The Week Ahead – Central Bank Chatter, Evergrande, and a Busy Economic Calendar in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar, with 59 stats in focus in the week ending 1st October. In the week prior, 39 stats had also been in focus.

For the Dollar:

Core durable goods orders for August kicks things off on Monday.

The focus will then shift to consumer confidence figures on Tuesday. We have seen market sensitivity to consumer confidence heightened in recent months.

On Thursday, the focus will then shift to final GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter and weekly jobless claims. Barring a marked revision to the GDP numbers, expect the jobless claims to be key.

At the end of the week, inflation, personal spending, and ISM Manufacturing PMI figures will also influence.

On the monetary policy front, we will expect increased sensitivity to FOMC member chatter in the week. FED Chair Powell and a number of FOMC members are scheduled to speak in the week.

In the week ending 24th September, the Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.14% to 93.327.

For the EUR:

It’s a relatively busy week on the economic data front.

German consumer sentiment and unemployment figures will be in focus on Tuesday and Thursday.

Consumer spending from both France and Germany will also draw interest on Tuesday and Friday.

Manufacturing PMI figures for Italy and Spain, and finalized PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone wrap things up on Friday.

With inflation still a key area of interest, prelim member state and Eurozone inflation figures will also influence in the week.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is also scheduled to speak in the week. Expect any chatter on the economic outlook or monetary policy to move the dial.

For the week, the EUR fell by 0.04% to $1.1720.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Key stats include 2nd quarter GDP and finalized manufacturing PMIs due out on Thursday and Friday.

Expect any revision to prelim figures to influence.

On the monetary policy front, BoE Governor Bailey is due to speak on Wednesday. Following the BoE’s hawkish guidance last week, there will be plenty of interest in the Governor’s speech.

The Pound ended the week down by 0.45% to $1.3679.

For the Loonie:

It’s yet another quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

RMPI figures will be in focus on Thursday ahead of GDP numbers on Friday.

Expect the GDP numbers to have a greater impact in the week. Much will depend on market risk sentiment, however.

The Loonie ended the week up 0.88% to C$1.2652 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a relatively quiet week.

Retail sales figures due out on Tuesday will be the key stat of the week. On Thursday, private sector credit figures will also influence, however.

Away from the economic calendar, updates on government plans vis-à-vis lockdown measures will also be key, however.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.23% to $0.7262.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s another quiet week ahead.

Economic data is limited to business confidence figures due out on Thursday.

With the markets looking at the impact of the latest lockdown measures, expect interest in the numbers.

Key, however, will be updates from the New Zealand government on any plans to reopen.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 0.36% to $0.7015.

For the Japanese Yen:

Industrial production and retail sales figures will draw interest on Thursday.

Of greater significance, however, will be 3rd quarter Tankan survey numbers due out on Friday.

The Japanese Yen fell by 0.73% to ¥110.97 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

Private sector activity is back in focus.

NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs along with the all-important Caixin Manufacturing PMI will test market risk sentiment on Thursday.

Another set of weak numbers will likely weigh heavily on riskier assets.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week flat at CNY6.4662 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

Iran, China, and Russia remain the main areas of interest for the markets. News updates from the China, in particular, will need monitoring following last week’s holiday.

U.S Mortgage Rates See Modest Increase with Labor Market Conditions now Key

Mortgage rates rose modestly, with 30-year fixed rates increasing by just 2 basis points, reversing a 2 basis points fall from the week prior. The weekly increase was just the 5th in 10-weeks.

In the week ending 23rd September, 30-year fixed rates rose by 2 basis points to 2.88%.

30-year mortgage rates have risen just once beyond the 3% mark Since 21st April.

Compared to this time last year, 30-year fixed rates were down by 2 basis points.

30-year fixed rates were still down by 206 basis points since November 2018’s last peak of 4.94%.

Economic Data from the Week

It was a relatively quiet first half of the week, with housing sector data in focus.

In August, building permits jumped by 6%, with new housing starts rising by 3.9%. Following a 6.2% sliding in housing starts in July, a pickup in new inventories would ease inventory shortages.

Existing home sales declined by 2.0%, reversing a 2.2% increase from July.

The numbers had a muted impact on yields and mortgage rates, however, with the FED in focus on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, the FED left monetary policy unchanged and also held back on committing a date to begin tapering. Interest rate projections and the FOMC dot plot chart revealed a divided Committee, with some supporting rate hikes next year.

Freddie Mac Rates

The weekly average rates for new mortgages as of 23rd September were quoted by Freddie Mac to be:

  • 30-year fixed rates increased by 2 basis points to 2.88% in the week. This time last year, rates had stood at 2.90%. The average fee remained unchanged at 0.7 points.
  • 15-year fixed rose by 3 basis points 2.15% in the week. Rates were down by 25 basis points from 2.40% a year ago. The average fee remained unchanged at 0.6 points.
  • 5-year fixed rates decreased by 8 basis point to 2.43%. Rates were down by 47 points from 2.90% a year ago. The average fee rose from 0.1 point to 0.3 points.

According to Freddie Mac,

  • The slowdown in economic growth around the world has caused a flight to the quality of U.S financial markets.
  • This has led to a rise in foreign investor purchases of U.S Treasuries, causing mortgage rates to remain in place, despite increasing dispersion of inflation across different consumer goods and services.

Mortgage Bankers’ Association Rates

For the week ending 17th September, the rates were:

  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed with conforming loan balances remained unchanged at 3.03%. Points decreased from 0.32 to 0.30 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates backed by FHA rose from 3.04% to 3.07%. Points fell from 0.27 to 0.25 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances decreased from 3.13% to 3.11%. Points increased from 0.21 to 0.25 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

Weekly figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, which is a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased by 4.9% in the week ending 17th September. In the previous week, the index had increased by 0.3%.

The Refinance Index increased by 7% and was 5% lower than the same week one year ago. The index had declined by 3% in the week prior.

In the week ending 17th September, the refinance share of mortgage activity increased from 64.9% to 66.2%. The share had fallen from 66.8% to 64.9% in the previous week.

According to the MBA,

  • There was a resurgence in mortgage applications after Labor Day, with overall activity at its highest level in over a month.
  • Housing demand is strong heading into the fall, despite fast-rising home prices and low inventory.
  • The inventory situation is improving, with more new homes under construction and more homeowners listing their home for sale.
  • Despite this week’s increase, purchase applications were still 13% lower than the same week a year ago.

For the week ahead

It’s another quiet week ahead on the economic data front, though we can expect the numbers to influence yields.

Durable and core durable goods orders are out along with consumer confidence figures.

In the week, house price and pending home sales figures are also due out but should have a muted impact on mortgage rates.

Following last week’s interest rate projections, expect FOMC member chatter to also draw plenty of interest in the week.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – September 26th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 0.34% on Saturday. Following a 4.54% slide on Friday, Bitcoin ended the day at $42,714.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $42,986.9 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $45,095, Bitcoin slid to a late morning intraday low $41,728.0.

Steering clear of the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the first major support level at $40,686, Bitcoin revisited $42,900 levels before easing back into the red.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, in spite of the latest return to sub-$40,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Saturday.

Chainlink led the way, rallying by 5.43%, with Bitcoin Cash SV (0.64%), Cardano’s ADA (+1.00%), and Crypto.com Coin (+2.01%) also finding support on the day.

It was a bearish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Polkadot fell by 2.84% to lead the way down.

Binance Coin (-1.52%), Ethereum (-0.22%), Litecoin (-0.83%), and Ripple’s XRP (-0.53%) also joined Bitcoin in the red.

In the current week, the crypto total market rose to a Monday high $2,136bn before sliding to a Tuesday low $1,744bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,910bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 42.97% before falling to a Friday low 40.99%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 41.91%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.36% to $42,559.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $42,767.0 before falling to a low $42,451.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a bearish start to the day.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash SV was down by 2.47% to lead the way down.

BTCUSD 260921 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall back through the $42,476 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $43,225 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from Saturday’s high $42,986.8.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $45,000 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $43,735.

A fall back through the $42,476 pivot would bring the first major support level at $41,966 and the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$40,000. The second major support level at $41,218 should limit the downside.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – September 25th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, slid by 4.54% on Friday. Reversing a 3.01% gain from Thursday, Bitcoin ended the day at $42,856.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to a mid-morning intraday high $45,164.5 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $45,555, Bitcoin slid to a late morning intraday low $40,755.0.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $43,658 and the second major support level at $42,431.

More significantly Bitcoin also fell through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 before briefly revisiting $43,200 levels.

Bitcoin broke back through the 38.2% FIB and the second major support level to end the day at $42,800 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, in spite of the latest return to sub-$40,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a bearish day on Friday.

Chainlink and Bitcoin Cash SV slid by 8.64% and by 8.55% respectively to lead the way down.

Binance Coin (-7.40%), Crypto.com Coin (-6.30%), Ethereum (-7.10%), Litecoin (-7.10%), and Ripple’s XRP (-5.82%) also struggled.

Cardano’s ADA (-2.10%) and Polkadot (-3.41%) saw relatively modest losses, however.

In the current week, the crypto total market rose to a Monday high $2,136bn before sliding to a Tuesday low $1,744bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,941bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 42.97% before falling to a Friday low 40.99%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 41.50%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.05% to $42,834.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $42,652.0 before rising to a high $42,986.8.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a bullish start to the day.

At the time of writing, Polkadot was up by 3.70% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 250921 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move back through the $42,925 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $45,095 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $45,000 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s high $45,164.5 would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $48,000 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $47,335.

Failure to move back through the $42,925 pivot would bring the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the first major support level at $40,686 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $38,516.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – September 25th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum slid by 7.10% on Friday. Reversing a 2.48% gain from Thursday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,930.61.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high $3,160.48 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $3,213, Ethereum slid to a late morning intraday low $2,735.00.

Ethereum fell through the first major support level at $3,066 and the second major support level at $2,978.

Finding late support, Ethereum briefly broke back through the second major support level before ending the day at $2,930 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by $2,926.40. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,942.73 before falling to a low $2,913.44.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 250921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to move through the $2,942 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $3,149 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $3,100 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s high $3,160.48 would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could test resistance at the 23.6% FIB of $3,369 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $3,368.

Failure to move through the $2,942 pivot would bring the 38.2% FIB of $2,740 and the first major support level at $2,724 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$2,600 levels. The second major support level sits at $2,517.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,724

Pivot Level: $2,942

First Major Resistance Level: $3,149

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin slid by 7.10% on Friday. Reversing a 1.53% rise from Thursday, Litecoin ended the day at $152.25.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning intraday high $166.65 before hitting reverse.

Coming up against the first major resistance level at $167, Litecoin slid to a late morning intraday low $141.82.

The extended sell-off saw Litecoin fall through the day’s major support levels.

Finding afternoon support, however, Litecoin broke back through the third major support level at $147 to end the day at $152 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.12% to $152.06. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to an early morning low $151.64 before rising to a high $152.91.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 250921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move through the $154 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $165 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break back through to $160 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s high $166.65 would likely cap the upside.

In the event of another breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at the 23.6% FIB of $178 and the second major resistance level at $178.

Failure to move through the $154 pivot would bring the first major support level at $141 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$140. The second major support level sits at $129.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $141

Pivot Level: $154

First Major Resistance Level: $165

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $178

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $223

62% FIB Retracement Level: $296

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP fell by 5.82% on Friday. Following a 0.24% decline on Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.94359.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.00291 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.0224, Ripple’s XRP fell to a late morning intraday low $0.88738.

The extended sell-off saw Ripple’s XRP fall through the day’s major support levels.

Finding afternoon support, however, Ripple’s XRP revisited $0.958 levels before easing back.

Ripple’s XRP broke back through the third major support level at $0.8997 and the second major support level at $0.9475 before ending the day at sub-$0.947 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.47% to $0.93919. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.94508 before falling to a low $0.93821.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 250921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP would need to move back through the $0.9446 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $1.0019 into play.

Support would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $1.00 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s high $1.00291 would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at the 38.2% FIB of $1.0659 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.0602.

Failure to move back through $0.9446 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.8863 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should avoid the second major support level at $0.8291.

The 23.6% FIB of $0.8533 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.8863

Pivot Level: $0.9446

First Major resistance Level: $1.0019

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8533

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.0659

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1.4096

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

European Equities: A Week in Review – 24/09/21

The Majors

It was a relatively bullish week for the majors in the week ending 24th September. The CAC40 led the way, rising by 1.04%, with the DAX30 and the EuroStoxx600 seeing gains of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively.

Economic data from the Eurozone failed to impress in the week.

Prelim private sector PMIs for September came in weaker raising further red flags over the economic outlook. German business sentiment also softened, albeit moderately.

While the stats were skewed to the negative, an uncommitted FED delivered the majors with support in the week. The FOMC projections were market friendly, with the FED also holding back on a tapering start date.

From the U.S, economic data was also skewed to the negative, though the numbers were not weak enough to cause concern.

Away from the economic calendar, Evergrande was a key driver, ultimately delivering support.

The Stats

Private sector PMIs and German business sentiment were in focus, with the stats skewed to the negative.

In September, the French Manufacturing PMI fell from 57.5 to 55.2, with the Services PMI down from 56.3 to 56.0.

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI declined from 62.6 to 58.5, with the Services PMI falling from 60.8 to 56.0.

As a result, the Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI fell from 61.4 to 58.7, and the Services PMI down from 59.0 to 56.3.

According to the Eurozone’s September survey,

  • Business activity grew at a markedly reduced rate, reflecting the peaking of demand in Q3, supply chain bottlenecks, and lingering concerns over the pandemic.
  • Increased concerns over the Delta variant hit business expectations.
  • As a result, the rate of job creation moderated further from July’s 21-year peak.
  • Costs rose at the fastest pace in 21-years, however, as demand continued to outstrip supply.
  • New export order growth slowed to its lowest level since February, cooling sharply in the manufacturing sector.

Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index fell from 99.6 to 98.8, with the Current Assessment sub-index down from 101.4 to 100.4. The Business Expectations sub-index declined from 97.5 to 97.3.

From the U.S

A quiet start to the week left the markets on hold ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC policy decision and projections.

Stats were limited to housing sector numbers that had a muted impact on the Dollar and beyond.

On Wednesday, the FED left policy unchanged as anticipated. The markets had expected a firm timeline on tapering, which didn’t materialize, however. While there were no fixed timelines, the projections revealed a divided camp on the interest rate front, with some pointing to rate hikes from 2022.

It was good enough to deliver Dollar support as central banks elsewhere shifted back due to the Delta variant.

On Thursday, economic data failed to test support for riskier assets, with the stats skewed to the negative.

In the week ending 17th September, initial jobless claims climbed from 335k to 351k.

Prelim private sector PMIs pointed to softer growth, albeit marginally.

In September, the Manufacturing PMI fell from 61.1 to 60.5, with the Services PMI declining from 55.1 to 54.4.

FED Chair Powell wrapped things up at the end of the week, with the FED Chair looking to soften market expectation of rate hikes near-term.

The Market Movers

From the DAX, it was a mixed week for the auto sector. Continental fell by 1.48% to buck the trend. Daimler led the way, however, rallying by 4.56%, with BMW ending the week up by 1.62%. Volkswagen saw a more modest 0.59% gain in the week.

It was also a mixed week for the banking sector. Deutsche Bank slid by 2.21%, while Commerzbank ended the week flat.

From the CAC, it was a bullish week for the banks. Soc Gen rose by 1.07%. Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas led the way, however, rallying by 2.06% and by 2.35% respectively.

It was also a bullish week for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV rose by 0.51%, with Renault rallying by 6.89%.

Air France-KLM led the way, however, surging by 15.17%, with Airbus ending the week up by 2.09%.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive week in red for the VIX in the week ending 24th September.

Following a 0.67% decline from the previous week, the VIX slid 14.70% to end the week at 17.75.

4-days in the red from 5 sessions, which included 14.33% fall on Wednesday and a 10.73% decline on Thursday delivered the downside. A 23.55% jump on Monday limited the downside from the week, however.

For the week, the NASDAQ rose by 0.02%, with the Dow and the S&P500 ending the week up by 0.62% and by 0.51% respectively.

VIX 250921 Weekly Chart

The Week Ahead

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

German consumer sentiment and unemployment figures, along with French consumer spending will be in focus mid-week.

At the end of the week, German retail sales and manufacturing PMIs will also influence.

September PMIs are due out for Italy and Spain, with finalized PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone also in focus.

On the inflation front, prelim September figures for member stats and the Eurozone will also influence. A pickup in inflationary pressure would further question the current the ECB’s current transitory outlook.

From the U.S, it’s also a busy week ahead.

Core durable goods and consumer confidence figures will be in focus early in the week.

In the 2nd half of the week, jobless claims, inflation, personal spending and manufacturing sector data will also influence. Barring any marked revisions, GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter should have a muted impact on the majors.

From China, private sector PMIs will also provide the majors with direction on Thursday. Economic data from China has been on the weaker side in recent months. Softer manufacturing sector growth would test support for the majors.

Away from the economic calendar, expect news updates on Evergrande’s debt woes to also influence.

The Weekly Wrap – Economic Data, Monetary Policy, and Evergrande Delivered a Choppy Week

The Stats

It was a quieter week on the economic calendar, in the week ending 24th September.

A total of 39 stats were monitored, which was down from 61 stats in the week prior.

Of the 39 stats, 15 came in ahead forecasts, with 23 economic indicators coming up short of forecasts. There was just 1 stat that was in line with forecasts in the week.

Looking at the numbers, 10 of the stats reflected an upward trend from previous figures. Of the remaining 29 stats, 29 reflected a deterioration from previous.

For the Greenback, monetary policy divergence delivered support in the week. In the week ending 24th September, the Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.09% to 93.281. In the previous week, the Dollar had risen by 0.66% to 93.195.

Out of the U.S

A quiet start to the week left the markets on hold ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC policy decision and projections.

Stats were limited to housing sector numbers that had a muted impact on the Dollar and beyond.

On Wednesday, the FED left policy unchanged as anticipated. The markets had expected a firm timeline on tapering, which didn’t materialize, however. While there were no fixed timelines, the projections revealed a divided camp on the interest rate front, with some pointing to rate hikes from 2022.

It was good enough to deliver Dollar support as central banks elsewhere shifted back due to the Delta variant.

On Thursday, economic data pegged back the Greenback, with the stats skewed to the negative.

In the week ending 17th September, initial jobless claims climbed from 335k to 351k.

Prelim private sector PMIs pointed to softer growth, albeit marginally.

In September, the Manufacturing PMI fell from 61.1 to 60.5, with the Services PMI declining from 55.1 to 54.4.

FED Chair Powell wrapped things up at the end of the week, with the FED Chair looking to soften market expectation of rate hikes near-term.

Out of the UK

It was a busy week.

On the economic data front, CBI Industrial Trend Orders rose from 18 to 22 in September.

The numbers had a muted impact on the Pound, however, with the BoE policy decision in focus.

Private sector PMIs came in softer in September, according to prelim figures, which pegged the Pound back.

The Manufacturing PMI fell from 60.3 to 56.3, with the Services PMI declining from 55.0 to 54.6.

In spite of weak numbers, the BoE was in action later in the day, delivering strong Pound support.

While leaving policy unchanged, the MPC noted that there was a stronger case for a rise in interest rates.

In the week, the Pound fell by 0.45% to end the week at $1.3679. In the week prior, the Pound had fallen by 0.71% to $1.3741.

The FTSE100 ended the week up by 1.26%, reversing a 0.93% loss from the previous week.

Out of the Eurozone

Private sector PMIs and German business sentiment were in focus, with the stats skewed to the negative.

In September, the French Manufacturing PMI fell from 57.5 to 55.2, with the Services PMI down from 56.3 to 56.0.

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI declined from 62.6 to 58.5, with the Services PMI falling from 60.8 to 56.0.

As a result, the Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI fell from 61.4 to 58.7, and the Services PMI down from 59.0 to 56.3.

Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index fell from 99.6 to 98.8, with the Current Assessment sub-index down from 101.4 to 100.4. The Business Expectations sub-index declined from 97.5 to 97.3.

For the week, the EUR slipped by 0.04% to $1.1720. In the week prior, the EUR had fallen by 0.75% to $1.1725.

The CAC40 rallied by 1.04%, with the DAX30 and the EuroStoxx600 ending the week with up by 0.27% and 0.31% respectively.

For the Loonie

Retail sales were in focus in the 2nd half of the week.

In July, core retail sales fell by 1.0%, with retail sales down 0.6%. Core retail sales had risen by 4.7% in June, with retail sales having increased by 4.2%.

While the stats were Loonie negative, rising oil prices delivered support.

In the week ending 24th September, the Loonie rose by 0.88% to C$1.2752. In the week prior, the Loonie had fallen by 0.57% to C$1.2764.

Elsewhere

It was yet another bearish week for the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar.

The Aussie Dollar fell by 0.45% to $0.7262, with the Kiwi Dollar ending the week down by 0.36% to $0.7015.

For the Aussie Dollar

There were no material stats to provide direction, leaving the RBA meeting minutes in focus.

Renewed lockdown measures supported the RBA’s view that there would be no rate hike until 2024.

The minutes did note, however, that the Delta variant impact was likely to be temporary, however.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Consumer sentiment and trade data were in focus, with the stats Kiwi Dollar negative.

In the 3rd quarter, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 107.1 to 102.7. While down, the decline was modest when compared with the impact of the first lockdown on sentiment.

A surge in imports led to a record trade deficit in August.

Month-on-month, the trade deficit widened from NZ$397m to NZ$2,144m. Compared with August 2020, the deficit widened from NZ$1,100m to $2,940m.

For the Japanese Yen

In August, core consumer prices were unchanged, year-on-year, after having fallen by 0.2% in July.

Service sector activity saw a softer contraction in September, which was also good news. The Services PMI rose from 43.5 to 47.4. Manufacturing sector activity did see slower growth, however, with the PMI falling from 52.7 to 51.2.

On the monetary policy front, the BoJ went largely unnoticed, with the September hold on monetary policy.

The Japanese Yen fell by 0.73% to ¥110.73 against the U.S Dollar. In the week prior, the Yen had risen by 0.01% to ¥109.93.

Out of China

There were no major stats in a shortened week.

On the policy front, the PBoC left loan prime rates unchanged, which was in line with expectations.

In the week ending 24th September, the Chinese Yuan was unchanged at CNY6.4662. In the week prior, the Yuan had ended the week down by 0.34% to CNY6.4661.

The CSI300 and the Hang Seng ended the week down by 0.13% and by 2.92% respectively.

Economic Data and Central Bank Chatter Put the EUR and the Dollar in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and the Japanese Yen were in action this morning.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Trade figures were in focus in the early hours.

In August, New Zealand’s trade deficit widened from NZ$397m to NZ$2,144m. Year-on-year, the deficit widened from NZ$1,100m to NZ$2,940m.

According to NZ Stats,

  • Imports rose by NZ$1.08bn, compared with August 2020, leading to a record monthly trade deficit.
  • Exports were little changed, falling by NZ$42m.
  • Vehicles, parts, & accessories imports were up NZ$415m, with mechanical machinery & equipment up NZ$223m.
  • Petroleum & petrol product imports increased by NZ$207m.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.70713 to $0.70704 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.11% to $0.7077.

For the Japanese Yen

In August, core consumer prices remained unchanged in August, year-on-year, which was in line with forecasts. Core consumer prices had fallen by 0.2%, year-on-year, in July.

Of greater significance were prelim private sector PMIs.

In September, the Services PMI rose from 43.5 to 47.4, while the Manufacturing PMI declined from 52.7 to 51.2.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥110.402 to ¥110.408 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.05% to ¥109.380 against the U.S Dollar.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.23% to $0.7312.

The Day Ahead

For the EUR

It’s a quieter day ahead on the economic calendar. Business sentiment figures for Germany will be in focus in the early part of the European session.

Following the disappointing PMI numbers from Thursday, a larger than expected decline would test support for the EUR.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.07% to $1.1747.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

Following the BoE’s more hawkish stance on Thursday, risk sentiment would need to deteriorate to weaken the Pound.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.12% to $1.3736.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead. Key stats include new home sales figures, which should have a muted impact on the Dollar.

FED Chair Powell and other FOMC member are scheduled to speak later in the day, however, and could move the dial.

At the time of writing, the U.S Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to $93.063.

For the Loonie

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead for the Loonie. There are no material stats due out of Canada later today.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and crude oil prices.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.08% to C$1.2645 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – September 24th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by 3.01% on Thursday. Following a 6.94% rally on Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $44,884.7.

A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning intraday low $43,102.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the first major support level at $41,450, Bitcoin rallied to a late intraday high $45,000.0.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $44,849 to end the day at $44,880 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, in spite of the latest return to sub-$40,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Thursday.

Bitcoin Cash SV (-0.93%) and Ripple’s XRP (-0.24%) bucked the trend on the day.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors.

Chainlink rose by 4.12% to lead the way, with Cardano’s ADA (+3.07%), Ethereum (+2.48%), and Polkadot (+2.65%) close behind.

Binance Coin (+1.25%), Crypto.com Coin (+0.55%), and Litecoin (+1.53%) trailed the front runners, however.

In the current week, the crypto total market rose to a Monday high $2,136bn before sliding to a Tuesday low $1,744bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,043bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 42.97% before falling to a Thursday low 41.07%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 41.46%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.21% to $44,978.9. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $44,738.0 before rising to a high $44,993.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Crypto.com Coin led the way, rising by 2.39%, with Litecoin up by 1.10%.

Binance Coin (+0.37%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+0.12%), and Cardano’s ADA (+0.51%) also found early support.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Polkadot was down by 0.47% to lead the way down.

BTCUSD 240921 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid the $44,329 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $45,555 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $45,500 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $48,000 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $46,227.

A fall through the $44,329 pivot would bring the first major support level at $43,658 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$43,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $42,431.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – September 24th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 2.48% on Thursday. Following a 11.31% rally on Wednesday, Ethereum ended the day at $3,154.62.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning low $3,035.83 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2,848, Ethereum rose to a late afternoon intraday high $3,182.34.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $3,200, however, Ethereum eased back to end the day at $3,150 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 0.11% to $3,158.16. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning low $3,146.08 before rising to a high $3,159.43.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 240921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid the $3,124 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $3,213 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Thursday’s high $3,182.34.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could test resistance at the 23.6% FIB of $3,369 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $3,271.

A fall through the $3,124 pivot would bring the first major support level at $3,066 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$3,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $2,978.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $3,066

Pivot Level: $3,124

First Major Resistance Level: $3,213

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 1.53% on Thursday. Following an 8.69% gain on Wednesday, Litecoin ended the day at $163.92.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to a late morning intraday low $157.26 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $151, Litecoin rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $165.00.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $167, however, Litecoin eased back to end the day at $163 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 1.27% to $166.00. A bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rise from an early morning low $163.82 to a high $166.21.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 240921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid the $162 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $167 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from $166 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of another breakout, Litecoin could test the second major resistance level at $170.

A fall through the $162 pivot would bring the first major support level at $159 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$150. The second major support level at $154 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $159

Pivot Level: $162

First Major Resistance Level: $167

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $178

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $223

62% FIB Retracement Level: $296

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP fell by 0.24% on Thursday. Following a 14.84% surge on Wednesday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $1.00164.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.01611 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.0509, Ripple’s XRP fell to a late morning intraday low $0.96828.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.9111, Ripple’s XRP found support to end the day at $1.00 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.31% to $0.99854. A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall from an early morning high $1.00194 to a low $0.99811.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 240921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP would need to avoid the $0.9953 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $1.0224 into play.

Support would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $1.02 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at the 38.2% FIB of $1.0659 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.0432.

A fall through $0.9953 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.9746 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should avoid the second major support level at $0.9475.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.9746

Pivot Level: $0.9953

First Major resistance Level: $1.0224

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8533

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.0659

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1.4096

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

European Equities: German Business Sentiment and FED Chair Powell in Focus

Economic Calendar

Friday, 24th September

German Ifo Business Climate Index (Sep)

The Majors

It was another bullish day for the European majors on Thursday, with the majors logging a 3rd consecutive day in the green.

The CAC40 rose by 0.98% to lead the way once more, with the DAX30 and the EuroStoxx600 rising by 0.88% and 0.90% respectively.

Market reaction to the FOMC projections from overnight on Wednesday provided support, offsetting disappointing private sector PMI numbers.

Easing concerns over an Evergrande default added further support to the majors on the day.

The Stats

It’s a was a particularly busy day on the Eurozone economic calendar. Prelim private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone were in focus.

In September, the French Manufacturing PMI fell from 57.5 to 55.2, with the Services PMI down from 56.3 to 56.0.

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI declined from 62.6 to 58.5, with the Services PMI falling from 60.8 to 56.0.

As a result, the Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI fell from 61.4 to 58.7, and the Services PMI down from 59.0 to 56.3.

According to the Eurozone’s September Composite survey,

  • Business activity grew at a markedly reduced rate, reflecting the peaking of demand in Q3, supply chain bottlenecks, and lingering concerns over the pandemic.
  • Increased concerns over the Delta variant hit business expectations.
  • As a result, the rate of job creation moderated further from July’s 21-year peak.
  • Costs rose at the fastest pace in 21-years, however, as demand continued to outstrip supply.
  • New export order growth slowed to its lowest level since February, cooling sharply in the manufacturing sector.

From the U.S

Economic data included the weekly jobless claims and prelim private sector PMI numbers.

In the week ending 17th September, initial jobless claims increased from 335k to 351k. Economists had forecast a fall to 320k.

From the private sector, a slowdown in growth was more modest than seen across the Eurozone.

The Manufacturing PMI slipped from 61.1 to 60.5, with the Services PMI declining from 55.1 to 54.4. As a result, the Composite PMI fell from 55.4 to 54.5. Economists had forecast an increase to 59.5.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a mixed day for the auto sector on Thursday. BMW slipped by 0.07% to buck the trend on the day. Continental rallied by 2.66% to lead the way, however, with Daimler ending the day up by 1.55%. Volkswagen rose by a more modest 1.05%.

It was a bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank saw gains of 1.67% and 2.33% respectively.

From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. Soc Gen and Credit Agricole rallied by 2.58% and by 2.65% respectively, with BNP Paribas up by 2.26%.

It was also a bullish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV and Renault ended the day up by 1.93% and by 2.83% respectively.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE saw modest gains of 0.49% and 0.73% respectively.

On the VIX Index

It was a 3rd consecutive day in the red for the VIX on Thursday.

Following a 14.33% slide from Wednesday, the VIX fell by 10.73% to end the day at 18.63.

The NASDAQ rose by 1.04%, with the Dow and S&P500 ending the day up by 1.48% and by 1.21% respectively.

VIX 230921 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a quieter day ahead on the Eurozone’s economic calendar.

From the Eurozone, Germany’s IFO Business Climate figures will be in focus. Following disappointing PMI numbers from Thursday, we can expect today’s figures to influence.

From the U.S, it’s also a quieter day ahead, with economic data limited to housing sector numbers. While the stats should have a muted impact on the majors, FED Chair Powell is scheduled to speak later in the day. Expect any chatter on the economy or monetary policy to influence.

Away from the economic calendar, Evergrande will continue to be an area of interest.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 27 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin Price Prediction – Bulls Avoid sub-$43,000, Bringing $45,000 into Play

Following a broadly bullish session on Wednesday, it’s been a bearish morning for Bitcoin and the broader market.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin, BTC to USD, was down by 0.01% to $43,569.7.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $43,102.0 before finding support.

Steering clear of the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the first major support level at $41,450, Bitcoin rose to a mid-morning high $44,356.0.

In spite of the recovery, Bitcoin fell well short of the first major resistance level at $44,849, leading to a pullback to sub-$44,000 levels.

BTCUSD 230921 Hourly Chart

The Rest of the Pack

It has also been a bearish morning for the broader crypto market.

At the time of writing, Chainlink was down by 4.01% to lead the way down, with Cardano’s ADA down by 3.17%

Binance Coin (-2.22%), Bitcoin Cash SV (-2.81%), Litecoin (-2.28%), Polkadot (-2.12%), and Ripple’s XRP (-2.76%) also struggled.

Crypto.com Coin (-0.72%) and Ethereum (-0.48%) saw relatively modest losses, however.

Through the early hours, the crypto total market cap fell to an early morning low $1,954bn before rising to a high $2,018bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,972bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to an early morning low 41.34% before rising to a high 41.66%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 41.55%.

For the Afternoon Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the $42,725 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $44,849 back into play.

Support from the broader market will be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from the morning high $44,356.0.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound, the first major resistance level and resistance at $45,000 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally through the afternoon, Bitcoin could test resistance at $48,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $46,124.

A fall through the $42,725 pivot would bring the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the first major support level at $41,450 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off through the afternoon, however, Bitcoin should avoid sub-$40,000 support levels. The second major support level sits at $39,326.

Looking beyond the support and resistance levels, we saw the 50 EMA narrow on the 100 and the 200 EMAs through the morning.

We also saw the 100 EMA hold steady on the 200 EMA, providing support.

Through the 2nd half of the day, a further narrowing of the 50 EMA on the 100 and 200 EMAs would bring $45,000 levels into play.

Key through the late morning and early afternoon would be to avoid a fall through the day’s pivot to $42,725 to support Bitcoin and the broader market.

Dogecoin – Daily Tech Analysis – September 23rd, 2021

Dogecoin

Dogecoin surged by 11.80% on Wednesday. Reversing a 3.69% loss from Tuesday, Dogecoin ended the day at $0.2246.

A mixed start to the day saw Dogecoin fall to an early morning intraday low $0.1999 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.1930, Dogecoin rallied to a late morning intraday high $0.2306.

Dogecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $0.2137 and the second major resistance level at $0.2264.

A late pullback, however, saw Dogecoin fall back through the second major resistance level to end the day at sub-$0.225 levels.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin was down by 1.26% to $0.2218. A bearish start to the day saw Dogecoin fall from an early morning high $0.2246 to a low $0.2211.

Dogecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

DOGEUSD 230921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Dogecoin would need to avoid the $0.2184 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.2368 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Dogecoin to break out from Thursday’s high $0.2306.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $0.24 would likely cap the upside

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Dogecoin could test resistance at $0.26 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.2491.

A fall through $0.2184 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2061 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Dogecoin should avoid sub-$0.20 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.1877.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2061

Pivot Level: $0.2184

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2368

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3016

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3859

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5221

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – September 23rd, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by 6.94% on Wednesday. Reversing a 5.29% loss from Tuesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $43,574.0.

A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning intraday low $40,601.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $39,076, Bitcoin rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $44,000.0.

Bitcoin broke through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the first major resistance level at $43,023 to end the day at $43,500 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, in spite of the latest return to sub-$40,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Wednesday.

Crypto.com Coin fell by 1.04% to buck the trend.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors.

Ripple’s XRP surged by 14.84% to lead the way, with Cardano’s ADA (+13.88%), Chainlink (+14.06%), Ethereum (+11.31%), and Polkadot (+11.98%) close behind.

Binance Coin (+10.16%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+6.08%), and Litecoin (+8.69%) also found strong support, however.

Early in the week, the crypto total market rose to a Monday high $2,136bn before sliding to a Tuesday low $1,744bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,968bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 43.00% before falling to a Tuesday low 41.22%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 41.46%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.61% to $43,308.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $43,857.9 before falling to a low $43,302.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Crypto.com Coin was up by 1.14% to buck the early trend.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 1.28% to lead the way down.

BTCUSD 230921 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid the $42,725 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $44,849 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $44,000 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $45,000 would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $48,000 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $46,124.

A fall through the $42,725 pivot would bring the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the first major support level at $41,450 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$40,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $39,326.

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – September 23rd, 2021

EOS

EOS rallied by 10.57% on Wednesday. Reversing a 7.34% loss from Tuesday, EOS ended the day at $4.3009.

A bearish start to the day saw EOS fall to an early morning low $3.8072 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $3.6799, EOS rallied to a late morning intraday high $4.3343.

EOS broke through the first major resistance level at $4.2065 to end the day at $4.30 levels.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 0.67% to $4.2720. A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to an early morning low $4.2623 before rising to a high $4.3264.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOSUSD 230921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid the $4.1475 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $4.4877 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed to break back through to $4.40 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance and resistance at $4.50 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test the second major resistance level at $4.6746 before any pullback.

A fall through the $4.1475 pivot would bring the first major support level at $3.9006 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer clear of sub-$3.80 levels. The second major support level sits at $3.6204.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $3.9006

First Major resistance Level: $4.4877

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen rallied by 10.00% on Wednesday. Reversing a 5.71% decline from Tuesday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the day at $0.2822.

A bearish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to an early morning intraday low $0.2608 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2562, Stellar’s Lumen rallied to a late intraday high $0.2931.

Stellar’s Lumen broke through the first major resistance level at $0.2818 to end the day at $0.29 levels.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was flat at $0.2627. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to an early morning low $0.2908 before rising to a high $0.2943.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 230921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to avoid the $0.2822 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.3037 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break back through to $0.30 levels.

Barring an extended rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test resistance at $0.32 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.3146.

A fall through the $0.2822 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2713 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.27 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2498.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2713

First Major Resistance Level: $0.3037

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3402

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4277

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5690

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX jumped by 12.04% on Wednesday. Reversing a 3.62% fall from Tuesday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.09892.

A bearish start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning intraday low $0.08648 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.08446, Tron’s TRX rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $0.09906.

Tron’s TRX broke through the first major resistance level at $0.09396 and the 38.2% FIB of $0.09890.

Falling short of the second major resistance level at $0.09965, however, Tron’s TRX eased back to end the day at sub-$0.099 levels. Late in the day, Tron’s TRX found support at the 38.2% FIB of $0.09890.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 0.10% to $0.09882. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning low $0.09771 before rising to a high $0.09962.

While leaving the major support and resistance levels untested, Tron’s TRX tested resistance at the 38.2% FIB of $0.09890 early on.

TRXUSD 230921 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to avoid the $0.09482 pivot to bring the 38.2% FIB of $0.09890 and the first major resistance level at $0.1032 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break back through to $0.10 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Tron’s TRX could test resistance at $0.11 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.1074.

A fall through the $0.09482 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.09058 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of the 23.6% FIB of $0.07870. The second major support level at $0.08224 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.09058

First Major Resistance Level: $0.1032

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0787

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0989

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1316

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – September 23rd, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rallied by 11.31% on Wednesday. Reversing a 7.08% decline from Tuesday, Ethereum ended the day at $3,078.43.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning low $2,738.24 before making a move.

In spite of the early pullback, Ethereum steered clear of the first major support level at $2,576.

Finding support at the 38.2% FIB of $2,740, however, Ethereum rallied to a late intraday high $3,090.83.

Ethereum broke back through the 38.2% FIB and through first major resistance level at $3,030 to end the day at $3,070 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 0.44% to $3,064.90. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $3,085.23 before falling to a low $3,061.38.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 230921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid the $2,969 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $3,200 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $3,150 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could test resistance at the 23.6% FIB of $3,369 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $3,322.

A fall through the $2,969 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,848 and the 38.2% FIB of $2,740 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$2,700 levels. The second major support level sits at $2,617.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,848

Pivot Level: $2,969

First Major Resistance Level: $3,200

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 8.69% on Wednesday. Reversing a 5.50% fall from Tuesday, Litecoin ended the day at $161.50.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to an early morning intraday low $145.31 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $141, Litecoin rallied to a late intraday high $161.87.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $159 to end the day at $161 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 1.15% to $159.65. A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin fall from an early morning high $161.51 to a low $159.06.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 230921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid the $156 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $167 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from $165 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of another breakout, Litecoin could test the second major resistance level at $173.

A fall through the $156 pivot would bring the first major support level at $151 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$150. The second major support level sits at $140.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $151

Pivot Level: $156

First Major Resistance Level: $167

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $178

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $223

62% FIB Retracement Level: $296

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP surged by 14.84% on Wednesday. Reversing a 5.22% loss from Tuesday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $1.00265.

A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning low $0.86784 before making a move.

Steering clear of the 23.6% FIB of $0.8533 and the major support levels, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a late intraday high $1.00765.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the first major resistance level at $0.9356 and the second major resistance level at $0.9977 to end the day at $1.0 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.42% to $0.99845. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $1.00816 before falling to a low $0.99609.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 230921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP would need to avoid the $0.9594 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.1.0509 and the 38.2% FIB of $1.0659 into play.

Support would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $1.05 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and the 38.2% FIB of $1.0659 would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $1.10 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.0992

A fall through $0.9594 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.9111 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should avoid the second major support level at $0.8196.

The 23.6% FIB of $0.8533 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.9111

Pivot Level: $0.9594

First Major resistance Level: $1.0509

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8533

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.0659

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1.4096

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

European Equities: FOMC Projections and Private Sector PMIs in Focus

Economic Calendar

Thursday, 23rd September

Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

French Manufacturing PMI (Sep) Prelim

French Services PMI (Sep) Prelim

German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) Prelim

German Services PMI (Sep) Prelim

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Sep) Prelim

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Sep) Prelim

Eurozone Services PMI (Sep) Prelim

Friday, 24th September

German Ifo Business Climate Index (Sep)

The Majors

It was another bullish day for the European majors on Wednesday.

The CAC40 rose by 1.29% to lead the way, with the DAX30 and the EuroStoxx600 seeing gains of 1.03% and 0.99% respectively.

There were no major stats to distract the markets following a choppy start to the week, leaving FED monetary policy in focus.

With the markets expecting a firm timeline to begin tapering, uncertainty over the outlook for interest rates remained a test.

While FED uncertainty was a test, Evergrande news updates delivered support for riskier assets on the day. News hit the wires early in the day that Evergrande would meet interest payments, easing immediate concerns of a default.

The Stats

It’s a was a particularly quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar. There were no major stats to provide the majors with direction on the day.

From the U.S

Economic data was limited to August housing sector numbers that had a muted impact on market risk sentiment.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Wednesday. BMW and Daimler rallied by 3.46% and by 3.97%, respectively. Continental and Volkswagen also found support, ending the day up by 1.15% and by 2.51% respectively.

It was also a bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank saw gains of 3.81% and 3.79% respectively.

From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. Soc Gen and BNP Paribas rallied by 3.70% and by 3.50% respectively, with Credit Agricole up by 3.27%.

It was also a bullish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV and Renault ended the day up by 2.80% and by 3.60% respectively.

Air France-KLM rallied by 4.02%, with Airbus SE rising by 2.26%.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive day in the red for the VIX on Wednesday.

Following a 5.25% fall from Tuesday, the VIX slid by 14.33% to end the day at 20.87.

The NASDAQ rose by 1.02%, with the Dow and S&P500 ending the day up by 1.00% and by 0.95% respectively.

 

The Day Ahead

It’s a busy day ahead on the Eurozone’s economic calendar.

From the Eurozone, prelim September private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are due out later today.

With concerns lingering over the economic recovery, today’s figures will set the tone going into the final quarter of the year.

From the U.S, initial jobless claims and private sector PMIs will also draw interest, with the services PMI key.

While the stats will influence, the markets will also respond to the FED’s overnight monetary policy decision, press conference, and FOMC projections.

Away from the economic calendar, Evergrande will remain an area of interest.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 33 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

A Busy Economic Calendar and the BoE to Keep the Markets Busy

Earlier in the Day:

It was another particularly quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. There were no major stats from the Asian session to provide the markets with direction.

While there were no stats, the markets responded further to the overnight FOMC projections, statement, and press conference.

For the Majors

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.03% to ¥109.810 against the U.S Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar down by 0.08% to $0.7241. The Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.06% to $0.7005.

The Day Ahead

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Prelim September private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are due out along with Spanish GDP numbers.

Expect the PMIs to draw plenty of interest as the markets look for any further signs of a slowdown in momentum.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.06% to $1.1694.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar.

On the economic data front, prelim September private sector PMIs will be in focus. Expect the Services PMI to have a greater impact.

The main event of the day, however, will be the BoE monetary policy decision. With inflationary pressures lingering, will there be any decent to bring the Pound back to life?

At the time of writing, the Pound was flat at $1.3622.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively busy day ahead. Key stats include prelim private sector PMIs for September and the weekly jobless claim figures.

Expect the jobless claims and services PMI to be the key drivers on the day.

Following Wednesday’s FOMC projections, FOMC member chatter will also influence.

On Wednesday, the U.S Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.26% to end the day at $93.450.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead for the Loonie. Retail sales figures for July will be in focus later in the day.

With little else for the markets to consider, expect today’s stats to influence.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.01% to C$1.2771 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin Price Prediction – Bulls Need to Revisit $43,000 or Face another Sell-off

Following a broadly bearish session on Tuesday, it’s been a broadly bullish morning for Bitcoin and the broader market.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin, BTC to USD, was up by 3.91% to $42,340.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $40,601.0 before finding support.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $39,076, Bitcoin rose to a late morning high $42,744.0.

In spite of the recovery, Bitcoin fell well short of the first major resistance level at $43,023.

BTCUSD 220921 Hourly Chart

The Rest of the Pack

It has also been a mixed morning for the broader crypto market.

Through the morning, Crypto.com Coin was down by 4.49% to buck the morning trend.

It’s been a relatively bullish morning for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Cardano’s ADA and Ripple’s XRP were up by 7.83% and by 7.72% to lead the way.

Binance Coin (+5.39%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+3.70%), Chainlink (6.93%), Ethereum (+6.28%), Litecoin (+4.24%), Polkadot (+4.57%) also found strong support.

Through the early hours, the crypto total market cap fell to an early morning low $1,809bn before rising to a high $1,908bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,899bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to an early morning high 42.59% before falling to a low 42.03%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 42.02%.

For the Afternoon Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall back through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the $41,350 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $43,022 into play.

Support from the broader market will be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from the morning high $42,744.0.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally through the afternoon, Bitcoin could test resistance at $45,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $45,297.

A fall back through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the $41,350 pivot would bring the first major support level at $39,076 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off through the afternoon, however, Bitcoin should avoid sub-$39,000 support levels. The second major support level sits at $37,403.

Looking beyond the support and resistance levels, we saw the 50 EMA pullback from the 100 and the 200 EMAs through the morning.

We also saw the 100 EMA pullback from the 200 EMA, also a bearish signal.

Through the 2nd half of the day, a flattening of the 50 EMA on the 100 and 200 EMAs would provide support.

Key through the late morning and early afternoon would be to avoid a fall back through the day’s pivot to $41,350 to support Bitcoin and the broader market.

Dogecoin – Daily Tech Analysis – September 22nd, 2021

Dogecoin

Dogecoin fell by 3.69% on Tuesday. Following a 10.43% slide on Monday, Dogecoin ended the day at $0.2009.

A choppy start to the day saw Dogecoin fall to an early morning low $0.1988 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.1940, Dogecoin rose to a late morning intraday high $0.2185.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.2285, however, Dogecoin slid to a late intraday low $0.1978.

Continuing to steer clear of the major support levels, Dogecoin moved back through to $0.20 levels to reduce the deficit.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin was down by 0.45% to $0.19996. A mixed start to the day saw Dogecoin rise to an early morning high $0.2050 before falling to a low $0.19989.

Dogecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

DOGEUSD 220921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Dogecoin would need to move through the $0.2057 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.2137 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Dogecoin to break back through to $0.21 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Tuesday’s high $0.2185 would likely cap the upside

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Dogecoin could test resistance at $0.23 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.2264.

Failure to move through $0.2057 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.1930 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Dogecoin should avoid sub-$0.19 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.1850.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.1930

Pivot Level: $0.2057

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2137

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3016

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3859

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5221

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob