The Aussie Dollar Steadies after an RBA Wobble, with Focus now on the FED

Earlier in the Day:

Economic data released through the Asian session this morning was on the lighter side, limited to March building consents out of New Zealand and April’s AIG Manufacturing Index numbers out of Australia, with the RBA’s interest rate decision and release of the rate statement the main event of the morning.

For the Kiwi Dollar, building consents surged by 14.7% in March, following February’s upwardly revised 6.4% increase. The stats had a muted impact on the Kiwi Dollar, which has been under the cosh as the markets get hawkish ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.70345 to $0.70341 upon release of the figures, before rising to $0.7036 at the time of writing, up 0.01% for the day.

For the Aussie Dollar, the AIG Manufacturing Index slipped from 63.1 to 58.3 in April, the stats coming out ahead of the RBA’s monetary policy decision.

  • Five of the seven activity sub-indexes expanded in April, but at a slower pace than in March, though new orders, production and sales held above 60, supporting a positive outlook for growth over the near-term.
  • The exports sub-index contracted, with employment slowing in the month.
  • Six of the eight sub-sectors reached record highs in trend terms.
  • Input prices slipped, while holding above 60, with the wages sub-index also easing, while holding above the long-run average.
  • While input prices and wages were on the softer side, selling prices were on the rise, providing some hopes of a pickup in inflationary pressure following the disappointing 1st quarter numbers.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.75297 to $0.75341 upon release of the figures, the softer headline figure having a muted impact with new order and production figures continuing to point to positive growth outlook.

The RBA held rates unchanged as had been forecasted, with the tone of the rate statement the key driver for the Aussie Dollar this morning.

Key points from the rate statement included:

  • Inflation remains low and in line with the Bank’s expectations and likely to remain low for some time, reflecting low growth in labour costs and strong competition in retailing.
  • Bank expects growth to pick up to average over 3% in 2018 and 2019, which should reduce some spare capacity in the economy.
  • While business conditions are positive and non-mining business investment is on the rise, uncertainty over the outlook for household consumption remains, in spite of a pickup towards the end of last year.
  • Household income has been growing slowly and debt levels are high.
  • Employment has grown strongly over the last 12-months, and while the pace of hiring has slowed in recent months, forward looking indicators continue to point to solid growth ahead, though wage growth is expected to remain low for a while yet.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.75391 to $0.7542 upon release of the statement, recovering from an initial dip to $0.75327, the statement painting a positive outlook for the economy.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR, there are no stats scheduled for release, with the markets closed for Labour Day, leaving market sentiment towards monetary policy divergence to provide direction in what is likely to be a thin day on the trading side, the only upside for the EUR at present being rumblings over the U.S pulling out of the Iran nuclear agreement.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down 0.02% to $1.2075, with $1.19 levels on the horizon should the FED deliver a hawkish outlook on Wednesday.

For the Pound, economic data scheduled for release includes April’s manufacturing PMI. Following a disappointing 1st quarter, the markets will be looking for private sector PMI numbers to bounce back to support a 2nd quarter rebound, any soft numbers likely to weigh further on the Pound, ahead of the key service sector PMI number on Thursday.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down 0.01% to $1.3761, with sentiment towards monetary policy and the British government’s Brexit woes pinning back any recovery. April’s PMI numbers could see a shift in sentiment towards policy, but the numbers are going to have to be impressive to have any influence on the BoE.

Across the Pond, stats out of the U.S include the market’s preferred April ISM manufacturing PMI, together with April’s finalized Markit manufacturing PMI numbers. Forecasts point to a slight softening in the headline ISM number, though nothing to warrant any major concerns or influence the tone of tomorrow’s FOMC statement, barring something dire.

The Dollar Spot Index was up 0.01% to 91.854, with today’s stats and views ahead of tomorrow’ FOMC the key drivers for the day, while the Redbook is also scheduled for release to provide further direction through the day.

Across the border, stats out of Canada include GDP figures together with April’s manufacturing PMI. While an uptick in growth figures will provide support for the Loonie, April’s manufacturing PMI numbers will also be key, with any pickup in wholesale price inflation and positive new order figures a positive for the Loonie this afternoon.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up 0.15% to C$1.2824, finding support from a pickup in crude oil prices in the early part of the day.

DASH Technical Analysis – Support in Demand – 30/04/18

Key Highlights

  • DASH slipped 0.22% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 6.14% gain, to end the day at $497.74.
  • Sunday’s intraday high $509.9 fell short of the first major resistance level of $512.3.
  • A morning pullback saw DASH hit an intraday low $477.94, slipping through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $485.23 to also call on support at the day’s first major support level of $477.7.

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DASH Price Support

For the week, DASH managed to draw out a 5.72% gain, in spite of a failure through the weekend to hold on to $500 levels and continue to fall well short of last Tuesday’s swing hi $547.97.

A morning high $509.9 was the only major positive for the day, with a morning sell-off across the broader market weighing on DASH that slid to an intraday low $477.94 to call on support at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $485.23 and first major support level of $477.69.

DASH’s 2nd half of the day recovery to a day’s end $497.74 was driven more from a market-wide move than from demand for DASH in particular, the recovery minor relative to some of its peers, a need to call for support and a failure to test the day’s major resistance levels questioning the current bullish trend that was formed at 6th April’s swing lo $282.11.

As investors trawl through the cryptomarket looking for opportunistic investments, it’s certainly easy to be left behind on any given day, particularly when some of the cryptos have more to offer than others on a bullish day.

The good news is that DASH’s rebound from 6th April’s swing lo $282.11 has fully reversed the bearish trend that had been formed in late March, though there will be concerns on whether the current bullish trend is beginning to wane.

At the time of writing, DASH was down 2.23% to $488.574, with the broader market going into reverse early in the day, investors looking to lock in profits from the previous week.

A start of the day moves through to a morning high $501.259 came up against strong resistance at the $500 psychological level, leaving DASH short of the day’s first major resistance level of $512.5.

DASH slid to a morning low $483.89 in the last hour, falling through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $485.23, with the broader market reversal leaving DASH exposed to further declines, bringing the day’s first major support level of $480.5 into play this morning.

A move back through to the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level would support a run back through to $500 levels to bring the first major resistance level back into play, failing to break out from $485 levels likely to see DASH under pressure, before a possible rebound in the afternoon.

Should Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash fail to rebound from the morning’s reversal, DASH could see a further pullback to the day’s first major support level of $480.5, while sub-$480 levels will likely be avoided through the day.

The bullish trend formed back at 6th April’s swing low $282.11 remains intact, with DASH having steadied the ship following last Wednesday’s slide, though DASH will need to move back through to $500 levels this week and hold to avoid a further pullback and see a reversal of the current bullish trend.

DASH 1H Chart
DASH 1H Chart

Looking at the Technical Indicators

  • Major Support Level: $480.5
  • Major Resistance Level: $512.5
  • Fib 23.6% Retracement Level: $485.23
  • Fib 38% Retracement Level: $446.41
  • Fib 62% Retracement Level: $383.67

Bitcoin Down but not Out, an Afternoon Rally on the Cards

Bitcoin gained just 0.69% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 4.74% rally, to end the day at $9,409.4. The weekend’s positive moves saw Bitcoin log a 7.03% rise for the week, Monday through Friday, trailing Bitcoin Cash by quite a margin.

An early morning intraday high $9,565.1 saw Bitcoin fall short of the day’s first major resistance level of $9,645.27, bucking the trend among the other majors, with Bitcoin continuing its struggle to move through to $10,000 levels.

Bitcoin saw a pullback through the morning to a day low $9,180, with Bitcoin managing to avoid falling back through to sub-$9,000 levels for the first time since Tuesday.

With the day’s first major support level of $8,895.27 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996 left untested, the bullish trend continued in spite of the stiff competition from Bitcoin Cash that continues to see increased support and adoption.

For now, Bitcoin’s short comings have certainly not led to a shift in appetite to altcoins that have more to offer in the real world, though one does wonder how long Bitcoin has left at the top with the growing adoptions of the likes of Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple’s XRP to consider.

With Bitcoin’s value, mining support will certainly continue until the remaining 20% of the unmined coins have been mined and hit the cryptoworld. What happens after that will be anyone’s guess, but logic suggests that support for the network could have an untimely demise barring enhancements to the protocol that improve its offering, particularly Bitcoin’s block size that continues to hamper its usage as an alternative to fiat money.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 0.95% to $9,311, reversing Sunday’s gain early on. An early fall through to a morning low $9,242.1 came within reach of the day’s first major support level of $9,204.57, before moving back to $9,300 levels. A start of the day $9,450 high falling well short of the day’s first major resistance level of $9,589.67, as investors locked in profits from the previous week ahead of a week where the bulls will be vying for $10,000.

For the day ahead, holding above the day’s first major support level will be key to see Bitcoin make a move later in the day, the next target for Bitcoin being a return to $9,500 levels and a run at last week’s swing hi $9,767.4.

While we can expect a choppy morning, sub-$9,000 levels will likely be avoided, barring materially negative news hitting the wires, the bullish trend formed back on 6th April intact following the positive moves last week.

Across in the futures market, the Cboe Bitcoin Futures May contract was up $200 to $9,340. While the futures market has provided little direction in recent weeks, a pickup in volumes should begin to have investors turning to the market for direction, though whether this will be a good thing remains to be seen, the Futures market yet to make any bullish calls to drive Bitcoin to higher ranges.

Elsewhere in the cryptomarket, Monero’s XMR was the worst performer, down 4.01%, while Ethereum was down just 0.87%.

BTC/USD 30/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 30/04/18

Bitcoin Cash Gets Moving

Bitcoin Cash gained 3.69% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 4.63% rise, to end the day at $1,442.5, the moves breaking a recent trend of alternate gains and losses to end the week up 21.1%.

Through the day, an intraday high $1,492.4 came within the early part of the day, breaking through the first and second major resistance levels before taking a mid-morning tumble to a day low $1,358.

For the crypto bulls, the day’s low managed to steer clear of the first major support level of $1,331.03 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5, while ending the day above the first major resistance level of $1,437.63, supporting the current bull trend. In spite of the gains through week however, $1,500 levels remained elusive for a 5th consecutive day.

There’s been little to no bad news for Bitcoin Cash. News of wider acceptance of Bitcoin Cash, that is not only seeing its community grow ahead of next month’s fork, but is also being increasingly adopted by merchants around the world, has certainly provided support to the recent drive. The greater the degree of adoption by merchants, the more rapidly the Bitcoin Cash community will likely grow and with it Bitcoin Cash and its move to become the mainstream competitor to fiat money.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 2.33% to $1,407.1, with the cryptomarket going into the red at the start of the week, partially reversing the weekend’s gains.

An early fall through to a morning low $1,390.2 held above the day’s first major support level of $1,370.2 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5, with the day’s major resistance levels untested early on in the morning.

For the day ahead, holding above key support levels should see Bitcoin Cash move back through to $1,400 levels and support a move back towards $1,500 to bring the day’s first major resistance level of $1,503.6 into play.

Any moves through the resistance level will be dependent upon sentiment across the broader market, while support continues to come from the coming month’s hard fork ever present.

Failing to make a run at $1,500 levels should leave Bitcoin Cash hovering at around current levels by the day’s end, investors unlikely to be pulling out with 2-weeks left to run before the hard fork.

BCH/USD 30/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Litecoin holds on to $150

Litecoin gained 1.01% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 4.06% rise, to end the day at $153.35, logging a 4.62% gain for the week, the weekend’s rally managing to recover losses from the middle of the week.

Moves through the day were in line with Bitcoin and the broader market, an intraday high 156.39 coming in the early hours, with Litecoin breaking through the day’s first major resistance level of $154.84 before pulling back through the late morning.

Litecoin’s late morning $148.22 low held above the day’s first major support level of $146.9, whilst sliding through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $153.18.

A 2nd half of the day recovery saw Litecoin recover to $150 levels, closing the day above the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level to continue supporting the current bullish trend.

Litecoin has also found increased acceptance, as cryptocurrencies become more widely accepted in order to make payments in place of traditional banking platforms, the race to become the true cryptocurrency and alternative to fiat money now gaining momentum.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down 1.08% to $151.59, with an early fall to a morning low $150.61 finding plenty of support at the $150 psychological level, leaving the day’s first major support level of $148.92 untested, while also finding support at around the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $153.18.

A move back through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level would support a run at the day’s first major resistance level of $157.09, though for any moves through to $160 levels, a broad based market rally is going to be needed, the crypto majors having been tracking each other closely in recent sessions.

Failure to hold at current levels and make a run at $157 levels could see Litecoin come under pressure through the morning, bringing the first major support level of $148.92 into play, though for Litecoin to close out the day at sub-$150, sentiment will need to shift considerably through the day, the current bullish trend still intact from early in the month.

LTC/USD 30/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Ripple Holds Steady

Ripple’s XRP gained just 0.53% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 7.56% rally, to end the day at $0.86886, logging in a 1.25% gain for the week, Monday through Sunday.

The good news for the day was breaking back into $0.90 levels for the first time since Wednesday’s $0.93193 high off the back of which Ripple’s XRP took a tumble to just hold on to $0.80 levels before a recovery through the 2nd half of the week.

Sunday’s high $0.91466 saw Ripple’s XRP break through the first major resistance level of $0.9107, while falling well short of the 2nd resistance level, with a mid-morning reversal to an intraday low $0.8262 calling on support through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477, buyers holding off a more material decline through to the 1st major support level of $0.8045 to bring sub-$0.70 into play.

A 2nd half of the day rally, supported by improved broader market sentiment, saw Ripple’s XRP recover, while failing to move back through to the day’s high to bring $1.00 levels into play for the day.

While Ripple’s XRP saw relatively lacklustre gains for the week, platform adoption across the financial sector and wider availability on exchanges in key markets will continue to be the key drivers for Ripple’s XRP. Investors will be looking out for news of exchanges announcing inclusion and an increase in trade pairings, the combination of two supporting the bullish projections for the year should things go according to plan.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down 1.54% to $0.85284, with an early move through to a morning high $0.88065 going into reverse, the pullback across the broader market ultimately weighing in the early part of the day.

A fall through to a morning low $0.84112 held above the day’s first major support level of $0.8285, with buying appetite kicking in at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477 to support a move back through to $0.85 levels.

For the day ahead, holding above major support levels will be key to support a run at the day’s first major resistance level of $0.9136, though for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $0.90 levels for a 2nd consecutive day, Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash will need to see early losses reversed through the middle part of the day.

A continued reversal could see Ripple’s XRP test the day’s first major support level of $0.8252, though we would expect sub-$0.80 support levels to be left untested, the morning fall attributed more to profit taking than a material shift in sentiment across the cryptomarket.

XRP/USD 30/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Inflation Data Keeps the USD front and Centre ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC Decision

Earlier in the Day:

Economic data through the Asian session this morning was on the lighter side, but certainly not lacking influence, with key stats including April’s private sector PMI figures out of China, business confidence numbers out of New Zealand and new home sales and private sector credit figures out of Australia.

For the Kiwi Dollar, According to the ANZ Business Confidence survey, confidence eased in April, with a net 23.4% of businesses being pessimistic about the year ahead, down 3 points from March, with all sectors in the red.

While the services sector was the least pessimistic, the agriculture sector was the most, while managing to see some improvement from March.

The construction sector saw the greatest deterioration, falling from 33 to 9.1, the lowest level since 2008.

In addition to confidence taking a hit, own activity also slid, with employment indicators mixed and expected profitability sliding to the lowest level since 2009.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.70868 to $0.70764 upon release of the figures, with both business and consumer confidence now having softened.

For the Aussie Dollar, new home sales fell by 2% in March, following February’s 0.7% decline to make it 3 consecutive months of decline, the declines coinciding with tighter lending restrictions.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.75761 to $0.75723 upon release of the figures, which coincided with the release of China’s private sector PMI numbers.

Out of China, April’s manufacturing PMI eased from 51.5 to 51.4, coming in ahead of a forecasted 51.3, while the service sector PMI rose from 54.6 to 54.8.

While the manufacturing PMI numbers was marginally softer, the continued expansion in the sector amidst the current trade spat between the U.S and China and Beijing’s attempts to curb debt and address pollution issues will have been taken as a positive, the only real concern in the numbers being softer exports in April.

While new home sales slipped in March, private sector credit increased by 0.5%, coming in ahead of a forecasted 0.4% rise, following February’s 0.4% increase.

Annual credit growth continues its downward trend, with tighter credit conditions weighing on investor housing credit, while business credit picked up, supporting the rise in March.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.75781 to $0.75706 upon release of the figures, as focus now shifts to the RBA’s interest rate decision and release of the rate statement tomorrow, disappointing inflation figures for the 1st quarter likely to leave the RBA in a holding pattern for the foreseeable future.

The dovish policy outlook left the Aussie Dollar down 0.25% to $0.7562 at the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar doing somewhat better, down just 0.08% to $0.7079.

Elsewhere the Japanese Yen slipped 0.06% to ¥109.11 against the Dollar at the time of writing, easing geo-political risk and better than expected PMI numbers out of China supporting market risk appetite through the session, leading to a pullback in demand for the safe havens.

In the equity markets, the Hang Seng led the way, up 1.51%, with the ASX200 up 0.53%, China and Japan’s markets closed for the day.

 

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR, economic data scheduled for release this morning includes retail sales figures out of German, together with prelim April inflation numbers out of Germany and Italy.

An expected bounce back in German retail sales at the end of the 1st quarter should provide the EUR with some support, though it’s going to boil down to the inflation numbers, as the market continues to look for signs of a pickup in inflationary pressure that could see policy divergence in favour of the Dollar narrow.

At the time of writing, the EUR was flat at $1.213, with market risk sentiment, today’s stats out of the Eurozone and a heavy set of stats out of the U.S later today key drivers.

For the Pound, there are no material stats scheduled for release, with focus this week being on April’s private sector PMI numbers. While 1st quarter GDP numbers were said to have all but removed the chances of a May rate hike, April’s PMI could confuse matters should the numbers impress. The softer 1st quarter had been attributed to adverse weather conditions through the 1st quarter, this week’s figures will confirm or deny the view and whether pricing out a rate hike in May left the Pound oversold.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.02% to $1.3784, with Brexit and outlook towards monetary policy continuing to be the two key drivers, neither having been too supportive of the Pound of late.

Across the Pond, it’s another busy economic calendar, with stats out of the U.S this afternoon including the FED’s preferred March Core PCE Price Index figures, together with personal spending and pending home sales. Focus will be on the inflation figures, with anything in line with or better than a forecasted uptick to 1.8% supporting the Dollar, personal spending also expected to impress.

First quarter growth was certainly not as bad as some had feared, paving the way for a more hawkish FED this Wednesday should March’s inflation figures impress.

The Dollar Spot Index was flat at 91.54 at the time of writing, 10-year Treasury yields sitting at 2.96% ahead of today’s open and the release of today’s figures that could see yields bounce back to 3% this afternoon.

Across the border, the Loonie is also in action this afternoon, with March’s RMPI figures scheduled for release, though the stats are unlikely to see the Loonie recover recent losses, the Bank of Canada having managed to reverse the Loonie’s gains from earlier in the month.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down 0.13% to C$1.2845 against the Dollar, with falling crude oil prices and today’s stats out of the U.S likely to drive market sentiment through the day.

Bitcoin Cash Next Hard Fork: Good or Bad?

The hard fork talk saw Bitcoin Cash rally to an April high $1,578.3 from early April’s $600.1 low, with the 15th May hard fork getting plenty of airtime this month, coinciding with the passing of the U.S tax deadline in mid-April and a relatively quiet period from a regulatory news perspective.

When compared with the direction of Bitcoin through the month, it’s very evident that the announced hard fork contributed to the gains as Bitcoin up just 50% since April’s $6,500.2 low, paling in comparison to Bitcoin Cash’s 163% bounce.

There have been plenty of debate over whether Bitcoin can continue to hold on to the top spot or whether Bitcoin Cash can force its way through, transaction speeds and fees ultimately the key area of focus when it comes to a cryptocurrency looking to go mainstream to compete with fiat money in the real world.

What’s Gonna Happen?

The Bitcoin Cash hard fork, which has been labeled Bitcoin ABC, will increase Bitcoin Cash’s block size from 8MB to a whopping 32MB. In addition to the significant increase in the block size, the fork will also remove the SegWit protocol.

Unlike the Bitcoin hard forks that have resulted in Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, and even Bitcoin Diamond, the planned Bitcoin Cash fork has come from a collaborative effort to improve on Bitcoin Cash’s offerings resulting from the August 2017 hard fork.

As far as the ABC Team and the Bitcoin Cash community is concerned, it’s all about delivering upgrades that support the network to process more transactions, with other functionalities also thrown in to make it even more attractive than market leader Bitcoin.

The reactivation of smart contracts that had been deactivated on Bitcoin’s network, will be an added feature, which is similar to the ERC-20 token feature used in ICOs on the Ethereum network.

Transaction times are expected to improve to under 3-minutes per transaction, which is significantly faster than Bitcoin’s 10 minutes.

The inclusion of smart contracts allow the Bitcoin Cash community to store, archive and track the record of assets that have been digitalized, including but not limited to titles to property, vehicles, stocks and just about anything else that has a deed or title associated with ownership.

Other upgrades that are anticipated in next month’s hard fork include:

  • Time stamping data, the upgrade allowing users to digitize and add documents to the blockchain to permanently record their existence within the Bitcoin Cash ledger.
  • Upper turn size increase from 40 to 220 bytes, need to facilitate the archiving of documents on the blockchain, which are not verified by miners and result in the creation of colored coins.

The hard fork is certainly an ambitious one, with the ABC Team looking to deliver the crypto community with a one-stop shop blockchain that, is not only a more viable alternative to Bitcoin as an alternative to fiat money, but also competes against the likes of Litecoin with transaction times and Ethereum with its smart contract capabilities, the need for the significantly larger blockchain being to not only improve transaction times, but to also to cater for the additional features that will be released in the hard fork upgrade.


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If You Own Bitcoin Cash…

The anticipated enhancements to Bitcoin Cash will certainly have contributed to the April rally, but as had been the case with the Bitcoin hard forks of 2017 and Litecoin’s hard fork this year, the news wires continuing to suggest that a new coin would not result and be given to those holding Bitcoin Cash coins at the time of the hard fork.

Successful adoption of the new upgrades will leave existing coin holders with an improved, but not new blockchain.

If the movements across the other cryptocurrencies are anything to go by, underlying capabilities of a particular blockchain tech have yet to become the primary focus of investors. Speculative investor disappointment could see Bitcoin cash take a tumble following the hard fork, in the event that new coins are not created and the upgrades are adopted by the Bitcoin Cash community.

A hold at current levels post fork, could ultimately bring Bitcoin Cash to the front of the pack, though much will depend upon how quickly users take on the offerings and users begin to store and archive titles and document, while also increasing the use of Bitcoin Cash as an alternative currency in the real world.

One thing is for certain and that is the fact that the Bitcoin Cash community is not going to sit back and let Bitcoin Cash gather dust. One can anticipate continued upgrades along the way as the Bitcoin Cash community search for a competitive edge that would leave the likes of Bitcoin and Ethereum in its wake.

Is the real world ready to store anything and everything in digital format on a platform that has only really drawn the attention of the non-crypto world over the past 12-months?

Time will tell, but it is the way of the future and, with banks and institutions have already adopted the technology for various functions, including international wire transfers in place of the likes of SWIFT, it should only be a matter of time. If it’s good enough for money transfers, it’s ultimately going to be good enough for titles and anything else important to be stored or archived on a decentralized platform that cannot be manipulated. The Bitcoin community is moving forward, trying to improve and overcome Bitcoin. It’s a coin competition and improvements will be coming constantly.

U.S Mortgage Rates Surge to 4-Year Highs

A jump in 10-year U.S Treasury yields to 3% off the back of a continued build-up of inflationary pressure from rising commodity prices and increasing expectations of a 4th rate hike for the year, saw 30-year fixed-rate mortgages jump 11 basis points to 4.58%, the highest level since August 2013

Economic data through the week eased concerns over the U.S economy entering an extended soft path, with both service and manufacturing sector activity picking up at the start of the 2nd quarter, the weekly jobless claims hitting levels not seen since the late 1960s and the U.S trade balance seeing a sizeable narrowing in March. With consumer confidence coming in ahead of expectations and recovering from a fall in March, the outlook for consumer spending also looks positive and favoring the outlook for the economy and inflation.

The continued rise in commodity prices, which has seen the Bloomberg Commodity Index gain 2.33% for the current month and the rise in crude oil prices, WTI up 12.5% year-to-date, has added to the upbeat sentiment towards inflation that has seen the markets increasingly price in a 4th rate hike for the year.

In spite of the continued upward trend in mortgage rates, demand for mortgages has certainly not eased, with an ever-tightening labour market and pickup in the pace of wage growth driving new home sales at the end of the 1st quarter, new up sales up 4% in March, off the back of a 3.6% rise in February.

While a shortage of inventory continues to be an issue, existing home sales were also on the rise in March, up 1.1%, following a 3% rise in February, home buyers undeterred by 30-year fixed mortgage rates having risen by an average 55 basis points over the last year, current levels still considered attractive when compared with historical rates.

The rise in sales will continue to add upward pressure on house prices that, when combined with the upward trend on mortgage rates, will weigh on the pockets of prospective home buyers and influence the decision making process.

Freddie Mac rates for new mortgages last week were quoted to be:

  • 30-year fixed rate loan jumped from 4.47% to 4.58% last week, while up from 4.03% a year ago.
  • 15-year fixed rates rose from 3.94% to 4.02% last week, while up from 3.27% from a year ago.
  • 5-year fixed rates increased from 3.67% to 3.74% over the week, while up from last year’s 3.12%.

Mortgage Bankers’ Association Rates for last week were quoted to be:

  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed, backed by the FHA increased from 4.70% to 4.71%, continuing to move back towards the 7-year high hit last month.
  • The average interest rate for 30-year fixed with conforming loan balances rose from 4.66% to $4.73%, hitting the highest level since Sept-13.
  • Average 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances jumped from 4.53% to 4.64%, hitting the highest level since Jan-14.

Weekly figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, which is a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell by 0.2%, following the previous week’s 4.9% rise week-on-week. The marginal decline considered negligible when factoring in the upward trend in mortgage rates, supporting the positive March existing and new home sales figures released last week.

The Refinance Index also fell, down 0.3%, following the previous week’s 4% rise, with the refinance share of mortgage activity falling further to 37.2% of total applications, the lowest level since Sep-08 and down from the previous week’s 37.6%, the downward trend continuing.

The dilemma for prospective home buyers continues to become ever more challenging, with last week’s surge a warning of how quickly rates can move as sentiment towards inflation shifts, the lack of inflationary pressure having pinned back mortgage rates in recent years.

Recent economic data has eased concerns over the U.S economy and, with the talk of a trade war easing, it could be full steam ahead for the U.S economy in the 2nd quarter. Friday’s GDP numbers out of the U.S were better than expected and, with the U.S economy tending to fare better as the year progresses, 2.3% growth is certainly not a bad baseline going into the 2nd quarter, all of which continues to support the upward trend in borrowing costs. It’s not just mortgages that are getting hit, but also other borrowing costs, making it advisable to pay down loans and credit cards sooner rather than later in order to minimize the impact of rising borrowing costs on disposable incomes.

For the week ahead, it’s another hectic economic calendar, with inflation, personal spending and private sector PMI numbers scheduled for release ahead of the all-important nonfarm payroll and wage growth figures on Friday. The FED will also be making its May monetary policy decision on Wednesday and, while few are expecting rates to be raised, the FOMC statement will likely have an influence, positive economic data and a likely rise in inflation supporting a more hawkish statement.

All things considered, mortgage rates could well be on the rise again in the coming week, though the Oval Office is more than capable of overshadowing the FED and economic data should the need arise.

Bitcoin $10,000 – This weekend or next?

Bitcoin gained 4.74% on Saturday, reversing Friday’s 4.1% fall, to end the day at $9,342.9. The week’s see-saw continuing, with Bitcoin having been unable to string 2 consecutive days of gains together since Monday and Tuesday’s moves that ultimately ended in a reversal on Wednesday.

In spite of the intraweek falls, the good news is that Bitcoin has managed to gain 6.3% for the current week, Monday through Friday and, more importantly, break back through to $9,000 levels and get ever closer to the much talked about $10,000.

Bitcoin’s intraday high $9,500 and low $8,750 came within the same minute through the early part of the morning, Bitcoin managing to reverse the slide through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996 to resume the upward momentum and hit a post spike high $9,437.6 before easing back to $9,342.9 by the day’s end.

For the Bitcoin bulls in search of $10,000, hitting $9,500 and ending the day above the first major resistance level of $9,216.87 was key, the first part of the weekend rally coming good, the next step being Bitcoin avoiding yet another reversal that has been the trend through much of the week.

The prospects of a Bitcoin Cash hard fork that is expected to deliver a competitive edge over Bitcoin has yet to be reflected in market appetite for the market barometer, though competition is certainly building, with Litecoin also being increasingly used as a payment alternative to fiat money.

Saturday’s gains continued to support the bullish trend formed at 6th April’s swing lo $6,500.2, while Bitcoin lags Bitcoin Cash for the week, Bitcoin up 6.3% compared with Bitcoin Cash’s 16.9% rally.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 1.01% to $9,440, with the Saturday rally continuing in the early part of the day.

A start of the day $9,565.1 high saw Bitcoin test the day’s first major resistance level of $9,645.27 before pulling back to $9,400 levels, the pullback considered relatively mild by normal standards to support a positive move through the morning.

A move back through the day’s high would support a run at the 2nd resistance level of $9,947.63 that should get the cryptomarkets particularly bullish, Bitcoin’s last attempt at $10,000 being thwarted at the 24th April’s swing hi $9,767.4.

While Bitcoin may be considered the market barometer, Bitcoin will likely find direction from Bitcoin Cash, another solid rally likely to be a positive for Bitcoin and ultimately the broader markets, any pullback attributed to profit taking rather than a shift in sentiment towards Bitcoin and the cryptomarket in general.

A pullback later in the day could see Bitcoin fall to test the day’s first major support level of $8,895.27, though we will expect Bitcoin to hold at $9,000 levels going into the new week that would continue to support the bullish trend formed at 6th April’s swing lo $6,500.2

Elsewhere, Bitcoin Cash was up 3.88%, while Waves led the way amongst the majors, up 21.1%, with Monero’s XMR and DASH the only majors to buck the trend early, down 1.52% and 0.17%.

BTC/USD 29/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 29/04/18

Bitcoin Cash Gets Moving

Bitcoin Cash gained 4.63% on Saturday, partially reversing Friday’s 6.53% slide, to end the day at $1,392.1.

The day was a relatively one directional one, with Bitcoin Cash seeing few reversals through the day, momentum across the cryptomarket supporting appetite, with an intraday low $1,315.5 coming at the start of the day leaving the day’s first major support level of $1,291.9 untested.

A break out from the 23.6% Fib Retracement Level of $1,347.5 within the first few hours supported a rally through to an intraday high $1,422.1 in the middle part of the day, Bitcoin Cash moving through the day’s first major resistance level of $1,393.4 with ease before pulling back to sub-$1,400 levels by the close.

Holding above the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level was key for the day, the Saturday move continuing to support the bullish trend formed back on 6th April.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 4.31% to $1,451.1, the early gains coming off the back of an overspill from Saturday’s rally.

Bitcoin Cash hit an early morning high $1,492.4 to break through the day’s first major resistance level of $1,437.63 and 2nd resistance level of $1,483.17 before a pullback to current levels, the moves in the early hours continuing to support the bull trend and a run at $2,000 levels.

For the day ahead, a break back through the 2nd resistance level of $1,483.17 would support a move back through to $1,500 levels and bring the 24th April’s swing hi $1,578.3 into play, a move needed to support Bitcoin Cash’s stellar run fuelled by next month’s hard fork.

Failing to break back through the 2nd resistance level could see a pullback to the sub-$1,400 levels by the day’s end, investors recently being on the quicker side to lock in profits from the previous day, though we would expect the day’s first major support level of $1,331.03 to remained untested, barring a material shift in sentiment later in the day, with the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5 there to provide support in an extended sell-off.

BCH/USD 29/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Litecoin Recovers to the $150s

Litecoin gained 4.06% on Saturday, partially reversing Friday’s 4.84% fall, to end the day at $151.82.

There was a lot of ground to make up through the day, with Litecoin having ended Friday at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $145.33, with Saturday’s intraday low $145 coming at the start of the day before a day long rally kicked in that saw Litecoin move through to an intraday high $152.94 and to within reach of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $153.18, before easing back to a $151.82 close.

While Litecoin had turned somewhat bearish in the week, Saturday’s moves reaffirmed the bullish trend formed on 6th April, with Saturday’s closing $151.82 holding above the day’s first major resistance level of $151.19.

News of an increased usage of Litecoin for payments has yet to materially impact the direction of Litecoin, with the jury still out on which of the cryptos is going to become the true alternative to fiat money, though with Ripple’s platform already active, increased usage could see Litecoin garner more interest following the failings of Litepay.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up 1.44% to $154.01, with a start of the day bounce through to an intraday high $156.39 seeing Litecoin break clear of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $153.18, while also breaking through the day’s first major resistance level of $154.84 on the day.

Some profit taking from Saturday’s gains and early morning rally will have pinned back Litecoin in the morning, though upbeat sentiment across the broader market should provide Litecoin with some support through to the afternoon, Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash ultimately the market barometers as the weekend comes to a close.

A move through to the morning’s $156.39 high would support a run at the 3rd major resistance level of $165.8 and 24th April’s swing hi $165.87, which will be considered key for Litecoin to continue its upward moves back towards $200 levels.

Failure to move through to $156 levels this morning could see Litecoin reverse Saturday and this morning’s gains to test the day’s first major support level of $146.9, with a fall through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level likely to also bring the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $145.33 back into play.

It’s bullish for now and we will expect the bull trend to remain intact, the increased use of Litecoin as an alternative payment option providing support.

LTC/USD 29/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Ripple makes a splash

Ripple’s XRP rallied 7.56% on Saturday, more than reversing Friday’s 5.32% fall, to end the day at $0.86609. Saturday’s gains saw Ripple’s XRP move back into positive territory for the week, Monday through Friday, Wednesday’s 14.7% slide having done plenty of damage this week.

Ripple XRP’s intraday low $0.7875 in the early part of Saturday was the only negative, with a break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477 by late morning supporting the continuation of the bullish trend formed at 6th April’s swing lo $0.45716.

While support levels were untested through the day, Ripple’s XRP broke through the first major resistance level of $0.8431 and 2nd major resistance level of $0.884 before easing back to $0.86 levels by the day’s end.

Holding above the day’s first major support level key to Ripple XRP’s bull trend.

There was no negative news to get in the way of Ripple XRP’s moves, with news hitting the wires of wider adoption of Ripple’s platform a positive, with talks of Ripple’s XRP taking the number one spot by the end of the year, a bullish but reasonable forecast, should the platform continue to see success and the cryptomarket avoids an implosion.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up 1.68% to $0.87712, with a bounce at the start of the day seeing a break through the first major resistance level of $0.9107 to an intraday high $0.92102, before pulling back to current levels.

For the day ahead, a break back through to $0.92 levels would support a run at the day’s 2nd resistance level of $0.9554, though with the markets lacking any major catalysts, we can expect plenty of resistance that would likely see Ripple’s XRP close at around current levels, investors likely to hit the sell-button early.

Failure to break the current downward moves could see Ripple’s XRP fall back through to this morning’s $0.86182 low and begin to reverse some of Saturday’s gains, though with the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477 there to draw in buyers, any reversal is unlikely to result in a material slide for the day that should leave Ripple’s XRP in positive territory for the week.

XRP/USD 29/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Bitcoin $10,000 – A weekend rally is all it needs

Bitcoin slipped 4.1% on Friday, reversing Thursday’s 4.71% gain, to end the day at $8,888.5, Friday’s fall leaving Bitcoin up just 1.1% for the week, Monday through Friday, to lag behind Bitcoin Cash’s 11.3% gain.

It was a mixed day for Bitcoin, which managed to rally to an intraday high $9,381.1 in the late morning, before an afternoon slide, with the day’s high falling short of the first major resistance level of $9,511.33.

An afternoon reversal saw Bitcoin fall an end of the day $8,888.5 low, with Bitcoin falling through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996 to test buying appetite going into the weekend, the end of day low coming within touching distance of the day’s first major support level of $8,855.53, Bitcoin having managed to avoid key support levels through the morning.

News of another large sell order for Bitcoin will have weighed late in the day, though with the bullish trend still intact, Bitcoin may well be able to stomach an in excess of $140m sale that would be considered orderly compared with some of the volatility seen of late.

In spite of the late in the day reversal, the bullish trend formed back at 6th April’s swing lo $6,500.2 continues to remain intact, despite a close at sub-$9,000 levels, an early move through the $9,000 levels needed over the weekend to give the bulls a chance at hitting $10,000.

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BTC/USD 28/04/18 Hourly Chart

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 2.68% to $9,159, with Bitcoin managing to break free of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996 at the start of the day to kick off the day with a bullish trend, moving through to a morning high $9,185 in the first few hours of the day.

While the day’s major support and resistance levels have been left untested, buying appetite at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996 was enough to drive Bitcoin to current levels, supported by positive moves across the broader markets.

Based on current sentiment, we would expect Bitcoin to move through to $9,2000 levels to test the day’s first major resistance level of $9,216.87, with general market sentiment to dictate whether Bitcoin can have a run at the 2nd resistance level of $9,545.23 and bring back the chatter of Bitcoin at $10,000.

Investors have been quick to lock in profits at the end of each day in the last week that has ultimately pinned Bitcoin back from stronger gains and hitting $10,000, any moves through to $10,000 this week, not only reinforcing the current bull trend formed at 6th April’s $6,500.2, but also likely to draw in side lined investors waiting for certain milestones before returning to the market.

Bitcoin Cash’s hard fork may dampen the outlook for Bitcoin, but until it loses the top spot, investors will continue provide support, the only downside for Bitcoin this weekend being the prospects of a $140m sale of Bitcoin on the market.

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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 28/04/18

Bitcoin Cash in need of a weekend rally

Bitcoin Cash saw yet another day of gains go into reverse on Friday, with a fall of 6.53% partially reversing Thursday’s 10.3% gain, to end the day at $1,326.1.

Friday’s intraday high $1,436.5 came in the earlier part of the day, with Bitcoin Cash falling short of the first major resistance level of $1,487.13, leading to a pullback through the afternoon to an intraday low $1,325, holding above the day’s first major support level of $1,295.73, whilst testing buying appetite at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5.

In spite of a choppy week, Bitcoin Cash was still up 11.3% from Monday through Friday, with improved appetite for the cryptomarkets providing the necessary support as the hard fork trade faded through the week, Bitcoin Cash having hit a swing hi $1,578.3 on Tuesday of last week.

For the bulls, Bitcoin Cash managed to hold off from testing support at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $1,204.6 to support the continued bullish trend, formed back at 6th April’s swing lo $600.1, though a move back through to the swing hi $1,578.3 is going to be needed to avoid a reversal ahead of next month’s fork.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 2.15% to $1,362.6, recovering from an early $1,315.5 low that through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5 to then rebound to a morning $1,369.8 high off the back of upbeat sentiment across the market through the early part of the day.

Major support and resistance levels were left untested through the morning, with Bitcoin Cash needing move back through to $1,400 levels to continue the latest bull trend, a move that would test the day’s first major resistance level of $1,393.4.

Failure to move back through to $1,400 levels could see Bitcoin Cash revisit the morning’s low and bring the day’s first major support level of $1,291.90, any broad market sell-off likely to see buying appetite ease at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level later in the day.

It’s still bullish, but following sizeable gains since 6th April swing lo, new highs are going to be needed to draw side lined investors back in.

BCH/USD 28/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Litecoin Getting Bearish

Litecoin slipped 4.84% on Friday, reversing most of Thursday’s 5.9% gain, to end the day at $145.68, Litecoin coughing up $150 levels once more in what has been a volatile week.

A start of the day intraday high $153.75 was one of the few highlights of the day, with Litecoin struggling to break clear of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $153.18 that ultimately led to a late reversal to an intraday low $145.29.

Litecoin found support at the first major support level of $145.62 and 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $145.33 to avoid further declines, while continuing to struggle to rebound and make a move back through to $150 levels by the close.

For the week, Monday through Friday, Litecoin was down 0.6%, with the latest bullish trend formed at 6th April’s swing low $112.1 being brought into question, Litecoin now down 13.9% from Tuesday’s swing hi $165.87.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up 1.24% to $147.71, in what’s been a relatively range bound start to the day, an early morning $145 low and $148.95 high leaving major support and resistance levels untested, while Litecoin continued to move between the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $153.18 and 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $145.33.

Falling through the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level would signal a possible shift in sentiment to the negative for Litecoin that would bring the day’s first major support level of $142.73 into play, any slide to sub-$140 levels considered to be a near-term bullish trend reversal.

A move back through the $150 levels to test the day’s first major resistance level of $151.19 would provide much needed support to the currently stalled bull trend, though much will depend upon the direction of the broader market and Bitcoin in particular.

LTC/USD 28/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Ripple Sees Red

Ripple’s XRP slid 5.32% on Friday, reversing most of Thursday’s 6.96% gain, to end the day at $0.84884.

Attempts to break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477 saw Ripple’s XRP hit an intraday high $0.86287 in the late morning, though with sentiment across the broader market negative through the afternoon, Ripple’s XRP shifted into reverse to hit an intraday low $0.80086 late in the day.

The good news for the bulls was that the day’s first major support level of $0.7857 was left untested, with Ripple’s hold at $0.80 levels continuing to support the bullish trend formed at 6th April’s swing lo $0.45716.

Where there’s good news, there’s always bad however and Ripple’s XRP’s close below the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477, will bring into question the current bull-run, if there’s now breakout through the weekend.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up 2.28% to $0.82359, with the key target for the early part of the day being to move clear of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477.

A start of the day low $0.79591 managed to avoid the day’s first major support level of $0.7811 and 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $0.7731, leading Ripple’s XRP to a morning high $0.83496 that came up short of the first major resistance level of $0.8431, with Ripple’s XRP having yet to break free of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level needed to resume the current bull trend.

For the day ahead, a move through to the day’s first major resistance level and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level to $0.85 levels would signal the start of a weekend rally, bringing 0.90 levels into play, while market appetite will need to see a vast improvement for $1.00 levels to be reached.

Failure to make a move through the middle part of the day could see Ripple’s XRP ease back to the morning’s low, bringing the first major support level of $0.7811 into play and the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $0.7731.

We would expect Ripple’s XRP to find some interest through the day, supporting a run at $0.90 levels before a pullback short of the day’s 3rd Resistance Level of $0.946.

XRP/USD 28/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Cardano’s ADA Technical Analysis – Bullish Trend at Risk – 27/04/18

Key Highlights

  • Cardano’s ADA gained 9.09% on Thursday, partially reversing Wednesday’s 12.39% fall, to end the day at $0.29399
  • A morning intraday low $0.256 held above the first major support level of $0.2494, while falling through the 23.6 FIB Retracement Level of $0.2775.
  • An end of day $0.29399 high came up short of the day’s first major resistance level of $0.3002.

Cardano’s ADA Price Support

Cardano’s ADA gained 9.09% on Thursday, partially reversing Wednesday’s 12.39% slide, to end the day at $0.29399.

A late sell-off on Wednesday spilled over into the early hours of Thursday, pulling Cardano’s ADA down to an intraday low $0.256, Cardano’s ADA falling through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.2775 to test buyer appetite at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $0.2512 before recovering through the afternoon to hit an intraday and end of day $0.29399 Cardano’s ADA fell short of $0.30 levels to test the day’s first major resistance level of $0.3002 and holding back a run at Wednesday’s day high $0.31078.

There was no materially negative news to influence the markets through the day, with Cardano’s ADA following the broader market trend through the day, the support at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level driven largely by generally more positive sentiment across the market.

For the bulls, the good news will have been the move clear of retracement levels by the day’s end, though for the bull trend formed at 6th April’s swing lo $0.14 to continue, a move back though to $0.30 levels will be needed later in the day today.

At the time of writing, Cardano’s ADA was down 2.39% to $0.286, the declines coming amidst a broad market sell-off in the early part of the day as investors locked in gains from Thursday.

The morning’s $0.2839 low and $0.29399 high left the day’s major support and resistance levels untested, with Cardano ADA’s hold above the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.2775 an important one with the broader market in the red.

For the day ahead, Cardano’s ADA would need to move through the start of the day’s $0.23999 high to have a run at the day’s first major resistance level of $0.3067 and Wednesday’s $0.31078 high, though sentiment will need to see significant improvement for Cardano’s ADA to move back through to $0.31 levels.

Failure to move through to $0.30 levels to test the day’s first major resistance level could see Cardano’s ADA take a bigger hit later this afternoon, though we can expect direction from Bitcoin through the day to have an influence on Cardano’s ADA and the broader market.

It’s been a mixed bag this week, but the bull trend remains intact and should support an afternoon recovery, barring negative news hitting the wires.

ADA/USDT 27/04/18 Hourly Chart

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $0.2687

Major Resistance Level: $0.3067

Fib 23.6% Retracement Level: $0.2775

Fib 38% Retracement Level: $0.2512

Fib 62% Retracement Level: $0.2088

Bitcoin Support Levels May Need to Be Tested to Fuel a Run at $10,000

Bitcoin gained 4.71% on Thursday, partially reversing Wednesday’s 8.28% slide, to end the day at $9,285.1, only the 2nd close at $9,000 levels since mid-March.

It was a mixed bag for Bitcoin through the day, with an intraday low $8,652.2 being hit within the first hour of the day, as a late Wednesday sell-off spilled into the early hours of Thursday.

The morning’s low held above the day’s first major support level of $8,486.07, while Bitcoin slid through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996 to call on support at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $8,519 that led to Bitcoin rallying in the late afternoon to hit a day high $9,308, breaking clear of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996 and, more importantly, back to $9,000 levels.

Thursday’s high fell short of the day’s first major resistance level of $9,488.37, though the late afternoon rally and move clear of the FIB Retracement Levels will continue to support the bullish trend formed at 6th April’s swing lo $6,500.2.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 0.81% to $9,149.9, with the broader market in the red through the start of the day, Bitcoin partially reversing gains made late on Thursday.

It’s been a relatively range bound start to the day, with Bitcoin’s intraday low $9,132 and high $9,320 leaving the day’s major support and resistance levels untested early on.

For the Bitcoin bulls, the continued hold at $9,000 levels and distance from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996 will continue to support the extended bullish trend formed in the first week of the month.

While the cryptos are in the red through the early part of the day, a move back through to $9,350 would support a run at the day’s first major resistance level of $9,511.33 and Wednesday’s swing hi $9,767.4 to bring $10,000 levels back into play going into the weekend.

Failure for Bitcoin to move back through Thursday’s high to test the day’s first major resistance level could see Bitcoin under pressure later in the day, a pullback through this morning’s $9,132 low bringing the day’s major support levels into play.

Buying appetite at the keys support levels would be dependent upon sentiment across the broader market, with Bitcoin having managed to hold off more material declines early on.

While we have seen a shift in sentiment towards Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin has continued to have an influence on direction for the broader market, with any upward move through the late morning likely to be reflected elsewhere, Stellar’s Lumen the only major in positive territory in the early part of the day, up 7.97% to $0.416.

Looking across at the Cboe Bitcoin Futures, the May contract was up $130 to $9,220, the gains being driven by Bitcoin’s hold at $9,000 levels rather than an early move by the futures market that would support a Bitcoin rally this afternoon.

The weekend is upon us and, while last week failed to deliver a weekend rally, the moves through the previous week having been sizeable, the choppiness of the week could inspire the bulls to take a run at $10,000 should sentiment not shift later today, the milestone key to continue fuelling the Bitcoin recovery.

BTC/USD 27/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 27/04/18

Bitcoin Cash Recovers as Volatility Builds

Bitcoin Cash rallied 10.26% on Thursday, reversing Wednesday’s 8.46% slide, to end the day at $1,421.2.

The move back through to $1,400 levels reaffirmed the bullish trend formed back at 6th April’s swing lo $600.1, with the day’s gain bringing to an end two consecutive days of decline that came off the back of investors locking in profits from the almost month long rally.

An intraday high $1,427.6 came late in the day to break through the day’s first major resistance level of $1,409.83, with Bitcoin Cash able to avoid a sell-off at the resistance level by the day’s end.

The day was a choppy one however, with Bitcoin Cash falling to a day low $1,236.2 at the start of the day to test buyer appetite at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $1,204.6 before an afternoon rally that saw Bitcoin Cash break clear of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5.

Bitcoin Cash managed to avoid testing the day’s first major support level of $1,295.73, which would have been the good news for the bulls after two consecutive days’ of decline.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 1.65% to $1,395.3, with a morning low $1,358.9 calling on support at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5, while managing to avoid a pullback to the day’s first major support level of $1,295.73.

A morning high $1,422.6 failed to test the day’s first major resistance level of $1,487.13, as Bitcoin Cash moved into reverse at Thursday’s resistance level late in the day.

For the day ahead, a move back through to $1,400 levels will be key for Bitcoin Cash to continue maintain the bullish trend, with any pullback to $1,350 likely to bring the day’s first major support level of $1,295.73 into play, though we would expect support at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5 to prevent sub-$1,300 levels through the day.

 

BCH/USD 27/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Litecoin back into the $150s

Litecoin gained 5.9% on Thursday, to partially reverse Wednesday’s 12.32% slide, ending the day at $153.55.

Litecoin enjoyed a relatively smooth day on Thursday, with the day’s low $142.2 coming within the first hour of the day, while the day’s $154.65 high came in the final few hours, the day’s major support and resistance levels being left untested through the day.

While major support levels were left untested, Litecoin slipped through to the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $145.33 to test buyer appetite before a run back through to $150 levels by the close, an upward move across the broader market delivering the much needed support at the retracement levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down 1.86% to $150.25, with Litecoin falling through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $153.18 early on to come within reach of the day’s first major support level of $145.62, with a morning low $148.6.

With the broader market sitting in the red, Litecoin found little support at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level, bringing the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $145.33 and first major support level of $145.62 into play, barring a shift in sentiment through the morning, support at the $150 psychological level may be not enough.

A move back through to a morning high $153.75 would support a run at the day’s first major resistance level of $158.07, with little news having hit the markets to shift the current bullish trend formed back at the 6th April’s swing lo $112.1.

LTC/USD 27/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Ripple Tracks the Market

Ripple’s XRP gained 6.96% on Thursday, partially reversing Wednesday’s 14.67% slide, to end the day at $0.84884, Ripple’s XRP failing to hit 0.90 levels for the first time since Monday.

An early morning $0.75793 was the only negative for Ripple’s XRP, the day’s low holding well above the first major support level of S0.7267, while calling on support at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $0.7731 that supported a run through the afternoon to a day high $0.85634 before easing back at the close.

While the day’s high fell short of the first major resistance level of $0.8841, breaking clear of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477 was key to supporting the bullish trend that has continued since 6th April’ swing lo $0.45716, with Ripple’s XRP holding above the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level at the close.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down 1.43% to $0.83532 in what’s been a bearish start to the day across the market.

Support at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477 failed to kick in, bringing sub-$0.80 support levels into play early on, with Ripple’s XRP needing to move through to $0.85 levels to support a run at the day’s first major resistance level of $0.8841 and go in search of $0.90 levels over the weekend.

Failure to move through to $0.85 levels could see Ripple’s XRP slide back to this morning’s $0.82371 low that would bring the day’s first major support level.

It’s been a bearish start, but with the bullish trend still intact and the news wires yet to deliver anything particularly dire for the markets, a reversal of this morning’ losses is plausible through the afternoon.

XRP/USD 27/04/18 Hourly Chart

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UK and US GDP in Focus after Kim Jong Un crossed the DMZ

Earlier in the Day:

Economic data released through the Asian session was on the heavier side this morning, with stats including New Zealand’s trade figures for March, inflation, industrial production and retail sales figures out of Japan and wholesale price inflation numbers out of Australia.

For the Kiwi Dollar, the trade deficit widened from NZ$3,070m to NZ$3,420m in March, year-on-year, with the month-on-month trade balance sliding from a NZ$172m surplus to a NZ$86m deficit at the end of the quarter.

Year-on-year, goods exports increased by NZ$265m (5.8%) to NZ$4.9bn, while goods imports rose by NZ$612m (14%) to NZ$4.9bn.

Milk power, butter and cheese led the export rise, up NZ$116m (11%) to NZ$12bn, with the export of logs, wood and wood articles (18%) and petroleum and products other than crude seeing a moderate increase.

Exports to Australia saw the largest rise, up 11%, followed by the U.S up 5.8% and the EU, up 4.9%, while exports to China slipped 4.3% and down by 3.9% to Japan.

On the import side, petroleum and products rose by a whopping NZ$297m (88%), driving the headline figure, with imports of aircraft and parts, mechanical machinery and equipment and vehicles parts and accessories also contributing.

By country, imports from the U.S were up 30%, up 19% from the EU and 4.7% from China, while down by 8.8% from Japan.

The March monthly deficit was the first deficit since 2008, figures released by Stats New Zealand.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.70628 to $0.70565 upon release of the figures, which will weigh on 1st quarter GDP numbers.

For the Aussie Dollar, wholesale price inflation eased in the 1st quarter from 0.6% to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, while holding steady at 1.7% year-on-year.

Supporting wholesale price inflation included rising electricity, gas and water supply prices (+3.4%); rising prices for heavy and civil engineering (+0.6%) and a 3.8% increase in prices for petroleum refining and fuel manufacturing.

Partially offsetting the rise in prices were declines in prices for pharmaceutical and medicinal product manufacturing (-1.6%); commercial fishing (-10.4%) and oil and fat manufacturing (-5.5%).

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.75521 to $0.75525 upon release of the figures, before rising to $0.7555 at the time of writing, up 0.01% for the day.

For the Japanese Yen, Tokyo core inflation slipped from 0.8% to 0.6% in April, with retail sales also seeing just a 1% rise in March, year-on-year, following February’s 2% rise, while industrial production increased by 1.2%, ahead of a forecasted 0.5% increase, following February’s flat finalized number.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.309 to ¥109.318 upon release of the stats that also included the March jobs to applications ratio that rose from 1.58 to 1.59.

With the stats coming in ahead of the BoJ monetary policy decision, the softer inflation numbers will continue to support a dovish BoJ that could see further softness in the Yen, the weaker retail sales figures unlikely to give too much hope of a shift in inflationary pressures any time soon.

While the BoJ’s decision to hold rates unchanged this morning was expected, the press conference later in the session will garner more attention, any dovish commentary likely to weigh on the Yen through the session.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.16 to ¥109.225 following the announcement and release of the outlook report and monetary policy statement, with the BoJ removing any reference to when it expected to meet its 2% inflation target, the economy considered to be doing well, supported by strong demand for Japanese goods from overseas. Rates were left at -0.1% and the Bank will continue to hold 10-year yields at around 0%.

In the equity markets, it was risk on with the Nikkei and ASX200 up 0.42% and 0.32% respectively, while the Hang Seng was up 0.24%, with the CSI300 giving up early gains to sit in the red early in the session.

An overnight rebound in the tech sector, some positive earnings and a rise in oil prices were the positives for the markets, with news of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un crossing the DMZ for a summit with South Korea adding support to the equity markets this morning, while concerns over U.S and China trade relations weighed on the CSI300.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR, economic data scheduled for release this morning is on the heavier side and includes inflation and GDP numbers out of France and Spain, unemployment numbers out of Germany and French consumer spending figures.

We will expect the figures to have an influence on the EUR, with any hint of a pickup in inflation and stable economic growth through the 1st quarter the best outcome for the EUR and those looking for Draghi to begin shifting on policy towards interest rates.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up 0.06% to $1.2110, with the EUR now in the hands of the stats following Draghi’s speech at Thursday’s press conference that saw EUR pullback to $1.21 levels, any soft inflation numbers likely to bring $1.19 into play in the coming weeks.

For the Pound, economic data includes prelim 1st quarter GPD numbers and house price figures for March. The markets will more than likely ignore the house price figures, with the GDP number now key to weather the BoE can consider lifting rates next month. A stable economy and unemployment rate coupled with an inflation overshoot would more than likely see the markets begin to price back in a May hike that should see the Pound recover to $1.40 levels, while weak numbers will be another reason for BoE to stand pat.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.06% to $1.3928, with Brexit chatter also there for the markets to consider ahead of the weekend.

Across the Pond, focus will be on 1st quarter GDP and employment cost numbers, any better than forecasted figures another Dollar positive, with the markets expecting upward revision to GDP numbers following the March goods trade numbers released on Thursday.

On the geo-political front, the North Korean summit with South Korea will also be considered a positive, as the Dollar continues to recover the losses from the start of the year.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down 0.03% to $91.532, with today’s stats and noise from the Oval Office the key drivers through the day, the U.S president now turning his attention to the Iran nuclear agreement.

Monero Technical Analysis – Support Levels to be Tested – 26/04/18

Key Highlights

  • Monero slid 12.39% on Wednesday, reversing gains from the week, to end the day at $256.23.
  • An intraday high $292.45 failed to test the day’s first major resistance level of $301.6, while a middle of the day low $246.79 saw Monero slide through the day’s first major support level of $267.4 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $266.5 before support kicked in at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $246.3.

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Monero Price Support

Negative sentiment across the market weighed on all the cryptocurrencies, with a slide in both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash weighing on the altcoins.

Monero’s high for the day came at the start of the day, from which Monero slid to an intraday low $246.79 in the late morning, Monero sliding through the day’s first major support level of $279.6 and 2nd support level of $267 before buying appetite kicked in at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $246.3 to lead Monero back to $256.23 by the close.

While the day’s first major resistance level of $283.52 was left untested, the near-term bullish trend formed at 6th April’s swing lo $161.1 remained intact, though much will depend on the moves through the remainder of the week, a continued sell-off today beginning the formation of a bearish trend, investors likely to be in search of a more stable market before jumping back in.

At the time of writing, Monero was down 1.1% to $253.16, as the market takes a turn through the middle of the morning, giving up gains from earlier in the day.

Monero moved through to an intraday high $276.7 at the start of the day, falling short of the first major resistance level of $283.52, while a slide through to this morning’s $248.63 low brings the day’s first major support level of $237.9 into play, with the negative sentiment across the market likely to limit buying appetite at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $246.3.

While it’s looking bearish for Monero this morning, the early losses leaving Monero in the red for the current week, market sentiment could shift in the 2nd half of the day, with Bitcoin likely to provide direction. A move through the start of the day’s $276.7 high supporting a run at $280 levels and the day’s first major resistance level of $283.52, while $300 levels will likely be a step too.

Failure to resistance levels could see Monero pull back to the day’s first major support level of $237.9, with buyer appetite at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $246.3 unlikely to be of much support unless sentiment sees a material improvement through the latter part of the morning.

Monero 1H Chart
Monero 1H Chart

Looking at the Technical Indicators

  • Major Support Level: $238
  • Major Resistance Level: $284
  • Fib 23.6% Retracement Level: $266.5
  • Fib 38% Retracement Level: $246.3
  • Fib 62% Retracement Level: $213.8

Bitcoin Gives Up more Ground to Bitcoin Cash and Chances of $10,000

Bitcoin slid 8.28% on Wednesday, reversing Tuesday’s 7.98% gain, to end the day at $8,847.7, the declines coming off the back of a broad market sell-off as investors looked to lock in profits stemming from the latest bull-trend formed back at 6th April’s swing lo $6,500.2.

An intraday high $9,767.4 in the early hours of the morning came up short of the day’s first major resistance level of $9,869.97 and Bitcoin’s $10,000 milestone, with a reversal through to the latter part of the day seeing Bitcoin slide through the day’s first major support level of $9,312.07 and 2nd support level of $8,970.63 to an intraday low $8,765.1, the day’s moves testing buyer appetite at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,979 on its moves.

The good news for the Bitcoin bulls would have been the hold above the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $8,506, though failing to hold at $9,000 levels would have been a disappointing, further delaying Bitcoin’s recovery to $10,000 levels.

In spite of Wednesday’s slide, the near-term bull trend remains intact, with direction through the rest of the week likely to have a material influence on the broader market.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up just 0.01% to $8,870, with Bitcoin lagging Bitcoin Cash and some of the other major in what’s been a choppy start to the day.

A slide at the start of the day saw Bitcoin fall through to a morning low $8,652.2, with Bitcoin managing to avoid testing the day’s first major support level of $8,486, Bitcoin’s moves between the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996 and 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $8,519 providing the necessary support to avoid a more material decline early on.

An early $8,960 high saw Bitcoin face plenty of resistance at the $9,000 psychological level, with the day’s first major resistance level of $9,448.37 some way off and unlikely to be tested through the day ahead.

With the broader market in positive territory, supported by a resurgent Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin will need to break back through to $9,000 levels to continue supporting the current bull trend, the moves through Wednesday showing signs of a reversal of the near-term bull trend that could ultimately weigh on the broader markets.

Failure to break back through to $9,000 levels could see Bitcoin pull back to test the day’s first major support level of $8,486.07, with the broader market sentiment likely to dictate buying appetite at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $8,519.

While we would expect Bitcoin to avert a major sell-off to bring sub-$8,000 levels into play, investors will likely tread carefully through the early part of the day.

Looking across at the Cboe Bitcoin Futures, the May contract was down $200 to $8,870, providing investors with little incentive to jump back in at current levels.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin Cash was up 3.24%, with Waves up 3.03% and Stellar’s Lumen up a whopping 11.12%, with only a handful of majors joining Bitcoin in the red.

BTC/USD 26/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 26/04/18

Bitcoin Cash in Recovery

Bitcoin Cash saw red for a second consecutive day on Wednesday, falling 8.46% to end the day a $1,286, well off the week’s $1,578.3 high struck on Tuesday.

Following a run of gains, with Bitcoin Cash having rallied from 6th April’s swing lo $600.1 to Tuesday’s swing hi $1,578.3, the consecutive days of losses was to be expected, with investors looking to lock in profits.

An intraday low $1,227.9 saw Bitcoin Cash slide through the day’s first major support level of $1,342.7 and 2nd support level of $1,271.4 before support kicked in, buying appetite at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5 having been on the weaker side due to the broad market sell-off through the day

A start of the day $1,442.7 came up well short of the day’s first major resistance level of $1,531.8 and, while Bitcoin Cash took a sizeable hit on Wednesday, the extended bull trend remains intact. At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 3.49% to $1,333.1, with investors jumping back in on the dip early on in the day.

There’s been no material shift in sentiment towards the Bitcoin Cash hard fork next month to have led to the 2-day reversal, supporting a Bitcoin Cash recovery this morning.

A morning $1,3767.6 came up short of the day’s first major resistance level of $1,409.83 and perhaps more importantly $1,400 levels, which will need to be hit through the early part of the afternoon for Bitcoin Cash to hold on to the morning’s gains.

Failure to move through to $1,400 levels could see Bitcoin Cash take another hit and pullback through to $1,200 levels, though we would expect the day’s first major support level of $1,195.03 to be left untested, with support expected to kick in at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,347.5 and 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $1,204.06.

BCH/USD 26/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Litecoin Slammed

Litecoin slid 12.32% on Wednesday, reversing two consecutive days’ of gains that had seen Litecoin move through to a swing hi $165.87 in the current bull trend formed back on 6th April.

Litecoin was not alone in Wednesday’s sell-off, though the losses were certainly more significant than Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, investors seemingly unimpressed on news of the Litecoin platform being used for live cash remittances.

An intraday high $164.84 came at the start of the day, leaving the day’s first major resistance level of $169.46 untested through the day, while an intraday low $138.8 saw Litecoin slide through the day’s major support levels, with Litecoin seeing little buyer interest through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $146.38, before support kicked in at around the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $139.91.

A move back through to $140 levels by the close was key in supporting the current bull trend formed back at 6th April’s swing lo $112.1, a continued fall through to the 62% FIB Retracement Level of $129.29 likely to see Litecoin move shift into a bearish trend.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down 0.28% to $144.59 in what’s been a relatively choppy start to the day, Litecoin sliding to an early morning $142.2 low before hitting an intraday $147.88 high, the moves through the day leaving major support and resistance levels untested, while buyer appetite came to the rescue at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $145.33 to prevent a more sizeable fall.

For the day ahead, market sentiment will continue to be key for Litecoin, with any move through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $153.18 supporting a run at the day’s first major resistance level of $159.91 and a resumption of the bull trend.

Failure to move back through the day’s high could see Litecoin go into reverse later in the day to test buy appetite at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level, bringing $130 levels into play.

Such a move would be the start of a near-term bearish trend, with the latest bull rally continuing to look a little jaded.

LTC/USD 26/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Ripple Takes a Dive

Ripple’s XRP slid 14.67% on Wednesday, reversing gains from Monday and Tuesday, to end the day at $0.78957.

Wednesday’s sell-off saw Ripple’s XRP take a bigger hit than most, having been amongst the front runners in the latest bull trend that formed at 6th April’s swing lo $0.45716.

It was downhill through the day, with Ripple’s XRP sliding to an intraday low $0.76637, falling through the 1st major resistance level of $0.8707 and 2nd resistance level of $0.8182 before support kicked in at around the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $0.7731.

Avoiding a slide through the 62% FIB Retracement Level of $0.6524 was key for Ripple’s XRP avoiding a reversal of the latest bull trend, though closing out the day at sub-$0.80 levels for the first time since 20th April will have been a concern, the day’s $0.93193 high, struck at the start of the day, the only positive.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up 0.65% to $0.79895, with a morning low $0.75707 coming at the start of the day, drawing in support at around the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $0.7731 to move back through to $0.79 levels and look to make a run at $0.80 levels and bring the day’s first major resistance level of $0.8922 into sight.

Failure to move back through to $0.80 levels and test major resistance levels later in the day could see the day’s first major support level of $0.7278 come into play, such a move considered the start of a reversal to the near-term bullish trend.

XRP/USD 26/04/18 Hourly Chart

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Can Draghi pull the EUR back to $1.19?

Earlier in the Day:

There were no material stats released through the Asian session this morning to have an impact, leaving the markets to continue responding to the jump in U.S Treasury yields through the session, 10-year Treasury yields sitting a 3.03%.

The Japanese Yen found some much needed support through the morning, up 0.09% to ¥109.33 against the U.S Dollar at the time of writing, as the Yen continued to shift away from ¥100 following the soft inflation numbers released last week and the bounce back in the Dollar. This week’s BoJ press conference and outlook report are expected to see the BoJ downwardly adjust inflation forecasts that would add further pressure on the Yen.

In spite of yield differentials narrowing in favour of the U.S Dollar, the Aussie Dollar managed to pick up 0.13% through the morning to move to $0.7575, supported by an uptick in oil and commodity prices, while the Kiwi Dollar was down 0.11% to $0.7061, sub-$0.70 levels likely to be hit in the coming days, the pair unlikely to be seeing the year’s highs anytime soon.

While the U.S President may have talked up the need for a stronger U.S Dollar, the latest run and shift in sentiment towards inflation and FED monetary policy has put the U.S Dollar front and centre once more, with monetary policy divergence likely to continue to favour the U.S Dollar through to the 3rd quarter.

In the equity markets, the Nikkei bucked the trend amongst the majors, up 0.45% at the time of writing, while the Hang Sang, CSI300 and ASX200 saw red, the CSI300 down 1.52% through the morning.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR, economic data was limited to consumer sentiment figures out of Germany, which was in line with expectations and unchanged from April, together with prelim April inflation figures due out of Italy later this morning, forecasts pointing to softer inflation, a negative for the EUR ahead of this afternoon’s monetary policy decision and the all-important Draghi press conference.

While few, if any, are expecting the ECB to make a move this month, the uncertainty lies around how Draghi will view inflation and the outlook for the Eurozone economy. The EUR has been on the slide of late and, while the U.S may be seeing inflationary pressures build, the Eurozone remains some way behind that should see the EUR continue to weaken against the Dollar, sub-$1.20 levels likely to be hit in the coming weeks should Draghi peg back further any hopes of a shift in policy.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up 0.14% to $1.2178, with near-term direction in the hands of Draghi later today.

For the Pound, economic data is limited to mortgage approval figures that are unlikely to have a material impact, as the Pound continues to struggle with sentiment towards Brexit and the survival of Theresa May at the helm weighing.

The UK economy may have surprised many in spite of inflation overshooting the BoE’s 2% target for an extended period of time but, with the BoE now expected to hold back on a move next month, following some weak economic data, and the British government struggling with the Establishment in Brussels, any major rally in the Pound will likely be on hold, near-term upside in the hands of Carney and May.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.07% to $1.3942, with direction through the day in the hands of the Dollar, stats out of the U.S on the heavier side, and Brexit chatter, with the Irish border issue continuing to cause issues for the British PM.

Across the Pond, economic data out of the U.S includes the weekly jobless claims figures, together with March’s trade and durable goods orders numbers.

We will expect focus to be on core durable goods that should be a positive for the U.S Dollar, though much will depend upon whether U.S Treasury yields can hold at 3%, the U.S administration as much of an influence on direction as key economic indicators.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down 0.01% to $91.16, the latest Dollar bull trend seeing year-to-date losses shrink to just 1.05%, the Dollar at its strongest since early January.

NEM’s XEM Technical Analysis – Calling for Support – 25/04/18

Key Highlights

  • NEM’s XEM gained 6.91% on Tuesday, following Monday’s 1.59%, to end the day at $0.43143
  • An intraday high $0.44071 saw NEM’s XEM break through the day’s first major resistance level of $0.4352 late in the day.
  • The day’s $0.40221 low steered clear of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.3698, with the day’s first major support level of $0.37183 also left untested in another bullish day.

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NEM’s XEM Price Support

NEM’s XEM gained 6.91% on Tuesday, following Monday’s 1.59% gain, to end the day at $0.43143, the highest level since mid-March.

NEM’s XEM continued its strong bull trend through the day on Tuesday, with NEM’S XEM hitting an intraday high $0.44071 late in the day, while the moves fell short of the day’s first major resistance level of $0.4587, the recent bull trend having given room for NEM’s XEM to run ahead of key resistance levels, with volatility has picked up through the month.

The morning’s $0.40221 low steered well clear of the day’s first major support level of $0.3798 and the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.3858, affirming the bull trend formed back at 6th April’s swing lo $0.20803.

A lack of negative news through the day and a move by Bitcoin provided support for the broader market and NEM’s XEM.

At the time of writing, NEM’s XEM was down 12.09% to $0.37818, with the cryptomarket going through a broad sell-off within the early hours of the day, NEM’s XEM sliding through the day’s first major support level of $0.4089 within the first few hours of the day.

Psychological support at $0.40 failed to materialize as the investors took money off the table, a continued reversal in Bitcoin Cash shifting appetite for the market.

A late morning $0.36692 low saw NEM’s XEM slide through the 2nd support level of $0.3863 and the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.3858 before NEM’s XEM found support to move back through to $0.37 levels.

For the day ahead, market sentiment will need to improve for NEM’s XEM to move back through to $0.40 levels, with support levels have failed to soften the blow early on.

A pullback through to the day’s 3rd support level of $0.3478 could see the latest bull trend reverse and bring sub-$0.30 levels into play, though we will expect support at current levels and a partial recovery in the second half of the day, while the day’s first major resistance level of $0.4474 will likely remain out of reach.

Failure to move through to $0.385 by the early afternoon could see the reversal to sub-$0.30 levels, though much will depend on Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, the pair hitting investor appetite ahead of the schedule Bitcoin Cash hard fork next month.

NEM/USD 1H Chart
NEM/USD 1H Chart

Looking at the Technical Indicators

  • Major Support Level: $0.4089
  • Major Resistance Level: $0.4474
  • Fib 23.6% Retracement Level: $0.3858
  • Fib 38% Retracement Level: $0.3518
  • Fib 62% Retracement Level: $0.2969