EUR/USD Bearish Zigzag Pattern Has Target at 1.20

The EUR/USD is breaching the 144 ema support zone. This indicates bearish pressure. A breakout could confirm the decline in wave C (pink). Let’s review the chart and wave patterns.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 15.01.2021 4 hour chart

The EUR/USD needs to push below the support trend line (green). This confirms the bearish break and ABC (pink) zigzag pattern (orange arrows).

The main target is located at the confluence of the -61.8% Fibonacci target and psychological round level at 1.20 (blue box).

A break above the resistance trend line (orange), however, indicates a bullish retracement first (green arrows). The main resistance zone is at the Fibonacci levels of wave B (pink).

The ABC pattern could complete a larger wave 4 (purple) of the uptrend.

On the 1 hour chart, a completed ABC (grey) pattern is visible within wave B (pink). The bearish price action is clear with lower lows and lower highs. The trend line (orange) is another confirmation.

But price action will need to push below support to start the breakout. Otherwise a counter trend retracement does linger as a danger.

EUR/USD 15.01.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

FedEx Aims for +20% Target Despite Strong Decline

The FedEx Corporation (FDX) has recently retraced to and bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

This analysis reviews the potential wave and chart patterns connected to a 38.2% Fib bounce. We also pinpoint the best target for the upcoming few trading weeks.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Fedex 14.01.2021 daily chart

The FDX daily chart has retraced down to the 38.2% Fibonacci and 144 ema zone. But the overall trend is strongly up. We can see this simply by adding long-term moving averages (blue box).

The quick pace of the decline, however, does indicate that the retracement is likely to be lengthy or deeper than usual for a wave 4 (grey). Here is what to expect, starting with the most likely:

  • An ABCDE triangle chart pattern (as shown in the image)
  • An ABC bull flag pattern
  • An ABC zigzag pattern

Although price action made a strong decline, a bullish bounce back towards the deep Fibonacci levels and previous top is likely to occur within a wave B (orange). The main target zone is therefore around $292-$305 for the short-term.

At the moment, a bearish bounce is expected at the target zone to create a wave C (orange). Eventually a new high is expected at around $350 once the triangle is completed (blue arrow).

On the 1 hour chart, we already see blue Elliott Wave candles emerge. This is indicating the potential start of the bullish run in wave B (orange).

The first target is the 38.2% Fib zone and long-term moving averages. Here we expect a bounce down and a higher low before a new bullish swing up again.

Fedex 14.01.2021 hourly chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

DJI 30 Close to Full Uptrend Continuation Despite Wedge

The Dow Jones Index (US 30) is in a strong uptrend. Although price action has recently become quite slow and choppy. Also, a rising wedge pattern is visible as well. Will the bulls be able to push through resistance to keep the uptrend alive?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Dow Jones chart 13.01.2021

The US30 chart needs a break above the current high at 31,263 to confirm the uptrend.

A bullish breakout could trigger strong momentum to the upside, because price action is breaking the wedge.

A bearish break below the 21 ema zone, however, is not worrying for the bulls.

  • Price action could simply be making a deeper retracement.
  • A bullish bounce at the long trend line and moving averages is likely.
  • Only a deeper break below the long-term MAs could put the uptrend on pauze (yellow & red circles).

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that an ABC (orange) pattern has been completed at the 50% Fibonacci level. A bullish bounce seems to confirm the end of the wave 4 (green).

A bullish break above the resistance trend line (orange) could confirm the uptrend continuation. Main targets are located at $31,500 to $32,500.

13.01.2021 Dow Jones hourly chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

Bitcoin Start Triangle After Massive Uptrend Breaks $40k

The BTC/USD (Bitcoin) has broken above the $40,000 resistance zone after an exceptionally strong move up. Is the trend overstretched? Let’s review the wave and chart patterns.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

BTC/USD 12.01.2021 4 hour chart

The BTC/USD is not showing any significant signs of a reversal. There is no divergence on the 4 hour chart or higher time frames. Also, the momentum up is very strong.

That said, the counter trend decline did reach the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This could indicate a deep or longer retracement via an ABC correction or ABCDE triangle.

As long as price stays above the 50-61.8% Fibonacci support zone, an uptrend has the best chance of continuing higher (blue arrow) for new high. Only a break below the deep Fibonacci levels would change and invalidate that view.

On the 1 hour chart, price action seems to have completed a wave A (pink) of a wave 4 (purple) correction. The wave could become numerous different types of corrections:

  • ABC flat
  • ABCDE triangle
  • ABC zigzag

The first two options are the most likely scenarios. This means that a deeper retracement towards the resistance and then a bounce back down is the most likely pattern.

BTC/USD 12.01.2021 1 hour chart

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

EUR/USD Bears in Control After Rising Wedge Break

The EUR/USD rising wedge chart pattern is confirming a bearish reversal or retracement. How long can the bears keep control before the bulls step in?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 11.01.2021 4 hour chart

The EUR/USD had several warnings signals indicating the end of the uptrend:

  1. The double divergence between the tops (orange lines)
  2. The rising wedge reversal chart pattern
  3. The break below the wedge and the 21 ema zone zone
  4. The strong bearish price action after the break in step 3

Price action has in the meantime reached its first target at the 144 ema zone. This could provide support for a bullish bounce, eventually.

But considering the strength of the bearish decline, a fall towards the wizz 5 target and 233 ema could take place first.

After that, a bullish retracement has the best odds. Either via a bear flag chart pattern or via an ABC retracement back to the resistance zone.

A head and shoulders pattern (purple boxes) could further aid the bears for a move down towards the wizz 7 target around 1.20.

On the 1 hour chart, price action could build a 5 wave pattern (grey). Once the wave 3 is completed, a bullish pullback in wave 4 towards the resistance line (orange) is likely.

After that, we expect a bearish drop for a wave 5 to complete the wave A (purple) on the 4 hour chart.

EUR/USD 11.01.2021 1 hour chart

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Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

EUR/JPY: Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis for Trading Year 2021

The EUR/JPY monthly chart is building a lengthy contracting triangle chart pattern. But the pattern seems to be running out of space.

A breakout will therefore probably take place in 2021. Let’s review the wave and chart patterns.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY 07.01.2021 Monthly chart

The EUR/JPY has possibly completed an ABCDE (pink) triangle pattern at the most recent low. The 5 wave structure could break both ways:

  • If we follow the wave patterns mentioned in the chart, then a bullish breakout has better odds (green arrows).
  • A break above the long-term moving averages and resistance trend line would confirm that breakout.
  • A break below the 21 ema zone could indicate a pullback to test the support trend line. A bullish bounce (blue arrow) is still possible.
  • A bearish breakout below the support trend line indicates an opposite triangle breakout (orange dotted arrows).

Of course, there is always the chance that a triangle pattern could become extended. The wave C might prove to be unfinished. For now, the triangle pattern is reaching a point where a breakout is becoming more likely.

It is important to keep an eye on chart patterns on lower time frames once the breakout occurs. The appearance of reversal or continuation chart patterns could indicate whether the breakout has a chance of success. Or whether it will turn into a failed breakout pattern.

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,
Chris Svorcik

Gold: Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis for Trading Year 2021

Gold (XAU/USD) has made a massive bullish run in the year 2020. After reaching the -200% Fibonacci target, it has confirmed the development of a wave 3 rather than a wave C.

How far can the uptrend last and what targets? Let’s review.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Gold monthly chart 06.01.2021

XAU/USD has not been able to confirm a new high in the past 4 months. Here are the key aspects from a timing perspective:

  • The uptrend and wave 3 continuation (pink) still has the best odds in the first quarter of 2021.
  • But a failure to break by March 2021 could indicate a larger retracement in wave 4 (pink).

A bullish breakout (green arrow) above the resistance trend line (red) could confirm the continuation of the uptrend. But a bounce at the top could start a larger triangle pattern (grey arrows). The main target zones are at $2,250 and $2,500.

A failure to break could indicate a deeper retracement towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The uptrend remains favourite as long as price action stays above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,
Chris Svorcik

 

DAX 30: Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis for Trading Year 2021

The German stock index DAX 30 is testing and breaking the previous highs and double top. Will the bulls be able to break above the resistance during the third attempt?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

DAX 05.01.2021 monthly chart

The DAX 30 uptrend is expected to succeed with the 3rd or even 4th breakout. Let’s review the scenarios:

  • The bearish swing during March 2020 was probably an impulsive wave C (grey) of a wave 4 (pink) correction.
  • Therefore, a bullish breakout above the top could confirm the uptrend and waves 5.
  • A 4th attempt to break could occur if price action retests the 21 ema zone again and makes a bullish bounce.
  • Only a break below the 21 ema zone places the long-term uptrend on hold (yellow circle). And a break below the 144 ema – 233 ema zone indicates the end (red circle).

The bullish breakout is aiming at the -27.2% Fibonacci target at around $16,000 with $15k also being an important round level.

The push up could become choppier and a rising wedge pattern might occur (grey lines). Also a break, pullback towards the broken resistance, and bounce pattern could develop.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter.

Good trading,
Chris Svorcik

EUR/USD Double Divergence Warning Signal for Strong Uptrend

The EUR/USD is showing double bearish divergence within the strong uptrend. What does the divergence on the 4 hour indicate for the start of the new trading year in 2021?

This article reviews the expected wave and chart patterns plus key targets and support and resistance levels.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 04.01.2020 4 hour chart

The EUR/USD double divergence is certainly a warning sign for the bulls. This increases the chance that a bearish retracement is likely to occur.

  • The main confirmation of a pullback is when price breaks below the support line (blue).
  • The main target for the bearish breakout (orange arrows) is the 144 ema zone.
  • The 144 ema is where the uptrend could continue and find support (blue arrows).

The other possibility is that the divergence pattern creates a pauze in the uptrend. A triangle chart pattern might emerge first (grey arrows).

An immediate breakout above the yearly high of 2020 is not expected right now. But any bullish continuation, now or later, is aiming at 1.24 and 1.25.

On the 15 minute chart, price action could be building a bullish ABC (grey) pattern. A bearish bounce could take place at resistance.

But for a larger retracement to take place, price action needs to break below the support (green) for a breakout (red arrow).

Bull flag patterns (orange arrows) could indicate that the bulls are too strong and could over rule the divergence on the 4 hour chart.

EUR/USD 04.01.2020 1 hour chart

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Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

Bitcoin Uptrend Shows No Signs of Stopping

Bitcoin broke above the round resistance levels of $25,000 and $27,500 with ease. The massive bullish momentum seems to be confirming an impulsive wave 3 of a higher degree.

What can traders expect in this bull run? Let’s review the key Fibonacci support levels.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

BTC/USD 30.12.2020 4 hour chart

The BTC/USD train is now approaching the $30,000 mark. An immediate push higher (blue arrow) towards the next round level is one of the possibilities.

The 30k target could create some selling and a pullback. However, as long as price action shows choppy corrections, more upside continuation remains the most likely scenario.

Another alternative is that price action will show a retracement before hitting 30k. Then price could fall back to the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. This a potential support zone and bullish bounce.

On the 15 minute chart, we can try to estimate whether that immediate continuation will occur or whether price action will create a retracement first.

The key support zone is the 38.2-50% Fibonacci levels. A bullish bounce would confirm a wave 4 (grey) pullback on the lower time frame. And the uptrend could continue within the wave 5 (grey).

Whereas a bearish break below the 61.8% Fib invalidates (red circle) the current wave outlook. This could be a first indication that a deeper pullback is taking place on the 4 hour chart.

BTC/USD 30.12.2020 15 minute chart

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

GBP/USD Roller Coaster Part of Wave 4 Pullback in Uptrend

The GBP/USD is creating an increased price volatility between 1.3205 support and 1.35 resistance zones. That said, price action remains in a solid uptrend when comparing the moving averages (21 ema above 144 ema above 610).

What is next for the Cable? How can the Elliott Wave and chart patterns help our analysis? Let’s review them all.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

GBP/USD 29.12.2020 daily chart

The GBP/USD is building a bullish 5 wave pattern (purple) after a long-term downtrend. The wave 5 could complete a larger wave A (blue) of an ABC (blue).

The main question is whether the smaller wave 5 (pink) has already been completed. And for the moment, the answer seems to be no. Why?

Because the recent ups and downs are probably part of a wave 4 (pink) retracement. This remains valid as long as price action respects the support zone of the uptrend channel (green).

A break below the support invalidates (red circle) this wave outlook and indicates a deeper bearish retracement. A bullish bounce, however, could indicate one more push up towards the top of the channel around 1.37.

On the 1 hour chart, it is possible to monitor the development of the potential wave 4 (pink). The upside looks like an ABC (orange) that completes wave B (grey).

A bearish breakout could confirm the wave C (grey). The main target zone is the previous bottom (blue box).

A bullish breakout followed by a bull flag and another break upwards would invalidate (red circle) the expected bearish wave C.

GBP/USD 1 hour chart 29.12.2020

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

EUR/USD Moment of Truth with Bullish Breakout

The EUR/USD seems to have completed a triangle chart pattern. The shallow retracement could indicate the end of the wave 4 (pink) and the restart of the uptrend.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 4 hour chart

The EUR/USD break above the resistance trend line with strong price action confirms that the bulls are back in control.

But the real test will be what happens when price makes a pullback. We should expect a pullback to occur before the breakout is 100% confirmed

The internal price swings seem to match an ABCDE (grey) chart pattern within wave 4 (pink). Price is now moving up within a wave 5 (pink) of a potential larger wave 3 (purple).

An unexpected break below the support, however, could indicate a false breakout. This would create a deeper pullback (dotted orange line) towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which is expected to act as a bounce.

On the 1 hour chart, price action is building that pullback after the bullish breakout. It is now testing the Fibonacci support levels, which is a key decision zone.

A bearish breakout below the bottom invalidates the breakout and indicates one of two things:

  • Either a larger bearish pullback is taking place. In that case, price also needs to break below the bottom of wave C and wave A.
  • Or a larger triangle chart pattern is taking place with an expanded wave d (grey d’) and wave e (grey e’).

A bullish break above 1.2250 should send this pair higher towards the immediate target at 1.2325 with possible extensions at 1.24 and 1.25.

EUR/USD 1 hour chart 28.12.2020

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

 

Google Testing 38.2% Fib Support After 8% Decline

Google (GOOG) made a bullish breakout above the bull flat pattern as expected in our previous wave analysis. But a bearish pullback is taking place soon after price confirmed a higher high.

Price action is now testing the key support trend line (green) and the Fibonacci support. Let’s review what to expect.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Google 23.12.2020 4 hour chart

Google seems to be in a wave 4 (pink) pattern. This means that the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is a key support zone within the uptrend.

A bullish bounce at the Fib could confirm our view. But a breakout above the resistance trend line (orange) and 21 ema zone is needed to indicate the end of wave 4 and start of wave 5 (pink).

Even a deeper retracement towards the 50-61.8% Fibonacci zone could be part of a wave 4. But a break below the 61.8% Fib certainly places the uptrend on hold (yellow circle) whereas a break below the top of wave 1 invalidates it (red circle).

On the 1 hour chart, price action is building an ABC (grey) pattern. Which could complete wave 4 (pink) if price action can break above the local resistance (orange boxes) and long-term moving averages.

A break below the support trend line (green) indicates a push towards the 50% Fibonacci level mentioned on the 4 hour chart.

The bullish targets are first $1,800, followed by the previous top at $1,846 and the -27.2% Fibonacci target at around $1,950.

Google 23.12.2020 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

Bitcoin’s Doji on Daily Chart Indicates ABC Pullback

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closed with a Doji candle yesterday. This indicates indecision after several bullish daily candles made an impressive new all-time high at $24,000.

The angle of and distance between the moving averages confirm the massive uptrend at the moment. But is it time for some type of pullback? Let’s review.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

BTC/USD 21.12.2020 daily chart

BTC/USD is currently developing a wave 3 (blue). As long as price action stays above the smaller 38.2-50% Fibonacci support zone, then price action is expected to stay in that wave 3.

In that case, price could easily go sideways and then break up north (blue arrow) for a new all-time high at the round psychological level of $25,000.

A bearish breakout, however, could indicate a larger retracement. This could start a wave 4 (blue) pattern:

  • The main targets are the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels.
  • A bullish bounce is expected at the Fib support (blue arrows).
  • Only a break below these Fibs places the uptrend on hold (yellow circles).

On the 4 hour chart, price action has completed a wave 5 (purple) of wave 3 (pink) at the recent high.

The current retracement seems to be a wave A (purple). Price action will probably build an ABC correction or ABCDE triangle pattern.

After the consolidation pattern is completed, a breakout above the resistance would confirm the continuation of the uptrend within wave 5 (pink).

Price action should bounce at the long-term moving averages (blue box) and Fibonacci support zone, otherwise a larger retracement is taking place on the daily chart.

BTC/USD 21.12.2020 1 hour chart

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

EUR/JPY Bullish Outlook at 125 Support or Above 126.25

The EUR/JPY is testing the previous top at 127. Price action did confirm the previous expected bullish bounce at the 50% Fib.

Now, the uptrend has reached a pivotal moment: will the uptrend be able to continue above the top? Or will a larger bearish pullback take control?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY 21.12.2020 daily chart

The EUR/JPY has a better chance of continuing with the uptrend for the moment. Mainly because of:

  1. Te bullish break above the resistance trend lines (dotted orange)
  2. The strong push above and away from the 21 ema zone
  3. The wave patterns suggest a completed ABC (grey) correction within wave 4 (orange)

The key decision zone is the 21 ema high and low. A bullish bounce would indicate that an uptrend continuation (green arrows) is probable

A bearish breakout, however, indicates a deeper retracement (red arrows). In that case, the immediate wave 123 (grey) pattern failed but the larger uptrend remains intact (blue arrows) via an expanded wave 4 (orange 4’).

On the 4 hour chart, price action bounced at the resistance of the Wizz 8 level and previous top. This could indicate an ABC (black) pattern within wave 4 (pink).

A bearish breakout could drop towards the Fibonacci targets around 124.50-125-125.50, where a bullish bounce is expected (green arrow).

An immediate bullish breakout (blue arrows) could take place if price action turns around and breaks above the local resistance zone.

EUR/JPY 21.12.2020 4 hour chart

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

 

McDonalds Bullish Reversal at 50% Fib of Wave 4

McDonalds (MCD) stocks has made a bullish reverse at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Does this indicate the end of the retracement and restart of the uptrend? The next earnings date is on 4 February 2021.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

McDonalds stock 18.12.2020 daily chart

MCD seems to have completed a wave 4 (pink) pattern. This remains valid as long as price stays above the top of wave 1 (blue box). A break below it invalidates (red circle) our wave outlook.

A bullish breakout, on the other hand, confirms our bullish view. A wave 5 pattern could emerge above the resistance zone.

The main targets for upside are the -27.2% Fib at $246 and -61.8% Fib target at $264.

On the 1 hour chart, we see a first hint of a bullish reversal: the price action completed a 5 wave (orange) pattern. This seems to complete a wave 1 (grey).

  • A bearish breakout could indicate a deeper retracement towards the Fibonacci retracement levels. They are expected to create a bounce or reversal.
  • Only a break below the bottom and 100% Fibonacci level indicates an invalidation (red circle).
  • A bullish breakout could indicate a new uptrend again.
  • After the break, price action should make a bull flag to avoid any false breakouts

McDonald's stock 18.12.2020 1 hour chart

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

Bitcoin is Hot: Massive Breakout Above $20k Top

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has finally done it: price action managed to break above the $20,000 (20k) resistance and the all time high of 2017 yesterday.

The main questions racing through every trader’s mind are simple: will the trend continue? And if yes, how much pullback (discount) can be expected? Let’s review.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Bitcoin 17.12.20 daily chart

The BTC/USD’s third attempt to break above the 20k resistance zone finally worked. Price action went sideways at the resistance zone, which indicated that there were no sellers pushing price lower.

The consolidation zone at the 20k resistance indicates a wave 4 (grey) pattern. The swift break above the -27.2% Fibonacci target is indicating strong momentum as well. Typical for a wave 3 (purple) pattern.

The volatile price action will be a difficult read. But an uptrend continuation is very likely to take place. The first target is the -61.8% Fibonacci level at $25,000. Higher targets could be $26,500 and then $27,500 followed by the round $30k level.

On the 15 minute chart, price action seems to have completed a strong bullish swing. This has been labelled as a wave 3 (orange) for now. But it will depend on the type of retracement.

  • A mild pullback that stays above the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels could indicate an uptrend continuation.
  • A strong bearish push might indicate that the break above the top was a short lived bull run.

The pullback pattern will be key for understanding whether the uptrend can continue. If there is a shallow one, then it will probably be a wave 4 (orange) with more upside left.

Bitcoin 17.12.20 15 minute chart

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

Silver Bulls Prepare for Massive Uptrend Above $25

The Silver chart (XAG/USD) is showing a lot of potential for the bulls. The strong surge from $12 to almost $30 during March and July 2020 was an extremely impulsive price swing.

Is a breakout nearby? And what kind of bullish targets are possible? Let’s review the key chart and wave patterns.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

XAG/USD 16.12.2020 daily chart

The XAG/USD needs to break above the resistance trend line (orange) and fractal to confirm the uptrend continuation.

This break would confirm the currently expected wave pattern. Which is a wave 12345 (pink). The most recent top is probably a wave 3 and the current pullback a wave 4.

This wave outlook remains valid as long as price stays above the 50% Fib. A break below the support places it on hold (yellow) and a deeper break indicates an invalidation (red).

The main targets are located at the Fibonacci levels, such as:

  • -27.2% Fibonacci target at $34.78
  • -61.8% Fibonacci target at $41.07
  • -100% Fibonacci target at $48 and previous top
  • A break of the top

On the 4 hour chart, price action could have completed a 5 wave (grey) pattern within the wave C (purple) at the lowest low.

The current bullish momentum is probably a wave 1 (grey) pattern. And the pullback might have completed a wave 2 (grey).

But price action needs to break above the top. A failure to break could indicate a deeper pullback (dotted orange arrows).

The Silver chart looks bullish either after a breakout or after a pullback.

XAG/USD 16.12.2020 4 hour chart

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

EUR/USD Prepares for Bullish Breakout Towards 1.2250

The EUR/USD remains above the 21 ema support zone. This indicates that an uptrend is likely to continue above the Wizz 8 resistance zone.

This article reviews the bullish targets – as well the bearish wave outlook if price action breaks below the 21 ema zone.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 4 hour chart 15.12.2020

The EUR/USD seems to have completed a shallow wave 4 (purple) retracement. The current momentum and pullback pattern is probably a wave 1-2 (orange).

A bullish breakout (green arrow) above the resistance (orange) confirms the uptrend continuation. The main targets are located at 1.2250, 1.2350 and even 1.25.

The uptrend could see multiple higher highs before finishing. The wave patterns suggest that price could be in a wave 3 (pink) of wave 3 (blue).

A break below the 21 ema zone (orange arrows) means that price action is probably building a deeper wave 4. Price action could fall towards the 144 ema zone and expect a bounce there (blue arrows).

On the 1 hour chart, price action is looking for a bullish breakout above the resistance (orange) to confirm the uptrend.

A break below the bottom of wave 1 invalidates (red circle) the current wave 1-2 (grey) outlook. A deeper retracement is expected but the uptrend remains intact.

EUR/USD 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Long-Term Wave Analysis for the Year 2021

The GBP/USD is testing the top of the 21 ema zone and key long-term resistance trend line (orange). Price action is staying above the 21 ema zone so a bullish breakout is expected.

This article reviews implications of the break for the year 2021. We also analyse the expected wave and chart patterns.

Of course, keep in mind that the brexit process, Covid-19, global economy, the UK and US economies, and geopolitics could at any point during 2021 change the expected course of price in a different direction. We will do updates during 2021 as well on the long-term vision.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

GBP/USD monthly chart 14.12.20

The GBP/USD seems to have completed a wave 5 of wave C (blue) at the most recent low.

The double divergence between the lows is certainly a key factor (purple line). This could indicate the end of a long-term downtrend.

A bullish breakout above the resistance (orange) seems likely when taking into account the strong bullish price action. This indicates a possible bullish wave A or 1 (blue).

After a potential breakout (green arrow), a retracement (orange arrows) is expected to take place. A bearish ABC could take price back to the low 1.20s. This should complete a wave B or 2 (blue).

On the daily chart, the GBP/USD seems to be building a final wave 5 (purple). The current test of the 21 ema zone is either a reversal or a wave 4 (green).

A bullish breakout indicates one more push higher within the current uptrend. Main targets are located at 1.3750, 1.3850, and 1.40.

However, if price action breaks below the support zone (green box and lines), then a downtrend is expected to create a wave B/2 (blue) on the monthly chart.

GBP/USD daily chart 12.12.20

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter