Bitcoin and Ripple’s XRP – Weekly Technical Analysis – April 19th, 2021

Bitcoin

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 6.43% in the week ending 18th April. Reversing a 3.08% gain from the previous week, Bitcoin ended the week at $56,172.0.

A bullish start to the week saw Bitcoin rise to a Tuesday intraweek high and a new swing hi $64,829.0 before hitting reverse.

Coming up against the first major resistance level at $64,631, Bitcoin slid to a Sunday intraweek low $50,500.0.

The sell-off saw Bitcoin fall through the first major support level at $56,644.

Finding support at the 23.6% FIB of $50,473, Bitcoin moved back through to $56,000 levels to reduce the deficit. The first major support level at $56,644 pinned Bitcoin back on Sunday.

5 days in the red that included a 6.27% slide on Sunday delivered the downside for the week.

For the week ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the $57,167 pivot to support a run the first major resistance level at $63,834.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $60,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and last week’s new swing hi $64,829.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Bitcoin could test resistance at $70,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $71,496.

Failure to move through the $57,167 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $50,473 and the first major support level at $49,505 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$45,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $42,838.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 1.01% to $56,738.0. A mixed start to the week saw Bitcoin fall to an early Monday morning low $55,709.0 before rising to a high $57,200.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

BTCUSD 190421 Daily Chart

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 4.67% in the week ending 18th April. Following on from a 113.1% surge from the previous week, Ripple’s XRP ended the week at $1.41371.

A bullish start to the week saw Ripple’s XRP rally to a Tuesday intraweek high and a new swing hi $1.96598.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the first major resistance level at $1.6927 before sliding to a Sunday intraweek low $1.1500.

The sell-off saw Ripple’s XRP fall through the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 and the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.8162, however, Ripple’s XRP found support to end the week at $1.41 levels.

Ripple’s XRP broke back through the 38.2% FIB to end the week in positive territory.

3-days in the green included a 22.32% breakout on Tuesday delivered the upside for the week. An 11.91% slide on Friday and an 8.33% loss on Sunday pared some of the gains, however.

For the week ahead

Ripple’s XRP would need to move through the pivot at $1.5099 and the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 to bring the first major resistance level at $1.8698 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $1.80 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and last week’s swing hi $1.96598 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Ripple’s XRP could test the second major resistance level at $2.3259.

Failure to move through the pivot at $1.5099 and the 23.6% FIB would bring the first major support level at $1.0538 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off in the week, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$1.00 levels and the 62% FIB of $0.8573. The second major support sits at $0.6939.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 2.57% to $1.45001. A mixed start to the week saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early Monday morning low $1.3600 before rising to a high $1.46.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

XRPUSD 190421 Daily Chart

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – April 19th, 2021

EOS

EOS fell 6.35% on Sunday. Following on from an 8.49% slide on Saturday, EOS ended the week up by 8.58% to $7.2996.

A bullish start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning intraday high $7.9496 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $8.5691 slid to an early morning intraday low $5.7984.

The sell-off saw EOS fall through the first major support level at $7.3032 and the second major support level at $6.8203.

EOS also fell through the 23.6% FIB of $6.52 before finding support.

Steering clear of the third major support level at $5.5544, EOS bounced back to end the day at $7.2 levels.

The partial recovery saw EOS break back through the 23.6% FIB and the second major support level.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 0.42% to $7.2877. A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to an early morning low $7.0454 before rising to a high $7.5766.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOSUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid the $7.0159 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $8.2333.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break back through to $8.00 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $9.00 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $9.1671.

A fall through the $7.0159 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $6.52 and the first major support level at $6.0821 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer clear of sub-$5.50 levels. The second major support level sits at $4.8647.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $6.0821

First Major resistance Level: $8.2333

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen slid by 7.83% on Sunday. Following on from a 3.03% loss on Saturday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the week down by 6.52% to $0.5460.

A bullish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning intraday high $0.6014 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.6275, Stellar’s Lumen slid to an early morning intraday low $0.4590.

Stellar’s Lumen fell through the day’s major support levels and through the 23.6% FIB of $0.5342.

Finding support in the afternoon, Stellar’s Lumen bounced back to end the day at $0.54 levels.

The partial recovery saw Stellar’s Lumen break back through the third major support level at $0.5017 and the 23.6% FIB of $0.5342.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was up by 0.79% to $0.5503. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to an early morning low $0.5362 before rising to a high $0.5623.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to avoid the pivot level at $0.5355 and the 23.6% FIB to bring the first major resistance level at $0.6119 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen break back through to $0.60 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test resistance at $0.65. The second major resistance level sits at $0.6778.

A fall through the $0.5355 pivot and the 23.6% FIB of $0.5342 would bring the first major support level at $0.4695 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.40 levels. the second major support level sits at $0.3931.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.4695

First Major Resistance Level: $0.6119

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5342

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4373

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2808

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX slid by 7.72% on Sunday. Following on from a 3.42% decline from Saturday, Tron’s TRX ended the week up by 17.91% to $0.1435.

A bullish start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning intraday high $0.1577 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.1739, Tron’s TRX slid to an early morning intraday low $0.1206.

Tron’s TRX fell through the first major support level at $0.1446 and the second major support level at $0.1338.

The sell-off also saw Tron’s TRX slide through the 23.6% FIB of $0.1426 before finding support.

Through the afternoon, Tron’s TRX broke back through the major support levels and the 23.6% FIB to visit $0.145 levels.

A bearish end to the day, however, saw Tron’s TRX fall back through the first major support level at $0.1446 to end the day at sub-$0.144 levels.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was up by 1.29% to $0.1454. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning low $0.1379 before rising to a high $0.1497.

While leaving the major support and resistance levels untested early on, Tron’s TRX briefly fell through the 23.6% FIB.

TRXUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to avoid a fall back through the 23.6% FIB and the $0.1406 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.1606 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break back through to $0.15 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally Tron’s TRX could test resistance at $0.17 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.1777.

A fall back through the 23.6% FIB of $0.1426 and the $0.1406 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.1235 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of the second major support level at $0.1035. The 38.2% FIB of $0.1167 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.1235

First Major Resistance Level: $0.1606

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1167

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0748

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

A Light Economic Calendar Leaves COVID-19 and Geopolitics in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen was in action this morning. Later this morning, finalized industrial production figures from Japan are also due out. Barring a marked revision from prelim figures, however, the numbers should have a muted impact on the Yen and the broader market.

For the Japanese Yen

Trade data was in focus this morning.

In March, the trade surplus widened from ¥215.9bn to ¥663.7bn. Economists had forecast a widening to ¥490.0bn.

According to figures released by the Ministry of Finance,

  • Exports surged by 16.1% to reverse a 4.5% decline from February. Economists had forecast an 11.6% increase.
    • Exports to China jumped by 37.2%, with exports to Western Europe rising by 8.5%.
    • To the U.S, exports rose by a more modest 4.9%.
  • Imports rose by 5.7%, year-on-year, following an 11.8% jump in February. Economists had forecast a 4.7% increase.
    • Imports from China rose by 10.0%, with imports from Western Europe rising by 19.4%.
    • From the U.S, imports rose by 6.5%.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥108.702 to ¥108.690 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.14% to ¥108.65 against the U.S Dollar.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.18% to $0.7720, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.11% to $0.7134.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no major stats from the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of COVID-19, vaccination rates, and any plans to ease containment measures.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.32% to $1.1945.

For the Pound

It’s also a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

A lack of stats would leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.11% to $1.3817.

Across the Pond

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Greenback and the broader markets with direction.

The lack of stats will leave chatter from Capitol Hill and U.S foreign policy in focus. A rise in geopolitical tension between the U.S and China and the U.S and Russia needs monitoring.

From the weekend, news of new COVID-19 cases rising by a record number last week delivered Dollar support early on. The latest surge in new COVID-19 cases comes amidst the ongoing vaccination programs that had delivered market optimism in recent weeks.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.20% to 91.735.

For the Loonie

It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Housing start figures are due out later today.

Barring particularly dire numbers, however, we don’t expect too much influence from the stats.

Expect market risk sentiment and COVID-19 vaccine news to remain the key areas of focus.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.10% to C$1.2521 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

European Equities: A Quiet Day Ahead Leaves Geopolitics and COVID-19 in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Tuesday, 20th April

German PPI (MoM) (Mar)

Thursday, 22nd April

Deposit Facility Rate (Apr)

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr)

Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash

Friday, 23rd April

French Manufacturing PMI (Apr) Prelim

French Services PMI (Apr) Prelim

German Manufacturing PMI (Apr) Prelim

German Services PMI (Apr) Prelim

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Apr) Prelim

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Apr) Prelim

Eurozone Services PMI (Apr) Prelim

ECB President Lagarde Speaks

The Majors

It was a bullish end to the week for the European majors on Friday.

Following on from a relatively bullish day on Thursday, the DAX30 rallied by 1.34%, to lead the way. The CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 saw more modest gains of 0.85% and 0.90% respectively.

Positive stats from China and the U.S provided support for the European majors at the end of the week.

Corporate earnings delivered further upside for German autos and the DAX30. At the end of the week, Daimler released prelim Q12021 results. Favorable sales momentum at Mercedes driven by strong demand, from China in particular, delivered better than expected results.

The Stats

It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar on Friday.

Finalized inflation figures and trade data for the Eurozone were in focus.

Eurozone Inflation

In March, the annual rate of inflation accelerated from 0.9% to 1.3%. The annual rate of inflation had stood at 0.7% in March 2020.

According to Eurostat,

  • The lowest annual rates of inflation were registered in Greece (-2.0%), Portugal, Malta, Ireland, and Slovenia (all 0.1%).
  • Luxembourg registered the highest annual rate of inflation at 2.5%.
  • The highest contribution to the annual rate of inflation came from services (+0.57 percentage points).
  • There were also contributions from energy (+0.43 pp), food, alcohol, & tobacco (+0.24 pp), and non-energy industrial goods (+0.09 pp).

Trade

In February, the Eurozone’s trade surplus widened from €11.0bn to €17.7bn.

According to Eurostat,

  • Exports of goods to the rest of the world fell by 5.5% to €178.6bn when compared with Feb-2020.
  • Imports from the rest of the world declined by 2.7% to €161.0bn when compared with Feb-2020.
  • Intra-euro area trade rose by 1.7% to €164.8bn when compared with Feb-2020.

From the U.S

It was another busy day, with key stats including consumer sentiment figures. Housing sector data was also in focus but had a muted impact on the majors.

According to April prelim figures, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 84.9 to 86.5.

While up by just 1.9% month-on-month, the index was up 20.5% year-on-year.

Supporting the increase was a 4.5% rise in the Current Economic Conditions Index from 93.0 to 97.2. Year-on-year, the index was up 30.8%.

Holding steady in April, was the Index of Consumer Expectations that remained unchanged at 79.7. Year-on-year, the index was up 13.7%.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Friday. Daimler and Volkswagen rallied 2.79% and by 2.65% respectively, with Continental gaining 2.33%. BMW saw a more modest 0.12% gain on the day.

It was also a bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rose by 1.83%, with Commerzbank ending the day up by 1.23%.

From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas rallied by 2.20%, with Soc Gen gaining 1.27%. Credit Agricole saw a more modest 0.11% rise on the day.

It was also a bullish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV rose by 1.46%, with Renault rallying by 2.29%.

Air France-KLM found much-needed support, rising by 2.24%, with Airbus SE gaining 0.82%.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive week in the red the VIX on Friday, marking a 6th daily fall in 8-sessions.

Following on from a 2.47% fall on Thursday, the VIX fell by 1.93% to end the day at 16.25.

The Dow and the S&P500 rose by 0.48% and by 0.36% respectively, with the NASDAQ gaining 0.10%.

VIX 190421 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the European economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the European majors with direction.

There are also no stats from the U.S to influence later in the day.

The lack of stats will leave the majors in the hands of geopolitics and COVID-19 vaccine updates from the weekend. Bullish sentiment towards the earnings season should provide some support going into the week, however.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down by 104 points, while the DAX was up by 23.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – April 19th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, slid by 6.29% on Sunday. Following on from a 2.27% decline on Saturday, Bitcoin ended the week down by 6.43% to $56,172.0.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $60,279.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $61,197, Bitcoin tumbled to an early morning intraday low $50,500.0.

The extended sell-off saw Bitcoin fall through the major support levels

Finding support at the 23.6% FIB of $50,473, Bitcoin broke back through the third major resistance level at $55,104 to end the day at $56,100 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact in spite of the slide back to $50,500 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a bearish day on Sunday.

Crypto.com Coin tumbled by 15.14% to lead the way down, with Bitcoin Cash SV sliding by 12.39%.

Litecoin (-8.92%) and Ripple’s XRP (-8.28%) also saw heavy losses.

Binance Coin (-6.24%), Cardano’s ADA (-6.50%), Chainlink (-2.17%), Ethereum (-3.35%), and Polkadot (-5.14%) saw relatively modest losses on the day.

It was also a mixed week for the majors in the week ending 18th April.

Binance Coin slid by 8.23%, with Crypto.com Coin falling by 5.08% to join Bitcoin in the red.

It was a bullish week for the rest of the majors, however.

Bitcoin Cash SV jumped by 25.25% to lead the way, with Polkadot rallying by 15.72%.

Cardano’s ADA (+1.32%), Ethereum (+4.23%), Litecoin (+8.68%), and Ripple’s XRP (+4.67%) also ended the week in positive territory.

In the week, the crypto total market rose to a Friday high $2,305bn before sliding to a Sunday low $1,755bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,019bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 56.61% before falling to a Saturday low 51.37%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 52.52%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.81% to $56,625.1. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $55,709.0 before rising to a high $56,666.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Polkadot (-0.77%) and Ripple’s XRP (-0.55%) saw red to buck the trend early on.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Chainlink was up by 3.69% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $55,650 to bring the first major resistance level at $60,801 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $60,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $60,279.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at Wednesday’s swing hi $64,829.0 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $65,429.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $55,650 pivot would bring the first major support level at $51,022 and the 23.6% FIB of $50,473 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$50,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $45,871.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – April 19th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum fell by 3.35% on Sunday. Following on from a 4.45% decline on Saturday, Ethereum ended the week up by 4.23% to $2,241.45.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high $2,341.00 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,439, Ethereum slid to an early morning intraday low $2,000.00.

The extended sell-off saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level at $2,258 and the second major support level at $2,197.

Finding support at the third major support level at $2,016, Ethereum bounced back to end the day at $2,200 levels.

The partial recovery saw Ethereum break back through the second major support level at $2,197.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.60% to $2,228.01. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,254.00 before falling to a low $2,205.01.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $2,194 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2,388.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $2,300 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $2,341.00 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $2,500 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,535.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $2,194 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,047 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of the second major support level at $1,853. The 23.6% FIB of $1,966 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,047

Pivot Level: $2,194

First Major Resistance Level: $2,388

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,976

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1,606

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,023

Litecoin

Litecoin slid by 8.92% on Sunday.  Following on from a 2.51% fall from Saturday, Litecoin ended the week up by 8.68% to $274.20.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $305.33 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $325, Litecoin slid to an early morning intraday low $241.09.

The sell-off saw Litecoin fall through the first major support level at $287 and the second major support level at $273.

More significantly, Litecoin also tumbled through the 23.6% FIB of $262.

Finding late morning support, Litecoin moved back through the 23.6% FIB and the second major support level to end the day at $274 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 1.12% to $271.13. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $275.62 before falling to a low $267.69.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move back the $274 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $306.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break back through to $300 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $305.33 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a bounce back, Litecoin could test resistance at $320 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $338.

Failure to move back through the $274 pivot level would bring the 23.6% FIB of $262 and the first major support level at $242 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the the second major support level at $209. The 38.2% FIB of $217 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $242

Pivot Level: $274

First Major Resistance Level: $306

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $250

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $207

62% FIB Retracement Level: $138

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP slid by 8.28% on Sunday. Following a 0.62% decline from Saturday, Ripple’s XRP ended the week up by 4.67% to $1.41371.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.56714 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.6802, Ripple’s XRP slid to an early morning intraday low $1.15000.

Ripple’s XRP slid through the day’s major support levels before finding support.

More significantly, Ripple’s XRP also fell through the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 and the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807.

Steering clear of sub-$1.00 levels, Ripple’s XRP bounced back to end the day at $1.41 levels.

The partial recovery had seen Ripple’s XRP break back through the third major support level at $1.1848 and the second major support level at $1.3960.

Ripple’s XRP also broke back through the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 2.29% to $1.38138. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $1.43776 before falling to a low $1.36000.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall back through the $1.3770 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $1.6039 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $1.80 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.7941.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $1.3770 pivot would bring the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807 and the first major support level at $1.1868 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$1.00 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.9598.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1.1868

Pivot Level: $1.3770

First Major resistance Level: $1.6039

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

The Week Ahead – Economic Data, Monetary Policy, and Geopolitics in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with 45 stats in focus in the week ending 23rd April. In the week prior, 72 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

After a quiet 1st half of the week, the weekly jobless claims figures on Thursday will influence.

Expect any increase in claims to test market risk appetite.

On Friday, prelim private sector PMI figures for April wrap things up. The services PMI will have the greatest impact on the markets.

In the week ending 16th April, the Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.66% to 91.556.

For the EUR:

It’s a quiet start to the week on the economic data front.

German wholesale inflation figures for March are due out on Tuesday. Increased market sensitivity to inflation will give the numbers greater attention than usual.

The focus will then shift to prelim April private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone on Friday.

On the monetary policy front, the ECB will also deliver its first monetary policy decision of the quarter on Thursday.

While the ECB is expected to stand pat on interest rates, updates on the bond purchasing program will be the main area of interest.

From the ECB press conference, views on the economic outlook will also need monitoring on the day.

At the end of the week, ECB President Lagarde will be back in action. Following the Thursday press conference, however, there shouldn’t be too many surprises.

The EUR ended the week up by 0.66% to $1.1977.

For the Pound:

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

In the first half of the week, employment, wages, and inflation figures will be in focus.

Expect March claimant counts and annual rate of inflation to be the key drivers.

The focus will then shift to March retail sales and prelim private sector PMIs for April on Friday.

Expect the retail sales and services PMI figures to be the key drivers at the end of the week.

On the monetary policy front, BoE Gov. Bailey is scheduled to speak on Wednesday. Expect any views on the economic outlook or monetary policy to influence.

The Pound ended the week up by 0.53% to $1.3779.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

On Wednesday, March inflation figures will be in focus ahead of house price figures on Thursday.

Expect the inflation figures to be the key driver, with focus likely to be on the core inflation figures.

On the monetary policy front, the BoC is also in action on Wednesday. With the BoC expected to stand pat on policy, the monetary policy report will be the main area of focus.

The Loonie ended the week up 0.22% to C$1.2503 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead.

Prelim retail sales figures are due out on Wednesday. With consumption key to the economic recovery, expect plenty of sensitivity to the numbers.

On the monetary policy front, the RBA meeting minutes on Tuesday will also influence.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 1.46% to $0.7734.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead.

1st quarter inflation figures are due out on Wednesday.

Expect sensitivity to the numbers, with the markets having little else to consider in the week.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 1.55% to $0.7142.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is also a relatively quiet week ahead.

Early in the week, March trade data and finalized industrial production figures for February are due out.

Expect the trade data to have the greatest influence in the week.

At the end of the week, inflation figures for March and private sector PMIs will also draw interest. Expect the private sector PMI and services PMI in particular to have the greatest influence.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.79% to ¥108.80 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead.

There were no material stats to provide the broader financial markets with direction in the week.

While there are no stats to consider, the PBoC is in action on Tuesday. The markets are expecting the PBoC to leave 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates unchanged.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 0.49% to CNY6.5206 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

U.S-China and U.S-Russia relations are the main areas of focus in the week ahead.

The markets will also need to monitor any chatter from Iran, however.

Corporate Earnings

There are some big names on the docket in the week ahead…

From the U.S:

IBM (Mon), Coca Cola (Mon), Procter & Gamble (Tue), Netflix (Tue), Johnson & Johnson (Tue), and American Express (Fri).

From the EU:

Nestle (Thurs), Renault (Thurs), Daimler (Fri), and Software AG (Fri).

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – April 18th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 2.27% on Saturday. Following on from a 2.98% decline on Friday, Bitcoin ended the day at $59,927.0.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $62,450.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $63,226, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $59,662.0.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $59,711 before briefly revisiting $60,900 levels.

A bearish end to the day, however, saw Bitcoin fall back to end the day at sub-$60,000 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact supported by the latest move through to $64,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Saturday.

Polkadot rallied by 3.87% to lead the way, with Binance Coin rising by 1.08%.

It was a bearish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Bitcoin Cash SV slid by 10.95% to lead the way down.

Cardano’s ADA (-3.18%), Chainlink (-4.89%), Ethereum (-4.45%), and Litecoin (-2.51%) also struggled.

Crypto.com Coin (-0.08%) and Ripple’s XRP (-0.62%) saw modest losses on the day, however.

In the current week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,959bn before rising to a Friday high $2,305bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,136bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 56.61% before falling to a Saturday low 51.38%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 52.85%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.46% to $60,205.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $59,934.0 before rising to a high $60,279.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a bullish start to the day.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 1.42% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 180421 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the pivot level at $60,680 to bring the first major resistance level at $61,697 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from $61,500 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Saturday’s high $62,450.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at Wednesday’s swing hi $64,829.0 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $63,468.

Failure to move through the $60,680 pivot would bring the first major support level at $58,909 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$58,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $57,892.

U.S Mortgage Rates Fall for a Second Consecutive Week

Mortgage rates fell for the second time in 9-weeks in the week ending 15th April. Following a 5-basis points decline from the week prior, 30-year fixed rates fell by 9 basis points to 3.04%.

Compared to this time last year, 30-year fixed rates were down by 27 basis points.

30-year fixed rates were still down by 190 basis points since November 2018’s last peak of 4.94%.

Notably, however, it was just the seventh plus 3% week since July of last year.

Economic Data from the Week

It was quieter first half of the week on the U.S economic calendar.

On the economic data front, March inflation figures were in focus early in the week.

Following the FED’s assurances of unwavering policy support, however, the stats had a muted impact on yields.

In March, the annual core rate of inflation accelerated from 1.3% to 1.6%, rising above a forecasted 1.5%.

Month-on-month, core consumer prices increased by 0.3%, with consumer prices rising by 0.6%.

Freddie Mac Rates

The weekly average rates for new mortgages as of 15th April were quoted by Freddie Mac to be:

  • 30-year fixed rates fell by 9 basis point to 3.04% in the week. This time last year, rates had stood at 3.31%. The average fee held steady at 0.7 points.
  • 15-year fixed declined by 7 basis points to 2.35% in the week. Rates were down by 45 basis points from 2.80% a year ago. The average fee increased from 0.6 points to 0.7 points.
  • 5-year fixed rates slid by 12 basis points to 2.80%. Rates were down by 54 basis points from 3.34% a year ago. The average fee rose from 0.1 point to 0.4 points.

According to Freddie Mac,

  • The economy is improving on the demand side and on the supply side, while a variety of goods and materials remain scarce.
  • As a result of this imbalance, pricing pressures are building and causing inflation to rise.
  • Despite the pause in mortgage rates recently, we expect them to increase modestly for the remainder of the year.

Mortgage Bankers’ Association Rates

For the week ending 9th April, the rates were:

  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed to conforming loan balances decreased from 3.36% to 3.27%. Points decreased from 0.43 to 0.33 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates backed by FHA decreased from 3.36% to 3.24%. Points rose from 0.36 to 0.40 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances decreased from 3.41% to 3.35%. Points decreased from 0.41 to 0.34 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

Weekly figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, which is a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell by 3.7% in the week ending 9th April. In the week prior, the index had fallen by 5.1%.

The Refinance Index declined by 5.0% and was 31% lower than the same week a year ago. The index had also fallen by 5% in the week prior.

In the week ending 9th April, the refinance share of mortgage activity decreased from 60.3% to 59.2%. In the previous week, the share had declined from 60.6% to 60.3%.

According to the MBA,

  • Purchase and refinance applications fell, with most of the pullback coming earlier in the week, when rates were higher.
  • Treasury yields started last week high – close to the prior week’s level at over 1.7% before falling 6 basis points.
  • Refinance activity has now decreased for nine of the past 10-weeks, as rates have gone from 2.92% to 3.27% over the period.
  • Last week’s index level was the lowest in over a year, as mortgage rates continue to trend higher.
  • Many borrowers have either refinanced at lower rates or are unwilling – or unable – to refinance at current rates.
  • A third straight week of declining purchase activity is a sign that rising home prices and tight supply are constraining home sales.
  • Purchase applications were still above last year’s pandemic-impacted low point but fell behind the level of activity seen in the same week in 2019.

For the week ahead

It’s a quiet first half of the week on the U.S economic calendar. There are no material stats from the U.S to influence yields.

The lack of stats will leave geopolitics and COVID-19 in focus early in the week.

European Equities: A Week in Review – 16/04/21

The Majors

It was yet another bullish week for the European majors in the week ending 16th April, following relatively modest gains from the week prior.

The CAC40 rallied by 1.91%, with the DAX30 and the EuroStoxx600 seeing gains of 1.48% and by 1.20% respectively.

Economic data from the U.S and China continued to support the unfaltering market optimism. Optimism delivered support in spite of COVID-19 vaccine woes and the resurfacing of geopolitical tensions.

In the week, the U.S introduced fresh sanctions on Russia, while U.S – China relations were also back in the spotlight.

Ultimately, however, positive corporate earnings, together with upbeat stats delivered the upside in the week.

The Stats

It was a busy week on the economic data front.

Key stats included Eurozone retail sales, industrial production, and trade data along with economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone.

Retail sales rose by more than expected in February, while industrial production hit reverse.

Economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone were also a disappointment. Sentiment waned in both Germany and the Eurozone.

For Germany, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell from 76.6 to 70.7, while the Eurozone’s declined from 74.0 to 66.3.

At the end of the week, the Eurozone’s trade surplus widened from €11.0bn to €17.7bn, delivering a positive spin at the end of the week.

Throughout the week, inflation figures for member states and the Eurozone were aligned with prelim figures. With the ECB unlikely to shift on policy anytime soon, the pickup in inflationary pressures had a muted impact on the majors.

From the U.S

It was a busier week on the economic data front.

Key stats included inflation, retail sales, and jobless claims figures, which were market risk positive.

A pick in inflationary pressure failed to spook the markets. In spite of the annual core rate of inflation accelerating to 1.6%, the FED’s assurance of unwavering support remained key.

In the week ending 9th April, initial jobless claims decreased from 769k to 576k. Economists had forecast a decline to 700k.

In the month of March, retail sales jumped by 9.8%, reversing a 2.7% decline from February. Core retail sales rose by 8.4%, reversing a 2.5% decline from February.

Economists had forecast retail sales to rise by 5.9% and for core retail sales to increase by 5.0%.

From the manufacturing sector, the Philly FED Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.8 to 50.2 in April. Economists had forecast a sharper decline to 42.0, however.

At the end of the week, stats were also skewed to the positive. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 84.9 to 86.5 in April, according to prelim figures.

From Elsewhere

Economic data from China also delivered support in the week. Trade data impressed at the start of the week, with GDP, retail sales, unemployment, and industrial production numbers supporting demand for riskier assets at the end of the week.

The Market Movers

From the DAX, it was a bullish week for the auto sector. Continental rallied by 5.81%, with Daimler and Volkswagen seeing solid gains of 3.56% and 2.87% respectively. BMW ended the week with more modest 0.41% rise.

It was another mixed week for the banking sector, however. Deutsche Bank rose by 1.16%, while Commerzbank fell by 1.80%.

From the CAC, it was a mixed week for the banks. Credit Agricole fell by 0.56%, while BNP Paribas and Soc Gen ending the week with gains of 2.80% and 2.24% respectively.

It was a bullish week for the French auto sector. Renault rose by 0.89%, with Stellantis NV ending the week up by 2.27%.

Air France-KLM slid by 7.78% on news of the planned ban of domestic flights, while Airbus rose by 2.55%.

On the VIX Index

It was a 4th consecutive week in the red for the VIX in the week ending 16th April. Following on from a 3.69% decline from the previous week, the VIX fell by 2.64% to end the week at 16.25.

3-days in the red from 5 delivered the downside in the week for the VIX.

For the week, the NASDAQ ended the week up by 1.09%, with the Dow and the S&P500 gaining by 1.18% and 1.37% respectively.

VIX 170421 Weekly Chart

The Week Ahead

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

The markets will have to wait until Tuesday for German wholesale inflation figures. With inflationary pressures expected to pickup near-term before easing back, the numbers should have limited impact on the majors, however.

The focus will then shift to prelim April private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

Expect plenty of interest in the numbers as the markets look for a continued improvement in private sector conditions.

New orders, employment, and optimism will likely be key areas of focus across both the manufacturing and services sectors.

While the stats will influence, the ECB monetary policy decision and press conference will also be key.

Following the ECB’s vow to ramp up bond purchases, the latest numbers along with the ECB’s economic outlook will be key.

From the U.S, the weekly jobless claims on Thursday and prelim private sector PMIs on Friday will also influence.

Away from the economic calendar, corporate earnings, COVID-19 news, and geopolitics will also need monitoring.

On the geopolitical risk front, the U.S along with China, Russia, and Iran remain areas of focus.

The Weekly Wrap – Economic Data, COVID-19 Vaccine News, and Geopolitics Were in Focus

The Stats

It was a busy week on the economic calendar, in the week ending 16th April.

A total of 72 stats were monitored, following 36 stats from the week prior.

Of the 72 stats, 38 came in ahead forecasts, with 21 economic indicators coming up short of forecasts. There were 13 stats that were in line with forecasts in the week.

Looking at the numbers, 36 of the stats reflected an upward trend from previous figures. Of the remaining 36 stats, 23 reflected a deterioration from previous.

For the Greenback, it was a second consecutive weekly loss. In the week ending 16th April, the Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.66% to 91.556. In the previous week, the Dollar had fallen by 0.90% to 92.182.

The Dollar remained under pressure following the dovish FOMC meeting minutes from the week prior. This was in spite of a pickup in inflationary pressures, with FED Chair Powell’s reassurances resonating across the markets.

Out of the U.S

It was a busier week on the economic data front.

Key stats included inflation, retail sales, and jobless claims figures, which were market risk positive.

Early in the week, a pick in inflationary pressure failed to spook the markets. In spite of the annual core rate of inflation accelerating to 1.6%, the FED’s assurance of unwavering support was key.

In the week ending 9th April, initial jobless claims decreased from 769k to 576k. Economists had forecast a decline to 700k.

In the month of March, retail sales jumped by 9.8%, reversing a 2.7% decline from February. Core retail sales rose by 8.4%, reversing a 2.5% decline from February.

Economists had forecast retail sales to rise by 5.9% and for core retail sales to increase by 5.0%.

From the manufacturing sector, the Philly FED Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.8 to 50.2 in April. Economists had forecast a sharper decline to 42.0, however.

At the end of the week, stats were also skewed to the positive. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 84.9 to 86.5 in April, according to prelim figures.

In the equity markets, the NASDAQ rose by 1.09%, with the Dow and the S&P500 gaining 1.18% and 1.37% respectively.

Corporate earnings supported the indexes in the week.

Out of the UK

It was a relatively busy week.

Industrial and manufacturing production, trade, and GDP figures were in focus in the week.

It was a mixed set of numbers for the Pound.

While industrial and manufacturing production partially recovered from declines in January, trade data disappointed. Manufacturing production increased by 1.3% in February, after having fallen by 2.3% in January.

The UK’s trade deficit widened from £12.59bn to £16.44bn in February. While exports to the EU picked up, it was with the rest of the world that led to the sharp widening.

In February, the UK’s trade deficit with non-EU countries widened from £4.46bn to £10.73bn.

GDP numbers also disappointed. The economy grew by just 0.4% in February, partially recovering from a 2.2% contraction in January.

In the week, the Pound rose by 0.53% to end the week at $1.3779. In the week prior, the Pound had fallen by 0.90% to $1.3707.

The FTSE100 ended the week up by 1.50%, following a 2.65% loss from the previous week.

Out of the Eurozone

It was a busy week on the economic data front.

Key stats included Eurozone retail sales, industrial production, and trade data along with economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone.

It was a mixed set of numbers for the EUR.

Retail sales rose by more than expected in February, while industrial production hit reverse.

Economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone disappointed Sentiment waned in both Germany and the Eurozone.

For Germany, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell from 76.6 to 70.7, while the Eurozone’s declined from 74.0 to 66.3.

At the end of the week, the Eurozone’s trade surplus widened from €11.0bn to €17.7bn, delivering a positive spin at the end of the week.

Throughout the week, inflation figures for member states and the Eurozone were aligned with prelim figures. The pickup in inflationary pressures delivered EUR support in the week.

For the week, the EUR rose by 0.66% to $1.1977. In the week prior, the EUR had risen by 1.19% to $1.1899.

The CAC40 rallied by 1.91%, with the DAX30 and EuroStoxx600 ending the week with gains of 1.48% and 1.20% respectively.

For the Loonie

It was a quieter week.

Manufacturing sales and wholesale sales figures were in focus in the week.

The stats had a muted impact on the Loonie, however, with market sentiment towards crude oil demand providing support. WTI and Brent ended the week up by 6.42% and by 5.90% respectively.

From the Bank of Canada, the BoC’s business outlook survey reflected a pickup in optimism amongst businesses in Q1. The timing of the survey, however, muted the impact as a pickup in new COVID-19 cases and fresh containment measures were introduced after the survey dates.

In the week ending 16th April, the Loonie rose by 0.22% to C$1.2503. In the week prior, the Loonie had risen by 0.38% to C$1.2530.

Elsewhere

It was a bullish week for the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar.

In the week ending 16th April, the Aussie Dollar rose by 1.46% to $0.7734, with the Kiwi Dollar ending the week up by 1.55% to $0.7142.

For the Aussie Dollar

It was a relatively busy week.

Key stats included business and consumer confidence and employment figures.

It was a mixed set of stats for the Aussie Dollar.

Business confidence softened modestly in March, while consumer sentiment improved in April.

The numbers were Aussie Dollar positive ahead of the all-important employment figures late in the week.

In March, Australia’s unemployment rate fell from 5.8% to 5.6% in spite of a rise in the participation rate. Another marked increase in employment led to the fall in the unemployment rate. It was noteworthy, however, that full employment fell in the month.

For the Kiwi Dollar

It was also a relatively busy week.

Early in the week, business confidence and electronic card retail sales were in focus.

The stats were Kiwi Dollar positive. Business confidence improved in the 1st quarter, with retail sales on the rise after a slide in February.

At the end of the week, the business PMI jumped from 53.4 to an all-time high 63.6 in March. A sharp increase in new orders and production drove the PMI to its all-time high.

On the monetary policy front, the RBNZ was also in action. While holding rates steady, the rate statement tested the Kiwi Dollar mid-week. Talk of a willingness to cut the cash rate further amidst a slowdown in the recovery pegged the Kiwi back.

For the Japanese Yen

It was a quiet week.

There were no material stats to provide the Yen with direction.

The lack of stats left core machinery orders in focus mid-week, which took an unexpected slide in February.

While the numbers drew interest, concerns over a fresh spike in new COVID-19 cases, geopolitics, and a weaker Greenback delivered Yen support.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.79% to ¥108.80 against the U.S Dollar. In the week prior, the Yen had risen by 0.92% to ¥109.67.

Out of China

It was a busy week on the data front.

In the first half of the week trade data impressed, with exports surging by 49.0% and imports by 38.1%.

At the end of the week, GDP and industrial production figures were also in focus.

In the 1st quarter, the China economy expanded by 0.6%, quarter-on-quarter, following 2.6% growth in the 4th quarter. Economists had forecasted growth of 1.5%.

Year-on-year, the economy expanded by 18.3%, versus a forecasted growth of 19.0%. In the 4th quarter, the economy had expanded by 6.5% year-on-year.

Industrial production was up by 14.1% in March, year-on-year, falling short of a forecasted 17.2% rise. In February, industrial production had risen by 35.1%.

Other stats from China included fixed asset investment, unemployment, and retail sales figures.

Fixed asset investment rose by 25.6% year-on-year, coming in ahead of a forecasted 25.0% rise. In February, fixed asset investment had increased by 35.0%.

Retail sales increased by 34.2%, which was better than a forecasted 28%. In February, retail sales had risen by 33.8% year-on-year.

Finally, the unemployment rate fell from 5.5% to 5.3% in March. Economists had forecast for unemployment to hold steady at the end of the quarter.

In the week ending 16th April, the Chinese Yuan rose by 0.49% to CNY6.5206. In the week prior, the Yuan had risen by 0.22% to CNY6.5526.

The CSI300 fell by 1.37%, while the Hang Seng ended the week up by 0.94%.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – April 17th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 2.98% on Friday. Reversing a 0.46% gain from Thursday, Bitcoin ended the day at $61,322.0.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $63,520.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $64,027, Bitcoin slid to a late morning intraday low $60,005.0.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $62,182 and the second major support level at $61,169.

Finding afternoon support, Bitcoin broke back through the second major support level to revisit $62,000 levels before easing back.

In spite of the pullback, Bitcoin avoided a fall back through the second major support level late in the day.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact supported by the latest move through to $64,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Friday.

Bitcoin Cash SV surged by 17.73% to lead the way, with Litecoin rallying by 7.89%.

It was a bearish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Ripple’s XRP slid by 11.92% to lead the way down

Binance Coin (-6.15%), Cardano’s ADA (-4.51%), and Ethereum (-3.59%) also struggled.

Chainlink (-1.40%), Crypto.com Coin (-0.97%), and Polkadot (-1.84%) saw relatively modest losses on the day.

In the current week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,959bn before rising to a Friday high $2,307bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,177bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 56.61% before falling to a Friday low 51.50%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 52.59%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.25% to $61,167.3. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $61,675.0 before falling to a low $61,157.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Bitcoin Cash SV (-2.47%) and Crypto.com Coin (-0.64%) joined Bitcoin in the red to buck the early trend.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 2.09% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move back through the pivot level at $61,616 to bring the first major resistance level at $63,226 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $63,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s high $63,520.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at Wednesday’s swing hi $64,829.0 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $65,131.

Failure to move back through the $61,616 pivot would bring the first major support level at $59,711 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $58,101.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – April 17th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum fell by 3.59% on Friday. Reversing a 3.49% gain from Thursday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,426.64.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high and a new swing hi $2,548.00 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,576, Ethereum slid to an early afternoon intraday low $2,307.21.

The extended sell-off saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level at $2,430 and the second major support level at $2,343.

Steering clear of sub-$2,300 levels, Ethereum broke back through the major support levels before a late pullback.

The pullback saw Ethereum fall back through the first major support level to end the day at $2,426 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 1.40% to $2,460.53. A bullish start to the day saw Ethereum rise from an early morning low $2,426.63 to a high $2,460.53.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall back through the pivot level at $2,427 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2,547.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $2,500 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s new swing hi $2,548.00 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $2,700 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,668.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $2,427 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,307 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$2,200 levels. The second major support level sits at $2,187.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,307

Pivot Level: $2,427

First Major Resistance Level: $2,547

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,976

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1,606

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,023

Litecoin

Litecoin rallied by 7.89% on Friday. Following on from a 2.67% gain from Thursday, Litecoin ended the day at $308.75.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $297.00 before hitting reverse.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $296 before sliding to an early afternoon intraday low $266.34.

The sell-off saw Litecoin fall through the first major support level at $271 before rallying to a late intraday high and a new swing hi $319.94.

Litecoin broke back through the first major resistance level and broke through the second major resistance level at $306.

A late pullback, however, saw Litecoin briefly fall back through the second major resistance level before wrapping up the day at $308 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 2.98% to $317.94. A bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rally from an early morning low $308.76 to a high $318.67.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $298 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $330.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Friday’s swing hi $319.94.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Litecoin could test resistance at $350 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $352.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $298 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $277 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the 23.6% FIB of $250. The second major support level sits at $245.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $277

Pivot Level: $298

First Major Resistance Level: $330

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $250

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $207

62% FIB Retracement Level: $138

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP slid by 11.92% on Friday. Following on from a 4.17% decline on Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $1.54981.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.80892 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.8777, Ripple’s XRP slid to a late morning intraday low $1.42051.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the first major support level at $1.6468 and the second major support level at $1.5343.

Steering clear of sub-$1.40 levels, Ripple’s XRP revisited $1.75 levels before falling back into the deep red.

The sell-off saw Ripple’s XRP fall back through the first major support level to end the day at sub-$1.60 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.86% to $1.56312. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning low $1.5390 before rising to a high $1.56443.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to move through the $1.5931 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $1.7657 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from $1.75 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $1.80 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $2.00 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.9815.

Failure to move through the $1.5941 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 and the first major support level at $1.3772 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$1.30 levels. The second major support level sits at $1.2047.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1.3772

Pivot Level: $1.5931

First Major resistance Level: $1.7657

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Economic Data and Geopolitics Keep the Dollar in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It was a busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar was in action this morning, with economic data from China also in focus.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Business PMI numbers were in focus in the early hours.

In March, the Business PMI increased from 53.4 to an all-time high 63.6.

According to the March survey,

  • A sharp increase in the production sub-index from 58.4 to 66.8 and the new orders sub-index from 58.0 to 72.5 drove the PMI to its all-time high.
  • The employment sub-index saw a more modest rise from 50.2 to 53.5

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.71740 to $0.71767 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.25% to $0.7152.

From China

GDP and March industrial production figures were in focus this morning.

In the 1st quarter, the China economy expanded by 0.6%, quarter-on-quarter, following 2.6% growth in the 4th quarter. Economists had forecasted growth of 1.5%.

Year-on-year, the economy expanded by 18.3%, versus a forecasted growth of 19.0%. In the 4th quarter, the economy had expanded by 6.5% year-on-year.

Industrial production was up by 14.1% in March, year-on-year, falling short of a forecasted 17.2% rise. In February, industrial production had risen by 35.1%.

Other stats from China included fixed asset investment, unemployment, and retail sales figures.

Fixed asset investment rose by 25.6% year-on-year, coming in ahead of a forecasted 25.0% rise. In February, fixed asset investment had increased by 35.0%.

Retail sales increased by 34.2%, which was better than a forecasted 28%. In February, retail sales had risen by 33.8% year-on-year.

Finally, the unemployment rate fell from 5.5% to 5.3% in March. Economists had forecast for unemployment to hold steady at the end of the quarter.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77345 to $0.77241 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.35% to $0.7725.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.08% to ¥108.85 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized April inflation figures for Eurozone are due out later today.

Following finalized numbers from member states in the week, we don’t expect too much influence from the numbers, however.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.12% to $1.1953.

For the Pound

It’s another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats leaves the Pound in the hands of COVID-19 and vaccine news.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.22% to $1.3756.

Across the Pond

It’s another busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Building permit and housing start figures are due out along with prelim consumer sentiment figures for April.

Expect the consumer sentiment figures to have a greater impact on the day.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill will also need monitoring.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.09% to 91.757.

For the Loonie

It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Wholesale sales figures for February are due out later today.

Barring particularly dire numbers, however, we don’t expect too much influence from the stats.

Expect market risk sentiment and COVID-19 vaccine news to remain key areas of focus.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.12% to C$1.2558 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – April 16th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by 0.46% on Thursday. Partially reversing a 0.95% decline from Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $63,196.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to a late morning intraday low $62,000.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $61,204, Bitcoin struck a late intraday high $63,845.0.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $64,727, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$63,200 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact supported by the latest move through to $64,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Thursday.

Ripple’s XRP slid by 4.17% to lead the way down

Binance Coin (-1.36%) and Polkadot (-0.02%) also saw red to buck the trend on the day.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Bitcoin Cash SV rallied by 12.38% to lead the way.

Chainlink (+3.18%), Crypto.com Coin (+3.20%), Ethereum (+3.49%), and Litecoin (+2.67%) also made solid gains.

Cardano’s ADA (+1.93%) and Polkadot (+1.87%) and trailed the front runners, however.

In the current week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,959bn before rising to a Wednesday high $2,259bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,214bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 56.61% before falling to a Thursday low 52.92%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 53.53%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin up by 0.28% to $63,5.037. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $63,083.2 before rising to a high $63,417.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Binance Coin (-0.47%), Cardano’s ADA (-0.06%), and Polkadot (-0.05%) saw red early on.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Crypto.com Coin was up by 1.68% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 160421 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $63,014 to bring the first major resistance level at $64,027 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $64,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at Wednesday’s swing hi $64,829.0 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $64,859.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $63,014 pivot would bring the first major support level at $62,182 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $61,169.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – April 16th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 3.49% on Thursday. Following on from a 5.76% gain on Wednesday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,517.03.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning intraday low $2,401.25 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2,328, Ethereum rallied to a final hour intraday high and a new swing hi $2,546.82.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $2,492 before easing back.

Coming within range of the second major resistance level at $2,551, Ethereum slipped back to end the day at $2,517 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 0.21% to $2,522.26. A bullish start to the day saw Ethereum rise from an early morning low $2,517.03 to a high $2,527.12.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 160421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $2,488 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2,576.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Thursday’s new swing hi $2,546.82.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $2,600 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $2,700 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,634.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $2,488 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,430 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$2,200 levels. The second major support level at $2,343 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,430

Pivot Level: $2,488

First Major Resistance Level: $2,576

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,975

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1,605

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,023

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 2.67% on Thursday. Following on from a 4.14% gain on Wednesday, Litecoin ended the day at $286.18.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $282.80 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the major resistance levels, Litecoin fell to a late morning intraday low $266.01.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $262, Litecoin rallied to a final hour intraday high and a new swing hi $291.25.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $289 before falling back to end the day at $286 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 0.17% to $286.68. A bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rise from an early morning low $286.18 to a high $288.39.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 160421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $281 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $296.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Thursday’s swing hi $291.25.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $300 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Litecoin could test resistance at $315 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $306.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $281 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $271 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer well clear of the second major support level at $256.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $271

Pivot Level: $281

First Major Resistance Level: $296

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $229

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $190

62% FIB Retracement Level: $127

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP slid by 4.17% on Thursday. Reversing a 2.30% rise from Wednesday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $1.75937.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.88353 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2.0210, Ripple’s XRP slid to a late morning intraday low $1.65261.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $1.6004, Ripple’s XRP revisited $1.84 levels before falling back into the red.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.51% to $1.76836. A bullish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise from an early morning low $1.75953 to a high $1.78119.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 160421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall back through the $1.7652 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $1.8777 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $1.80 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $2.00 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.9961.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $1.7652 pivot would bring the first major support level at $1.6468 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426. The second major support level sits at $1.5343.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1.6468

Pivot Level: $1.7652

First Major resistance Level: $1.8777

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

European Equities: Economic Data, Corporate Earnings, and Geopolitics in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Friday, 16th April

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

Eurozone Trade Balance (Feb)

The Majors

It was a bullish day for the European majors on Thursday, with the DAX30 recovering from Wednesday’s slip.

The DAX30 rise by 0.30%, with the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 gaining 0.41% and 0.48% respectively.

Once more the markets brushed aside negative COVID-19 vaccine news, with the markets looking beyond current vaccine woes.

Economic data from the U.S impressed to add support, with the markets expecting impressive earnings this season, adding to the ongoing optimism.

The Stats

It was a relatively busy day on the economic calendar on Thursday.

Finalized inflation figures for France, Germany, and Italy were in focus.

Germany

In Germany, consumer prices increased by 0.5% in March, which was in line with prelim figures. In February, consumer prices had risen by 0.7%. The annual rate of inflation accelerated from 1.3% to 1.7%, which was also in line with prelim figures.

According to Destatis,

  • The prices of services were up 1.6%, with prices of goods rising by 1.9% when compared with a year earlier.
  • Energy product prices were 4.8% higher than a year earlier, with food prices up by 1.6% compared with March 2020.

France

From France, consumer prices were also on the rise, with the annual rate of inflation picking up from 0.6% to 1.1%, which was in line with prelim figures. Month-on-month, consumer prices rose by 0.6% in March.

According to Insee.fr,

  • Year-on-year, service prices ticked up from 0.8% to 1.1%, with deflationary pressures for manufactured goods softening from -0.4% to -0.2%.

Italy

In Italy, the annual rate of inflation saw a more modest uptick from 0.6% to 0.8%, which was also in line with prelim figures. Month-on-month, consumer prices increased by 0.6% in March.

From the U.S

It was a busy day, with key stats including jobless claims, retail sales, and Philly FED Manufacturing numbers.

In the week ending 9th April, initial jobless claims decreased from 769k to 576k. Economists had forecast a decline to 700k.

Retail sales also impressed, after the disappointing figures from February.

In the month of March, retail sales jumped by 9.8%, reversing a 2.7% decline from February. Core retail sales rose by 8.4%, reversing a 2.5% decline from February.

Economists had forecast retail sales to rise by 5.9% and for core retail sales to increase by 5.0%.

From the manufacturing sector, the Philly FED Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.8 to 50.2 in April. Economists had forecast a sharper decline to 42.0, however.

Other stats included NY Empire State Manufacturing, industrial production, and business inventory numbers. These stats had a relatively muted impact on the European majors.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Thursday. Volkswagen rallied by 2.26%, with BMW and Continental rising by 1.61% and by 1.22% respectively. Daimler saw a more modest 0.41% gain on the day.

It was a bearish day for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank fell by 0.97%, with Commerzbank ending the day down by 1.93%.

From the CAC, it was a bearish day for the banks. Credit Agricole fell by 1.19%, with BNP Paribas and Soc Gen declining by 0.42% and by 0.92% respectively.

It was also a bearish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV slipped by 0.05%, with Renault falling by 0.62%.

Air France-KLM continued to see red, falling by 1.44%, while Airbus SE rallied by 2.61%.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the red the VIX on Thursday, marking a 5th daily fall in 7-sessions.

Reversing a 2.04% gain from Wednesday, the VIX fell by 2.47% to end the day at 16.57.

The NASDAQ and the S&P500 rose by 1.31% and by 1.11% respectively, with the Dow gaining 0.90%.

VIX 160421 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the European economic calendar. Finalized March inflation figures for the Eurozone are due out alongside trade data for the Eurozone.

Barring a marked upward revision, we would expect the trade data to have a greater influence on the European majors.

Later in the day, economic data from the U.S will also influence, with prelim consumer sentiment figures for April in focus.

Ahead of the European session, economic data from China will set the tone early in the day.

Away from the economic calendar, the markets will also need to monitor the news wires as U.S tensions with China and Russia rise.

On the corporate earnings front, Morgan Stanley is due to release results later in the day.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 10 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR Finds Support after Finalized Member State Inflation Figures

It was a busier start to the day on the Eurozone economic calendar today. Finalized March inflation figures for France, Germany, and Italy were in focus.

Inflation

Germany

In Germany, consumer prices increased by 0.5% in March, which was in line with prelim figures. In February, consumer prices had risen by 0.7%. The annual rate of inflation accelerated from 1.3% to 1.7%, which was also in line with prelim figures.

According to Destatis,

  • The prices of services were up 1.6%, with prices of goods rising by 1.9% when compared with a year earlier.
  • Energy product prices were 4.8% higher than a year earlier, with food prices up by 1.6% compared with March 2020.

France

From France, consumer prices were also on the rise, with the annual rate of inflation picking up from 0.6% to 1.1%, which was in line with prelim figures. Month-on-month, consumer prices rose by 0.6% in March.

According to Insee.fr,

  • Year-on-year, service prices ticked up from 0.8% to 1.1%, with deflationary pressures for manufactured goods softening from -0.4% to -0.2%.

Italy

In Italy, the annual rate of inflation saw a more modest uptick from 0.6% to 0.8%, which was also in line with prelim figures. Month-on-month, consumer prices increased by 0.6% in March.

Market Impact

Ahead of the inflation figures, the EUR had fallen to a pre-stat low and current day low $1.19699 before finding support. Through the morning, the EUR bounced back to strike a pre-release high $1.19780.

In response to the stats, the EUR fell to a post-stat low $1.19726 before rising to a post-stat and current day high $1.19902.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.19819.

Up Next

A busy U.S economic calendar, with U.S retail sales, jobless claims, and Philly FED Manufacturing figures to consider.

U.S Jobless Claims and Retail Sales Put the Greenback in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It was a quieter start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action this morning.

For the Aussie Dollar

Employment figures were in focus this morning.

According to the ABS,

  • The unemployment rate fell from 5.8% to 5.6% in March, while the participation rate rose from 66.1% to 66.3%.
  • In March, employment increased by 70,700 following an 88,700 rise in February. Economists had forecast a more modest 35,000 increase.
  • Full employment declined by 20,800, however, partially reversing an 89,100 rise from February.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77377 to $0.77253 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.09% to $0.7721.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.05% to ¥108.88 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.10% to $0.7148.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized April inflation figures for Germany, France, and Italy are due out later today.

Barring a marked upward revision from prelim figures, however, we don’t expect the numbers to influence.

Away from the economic calendar, news updates on COVID-19 and vaccination rates will continue to influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.04% to $1.1975.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats leaves market sentiment towards the latest easing of lockdown measures in focus along with next steps.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.03% to $1.3775.

Across the Pond

It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar. Retail sales, jobless claims, and Philly FED Manufacturing PMI numbers are in focus.

Industrial production, business inventories, and NY Empire State manufacturing numbers are also due out. We don’t expect these stats to have an impact on the broader market, however.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to 91.671.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Manufacturing sales figures for February are due out later today.

Barring particularly dire numbers, however, we don’t expect too much influence from the stats.

Expect market risk sentiment and economic data from the U.S to have a greater impact market risk sentiment and the Loonie.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.01% to C$1.2520 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

European Equities: Corporate Earnings and Economic Data from the U.S in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Thursday, 15th April

German CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

French CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

French HICP (MoM) (Mar) Final

Italian CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

Friday, 16th April

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

Eurozone Trade Balance (Feb)

The Majors

It was a mixed day for the European majors on Wednesday.

The DAX30 fell by 0.17%, while the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 gained 0.40% and 0.19% respectively.

Corporate earnings results delivered support to the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600, with LVMH announcing record high sales.

Positive bank earnings results from the U.S also provided support. Results on Wednesday muted the news of the U.S hitting pause on the roll-out of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine over blood clot concerns.

For the DAX, the talk of downward revisions to growth forecasts weighed mid-week, however.

The Stats

It was a busier day on the economic calendar on Wednesday.

Industrial production figures for the Eurozone and finalized inflation figures from Spain were in focus.

In February, industrial production across the Eurozone fell by 1.0%, reversing a 0.8% increase from January. Economists had forecast a 1.1% fall.

According to Eurostat,

  • Production of capital goods fell by 1.9%, energy by 1.2%, durable consumer goods by 1.1%, and intermediate goods by 0.7%.
  • Non-durable consumer goods production fell by a more modest 0.1% in the month.
  • By member state, France (-4.8%), Malta (-3.8%), and Greece (-2.5%) registered the largest monthly declines.
  • Ireland recorded the largest increase, rising by 4.2% in February.

Compared with February 2020, industrial production was down by 1.6%. In January, production had been up by 0.1% year-on-year.

  • The production of non-durable consumer goods slid by 4.3% when compared with February 2020.
  • Capital goods production (-2.2%) and energy production (-1.5%) were also a drag on the headline number, year-on-year.
  • While the production of intermediate goods slipped by 0.1%, the production of durable consumer goods rose by 0.7%.
  • Malta (-10.9%), Estonia (-8.9%), and France (-6.4%) registered the largest decreases when compared with February 2020.
  • By contrast, Ireland (+41.4%) and Lithuania (+9.7%) registered the largest increases year-on-year.

On the inflation front, Spain’s annual rate of inflation accelerated to 1.3% in March, which was in line with prelim figures. In February, inflation had stalled.

The Harmonized Index for Consumer Prices increased by 1.2% in March, which was also in line with prelim figures. In February, the Index had fallen by 0.1%.

From the U.S

It was a relatively quiet day, with economic data limited to import and export price index figures.

The stats had a muted impact on the majors, however.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bearish day for the auto sector on Wednesday. BMW slid by 1.62%, with Daimler falling by 0.82%. Continental and Volkswagen saw relatively modest losses of 0.44% and 0.30% respectively.

It was a bullish day for the banks, however, with U.S corporate earnings results delivering support. Deutsche Bank rose by 0.72%, with Commerzbank ending the day up by 0.89%.

From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole rose by 0.66% and by 0.64% respectively. Soc Gen led the way, however, gaining 1.09%.

It was a mixed day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV fell by 0.63%, while Renault rose by 1.25%.

Air France-KLM followed Tuesday’s 5.04% slide with a 2.06% loss, while Airbus SE recovered a 1.50% loss with a 1.85% gain.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the green the VIX on Wednesday, marking a 2nd daily gain in 6-sessions.

Reversing a 1.54% fall from Tuesday, the VIX rose by 2.04% to end the day at 16.99.

The NASDAQ and the S&P500 fell by 0.99% and by 0.41% respectively, while the Dow rose by 0.16%.

VIX 150421 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the European economic calendar. Finalized March inflation figures for France, Germany, and Italy are due out.

Barring a marked upward revision, however, we don’t expect the numbers to provide the majors with direction.

Later in the day, economic data from the U.S will influence, however.

Key stats include the weekly jobless claims, retail sales, and Philly FED Manufacturing PMI numbers.

Other stats due out of the U.S include NY Empire State Manufacturing, business inventory, and industrial production figures. We don’t expect too much influence from these stats, however.

On the day, corporate earnings will also be in focus. Bank of America, BlackRock, Citigroup, and PepsiCo are amongst the big names announcing results later in the day.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 63 points, while the DAX was down by 15 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.