Weekly Waves 17 Jan: Ethereum, GBP/USD, and Gold

Weekly Waves 17 Jan: Ethereum, GBP/USD, and Gold

Our analysis indicates a bearish ABC correction on the GBP/USD, a potential 5 waves down on ETH/USD, and a slow wave 4 pattern on XAU/USD.

ETH/USD Downtrend Must Respect Shallow Fibs

ETH chart, 17.01.22

The Ethereum (ETH/USD) crypto currency pair is in a downtrend after breaking below the support trend lines (dotted green):

  1. Price action could be moving down lower in 5 waves (pink). But price action should respect the shallow Fibonacci levels (red box) and resistance trend line (red).
  2. A break above these Fib levels place the bearish analysis on hold. A bearish bounce and continuation lower, however, could confirm the 5 wave pattern in wave A (grey).
  3. The main targets of the bearish swing are the -27.2% and -61.8% Fibonacci targets.
  4. In any case, a larger ABC (grey) pattern seems to be taking place in a wave 4 (yellow) correction.

GBP/USD Strength Expected to Face Opposition

GBP/USD chart, 170122

The GBP/USD is showing a strong bullish impulse, which was able to break above the resistance trend line (red) of the downtrend:

  1. The bulls however are facing a strong resistance zone from the previous top (red box). A bearish bounce is likely to occur here (orange arrows).
  2. A bearish ABC (blue) pattern could emerge at the resistance to create a pullback. But this could simply complete a wave B (pink) within a larger ABC (pink) pattern.
  3. The blue box could indicate an inverted head and shoulders pattern. A deeper bearish retracement would place the bullish ABC on hold or invalidate it. A stronger push up above the resistance (red box) however still will indicate a wave A (pink) most likely.

XAU/USD Bullish Chart Pattern

Gold is moving sideways after a strong impulsive move up:

  1. A bullish break above (green arrow) the resistance (red) trend line could indicate an uptrend continuation. But if the current Elliott Wave analysis is correct, then the previous top should stop the uptrend.
  2. A bearish bounce (orange arrow) could complete the ABC (blue) in wave B (pink) and send price back down to the previous bottom.
  3. A bullish bounce (green arrow) at the previous bottom could complete the ABC (pink) pattern within wave 4 (yellow) and restart the uptrend.
  4. A deeper retracement below the previous bottom places the uptrend on hold or invalidates it.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

Weekly Waves Jan 10: US30 Final Wedge Plus EUR/USD & Bitcoin

The financial markets are heading towards a climax. According to our Elliott Wave analysis, the EUR/USD, BTC/USD and US30 daily charts are reaching a final decision moment.

Bitcoin Shows 5 Wave Down

10.01.22 Waves BTC/USD

The BTC/USD (Bitcoin vs US Dollar) daily chart has broken below the key support trend lines (dotted green):

  1. The bears have been moving lower in a neat downtrend channel (orange lines).
  2. The price action has been clearly impulsive and is showing a 5 wave pattern (pink). This is probably part of a larger wave A (grey) of an ABC pattern (grey).
  3. Another push lower could occur within the wave A (grey). A break above the channel indicates the end of the wave A (grey) and the start of an ABC pattern within wave B (grey).
  4. An ABC (pink) rally (green arrows) up into resistance is then expected before price turns around and retraces downward again in a wave C (grey).

EUR/USD Remains Stuck in Bear Flag

The EUR/USD remains in the bear flag chart pattern. Price action remains below the critical 50% Fibonacci retracement resistance level and in between the support line (green) and resistance line (orange):

  1. The EUR/USD remains in the bear flag as long as price action stays below the 50% Fibonacci level. A break above it places the bearish analysis on hold (orange pauze circle). A deep push up invalidates (red circle) the wave 4 (pink).
  2. A breakout below the support trend line (green) should confirm the downtrend continuation towards the next round level at 1.10.

US30 Ending Diagonal?

The US30 (DJI) daily chart remains in an uptrend. But the higher highs are showing lower momentum. The uptrend seems to be running out of steam:

  1. The weaker higher highs indicate a potential rising wedge reversal chart pattern. The uptrend is still alive but certainly weaker. The Elliott Wave patterns suggest a final wave 5 (grey).
  2. Within the wave 5 (pink), there seems to be an ending diagonal pattern (blue wave 5). The wave 3 (blue) is shorter than wave 1 (blue) and wave 5 (blue) should be the shortest.
  3. If price action respects the resistance trend line (orange), then a head and shoulders pattern followed a by strong move lower (red arrows) should confirm a bearish retracement or reversal.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

Weekly Waves: Bitcoin Bearish Reversal Plus EUR/USD & GBP/AUD Daily Charts

The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) weekly chart is showing a potential bearish reversal. The uptrend could be completed after 5 bullish waves up.

We also review the EUR/USD downtrend and GBP/AUD triangle pattern on the daily charts.

Bitcoin Bearish Momentum vs Uptrend

The BTC/USD chart remains in an uptrend but the bearish pressure is placing it under severe pressure. The higher high was quickly followed by a fast decline:

04.01.22 waves BTCUSD
  1. A 5 wave (pink) pattern seems to be completed. There is also a clear 5 wave pattern (blue) in the final 5th wave (pink).
  2. Price made a higher high but the bulls were unable to hold ground. The quick bearish decline showed a lot of bearish momentum. The bearish drop could be a wave A (blue).
  3. A new lower low is expected (orange arrow) to test the support zone (green) first. A bullish bounce (green arrow) could test the resistance zone (orange).
  4. A bearish bounce at the resistance would confirm that the uptrend is indeed over.
  5. A larger, complex bearish correction could take place via a WXY (pink) pattern. In case, the uptrend continues, then it is likely that a triangle pattern will emerge first.

EUR/USD Downtrend Continuation

The EUR/USD downtrend is strong. The resistance trend line (orange) indicates how long the bears have been in control:

04.01.22 waves EURUSD
  1. The current decline is a bearish impulsive wave. There seem to be 5 waves (grey) developing at the moment.
  2. The current pullback is probably a bear flag (purple lines) within the wave 4 (blue). This is invalid if the retracement breaks above the 78.6% Fibonacci level. A break below (orange arrow) the flag confirms the downtrend continuation.
  3. The main target for the downtrend is the round level of 1.10.
  4. The downtrend could be part of a wave 5 (blue) of wave 3 (pink) of wave 5 (grey).

GBP/AUD In Consolidation

The GBP/AUD chart is showing an uptrend with support trend lines (purple) below the current price:

04.01.22 waves GBPAUD
  1. After 5 waves up (pink), price is making a consolidation. The correction could be an ABCDE (pink) pattern.
  2. The current outlook remains valid if price action stays above the bottoms.
  3. A break above the resistance trend line could spark a bullish breakout and rally.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 20 – 24 Dec 2021

The EUR/USD is testing the support zone. A bearish breakout below 1.1220 should send the currency pair back into a full downtrend. The GBP/USD bearish rejection at the 21 ema on the daily chart looks strong. A bearish continuation is expected.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD bearish breakout is expected to have a target at the 1.10 round level and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

The GBP/USD bearish target is aiming at the round level of 1.30 and the next Fib at 1.2825.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 20 – 24 Dec 2021:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 13 – 17 Dec 2021

The EUR/USD could build a bullish retracement towards 1.14 or 1.15 but the downtrend remains the main expected trade of the month. The GBP/USD is also awaiting a downtrend continuation after the bullish correction is finished.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD needs a bearish breakout candle or bearish bounce at resistance for the downtrend continuation. The main target for the downtrend is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.10.

The GBP/USD main target is aiming at 1.30 and 1.2850 targets.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 13 – 17 Dec 2021:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 5 – 10 Dec 2021

The EUR/USD is building a bullish retracement but price action is expected to continue with the downtrend with main targets at 1.10 and 1.09. The GBP/USD is aiming at the next 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3150-30.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD remains in a very strong downtrend, although a mild pullback towards 1.14-1.1450 is expected.

The GBP/USD could make a bullish retracement after hitting 1.3150. But also the Cable should make a bearish push lower towards 1.30 and 1.28.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 5 – 10 Dec 2021:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 22 – 26 Nov 2021

The EUR/USD made a bullish retracement at 1.12 but remains in a very strong downtrend. The main trades are focused on the expected bearish movement. The GBP/USD is testing the bottom of the downtrend channel, which could create a bullish correction.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD should resume the downtrend after making a bullish ABC correction. The main target for the downtrend is at 1.10 support.

The GBP/USD should also build a bullish ABC pattern and then decline towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3150.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2021:

Good trading,

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Chris Svorcik
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 22 – 26 Nov 2021

The EUR/USD is testing the 1.1250 support zone after showing strong bearish momentum. The GBP/USD is at the bottom of the downtrend channel but could be weak enough to break below it.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD needs a breakout below the 1.1250 support or a retest of the resistance at 1.1375 for bearish trade setups.

The GBP/USD is looking for a bearish breakout and aims at targets near 1.3325, 1.3250, and 1.3150.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 22 – 26 Nov 2021:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 15 – 19 Nov 2021

The EUR/USD made a strong bearish breakout. A downtrend continuation is soon expected. The GBP/USD is building a bullish retracement within a larger downtrend. An immediate continuation is possible below the 1.35 resistance level.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD could make a retracement back to the 1.15 resistance level, which would be a strong zone for a downtrend continuation. A bearish breakout below the support zone could see an immediate breakout.

The GBP/USD targets are aiming at 1.33250, 1.3250, 1.3175, and 1.30.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 15 – 19 Nov 2021:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 8 – 13 Nov 2021

The EUR/USD made a bearish price swing but was unable to break and close below 1.15 support. A bullish retracement now seems likely. The GBP/USD bearish impulse made a Doji candlestick pattern at the previous bottom and is also expected to retrace upward.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD could be aiming at a target around 1.1750-1.18, which is the next key decision zone.

The GBP/USD will probably aim for the resistance trend line at 1.3750.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 8 – 12 Nov 2021:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 1 – 5 Nov 2021

The EUR/USD is showing strong bearish momentum but price action was unable to break the bottom. The bears will need to see a push below the 50% Fibonacci level whereas the bulls need a break above 1.1625. The GBP/USD made a bearish swing but price action is approaching the inverted head and shoulders pattern.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you could ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD will need a clear break before the next trend is confirmed. A break above 1.1625 indicates a bullish reversal whereas a break below 1.1525 confirms the downtrend.

The GBP/USD is approaching a key support zone at 1.3575-1.36. A bullish bounce could indicate a rally towards the trend line. A break below the 1.34 support indicates a strong downtrend.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 1 – 5 Nov 2021:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 26 – 29 Oct 2021

The EUR/USD is showing a bullish divergence and time pattern on the daily chart. A break above the 21 and 144 emas would confirm a bullish reversal. The GBP/USD also needs a break above the 21 ema zone on the 4 hour chart for an uptrend continuation.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD daily chart target is the 144 ema around 1.175-.1.18. Whether the price action could go higher depends on the reaction at this 144 ema zone. A bullish confirmation could take place on the 4 hour chart with a close above the 21 emas.

The GBP/USD is aiming at the targets around 1.3930, 1.40, and 1.4070. An uptrend continuation should reach these Fibonacci and round levels if the momentum is strong enough.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 26 – 29 Oct 2021:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 19 – 22 Oct 2021

The EUR/USD made a bullish bounce and break above the 21 ema zone on the 4-hour chart. Price is now testing a key break or bounce spot at the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level. The GBP/USD also made a bullish bounce at the 21 ema and 144 ema support zone. More upside seems likely to test the targets.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD price pattern at the Fibonacci resistance will be a key aspect to determine the next price swing. A bull flag indicates more uptrend continuation whereas a sharp bearish momentum indicates a downtrend.

The GBP/USD is breaking above a daily resistance trend line with multiple targets from 1.3875 to 1.40.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 19 – 22 Oct 2021:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 18 – 22 Oct 2021

The EUR/USD made a bullish retracement after the downtrend became exhausted on the 4 hour chart. Price action is now approaching a key decision for a bullish or bearish break. The GBP/USD made a strong upside swing and is now testing a confluence of support.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD needs to break below the 50% Fibonacci support of the weekly chart for a downtrend continuation. A bullish breakout above the 50% Fib resistance of the 4 hour chart, however, could indicate the bullish reversal.

The GBP/USD remains in an uptrend as long as price action stays above the support trend line and long-term moving averages. A break below it indicates a bearish price swing to test the previous bottom.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 18 – 22 Oct 2021:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 11 – 15 Oct 2021

The EUR/USD breaking below the bear flag pattern with a small target at the 1.15 support zone. The GBP/USD is showing a potential bearish reversal due to the strong candlestick patterns at the -0.618% Fibonacci targets.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD is in a strong downtrend channel but price action is now testing a key support zone at the 50% Fibonacci level.

The GBP/USD is expected to build a contracting triangle pattern or sideways range.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 11 – 15 Oct 2021:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 4 – 8 Oct 2021

The EUR/USD is building a small bullish pullback in a larger downtrend. The main target is the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.15-1.1540. The GBP/USD should make a bearish bounce as well, despite the strong bullish close and reverse.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD long-term direction depends on the price reaction at the 50% Fibonacci support level and 144 ema of the weekly chart.

The GBP/USD long-term direction depends on how strong price action falls once it makes a bearish bounce.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 4 – 8 Oct 2021:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 29 Sep – 1 Oct 2021

The EUR/USD invalidated the bullish outlook by breaking below the bottom. A bearish impulse is now expected to aim at the targets around 1.16 and 1.15. The GBP/USD also made a bearish breakout and has reached the first target at 1.35.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD is moving lower as part of a bearish wave 3 or wave C. The main target is the 50% Fibonacci level on the weekly chart around 1.15-1.1550.

The GBP/USD is expected to make a bullish pullback first before moving down lower once again. A descending wedge pattern has been broken with a strong bearish daily candle and one more move lower could take place at 1.375-1.36.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 29 Sep – 1 Oct 2021:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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Bitcoin Trapped Between Crucial Support & Resistance Zones

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has arrived at a critical decision zone. Will price action respect the 144 ema support on the daily chart?

Let’s review the two most realistic scenarios for the BTC/USD in the near future on the daily and 4 hour charts.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Bitcoin daily chart

The BTC/USD seems to be trending lower but the price action has been slow and choppy so far. Price action also made a bullish bounce at the 144 ema:

  1. A bullish breakout above the 21 ema zone could confirm an uptrend continuation.
  2. The main target is the resistance box (red) and -27.2% Fibonacci target.
  3. This could complete either a bullish ABC or be part of a larger 12345 wave pattern. This depends on whether price action bounces at or breaks above the top.
  4. If price action, however, breaks below the support line (green) and 144 ema, then a deeper bearish pullback (orange arrow) is expected.
  5. A contracting triangle chart pattern could take place via an ABCDE (pink).
  6. A bullish bounce and breakout (green arrows) is expected later on.

On the 4 hour chart, price action is in a downtrend channel but also facing a strong support zone:

  1. The breakout is key for determining the next price swing.
  2. A break, pullback and continuation pattern would help determine whether the breakout is not a false break.
  3. A bullish breakout (green arrows) is needed above the resistance trend line (orange) and moving averages.
  4. A bearish breakout (orange arrows) is needed below the support trend lines (green).

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 27 – 28 Sep 2021

The EUR/USD is testing key support and resistance trend lines. A bearish breakout could see a decline towards 1.1580 whereas a bullish breakout aims at the double top near 1.19. The GBP/USD made a triple bottom and is expected to build a bullish ABC pattern.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD bearish momentum, however, favours a bearish breakout. But price action must break below the bottom and support zone first.

The GBP/USD bullish bounce is aiming at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and resistance trend line of the descending wedge chart pattern.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 27 – 28 September 2021:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis & Setups 22 – 24 Sep 2021

The EUR/USD is testing a key 21 ema resistance zone on the 4 hour chart. A bullish breakout could start a larger reversal whereas a bearish bounce could test the previous bottom. The GBP/USD is expected to test the bottom again and build a descending wedge pattern.

If you think our videos, analysis, and education can help you become a better trader, then you can ask your own questions via our form and we will answer them in the weekly live webinar every Tuesday.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Overview

The EUR/USD is in a downtrend channel but price action could be completing an ABC pattern as long as daily candlestick does not break below the bottom.

The GBP/USD is expected to decline below the 88.6% Fibonacci and test the double bottom.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 22 – 24 September 2021:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik
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