Bitcoin Dips Early, but still has $10,000 in Sight

Bitcoin gained 1.73% on Saturday, reversing Friday’s 0.57% fall, to end the day at $9,860.2.

The bulls failed to pull Bitcoin through to $10,000 for yet another day, making it a 3rd consecutive day that Bitcoin came within $200 of the next milestone in Bitcoin’s recovery.

A morning low $9,685 held well above the day’s first major support level of $9,547.7 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $9,173.3, continuing to support the bullish trend formed back on 6th April, with Bitcoin breaking through the day’s first major resistance level at $9,697.83 and second major resistance level at $9,853.17 to a new swing hi $9,999 in the middle part of the day before easing back by the day’s end.

Falling just $1 short of the magical $10,000 will have contributed to a pullback, though there has been little negative news to suggest a major reversal in the coming days, which would support a relatively quick run through to $11,000 levels in the coming weeks.

The Bitcoin Cash fork will perhaps complicate matters for Bitcoin in the coming week, with the hard fork expected to deliver material enhancements that will ultimately test Bitcoin’s position at the top and the current support that it gets from the Bitcoin bulls.

Bitcoin has certainly lagged Bitcoin Cash since the beginning of April and, while few are expecting the creation of a new coin from the Bitcoin Cash hard fork, the Bitcoin Cash rally has drawn in buyers and has certainly left Bitcoin behind, which could lead to a Bitcoin bounce back once the hard fork hits.

Direction post 15th May’s hard fork will certainly define the year for both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, a continued rally in Bitcoin Cash likely to bring down the curtain on Bitcoin and its role as an alternative to fiat money, assuming that the Bitcoin community and core developers are unable to align and deliver a golden egg.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 0.88% to $9,774.9, with a start of the day $9,964 high coming up short of the $10,000 level once more, leading to a pullback through to a morning low $9,766.

The moves through the early part of the day have left major support and resistance levels untested and, with Bitcoin continuing to face stern resistance at around the $10,000 level, the Bitcoin bulls may need to bide their time.

For the day ahead, a move through to $10,000 would certainly support a run through the day’s second major resistance level at $10,162.07 to bring $10,500 into play and, in spite of the mornings reversal, a break back into $10,000 levels continues to look on the cards today.

Failing to break through to $10,000 by the late afternoon could test Bitcoin support, Bitcoin having already failed to move through over the three previous sessions. A pullback to $9,750 will bring the day’s first major support level at $9,697.13 into play, while we would expect buyer appetite at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $9,173.3 to be left untested going into the new week.

Elsewhere, NEO bucked the trend early on, up 2.4% at the time of writing, with the rest of the crypto majors taking an early dip, led by a pullback by Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, though it’s unlikely to last.

BTC/USD 06/05/18 Hourly Chart

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U.S Mortgage Rates Pause, but Upward Trend Set to Continue

The recent upward trend in mortgage rates and a downward trend in applications has yet to show any signs of influencing the housing sector, with demand continuing to outstrip supply, supported by a continued tightening in the labor market, though another month of disappointing wage growth figures will be of concern.

Questions will likely begin to circulate on whether mortgage rates at current levels are going to impact the demand side, a softening in demand the near-term risk for the sector. Rising mortgage rates will certainly have an impact, particularly if wage growth doesn’t keep up with inflation.

Freddie Mac rates for new mortgages for the week ending 2nd May were quoted to be:

  • 30-year fixed rate loan eased from 4.58% to 4.55% last week, while up from 4.02% a year ago.
  • 15-year fixed rates rose from 4.02% to 4.03% last week, while up from 3.27% from a year ago.
  • 5-year fixed rates slipped from 3.74% to 3.69% over the week, while up from last year’s 3.13%.

Mortgage Bankers’ Association Rates for last week were quoted to be:

  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed, backed by the FHA increased from 4.71% to 4.81%, hitting the highest level since Jul-11.
  • The average interest rate for 30-year fixed with conforming loan balances rose from 4.73% to $4.80%, hitting the highest level since Sept-13.
  • Average 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances jumped from 4.64% to 4.69%, hitting the highest level since Sep-13.

Weekly figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, which is a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell by 2.5%, following the previous week’s 0.2% fall week-on-week. The fall coming off the back of the late April jump in mortgage rates, driven by a build-up in inflationary pressures.

The Refinance Index also fell, down 4%, following the previous week’s 0.3% fall, with the refinance share of mortgage activity falling further to 36.5% of total applications, the lowest level since Sep-08 and down from the previous week’s 37.2%, the downward trend continuing.

With loan rates hitting levels not seen since 2013, the fall in applications was certainly not a surprise, this week’s marginal decline in mortgage rates providing prospective homeowners with some respite but little relief from the moves over the last few months.

Economic data released through the week continued to support the sentiment towards a pickup in inflationary pressures that saw 10-year Treasury yields hit 3% to drive mortgage rates too late 2013 levels the previous week.

March’s core CPE price index rose by 1.9% year-on-year, providing further cause to expect a more hawkish FED and more aggressive rate path through the second half of the year, while weaker service sector activity going into the 2nd quarter and softer wage growth figures pinned back Treasury yields through the middle of the week. Wage growth will continue to be the area of focus near-term, the unemployment rate now down at 3.9%, soft wage growth reason for the FED to hold off talk of a more aggressive rate path.


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Adding to the downward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields was May’s FOMC Statement released on Wednesday, which held back from committing to a more aggressive rate path while acknowledging that inflation had moved towards the 2% objective.

10-year Treasury yields closed out the week at 2.95%, up 18 basis points over the last month, with April’s weak nonfarm payroll and wage growth figures providing little relief on sentiment towards monetary policy, which will continue to drive mortgage rates northwards.

The U.S administration’s lack of progress on trade talks with China will raise some concerns in the coming week, with economic data out of the U.S in the week ahead including April’s consumer price index numbers that will play a hand in yields through the week.

Negative chatter on trade could see Treasury yields pullback to provide some more respite, though Trump could take a softer stance on the basis that talks are planned to continue, the upward trend in yields expected to resume barring an economic meltdown.

The outlook on borrowing costs remains unchanged, the upward trend expected to add further pressure on disposable incomes in high debt households when factoring in the recent pickup in consumer prices.

Reducing debt levels would offset the upward trend in mortgage rates, with the continued tightening in the labor market expected to place further upward pressure on wages should economic conditions remain favorable, the combination of which will likely continue skewing the housing sector in favor of homeowners.

Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 06/05/18

Bitcoin Cash Hits High

Bitcoin Cash rallied 16.23% on Saturday, following Friday’s 0.24% consolidation, to end the day at $1,763.2.

It was full steam ahead from the get-go, the day’s $1,510 low coming at the start of the day, holding well above the first major support level of $1,462.57 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5.

Through the day’s first major resistance level at $1,557.87 within the first few hours, Bitcoin Cash broke through the second resistance level at $1,600.83 and third major resistance level at $1,696.13 with ease to hit a new swing hi $1,765, with a hold above the day’s third major resistance level by the day’s end a strong bullish signal for the week ahead.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 1.81 to $1,797.0, as the march towards $2,000 continues ahead of the hard fork.

A morning high $1,849.9 came within the first few hours, with Bitcoin Cash testing the day’s first major resistance level of $1,848.8 early on in the day before a pullback to current levels, the day’s $1,754.3 low coming at the start of the day.

For the day ahead, the bulls will have $2,000 in mind and the way things are going, there’s no reason for a pullback later in the day, few likely to be locking in profits with more than a week to go before the much talked about hard fork.

A pullback to sub-$1,700 levels could see some money come off the table, bringing the day’s first major support level at $1,593.8 into play, though with a positive start, the path of least resistance is likely to be onwards and upwards today.

BCH/USD 06/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Litecoin hits $180

Litecoin gained 5.38% on Saturday, following Friday’s 4.47% rise, to end the day at $177.3.

It was the 4th consecutive day of gains, with Litecoin beginning to garner some attention, having had a slow start to the week.

After a range bound start to the day, an afternoon rally saw Litecoin break through the day’s first major resistance level at $173.92 and second major resistance level at $179.65 with ease to hit a new swing hi $182.35 before easing back to $170 levels by the close.

Holding above the day’s first major resistance level supported a bullish start to today, with the day’s major support levels left untested on Saturday.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up 0.55% to $178.7, with a morning high $181.95 coming within the first hour of the day before easing back, with the day’s first major resistance level at $184.09 left untested.

With Litecoin having a range bound start to the day, a morning low $177 leaving the day’s first major support level at $168.77 untested, it looks set up for another bullish day ahead, with a move back through to the day’s high $181.95 supporting a run at the day’s first major resistance level at $184.09, with $190 levels in play should Bitcoin Cash continue on its climb towards $2,000 and Bitcoin break through $10,000.

Failing to move back through to the morning’s high could see Litecoin pullback to test the day’s first major support level at $168.77, though we would expect Litecoin to receive plenty of support at $170 barring a broad-based sell-off across the crypto market.

It’s looking bullish and the bulls will be looking for $200 levels in the coming days.

XRP/USD 06/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Ripple Lags the Majors

Ripple’s XRP gained just 1.51% on Saturday, following Friday’s 0.61% rise, to end the day at $0.90211.

Arange-bound start to the day left the day’s major support and resistance levels untested before an early afternoon move saw Ripple’s XRP break through the day’s first major resistance level at $0.9285 with an intraday high $0.93828 before a late in the day reversal saw Ripple’s XRP test 0.$90 support ahead of the day’s end.

The moves through the day were in contrast to the general market trend, with the majors having been on the rise late in the day.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up just 0.31% to $0.90756, recovering from a start of the day $0.89473 low to hit a morning high $0.92167 before easing back to current levels.

Ripple’s XRP has been seeing plenty of volatility in recent days and this morning is no different, holding on to $0.90 levels key to continue supporting the current bullish trend formed back at 6th April’s swing lo $0.45716.

Unlike its peers, Ripple’s XRP has failed to hit a new swing hi since the 24th April’s $0.96837, while holding at $0.90 levels for the first time since 25th April on Saturday will have given the bulls some hope of a move back through to $1.00 levels in the coming week.

For the day ahead, a move through to $0.93 levels will be needed to draw in buyers on hopes of another Ripple splash, failure to do so likely to bring the day’s first major support level at $0.8542 into play later in the day.

A move is on the cards and much will depend upon the sentiment across the market on whether Ripple’s XRP can catch up with the rest of the clan or go into reverse, investors mindful of holding on to April’s 67% gains.

XRP/USD 06/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Bitcoin Bulls Battling for $10,000 Early

Bitcoin slipped 0.57% on Friday, doing little damage to Thursday’s 5.54 gain, to end the day at $9,703. For the week, Bitcoin was up just 3.22%, a positive start to May, following April’s 33.4% rally, a bullish sign that will likely extend its support across the broader market.

A start of the day slide to a day low $9,542.5 steered clear of the day’s first major support level at $9,314.33 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $9,079, leading Bitcoin to a high $9,848 through the middle part of the day before easing back to $9,700 levels by the day’s end.

The day’s high fell short of the first major resistance level at $10,028.33, with Bitcoin coming close to $10,000 for a 2nd consecutive day.

While Bitcoin saw red on the day, it’s the strong resistance it faces on its approach to $10,000 levels that has been pinning Bitcoin back and the current range supports a break out through to $11,000 levels soon after breaking through to $10,000 levels.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 1.32% to $9,830.6, the prospects of $10,000 now looking bright as Friday afternoon’s rally spills into the weekend.

Any early move through to an intraday high $9,889 tested the day’s first major resistance level at $9,853.17 early before easing back, while holding at $9,800 levels will have been considered a bullish sign early on, Bitcoin having bounced back from a start of the day $9,685 low.

For the bulls, steering clear of the day’s first major support level of $9,547.67 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $9,079 will be key for Bitcoin to finally break through to the elusive $10,000.

Failing to move back through the morning’s high to test the day’s second resistance level at $10,003 could see Bitcoin reverse later in the day, bringing the day’s first major support level into play, though we would expect Bitcoin to steer clear of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $9,079.

The bullish trend formed back at 6th April’s swing lo $6,500.2 remains firmly intact and with talks of Goldman Sachs opening up a cryptocurrency trading platform for its clients, it can only be good news for the majors.

Elsewhere in the markets, Bitcoin Cash was on the charge, up 6.36%, with Cardano’s ADA a distant 2nd, up 3.32% at the time of writing, the majors in positive territory in the early part of the day.

BTC/USD 05/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 05/05/18

Bitcoin Cash Eying $2,000

Bitcoin Cash consolidated 2 solid days of gains, with a 0.24% rise on Friday, ending the day at $1,514.9. The week’s 5.16% gain may not sound particularly impressive, but following April’s hard fork rally, the upswing going into the weekend bodes well for Bitcoin Cash.

After a slow start to the day on Friday that saw Bitcoin Cash slide to a morning low $1,453.2, calling on support at the day’s first major support level of $1,453.33, it was onwards and upwards from there, with a midday $1,548.5 high coming within touching distance of the day’s first major resistance level of $1,558.33 before easing back at the day’s end.

Steering well clear of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5 and a 2nd consecutive day’s close at $1,500 levels keeps the bullish trend formed back at 6th April’s 600.1 intact and there’s still 10-days to go before the hard fork.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 5.49% to $1,598.8 in what’s been a better start to the day than in recent days, an intraday high $1,610 in the last hour a new swing hi in the extended bullish trend, with improved market sentiment through the week supporting the latest moves.

With Bitcoin Cash breaking through the day’s first major resistance level of $1,557.87 to test the day’s second major resistance level of $1,600.83 before a pullback to sub-$1,600 levels, today’s moves will likely draw in investors, with Bitcoin Cash now having $2,000 levels in its sights.

Failure to move back through the morning’s high and break free of the 2nd major resistance level could see some pullback later in the day, but with last week’s gains on the lighter side and the hard fork yet to come, the day’s first major support level of 1,462.57 should be left untested through the day, raising the prospects of a 3rd consecutive day’s end at $1,500 if not higher.

BCH/USD 05/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Litecoin finally into the $170s

Litecoin gained 4.47% on Friday, following Thursday’s 6.77% gain, to end the day at $168.2. With 3 consecutive days’ of gains taking Litecoin up 9.76% for the week, faring better than Bitcoin Cash and many of the other majors.

After an initial slide to a morning low $157.19, holding above the day’s first major support level of $153.34 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $153.18 supported a strong rally through the day, with Litecoin breaking through the day’s first major resistance level of $166 to test the day’s second major resistance level at $171.01 with an intraday high $171.28 late in the day, before easing back to sub-$170 levels by the day’s end.

A hold above the day’s first major resistance level was certainly bullish, with Litecoin’s new swing hi $171.29 extending the bullish trend formed back at 6th April’s swing lo $112.1.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up 1.48% as Friday’s rally spills into the start of the weekend, with Litecoin hitting a new swing hi $173 in the early hours to test the day’s first major resistance level at $173.92 before a slight pullback.

For the day ahead, while sentiment across the broader market will play its hand, holding above $170 through the early part of the day will be key to supporting a bullish move through the weekend, with $180 the next milestone on its path back through to $200 levels.

Failure to hold at $170 levels through the morning could see a reversal later in the day to pull Litecoin back to test support at the day’s first major support level at $159.83, while we will expect a hold at $160 levels in event of reversal through the day, things looking bullish for Litecoin going into the weekend.

News of Reddit looking to include Litecoin has provided support, with the use of Litecoin as an alternative payment system to fiat money yet to have garnered the necessary level of attention it deserves.

LTC/USD 05/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Ripple Breaks Back into the $0.90s

Ripple’s XRP continued to trail its peers on Friday, gaining just 0.61% to end the day at $0.88948. While the day’s gains were moderate, it was 4 consecutive days of gains that saw Ripple’s XRP rise by 2.66% through the week.

Having struggled to break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477 mid-week, an early slide to a morning low $0.85788 was as bad as is got on Friday. A hold above the day’s first major support level of $0.8441 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level saw Ripple’s XRP bounce to a day high $0.9322 in the middle part of the day, breaking through the day’s first major resistance level at $0.9048 to test the day’s second major resistance level at $0.9322 before easing back to sub-$0.90 levels by the day’s end.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was back through to $0.90 levels early on, up 1.33% at the time of writing, with the weekend rally coming early and supported by Friday afternoon’s moves across the cryptomarket majors.

For the day ahead, a move through to $0.92 levels to test the day’s first major resistance level of $0.9285 would consolidate a new range and hold at $0.90 levels by the day’s end, $1.00 the next milestone.

Failure to break through to $0.92 levels could see Ripple’s XRP struggle later in the day, particularly if investor appetite softens, though with Ripple’s XRP lagging the majors through the week, there could be a trend bucking rally that could bring the day’s 2nd major resistance level of $0.9675 into play.

Any pullback through to Friday’s day end $0.88948 will likely bring the day’s first major support level of $0.8441 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477 into play, which should be enough to prevent any more material losses on the day, in the event of a sell-off.

XRP/USD 05/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Monero’s XMR Technical Analysis – Going Bearish – 04/05/18

Key Highlights

  • Monero slipped 1.49% on Thursday, partially reversing Wednesday’s 4.48% gain, to end the day at $246.21.
  • A morning fall to an intraday low $242 held above the day’s first major support level of $240.7, while Monero’s XMR continued to sit below the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $266.5.
  • An afternoon intraday high $258.5 saw Monero test the day’s first major resistance level of $256.6 before a reversal led to a slide back to end the day at $246.21.

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Monero’s XMR Price Support

Monero slipped 1.49% on Thursday, partially reversing Wednesday’s 4.48% gain to end the day at $246.21, bucking the trend across the broader market that saw most of the crypto majors close out the day with solid gains.

An afternoon rally through to an intraday high $258.5, testing the day’s first major resistance level of $256.6, quickly reversed to see Monero slide back to an afternoon low $242.37 before recovering to $246 levels by the day’s end.

While the broader market has been enjoying a move back towards late April’s swing hi levels, Monero is seeing its bullish trend, formed back at 6th April’s swing lo $161.1, being tested, with a near term bearish trend beginning to form.

The shift in sentiment comes following news hitting the wires that Japan’s FSA will look to force crypto exchanges to delist crypto coins that support criminal activity through anonymity or enhanced privacy. Monero is not the only coin, but amongst a number of coins listed that sit in the top 20 by market cap.

For now, the good news is that the lion’s share of trading volumes are outside of Japan, with HitBTC, Bitfinex and Upbit accounting for over 99% of Monero’s XMR trading volumes across XMR/USD, XMR/BTC and XMR/KRW pairings. The bad news is that efforts to create a global set of regs could see other regulators look to introduce similar rules to the FSA, which would certainly have a more devastating impact Monero’s XMR.

Monero’s failure to break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $266.5 may well see investors move elsewhere, the news of cryptos being removed from exchanges as influential as news of inclusion, though no news has hit the wires of exchanges having already complied with the FSA’s request.

At the time of writing, Monero was down a further 1.74% to $242.01, a morning low $240.07 seeing Monero’s XMR pullback through the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $246.3, the only good news through the early part of the day being a hold above the day’s first major support level of $239.3.

For the day ahead, failing to move back through to $250 levels and have look at breaking out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $266.5 will likely see more declines on the cards by the day’s end, sub-$240 support levels certainly in play today.

Broader market sentiment may not be enough for Monero today, which suggests that a reversal of the bullish trend formed on 6th April is underway, which could see Monero face selling pressure at $245 levels should Monero find some support through the morning.

XMR/USD 04/05/18 Hourly Chart

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $239.3

Major Resistance Level: $255.8

Fib 23.6% Retracement Level: $266.5

Fib 38% Retracement Level: $246.3

Fib 62% Retracement Level: $213.8

Bitcoin $10,000 – So near, yet so far!

Bitcoin managed to break out from its recent ranges on Thursday, rallying 5.54% to end the day at $9,748, the gains coming off the back of Wednesday’s 1.87 rise.

It was a day of two halves for Bitcoin, the morning seeing moves within a particularly tight range, with the day’s low $9,161 holding clear of the first major support level of $9,046.63 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996.

A second half of the day rally saw Bitcoin move through the day’s major resistance levels with relative ease to an intraday high $9,875 before easing back to the day’s end $9,748 to hold above the day’s 3rd major resistance level of $9,786.47.

With Bitcoin having been stuck in a rut in late April through the first few days of May, Thursday’s high was a new swing hi, reinforcing the current bullish trend formed back at 6th April’s swing lo $6,500 .2, while $10,000 continues to remain ever elusive for the Bitcoin bulls.

Bitcoin’s extended rut is expected to result in a strong move, with the bullish trend supporting a break through to $10,000 levels, though with investors quick to hit the sell-button, a pullback to the recent ranges could see a near-term reversal, with any slide through the 62% FIB Retracement Level of $7,789 likely to kick off a bearish trend. An extension of the current bullish trend will be dependent on Bitcoin breaking through to $10,000 levels in the coming day.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 1.27% to $9,634.8, with Bitcoin recovering from a start of a day slide to a morning low $9,542.5 before moving back through to $9,600 levels.

With Bitcoin holding well above the day’s first major support level of $9,314.33 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $9,079, it’s looking bullish for Bitcoin for the day, though whether Bitcoin has the legs to break through the $10,000 psychological level to test the day’s first major resistance level of $10,028.33 remains to be seen.

Last year, there were certain milestones that took longer for Bitcoin to break through, with December’s record high coming of the back of an extended period of tight ranges that culminated in a number of sizeable breakouts through the year.

The bulls will be hoping for a similar trend this time around, but with investors continuing to lock in profits, a pullback to the recent ranges could see Bitcoin go into reverse in the 2nd half of the day to bring the day’s 1st major support level of $9,314.33 into play.

A fall back through to sub-$9,000 levels could see investors get defensive, which would begin reversing the current bullish trend, though for now we would expect Bitcoin to find support at $9,300 levels and avoid a more material decline ahead of the weekend, barring material news hitting the wires.

A move through to $9,700 levels should be considered a green light for a run at $10,000 later today, once the markets have settled from Thursday’s moves.

BTC/USD 04/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 04/05/18

Bitcoin Cash at $1,500 but can it hold?

Bitcoin Cash gained 3.34% on Thursday, following Wednesday’s 7.83% rally, to end the day at $1,510, its first close at $1,500 levels since 20th February’s $1,543.1 close.

Thursday was a choppier day than most with Bitcoin Cash breaking through the day’s first major resistance level of $1,533.13 early on with a start of a day high $1,543.3 before pulling back to a morning low $1,445.

A second half of the day rally saw Bitcin Cash hit a day high $1,550, breaking through the day’s first major support level for a second time before easing back by the day’s end, the moves through the day continuing to support the extended bullish trend formed back on 6th April.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 2.28% to $1,477, with Bitcoin Cash going into reverse at the start of the day, falling through to an intraday low $1,455.3 before recovering to $1,470 levels.

With the day’s first major support level of $1,453.33 currently in play, any pullback through to $1,430 could see a more material pullback to test sub-$1,400 levels, while a bounce back through to the opening $1,511.3 would support a more bullish afternoon to bring the day’s first major resistance level of $1,558.33 into play, raising the prospects of $1,750 through the weekend.

In spite of the start of the day slide, the lateral moves through the morning support a middle of the day rebound to bring resistance levels into play.

BCH/USD 04/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Litecoin hits the $160s

Litecoin gained 6.77% on Thursday, following Wednesday’s 1.97% rise, to end the day at $161 and move into positive territory for the current week.

The day was certainly less choppy than Bitcoin Cash’s, with Litecoin relatively range bound through the morning, an intraday low $150.69 holding well above the day’s first major support level of $147.33, whilst hovering around the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $153.18.

A middle of the day rally saw Litecoin breakout from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level, moving through the day’s major resistance levels to an intraday high $163.35, before easing back to an end of day $161. Holding above the day’s 2nd major resistance level of $156.45 and just shy of the 3rd major resistance level of $162.8 supported a resumption of the bull trend formed back at 6th April’s swing lo $112.1

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down 2.04% to $157.72, with a sell-off across the broader market at the turn of the day seeing Litecoin slide to an intraday low $157.19 within the first hour.

Holding above the day’s first major support level of $153.34 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $153.18 was key early on, though for the day ahead, a move through to $160 levels is going to be needed to continue supporting the current bull trend formed back on 6th April, Thursday’s $163.35 high having fallen short of 24th April’s swing hi $165.87, leaving sentiment mixed on what lies ahead.

Lateral moves through the morning would support a run back through to $160 levels, with Litecoin’s next milestone of $170 likely to coincide with Bitcoin taking a run at $10,000.

While it’s still bullish, some care is needed through the early part of the day, any pullback through support levels likely to leave the Litecoin investors on a more cautious footing.

LTC/USD 04/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Ripple Gains but Trails

Ripple’s XRP picked up 2.35% on Thursday, following Tuesday and Wednesday’s gains, to end the day at $0.87735.

A positive start to the day that saw Ripple’s XRP hit a morning high 0.87261 reversed early to leave the day’s first major resistance level of $0.8789 untested, Ripple’s XRP falling through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477 to an intraday low $0.83818 before support kicked in to drive Ripple’s XRP through the day’s first major resistance level to an intraday high $0.8989 before easing back to $0.87 levels by the close.

The moves through the day may have been on the softer side when compared with some of the front runners, but with 3 consecutive days of gains, the bullish trend remains intact in early May with a move back through to $0.90 levels needed to give a run at $1.00 that was last touched on 6th March.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down 2.27% to $0.86401, with the majors falling victim to a start of the day sell-off, Ripple’s XRP sliding to a morning low $0.85377 from its opening $0.88407.

Holding above the day’s first major support level of $0.8441 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477 will provide some support through the middle part of the morning, with range bound moves likely to see investors jump back in and support a fresh run at $0.90 levels and the day’s first major resistance level of $0.9048 into play.

Failure to move back through today’s opening $0.88407 will likely see Ripple’s XRP test the day’s first major support level and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level before any fresh buys provide support, investors continuing to take a more cautious approach in spite of the shift in broad market sentiment.

XRP/USD 04/05/18 Hourly Chart

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NFP and Wage Growth Puts the USD in Focus Once More

Earlier in the Day:

Economic data released through the Asian session this morning was limited to China’s April service sector PMI figures, with the RBA also releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes from Tuesday interest rate decision.

For the Aussie Dollar, while the RBA’s hold had been widely anticipated, the tone of the minutes were of greater interest following April’s dovish outlook on near-term policy.

  • Inflation remains low and stable, 1st quarter inflation figures in line with forecasts in the February Statement on Monetary Policy, attributed to low wage growth and downward pressure on retail prices due to increased competition in the sector.
  • GDP growth is expected to be stronger in 2018 and 2019 than in 2017, supported by upward revisions to household consumption and stronger than expected non-mining business investment.
  • Risks to the economy continue to be high household debt levels, uncertainty over income growth that could weigh on consumption, uncertainty over the degree of spare capacity in the economy and tensions over global trade.
  • There were also concerns raised that global inflation could accelerate more quickly than forecasted that could lead central banks to move quickly on policy, a move that would adversely impact the global financial markets.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.75470 to $0.75509 upon release of the statement, which was largely in line with the February statement. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up 0.35% to $0.7558.

Out of China, the service sector PMI came in ahead of forecasts, rising from 52.3 to 52.9 in April, the increase attributed to improved sales supported by improving market conditions, an increased number of tourists and new product offerings.

China’s composite rose from March’s 4-month low 51.8 to 52.3 in April, easing concerns over the Chinese economy going into the 2nd quarter.

Elsewhere, the Kiwi Dollar was down 0.18% to $0.7029, with the Japanese Yen up 0.16% to ¥109.02 against the U.S Dollar, a broad based equity market sell-off supporting appetite for the Yen, as the Dollar sees a pullback ahead of this afternoon’s stats, caution ahead of a conclusion to trade talks weighing through the session.

The Hang Seng and CSI300 were down 0.35% and 0.16% respectively at the time of writing, while the ASX200 and Nikkei headed into the final part of the session down 0.49% and 0.16% respectively.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR, economic data out of the Eurozone this morning includes Spanish employment figures, finalized April service sector PMI numbers together with the Eurozone’s March retail sales figures.

Forecasts are for the Eurozone’s Markit Composite PMI to remain unchanged from prelim, which would be in line with March numbers, whilst well below January’s close to 12-year high, recent economic indicators continuing to point to the 1st quarter soft patch spilling into the 2nd quarter. Any downward revisions would certainly be a negative for the EUR, with retail sales also expected to disappoint following Germany’s unexpected fall in retail sales.

From a market perspective, the soft 1st quarter GDP and inflation numbers have pushed back expectations of a shift in ECB policy on deposit and interest rates and should today’s figures continue suggest that the economy will plod along at a similar pace to the 1st quarter, it could be some time before the ECB changes its position and Draghi could have already passed on the baton by then.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up 0.03% to $1.1992, with today’s stats and updates from Beijing on trade talks between the U.S and China the key drivers ahead of this afternoon’s nonfarm payroll and wage growth figures out of the U.S.

For the Pound, it’s a quiet day on the data front, giving the markets time to reflect on this week’s private sector PMI numbers that failed to give hopes of a strong economic rebound in the 2nd quarter, in spite of the bounce back in the construction PMI, the construction sector having been the main drag on 1st quarter growth.

With economic data having provided little comfort, the Pound relatively muted on the release of the construction PMI earlier in the week, Brexit chatter has also yet to provide much needed support.

While the EU will continue to strong arm the UK in trade negotiations, Theresa May’s position at the top continues to look precarious, her plans for the customs union lacking the necessary support that could ultimately lead to her untimely departure from Number 10.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.05% to $1.3582, with any upside likely to come from Dollar weakness than any material shift in sentiment towards BoE monetary policy or Brexit.

Across the Pond, it’s another big day for the Greenback on the data front, with April’s nonfarm payroll and wage growth figures scheduled for release.

With the U.S unemployment rate forecasted to drop to 4%, it’s going to be wage growth that will drive the Dollar this afternoon, any better than forecasted figures likely to cause the markets to reconsider the number of rate hikes for the remainder of the year, a 4th a possibility should momentum in the economy continue and wage growth and inflationary pressures continue to build.

With focus on the stats in the early part of the afternoon, FOMC members Dudley and Williams are also scheduled to speak later in the day, with both members more than capable of giving the markets greater clarity on the FED’s policy stance following the acceleration in inflation and improving economic indicators at the turn of the quarter.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up 0.04% to 92.376, with U.S – China trade talks and today’s stats the key drivers ahead of FOMC chatter later in the day.

Across the borders, economic data out of Canada is limited to April’s Ivey PMI number, which will need to be impressive for the Loonie to shake off the disappointing March trade figures that will likely see GDP numbers reverse at the end of the 1st quarter, following February’s acceleration.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up 0.04% to $1.2842, with more than oil prices needed for a move back through to C$1.26 levels, a break down in U.S – China trade talks and a favourable conclusion to NAFTA negotiations likely to be the Loonie bulls’ only hope of a near-term rebound.

NEM’s XEM Technical Analysis – In the Red with $0.40 Levels at Risk – 03/05/18

Key Highlights

  • NEM’s XEM rallied 4.47% on Wednesday, following Tuesday’s 0.16% fall, to end the day at $0.42262.
  • XEM managed to recover from an early morning dip to a day low $0.39466, to break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.402 to hit an intraday high $0.42896.
  • While the day’s first major support level of $0.3877 was left untested, NEM’s XEM broke through and held above the day’s first major resistance level of $0.4155 on Wednesday.

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NEM’s XEM Price Support

NEM’s XEM gained 4.47% on Wednesday, following Tuesday’s 0.16% consolidation of April’s rally, to end the day at $0.42262.

A morning $0.39466 low tested buyer appetite at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.402 early on, with a positive shift in sentiment across the market supporting an early recovery and a breakout from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level to a day high 0.42896 that saw NEM’s XEM break through the day’s first major resistance level of $0.4155 and second major resistance level of $0.4264 before easing back to end the day at $0.42 levels.

Holding above the day’s first major resistance level was certainly a positive while setting NEM’s XEM up for this morning’s early pullback.

At the time of writing, NEM’s XEM was down 1.57% to $0.41573, with a lack of momentum through the early part of the morning leaving the day’s first major resistance level of $0.4362 untested.

An early intraday high $0.42557 was the only positive, a pullback coming from some early profit taking leading NEM’s XEM to a morning low $0.41115.

A hold above the day’s first major support level of $0.4019 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.402 will be considered as a positive start to the day, supporting a reversal to this morning’s slide and a move back through to the day’s $0.426 high to test the day’s first major resistance level of $0.4362.

With investors seemingly edgy following April’s rally, a pullback through to test the day’s first major support level may be on the cards later in the day should NEM’s XEM fail to break through to $0.43 levels, with NEM’s XEM sitting at its $0.4154 pivot early on, which would likely see NEM’s XEM give up $0.40 levels.

The direction at the day’s first major support level of $0.4019 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level will be in the hands of sentiment across the broader market, with the day’s key support level sitting at the second major support level of $0.3811.

While NEM’s XEM bullish trend formed at 6th April’s swing lo 0.20803 remains intact following Wednesday’s gain, a reversal through to sub-$0.38 levels would see the formation of a bearish trend and more significant declines before a longer-term bullish trend kicks in.

XEM/USD 1H Chart
XEM/USD 1H Chart

Looking at the Technical Indicators

  • Major Support Level: $0.4019
  • Major Resistance Level: $0.4362
  • Fib 23.6% Retracement Level: $0.4020
  • Fib 38% Retracement Level: $0.3649
  • Fib 62% Retracement Level: $0.3050

The Bitcoin Rut – What’s Next and Can the Bulls Come Out on Top?

Bitcoin gained 1.87% on Wednesday, reversing Tuesday’s 1.79% fall, to end the day at $9,241.6.

A start of the day fall through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996 found buying appetite to reverse the early loss and see Bitcoin break out from the 23.6 FIB Retracement Level to a morning high $9,204.3 before easing back, the morning high falling short of the day’s first major resistance level of $9,275.6.

Following a range bound middle part of the day, Bitcoin found its legs in the latter part of the day to test the day’s first major resistance level, with an intraday high $9,279.9, before easing back by the day’s end to hold clear of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level and close at $9,000 levels for a 5th consecutive day.

The gains on the day were minor relative to Bitcoin Cash’s 7.83% rally and not enough to pull Bitcoin into positive territory for the current week, Bitcoin struggling to break free from its current ranges and a make a run at late April’s swing hi $9,767.4 and $10,000 levels.

There’s been no materially negative news to hold Bitcoin back, with Bitcoin now needing to break out from its current range to continue the recover from the first quarter sell-off. Failure to break out and resultant pullback to low $8,000 levels could see Bitcoin take a near-term slide, while the longer-term trend continues to look bullish for now, sentiment towards Bitcoin and the broader market having improved through April.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 0.18% to $9,220, with a morning high $9,292.0 coming up short of the day’s first major resistance level of $9,358.23 to move into reverse through the middle of the morning, with Bitcoin falling to a morning low $9,161 in the last hour.

The tight ranges have continued through morning and for the day ahead, a move through to $9,300 levels will be needed to draw in buyers on the side lines and take a run at the day’s first major resistance level of $9,359.23 and bring $9,500 levels back into play.

For Bitcoin to have a look at $10,000, a move through the late April swing hi $9,767.4 would be needed, requiring a break through the 2nd major resistance level of $9,474.87, which looks unlikely for now as investors continue to lock in profits on narrower gains ahead of Bitcoin Cash’s hard fork.

Failure to test the day’s first major resistance level will likely see Bitcoin go into reverse later in the day through the first major support level of $9,046.63 to test buyer appetite at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996, with any deterioration in sentiment across the market bringing the day’s 2nd major support level of $8.851.67 into play, before any recovery on the dip.

Uncertainty over the impact of Bitcoin Cash‘s hard fork on Bitcoin may be playing a hand in the current moves, with the investors also mindful of new regulations that are expected to be rolled out in the coming months.

BTC/USD 03/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 03/05/18

Bitcoin Cash Resumes Bull Trend

Bitcoin Cash gained 7.83% on Wednesday, following Tuesday’s 0.54% consolidation, to end the day at $1,461.2, its highest close since 20th February’s $1,543.1.

A middle part of the day rally saw Bitcoin Cash break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5 to hit an intraday high $1499.9 before a slight pullback before the end of the day, Bitcoin Cash resuming its bull trend following a start of the week consolidation from April’s rally.

Bitcoin Cash’s hold above the day’s 2nd major resistance level of $1,442.3 bringing $1,500 levels into play in the early hours of this morning.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 3.51% to $1,511.7, a start of the day bounce to a day high $1,543.3 breaking through the first major resistance level of $1,533.13 before easing back to current levels.

With key support levels untested on Wednesday and through the early part of this morning, a break out from the first major resistance level would support a run at April’s swing hi $1,578.3 to bring $1,600 levels into play this week and a possible return to $2,000 ahead of 15th May’s hard fork.

Failure to break through to $1,550 could see Bitcoin Cash pullback to test support at the $1,400 psychological level, which will be dependent upon sentiment across the broader market, with any pullback to $1,300 levels bringing the day’s first major support level of $1,356.03 into play.

We will expect key support to sit at $1,200, just below the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $1,204.6, any pullback through to $1,100 levels bringing sub-$1,000 and a full reversal of the current bullish trend into play.

BCH/USD 03/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Litecoin Moves back to the $150s

Litecoin gained 1.97% on Wednesday, reversing Tuesday’s 0.22% decline, to end the day at $150.9. Wednesday’s gain was not enough to reverse Monday’s 3.3% slide, but moving back through to $150 levels was key to support a continuation of the bullish trend formed at 6th April’s swing lo $112.1.

An intraday high $152.88 saw Litecoin break clear of the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $145.33 to move through the day’s first major resistance level of $150.25 to test the 2nd major resistance level of $152.51, which led to a pullback to $150 levels by the day’s end.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up 1.37% to $152.86, with Wednesday’s hold above the day’s first major resistance level supporting a positive move through the early part of the day.

An early $154.35 high came within reach of the first major resistance level of $153.68, whilst moving through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $153.18, leading to a pullback to current levels.

With buyer appetite providing support at current levels, a move back through the first major resistance level would support a run at $155 levels, to bring the 2nd major resistance level of $156.45 into play and $160 levels.

Failure to break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level to retest the day’s first major resistance level could see Litecoin move into a reversal later in the day to bring sub-$150 support levels into play, while we will expect Litecoin to receive plenty of support from any pullback through Wednesday’s $146.53 low to the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $145.33 and the day’s 2nd major support level of $143.75.

Barring materially bad news, Litecoin should be on the front foot through the middle part of the day, with $170 the next target in the current bull run.

LTC/USD 03/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Ripple Moves Ahead

Ripple’s XRP gained 2.76% on Wednesday, following Tuesday’s 2.61% rise, to end the day at $0.85771.

Wednesday’s gains saw Ripple’s XRP make a full recovery from Monday’s 3.93% slide to resume the bullish trend formed at 6th April’s swing lo $0.45716.

A late in the day rally led to a break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477 to hit an intraday high $0.87101, Ripple’s XRP moving through the day’s first major resistance level of $0.8545 to come within reach of the 2nd major resistance level of $0.8741 before a pullback to $0.85 levels by the day’s end.

A hold above the first major resistance level and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level at the day’s end supported a positive start to this morning, with Ripple’s XRP moving back through to $0.87 levels with an early morning $0.87261 high.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up 0.11% to $0.85816, the morning’s high having fallen short of the day’s first major resistance level of $0.8789, leading to a pullback through the middle part of the morning, with Ripple’s XRP likely to call on buyers at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477.

A shift in market sentiment to the negative would see Ripple’s XRP test the day’s first major support level of $0.8286 before any recovery in the second half of the day.

While Ripple’s XRP may have seen a pickup in volatility, we continue to have a bullish view, with a move back through to $0.90 levels needed this week to see talks of $1.00 levels return to fuel the current bull run.

XRP/USD 03/05/18 Hourly Chart

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U.S – China Trade Talks Could Pressure the Dollar

Earlier in the Day:

Economic released through the Asian session this morning was on the lighter side, with stats limited to Australia’s March building approval and trade figures.

Building approvals rose by 2.6% in March, coming in ahead of a forecasted 1% increase, following February’s revised 4.2% slide. According to the ABS, the increase was attributed to a 6.1% jump in private sector dwellings excluding houses on a seasonally adjusted basis, while private sector house approvals rose by 1.1%.

Year-on-year, building approvals were up 14.5%, with private sector dwellings excluding houses up by 21.4%, while private sector house approvals rose by 10.4%.

On the trade front, Australia’s trade surplus widened from an upwardly revised February A$1.349bn to $1.527bn, coming in ahead of a forecasted A$0.5bn.

The Exports of goods and services rose by A$488m (1%) in March to A$34,840m. The increase was attributed to:

  • Non-rural goods exports, which rose by A$191m (1%)
  • Non-monetary gold exports, which rose by A$131m (8%)
  • Rural goods exports, which increased by A$126m (3%).
  • Services credits rose by A$41m (1%).

Offsetting the increases were a fall in the export of goods under merchanting, down A$1m (14%) in March.

The imports of goods and services rose by A$310m (1%) to A$33,314m. The increase was attributed to:

  • Intermediate and other merchandise goods: Up by A$381m (4%)
  • Non-monetary gold: Up by A$232m (48%)

The increases were offset by falls in the import of consumption goods (A$198m) and capital goods (A$61m), with services down A$44m (1%).

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.75062 to $0.75212 upon release of the figures that took the quarterly trade balance to an A$4,035m surplus, quite a rebound from the 4th quarter’s A$1,317m deficit, pointing to a solid 1st quarter that could see the Aussie Dollar begin to claw its way back. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up 0.37% to $0.7521, positive stats for the 1st quarter together with the FOMC’s Statement providing direction through the session.

Elsewhere, the Japanese Yen was up 0.15% to ¥109.68 against the U.S Dollar, the Dollar giving up some of its recent gains following the FOMC statement release that was not quite as hawkish as the markets had expected, also providing the Kiwi Dollar with some much needed relief, the Kiwi up 0.31% to $0.7017 in what could be seen as a U.S Dollar reversal in the coming weeks.

In the equity markets, it was a mixed bag, with the ASX200 bucking the trend through the session, supported by the better than expected trade figures, up 0.93% at the time of writing, while the Hang Seng and CSI300 saw red, down 1.66% and 0.09% respectively, the pair under pressure following the FOMC Statement that pointed to inflation sitting close to target, whilst holding back from suggesting the need for a shift in policy.

Focus will be on trade talks between the U.S and China, which begin today and could spell trouble for the markets should one or both sides walk away, China not expected to yield to the demand of the U.S.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR, it’s a somewhat quieter day, with economic data out of the Eurozone limited to the Eurozone’s April prelim inflation figures.

While headline inflation is forecasted to hold steady at 1.3%, a softer core inflation figures would be a negative for the EUR this morning, though the markets are more likely to consider the more dovish FOMC Statement than an expectedly softer baseline inflation figure.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up 0.32% to $1.1989, a narrowing in monetary policy divergence providing support to the EUR, while noise from the U.S – China trade meeting could add further upside should bad news begin to hit the wires.

For the Pound, economic data out of the UK is limited to April’s service sector PMI number, which could provide some much needed momentum for the Pound, to ease concerns of a continuing slowdown in the UK economy, following the softer manufacturing PMI earlier in the week.

While Wednesday’s construction PMI rebound was expected and the muted impact on the Pound also anticipated, a bounce in service sector activity would certainly give the markets something to think about ahead of this month’s monetary policy meeting, though for now the prospects of a rate hike this month look slim at best.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.17% to $1.3599, with $1.37 levels on the table should the service sector PMI number impress, though Theresa May’s troubles will also need to ease.

Across the Pond, stats out of the U.S are on the heavier side, with the weekly jobless claims, service sector PMI, trade, 1st quarter productivity and labour costs and March factor orders scheduled for release.

Of greatest influence will likely be the market’s preferred ISM non-manufacturing PMI number, though we will expect the 1st quarter labour cost and productivity figures to also influence, the goods trade balance having already made its mark ahead of today’s trade figures.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down 0.01% to 92.503, with today’s data and progress on trade talks between the U.S and China the key drivers, as the market considers whether the Dollar has been overbought on expectations of a more aggressive rate path through the remainder of the year.

Across the borders, Canada’s March trade figures are scheduled for release that will certainly provide the Loonie with some direction, a forecasted narrowing in the trade deficit a positive, while better than forecast could see the Loonie claw back to C$1.27 levels against the Greenback by the end of the week.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up 0.30% to C$1.2845 against the U.S Dollar, with the early slide coming off the back of Wednesday’s FOMC Statement.

Stellar’s Lumen Technical Analysis – Looking to make a move – 02/05/18

Key Highlights

  • Stellar’s Lumen gained 2.5% on Tuesday, partially reversing Monday’s 7.5% slide, to end the day at $0.43551.
  • An early tumble to an intraday low $0.38623 saw Stellar’s Lumen fall through the first major support level of $0.4001 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.3994.
  • Support at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level kicked, with a morning rebound to an intraday high $0.45144 moving clear of key support levels for the rest of the day, while Stellar’s Lumen testing resistance at the first major resistance level of $0.4516.

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Stellar’s Lumen Price Resistance

Stellar’s Lumen gained 2.5% on Tuesday, partially reversing Monday’s 7.5% fall, to end the day at $0.43551.

Monday’s late sell-off spilled over into Tuesday morning, leading to a tumble through the day’s first major support level of $0.4001 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.3994 before support kicked in to leave the 2nd major support level of $0.3786 untested for the day.

While the rest of the majors struggled through the morning, Stellar’s Lumen bounced back from the morning low to an intraday high $0.45144, to break clear of the day’s major support levels and 23.6% FIB Retracement level.

The day’s high $0.45144 tested the first major resistance level of $0.4516, with the trend-bucking bounce seeing a partial reversal but all-important hold above key support levels by the day’s end.

Moves through the morning came off the back of news of Stellar’s Lumen being included on the Bitfinex exchange. The inclusion of a cryptocurrency on a popular exchange always bullish and its inclusion of Bitfinex was not the only announcement as the Stellar team continues to find success in the real world, the platform become increasingly popular, supporting a bullish outlook.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was up 1.27% to $0.44069, with the morning seeing an upward trajectory from the start, Stellar’s Lumen moving from a start of the day $0.43542 to a morning high $0.4464 before easing back to current levels.

Moves through the morning left the day’s major support and resistance levels untested early, while sentiment towards Stellar’s blockchain platform continues to draw in support for Stellar’s Lumen that has been touted to be one of the major movers this year.

For the day ahead, a move through to the $0.45 levels would support a run at the day’s first major resistance level of $0.4626, which should bring $0.50 levels into play through the latter part of the week, broader market sentiment needing to see a material deterioration to knock Stellar’s Lumen off its bullish trend.

Failure to back through to $0.45 levels will likely see an easing back through to $0.42 levels, while sub-$0.40 support levels should remain untested through the day, barring materially negative news hitting the wires.

XLM 1H Chart
XLM 1H Chart

Looking at the Technical Indicators

  • Major Support Level: $0.3973
  • Major Resistance Level: $0.4626
  • Fib 23.6% Retracement Level: $0.3994
  • Fib 38% Retracement Level: $0.3586
  • Fib 62% Retracement Level: $0.2926

Bitcoin Looks to Resume the Bullish Trend, $9,500 its first milestone

Bitcoin slipped 1.79% on Tuesday, adding to Monday’s 1.72% fall, to end the day at $9,075.1.

After Monday’s relatively minor decline, Bitcoin slid from an opening $9,240.6 to $8,876.8 within the first hour, the sell-off taking Bitcoin through the day’s first major resistance level of $9,075.27 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996, before some buyers returned at the 2nd major support level of $8,912.6

Heavier losses elsewhere through the morning ultimately pinned Bitcoin back from breaking out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level, with a middle of the day fall to the day’s low $8,818 once again testing major support levels before a shift in sentiment through the afternoon saw Bitcoin recover to $9,000 levels, with an intraday high $9,247.3 late in the day ensuring that Bitcoin closed out above the day’s major support levels and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level.

There was no negative news to influence the early moves, with the latest bullish trend formed back at 6th April continuing to look tired at the start of the week, though much of the moves since Monday will have been down to profit taking, Bitcoin having rallied 35% in the month of April.

For the bulls, recovering to $9,000 levels and hitting an intraday high $9,247.3 off the back of a slide to a day low $8,818 will give some hope of a bottoming out, which would support a strong rebound in the coming days and restore hopes of Bitcoin breaking back through to $10,000 levels for the first time since 9th March.

We continue to view the bullish trend to be intact, with direction through the current week a make or break for the Bitcoin bulls this month, Bitcoin Cash’s hard fork in 2-weeks’ time a consideration for investors, a decision needing to be made on which side of the fence to sit.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 0.73% to $9,134.0, with Bitcoin recovering from an early morning $8,968.3 low, as support kicked in at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996, pulling Bitcoin back through to $9,000 levels.

The morning’s intraday high $9,134.0 supports a bullish trend for the day, with Bitcoin managing to break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996 and avoid testing the day’s first major support level of $8,846.3.

A move through to $9,180 would support a run at $9,200 levels to bring the day’s first major resistance level of $9,275.6 into play, any failure to break through to $9,200 levels this morning likely to weigh on Bitcoin this afternoon and bring sub-$9,000 support levels into play.

We would expect Bitcoin to close out the day at $9,000 levels, support likely to kick in at sub-$9,000 levels, with sentiment through the middle of the day driving Bitcoin that has begun to make some moves on Bitcoin Cash ahead of this month’s hard fork.

Looking across at the Cboe Bitcoin Futures, the May contract was up $150 to $9,150, tracking Bitcoin closely through the early part of the day, with volumes on the lighter side this morning unlikely to provide the cryptomarket with too much direction.

Elsewhere, DASH and Waves were in the red through the early part of the day, while the rest of the majors were in positive territory, with Monero and Ripple’s XRP leading the majors early on in what looks to be a resumption of the bull trend formed back on 6th April.

BTC/USD 02/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 02/05/18

Bitcoin Cash Bottoms Out

Bitcoin Cash gained 0.54% on a choppy Tuesday, following Monday’s 6.43% fall, to end the day at $1,355.3.

The day started off as Monday had ended, with a slide through the day’s 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5 and first major support level of $1,302.07 to test support at the day’s 2nd major support level of $1,256.13 with an intraday low $1,243.4.

Negative sentiment across the broader market saw support on the softer side in the early part of the day before a mid-morning recovery saw Bitcoin Cash move back through the major support levels to a morning high $1,327.9.

A partial reversal through the mid-afternoon tested support levels further before a rebound through to a day high $1,364.6 late in the day, a hold above the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5 by the day’s end easing some of the week’s pain.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 1.04% to $1,341 as support at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5 continued to lack the necessary vim to see Bitcoin Cash break free and make a run at $1,400 levels.

A morning low $1,322.8 saw Bitcoin Cash hold above the day’s first major support level of $1,277.6, with a hold at current levels through the morning key to preventing a slide through to the first major support level and bring the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level into play.

A move through to test resistance at $1,400 would provide some comfort, though sentiment across the broader market would likely dictate the degree of resistance at $1,400 levels, any break through likely to bring $1,500 levels into play.

Bitcoin Cash could see heavier losses this afternoon, if there’s no recovery to $1,400 levels, Altcoins likely to draw in investors on the assumption that the Bitcoin Cash hard fork rally has come to an end.

BCH/USD 02/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Litecoin Struggles

Litecoin slipped 0.22% on Tuesday, following Monday’s 3.3% fall, to end the day at $147.99.

With the broader market in sync at the start of the day, an early morning slide to an intraday low

$142.73 low came off the back of a late Monday sell-off, with negative sentiment across the broader market giving Litecoin little cushion at key support levels.

Litecoin fell through the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level and the day’s first and second major support levels, before moving back through the 2nd support level of $142.95, while breaking out from the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $145.33 proved to be more of a challenge through the day.

For the Litecoin bulls, a late in the day rally saw Litecoin eventually break clear of the day’s major support levels and 38.2% FIB Retracement Level, hitting an intraday high $148.75 before easing back to $147 levels by the day’s end.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down 0.34% to $147.49, with another morning sell-off seeing Litecoin fall to a morning low $146.53 before recovering to $147 levels.

Litecoin managed to hold above the day’s first major resistance level of $144.23 and 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $145.33, providing some stability through the early part of the day, setting Litecoin up for a possible move northwards through the afternoon, Litecoin having failed to test major resistance levels since last Thursday.

A move through to Tuesday’s $148.75 high would support a run at $150 levels and the day’s first major resistance level of $150.25, with Litecoin needing to break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $153.18 to restore the bullish trend that has stalled since 24th April’s swing hi $165.87.

Failure to move through to $150 levels should see Litecoin hover at around the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level by the close, though we could see the day’s 2nd support level of $140.47 come into play should sentiment fail to improve this afternoon.

LTC/USD 02/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Ripple makes a partial recovery

Ripple’s XRP gained 2.61% on Tuesday, partially reversing Monday’s 3.93% rise, to end the day at $0.835.

It was one of the more choppy days for Ripple’s XRP and the broader market, with a late Monday sell-off carrying on into the early hours of this morning, leading Ripple’s XRP through the day’s first major support level of $0.8037 to a morning low $0.78116 before moving back through the day’s first major support level and more importantly back to $0.80 levels.

Ripple’s failure to break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477 by the day’s end will have given the bears some hope, an intraday high $0.83737 the lowest high since the 19th April rally that saw Ripple’s XRP move from $0.69 levels to just shy of $0.80 levels on the day.

A move through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level is going to be needed for the bullish trend to continue and the move is going to have to come sooner rather than later, the cryptomarket seemingly a little jittery following April’s rally.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up 1.33% to $0.84558, the moves through the morning seeing Ripple’s XRP look to break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477.

An early morning fall to a low $0.8206 saw Ripple’s XRP steer clear of the day’s first major support level of $0.7983, while continuing to sit below the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level, before an intraday high $0.864409 break out tested the day’s first major resistance level of $0.8545, leading to a pullback to current levels.

For the day ahead, a move back through to the day’s first major resistance level would support a trend bucking run, with Ripple’s XRP likely to be among a few looking at upside through the day, the bullish trend intact at the start of May.

A reversal this morning could see Ripple’s XRP move back through to the morning’s $0.8206 low, though we would expect sub$-0.80 support levels to be left untested through the day.

XRP/USD 02/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Are we in for a USD Surprise with today’s FOMC Statement?

Earlier in the Day:

Economic data released through the Asian session this morning was on the lighter side, with stats limited to 1st quarter employment numbers out of New Zealand and China’s April manufacturing sector PMI number.

For the Kiwi Dollar there was finally some good news, with New Zealand’s unemployment rate falling from 4.5% to 4.4% in the 1st quarter, employment change rising by 0.6% following the 4th quarter’s 0.5% rise.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.70052 to $0.70065 upon release of the figures, recovering from $0.69 levels late in the day, before moving to $0.7010 at the time of writing, up 0.07% for the session.

For the Aussie Dollar, following the official government figures from earlier in the week that reported a slight softening in manufacturing sector activity across the SoEs, this morning’s Caixin Markit survey reported an uptick in manufacturing sector growth, the PMI rising from 51.0 to 51.1 in April.

While the headline number was marginally better, a slower increase in total new work, driven by falling export sales will be of concern, though it’s unclear how much influence the recent trade spat has had, with manufacturing companies continuing to reduce staff numbers in spite of rising backlogs.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.74822 to $0.74921 upon release of the figures, which will have eased near-term fears of a material slowdown in the Chinese economy going into the 2nd quarter, though the impact of the trade spat between the U.S and China was evident in the export and new order numbers.

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up 0.19% to $0.7504, the gains coming off the back of a softer U.S Dollar this morning and bounce in commodity prices.

In the equity markets it was a mixed bag, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng in the red, while the CSI300 and ASX200 made progress through the session, as the markets prepared for today’s FOMC monetary policy decision and the all-important release of the FOMC Statement.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR, it’s a busy economic calendar for the day ahead, with key stats scheduled for release including finalized April manufacturing sector PMI numbers and the Eurozone’s March unemployment rate and 1st quarter GDP numbers.

Barring material deviation from prelim figures, focus this morning will be on the 1st estimate GDP number, with any softer than forecasted numbers likely to see the EUR slip back through to $1.19 levels, the markets already expecting some slowdown following the prelim numbers out of France at the end of last week.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up 0.08% to $1.2003, the EUR recovering from its first visit to $1.19 levels since early January.

For the Pound, economic data scheduled for release out of the UK is limited to April’s construction PMI that is forecasted reflect a sector bouncing back into growth following March’s contraction. March’s contraction had been attributed to adverse weather conditions, though disappointing manufacturing PMI numbers released on Tuesday suggest that there may have been more to it. A rebound would provide the Pound with some support, but not enough to shift sentiment towards monetary policy.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down 0.07% to $1.3605, things just going from bad to worse for the bulls following Tuesday’s 1.08% tumble.

Across the Pond, it’s a big day for the U.S Dollar, with April’s ADP nonfarm employment change figure scheduled for release ahead of the U.S session and the FOMC announcing its monetary policy decision later in the day, with the release of the FOMC statement.

While the ADP nonfarm employment change figure will provide some immediate direction for the U.S Dollar, Friday’s government numbers are of far greater influence, leaving the FOMC Statement as the key driver for the Dollar through to Friday’s numbers.

Rising inflationary pressures, a continued tightening in labour market conditions, rising wage growth and improving economic indicators going into the 2nd quarter certainly support a hawkish FED, the only caution the FED might have being on fear of a trade war, as China and the U.S thrashing it out this week.

With the Dollar Spot now in positive territory year-to-date, there could be more to come, particularly if the markets begin to consider the possibility of a 5th.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down 0.10% to 92.358, direction through the day hinged on sentiment towards today’s FOMC statement.

NEO Technical Analysis – Going Bearish or Just Consolidating – 01/05/18

Key Highlights

  • NEO slid 7.47% on Monday, partially reversing Sunday’s 18.39% gain, to end the day at $83.97.
  • A start of the day intraday high $94.65 fell short of the day’s first major resistance level of $97.09, while NEO also managed to avoid the day’s first major support level of $80.4, with an intraday low $82.
  • In spite of a broad market sell-off, NEO managed to also hold off testing buyer appetite at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $81.3

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NEO Price Support

NEO tumbled 7.47% on Monday, partially reversing Sunday’s 18.39% gain, to end the day at $83.97. The day had started on a high note for NEO, moving through to an intraday high and new swing hi $94.65 within the first hour, before a morning slide that led NEO down to a morning low $83.5 pressured by the day’s cryptomarket wide sell-off.

The morning’s $83.5 low managed to avoid testing the day’s first major support level of $80.4 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $81.3, which provided some support for NEO through the middle part of the day, before a late in the day pullback saw NEO slide to a day low $82.

NEO’s slide through the day may have been on the heavier side relative to the other majors, but when factoring in Sunday’s rally through to $90 levels and hold above key support levels on Monday, NEO’s bullish trend looks more intact than most, the bullish trend having formed at 6th April’s swing lo $44.16.

At the time of writing, NEO was down 3.25% to $81.26, with the damage being made at the start of the day, NEO sliding from an opening $83.95 to a morning low $78.19, before recovering to $80 levels.

The moves through the start of the day saw NEO slide through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of 82.7 and first major support level of $79.1 before support kicked in, NEO tracking the broader market in the early hours.

For the day ahead, a breakout from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $82.7 would support a run at the morning’s $84.03 high, with any shift in sentiment across the broader market later in the day likely to see NEO make a move back towards $90 levels to bring the first major resistance level of $91.8 into play

Negative sentiment across the market through the 2nd half of the day could see NEO take a bigger bite out of Sunday’s gains, with the day’s 2nd major support level of $74.2 likely to come into play before any steadying.

As things stand, the steadying from the start of the day slide supports a second half of the day rebound, with buying appetite likely to build at $82 levels, NEO’s bullish trend needing more than a Tuesday morning tumble to be reversed.

NEO 1H Chart
NEO 1H Chart

Looking at the Technical Indicators

  • Major Support Level: $79.1
  • Major Resistance Level: $91.8
  • Fib 23.6% Retracement Level: $82.7
  • Fib 38% Retracement Level: $75.4
  • Fib 62% Retracement Level: $63.5

The Bitcoin Bears Come out of Hiding, Taking $10,000 of the Table

Bitcoin slipped 1.72% on Monday, reversing Sunday’s 0.69% gain, to end the day at $9,237.9, an afternoon bounce back failing to hold as investors locked in profits in fear of a deeper sell-off in the days ahead.

An early morning move through to a day high $9,450 reversed through the first part of the day, Bitcoin falling to a day low $9,100, while holding above the day’s first major support level of $9,075.27 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996.

An afternoon recovery bucked the trend across the broader market, with Bitcoin managing to move through to an afternoon high $9,350 before easing back to sub-$9,300 levels by the day’s end, key resistance levels left untested through the day.

In spite of the day’s losses, Bitcoin held up relatively well compared with its peers and Bitcoin Cash in particularly, which slid 6.43% on the day, though the fall saw the prospects of a move through to $10,000 levels diminish this week, a bottoming out needed for a fresh rally to ensue and bring $10,000 back into play.

There was no particularly negative news to bring Bitcoin and the broader markets down, the bull trend from the 6th April’s swing low $6,500.2 leading to some profit taking at the end of the month.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 2.92% to $8,970.4 as Bitcoin caught up with the broader market sell-off at the start of the day, tumbling from an opening $9,240.6 to a morning low $8,876.8 before a partial recovery.

The morning slide saw Bitcoin fall through the day’s first major support level of $9,075.27, 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996 before support kicked in at the 2nd major support level of $8,912.6, buyers drawn in despite the negative sentiment across the broader market, though not enough to pull Bitcoin back through to $9,000 levels.

For the day ahead, Bitcoin will need to move back through to $9,000 levels and break free of the day’s first major support level of $9,075.27 to give Bitcoin and the broader market a sentiment boost and the chance of an afternoon rally to reverse Monday’s losses.

Failing to move back through to $9,100 levels could see Bitcoin struggle to hold on to $9,000 through the afternoon, with the morning’s slide through the 2nd support level of $8,912.63 bringing the 3rd major support level of $8,562.63 and 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $8,519 into play later in the day.

While the bull trend formed back on 6th April remains intact, the lack of a new swing hi since 25th April’s $9,767.4 has left the run a little tired, contributing to the profit taking at the end of the month, a move back through to $9,500 levels needed to revive the extended run.

Unsurprisingly, the Cboe Bitcoin Futures May contract tracked Bitcoin into the red, down $390 to $8,970, with volumes continuing to rise, whilst yet to have a material influence on investor sentiment across the broader market.

Elsewhere, Waves bucked the trend through the early morning, up 3.53%, while the rest of the majors saw red, Monero and Bitcoin Cash amongst the biggest losers at the start of the day.

BTC/USD 01/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 01/05/18

Bitcoin Cash Takes a Hit

Bitcoin Cash went into reverse at the start of the week, falling 6.43% to end the day at $1,348, more than offsetting Sunday’s 3.69% gain.

The day started as it ended on Monday, with Bitcoin Cash sliding to a morning low $1,370.8, with any hopes of an afternoon rebound evaporating through the middle of the day, as Bitcoin Cash slid through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5 to a late in the day $1,330 low. The early fall through the day’s first major support level of $1,370.2 had added further downward pressure on Bitcoin Cash, with the broad market sell-off seeing buyers on the side lines at key support levels.

For the bulls, the only good news was a partial recovery to end the day above the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level, while failing to move back through the first major support level.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 5.23% to $1,277, as the Monday slide spilled into the early hours of Tuesday morning, Bitcoin Cash sliding to a start of the day $1,243.4, its first visit to $1,200 levels since Thursday’s $1,236.2 low.

For the day ahead, it’s going to be damage limitation early on, with the morning slide having already seen Bitcoin Cash slide through the day’s first major resistance level of $1,302.07 and 2nd major resistance level of $1,256.13 before a partial recovery.

A move back through to $1,290 would support a break out from the day’s first major support level, while a move back through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5 would need sentiment across the broader market to improve through the early part of the morning.

While the bullish trend formed back at the 6th April’s swing lo $600.1 remains intact, failing to move back through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level could begin to see the formation of a bearish trend ahead of this month’s hard fork.

BCH/USD 01/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Litecoin gives up $150 Levels

Litecoin slipped 3.3% on Monday, reversing Sunday’s 1.01% gain, to end the day at $148.18.

There was no escaping the start of the week sell-off, investors locking in profits from the previous week, with Litecoin taking a hit at the start of the day, falling to a morning low $149. The day’s first major support level of $148.92 saw little buying interest, with the broader market sentiment leaving buyers on the side lines, to leave Litecoin on the slide through the afternoon to an intraday low $147.06 late in the day.

For the bulls, holding above the 2nd major support level of $144.48 and 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $145.33 was the positive from the day, with the bullish trend intact in spite of the day’s slide.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down 2.7% to $144.32, Monday’s late in the day slide continuing into the early hours of this morning, with Litecoin hitting an early $142.73 low.

Negative sentiment across the broader market gave Litecoin little cushion at key support levels, with Litecoin falling through the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level and the day’s first and second major support levels, before moving back through the 2nd support level of $142.95 to current levels.

For the day ahead, a move back through the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $145.33 and the day’s first major support level of $145.56 will be key to bring an end to the current sell-off, though investors will likely be wary of coming back in before a shift in sentiment across the broader market.

A move back through to $145 levels would support a recovery this morning, with any run at $150 levels in the hands of sentiment across the broader market, with Bitcoin likely to be the market barometer for the day.

Failing a late morning recovery, sub-$140 support levels could come into play. A fall through the day’s 3rd major support level of $136.22 would signal the beginning of a reversal to the bullish trend formed back on 6th April. We would expect support at $140 to avoid such a move however, with $140 likely to be considered a good entry price.

LTC/USD 01/05/18 Hourly Chart

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Ripple sees sub-$0.80 Levels

Ripple’s XRP slid 3.93% on Monday, eating into the weekend’s gains, to end the day at $0.83234.

After a promising start to the day, with a move through to an intraday high $0.88065, the broad market sell-off took its toll, with Ripple’s XRP falling through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477 and first major support level of $0.8252 to a morning low $0.82428, before an afternoon sell-off.

Ripple’s XRP slid to a day low $0.81355 late in the day before a partial recovery by the day’s end, the positive for the day being a hold above the day’s 2nd major support level of $0.7751 and 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $0.7731.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down 3.86% to $0.79968, the late Monday sell-off carrying on into the early hours of this morning, leading Ripple’s XRP through the day’s first major support level of $0.8037 to a morning low $0.78116 before moving back to $0.79 levels and a look at breaking back through the day’s first major support level.

For the day ahead, a move back through to $0.80 levels would provide some comfort, though for a more sustained recovery, Ripple’s XRP will need to make a move through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477, such a move in the hands of sentiment across the broader market.

Today’s not a day about the Ripple team’s successes and the adoption of Ripple’s platform, the more cautious investor keen to avoid getting caught in another sell-off that saw Ripple’s XRP fall to the 6th April’s swing lo $0.45716.

Failure to move through to $0.80 levels and break out from the day’s first major support level of $0.8037 will likely bring the day’s 2nd major support level of $0.7751 and 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $0.7731 into play. While we would expect support at $0.77 levels, deep red across the market could see Ripple’s XRP take a bigger hit later in the day.

Following Monday’s fall and the bad start to the day, it’s certainly a day for caution.

XRP/USD 01/05/18 Hourly Chart

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