EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 19 – 20 Apr 2021

The EUR/USD made a wave 4 pullback and price action is now testing the 50% Fibonacci level and target zone at 1.2025. The GBP/USD bullish bounce at the channel bottom is looking very impulsive as well.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD could move up once more, despite the resistance zone. The bullish momentum is looking strong and a mild pullback to the shallow Fibs at 1.20 could confirm a bounce up towards the next target zone at 1.21.

The GBP/USD bullish momentum needs a 1 hour bull flag pattern followed by a breakout for more upside towards 1.3950 and 1.40.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 19 – 20 April 2021:

EUR/USD, GBP/USD technical analysis: patterns, trends, key S&R levels

  • Explanation of potential trade ideas both up and down
  • Beginner friendly, explaining concepts in more detail

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Video

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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Bitcoin’s Weekend Decline Finds Support at Shallow Fibonacci Levels

The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) made a strong decline during the weekend. The price drop occurred after breaking the 60k resistance last week and reaching the first $65k target.

Although the bearish correction was impulsive, this article will analyse why the uptrend still has better odds than a reversal. Let’s start.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Bitcoin 19.04.2021 daily chart

The BTC/USD completed the wave 4 (orange) as mentioned last time. We considered the next push up as a wave 5 (orange):

  1. This wave 5 did not move up that far and high, but it is quite normal for the uptrend to lose some momentum in a wave 5 (purple line in the AO). There was a small rising wedge pattern that probably supported the slow move up.
  2. The wave 5 (orange) of wave 5 (grey) probably completed a larger wave 3 (pink). The wave 3 is showing overall a lot of momentum (strong AO bars).
  3. The bearish correction, even though price dropped a lot during the weekend, does not change the overall uptrend because price action is respecting the shallow 23.6 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels (blue boxes).
  4. The bounce at the Fibs is typical for a wave 4 (pink). Another correction could take place via an ABC (grey) pattern.
  5. The first breakout above the 21 ema zone is therefore risky because price could make a higher low first. But a 2nd breakout above the 21 ema zone and the 60-62.5k resistance zone followed by the top at 65k should create another strong push up later in April, May or June.
  6. The next targets are located at the round levels of $70k, $75k, and even $100k.
  7. A break below the support at 50k would certainly place the uptrend on hold and perhaps even indicate an early end.

On the 4 hour chart, we can see the bearish correction took price action from the top of the channel back down to the bottom of the channel and the long-term moving averages:

  1. A bullish bounce could indicate that the bearish decline is just a correction.
  2. The uptrend, however, might take a small pauze as price action creates a potential wave 4 (pink).
  3. A retest of the previous top and bearish bounce could indicate a wave B (grey). An ABC (orange) correction could emerge within wave B (grey).
  4. If there is a 5 wave pattern moving up, then the uptrend might be immediately taking place.
  5. A retest of the support trend line could take place within wave B (orange) and after wave C (grey).This could indicate the end of the correction.

Bitcoin 19.04.2021 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

ETH/USD Shows Pullback in Strong Bullish Impulse and Large Uptrend

Ethereum (ETH/USD) continued with the uptrend and made another higher high as expected. Price action has now reached the first -27.2% Fibonacci target.

Can the uptrend continue higher? And if so, what are the next targets?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

ETH 16.04.2021 daily chart

The ETH/USD completed a bearish ABC (grey) pattern in wave 4 (pink) after bouncing at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (blue box):

  1. Price action has reached the first -27.2% Fibonacci target (smaller blue box).
  2. The momentum is very strong because of these reasons:
    1. Daily candles are showing an impulse with a majority of large bullish candles closing near the daily high.
    2. The HMA 20 has a bullish angle with price action above it.
    3. The momentum indicator confirms that 10 daily candles have not hit the 21 ema zone (green box). Usually the momentum continues (see green boxes before) higher.
    4. The 21 ema zone has a steep angle and all of the moving averages are bullishly aligned with large spaces between the MAs.
  3. Considering the strong momentum, an immediate continuation has the highest probability (blue arrow).
  4. The next targets are at the -61.8% Fibonacci level around $2800 and the round $3000 level.
  5. The upside is probably part of multiple wave 3 patterns (purple/red).

On the 1 hour chart, price has been above the 21 ema for more than 1 week now. The bullish bounce at the 144-233 ema zone on the left of the chart was followed by another round of buying:

  1. The wave patterns suggest an ongoing wave 3 (grey) considering the strong bullish momentum.
  2. The current pullback respected the 38.2% Fibonacci of the shallow price swing. This could be a wave A (green) of a larger ABC (green) in wave 4 (blue).
  3. The 1st or 2nd breakout above the 21 ema zone (green arrow) could confirm the uptrend continuation.
  4. The uptrend certainly remains strong as long as price action remains above the 144-233 ema long-term MA.
  5. This wave outlook is confirmed if there are bullish bounces at the support zone and max 50% Fib. A break below the 50% Fib places it on hold (yellow) and a deeper retrace invalidates it (red).

Ethereum 16.04.2021 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Range Reaches Decisive Moment for Bear or Bull Break

The GBP/USD is showing a lengthy bearish reversal since the end of February 2021. More recently, price action has bounced at the previous bottom (blue box) creating a double bottom.

The GBP/USD is now stuck between support and resistance but a breakout could offer the needed clarification. Let’s review.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

GBP/USD 15.04.2021 4 hour chart

The GBP/USD seems to have completed a bearish 5 wave pattern (purple). This could be part of a larger bearish ABC pattern (red).

  1. Currently price action is probably in a bullish wave C (purple), which could complete the wave B (red) of a larger ABC (red).
  2. The double bottom could have completed the wave c (pink) of wave B (purple).
  3. A bullish breakout (green arrows) above the resistance trend line (orange) and long-term moving averages would confirm this analysis.
  4. The main upside targets are the previous tops (red boxes).
  5. A bearish bounce at the resistance (orange arrows) could end the wave B (red) and start the wave C (red),
  6. A bearish push could retest the support line (green) and bounce (blue arrow).
  7. A bearish breakout below the support (green) could indicate a downtrend (red arrows). In that case, price action could be completing a bearish 123 (black) and the bullish correction is invalidated.

On the 1 hour chart, blue SWAT candles indicate a bullish trend. But a breakout remains key for confirming any upside:

  1. A push above wizz 4 level with strong price action could confirm the breakout (green arrows).
  2. The bullish break could confirm the wave 3 (green) of 3 (grey) within the larger wave C (pink) of the 4 hour chart.
  3. A bearish breakout (red arrow), however, indicates that the upside was not a wave 1-2 but an ABC (orange) pattern.

GBP/USD 15.04.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 14 – 16 Apr 2021

The EUR/USD bullish wave 5 has reached the first target zone at 1.1975. But an extension for one more higher high is possible if price action bounces at the shallow Fibs near 1.1937-50. The GBP/USD remains stuck between the moving averages but a bullish breakout could occur if a triangle chart pattern emerges.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD bullish breakout could aim for the 1.20-1.2025 Fib target zone. This is where the 5 wave pattern of wave A could be completed.

The GBP/USD bullish bounce or breakout could aim as high as 1.39, which is the previous top and resistance zone.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 14 – 16 April 2021:

EUR/USD, GBP/USD technical analysis: patterns, trends, key S&R levels

  • Explanation of potential trade ideas both up and down
  • Beginner friendly, explaining concepts in more detail

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Video

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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Google Impulsive Bullish Breakout Now Looking for Support at Fib Levels

The Alphabet stock (GOOG) made a strong bullish breakout above the triangle pattern. The breakout is taking place in a well established uptrend channel (green lines).

This article reviews whether the uptrend can continue higher or not. We also review key support and resistance levels plus potential targets.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Google 14.04.2021 daily chart

The GOOG stock triangle chart pattern completed an ABC (green) within a shallow wave 4 pullback.

Price action bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci level and has already reached the -27.2% Fibonacci target. What can be expected next?

  1. No divergence pattern is visible so far. This means that the uptrend remains strong and impulsive, which is indicating that bulls remain in control.
  2. The current bullish price swing is part of a larger wave 3 (pink) of wave 3 (purple), which indicates that more upside is likely.
  3. A full uptrend is visible with a clear uptrend channel (green lines) and moving averages aligned with the 21 ema above the 144 ema and above the 233 and 610 emas.
  4. Considering the strong price push away from the 21 ema, it is likely that the Fibonacci levels of the most recent price swing will act as support and cause a bounce (green arrows) if a pullback occurs (orange arrows).
  5. The next targets are located at $2400, $2500, and $2600.

On the 4 hour chart, we can see multiple waves 3 already appear in the recent past. This is indicating a strong uptrend.

  1. Currently price is in a wave 3 (green). Price could continue higher within wave 3.
  2. Eventually now or later, a shallow pullback (orange arrows) could confirm the end of the wave 3 (green) and the start the wave 4 (green).
  3. The Fibonacci levels are expected to act as support for a bounce (green arrows).
  4. A break below the previous tops (green box) could place the current wave outlook on hold (orange circle) or invalidate it (red circle).
  5. A deeper retracement does not mean that the uptrend is over. Price action could still bounce at the 144 ema close.

Google 14.04.2021 daily chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Range After Wave 3 Remains Bullish and Aims at 1.20

The EUR/USD made a bullish wave 3 (orange) as expected in our previous analysis. Now price action is moving sideways. What will the next price swing do?

This article reviews the key price and chart patterns. We also analyse the targets for both directions.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 13.04.2021 4 hour chart

The EUR/USD is now going sideways, which means it’s building a range. The breakout of the range is key. But we expect a bullish breakout due to the strong bullish momentum (wave 3 orange):

  1. Price action seems to have completed a bearish ABC (grey) pattern in wave A (pink) at the recent low. With 5 waves (blue) in wave 5 (orange) finishing at 1.17 support.
  2. Then a strong rally confirmed the bullish reversal. Price action has remained above the 21 ema zone. The momentum indicates a wave 3 (orange).
  3. After that, the pullback has been mild. Price action has been respecting the 21 ema zone. This is typical for a wave 4 (orange).
  4. A breakout above the resistance (orange) could indicate a push higher towards the Fibonacci targets. The main target is at the 50% Fib around 1.20-1.2025.
  5. A bearish bounce at the 50% Fib could confirm the end of the wave A (grey) of wave B (pink).
  6. A bearish ABC pattern (orange) could indicate a wave B (grey).
  7. A bullish bounce back up is expected to start a 5 wave up within wave C (grey) of wave B (pink).
  8. Finally, a bearish reversal at the deep 88.6% Fib should send it lower for a wave C (pink) of wave 4 (purple).

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that price action has reached the -161.8% Fibonacci target (green box) after bouncing at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (green box). There were also 5 waves (green) in 5 waves (blue), which completed wave 3 (orange):

  1. Now price action is building more ABC corrections. An ABC (green) in wave B (blue) and a larger ABC (blue).
  2. The corrections are mainly sideways, or in other words a range. This is typical for a wave 4 (orange).
  3. The wave 4 remains valid as long as price stays above the 50% Fib. A bounce at the 38.2% Fib (blue arrow) is typical for a wave 4.
  4. But a deeper retracement places this wave outlook on hold (orange circle) or invalidates it (red circle).
  5. A bullish breakout (green arrow) confirms the upside for wave 5 (orange).

EUR/USD 13.04.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 12 – 13 Apr 2021

The EUR/USD is building an ABC correction in a wave 4 pattern. A breakout or bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level could confirm more upside. The GBP/USD made a double bottom at the double bottom but the resistance zone remains strong.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD bullish breakout could aim for the Fibonacci levels around 1.1975-1.2025. Here a bearish ABC pattern could emerge.

The GBP/USD needs a break above the 50% Fib at 1.3775 for a potential move upwards. A bearish bounce, however, could indicate a re-challenge of the double bottom.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 12 – 13 April 2021:

EUR/USD, GBP/USD technical analysis: patterns, trends, key S&R levels

  • Explanation of potential trade ideas both up and down
  • Beginner friendly, explaining concepts in more detail

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Video

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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Bitcoin Finally Breaks Above $60k After Completing Lengthy ABC Correction

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is breaking above the critical $60,000 resistance and previous top. Will the bulls be able to keep control today and this week? Or will the breakout turn out to be a false breakout.

We will review the key patterns for answering these questions. Plus we also analyse the potential support levels and upside targets.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

BTC/USD 12.04.2021 daily chart

The BTC/USD is showing a bullish breakout above the key $60k resistance, finally after weeks of sideways price action:

  1. The sideways pattern is probably an ABC (orange) correction in wave 4 (grey).
  2. Price respected the shallow 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which is indicating the bulls are still strongly in control/
  3. The price action prior to the consolidation was bullish and impulsive, indicating an ongoing wave 3 (purple).
  4. Price action keeps respecting the 21 ema zone, which indicates a strong uptrend.
  5. Today’s daily candle is critical for the breakout. A strong bullish candle with a close near the high indicates that the bulls remained in control even as price action is reaching the top. A big wick, however, indicates a potential failed break and retracement.
  6. Any bearish pullback is still expected to find support at the Fibonacci levels. Only a deeper retracement places the uptrend in danger.

On the 4 hour chart, a 4 hour candle has broken above the $60k mark. There are a couple of scenarios that could take place now:

  1. An immediate bullish continuation could send the price higher right away (blue arrow). Considering the lengthy consolidation zone, this seems the least likely scenario because the breakout could take longer. A candle close above $61k, however, could indicate more upside.
  2. Some type of pullback is more likely. But as long as the retracement remains shallow (orange arrows), then a bullish breakout and continuation pattern is expected (green arrow).
  3. A deeper retracement places the uptrend on hold (yellow circle) or invalidates it (red circle).
  4. The main targets for upside are located at $62.5, $65, $70, and $75 for the moment.

BTC/USD 12.04.2021 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Dow Jones Index Bullish Breakout Aims at 35,000 Target

The Dow Jones Index (US 30) is building a bull flag continuation chart pattern within a larger uptrend. A bullish breakout should confirm a push higher.

Let’s review the price and wave patterns plus review the main targets and what-if scenarios.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Dow Jones 09.04.2021 4 hour chart

The US 30 chart needs a break above the resistance trend lines (orange) to confirm a continuation of the uptrend (green arrows):

  1. The bullish breakout could confirm a wave 3 (light blue) pattern.
  2. The larger wave analysis is indicating a strong uptrend with a potential wave 3 (purple) of wave 3 (red).
  3. Recently price completed an ABC (light blue) within wave 4 (orange) at the 38.2% Fibonacci level and 144 ema close. The -27.2% Fibonacci target of that price swing is located at 34,000.
  4. But a wave 3 (light blue) could go as far as 34,600 or even 35,000 before losing momentum, if this is a wave 3.
  5. Any bearish breakout (orange dotted arrow) would invalidate this immediate bullish outlook. Although the long-term trend is still up and therefore any retracement could simply find support at the 144 ema close (blue dotted arrow).

On the 1 hour chart, price action seems to be building a sideways correction after showing strong bullish impulse (wave 3 green):

  1. The sideways range is probably a wave 4 (green), which respects the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
  2. A bullish breakout could indicate a push higher. Perhaps as part of the wave 5 (green).
  3. A pullback to the 50% Fibonacci level could still be a bouncing spot.
  4. Only a deeper break places this wave outlook in danger. But the uptrend still remains intact even if price action retraces, just with a different wave scenario.

Dow Jones 09.04.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

EUR/GBP Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern Creates Surge Higher

The EUR/GBP is making a bullish reversal via an inverted head and shoulders pattern (blue boxes).

A bullish monthly candle could indicate the end of the bearish price swing and the start of an uptrend. Let’s review the critical patterns and targets.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP 8.4.2021 monthly chart

The EUR/GBP is moving sideways after a strong surge up. This is probably a wave 3-4 pattern (red). Let’s review:

  1. The bearish correction respected the shallow 38.2-50% Fibonacci retracement levels, which is typical for a wave 4.
  2. The bullish bounce showed strength (wave 1) and the bearish correction seems to be building an ABC pattern (purple).
  3. A break above the 21 ema zone would confirm the bullish breakout (green arrows).
  4. A break below the bottom however invalidates it (red circle).

On the 4 hour chart, price action is showing very strong bullish momentum, as indicated by our blue ECS SWAT candlesticks:

  1. The divergence pattern between the bottoms (purple lines) indicated that a reversal was likely.
  2. The breakout above the resistance trend line (dotted orange), 21 ema zone, and 144 ema close indicate that a strong wave 3 (orange) is taking place.
  3. Intra-day continuation upward is possible in the zone above the Wizz 5 towards the Wizz 6 level.
  4. Eventually a pullback via a bull flag (orange arrows) is expected to retest the Wizz 4 or 5 levels for a bounce up (green arrows).
  5. Even a pullback towards the 144 ema or previous lows should act as support could indicate a bounce up. Only a break below the bottom invalidates it (red circle).
  6. The main targets on the 4 hour chart are the Wizz 6 level at 0.8720, then 0.8775-0.88, followed by 0.8950-0.90.

EUR/GBP 8.4.2021 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 7 – 9 Apr 2021

The EUR/USD is showing strong bullish momentum with a target at 1.1950 and 1.2025. Bull flag patterns could confirm the continuation higher. The GBP/USD is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A bullish bounce could indicate one more swing up.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD is showing strong bullish daily candles after a bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.17. The bullish reversal has already reached 1.19 and bull flag patterns are expected before reaching the target zone of 1.1950 and 1.2025 within a wave 5 of A.

The GBP/USD could be completing a bearish ABC pattern within wave B and ready for a move up within wave C if price action can break above the 21 ema zones on the 1 hour and 4 hour chart.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 7 – 9 April 2021:

EUR/USD, GBP/USD technical analysis: patterns, trends, key S&R levels

  • Explanation of potential trade ideas both up and down
  • Beginner friendly, explaining concepts in more detail

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Video

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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EUR/NZD Strong Bullish Momentum Aims at 1.70 Targets

The EUR/NZD made a strong bullish bounce at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The bullish breakout above the resistance trend lines (dotted orange) indicates more upside.

This article will review the EUR/NZD price patterns and targets, but also why this particular currency pair offers the best charting opportunities this week.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/NZD 7.4.2021 4 hour chart

The Euro seems posed to be one of the strongest currencies this week with impressive gains against the USD, GBP, and AUD while keeping in balance with the JPY.

On the other hand, the NZDis mostly on the losing end versus the USD and AUD. With EUR strength and NZD weakness, the EUR/NZD seems ready for more upside:

  1. The EUR/NZD chart itself seems to have completed an ABC (purple) correction at the 50% Fibonacci support level.
  2. The larger picture remains unclear, whether price action is building an ABC or 123 (red)… But in both wave scenarios, more upside seems likely.
  3. The strong breakout followed by a push above the Fractal resistance is confirming a push higher.
  4. The intermediate main target is the 610 ema followed by the WIzz 7 level. These levels could create a bull flag chart pattern (grey arrows).
  5. A bullish breakout above the flag patterns should send the pair higher. The main targets are located at 1.70, 1.71 and 1.7170.
  6. Price remains in an uptrend as long as it stays above the support zone (blue box). A break below the support trend line (green) indicates a deeper retracement (dotted orange lines) towards the 31.8% Fibonacci level.

On the 1 hour chart, the bears have lost control and the bulls seem posed to push price up higher soon:

  1. The divergence pattern between the lows (purple line) has confirmed a reversal.
  2. Price action has broken above the long-term moving averages.
  3. The price action is showing strong momentum to the upside.
  4. A corrective pattern respected the 38.2% Fibonacci level and bounced back up.
  5. The corrective pattern saw a bullish breakout.

The bulls could push immediately higher. This offers potential on intra-day or intra-week time frames for more upside.

Eventually a retracement is expected. A bull flag pattern (grey arrows) followed by a breakout could indicate more upside.

7.4.2021 EUR/NZD 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR//USD Bullish Momentum After Hitting 38.2% Fib at 1.17 Aims at 1.2250

The EUR/USD is building a bullish reversal at the 38.2% Fibonacci support level around 1.17. The bearish correction is therefore probably over.

This article reviews what price patterns and targets to expect.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 6.4.2021 daily chart

The EUR/USD bears pushed price action lower from a high at 1.2348 to a recent low around 1.17. But now bullish daily candlesticks have appeared at the 38.2% Fibonacci support level.

  1. The bullish bounce at the 38.2% Fib could confirm the wave 4 (purple) pattern mentioned before.
  2. Waves 4 are usually shoppy and lengthy so wave 4 (purple) is probably not completed as yet. A bearish ABC or ABCDE (pink) pattern will probably emerge.
  3. A bearish ABC (grey), however, does seem to complete the first wave A (pink).
  4. A bullish bounce (green arrows) is therefore likely to test the deep 88.6% Fibonacci level or previous top. A bullish ABC (grey) pattern is expected.
  5. A bearish bounce at the resistance (dotted orange arrows) could confirm the end of the wave B (pink).
  6. The wave 4 remains intact as long as price stays above the 50% Fib. A deeper pullback places it on hold (yellow circle) or invalidates it (red circle).

On the 1 hour chart, price action is already showing signs of reversal for a while, as mentioned in my EUR/USD and GBP/USD video analysis.

  1. The divergence pattern (purple) lines between price action and the oscillators on both the 1 and 4 hour charts indicated the need for a bullish retracement.
  2. A strong impulsive move up was seen after price hit the critical 38.2% Fib at the 1.17 support zone (daily chart).
  3. The bullish impulse was either a wave 1 or A and likely to see more upside.
  4. The bullish breakout above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) was a first indication that the downtrend was over…
  5. … But the 5 wave pattern (blue) that emerged indicates more upside as price action is building a larger wave 1 (orange).
  6. The wave 2 retracement (orange) respected the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the bullish uptrend channel (green lines).
  7. Price made a strong bounce up again, which is probably a wave 3 (orange).
  8. Price action is expected to either bounce (blue arrows) at the support zone (green box) or make an immediate bullish breakout (green arrows) towards the Fibonacci targets.
  9. Bull flag patterns could appear and breaks above those flags could confirm the uptrend continuation.

EUR/USD 6.4.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 5 – 6 Apr 2021

The EUR/USD is testing a key 21 ema support zone on the 4 hour chart. A bearish breakout could indicate a new lower low whereas a bounce gives a green light for a move up towards 1.1850. The GBP/USD is in a bullish wave C and bull flag patterns could confirm the push higher.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD has mixed signals on different time frames. The 4 hour chart could easily be in a wave 4 with more downside but the daily chart is showing bullish candles. In any case, the bearish divergence should create a push back towards the 144 ema eventually.

The GBP/USD bullish wave C is aiming for the target zones at 1.3950 and 1.4025.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 5 – 6 April 2021:

EUR/USD, GBP/USD technical analysis: patterns, trends, key S&R levels

  • Explanation of potential trade ideas both up and down
  • Beginner friendly, explaining concepts in more detail

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Video

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Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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S&P 500 Breaks Above $4,000 in Wave 3 of Wave 3

The S&P 500 (US500) uptrend remains strong. In fact, the recent price surge (blue arrow) might be the strongest push since the very start of the uptrend in March 2009.

How far can the bullish trend go? Let’s review the key targets and price patterns.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

S&P 500 5.4.2021 monthly chart

The S&P 500 bullish price swing has a very steep bullish angle (blue arrow). This is indicating very strong momentum. Will the uptrend last?

  1. The AO and ecs.MACD histogram bars are also showing no signs of weakening. In fact, the bars are reaching new highs, which is confirming the uptrend strength.
  2. Considering the strong momentum (blue arrow) and strong oscillator bars (point 1), the current push up is probably a wave 3 (purple) of wave 3 (red).
  3. This means that the uptrend is far from over and could push up substantially more before running out of steam.
  4. Price action has now reached the -27.2% Fibonacci target after bouncing at the 50% Fibonacci level during March 2020.
  5. The Fib target might create (but does not have) a bull flag chart pattern (grey arrow). If a bull flag does appear, then the breakout (green arrow) indicates and confirms an uptrend continuation.
  6. Price action should respect the 21 ema zone and previous top (blue box) if it wants to remain in bullish territory.
  7. The next targets are located at the round levels of $4250, $4500, $4750, and $5000.

On the daily chart, price action is expanding the wave 5 (pink) with an internal 5 waves. Currently price action seems to be in a wave 5 (orange) of wave 3 (grey):

  1. An immediate push higher (green arrow) after perhaps a light pullback (grey arrow) should aim at the -61.8% FIbonacci target near $4100.
  2. The wave 5 (green) could push as high as $4400-4500. Internal extensions might keep pushing price action higher.
  3. Eventually, an ABC pullback could take place at one of the target zones (orange arrows).
  4. As long as the pullback respects the support zone (green), then the retracement is likely a wave 4 (blue).
  5. After that, one more push up is expected to complete 3 (grey. Another wave 4 (grey) and wave 5 (grey) should complete the larger wave 5 (pink) of wave 3 (purple).

S&P 5.4.2021 daily chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter 

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin Awaits Breakout as Bulls Test $60k High Again

The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) uptrend is slowing down with corrective price action in the past few weeks. But another bullish bounce this week is challenging the previous top.

Will price action finally break the $60,000 resistance and continue for a new higher high?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

BTC/USD 2.4.2021 daily chart

The BTC/USD price patterns indicate that the uptrend is still active and far from completed. The choppy price action, however, does point to a wave 4 pattern. Let’s review the key decision zones:

  1. The resistance at the previous top is critical. A bullish breakout (green arrows) could confirm the immediate uptrend continuation.
  2. A bull flag pattern after that breakout is also key. A retest of the broken resistance and $60k level could take place via a flag pattern. A bullish bounce at the support zone would solidify the uptrend.
  3. The main bullish targets are the -27.2% and -61.8% Fibonacci levels at $65k and $70k for the moment.
  4. If price action breaks down or if price action shows a false bullish breakout with a weak daily candlestick, then a deeper retracement could take place. A break below the 21 ema (orange arrow) could indicate a retest of the previous bottom (blue box). A bounce is expected at the support (blue arrow).

On the 1 hour chart, price action seems to have completed a wave C (green) within wave 4 (blue) at the most recent lowest low:

  1. The quick impulsive bullish price swing is probably a wave 3.
  2. The corrective and choppy correction is usual for a wave 4.
  3. The wave 4 retracement respected the usual 38.2% Fibonacci level.
  4. A bullish breakout or bounce (green arrows) could indicate a bullish move.
  5. A break below the support line (green) means a retracement. The 38.2% Fib could hold and create a double bottom.
  6. A break below the 50% Fib indicates a deeper retracement.

BTC/USD 2.4.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter 

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Bullish Reversal Patterns Emerge at 1.17 Support Zone

The EUR/USD is testing a key 38.2% Fibonacci level on the daily chart. A bullish bounce did take place at the 23.6% Fib. Will the next Fib also act as support?

This article will review price patterns and the potential for a bullish reversal to take place.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 1.4.2021 daily chart

The EUR/USD seems to be completing a bearish ABC (grey) pattern at the 38.2% Fibonacci level (blue box). We expect the Fib to act as support and create a bullish move, either a small correction or a larger reversal:

  1. A bullish reversal (green arrows) could take place if price action is able to break above the 21 ema zone on the daily chart.
  2. The main upside targets are the deep Fibonacci retracement levels at the 78.6%, 88.6% and previous top. A bearish reversal back down is expected there due to the larger ABC (pink) pattern in wave 4 (purple).
  3. A strong bearish bounce at the 21 ema zone or an immediate breakout below the 38.2% Fib indicates more downside pressure (orange dotted arrows). In that case, price could decline towards the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels.
  4. The wave 4 pattern, however, becomes less likely if price action breaks below the 38.2% Fib. It could indicate a downtrend instead.

On the 1 hour chart, there are signs that a bullish reversal could take place. But of course, a reversal is always risky as the trend could be strong enough to continue. Here are the main factors:

  1. A divergence pattern (purple lines) is visible between the bottoms, which is indicating that the bears are losing steam.
  2. A potential inverted head and shoulders reversal chart pattern could emerge (green boxes). A break (green arrow) above the neck line and resistance (orange) is needed to confirm that reversal pattern.
  3. Price action has reached a strong support zone with the 38.2% Fib from the daily chart, the Wizz 7 level and the 1.11750 round level zone.
  4. Although price action has already closed above the 21 ema zone for the second time, a bullish breakout (green arrows) above the resistance (orange line) could confirm the reversal.
  5. The upside could either be an ABC or 123 pattern. This depends on how strong the price moves up. The main target for the wave C is the -61.8% Fib at 1.17944 and the wave 3 is at the -161.8% Fib target at 1.18950.

EUR/USD 1.4.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 31 Mar – 2 Apr 2021

The EUR/USD bearish breakout reached the main target zone at 1.17, which is where a strong bullish has occurred. How far can the bullish reversal go? The GBP/USD is also showing signs of a bullish reversal back up.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD bullish rebound is aiming at the Fibonacci targets at 1.1850 and 1.1950.

The GBP/USD is also expected to build a bullish price swing with targets at 1.3880 and 1.3950.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 31 Mar – 2 April 2021:

EUR/USD, GBP/USD technical analysis: patterns, trends, key S&R levels

  • Explanation of potential trade ideas both up and down
  • Beginner friendly, explaining concepts in more detail

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Video

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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FedEx Builds Bullish Channel After Bouncing at 38.2% Fibonacci

The FedEx corporation (FDX) made a strong bullish bounce at the 144 ema. Price has also broken above the 21 ema zone. Plus an uptrend channel is now established.

What are the main targets for this chart? And what kind of price patterns do we expect?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Fedex 31.03.2021 daily chart

The FDX daily chart had a strong impulse up. This has been labeled as wave 3 (pink). Let’s review what’s going right now:

  1. The current pullback completed at the 144 ema zone and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (green box).
  2. This retrace could either complete the wave 4 (pink) or be part of a larger ABC (grey) correction in wave 4’ (pink).
  3. In both cases price action is expected to reach the previous top at $305 (red line).
  4. A bearish bounce (orange arrow) could indicate a retest of the previous bottom within a larger wave 4’ (pink).
  5. A bull flag chart pattern (grey arrows), however, could indicate that the bulls remain in control and indicate a bullish breakout.
  6. The main target area is the previous top at $305. A break above the top should aim at the -27.2% Fib target at $350 followed by the -61.8% Fib target at $400. Although the first Fib target zone at $350 could start another wave 4 pattern.

On the 4 hour chart, price action seems to have completed 5 waves up (blue) and then followed by an ABC correction (blue). This could be part of a wave 1-2 or a-b.

  1. The continuous higher highs and higher lows confirms an uptrend channel.
  2. Any pullback towards the previous candle highs and 21 ema zone should create support (green arrows) at around $280.
  3. A deeper pullback places the uptrend scenario on hold (yellow/red circles).
  4. Price is not expected to decline below $264 or otherwise the uptrend is in trouble.

Fedex 31.03.2021 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.