Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise Closing the Week up 6.2%

Natural gas prices moved higher closing up 1%, and settling higher by 6.2% for the week. The weather is expected to be cooler than normal for most of the mid-west for the next 6-days days and then moderate. In late January through mid-February, significant colder-than-normal temperatures in the Lower 48 states resulted in increased heating demand for natural gas in the United States.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher on Friday. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 2.72. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.56. Medium-term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). Prices are overbought. The current reading on the fast stochastic is printing near 94, above the overbought trigger level of 80, foreshadowing a correction.

The weather was cold in January through February

In late January through mid-February, significant colder-than-normal temperatures in the Lower 48 states resulted in increased heating demand for natural gas in the United States, despite an otherwise warmer-than-normal winter. As a result, the winter had larger-than-average winter natural gas withdrawals. Before the cold snap, winter temperatures had been relatively mild, but a combination of increased heating demand, record liquefied natural gas and pipeline exports, and decreased natural gas production contributed to the withdrawal activity during February.

Gold Price Predication – Prices Rise as Yield Drop for the Week

Gold prices continued to rally as the dollar moved lower and U.S. yields continued to decline. The U.S. 10-year yield dropped nearly 10-basis points this week. Consumer sentiment rose by less than expected while homebuilders surged to a 15-year high. The University of Michigan showed its preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 86.5 from a final reading of 84.9 in March. Expectations are that the index would rise to 89.6.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices continued to rally, pushing above resistance near the 50-day moving average at 1,753, which is now seen as support. Target resistance on the yellow metal is seen near the February highs at 1,855. Short-term momentum reversed and turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 84, above the overbought trigger level of 86. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation. The 10-day moving average crossed above the 50-day moving average, which means that a short-term average is nearly in place.

U.S. Housing Starts Surged

U.S. Housing Starts surged to a 15-year high in March. Housing starts surged 19.4% to an annual rate of 1.739 million units last month, the highest level since June 2006. Expectations had been for Housing Start to rise to a rate of 1.613 million units in March.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise Despite Robust Inventory Build

Natural gas prices whipsawed forming an outside day and closed up 1.76% on the trading session. This movement followed the Department of Energy’s inventory report, which shows a slightly larger than expected build in natural gas inventories according to survey provider Estimize. The weather is expected to be cooler than normal for most of the mid-west for the next 6-days days and then moderate.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher on Thursday, generating an outside day which is a higher high a lower low and a lower close. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 2.72. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.56. Medium-term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Inventories Rise More than Expected

Ntaural gas in storage was 1,845 Bcf as of Friday, April 9, 2021, according to the EIA. This represents a net increase of 61 Bcf from the previous week. Expections were for a 50 Bcf build in inventories according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 242 Bcf less than last year at this time and 11 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,834 Bcf. At 1,845 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Surge Breaking Through Resistance as Yields Tumble

Gold prices surged higher breaking out above resistance levels as US yields tumbled despite a stronger than expected U.S. Retail sales report. The U.S. 10-year yield dropped nearly 11-basis points once of the largest declines of the year. Advance retail sales rose 9.8% for the month, the Commerce Department reported compared to estimates of a 6.1% gain and a decline of 2.7% in February. The restaurant industry saw a 13.4% surge, thanks to the increasing relaxing of restrictions as Covid vaccines accelerate to a pace of more than 3 million a day.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices surged higher, breaking through resistance which is now support near the 50-day moving average at 1,753. Target resistance on the yellow metal is seen near the February highs at 1,855. Short-term momentum reversed and turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 84, above the overbought trigger level of 80. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

Jobless Claims Drop

Initial jobless claims dropped to 576,000 for the week ended April 10. That was easily the lowest total since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic and represented a sharp decline from the previous week’s total of 769,000. The estimate was 710,000.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Whipsaw and Fall as Demand Drops

Natural Gas prices moved lower on Wednesday, whipsawing and closing near the session lows.  This comes ahead of Thursday’s inventory report from the Department of Energy. Expectations are for a 50 Bcf build-in stockpiles according to survey provider Estimize. The weather is expected to be colder than normal throughout most of the midwest for the next 6-10 days. There is snow expected in the mountains which should increase heating demand.

Technical Analysis

Natural Gas prices closed on the session lows after making a higher high which is a sign of rejection. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2,56. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 2.73. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

Demand Falls

Demand for U.S. natural gas fell in all sectors except for deliveries to LNG facilities. According to the EIA total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 2.0% compared with the previous report week. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 4.0% week over week. Industrial sector consumption decreased slightly by 0.6% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 1.2% as a result of mild temperatures.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Slip Despite a Declining Greenback

Gold prices moved lower on Wednesday, despite a declining dollar. The rise in the 10-year yield came despite the budget deficit hitting an all-time high. Treasury yields appear to be topping out, which could lead to a rally in the yellow metal. All the focus seems to on cryptocurrencies, with Coinbase making its IPO.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved lower staying sandwiched below resistance near the 50-day moving average at 1,754 and support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,736. As prices continue to squeeze between these levels, energy is growing and will likely lead to a breakout or break down. Additional support is seen near the June lows at 1,670. Short-term momentum is negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 74, down from an overbought condition near 77, which reflects accelerating negative momentum. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

The Budget Deficit Hits an All-time High

The U.S. government’s budget deficit surged to an all-time high of $1.7 trillion for the first six months of this budget year, nearly double the previous record. In its monthly budget report, the Treasury Department said that the deficit for the first half of the budget year,  from October through March, was up from a shortfall of $743.5 billion for the same period a year ago. The deficit has been driven higher by trillions of dollars in support Congress has passed in successive economic rescue packages since the pandemic struck in early March 2020.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rally on Cold Weather Forecast

Natural gas prices moved higher on Tuesday as colder than normal weather is expected to move into the south-central portions of the United States, increasing heating demand. The weather is also likely to be colder than normal in the midwest. U.S. Production continues to increase, but this has failed to weigh on prices.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices rallied on Tuesday, pushing through trend line resistance and poised to test the late March highs at 2.69. Additional resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 2.73. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.56. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

U.S. Production Continues to Rise

U.S. production continues to increase. According to data from the EIA, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 0.6% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 0.5% compared with the previous report week to average 92.3 Bcf per day, which is almost the same level as for the same week last year. Average net imports from Canada increased by 4.1% from last week.

Gold Price Prediction – Gold Rebounds as Yields Fall and Dollar Drops

 

Gold prices moved higher on Tuesday, rebounding as the dollar moved lower and yields dropped. The decline in the 10-year yield came despite a larger than the expected headline and core CPI report announced on Tuesday by the Department of Labor. Treasury yields appear to be topping out which could lead to a rally in the yellow metal.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved higher but failed to capture resistance near the 50-day moving average at 1,756. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,730. Additional support is seen near the June lows at 1,670. Short-term momentum is negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 77, down from an overbought condition near 81, which reflects accelerating negative momentum. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

Consumer Prices Surge

Consumer prices surged in March, buoyed by a strong economic recovery and year-over-year comparisons when the Covid-19 pandemic was about to throttle the U.S. economy. The consumer price index rose 0.6% from the previous month but 2.6% from the same period a year ago. The year-over-year gain is the highest since August 2018 and was well above the 1.7% recorded in February. Expectations were for a rise of 0.5% monthly and 2.5% from March 2020. Gasoline prices were the biggest contributor to the monthly gain, surging 9.1% in March and responsible for about half the overall CPI increase.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise but Fail To Recapture Resistance

Natural gas prices moved higher on Monday, rising 1.46% but was unable to recapture resistance levels. The weather is expected to be cooler than normal throughout the southcentral and mid-west regions for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. The EIA expects that U.S. consumption of natural gas will be down 0.4% from 2020.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher on Monday but failed to recapture resistance near the 10-day moving average at 2.57. Target resistance is seen near the mid-March highs at 2.69 and then the 50-day moving average at 2.73. Support is seen near the April lows at 2.45. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

The EIA Expects Consumption to Fall

EIA expects that U.S. consumption of natural gas will average 82.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2021, down 0.4% from 2020. The decline in U.S. natural gas consumption is a result of less natural gas consumed for electric power generation because of higher natural gas prices compared with last year. In 2021, we expect residential and commercial natural gas consumption will rise by a total of 1.1 Bcf/d from 2020 and industrial consumption will rise by 1.4 Bcf/d from 2020.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Slip as Yields Rise

Gold prices moved lower on Monday, declining for a second consecutive trading session after testing resistance and rising 1.3% last week. The dollar was nearly unchanged, but U.S. Treasury yields moved higher, which put downward pressure on gold prices. This came following a 60-minute interview that aired on Sunday with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Despite a growing economy the Fed Chair reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to keeping loose monetary policy in place for the entire year.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved lower after failing to recapture resistance seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,759. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,727. Additional support is seen near the June lows at 1,670. Short-term momentum is negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 81, above the overbought trigger level which foreshadows a correction. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with an declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

Fed Will Remain Unchanged in 2021

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to keep loose monetary policy in place. His view includes near-zero short-term borrowing rates and $120 billion a month in bond purchases put in place following a sharp rebound from the plunge in activity between February and April 2020. Though the economy has recovered more than 13 million jobs since the depths of the crisis, there remain about 9 million more still sidelined.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise but Form Reversal Pattern

Natural gas prices moved higher on Friday but are still trading in a range. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the weather is expected to become cooler than normal for most mid-west for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days. EIA estimates that natural gas inventories ended in March 2021 at nearly 1.8 Tcf, which is 2% lower than the five-year (2016–20) average.

Technical analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher but still form a reversal pattern that looks like a head and shoulder pattern. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.57. Support is seen near the March lows at 2.35. Momentum is flat. The fast stochastic is printing near the signal line. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram has a flat trajectory which points to additional consolidation.

Inventories Ended March Lower Year over Year

EIA estimates that natural gas inventories ended in March 2021 at nearly 1.8 Tcf, which is 2% lower than the five-year average. The winter of 2020–21 had more natural gas withdrawn from storage than the five-year average due to the cold February temperatures in low natural gas production. Rising natural gas production and lower natural gas consumption for power generation than in the past two summers will contribute to storage injections outpacing the five-year average in 2021.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Consolidate but End the Week Up 1.3%

Gold prices moved lower on Friday after testing resistance but finishing the week up 1.3%. The dollar moved higher in tandem with U.S. Treasury yields following a stronger than expected U.S. Inflation report. More substantial inflation will eventually force the Federal Reserve to change their tune on interest rates but current levels are unlikely to force their hand.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved lower after failing to recapture resistance seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,761. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,727. Additional support is seen near the June lows at 1,670. Short-term momentum is decelerating as the fast stochastic is poised to generate a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 87, above the overbought trigger level which foreshadows a correction. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

U.S. Producer Prices Surge in March

U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in March, notching up a 9-1/2 year high. According to the Labor Department, the producer price index rose 1.0% in March after increasing 0.5% in February. In the 12 months through March, the PPI surged 4.2%. That was the most significant year-on-year rise since September 2011 and followed a 2.8% advance in February. Expectations had been for a 0.5% increase in March and a rise of 3.8% year-on-year.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise Following Inventory Report

Natural gas prices consolidated on Thursday, forming an inside day which is a sign of indecision. This movement followed an inline report from the Department of energy which showed that natural gas inventories rose by 20 Bcf. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the weather is expected to become cooler than normal for most mid-west for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days.

Technical analysis

Natural gas prices moved sideways, forming an inside day as the high was lower than the prior days high and the low was higher than the prior days low. Prices continue to create a bear flag continuation pattern. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.57. Support is seen near the March lows at 2.35. Momentum is flat. The fast stochastic is printing near the signal line. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram has a flat trajectory which points to additional consolidation.

Inventories Rise In Line with Expectations

Natural gas in storage was 1,784 Bcf as of Friday, April 2, 2021, according to the EIA. This rise in stockpiles represents a net increase of 20 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 20 bcf build, according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 235 Bcf less than last year at this time and 24 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,808 Bcf. At 1,784 Bcf, the total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Rise as the Dollar Eases Following Disappointing Jobless Claims

Gold prices moved higher on Thursday, testing resistance levels as the dollar tumbling lower. The dollar declined as U.S. yields moved more down following a weaker than expected U.S. jobless claims report. Since the Fed is expected to keep rates lower for longer, yields at the long end of the interest rate curve have started to ease.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved higher following Wednesday’s respite in price action. Gold prices tested resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,763. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,725. Additional support is seen near the June lows at 1,670. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

U.S. Jobless Claims Rise More than Expected

U.S. jobless claims rose more than expected last week despite other healing signs in the jobs market. First-time claims for the week ended April 3 totaled 744,000, well above the expectation for 694,000. The total represented an increase of 16,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised 728,000. The four-week moving average edged higher to 723,750. Continuing claims provided some good news on the labor front, with the total dropping 16,000 to 3.73 million. That’s the lowest level for continuing claims since March 21, 2020.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Consolidate as the Dollar Gains Traction

Gold prices consolidated on Wednesday, after rising for two consecutive trading sessions to start the week. The dollar rebounded after testing lower levels which halted the upward momentum in the yellow metal. Yields moved lower and then rebounded late which also put a damper on the gold rally for the week. The FOMC said in their recent meeting minutes that policy will remain accommodative for the foreseeable future.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved lower and consolidated the weekly gains. Support is seen near the near the 20-day moving average at 1,729. Additional support is seen near the June lows at 1,670. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,763. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

FOMC Remains Accommodative

Federal Reserve officials indicated that policy will stay in place until it produces stronger employment and inflation, and won’t be adjusted based merely on forecasts. The FOMC minutes from the March 16-17 meeting as investors looked for indications about where policy may be heading in the future. FOMC members said the $120 billion a month in bond purchases were providing substantial support to the economy.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Rise as the Dollar Drops

 

Gold prices moved higher on Tuesday, bouncing from support and poised to test higher levels. This comes as the dollar moved lower helping to buoy the yellow metal. Yields moved lower which also helped buoy the yellow metal. The IMF also believes that world growth will continue to accelerate at a greater rate than expected in 2021.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices higher on Tuesday rebounded from support near the near the 10-day moving average at 1,722. Additional support is seen near the June lows at 1,670. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,767. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

The IMF See Great Growth in 2021

The IMF expects the world economy to grow 6% this year, the most since 1980, when it started tracking data on a comparable set of countries. That is an upgrade from a projection for 5.5% growth the IMF made in January. The U.S. and China, the world’s biggest economies, are driving the recovery. The U.S. economy is projected to expand 6.4% this year and regain its pre-pandemic size after an estimated contraction of 3.5% last year. The IMF earlier projected 5.1% growth in 2021. China’s economy is projected to expand 8.4% this year, up from an earlier forecast of 8.1%.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Continue to Trend Lower

Natural gas prices dropped nearly another 2% on Tuesday after falling 5% on Monday. The move comes as warmer than normal weather is expected to cover most of the United States for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. U.S. demand declines again week over week due to mild temperatures. The combination of warm weather and larger-than-expected injections is weighing on prices.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices dropped on Tuesday falling more than 2% after declining rapidly on Monday and pushing through support which is now resistance near the 10-day moving average at 2.57 which is now seen as resistance. Target support is seen near the March lows at 2.42. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

U.S. Demand Declines Because of Warmer Weather

U.S. demand declines again week over week due to mild temperatures. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 6.0% compared with the previous report week, according to data from the EIA. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed 1.4% week over week. Industrial sector consumption decreased 1.9% week over week. The largest decrease in consumption came from the residential and commercial sectors, where consumption declined by 17.1% due to above-average temperatures and low heating demand in the eastern United States for much of last report week.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Fall on Warm Weather

Natural gas prices dropped nearly 5% on Monday. The move comes as warmer than normal weather is expected to cover most of the United States for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. U.S. demand declines again week over week due to mild temperatures.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices dropped on Monday and pushing through support near the 10-day moving average at 2.57 which is now seen as resistance. Target support is seen near the March lows at 2.42. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal.

U.S. Demand Declined

U.S. demand declines again week over week due to mild temperatures. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 6.0% compared with the previous report week, according to data from the EIA. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed 1.4% week over week. Industrial sector consumption decreased 1.9% week over week. The largest decrease in consumption came from the residential and commercial sectors, where consumption declined by 17.1% due to above-average temperatures and low heating demand in the eastern United States for much of last report week.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Consolidate but Momentum Remains Positive

Gold prices moved sideways on Monday as riskier assets surged. The sideways movement in the yellow metal came despite a drop in the U.S. dollar. U.S. Yields also moved lower on Monday, despite a stronger than expected increase in economic services growth. The ISM reported a better than expected index along with rising prices.

Technical Analysis

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Technical analysis

Gold prices traded sideways after rebounded sharply last week. Prices remained above support near the 10-day moving average at 1,721. Additional support is seen near the June lows at 1,670. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,767. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

The ISM Services Rose More than Expected

The ISM’s services activity index, which makes up the bulk of the U.S. economy, rebounded to a reading of 63.7 in March due to warmer weather. That was the highest in the survey’s history and followed 55.3 in February. Expectations had been for the index to rise to 59.0 in March. The survey’s measure of prices paid by services industries jumped to the highest reading since July 2008. The surge in these price measures have added to concerns of higher inflation this year.

Organic Soybean Processors of America Takes On India in Antidumping Case

The Jacobsen is reporting, a new antidumping and countervailing duty petition was filed on March 31 by the Organic Soybean Processors of America; and several organic soybean crushers. The Petition includes less than fair value antidumping language and unfair subsidies allegations against India. The Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission will conduct the investigations. Within the next 45 days, the International Trade Commission will determine if there is a reasonable indication that the imports injure the U.S. industry. If the ITC finds that this standard is upheld, then the cases will move to the Department of Commerce, which will calculate the preliminary antidumping duty margins.

The Time Line

The Department of Commerce preliminary determinations are currently scheduled for June 24 for unfair subsidies and September 7 for antidumping, which are the dates when importers will be required to deposit the calculated duties upon the products’ entry into the U.S. market. There are strict deadlines for this procedure. According to The Jacobsen sources, several organic soybean exporters were contacted by the U.S. International Trade Commission on 3/31/21.

The complaint goes on to say that “Indian producers were able to offer these prices and capture this market share as a result of dumping and a series of subsidy programs that the Department, the Commission, and the World Trade Organization repeatedly have found to violate U.S. trade laws and multilateral trade agreements.”

The complaint discusses how organic soybean meal is used in the United States and the premiums that it can garner relatively to conventional soybean meal. Additionally, the complaint discussed the total actual demand for OSBM in the United States increased by a CAGR of 7% per year since 2014. The industry can crush approximately 550K metric tons of organic soybean meal per year. The Petitioner has alleged antidumping margins of 154.12% ad valorem and unfair subsidies above de minimis.

What is the Key Subject?

The U.S. International Trade Commission says that they consider if “there has been significant price underselling by the imported merchandise as compared with the price of domestic like products of the United States,” and also whether the effect of imports “otherwise depresses prices to a significant degree or prevents price increases, which otherwise would have occurred, to a significant degree.” The write-up says that U.S. prices of organic soybean meal have been consistently falling in a period when the demand has been increasing. The complainers have lost significant revenue because of the imports over the 2017-2020 period. The complaint says that 376K short tons of organic soybean meal sales were lost due to the imports.