US Stock Market Overview – Stock Rally as Biden is Inaugurated

U.S. stocks rallied on Wednesday as Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th U.S. President. Former President Donald Trump left the White House in the morning and did not attend President Biden’s inauguration. Most sectors in the S&P 500 index were higher, led by Communication and Real-Estate, Energy bucked the trend. Morgan Stanley reported better than expected earnings ahead of the bell driven by gains in trading. Last night after the closing bell, Netflix reported stellar earnings, which lifted its shares by 17.5%. Solid gains in other large cap tech shares helped lift the Nasdaq by more than 2%.

Biden Signs Executive Orders

Joe Biden will unwind several of the Trump executive orders on his first day in office. This will include implementing a national mask mandate on federal property, revoking a permit for the Keystone XL oil pipeline and reversing a travel ban from several Muslim and African countries.

Morgan Stanely reports Better than Expected Results

Morgan Stanely reported better than expected top line and bottom-line financial results. The company announced profits of $3.39 billion, or $1.81 a share. Revenue increased 26% to $13.64 billion. Both beat the consensus estimates of $1.30 on revenue of $11.58 billion. Trading revenue at Morgan Stanley rose 32% to $4.22 billion, a bigger jump than any other bank. Investment-banking fees increased 46% to $2.30 billion mostly due to $1 billion in revenue Morgan Stanley generated for underwriting initial public offerings and other stock offerings.

Yellen Takes Agreeable Tone

During here meeting for confirmation to the Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen agree with all of her questioners but pushed back on fiscal policy, saying there was a need for another large fiscal package.  The fiscal support is shaping up to be a key test for the Biden administration.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rebound but Momentum has Turned Negative

 

Natural gas prices were nearly unchanged on Wednesday after testing lower levels early in the trading session. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the weather is expected to be warmer than normal throughout the mid-west for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days. Supply fell in the latest week due to declines in dry natural gas production.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices rebounded from session lows and closing the session nearly unchanged. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.69. Support is seen near the December lows at 2.26. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line. Short-term omentum has also turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal.

Supply Declined

Supply fell because of declines in dry natural gas production. According to data from the EIA, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.8% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous report week. Average net imports from Canada increased by 2.0% from last week.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Rise in Tight Range as Momentum Turns Positive

 

Gold prices moved higher on Wednesday, as the dollar consolidated and U.S. yields remained stable. Gold volatility is also trading sideways, hovering near the 23% range. On Wednesday, the U.S. inaugurated a new President. Riskier assets moved higher, which helped buoy gold prices. Additionally, the commentary from likely Treasury secretary Janet Yellen shows that stimulus will be added and weigh on the dollar.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices rallied on Wednesday bouncing from an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,825. Resistance is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,939. While the trend is more of a consolidating, the 10-day moving average crossed below the 50-day moving average which means that a short-term downtrend is in place. Short-term momentum has reversed and turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 21, up from 18 and above the oversold trigger level. Medium-term negative momentum has decelerated as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the red with a rising trajectory, which points to consolidation.

Yellen Takes Agreeable Tone

During here meeting for confirmation to the Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen agree with all of her questioners but pushed back on fiscal policy, saying there was a need for another large fiscal package.  The fiscal support is shaping up to be a key test for the Biden administration.

US Stock Market Overview – Stock Rally Led by Energy and Technology

U.S. stocks moved higher on Tuesday, led by gains in the Nasdaq. Growth and value were both strong. Most S&P 500 index sectors were higher, led by gains in energy and technology, real-estate bucked the trend. Janet Yellen was on the hill testifying for her confirmation hearing in front of the senate. She said she would focus on the American worker if confirmed. U.S. Yields moved lower along with the dollar as crude oil prices moved higher. Netflix reported after the closing bell, beating expectations on the top and bottom line. The stock immediately popped more than 5%. The company said in a statement that they no longer will need to raise capital by external financing. Money will now go to stock buybacks. Goldman Sachs reported financial results before the opening bell. Gains in trading and investment banking drove the better than expected top and bottom line.

Yellen Hearing to Be Treasury Secretary was Held on Tuesday

Janet Yellen told lawmakers she would make the needs of America’s workers her core focus if confirmed as the next U.S. Treasury secretary. The former Chair of the Federal Reserve said that she would ensure the U.S. has a competitive economy that offers good jobs and wages workers in cities and rural areas.

Goldman Reported Better than Expected Results

Goldman Sach reported a profit of $4.51 billion in the Q4 or $12.08 per share, which was more than double Goldman’s profit from the same quarter a year ago. Both quarterly net income and quarterly revenue of $11.74 billion were much better than the expectations of of $7.39 a share on revenue of $9.99 billion.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Price Drop as Cold Weather Fails to Materialize

Natural gas prices broke down on Tuesday, as the cold weather that was expected to move into the U.S. failed to come about. While the weather is expected to be cooler than normal across the west coast over the next 6-10 days, its expected to turn warmer than normal across most of the mid-west during the next 8-14 days. The EIA estimates that natural gas consumption was down 2.5% year over year in 2020.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices broke down on Tuesday, declining 7%. Prices broke through and upward sloping trend line. Target support on the February contract is seen near the December lows at 2.26. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.70. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is poised to turn negative as the MACD is expected to create a crossover sell signal.

Consumption was Down in 2020

The EIA estimates that U.S. natural gas consumption averaged 83.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2020, down 2.5% from 2019. EIA expects that natural gas consumption will decline by 2.8% in 2021 and by 2.1% in 2022. Most of the decline in natural gas consumption is the result of less natural gas use in the power sector, which EIA forecasts to decline because of rising natural gas prices. These declines are partly offset by rising natural gas use in other sectors.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Consolidated Ahead of Biden Inauguration

Gold prices consolidated on Tuesday following the long U.S. holiday weekend. The range was less than $12 per ounce as the world awaits the U.S. Presidential inauguration on Wednesday. The dollar moved lower, helping to buoy the yellow metal as U.S. yields took a hiatus from moving higher. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that President Trump provoked the mob that stormed the Capitol earlier this month, casting blame on the violent attack president.

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Technical analysis

On Tuesday, gold prices consolidated, holding just above an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,825. A close below this level would lead to a test of the November lows at 1,764. Short-term momentum has reversed and turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 18, below the oversold trigger level of 20. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) line generated a crossover sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory, which points to lower prices.

Yellen Hearing to Be Treasury Secretary was Held on Tuesday

Janet Yellen told lawmakers she would make the needs of America’s workers her core focus if confirmed as the next U.S. Treasury secretary. The former Chair of the Federal Reserve said that she would ensure the U.S. has a competitive economy that offers good jobs and wages workers in cities and rural areas.

US Stock Market Overview – Stocks Close Lower; Led Down by Energy; Retail Sales Disappoints

U.S. stocks moved lower on Friday, as weak retail sales weighed on sentiment. Most sectors in the S&P 500 index were lower, driven down by Energy shares, Utilities bucked the trend. For the second consecutive month, retail sales were negative and more fragile than expected. The spending seen in mid-2020 was driven by a stimulus that is now on deck for the Biden administration. Producer prices rose in December and were buoyed by energy and food. The bid banks kicked off the earnings season on Friday. J.P. Morgan was the standout, but the financial sector fell as traders appear to be taking profits.

Retail Sales Fall

U.S. retail sales dropped in  December as lockdowns to battle the spread of COVID-19 undercut spending. According to the U.S. Commerce Department, Retail sales dropped 0.7% last month. November was revised down to show sales declining 1.4% instead of 1.1% as previously reported. Expectations had been for retail sales to be unchanged in December.

Core retail sales were also lower. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales tumbled 1.9% last month after a downwardly revised 1.1% decline in November. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. They were previously estimated to have decreased by 0.5% in November.

U.S. producer prices increased in December. According to the Labor Department, U.S. Producer price index increased 0.3% in December after nudging up 0.1% in November. In the 12 months through December, the PPI rose 0.8%, matching November’s gain. Excluding food, and energy, producer prices increased 0.4%. The core PPI inched up 0.1% in November. In the 12 months through November, the core PPI gained 1.1% after rising 0.9% in November.

JP Morgan Chase Beats

J.P. Morgan Chase reported profits of $12.14 billion or $3.79 per share, better than expected. The bank reported $29.22 billion for the quarter in revenue, up 3% from a year earlier, also topping analysts’ expectations for $28.67 billion. JPMorgan posted a record revenue of $119.54 billion, up 4% from 2019. The growth was powered by trading as clients were eager to raise capital and trade securities amid a troubled economy and record-high markets.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise on Colder Weather Forecast

 

Natural gas prices moved higher on Friday, recovering Thursday’s losses following a larger than expected draw in natural gas inventories. The weather is expected to become colder than normal throughout the United States’ northern portion, potentially bringing a ridge trough pattern that would bring cold weather. Natuaral gas production is expected to fall 2% in 2021 according to the latest Short-term energy outlook from the EIA.

Technical analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher  on Friday, recovering back through the 10-day moving average near 2.71. The resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 2.74. Short-term momentum has reversed and turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal.. Medium-term positive momentum is decelerating. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

U.S. Prodution will Decline in 2021

EIA estimates that the annual U.S. gas production for 2021 will fall 2% and average 96.2 billion cubic feet per day. However, in 2022, EIA estimates that natural gas production will rise by 2% compared with year-ending 2021 production of 98.2 Bcf per day, accompanied by rising natural gas prices. The United States set annual natural gas production records in 2018 and 2019, largely based on increased drilling in shale and tight oil formations. This increased production led to higher volumes of natural gas in storage and decreased natural gas prices. In 2020, the supply and demand contraction resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in marketed natural gas production decreasing by 2% from 2019 levels.

Gold Price Prediction – Price Slide as the Dollar Rallies Despite Weak U.S. Retail Sales

 

Gold prices dropped on Friday as the dollar gained traction while U.S. yields fell. This decline followed a weaker than expected U.S. retail sales report and December PPI, which was in line with expectations. After breaking out earlier in the month, gold prices have reversed course and are poised to test target support.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices slide on Friday and are testing an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,825. A close below this level would lead to a test of the November lows at 1,764. Short-term momentum has reversed and turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 16, below the oversold trigger level of 20. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) line generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory, which points to lower prices. The RSI also broke down which reflects accelerating negative momentum.

Retail Sales Fall

U.S. retail sales dropped in  December as lockdowns to battle the spread of COVID-19 undercut spending. According to the U.S. Commerce Department, Retail sales dropped 0.7% last month. Data for November was revised down to show sales declining 1.4% instead of 1.1% as previously reported. Expectations had been for retail sales to be unchanged in December.

U.S. Stock Market Overview – Stocks Consolidate Ahead of Biden Speach

U.S. stocks moved lower on Thursday. Sectors in the S&P 500 index were mixed, led by gains in Energy, the interest-rate sensitive utility sector underperformed. Rates moved higher and the dollar was flat along with gold. President-elect Joe Biden is expected to unveil details on his proposed spending package to support the U.S. economy. Many investors are counting on additional stimulus to help make ends meet, given the pandemic’s damaging impact. Unemployment claims an unexpected rose. Blackrock delivered better than expected financial results, ahead of Friday’s bank earning release deluge. Jerome Powell was on the tape today, saying he won’t raise rates to combat higher grain and energy prices.

Unemployment Claims Unexpected Rose

According to the Labor Department, U.S. jobless claims rose by 181,000 to 965,000 last week. That was the most significant weekly increase since March 2020 and put initial jobless claims at their highest level since mid-August. It also put weekly claims well above the roughly 800,000 a week they have averaged in recent months. Additionally, continuing claims rose to nearly 5.3 million for the week ended January 2, from 5.1 million a week earlier. That marked the first weekly increase since November.

Blackrock Delivers on Top and Bottom Line

BlackRock’s financial results showed profits rose 19% as investors turned to the money-management giant’s funds through election uncertainty. The investment company posted Q4 profit of $1.5 billion, or $10.02 a share, up from $1.3 billion, or $8.29 a share, a year earlier. BlackRock’s revenue rose 13% to about $4.5 billion in Q4.

Powell Takes Dovish Tone

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell affirmed his commitment to keeping interest rates low. Powell said the Fed is nowhere near a point where they could consider raising interest rates. During the discussion, Powell spoke about how the Fed handled the challenges brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slide Despite Inventory Draw

Natural gas prices moved lower on Thursday despite a larger than expected draw in natural gas stockpiles. The weather is expected to be cooler than average on the western half of the U.S. and normal to warmer than average on the east coast of the United States. President-Elect Biden is expected to give a speech in the evening in the United States that will outline his stimulus plan. This could be an impetus to help prices gain traction.

Technical analysis

Natural gas prices moved lower on Thursday, breaking through support near trend line resistance that coincides with the 10-day moving average near 2.68. Target support on natural gas is seen near the January lows at 2.60. The resistance which is former support is the 10-day moving average and then the 50-day moving average at 2.74. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 63, down from 70, which reflects accelerating negative momentum. Medium-term positive momentum is decelerating. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

natural gas

 

Inventories Declined More than Expected

Natural gas in storage was 3,196 Bcf as of Friday, January 8, 2021, according to the EIA. This represents a net decrease of 134 Bcf from the previous week. Expectation were for a 131 Bcf draw according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 126 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 218 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,978 Bcf. At 3,196 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Trade Sideways Despite Weak Claims Data

Gold prices continued to consolidate as the dollar began to slip. The dollar gained traction as the 10-year yield retraced some of its recent gains. U.S. Jobless claims grew more than expected, which put downward pressure on yields. Jerome Powell did a live interview saying that the Fed would not raise rates to curtail the rise in inflation from grain and oil prices. Germany reported that 2020 GDP contracted by about 5% last year.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved sideways, again running into resistance near the  50-day moving average near 1,865. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,815.  Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 23, just above the overbought trigger level of 20. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) line generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory, which points to lower prices.

Unemployment Claims Unexpected Rose

According to the Labor Department, U.S. jobless claims rose by 181,000 to 965,000 last week. That was the most significant weekly increase since March 2020 and put initial jobless claims at their highest level since mid-August. It also put weekly claims well above the roughly 800,000 a week they have averaged in recent months. Additionally, continuing claims rose to nearly 5.3 million for the week ended January 2, from 5.1 million a week earlier. That marked the first weekly increase since November.

US Stock Market Overview – Stock Close Mixed as House Moves Toward Impeachment

U.S. stocks were mixed on Wednesday, as the House of Representatives Prepared to impeach President Donald Trump for the second time. This impeachment will make Donald Trump the only President in U.S. history to be impeached twice. Despite this effort, there will not be a trial while Donald Trump is in office. Senate leader McConnell said he wouldn’t convene Senate early for a trial. This means the Senate will not come back into session until the day before President-Elect Biden’s inauguration. Sectors in the S&P 500 index were mixed, led higher by interest-rate sensitive Utility and real estate, and energy shares were the worst-performing sector. CPI rose in line with expectations. Oil prices moved lower following the Energy Departments’ report on inventories. U.S. interest rates declined for the first time this week.

U.S. CPI Rises In Line with Expectations

U.S. consumer prices rose in December, driven by gains in gasoline, though underlying inflation remained tame. According to the Labor Department, its consumer price index increased 0.4% last month after gaining 0.2% in November. On a year over year basis, the CPI advanced 1.4% after rising 1.2% in November. Both the month over month and year over year reports were in line with expectations. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI edged up 0.1% after climbing 0.2% in November. The core CPI was restrained by decreases in the prices of used cars and trucks, recreation, airfares and health care. The core CPI gained 1.6% year-on-year, matching November’s rise. It increased by 1.6% in 2020 after rising 2.3% in 2019.

The House Prepares for Impeachment Vote

The House of Representatives started debating whether the United States President should be impeached for a second time. House Speak Nancy Pelosi said that the President must go. He is a clear and present danger to the nation. Pelosi went on to say that she believes the Senate must convict the President, a constitutional remedy that will ensure that the republic will be safe from this man who is so resolutely determined to tear down the bedrock of the United States.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slip Ahead of Inventory Numbers

Natural gas prices moved lower on Wednesday ahead of the Energy Department report on inventories.  Warmer than average weather forecast to cover most of the U.S. over the next two weeks. On Thursday, the Energy Department will release its inventory report. Expectations are for a 131 Bcf draw in stockpiles according to survey provider Estimize. U.S. exports rose to a new record in December

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved lower on Wednesday, consolidating the recent gains.  Prices moved back below support, which is now resistance near the 50-day moving average at 2.77. Target resistance is seen near the late November highs near 2.98. Medium-term momentum remains positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory, which points to higher prices. The RSI turned over, reflecting consolidation.

Exports Rise to Record Highs

U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas set a new record in December after a record-breaking November 2020, averaging 9.8 billion cubic feet per day. In December, U.S. LNG exports were more than three times higher than the reduced export levels in the summer of 2020.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Consolidate Follow In Line CPI

Gold prices continued to consolidate on Wednesday after hitting resistance. The dollar gained traction as the 10-year yield retraced some of its recent gains. U.S. CPI rose in line with expectations, according to the Labor Department. The House of Representatives moved forward with a vote on the second impeachment of President Donald Trump.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved sideways, consolidating, unable to gain headway, and running into resistance near the  50-day moving average near 1,867. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,815.  Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic continues to accelerate lower. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) line generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory, which points to lower prices.

U.S. CPI Rises

U.S. consumer prices rose in December, driven by gains in gasoline, though underlying inflation remained tame. According to the Labor Department, its consumer price index increased 0.4% last month after gaining 0.2% in November. On a year over year basis, the CPI advanced 1.4% after rising 1.2% in November. Both the month over month and year over year reports were in line with expectations. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI edged up 0.1% after climbing 0.2% in November.

US Stock Market Overview – Stocks Rally Led by Energy; Communications Buck the Trend

 

U.S. stocks moved higher on Tuesday rebounded from Monday’s losses. Energy shares were the best performing sector in the S&p 500 index, as oil prices continued to rise. Communications bucked the trend. President Trump denied any wrongdoing as House Republicans wrestled with how to respond to accusations he incited last week’s violence at the Capitol, with some proposing censure and others open to Democrats’ move to impeach him. Americans spent a record amount only on gifts during the holiday season. General Motels unveiled an all-electric van that is being built under its new Brightdrop Brand. The Trump administration is releasing second doses of coronavirus vaccines held back for booster shots and is urging states to administer the vaccine to anyone over age 65. U.S. Treasury yields continue to back up, hitting 1.18, the highest level since April. Corn prices busted out, following a report from the WASDE that showed a smaller than expected carryover of corn from the prior year. Soybean prices also shot up on bullish news.

American’s Spend a Record on Online Sales

U.S. online purchases during the holiday season surged 32.2% from 2019, totaling a record $188.2 billion according to Adobe Analytics. During November, E-commerce sales included Black Friday and Cyber Monday, reached $100 billion for the first time. Groceries, appliances and books surged in popularity around the holidays, while online sales of toys were up 50% from 2019, and the jewelry category was up 66%.

Low-Interest Rates Fuel Muni Bond Issuance

Municipal bond issuance in 2020 was the highest in a decade, reflecting the collapse of interest rates and the increased costs cities and state governments are facing from Covid-19 shutdowns. The muni issuance boom is unlikely to abate as cash-strapped local governments struggle to make up for ongoing Covid-19-related shortfalls.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise Despite Warm Weather Ahead of Inventory Report

 

Natural gas prices moved higher on Tuesday despite a normal to warmer than normal weather forecast that will not likely help demand. Prices appear to be moving higher in sympathy with oil prices. On Thursday, the Energy Department will release its inventory report. Expectations are for a 131 Bcf draw in stockpiles according to survey provider Estimize. U.S. LNG exports declined week over week.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher on Tuesday but closed off the highs of the trading session. Prices recapture resistance, which is now support near the 50-day moving average at 2.77. Resistance is seen near the late November highs near 2.98. Medium-term momentum remains positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices. The RSI also broke out hitting the highest level since October which reflects accelerating positive momentum.

LNG Exports Decline

U.S. LNG exports decrease week over week. According to the EIA, Twenty one LNG vessels with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 77 Bcf departed the United States between December 31, 2020 and January 6, 2021.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Consolidate as Inflation Trends Higher

Gold prices continued to consolidate on Tuesday, unable to make headway going higher and hitting resistance. The dollar started to ease after rallying Monday as the 10-year yield edged slightly higher. Oil and food prices are moving higher, which is a sign of inflation that puts downward pressure on U.S. treasury prices. U.S. health officials are releasing second doses of coronavirus vaccines that had been held back for booster shots and administering the vaccine to anyone over age 65 and people with pre-existing health conditions. Online sales surged to the highest level on record during the holiday season in the U.S.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved sideways, consolidating, unable to gain headway and running into resistance near the  50-day moving average near 1,867. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,815.  Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic continues to accelerate lower. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 18, below the oversold trigger level of 20, foreshadowing a correction. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) line generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory, which points to lower prices.

American’s Spend a Record on Online Sales

U.S. online purchases during the holiday season surged 32.2% from 2019, totaling a record $188.2 billion according to Adobe Analytics. During November, E-commerce sales included Black Friday and Cyber Monday, reached $100 billion for the first time. Groceries, appliances and books surged in popularity around the holidays, while online sales of toys were up 50% from 2019, and the jewelry category was up 66%.

US Stock Market Overview – Stocks Drop but Close off the Lows

U.S. Stocks moved lower on Monday, driven down by the Nasdaq, which underperformed the other major indices. Most S&P 500 index sectors were lower, paced by Real-estate and technology; energy shares bucked the trend. House Democrats introduced articles of impeachment on President Trump following last week’s attack on the Capitol. Parler, a social media app, sued Amazon for removing the app from its cloud service. On Monday, The Supreme Court rejected a plea by President Donald Trump and his allies to get the court to quickly consider challenges to President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in the November election. Bitcoin prices as well as Ether dropped sharply on Monday, finally correcting after surging for most of December and early January. Bitcoin prices at their lows were down 15%. Ether dropped more than 25%. The dollar rose along with U.S. yields which weighed on cryptocurrencies and precious metals. Oil prices were nearly unchanged on the day.

Technology Underperforms

Technology heavyweights underperformed the broader market as many of the social media giants removed President Trump’s access following the Capitol’s storming by his supporters. The riot, planned and discussed on social media, is expected to spur Congressional efforts to regulate big tech. Twitter permanently suspended President Trump. Facebook has indefinitely suspended President Trump, while Apple, Amazon.com and Alphabet’s Google slashed support for the social-media app Parler. Twitter removed Mr. Trump’s personal account, citing the risk of further incitement of violence.

House Democrats Introduce Articles of Impeachment

Democrats in the House of Representatives introduced an impeachment article against President Trump, accusing him of inciting an insurrection. The House will vote Tuesday on a measure calling for Vice President Pence to use the 25th amendment to remove Trump from office within 24 hours before beginning impeachment proceedings.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Close Unchanged forming Doji Day

Natural gas prices consolidated on Monday forming a doji day. This came as supply rose in the latest week. According to NOAA, the weather is expected to be normal to warmer than normal across most of the United States for the next 2-weeks.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices were unchanged, forming a doji day where the open and close were at the same level, reflecting indecision. Prices tested support near the 10-day moving average at 2.58 and rebounded. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 2.78. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.56. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover buy signal.

Supply rises in Latest Week

According to the EIA, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 0.2% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.3% compared with the previous report week. Average net imports from Canada increased by 6.0% from last week.