 0.01% gain. BMW bucked the trend, however, sliding by 2.48%.

It was a bearish week for the banking sector. Commerzbank slid by 8.09, with Deutsche Bank ending the week down by 0.25%.

From the CAC, it was a particularly bearish week for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole slid by 3.62% and by 4.30% respectively. Soc Gen saw a more modest 2.90% loss following last week’s 12.5% rally.

The French auto sector saw green, however. Peugeot rose by 3.22%, with Renault rallying by 4.74%.

Air France-KLM partially reversed an 11.25% gain from the previous week with a 6.07% slide, while Airbus fell by 3.65%.

On the VIX Index

It was the 3rd week in the green from 4 for the VIX. In the week ending 16th October, the VIX rose by 9.64%. Reversing a 9.52% loss from the previous week, the VIX ended the week at 27.41.

A lack of progress towards a U.S Stimulus Bill, rising COVID-19 cases, and uncertainty over the U.S Presidential Election supported the VIX.

Economic data delivered mixed signals, also raising concerns over the pace of the economic recovery.

In spite of the risks being tilted to the downside and the rise in the VIX, it was a positive week for the U.S majors. In the week ending 16th October, the S&P500 and the Dow rose by 0.07% and by 0.19% respectively. The NASDAQ led the way, however, gaining 0.79%.

VIX 17/10/20 Weekly Chart

The Week Ahead

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar.

After a quiet start to the week, consumer confidence figures for Germany and the Eurozone are in focus on Thursday.

With the latest spike in new COVID-19 cases, a marked decline in confidence will raise concerns regarding consumption.

At the end of the week, the focus will shift to October’s prelim private sector PMIs. Another fall in the services PMIs will be a test for the majors, with the ECB looking for a consumption-driven economic recovery.

We can expect manufacturing PMI numbers to also influence…

From elsewhere, 3rd quarter GDP numbers due out of China on Monday will set the tone for the week.

From the U.S, it’s a relatively quiet week on the economic data front. The weekly jobless claims on Thursday and private sector PMIs on Friday will influence.

Away from the economic calendar, U.S politics, COVID-19 news, and Brexit will also continue to provide direction.

The Weekly Wrap – Brexit, COVID-19, and U.S Politics Drive the Majors

The Stats

It was a busier week on the economic calendar, in the week ending 16th October.

A total of 56 stats were monitored, following 43 stats from the week prior.

Of the 56 stats, 24 came in ahead of forecasts, with 21 economic indicators came up short of forecasts. 11 stats were in line with forecasts in the week.

Looking at the numbers, 20 of the stats also reflected an upward trend from previous figures. Of the remaining 36 stats, 27 reflected a deterioration from previous.

For the Greenback, it was back into the green after 2 consecutive weeks in the red. The Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.67% to 93.682. In the week ending 9th October, the Dollar Spot Index had fallen by 0.87% to 93.057.

Market risk appetite waned in the week. There were a number of factors driving demand for the Dollar. A lack of progress towards a U.S stimulus bill and a spike in COVID-19 cases were front and center in the week.

Disappointing economic data and Brexit woes also supported the demand for the safety of the Dollar.

Out of the U.S

It was a relatively busy week on the economic data front.

Inflation figures drew interest early in the week. In the 2nd half of the week, however, jobless claims and retail sales figures were the key drivers. Prelim October consumer sentiment figures were also in focus late on Friday.

In the week ending 9th October, initial jobless claims stood at 898k, which was up from 845k from the week prior. The numbers reinforced the view that the labor market recovery had stalled.

A combination of dire labor market conditions, rising new COVID-19 cases, and a lack of further stimulus was a bad combination.

At the end of the week, retail sales impressed, however. In September, retail sales rose by 1.9%, with core retail sales rising by 1.5%. Economists had forecasted increases of 0.5% and 0.7% respectively.

Aligned with the retail sales figures was a further pickup in consumer sentiment. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 80.4 to 81.2 in October, according to prelim figures. The Expectations Index increased from 75.6 to 78.8.

The only negative on the day was an unexpected 0.6% fall in industrial production.

In the equity markets, the NASDAQ rose by 0.79%, with the Dow and S&P500 gaining 0.07% and 0.19% respectively.

Out of the UK

It was a relatively busy week on the economic data front.

Key stats included August unemployment rate and employment change and September claimant count figures.

While claimant counts came in lower than expected, employment fell by more than expected over the 3-months to August.

A 153k fall in employment led to an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.5%.

While the stats provided direction, it was ultimately Brexit and COVID-19 that sank the Pound in the week.

A continued rise in new COVID-19 cases and a new round of containment measures were Pound negative.

More significantly, however, was a lack of progress towards a Brexit agreement, with the EU pushing for more talks next week.

On Friday, Boris Johnson announced that it was time to prepare for a no-trade deal Brexit unless the EU changed its stance. Downing Street also stated that there was no point in EU negotiator Michel Barnier returning to London in the week ahead.

In the week, the Pound fell by 0.93% to $1.2915. In the week prior, the Pound had risen by 0.78% to $1.3036.

The FTSE100 ended the week down by 1.61%, partially reversing a 1.94% gain from the previous week.

Out of the Eurozone

It was a relatively busy week on the economic data front.

Early in the week, key stats included ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for the Eurozone and Germany.

The indicators flashed red for October. Germany’s Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 77.4 to 56.1, with the Eurozone’s falling from 73.9 to 52.3. A lack of progress on Brexit and jitters over the U.S Presidential Election weighed in October.

Mid-week, industrial production figures for the Eurozone came up short of expectations, rising by just 0.7%. In July, production had jumped by 5.0%.

In the 2nd half of the week, Eurozone trade data and finalized inflation figures for September were in focus.

Inflation figures reaffirmed market concern over deflationary pressures. Trade data also failed to impress, with the Eurozone’s trade surplus narrowing from €27.9bn to €14.7bn in August.

While the stats provided direction, a marked increase in new COVID-19 cases weighed on the EUR in the week. France and other member states were forced to reintroduce containment measures amidst the 2nd wave.

For the week, the EUR fell by 0.91% to $1.1718. In the week prior, the EUR had risen by 0.94% to $1.1826.

For the European major indexes, it was a bearish week. The CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 fell by 0.22% and by 0.77% respectively, with the DAX30 declining by 1.09%.

For the Loonie

It was a quiet week on the economic data front.

Key stats included August’s foreign security purchases and manufacturing sales figures.

Neither set of numbers had an impact, however, as the fresh spike in new COVID-19 cases weighed on market risk sentiment.

The threat of a reintroduction of lockdown measures pegged back crude oil prices in the week.

In the week ending 16th October, the Loonie fell by 0.52% to end the week at C$1.3189. In the week prior, the Loonie had risen by 0.87%.

Elsewhere

It was a bearish week for the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar.

In the week ending 16th October, the Aussie Dollar slid by 2.20% to $0.7081. The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by a more modest 0.96% to $0.6602.

For the Aussie Dollar

It was a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar.

Key stats consumer confidence and employment figures.

It was a mixed bag for the Aussie Dollar. While consumer confidence continued to improve, employment figures were somewhat disappointing.

The unemployment rate rose from 6.8% to 6.9%, driven by a 29.5k fall in employment.

For the Aussie Dollar, it was ultimately market sentiment towards monetary policy and risk aversion that did the damage. There is the talk of an RBA next month…

For the Kiwi Dollar

It was a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar.

Key stats included electronic card retail sales figures and business PMI numbers.

The stats were Kiwi Dollar positive, with retail sales up by 5.4% and the PMI rising from 50.7 to 54.0.

While positive, however, market risk aversion pegged the Kiwi Dollar back in the week.

For the Japanese Yen

It was also a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar.

August’s core machinery orders and finalized industrial production figures were in focus.

The stats were skewed to the negative in the week. Core machinery orders rose by just 0.2%, following a 6.3% jump in July. Industrial production was revised down from 1.7% to 1.0%.

Ultimately, however, it was market risk sentiment that delivered the support for the Yen.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.21% to ¥105.4 against the U.S Dollar. In the week prior, the Yen had fallen by 0.31%.

Out of China

It was a relatively busy week on the economic data front following last week’s holiday.

Key stats included September’s trade data and inflation figures, which were skewed to the negative.

China’s U.S Dollar trade surplus narrowed from $58.93bn to $37.00bn, driven by a 13.2% jump in imports. Exports rose by a more modest 9.9%.

Inflationary pressures also softened at the end of the quarter. China’s annual rate of inflation softened from 2.4% to 1.7% in September. Wholesale deflationary pressures picked up marginally. The producer price index fell by 2.1%, following a 2.0% decline in August.

In the week ending 16th October, the Chinese Yuan slipped by 0.04% to CNY6.6976. In the week prior, the Yuan had risen by 1.42%.

The CSI300 rose by 2.36%, with the Hang Seng gaining 1.11%.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – October 17th, 2020

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.62% on Friday. Reversing a 0.60% gain from Thursday, Bitcoin ended the day at $11,325.0.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning intraday high $11,547.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $11,668, Bitcoin fell to an early morning intraday low $11,212.0.

The morning pullback saw Bitcoin fall through the first major support level at $11,313.

Finding support in the late morning, Bitcoin briefly revisited $11,400 levels before falling back through the first major support level.

A late move back through to $11,320 levels reduced the deficit on the day. The late move also saw Bitcoin break back through the first major support level at $11,313.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a bearish day on Friday.

Binance Coin (-4.18%), Bitcoin Cash ABC (-5.22%), and Bitcoin Cash SV (-5.16%) led the way down.

Cardano’s ADA (-2.25%), Ethereum (-3.26%), Litecoin (-3.87%), Polkadot (-2.81%), and Ripple’s XRP (-2.31%) also struggled.

Chainlink (-1.57%) and Crypto.com Coin (-1.94%) saw relatively modest losses on the day.

In the current week, the crypto total market rose to a Monday high $365.23bn before falling to a Friday low $343.10. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $347.00bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 59.47% before rising to a Friday high 60.45%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 60.28%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.25% to $11,297.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $11,334.0 before falling to a low $11,290.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a bearish start to the day for the crypto majors.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash SV was down by 1.68% to lead the way down.

BTC/USD 17/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the pivot level at $11,361 to bring the first major resistance level at $11,511 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break back through to $11,500 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s high $11,547.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another crypto breakout, Bitcoin could test resistance at $11,600 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $11,696.

Failure to move through the $11,361 pivot would bring the first major support level at $11,176 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $11,026.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – October 17th, 2020

Ethereum

Ethereum slid by 3.26% Friday. Following on from a 0.28% decline on Thursday, Ethereum ended the day at $365.57.

It was another mixed start to the day. Ethereum rose to an early morning intraday high $380.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $383.27, Ethereum fell to a late morning intraday low $361.38.

The pullback saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level at $371.34 and the second major support level at $364.73.

More significantly, Ethereum fell through the 38.2% FIB of $367.

Finding support in the 2nd half of the day, Ethereum revisited $371 levels before falling back through the 38.2% FIB. The first major support level at $371.34 pinned Ethereum back.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.21% to $364.80. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $365.89 before falling to a low $364.80.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETH/USD 17/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to move through the 38.2% FIB and the $368.98 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $376.59.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $370 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could visit $380 levels before any pullback. Ethereum would likely come up short of the second major resistance level at $387.60, however.

Failure to move through the 38.2% FIB and the $368.98 pivot would bring the first major support level at $357.97 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$350 levels. The second major support level at $350.36 should limit any downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $357.97

Pivot Level: $368.98

First Major Resistance Level: $376.59

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Litecoin

Litecoin slid by 3.87% on Friday. Following on from a 0.46% fall on Thursday, Litecoin ended the day at $47.63.

A relatively bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning intraday high $49.9 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $50.27, Litecoin slid to an early morning intraday low $45.64.

Litecoin fell through the day’s major support levels before a move back through to $47 levels.

The partial recovery saw Litecoin move back through the third major support level at $46.81.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.31% to $47.48. A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin fall from an early morning high $47.67 to a low $47.48.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTC/USD 17/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move through the $47.72 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $49.81.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break back through to $49 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s high $49.9 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Litecoin would likely test resistance at $51 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $51.98.

Failure to move through the $47.72 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $45.55 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, however, Litecoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $43.46.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $45.55

Pivot Level: $47.72

First Major Resistance Level: $49.81

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $45.30

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $71

62% FIB Retracement Level: $100

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP fell by 2.31% on Friday. Following on from a 1.23% decline on Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.24017.

Tracking the broader market, Ripple’s XRP rose to an early morning intraday high $0.24797 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.2499, Ripple’s XRP slid to a late morning intraday low $0.23783.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the first major support level at $0.2425 and the second major support level at $0.2391.

Finding support in the late morning, Ripple’s XRP briefly revisited $0.2426 levels before falling back.

The first major support level at $0.2425 pinned Ripple’s XRP back on the day.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was flat at $0.24024, with no movement at the start of the day.

XRP/USD 17/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to move through the $0.2420 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.2462.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $0.2450 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s high $0.24797 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, the second major resistance level at $0.2521 would likely come into play.

Failure to move through the $0.2420 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2360 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.23 levels. The second major support level at $0.2319 should limit any downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2360

Pivot Level: $0.2420

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2462

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Brexit, the EU Summit, and the Pound – Boris Johnson to Announce Next Steps

The EU Summit

It was all eyes on the EU Summit on Thursday, as negotiators and heads of states entered a final round of negotiations.

Ahead of the Summit, Boris Johnson had set a deadline of 15th October for a Brexit blueprint to be in place.

The deadline was imposed following a lack of progress from the week prior and a heated Macron–Johnson call from the weekend.

Prior to Johnson’s call with Macron, the EU had talked of compromise as the two sides remained deadlocked.

Macron made it clear that access to UK fisheries must remain unaltered, which drastically reduced the chances of an agreement.

For Boris Johnson and British negotiators, there was little progress made towards any kind of an agreement.

UK fisheries remained a stumbling block, with both sides refusing to yield.

On Wednesday, the British Prime Minister had extended his self-imposed deadline until today. The deadline was extended to consider any progress made at the EU Summit on Thursday.

With ‘no strong and credible’ sign of a breakthrough, the big question is whether Boris Johnson will pull the plug.

British negotiator David Frost appears to be of the view that a deal is reachable over the next 2-weeks.

For the British PM, however, another false deadline may prove to be damaging to his credibility. EU negotiator Barnier had mocked Johnson’s deadline earlier in the week.

When considering the EU conclusions released and summarised below, both sides have their work cut out should there be yet another round of talks.

The EU Conclusions

  • European leaders urged the UK government to take the necessary steps to clinch a UK-EU free trade deal.
  • The EU is eager to reach a fair deal, but not at any price.
  • All 27 member states agreed for Michel Barnier to continue negotiations.
  • In addition to UK fisheries, the EU cited other key areas of focus that included a level playing field and governance.
  • With regards to the Internal Market Bill, the Withdrawal Agreement and its Protocols must be fully and timely implemented.

Boris Johnson and the Pound

On Thursday, the Pound fell by 0.79% to end the day at $1.2909. It could have been much worse, with the Pound having visited sub-$1.29 levels before finding support.

For the day ahead, however, it all hinges on Boris Johnson and his view on the outcome of the EU Summit.

EU negotiators believe that talks can continue through to the middle of next month. Johnson’s latest deadlines suggest that Britain thinks otherwise. It is no coincidence that the EU’s mid-November timeline comes after the U.S Presidential Election. There is a view that the EU is stalling on the hope of a Biden victory. Johnson would lose Trump’s support, which could change the shape of negotiations.

Today’s comments from Downing Street will be pivotal, therefore, in what lies ahead.

If Boris Johnson agrees to extend talks for an additional 2-weeks, the EU may consider this as a small victory.

An unwillingness to yield on demands to access UK fisheries and a willingness by the British government to extend talks suggests the possibility of compromise.

It also means that the EU, and not Britain, will have greater control over the timelines for any remaining negotiations. If that proves to be the case, then talks can drag on until mid-November.

While this may ease some pressure on the Pound, it is worth noting that EU member states must now prepare for any eventuality. Perhaps a hint of submission that there may be no favorable outcome to further talks.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.06% to $1.2894, recovering from an early low $1.28864.

A decision by Boris Johnson to pull the plug on Brexit and further talks will send the Pound into a spin. Despite the outcome of Thursday’s Summit, hope has continued to prop up the Pound ahead of Johnson’s announcement later today.

It could be another flash crash or a move back to $1.30 levels and perhaps higher…

GBP/USD 16/10/20 Daily Chart

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – October 16th, 2020

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by 0.60% on Thursday. Following a 0.02% decline on Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $11,509.0.

It was a bearish start to the day. Bitcoin fell to a late morning intraday low $11,277 before making a move.

The morning pullback saw Bitcoin fall through the first major support level at $11,311.

Finding support going into the afternoon, however, Bitcoin struck a late intraday high $11,632.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $11,566 before falling back to sub-$11,500 levels.

Finding late support, however, Bitcoin broke back through to $11,500 levels to end the day in the green. Resistance at $11,500 continued to peg Bitcoin back, however.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Thursday.

Binance Coin (+1.69%), Bitcoin Cash ABC (+1.04%), and Bitcoin Cash SV (-0.14%) joined Bitcoin in the green.

It was a bearish day for the rest of the majors.

Polkadot led the way down, falling by 3.00%.

Chainlink (-1.20%), and Ripple’s XRP (-1.23%) also struggled.

Cardano’s ADA (-0.36%), Crypto.com Coin (-0.29%), Ethereum (-0.28%), and Litecoin (-0.46%) saw relatively modest losses on the day.

In the current week, the crypto total market slid to a Monday low $344.29bn before rising to a Monday high $365.23bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $353.67bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 59.47% before rising to a Thursday high 60.21%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 60.19%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.06% to $11,502.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $11,489.0 before rising to a high $11,512.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day for the crypto majors.

Cardano’s ADA (-0.64%), Chainlink (-0.61%), Ethereum (-0.10%), Litecoin (-0.26%), Polkadot (-0.15%), and Ripple’s XRP (-0.09%) joined Bitcoin in the red.

At the time of writing, Binance Coin was up by 0.56% to lead the way. Bitcoin Cash SV (+0.19%) and Crypto.com Coin (+0.14%) also found early support.

BTC/USD 16/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $11,473 to bring the first major resistance level at $11,668 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break back through to $11,600 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Thursday’s high $11,632.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another crypto breakout, Bitcoin could test resistance at $11,900 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $11,828.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $11,473 pivot would bring the first major support level at $11,313 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Bitcoin should to steer clear of the second major support level at $11,118.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – October 16th, 2020

Ethereum

Ethereum declined by 0.28% on Thursday. Following on from a 0.63% fall on Wednesday, Ethereum ended the day at $377.94.

It was another mixed start to the day. Ethereum rose to a mid-morning high $381.14 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the major resistance levels, Ethereum fell to a late morning intraday low $370.06.

The pullback saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level before striking a late intraday high $381.99.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $386.64, Ethereum fell back to sub-$379 levels and into the red.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.34% to $376.65. A Bearish start to the day saw Ethereum fall from an early morning high $377.94 to a low $376.65.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETH/USD 16/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to move back through the $376.66 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $383.27.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $380 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test the second major resistance level at $388.59. Resistance at $390 would likely pin Ethereum back, however.

Failure to move back through the $376.66 pivot would bring the first major support level at $371.34 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should continue to avoid the 38.2% FIB of $367. The second major support level sits at $364.73.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $371.34

Pivot Level: $376.66

First Major Resistance Level: $383.27

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Litecoin

Litecoin fell by 0.46% on Thursday. Following on from a 0.24% loss on Wednesday, Litecoin ended the day at $49.58.

A relatively bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rise to a mid-morning intraday high $50.26 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $50.82, Litecoin slid to a late morning intraday low $48.88.

Litecoin fell through the first major support level at $49.07 before revisiting $49.9 levels.

A bearish end to the day, however, saw Litecoin fall back to sub-$49.80 levels and into the red. Resistance at $50 had pinned Litecoin back late in the day.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.42% to $49.37. A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin fall from an early morning high $49.55 to a low $49.37.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTC/USD 16/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move through the $49.57 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $50.27.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break back through to $50 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Thursday’s high $50.26 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Litecoin would likely test the second major resistance level at $50.95. Resistance at $51 would likely cap any upside, however.

Failure to move through the $49.57 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $48.89 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, however, Litecoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $48.19.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $48.89

Pivot Level: $49.57

First Major Resistance Level: $50.27

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $45.30

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $71

62% FIB Retracement Level: $100

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP fell by 1.23% on Thursday. Following on from a 2.83% slide on Wednesday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.24604.

It was a choppy start to the day. Ripple’s XRP recovered from an early dip to strike a mid-morning intraday high $0.25032 before hitting reverse.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $0.2566, Ripple’s XRP slid to an early afternoon intraday low $0.24294.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the first major support level at $0.2442 before revisiting $0.2480 levels.

A bearish end to the day, however, left Ripple’s XRP down at $0.2460 levels and in the red.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.28% to $0.24536. A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall from an early morning high $0.24586 to a low $0.24512.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRP/USD 16/10/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to move through the $0.2464 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.2499.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $0.2490 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Thursday’s high $0.25032 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, the second major resistance level at $0.2538 would likely come into play.

Failure to move through the $0.2464 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2425 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.24 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2391.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2425

Pivot Level: $0.2464

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2499

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob