GBP/JPY Bullish Reversal Breakout Offers 200 Pips Space

The GBP/JPY made a strong decline but two full daily candles were unable to break below the bottom. The support Fractal could kick start a bullish retracement. But what is the target for the bulls and where could bears regain control?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

GBP/JPY daily chart

The GBP/JPY break below the support trend line (dotted purple) and 21 ema zone started a bearish impulse. Price even broke below the 144 ema. But some type of retracement is usual when price crosses the 144 ema, which has not yet happened. Price could retest the Fibonacci resistance levels before moving lower towards the -27.2% Fibonacci target. The red boxes indicate a potential head and shoulders pattern whereas the blue boxes show a potential inverted head and shoulders on the weekly chart.

The GBP/JPY 4 hour candles are grey, which is indicating indecision. A break above the double top pattern and two resistance Fractals could confirm the bullish breakout (geen check). The main target is the resistance zone (red box) and Fibonacci levels of the daily chart. A bullish swing is becoming more likely also due to the divergence pattern between the bottoms (purple lines), the break above the falling wedge chart pattern, the expected ABC zigzag, and bounce at the Wizz 9 target zone. But a bearish breakout below the blue box could indicate a final push lower towards the Fib target.

GBP/JPY 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Bitcoin Failure to Break Top Indicates ABCDE Triangle

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has not been able to break the previous top for almost 5 weeks now. A bearish retracement is starting to get the upper hand. How deep can the pullback decline before finding key support?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Bitcoin weekly chart

Momentum usually runs out of steam when 5 to 6 candles fail to break the high. So if price action is unable to break the top by the end of the next trading week (by 2-4 October), then a bearish retracement is likely. In that case, an ABCDE triangle pattern (purple) is the dominant outlook for Bitcoin. The last swing is then a wave E (purple), which could last several months before it’s completed.

The wave E will probably find support at the Fibonacci retracement levels. The key support zones are the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci levels. Although wave Es in general are known for the fact that they stop at any spot. This also is aided by the long-term moving averages, which have acted as support before (blue boxes). A break below the 100% Fib invalidates (red x) the triangle pattern. A break below the local support (green box) confirms the downside (orange arrows) whereas an unexpected break above local resistance (orange box) could kick start an immediate breakout (dotted green arrows).

The daily chart saw price action behaving in a classical way. First a bounce at the 144 ema and then a respect for the 21 ema zone as resistance. Unless price action breaks above the top, the bears have the best odds at the moment to push price below the support (green box) and towards the Fibonacci support zones.

Bitcoin daily chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Siemens Reversal Patterns Appear but Support & Uptrend Indicate Buys

The company Siemens (SIEG) is in a strong uptrend like many other stocks. But the price action in August was calm and sideways. Reversal chart patterns also started to appear. What is the next expected price swing based on the price patterns?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Siemens daily chart

Siemens is starting a bearish retracement according to our Elliott Wave indicator (red candle). This occurred after price action showed chart patterns such as a rising wedge (purple trend lines) and a head and shoulders pattern (dark red boxes). But the long-term trend remains very bullish due to the gap between price and the 21 ema zone versus the long-term moving averages (144,233,610 emas). And also the momentum on the weekly chart has recently been confirmed (green diamond in purple box). Price is expected to retrace deeper but not much before support stops price from falling. The main support levels are at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the previous top (dark green box). Or at the confluence of long-term MAs and the 38.2% Fib (blue box). This would confirm the usual retracement level for a wave 4 (purple).

The 4 hour chart (see below) seems to be indicating a pullback via an ABC wave pattern (purple). Price is moving below the 21 ema zone so if price retests that same zone, it could turn into resistance. And price could bounce and aim for the Fibonacci targets and Wizz levels. Only a break, pullback, and bounce above the 21 ema zone would indicate an immediate uptrend without a deeper bearish pullback. Earnings date is November 5, 2020.

Siemens 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

 

Alphabet (GOOG) Strong Decline Puts Bulls in Waiting Mode

Alphabet (GOOG) has made a serious decline in the past trading days. The bearish momentum is strong and testing the Fibonacci levels and long-term moving averages. Can GOOG make a bullish recovery?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Google daily chart

Probably yes. The support zone is very strong (blue boxes) and a bullish bounce is likely to take place. The 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels combined with the 144-233 emas should send price action higher. The next question is whether price will be able to fully break above the 21 ema zone. Also here a bounce is probable and the bears could push it lower to test the previous bottom. This is when the moment of truth for the Alphabet stock arrives. Will price action break through the bottom for a larger bearish correction (orange arrows)? Or will it bounce and test the previous top (green arrows)? The answer depends on the chart and price patterns that emerge around the key support zone (purple box).

Alphabet is likely to make a bullish bounce due to the pinbar. The bullish wick at the bottom of the current candlestick is indicating buying pressure. But as price moves up, it will face hefty resistance from the head and shoulders zone (red boxes) and the consolidation zone (orange box). A bearish break below the -61.8% Fibonacci (green box) confirms a deep bearish ABC (orange) pattern. A bullish bounce at the green box makes a bullish ABC (purple) more likely.

Google 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Triangle Chart Pattern Developing Key Wave 1-2 Breakout

The XAU/USD (Gold) has been building a contracting triangle chart pattern for a long time. Will the continuation pattern indeed break to the upside as expected? Or will the price pattern fail and break lower for a deeper retracement?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Gold daily chart

The XAU/USD triangle pattern looks like a classical triangle chart pattern and therefore, the triangle usually breaks higher. From my experience, about 70% of these patterns do break above the resistance of the pattern. A push above the resistance Fractals would confirm the bullish breakout (green check). The first target is the 138.2% Fibonacci level, which could cause a pullback. A bullish bounce at approximately the previous top could setup a full uptrend that challenges and perhaps breaks above the previous top. However, a break below the support Fractal could set in motion a deeper correction. The main target in that case is the previous support zone (blue box), the 144 ema, and the -61.8% and -100 Fibonacci targets.

On the 4 hour chart our Elliott Wave software is showing grey indecision candles. The current wave 1-2 (purple) remains viable as long as price action stays above the bottom of wave 1 (blue box). A break below that support invalidates (red x) the bullish outlook and indicates a downtrend. Otherwise, price action seems to be building a potential ABC (orange) pattern within the wave 2 (purple). A bullish breakout above the double top could send Gold higher, finally.

Gold 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

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Nasdaq’s Triple Bottom Could Confirm Reversal in Uptrend

The Nasdaq (NQ 100) is testing the support zone for the 3rd time (top blue box). Will the NQ100 index finally make a bullish bounce? Or will the pullback retrace deeper towards the next support zone?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart

The NQ 100 is likely to make a bullish bounce in this zone due to the strong confluence of support. A bullish bounce would aim for the Fibonacci retracement levels. A push to and reversal at the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, however, could indicate a bearish reversal. A move up into the 78.6% indicates a triangle chart pattern instead and later on, an uptrend continuation as well. Only a break below the bottom could increase the chance of price reaching the next support zone (lower blue box) and the -61.8% Fibonacci target. A break below the -1% Fib invalidates the current uptrend.

The current momentum is down according to our Elliott Wave software (red candles) but there is a potential triple reversal chart pattern in play. Only a break below the bottom could actually lead to a larger downtrend. Otherwise a mild pullback could confirm a bullish reversal and breakout towards the Fibonacci resistance levels.

Nasdaq 100 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

GBP/USD Bulls Regain Control and Aim at 1.3040 and 1.3150

The GBP/USD is building a well balanced uptrend channel. The bulls took over control when price broke through the resistance zone (dotted orange) and 144 ema. But can they push price action up higher?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

GBP/USD 1 hour chart

The GBP/USD have the upper hand at the moment. And they are expected to keep it. A break above the resistance Fractal (red box) confirms the uptrend continuation. The main target is the long-term moving average and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 4 hour chart at 1.3040.

But price action could extend to higher levels. Especially if price action is able to show a bull flag pattern. Then the next breakout could take price to the -27.2% Fibonacci target and the Wizz 6 level. A break above that could even create an impulse towards the -61.8% Fibonacci target and Wizz 7 level at around 1.3150, which is where a larger retracement could take place.

The downside is only likely if price is able to break below the broken tops and support Fractals (blue box). The main target is then the 78.63% Fib level, which could easily be a bouncing spot. Only a break below the 100% Fib invalidates the bullish outlook. For the moment, the wave patterns suggest a completed ABC (pink) within wave A (purple) and a current wave B-C (purple) pattern.

Our own Elliott Wave software (see image below) already confirmed the bullish trend since the purple vertical line. The broken Fractals were a key confirmation of the upside (blue box). Now there seems to be more space to the upside (green boxes) than downside (red boxes – boxes were manually added in the image).

GBP/USD 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Netflix Bearish ABC Pullback Offers Discount in Uptrend

Some stocks are offering potential discounts within a large uptrend. For instance, Netflix (NFLX) is showing a bearish pullback after the price dropped about $85 (-15%) in recent trading. Could this be a support zone for price action and restart the uptrend?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Netflix 4 hour chart

The Netflix chart is in a strong uptrend but the current bearish pullback is likely to continue lower for the moment. Price action is below the 21 ema zone. Furthermore, price action broke below the support fractals. The main bouncing spots seem to be slightly lower. The next bearish swing could complete a wave 5 (orange) of a larger wave ABC (purple) of wave 4 (pink). The first key support zone is at the -27.2% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels. The second support zone is located around the -61.8% and 50% Fibs. Bullish candlestick patterns at these price levels could make it an interesting stock.

Only a deep break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level invalidates (red x) the bullish outlook at the moment. An unexpected bullish break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level places the stock in an immediate uptrend (blue arrows). But the space towards any upside target could be limited to $600-650. For the moment, a deeper bearish pullback could provide a sufficient discount to expect a good bounce and run up. The Nextflix earnings date is expected around the end of October.

Netflix 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

EUR/USD Bullish ABC Zigzag Aims at H&S Target

The EUR/USD made a bullish break and bounced at the 21 ema zone. The bulls are back in control. But how far can they push before a target is hit? And the bears create a reversal anytime soon? Let’s review this in today’s wave analysis on the EUR/USD.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 4 hour chart

The EUR/USD is building a bullish ABC (orange) pattern. A bullish breakout above the resistance trend line (purple) is therefore likely. The first target (red circle) is the Wizz 6 level and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1960. If price action responds with a bull flag chart pattern, then a continuation higher will take price to the 2nd target zone at 1.20-1.2050 where traders can see a confluence of 161.8% Fibonacci target, 100% Fib target, and Wizz 7 level.

However, a strong bearish price action signal at the first target could indicate a reversal. Helping the turn around is the potential head and shoulders reversal chart pattern (red boxes). This confirmation becomes stronger especially if price action makes a lower high and lower low. In that case, a 5 wave pattern is expected within the wave C (purple) of wave 4 (pink) and price action could build a serious retracement. Only a break above the Wizz 7 level would clearly confirm the uptrend.

EUR/USD chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

BTC/USD Bullish Reversal to Test Critical Highs

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) made a critical bullish breakout above the resistance trend line (dotted orange). But a triangle chart pattern remains a factor whether BTC/USD is really in an uptrend or not. What can we expect on the weekly and daily charts?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Bitcoin weekly chart

The BTC/USD is testing the broken support zone (dotted orange lines and blue box). A bullish bounce is expected to retest the previous high. A bullish break above the previous top confirms the uptrend and a wave 3 (pink) continuation. A bearish bounce indicates that an ABCDE triangle pattern is more likely to emerge. This triangle pattern only becomes invalid if price breaks below the bottom and 100% Fib.

The current retracement on the daily chart is finding support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (pink). The 5 wave (pink) pattern is the alternative of the triangle pattern shown on the weekly chart. But price action should stay above the 50% Fib and eventually break above the resistance. A bullish pinbar at the 144 ema is likely to create a bounce to test the resistance trend line soon.

Bitcoin daily chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Gold Prepares for Massive Bullish Trend but Break Needed

The XAU/USD (Gold) chart is showing the end of an ABCDE triangle pattern (green). This could complete a wave 4 (blue) retracement and restart the uptrend. What is the key breakout zone for the bulls?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Gold 4 hour chart

Gold needs to make a bullish break above the resistance trend lines (red) to confirm the upside (green check). There is not much resistance ahead from a volume point of view once the breakout occurs. Although the tops of wave B and D remain sub levels to be aware of. The current wave 1-2 pattern remains valid as long as price stays above the Fib levels of 2 vs 1. A break below the 100% Fib could indicate a deeper retracement first within the larger uptrend.

Although Gold has probably completed the triangle pattern, the wave C of a triangle is known to be complex and lengthy. A new low could easily expand the wave C and hence the entire triangle (small red x). The entire triangle pattern would become invalid if price breaks below the bottom (big red x). For the moment, a bullish breakout and uptrend resumption do seem close by. The Wizz 9 and previous top are the next immediate targets.

Gold 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

GBP/USD Ready for Bounce after 600 Pips Free Fall

The GBP/USD is in free fall. The Cable declined more than 600 pips in a few trading days. Can the GU continue its bearish momentum or will a bullish correction take place?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

GBP/USD 1 hour chart

The GBP/USD has a higher probability of building a bullish retracement at the moment. A bullish ABC (blue) pattern could take place after the strong bearish decline. The Fibonacci retracement levels of wave B vs A could act as support for a push up. Although an immediate bullish breakout would be logical too. The first main target is the 38.2% Fib and 100% Fib target. Our volume profile, however, indicates that stronger resistance might be expected at higher price levels, like the 50-61.8% Fib zone. Only a break below the bottom of wave B (blue) would indicate an immediate downtrend continuation.

Our Elliott Wave software is indicating a retracement mode (grey candles) after a strong push down (red candles). The arrows indicate key bounce and break out spots. The purple arrows indicate the expected path of least resistance at the moment. Due to the strong bearish momentum on higher time frames (purple diamonds in pink box), the key aspects for a downtrend continuation are the 144 ema zone (dark red box) and the break of a future fractal (purple box).

GBP/USD 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

DAX 30 Creates Rising Wedge Reversal Chart Pattern

The German index DAX 30 is building a rising wedge reversal chart pattern (purple lines). The uptrend is losing steam and larger retracement is around the corner. What could confirm this bearish pullback?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

DAX 4 hour chart

The DAX 30 seems to have completed a 5 wave (pink) of a potential wave 3 (purple). The bulls, however, are struggling to push higher. The recent break below the 21 ema zone is a first warning signal. A candle close below the 144 ema could confirm an immediate bearish breakout towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. But keep in mind that a bullish candle could still send the DAX higher to test the head and shoulders pattern (red boxes) first. A break of the top invalidates the retracement outlook (red x).

The DAX was using the 21 ema zone as a support area until recently. Now price has broken below the zone and also used it once as a resistance. A candle close in the red box could confirm a reversal breakout and potential continuation within the wave C (pink). Main target is the 23.6% Fib at the moment because the pullback could be part of a larger wave 4 (purple).

DAX 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

 

EUR/USD Bullish ABC at High Volume Support Zone

The EUR/USD is testing a critical support zone. A bullish bounce could confirm an inverted head and shoulders pattern (blue boxes). The break below support or above resistance will be a key aspect for the direction of the next price swing.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 1 hour chart

The EUR/USD bullish rebound at the Fibonacci levels could confirm a wave B (orange). But price action must stay above the 100% Fib level, otherwise the ABC zigzag pattern is invalid (red x). A breakout above the resistance trend lines and long-term moving averages would confirm the bullish breakout. This could also confirm the wave C (orange) of a larger wave B (red). Price is expected to respect the Fibonacci targets.

In the image below traders can also see the 4 hour perspective including volume profile. The current level has seen huge levels of volume. This increases the chance of price using it as a support zone. But if a bearish breakout does take place, then there is plenty of space to fall towards 1.17 and the larger 23.6% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (pink). A break through that Fib means that price can extend its fall towards the 38.2% Fib and 1.15 round level. A bullish bounce could target the head and shoulders level (red boxes)

EUR/USD 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Nasdaq Bearish Price Action Remains Pullback in Uptrend

The NASDAQ (NQ – US100) chart has almost doubled in value since the major decline in March 2020. The strong uptrend outperforms other stock indices by a large margin. Are the tech stocks in a bubble or is there space for more uptrend?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

NQ Weekly Chart

The NQ weekly chart (see above) is showing very strong bullish momentum (green diamonds). Weekly and monthly candles are loose and away from the 21 ema zone, which indicates strong bullish control. The decline in March 2020 is probably a wave 4 (pink) retracement to the 50% Fibonacci level. The current uptrend, however, seems incomplete after breaking above the -27.2% Fibonacci target. The next -61.8% Fibonacci target is located at 13,300. That said, the bearish weekly candle of last week does indicate that a bearish pullback of some sort is likely to take place within the uptrend.

The daily chart (see below) is in a neat and well balanced uptrend channel. Price action is now at the bottom of the channel and the 23.6% Fibonacci level. This could cause a bullish bounce. But the bearish price action could signal the start of an ABCDE triangle pattern (orange) within the wave 4 (purple). A retracement could reach deeper Fibonacci levels and still be part of the wave 4 (purple). A bullish continuation is expected once price action completes the pullback.

NQ Daily Chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Gold Triangle Pattern Completing Final Wave E Pattern

Gold (XAU/USD) is confirming a contracting triangle chart pattern. This price pattern was expected in our analysis after price action strongly dropped within a large and established uptrend. Is the triangle now close to being completed?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Gold 4 hour chart

The XAU/USD is now testing the bottom of wave C (blue box). This is a critical and interesting point of any potential triangle pattern. The reason is simple: price is close to either confirming (green check) or invalidating (red x) this wave pattern. The retest of the previous bottoms could be a final wave E (orange) and indicate the end of the triangle pattern. This would also complete wave 4 (purple).

The breakout above the resistance trend line and the top of wave D (red box) would confirm the end of the triangle pattern and the continuation of the uptrend. The breakout is likely part of a wave 5. This wave 5 could be part of a wave 3 on higher time frames – especially when considering the strong uptrend. It is key that price action stays above the wave C bottom. A break above the 21 ema zone could already be a first clue that an upside break is around the corner.

Gold 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

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EUR/USD 200 Pip Bearish Bounce Starts Larger Pullback

The EUR/USD has reached the major target and round psychological level at 1.20. This round level could be the end of wave 3 and start a large retracement. What’s the next step for this pair?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 4 hour chart

The EUR/USD completed a bearish ABC (pink) retracement as part of the wave 4 (orange). The last push up towards 1.20 has probably completed a wave 5 (orange) of wave 3 (purple). The current impulsive push down is therefore a wave A (orange). But the channel support (purple) and the 144 ema are expected to be a strong support zone. A bullish bounce is expected either now or at the 23.6% Fibonacci level.

A bullish bounce should take place in 3 waves, if price action is forming a wave B (orange). Price could move up towards the head and shoulders level (purple boxes), which in turn is expected to act as resistance. The main targets are the Fibonacci retracement levels (red circles). Only a break above the channel top and 1.20 target would make the bearish pullback less likely (red x).

EUR/USD 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Remains Bullish Despite H&S Reversal Pattern

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) made a bullish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement support level. Is it time for a continuation of the uptrend or will the pattern expand into a complex correction?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

BTC/USD 4 hour chart

The BTC/USD remains in a strong uptrend. The long-term moving averages have a bullish angle and are all aligned to the upside. The bullish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level could indicate the end of a wave 4 (purple). But price action would need to bounce at the 144 ema or break above the resistance trend line. A bullish continuation is then expected to develop soon.

A break below the 144 ema could indicate an expanded wave 4 (blue) at a new low. In that case the head and shoulders pattern (red boxes) could push the price lower. The 50% Fibonacci level is another support zone. Only a break below the 50% Fib and other Fibs would make the bullish outlook less likely (red x). The wave 4 can also turn into a contracting triangle, which would mean another wave C, D, and E before the uptrend continues. The -27.2% target is at 13,350 and the -61.8% Fib target is at 14,500.

BTC/USD 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P500 Bullish Breakout Shows Strength of Uptrend

The S&P 500 showed a very strong breakout above the previous top and all-time high. The uptrend seems ready for an immediate continuation. What kind of targets can traders expect?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Weekly Chart

The S&P 500 showed clear and strong candle closes near the high on all 3 higher time frames, including the monthly, weekly and daily charts. The candles were large in size and closed near the high indicating clear bullish control in each candle. The weekly chart is showing the potential for price to complete one last wave 5 (green) after finishing a wave 4 (green) pullback. The wave 4 retracement could have been an expanding ABCDE (purple) wedge. The waves C, D and E respected the 23.6%, -27.2%, and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels neatly.

The S&P 500 chart is showing a clear uptrend as well. The purple trend line shows the support. The critical breakout occurred when price action crossed and broke above the long-term moving averages (144, 233, 610 ema). The current push up seems to be a wave 3 (orange). A mild shallow pullback should be part of wave 4 and an immediate uptrend continuation. But multiple waves 3-4 are also possible as price action could test and bounce at the 21 ema zone at least twice more. Any deeper retracement remains a potential support too at the blue boxes. Only a break below the 38.2% Fib makes a bullish outlook less likely (red x). Targets are located at 3680, 3850, 3980, and 4140.

Dow Jones Daily Chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Google Bullish Impulse Confirms Impressive Wave 3 Pattern

The Google stock is breaking into new highs. Can the uptrend keep pushing higher or will a reversal take place? Let’s review the daily chart in this article.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Google Daily Chart

Google has made a major bullish bounce since the massive decline in March 2020. The March crash seems to be a wave 4 (purple) retracement. Therefore, the current uptrend is part of a larger wave 5 (purple). The momentum however remains strong and price action is probably still pusher higher within a wave 3 (orange).

Once the wave 3 is completed, a larger but shallow pullback within wave 4 (orange) is expected. Price action could use the support from the previous top and bottoms to make a bullish bounce and uptrend continuation. Only a deep correction makes the bullish outlook unlikely (red x). For the moment, Google stock is expecting at least one more higher high.

Google Daily Chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.