Weekly Waves 26 September: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Bitcoin

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD 1 hour chart, the GBP/USD 1 hour chart, and the Bitcoin crypto currency daily chart.

EUR/USD Bearish Impulse Takes a Small Break

The EUR/USD almost reached 0.95 in early trading this morning:

  1. The EUR/USD could have completed wave 5 (green) of wave 3 (orange).
  2. The strong bullish bounce once price action reached the strong support at the 0.95 round level probably is a wave A (green) retracement.
  3. Price action could face difficulties to move much higher. The Fibonacci retracement levels should act as a strong resistance.
  4. A bearish reaction at the Fibonacci levels could confirm the end of wave A and the start of wave B (green).
  5. A larger ABC (green) pattern would fit within an expected wave 4 (orange).
  6. A downtrend is expected to resume and take price action at 0.94 and 0.9250 within wave 5 (orange) of waves 3.
Euro 1 hour chart

GBP/USD Crashes 550 Pips in Early Trading

The GBP/USD made a huge drop from 1.0850 down to 1.03 earlier this morning:

  1. The GBP/USD 550 pip decline this morning seems to be part of an impulsive wave 3 (yellow).
  2. The strong bullish push upwards after the decline is expected to be a wave A (orange) of a larger ABC (orange) within a wave 4 (yellow).
  3. The Fibonacci levels are expected to be a resistance zone.
  4. A break above the 50% Fibonacci level makes it less likely that the current Elliott Wave analysis – indicating a wave 3 and 4 (yellow) – is correct.
  5. A bullish ABC (orange) is expected within the wave 4 (yellow).
  6. A downtrend continuation should aim at parity (1.00).
British Pound 1 hour chart

BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is unable to break through the previous bottom (green lines):

  1. The BTC/USD is at an important decision zone: a bearish breakout confirms the downtrend (red arrows).
  2. A bullish bounce (blue arrows) could indicate a larger wave C (orange C’) towards the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci resistance zone.
  3. A break above the 38.2-50% Fibonacci levels could indicate that the wave 5 (yellow) of wave C (pink) has been completed.
  4. A bearish bounce at the Fibonacci resistance levels should signal the end of the wave 4 (yellow).
  5. A downtrend continuation aims at $15k and $12.5k within wave C (pink).
Bitcoin daily chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 19 September: GBP/USD, Gas and Bitcoin

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the GBP/USD 4 hour chart, the Gas 4 hour chart, and the Bitcoin crypto currency weekly chart.

GBP/USD Bears Take Control and Break Bottom

The GBP/USD made a bullish retracement to and bearish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level:

  1. The GBP/USD bounce at the 38.2% Fib indicates a wave 4 (pink) pattern.
  2. Price action has now broken below the bottom after a strong bearish decline, which has been labeled as a wave 1 (yellow).
  3. Price action is expected to continue with its downtrend (red arrows) as part of a wave 3 (yellow).
  4. The main targets are the Fibonacci levels at 1.1325, 1.1250, and 1.1175.
  5. Eventually a shallow retracement is expected to occur within wave 4 (yellow).
  6. The retracement should not break above the previous bottoms and resistance zones (red boxes).
  7. A further decline is then expected within wave 5 (yellow).
  8. A bullish push above the resistance levels makes it likely that another wave pattern is valid.
British Pound 4 hour chart

NGAS Head and Shoulders Pattern Indicates Reversal

The NGAS 4 hour chart is showing a reversal chart pattern:

  1. The NGAS chart offers a classical head and shoulders reversal chart pattern (orange boxes).
  2. The bullish push up within wave B/2 stopped at the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
  3. The bearish decline after the bearish bounce has been very strong and is likely some type of wave 3 (yellow).
  4. A mild retracement within the wave 4 (yellow) could take price eventually back to the 23.6% or 38.2% Fibonacci levels.
  5. A deeper bullish retracement invalidates the wave 4 (yellow) pattern.
  6. A bearish continuation aims for the Fibonacci targets down below.
  7. If price action only reaches the -27.2% Fibonacci target, then it’s most likely a wave C ([pink). If price action goes to the -61.8% Fib, then it could be either a wave 3 or C.
  8. A break below the -61.8% Fibonacci level indicates a wave 3 (pink).
Natural Gas 4 hour chart

BTC/USD Breaks Low and Prepares for Decline

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is breaking the bottom and low for a continuation of the downtrend:

  1. The BTC/USD bulls are disappointed yet again after a bullish rally was unable to break above the resistance zone.
  2. The break of the bottom should complete the bullish, shallow wave 4 (yellow) and start the bearish wave 5 (yellow).
  3. The main target is the -27.2% Fibonacci target around $12k with an important zone around the round level of $15k.
  4. The wave 5 (yellow) could move lower within a falling wedge reversal chart pattern (orange lines).
  5. A strong bullish bounce is needed to confirm the start of any reversal (blue arrows)
  6. The wave 5 (yellow) would complete a wave C (pink) of wave W (pink) or wave 2 (gray).
Bitcoin weekly chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 12 September: EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Bitcoin

EUR/USD Bullish Reversal After Strong Weekly Candle

The EUR/USD is showing a strong bullish weekly candlestick, which is expected to start a bullish correction

  1. The EUR/USD is building a bearish wave 3 (gray) impulse.
  2. However, the bullish weekly candle is expected to signal the end of wave 3.
  3. The strong bullish weekly candle looks like a strong reversal candle with a lower low but also a higher high and a close near the high, indicating buying pressure as last week closed.
  4. A break above the resistance zone (red box) and last week’s high should start a bullish impulse higher.
  5. This could start a wave A (pink) within a larger ABC (pink) correction of wave 4 (gray).
  6. The 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels are expected to act and hold as resistance. A break above the 38.2/50% Fib zones could indicate a different wave pattern.
Euro weekly chart

USD/JPY Bullish Bounce at 38.2% Fibonacci Level

The USD/JPY uptrend has been extremely strong since March 2022 with a price movement from 114 to 145 in a matter of months:

  1. The USD/JPY bullish impulse is very strong and is therefore expected to be a wave 3 (pink) of larger wave 3(s).
  2. Within the wave 3 (pink), there is an internal 5 wave pattern (yellow).
  3. This wave 4 (yellow) remains valid as long as price action respects the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels.
  4. The maximum retracement should be the support zone (blue box).
  5. A break below the support zone indicates a potentially different Elliott Wave pattern.
  6. The main bullish targets are 147.50 and 150.
USD/JPY 4 hour chart

BTC/USD Bullish Retracement Faces Hefty Resistance Zones

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) made a strong bullish bounce at the previous bottom:

  1. The BTC/USD bullish rally at the previous bottom is in our analysis a wave B (orange) of a larger ABC (orange) in wave 4 (yellow).
  2. The wave 4 (yellow) of a larger wave 5 (pink) of wave C (gray) remains valid as long as price action respects the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci resistance levels.
  3. A bearish continuation lower should aim at targets around $17.5k, $15k and perhaps as low as $10k.
  4. A break above the 50% Fibonacci level indicates that the wave B (orange) could have been wave 5 instead.
  5. This is certainly the case if price action breaks above 78.6% Fibonacci level, which means the end of the downtrend and wave C (gray).
Bitcoin daily chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 5 September: EUR/USD, Gold and Bitcoin

EUR/USD New Low Aims at 0.9750 Target

The EUR/USD made a new low again after a shallow bullish correction:

  1. The EUR/USD made a bearish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
  2. The break below the previous bottom could either be part of a complex wave 4 (yellow) or part of the downtrend within wave 5 (yellow).
  3. We prefer the wave 5 scenario and expect price action to make a bearish bounce at the resistance trend line (orange) and/or break the bottom and a new lower low.
  4. The main target zone is the support area around 0.9750-0.98.
  5. A break above the resistance trend line (orange) would however change the perspective and indicate the end of the downtrend.
  6. A stronger bullish retracement could emerge within wave 4 (gray) after price action completes wave 5 (yellow) of wave 5 (pink) of wave 3 (gray).
Euro 4 hour chart

Gold Testing Key 38.2% Fibonacci Support

Gold (XAU/USD) is testing the support zone (blue box) and Fibonacci retracement levels:

  1. The XAU/USD seems to be completing a wave 5 (green) of a larger ABC (yellow) correction in wave 4 (pink).
  2. The 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci support levels should remain unbroken if indeed this Elliott Wave analysis is correct and price action is within a wave 4 (pink).
  3. A break below the 50% Fibonacci is a first warning that the current bullish Elliott Wave analysis is incorrect whereas a move towards the 78.6% Fib invalidates it.
  4. A bullish recovery, however, could develop slowly with a momentum upwards (blue arrow) followed by a deep bearish retracement (red arrow).
  5. Price action might only break for a new higher high in 2023. First price action will need to test the double top and then after a berish bounce, price action could push above it.
Gold weekly chart

BTC/USD Price Action Too Bearish for Any Reversal

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) analysis from last week seems unlikely at the moment because of the bearish momentum and lengthy and shallow bullish price movement:

  1. BTC/USD needs a break above (blue arrow) the resistance trend lines (orange) and 50% Fibonacci level before the bulls can be optimistic about any kind of rally.
  2. Even though price action could make a bullish bounce at the previous bottom, the price action looks too bearish for any rally to succeed at this moment.
  3. Therefore, we decided to change the Elliott Wave analysis this week to provide a fresh and new perspective.
  4. The bullish correction was probably a wave 4 (orange) within a downtrend, rather than a wave A (or a larger ABC up).
  5. The current bearish swing is expected to be a wave 5 (orange).
  6. A break below (red arrows) the previous low would confirm the wave 5 (orange).
  7. The main bearish targets are $15k and $10k.
  8. A bullish rebound (blue arrows) is expected at one of these targets.
Bitcoin daily chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 30 August: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Bitcoin

EUR/USD Retracement Towards 1.05 and 1.08

The EUR/USD made a new low but price action was finally weaker, which is a first indication that a larger bullish retracement could take place:

  1. The EUR/USD bullish divergence has appeared between the two recent daily bottoms (green lines on price chart and MACD).
  2. The divergence pattern indicates a potential bullish reversal or retracement.
  3. Because price action is probably in wave 3 (gray), we expect a shallow and choppy correction within wave 4 (gray) and not a larger reversal.
  4. An ABC (yellow) pattern could unfold within a larger wave A (pink) of wave 4 (gray).
  5. The bullish targets are the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.0450 and 38.2% Fib near 1.08 of the wave 4 (gray).
  6. The downtrend within wave 5 (gray) could aim at 0.9750, 0.95, and 0.925.
Euro daily chart

GBP/USD Bullish Pullback to 1.2250

The GBP/USD is showing a massive bearish impulse but a strong support zone (blue) is now in its way:

  1. The GBP/USD is expected to build a bullish retracement, just like the EUR/USD.
  2. Considering the strong bearish momentum, we estimate that price action is probably in a wave 3 (orange).
  3. This remains valid as long as the bullish retracement is not very impulsive and does not break above 1.25 and especially above 1.28 and 1.30.
  4. A bullish ABC (green) is expected to complete the wave 4 (orange) around 1.2250.
  5. The downtrend within wave 5 (orange) of wave 3 (yellow) could take price to 1.15 and perhaps 1.14 and 1.1250.
British Pound weekly chart

BTC/USD Bullish Bounce Aims at $30k

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is testing the previous bottom and the main question will be whether price action will bounce or break:

  1. BTC/USD is expected to make a bullish bounce according to our Elliott Wave analysis.
  2. The current bearish price action is probably a wave B (orange).
  3. This means that a bullish bounce should take price higher within a wave C (orange).
  4. A larger ABC (orange) should complete a larger wave W (yellow) of a WXY complex correction (yellow).
  5. The main bullish target is the 23.6% Fibonacci level around $30k.
  6. A bearish bounce is expected at this strong resistance zone (red box).
  7. After a bearish retracement in wave X (yellow), a bullish bounce should take price up towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level in a wave Y (yellow).
Bitcoin daily chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 22 August: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Bitcoin

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD monthly chart, the GBP/USD 4 hour chart, and the Bitcoin crypto currency weekly chart.

EUR/USD Testing Key Support Zone at 0.9750

The EUR/USD is testing again the key parity (1.00) level:

  1. The EUR/USD is expected to decline further but a larger support zone and 78.6% Fibonacci level (blue box) could stop the downtrend around 0.9750.
  2. A bullish reaction at the support zone could indicate a larger bullish correction within the wave 4 (pink).
  3. The bullish rebound could take price back up the 23.6% and 38.2 Fibonacci retracement levels plus resistance trend line.
  4. Eventually a bearish continuation is expected towards the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level and -27.2% Fibonacci target.
  5. A bearish breakout below the support 0.9750 indicates an immediate continuation lower.
Euro monthly chart

GBP/USD Testing Critical Bottom and Support

The GBP/USD is testing the previous bottom:

  1. The GBP/USD is testing a key support zone (green box).
  2. A bullish breakout above the resistance zone (orange) could indicate a rally (blue arrows) towards the previous top (orange box).
  3. In that case, price action is probably building an ABC (green) pattern in wave 4 (orange).
  4. A bearish breakout (red arrows) below the support (green box) could indicate an immediate downtrend towards 1.16 and 1.15.
  5. In that case, price action is probably building a wave 123 (white) impulse.
British Pound 4 hour chart

BTC/USD Wave Patterns Indicate Consolidation

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is building a bullish retracement but price action is struggling to find any substantial move up:

  1. BTC/USD bearish breakout below the previous bottom (red arrows) indicates a downtrend continuation towards targets at $15k and $12.5k.
  2. A bullish bounce at or above the previous bottom could indicate a sideways movement.
  3. Price action could retrace upwards as high as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level but ultimately remain in a downtrend.
  4. Eventually one more lower low is possible to complete a wave C (yellow) or finish a wave Y (pink).
  5. A break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level indicates a larger ABC (yellow) within wave Y (pink).
Bitcoin weekly chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 15 August: EUR/USD, US30 and Bitcoin

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD 4 hour chart, the US30 (DJI) weekly chart, and the Bitcoin crypto currency 4 hour chart.

EUR/USD Bearish ABC in Larger Bullish Correction

The EUR/USD is showing a strong bearish decline at the moment. Let’s review the Elliott Wave patterns to understand why price action made such a strong reversal:

  1. The EUR/USD bullish price action was labeled as a bullish correction so the choppy and weak uptrend is what we expected.
  2. The bullish price action seems to have completed an ABC (yellow) pattern.
  3. The bullish correction, however, could still be alive because we believe that a larger WXY (pink) is taking place in wave 4 (gray).
  4. Non-technical reasons to expect a longer correction include the fact that August is usually a choppy month, the slight pause in inflation (from month to month perspective), and decrease of the year on year inflation rate last month.
  5. Therefore we now expect a wave X (pink). To confirm this Elliott Wave pattern, we should see an ABC (yellow) wave within wave X (pink).
  6. A bullish bounce could take place at the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
  7. The bullish bounce could take price up to the head and shoulders level (orange boxes).
  8. A bearish bounce at the resistance could see price decline to challenge the deeper Fibonacci support levels and most likely, we should see a bullish reversal at those support zones.
EUR/USD 4 hour chart

US30 Rally Expected to Reverse at Resistance

The US30 weekly chart is showing bullish price action but the rally looks like a rise before yet another decline:

  1. The US30 chart could have some space for a small rally.
  2. Although price action has reached the 50% Fibonacci level, price action could rise as high as the head and shoulders level (orange boxes).
  3. A bearish bounce is expected at this resistance zone. A break above it would probably change the bearish perspective.
  4. A bearish breakout (red arrows) below the support (green lines) could indicate that the rally is finished.
  5. A larger bullish ABC (yellow) pattern should complete wave X (gray).
  6. A bearish ABC (yellow) should then take price action down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of a larger wave 4 (gray).
  7. A larger complex correction could emerge so that wave Y (gray) completes a larger wave X of the wave 4.
  8. Eventually, once the bearish correction completes waves 4 (pink), a new uptrend could emerge in wave 5 as long as price action remains above the 50%.
  9. A break below the 38.2% and especially the 50% Fibonacci retracement level indicates a strong downtrend.
Dow Jones weekly chart

BTC/USD Should Rally after ABC Down

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is building a rising wedge reversal pattern:

  1. BTC/USD rising wedge is indicating the end of the bullish rally, unless price action manages to break above the resistance trend lines (orange).
  2. A bullish breakout would in that case start a potential rally (dotted blue arrows) towards 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
  3. A breakout below the support lines (green) could start a bearish correction lower (red arrows).
  4. A larger ABC (green) pattern has probably completed wave Y (yellow) of wave W (pink).
  5. Now an ABC (yellow) is expected to unfold in wave X (pink).
  6. Once the wave X (pink) is completed, a new bullish rally should take price up again within wave Y (pink) of wave B (gray).
Bitcoin 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 8 August: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Bitcoin

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD daily chart, the GBP/USD daily chart, and the Bitcoin crypto currency daily chart.

EUR/USD Bullish Breakout Expected for Push to 1.05

The EUR/USD is building a contracting triangle chart pattern. Let’s review what to expect with the next price swing:

  1. The EUR/USD seems to be building a sideways consolidation after price action showed a strong bullish impulsive with 3 bullish daily candles.
  2. The bullish momentum is probably a wave A (yellow) and the sideways triangle pattern is expected to be a wave B (yellow).
  3. Usually these patterns show a bullish breakout (blue arrow) to complete wave B and start wave C (yellow).
  4. However, a bearish breakout does not invalidate the wave B (yellow) as long as price action stays above the Fibonacci retracement levels of wave A.
  5. The main target for the wave C is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.05.
  6. A breakout above the resistance line could indicate the start of the wave C (yellow).
  7. A bearish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level could complete the ABC (yellow) within wave W (pink).
  8. A larger WXY (pink) correction could occur within wave 4 (gray) as long as the shallow resistance Fibs are respected.
EUR/USD daily chart

GBP/USD Bearish ABC towards 1.19-1.20

The GBP/USD is building a bearish retracement but a key support zone is nearby:

  1. The GBP/USD also seems to be building an ABC (yellow) pattern.
  2. The wave B (yellow) could make a deeper retracement towards the inverted head and shoulders support level (purple).
  3. A bullish bounce could aim at the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level near 1.25.
  4. The ABC (yellow) could complete a wave W (pink) of a larger WXY (pink) in wave 4 (gray).
  5. A bearish ABC bounce could emerge within wave X (pink) at the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
British Pound daily chart

BTC/USD Breaking Above Key Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) seems to be building an uptrend after creating several higher highs and higher lows:

  1. BTC/USD has broken above the daily highs of the past several days.
  2. The bullish breakout could indicate a bullish continuation after BTC/USD already managed to show several higher highs and higher lows.
  3. The main target of the 5 wave pattern (yellow) within a larger ABC (pink) pattern is at the 30k price level near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
  4. A break below the bottoms would invalidate the bullish reversal.
  5. A larger WXY (blue) complex correction could take place within the expected wave B (gray) correction.
Bitcoin daily chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 1 August: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Bitcoin

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD daily chart, the GBP/USD daily chart, and the Bitcoin crypto currency weekly chart.

EUR/USD Bullish Correction Aims at 1.05

The EUR/USD is breaking above the previous daily highs. Let’s review that to expect next:

  1. The EUR/USD bullish breakout is occurring after price action has made a higher low.
  2. The larger bearish 3 wave pattern is probably an ABC (yellow) zigzag of a larger WXY correction (gray).
  3. The WXY (gray) should fit within a complex wave 4 pattern (pink).
  4. The wave 4 (pink) is the main Elliott Wave analysis as long as price action respects the Fibonacci resistance levels and ideally stays below the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
  5. Waves 4 are usually complex, lengthy and shallow corrections so a strong bearish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level after a long correction is expected.
  6. A break above the 50% Fibonacci level indicates an uptrend rather than a downtrend.
Euro daily chart

GBP/USD Bullish Swing Aims at 38.2% Fib at 1.25

The GBP/USD has also made a bullish breakout above the resistance trend lines (dotted orange):

  1. The GBP/USD seems to be in the same spot and situation as the EUR/USD.
  2. We are expecting an ABC (gray) pattern or WXY correction within a wave 4 (pink).
  3. The wave 4 remains valid as long as price action respects the shallow Fibonacci levels.
  4. A bullish breakout above resistance (red box) could see a push up towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
  5. A bearish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level is then the most expected scenario.
  6. A downtrend continuation could aim for a lower low around 1.15.
British Pound daily chart

BTC/USD Bullish Bounce Aims at $30k

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has not made a lower low for at least 4 weeks, which is increasing the chance that the wave A (gray) correction is completed:

  1. After completing the potential wave A (gray), the BTC/USD is therefore expected to make a bullish retracement within a wave B (gray).
  2. The first target is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 30k, which is a heavy resistance zone.
  3. A bearish bounce is expected at this 23.6% Fibonacci target.
  4. A higher low could then confirm a larger ABC (yellow) within wave B (gray).
  5. Another bullish push up towards the 38.2% Fibonacci is then expected, which could also be a bearish bouncing spot to test the support again.
  6. Price will then either bounce at support for a move up towards the 50% Fibonacci or for a bearish break and a new low.
Bitcoin weekly chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter.

Weekly Waves 4 July: GBP/USD, Bitcoin and Gold

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the GBP/USD monthly chart, the Bitcoin crypto currency daily chart, and the Gold weekly chart.

Waves weekly analysis FX Empire

GBP/USD Bears Aiming at Double Bottom

The GBP/USD downtrend is approaching the lows of the years 2016 and 2020. Let’s review if the Cable can break the double bottom for a new lower low:

  1. The GBP/USD seems to be moving lower in a bearish impulse, which is probably a wave 3 of some sort (marked as yellow).
  2. A bullish retracement is expected within a wave 4 (yellow) once the bearish wave 3 (yellow) has been completed.
  3. The Fibonacci retracement levels (brown) will act as a resistance zone. Especially the 23.6-50% Fibonacci levels.
  4. A break above the 50% Fib places the bearish analysis on hold whereas a deeper push up can even invalidate it.
  5. A bearish continuation (orange arrows) should take place after the wave 4 (yellow) is completed.
  6. The bearish wave 5 (yellow) should aim at the double bottom and could even go further down towards the FIbonacci targets.
  7. The downtrend could complete a wave 5 (pink) of wave C (gray), after which a bullish reversal could take place (green arrows).
British Pound monthly chart

BTC/USD Bullish Reversal Expected within Wave B

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is showing a semi bullish daily candlestick pattern on Friday. Let’s review whether there is any reversal potential:

  1. The BTC/USD seems to have completed a 5 wave pattern (orange) with the most recent low.
  2. The bullish daily candlestick pattern could be a first signal that a bullish retracement is coming soon.
  3. The 5 wave (orange) could also complete a wave 5 (green) of wave 5 (yellow) of wave A (pink).
  4. An ABC (yellow) could emerge within a wave B (pink).
  5. The main targets for the wave B (pink) are at the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels.
  6. A deeper bullish retracement is not expected at the moment but this could change if price action starts to behave very bullishly.
  7. After completing a wave B (pink), a new bearish swing within wave C (pink) is expected to take price lower again and create a new low to complete an ABC zigzag (pink).
Bitcoin daily chart

Gold Bears Should See Reversal Soon

The Gold chart (XAU/USD) is showing a bearish correction at the moment. Let’s review how deep can the bears push it before finding support:

  1. The Gold weekly chart is seeing a bearish impulse develop within a wave 5 (green) of wave C (yellow) of wave 4 (pink).
  2. The bears are therefore not expected to keep control for all too long, even though a wave 4 can be choppy and lengthy.
  3. Eventually, price action should turn around at the support zones and Fibonacci levels for a bullish reversal.
  4. This bullish impulse could signal that the wave 4 (pink) is completed and that a wave 5 (pink) has started.
  5. This could be either part of a wave 5 (gray) or even still part of a wave 3’ (gray).
Gold weekly chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 26 June: GBP/USD, US30 and Bitcoin

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the GBP/USD 4 hour chart, the Bitcoin crypto currency 4 hour chart, and the US30 daily chart.

Waves analysis for 26.06.22

GBP/USD Bullish Price Swing in Wave 4?

The GBP/USD has made a 500 pip bullish price swing. But despite the large move up, price action is technically still in a downtrend. Let’s review:

  1. The GBP/USD broke below the round level of 1.20 but the bulls regained control quickly and unexpectedly.
  2. The bullish price swing however seems to consist of an internal ABC pattern (yellow) within the wave A (green).
  3. Our Elliott Wave analysis therefore favors a bearish ABC (yellow) within the wave B (green).
  4. The wave B (green) could go to the 78.6%, 88.6% or even previous bottom (100%).
  5. A larger bullish ABC (green) correction could complete a wave 4 (pink). This remains valid as long as price action stays below the bottom of wave 1.
  6. A break above the 1.2475-1.25 resistance zone would indicate a potential trend reversal or retracement.
  7. A new downtrend could aim for targets at 1.1850, 1.1750, 1.1650, and 1.15.
GBP/USD 4 hour chart

BTC/USD Struggles to Find Bullish Legs?

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has reached the -27.2% Fibonacci target around the round psychological level of $20,000. Let’s review what is next for the main crypto currency:

  1. The BTC/USD is trying to build a bullish retracement but the price action remains hesitant to pull away from the 20k area.
  2. It seems though that price action will be completing a bullish ABC (green) within a wave 4 (pink) choppy correction.
  3. The most logical target for the wave C (green) of wave (pink) is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level but sometimes price action can retrace deeper.
  4. A bullish break above the trend line (orange) and 78.6% Fibonacci level makes the current bearish Elliott Wave analysis unlikely and invalidate.
  5. A bullish correction that is choppy and lengthy is typical for a wave 4 and would confirm this expected wave pattern.
  6. The bearish target for the wave 5 (pink) of wave 5 (gray) of wave A (purple) is around $17,500. A larger wave B pattern could emerge of a larger ABC once the wave A is completed.
Bitcoin 4 hour chart

US30 Large Whipsaw but Bearish Remain in Control

The US30 made a strong bullish bounce at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level:

  1. The US30 bullish bounce could indicate a potential larger bullish correction.
  2. Price action, however, remains in a downtrend and the bullish bounce is probably a retracement.
  3. The bearish correction has probably completed a wave A or W (pink) of a larger ABC or WXY (pink) correction.
  4. If price action places a higher low, then a bullish ABC (green) within wave B or X (pink) could see price action move towards the resistance trend lines (orange).
  5. A bearish bounce and downtrend continuation is expected to emerge within a large and complex wave 4 (blue).
Dow Jones daily chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter.

Weekly Waves 13 June: EUR/USD, US30 and Bitcoin

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD 4 hour chart, the Bitcoin crypto currency 4 hour chart, and the US30 monthly chart.

EUR/USD Testing Key 78.6% Fibonacci Level

The EUR/USD is making a quick decline – as expected last week – but will the EUR make a bullish bounce at the support? Let’s review:

  1. The EUR/USD bearish impulsive price swing was expected. Price action has reached the 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci support levels.
  2. The Elliott Wave analysis indicates either an ABC (yellow) pattern of a larger bullish ABC (pink) correction OR a downtrend continuation via a 123 (orange).
  3. The main aspect to keep an eye on is the price pattern that develops at the deep Fibonacci retracement levels.
  4. A bear flag pattern (orange arrows) indicates a higher chance of a downtrend. In this case, price action probably already completed an ABC (orange) in wave 4 (gray) and price action is moving lower in a 123 (orange).
  5. A stronger bullish rebound, however, would indicate a larger ABC (pink) pattern in wave 4 (gray) and a downtrend after a bullish correction takes place.
  6. A downtrend usually should aim for targets at 1.0250 and parity (1.00).
EUR/USD 4 hour chart

BTC/USD Dramatic Bearish Breakout Fuels Downtrend

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) created a consolidation pattern and made a bearish breakout to lower price levels:

  1. The BTC/USD was unable to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level. The corrective pattern took two weeks to complete before price action dropped.
  2. The bearish breakout below the support trend line (dotted green) sparked yet another sell off in Bitcoin – after a larger downtrend had already emerged.
  3. The correction is probably a wave 4 (yellow) because a choppy and shallow retracement is typical for such Elliott Wave patterns.
  4. The wave 5 (yellow) could be completed if price action reaches the -27.2% Fibonacci target around the round level of 20k.
  5. The wave 5 could complete a larger ABC (gray) pattern. A bullish bounce (green arrows) could complete a wave B (gray) before another wave C.
Bitcoin daily chart

US30 Sees New Round of Selling Again

The US30 stock market found another resistance spot on the chart, which sparked yet another sell off:

  1. The Us30 chart is in a downtrend as expected. A new lower high has been confirmed and price action is now testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level again.
  2. The downtrend channel is very sturdy and tested but considering the strength of the bears, a push below the support lines (green) of the channel could occur.
  3. A further decline to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is expected.
  4. A few bullish rebounds are expected along the way. But in most cases, the bullish retracements should hit resistance levels within the channel and past support and make a bearish bounce.
  5. A bearish ABC (pink) pattern is expected to take place in a larger WXY (gray) of wave 4 (purple).
Dow Jones weekly chart

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 6 June: EUR/USD, US30 and Bitcoin

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD 4 hour chart, the Bitcoin crypto currency 4 hour chart, and the US30 monthly chart.

Weekly Waves Analysis from Elite CurrenSea

EUR/USD Bearish Zigzag Testing Key Fibonacci Support

The EUR/USD reached the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0790. But the price action was unable to break above that resistance zone:

  1. The EUR/USD bearish bounce indicates that the bullish price swing has completed a 5 wave (orange) pattern within wave A (blue).
  2. Price action has made a lower high at the resistance line (orange). This could confirm a bearish ABC (orange) pattern in wave B (blue).
  3. A breakout below the support trend line (green) would confirm the bearish breakout (orange arrows) towards the Fibonacci support levels.
  4. A bullish bounce at the Fib levels (green arrows) indicates a larger ABC bullish zigzag pattern (blue).
  5. The ABC (blue) is probably part of a larger wave W (pink) of a larger WXY in wave 4 (gray).
  6. A break below the 61.8% Fibonacci makes the zigzag pattern slightly less likely. A break below the 88.6% makes it very unlikely and a break below the bottom invalidates it.
Euro 4 hour chart
Euro 4 hour chart

BTC/USD Critical Breakout Up or Down

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has reached a key decision zone for a bearish or bullish breakout:

  1. The BTC/USD needs a breakout (green arrows) above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, resistance trend lines (orange), and resistance zone (red box) for a bullsh revival.
  2. A bearish breakout (orange arrows) below the support lines (green) could indicate a continuation of the downtrend.
  3. A bullish scenario is shown by the pink waves indicating a 5 wave pattern (pink) has completed within wave A1 (blue)
  4. A bearish scenario is indicated by the gray waves indicating that one more lower low could be expected within wave A2 (blue).
  5. Eventually a larger ABC (blue) correction is expected to unfold. The bullish trend would be within a wave b (blue), either now or after a lower low.
Bitcoin 4 hour chart
Bitcoin 4 hour chart

US30 Preparing for Large Bearish Correction

The US30 is started to unfold in a bearish pattern, just as we expected months ago:

  1. The monthly candles are showing a series of lower lows and lower highs of the monthly candles.
  2. The bearish correction stopped at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
  3. This analysis offers 2 main scenarios: 5 waves have been completed (gray) or 5 waves are still going to be completed (blue).
  4. In our view, the probability of a bearish pressure is much larger and a bearish correction via an ABC pattern (gray) is much more likely.
  5. The bearish correction could retrace as deep as the support zone (blue box) and 61.8% Fibonacci level throughout 2022 and 2023.
  6. The resistance zones (red) are key for a bearish bounce or bullish breakout.
Dow Jones monthly chart
Dow Jones monthly chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 30 May: EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Bitcoin

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD 4 hour chart, the Bitcoin crypto currency daily chart, and the USD/JPY 4 hour chart.

Waves Analysis FX Empire

EUR/USD Bullish ABC Zigzag Pattern

The EUR/USD completed a wave 3 (gray) of a larger downtrend. Now price action is preparing for a larger bullish correction:

  1. The EUR/USD bullish price swing is unfolding in a 5 wave pattern (blue).
  2. The current wave is probably a wave 5 (blue) of a larger wave A (pink).
  3. The first target is the larger 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the wave 4 (gray).
  4. A bearish bounce (orange arrows) could take place at the resistance level.
  5. A bearish correction should create an ABC (blue) pattern in wave B (pink).
  6. The bearish swing should not break the bottom otherwise the ABC (pink) zigzag becomes invalidated.
  7. A bullish wave C (pink) could complete wave 4 (gray) or a wave W of 4.
EUR/USD 4 hour chart

BTC/USD Finding Support and a Bullish Bounce

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) failed to break the support and lows for several days. Price action seems to be moving north now:

  1. The BTC/USD was in a strong downtrend.
  2. The main question is: has the downtrend completed a wave 5 (pink) of wave a (gray) or will there be one more low remaining?
  3. The resistance levels are the critical resistance zone for that decision.
  4. A bullish breakout (green arrow) could confirm a larger 123 (blue) pattern within an ABC (pink).
  5. A bearish bounce (orange arrow) could indicate an ABC (blue) pattern within a WXY (pink).
  6. Eventually price action is expected to complete an ABC (gray) pattern.
Bitcoin daily chart

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY is building a bearish correction in a solid uptrend:

  1. The uptrend seems to have completed a wave 3 (pink) pattern.
  2. The bearish correction is choppy and shallow, as usual for a wave 4 (pink).
  3. The wave 4 (pink) remains valid as long as price action does not correct below the 50% Fib or deeper.
  4. A complex correction via a WXY (blue) pattern could unfold in wave 4 (pink).
  5. A bullish bounce is expected at the 38.2% Fibonacci level if price action manages to reach it.
  6. Price action needs a clear higher low plus bounce before the wave 4 (pink) could be considered completed.
USD/JPY Daily chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 23 May: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and Bitcoin

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD 4 hour chart, the Bitcoin crypto currency daily chart, and GBP/USD weekly chart.

EUR/USD Aiming for 1.10 Bullish Target

The EUR/USD is breaking above the resistance trend lines (dotted orange). Let’s review what this means for the EUR/USD:

  1. The EUR/USD bullish breakout is indicating the end of the current downtrend and the bearish price swing (wave 3 gray).
  2. A bullish ABC (pink) pattern is expected. This is probably within wave 4 (gray).
  3. The wave A (pink) is expected to aim and stop at a resistance zone around 1.0750-1.08.
  4. A bearish ABC pullback (orange arrows) should take price back down again to the 50-61.8% Fibonacci support zone.
  5. A bullish bounce (green arrows) at the 50-61.8% Fibonacci level should see another bullish swing take price up to the Fibonacci targets as high as 1.10.
EUR/USD 4 hour chart

BTC/USD Approaches the End of Bearish Correction

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is building a mild bullish correction within a strong downtrend:

  1. The BTC/USD topped out at the all-time-high after building a rising wedge reversal chart pattern (dotted green lines).
  2. Since creating that top, the bearish decline has been strong. The bearish swing seems to be unfolding in 5 waves (orange).
  3. The recent bear flag pattern (dotted blue lines) was probably part of a wave 4 (orange).
  4. The current correction seems to be a wave 4 (green) of a wave 5 (orange) of a larger ABC correction (pink) in wave 4 (gray).
  5. Keep in mind that the ABC (pink) could be part of a wave W of a larger WXY complex correction.
  6. As long as price action respects the Fibonacci 38.2-50% resistance levels, one more lower low is still expected. After that, a bullish bounce (green arrows) could emerge.
  7. A break above the resistance line (orange) could indicate an immediate uptrend.
Bitcoin daily chart

GBP/USD Bearish Wave 3 Completed

The GBP/USD is testing the historical lows and support zone:

  1. The GBP/USD bearish decline has been very impulsive so far.
  2. The recent candlestick pattern on the weekly chart shows a strong bullish weekly candle. This could indicate that the wave 3 (gray) is completed.
  3. If the wave 4 (gray) has indeed started, then price action could build a lengthy and choppy correction which should usually stay below the 50% Fibonacci level.
  4. A break above the 50-61.8% Fibonacci level makes the bearish wave 4-5 (gray) within wave C (pink) unlikely. In that case, a bullish swing is expected.
  5. After the correction is completed, one more bearish price swing should create a new lower low to complete wave 5 (gray) of wave C (pink).
  6. An ABC (pink) pattern seems to be completing a wave B (yellow) of a larger ABC (yellow).
GBP/USD Weekly chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 9 May: EUR/USD, Bitcoin, and US30

EUR/USD Complex Correction

The EUR/USD is testing a key support zone again. The main question is whether the EUR/USD make a bearish breakout:

  1. The EUR/USD wave pattern suggests that a longer and complex chart pattern is expected to take place.
  2. The downtrend however is expected to remain valid after the correction is completed.
  3. A bearish breakout would invalidate the complex correction but confirm the immediate downtrend.
  4. If a bullish bounce does occur, then a wave C (green) can develop within wave B (blue).
  5. A larger ABC (blue) would finish wave X (pink) of a larger wave Y (pink) of wave 4 (gray).
  6. The wave 4 (gray) may not correct above the 50% Fibonacci, otherwise it is likely to actually be a wave 4.
  7. Once the downtrend restarts, the main targets are expected 1.0375, 1.0325, 1.025, and even 1.00.
EUR/USD 4 hour chart

BTC/USD Key Bearish Breakout

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has made a bearish breakout and push below the support trend lines (dotted green):

  1. The BTC/USD bearish breakout invalidates the expected bullish complex correction of last week.
  2. The Elliott Wave analysis has been therefore changed to reflect the new bearish breakout. The current view is a 5 wave (blue) pattern within wave A (pink).
  3. A larger ABC (pink) pattern could unfold within a wave 4 (gray) or within a wave W of a larger WXY.
  4. The main bearish target of the wave 5 (blue) is the support zone (blue box) or the -27.2% Fibonacci target.
Bitcoin weekly chart

US30 Downtrend Channel Emerges

The US30 remains bearish too, as expected in our analysis last week:

  1. The US30 had again a bearish weekly candle. The high of the candle tested the resistance of the previous weekly high but saw a serious sell off.
  2. A bearish push towards 50% Fibonacci level is now expected (orange arrow).
  3. A bullish retracement could take place at the Fibonacci levels (green arrows) but ultimately, a larger bearish retracement is expected.
  4. If price action stays above the 50% Fibonacci level, then a wave 3-4 (gray) is still possible.
  5. But a break below the 50% Fib indicates a deeper ABC (blue) correction within wave W (green) of wave 4 (pink).
Dow Jones weekly chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 1 May: EUR/USD, Bitcoin, and US30

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD 4 hour chart, the Bitcoin crypto currency daily chart, and US30 on the daily chart.

EUR/USD Wave 3 Creates Freefall to 1.05

The EUR/USD is falling quickly. The price decline was mentioned in last week’s Elliott Wave analysis. Let’s review how far it can decline:

  1. The EUR/USD decline is part of a wave 3 of wave 3. The bearish impulse has accelerated last week, which is indicating a wave 3 pattern.
  2. Price action is building a small pullback but an immediate breakout (red arrow) below the support line (green) is expected at the beginning of May.
  3. The main target is the 1.0325-1.0375 zone.
  4. If the 1.05 support zone does create a larger bullish pullback, then price action is expected to respect the shallow 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels.
  5. A bearish bounce and continuation would confirm a wave 4 (orange) pattern.
  6. A break above the 1.07-1.0770 resistance places the downtrend analysis on hold.
  7. Price action could fall as deep as 1.0250 and 1.00 (parity).
Euro daily chart

BTC/USD Building Falling Wedge Chart Pattern

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has not yet made a bullish bounce but the bearish price action looks choppy:

  1. The BTC/USD choppy price action could be explained by a falling wedge chart pattern (purple lines), which often indicates a reversal.
  2. A break (green arrow) above the resistance could confirm the bullish price swing and the end of the wave B (pink).
  3. A bullish ABC (pink) pattern is expected. A bullish breakout could also indicate the start f% and the wave C (pink).
  4. A bearish breakout does invalidate the ABC pattern because the 78.6% and 88.6% Fibonacci levels could act as support.
  5. Only a break below the bottom invalidates the bullish ABC pattern.
  6. Once price action reaches the Fibonacci targets, a bearish reversal is expected within a wave C (green).
Bitcoin daily chart

US30 Bearish Decline Continues

The US30 already made a strong bearish bounce two weeks ago. This week the bearish pressure remained visible:

  1. The US30 daily chart went up and down during the first 4 trading days last week but ultimately closed in negative territory with the strong bearish Friday candle.
  2. The bearish decline is now testing the support trend line (green). A bearish breakout could indicate a decline towards the 50% Fibonacci level.
  3. A downtrend is expected to remain in place as long as price action does not break above the resistance (orange) of the downtrend channel.
  4. A bearish ABC (pink) pattern is expected within wave W (green) of a larger WXY correction in wave 4 (blue).
Dow Jones daily chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 26 Apr: EUR/USD, Bitcoin and US30

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD daily chart, the Bitcoin crypto currency daily chart, and US30 on the weekly chart.

EUR/USD Confirms Bearish Wave 3 Pattern

The EUR/USD made a key bearish breakout below the support trend line (dotted green). Let’s review what the breakout indicates:

  1. The EUR/USD is now in a wave 3 (pink) rather than a wave C because price action is approaching the -161.8% Fibonacci target.
  2. The -161.8% Fibonacci target could be a bouncing spot. The strength of the bounce will depend if the wave 3 (pink) will complete at this target or the -200% Fib target.
  3. A strong bullish bounce could indicate the end of wave 3 (pink) and the start of wave 4 (pink).
  4. A mild bullish reaction indicates that the wave 3 (pink) is still developing and a bearish breakout should see price towards 1.05, 1.04, 1.025, and 1.00.
  5. A bullish retracement should usually be shallow which is usual for waves 4. The resistance boxes (red) are expected to stop price action from moving any higher.
EUR/USD daily chart 26.04.2022

BTC/USD Bullish Pinbar Confirms Double Bottom?

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has printed another bullish candlestick pinbar:

  1. The BTC/USD bullish pinbar is the second one in recent history and offers a double bottom pattern at the support trend lines (green).
  2. We changed our Elliott Wave analysis to a bearish ABC (orange) pattern within wave B (green), compared to last week.
  3. Now price action is expected to make a bullish bounce within wave C (green). The Fibonacci levels are the main targets.
  4. A breakout above the resistance trend lines (orange) would confirm the development within that wave C (green).
  5. A larger ABC (pink) corrective pattern is expected within wave 4 (purple).
Bitcoin daily chart 26.04.2022

US30 Index Sinks Again at Heavy Resistance

The US30 made a strong bearish bounce at the resistance zone. Let’s review what it means for the US30 chart:

  1. The US30 weekly chart was unable to break above the resistance zone (orange). In fact, price action showed a strong bearish rejection (bearish weekly candle).
  2. The bearish rejection confirms a lower high. Price action already made several lower lows so a downtrend is already established.
  3. That said, the angle of the trend is still shallow and could easily fit within a waev 4 pattern.
  4. For a stronger and more serious downtrend to be confirmed, price action will need to break below the support trend line (green).
  5. Eventually a retest and break below the 50% Fibonacci is needed before a clear bearish reversal is expected (red arrows).
  6. The uptrend (green arrow) is only a factor if price action is able to break above the resistance box (orange).
Dow Jones weekly chart 26.04.2022

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Weekly Waves 19 Apr: EUR/USD, Bitcoin, and USD/JPY

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD monthly chart, the Bitcoin crypto currency daily chart, and USD/JPY on the monthly chart.

EUR/USD Bearish Breakout Below Monthly Support

EUR/USD Monthly chart

The EUR/USD monthly chart seems to be breaking below the critical support trend line (dotted green). What will this breakout indicate for the EUR/USD? Let’s review:

  1. The EUR/USD bearish breakout below the support line (dotted green) could confirm a strong bearish price swing.
  2. Although the previous bottom could stop price action from an immediate decline, our Elliott Wave analysis does favor a bearish continuation towards the -27.2% Fibonacci target.
  3. The bearish decline could unfold in a bearish trend channel.
  4. A bullish push above the broken trend line could place the bearish analysis on hold.
  5. For the moment, a bullish ABC (blue) pattern within wave B (pink) seems completed and price is moving lower within wave C (pink).

BTC/USD Bullish Pinbar at Support Line

Bitcoin daily chart

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has made a bullish bounce at the support trend line (green). Let’s analyze what that could mean for the BTC/USD:

  1. BTC/USD showed a bullish pinbar candlestick pattern yesterday. The bullish candle occurred at the key support trend line (green).
  2. The bullish bounce is probably indicating a bullish reversal.
  3. The Elliott Wave patterns suggest a WXY (blue) complex correction within a potential wave B (pink).
  4. A bullish ABC could unfold within the wave Y (blue) towards the main target zone around 50-60k.
  5. A break below the support trend line could place the bullish analysis on hold.

USD/JPY Wide Open Space Above after Strong Impulse

USD/JPY Monthly chart

The USD/JPY is showing extremely strong bullish momentum:

  1. The USD/JPY bullish breakout above the resistance trend lines (dotted orange) has confirmed the bullish ABCDE (blue) triangle pattern within wave B (pink).
  2. The larger picture seems to indicate an ABC (pink) Elliott Wave pattern.
  3. The last 2 months, price action has accelerated which is indicating a wave 3 (blue) pattern within the wave C (pink).
  4. Due to the strong surge, a small retracement or pullback towards the previous top or last month’s close would be useful for potential entry positions.
  5. In general though, there seems to be plenty of space until the main Fibonacci -27.2% Fibonacci target has been hit.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

Weekly Waves 12 Apr: EUR/USD, Bitcoin, and Gold

EUR/USD Faces Decisive Support Zone

EUR/USD Monthly chart 12.04.2022

The EUR/USD monthly chart is testing a key support zone and trend line (green):

  1. The EUR/USD is facing a decisive moment: will price action break or bounce?
  2. The EUR/USD bullish bounce would confirm a potential ABCDE (pink) triangle pattern within wave B (red).
  3. Price action needs to break above the opening of this month and last month’s high. An ABC up could be expected within wave E (pink).
  4. The EUR/USD bearish breakout would indicate an immediate downtrend. In that case, price action completed an ABC (pink) correction and is making a decline within a 123 (pink) of wave C (red).

BTC/USD Bearish Swing to Rebound at Fibs

Bitcoin daily chart 12.04.2022

Bitcoin has made a small bearish reversal. Is the crypto currency looking for a downtrend or for a bounce, let’s review:

  1. The BTC/USD made a bearish reversal, which means that the bullish pattern is probably an ABC (blue) pattern.
  2. However, we expect price action to develop a larger bullish correction within wave B (purple).
  3. Therefore, a bullish and expanded WXY (pink) pattern is the current favorite Elliott Wave pattern in wave B (purple).
  4. A bullish bounce at the Fibonacci support levels would confirm it.
  5. But a bearish breakout below the support zone would indicate it.
  6. The main targets are located at the Fibonacci targets.

Gold Pushing for a Bullish Breakout

Gold daily chart 12.04.2022

The XAU/USD has made a bullish bounce and is now testing the resistance:

  1. The XAU/USD made a strong push up for a wave 3 (blue).
  2. The retracement is probably a wave 4 (blue), although the wave 4 can be extended and complete itself at a later moment in time (blue 4’).
  3. A breakout (green arrows) above the resistance (orange) could indicate an attempt to test the previous top.
  4. A break below the previous tops (blue boxes) would invalidate the bullish outlook.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter