EUR/USD Is Plunging

Investors are not so focused on statistics as before due to inflamed geopolitical tensions in the world. However, there will be some interesting reports that shouldn’t be overlooked.

For example, the US labour market data for February, which is usually published early in a month. The Unemployment Rate is expected to drop to 3.8-3.9% after being 4.0% the month before. The Non-Farm Payroll may increase due to the removal of anti-coronavirus restrictions. This is good news for the “greenback”.

In the H4 chart, having finished another correctional wave at 1.1270 along with the descending structure towards 1.1168, EUR/USD is consolidating around the latter level. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume falling with the target at 1.1060 and then grow to reach 1.1400; if to the upside – start another growth towards 1.1230 and then form a new descending structure to reach the above-mentioned target. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is falling towards new lows.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after rebounding from 1.1270, EUR/USD is forming a new descending impulse and has already reached 1.1160; right now, it is consolidating around the latter level. Possibly, the pair may correct towards 1.1200 and then start a new decline to reach 1.1070. Later, the market may grow to test 1.1170 from below and then resume trading downwards with the target at 1.1060. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 20 and may continue growing to reach 50. Later, the line may rebound from 20 and start a new decline to return to 20.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD is Saving Strength for Future

At the same time, there is a local demand for the “greenback” at times of geopolitical escalations. Investors use the American currency as a “safe haven” asset.

Later this week, there will be some interesting macroeconomic reports, for example, the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2021, and also the data on durable goods orders and personal spending/income.

In addition to that, financial markets remain very sensitive to any comments that come from politicians.

In the H4 chart, having finished another descending wave at 1.1313 along with the correction towards 1.1360, EUR/USD is consolidating below the latter level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may start another growth towards 1.1404 and then resume falling to break 1.1330.

After that, the instrument may continue trading downwards to reach 1.1255 and then form one more ascending wave with the target at 1.1500. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is growing to break 0 and then continue moving towards new highs.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after rebounding from 1.1313, EUR/USD is forming a new ascending impulse and may soon reach 1.1360. After that, the asset is expected to consolidate around the latter level and break the range upwards to reach 1.1390. Later, the market may resume falling to return to 1.1360 and then start another growth towards 1.1404.

In the future, the instrument may form a new descending wave with the target at 1.1330. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 80 and may resume falling to reach 50. Later, the line may rebound from 50 and start a new growth to return to 80.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Consolidates in Mid-February

Investors are still impressed by the January inflation data from the US. The CPI showed 7.5% y/y – the reading no one has seen in over 40 years. Inflation higher than expected gives the US Fed the ground to raise the rate and reduce its own balance quickly and without any limitations.

On Monday, the Fed is planning to have a meeting and discuss the reserve rate and other aspects. However, the regulator is not expected to discuss the benchmark rate so far.

The thing that intrigues market players the most is the number of rate hikes in 2022. As of now, consensus projections suggest from 4 to 6.

In the H4 chart, having finished another descending wave at 1.1316, EUR/USD is expected to start a new correction towards 1.1370. After that, the instrument may resume falling to reach 1.1280 or even extend this wave down to 1.1255. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is falling below 0 and may continue moving towards new lows.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after rebounding from 1.1417, EUR/USD is forming the second descending structure to break 1.1316 and may later correct towards 1.1370. After that, the instrument may resume falling with the target at 1.1310 or even extend this structure down to 1.1255. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 20 and may continue growling to reach 50. Later, the line may rebound from 50 and resume falling to reach 20.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Took a Break

Last Friday, financial markets got additional signals in favour of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve System in the nearest future.

The Unemployment Rate in the US showed 4% in January after being 3.9% the month before. This might be an adjustment for seasonal fluctuation because the decline was not critical. The Non-Farm Payrolls report showed 467K after being 510K in December and against the expected reading of 110K.

The Average Hourly Earnings added 0.7% m/m, which turned out to be better than expected.

In the H4 chart, having finished another ascending wave at 1.1480 along with the descending impulse towards 1.1410, EUR/USD has completed the correction to reach 1.1460; right now, it is falling to break 1.1410 and reach the short-term target at 1.1355. After that, the instrument may correct to test 1.1410 from below and then trade downwards with the first target at 1.1342. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving towards 0. After this level is broken, the correction in the price chart may continue.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after rebounding from 1.1463, EUR/USD is forming the second descending structure to break 1.1410 and may later continue trading downwards with the target at 1.1355. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 20 and may continue growling to reach 50. Later, the line may rebound from 50 and resume falling to reach 20.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

Crude Oil Is Going for A Record

The key trigger that pushes the rally is that investors remain confident of the supply shortage in the commodity market. It was suggested earlier that the demand might become surplus in 2022 but there are no reasons for that so far.

Another factor that makes the oil price rise is the escalation in the Middle East with explosions in Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. They raise concerns about future oil deliveries and help the commodity market to go higher.

As a result, the market remains bullish and bullish only.

In the H4 chart, having completed the ascending structure at 88.85 along with the correction down to 85.00, Brent has rebounded from the latter level; right now, it is trading upwards with the target at 93.00. After that, the instrument may correct to return to 88.85 and then form another ascending structure to reach 95.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 0 inside the histogram area, thus indicating a further uptrend in the price chart.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after forming a new consolidation range around 90.15 and breaking it to the upside, Brent has reached the short-term target at 91.40. Today, the asset may continue growing towards 91.63 and then correct to return to 90.15. Later, the market may resume trading upwards with the target at 93.00. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: after breaking 50 to the upside, its signal line is expected to continue growing and reach 80. Later, it may resume falling to reach 20.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

USD May Be in Demand

This week, market players will focus their attention on the US Fed session. It would be hard to overestimate the importance of this event. The entire financial world is expecting the American regulator to provide any hints at what the Fed is planning to do in March: raise the benchmark interest rate, announce the number of rate hikes in 2022, speak about the time of its balance reduction.

One may assume that in anticipation of the Fed’s comments and decisions investors will save their strengths and remain calm.

In the H4 chart, EUR/USD has finished another ascending wave at 1.1390; right now, it is correcting towards 1.1317 and may later form a new consolidation range near the lows. After that, the instrument may break the range to the upside and form one more ascending structure towards 1.1358 or even higher, to reach the first target at 1.1428.

From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving towards 0. After breaking this level, it may continue trading to reach new highs.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after completing the descending correction at 1.1317, EUR/USD is consolidating around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form another ascending structure to break 1.1358. After that, the instrument may continue trading upwards with the short-term target at 1.1411. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: after breaking 20, its signal line is growing to reach and break 50, thus boosting the price growth in the price chart.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Crude Oil is Heading Towards Highs

So, the oil is trading close to its 7-year highs and market players are focused on nothing but positive news. On one hand, the oil price is supported by the fact that investors are absolutely sure of the stable and strong demand for energies. Some OPEC+ members are really behind the previously approved oil extraction plans – this is another reason for buying oil right now. on the other hand, Libya is back to its normal pace of oil production after repairing the pipelines. In addition to that, the rumour has it that China will sell oil from its strategic resources closer to the Lunar New Year. This news is rather negative for the commodity market.

Last Friday’s report from Baker Hughes showed that the Oil Rig Count in the US added 11 units, up to 492. The same happened in Canada, with +43 units.

In the H4 chart, having completed the ascending structure at 83.96 and broken this level, Brent continues trading upwards. Today, the asset may reach 87.55 and then start a new correction towards 80.00. Later, the market may form another ascending structure with the target at 91.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 0 inside the histogram area, thus indicating a further uptrend in the price chart.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after forming a new consolidation range around 84.12 and breaking it to the upside, Brent continues growing with the short-term target at 87.65. After that, the instrument may correct to return to 84.12 and then resume growing with the target at 91.00. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving upwards to break 50 and may later continue growing to reach 80.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Keep Falling

Market players are still processing the FOMC Meeting Minutes published last Wednesday. The document says that the benchmark interest rate may be raised sooner than expected earlier due to constantly increasing inflation. It also mentions that the QE programme may be closed as early as March instead of June as it was announced in the past.

Investors also paid attention to the regulator’s comments that it didn’t exclude a possibility of decreasing its own balance right after the rate hike. In fact, it may happen in the first half of 2022, which means that the liquidity ratio will drop.

In the H4 chart, EUR/USD has finished another ascending wave at 1.1363. Possibly, today the pair may correct to reach 1.1310 and then grow towards 1.1333, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume growing towards 1.1400; if to the downside – start a new decline with the target at 1.1200. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 0 and may later resume falling to return to this level.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after completing the ascending wave at 1.1361 and rebounding from this level, EUR/USD is correcting and the first correctional wave is expected to reach 1.1310. Later, the market may grow towards 1.1333. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 20, thus indicating a further downtrend in the price chart.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Brent is Consolidating

However, in January 2022, global tendencies may force oil prices to go down. First of all, it’s a disposition towards the oil supply surplus, which may occur early in the year and will become a trend for the whole 12 months. Secondly, the pandemic didn’t go anywhere: during the Christmas holidays, a lot of flights in the US were cancelled due to a possible upsurge in the number of new coronavirus cases.

On 4 January, OPEC+ will have another meeting and the cartel is highly likely to keep the current output parameters for February intact. The total daily output will increase by 400 thousand barrels every month.

In fact, the supply is already significantly increasing while the demand remains stable.

In the H4 chart, after rebounding from 74.00, Brent is growing towards 80.00 and forming the third wave within the uptrend; right now, the asset is correcting and may reach 74.65. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards to reach 80.00 and then start another correction to return to 74.65. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to break 80.00 and then continue growing with the short-term target at 85.00.

From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 0 inside the histogram area, thus indicating a further uptrend in the price chart, while the line may continue its movement to reach new highs.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after forming a new consolidation range around 74.60 and breaking it to the upside, Brent continues trading upwards and has already reached 76.83. Today, the asset may correct to test 74.63 from above and then resume growing with the target at 85.00. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving at 20. Later, the line may rebound from this level and move upwards to break 50. After that, it may continue growing to reach 80.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Got Under Pressure

Coronavirus-related fears are once again ruling the world. After Bloomberg reported a possibility of new anti-COVID restrictions in Europe, the Netherlands-style, many investors rushed off to “safe haven” assets to avoid risks.

Is Europe likely to introduce more lockdowns? No one should exclude this possibility and this fact provides the “greenback” with huge support, keeping the demand for the American currency quite high.

Another thing in favour of the USD is the Fed’s intention to quickly taper the QE programme and start discussing the rate hike as early as June 2022.

In the H4 chart, EUR/USD is correcting downwards to reach 1.1200 and may later consolidate there. If the price breaks the range to the upside, the market may start a new growth with the target at 1.1291. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 0 and may later continue falling towards new lows.

As we can see in the H1 chart, EUR/USD is forming another descending structure with the short-term at 1.1213 and may later start a new correction towards 1.1280. After that, the instrument may resume falling and finish this descending wave at 1.1200. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 80, which means that the asset may complete the ascending structure soon and the line may continue its movement to reach new lows.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Doesn’t Care About Statistics

Last Friday’s statistics on the US Consumer Price Index were not surprising, although a bit unusual. The indicator skyrocketed to 6.8% y/y in November. On MoM, inflation was 0.8% against the expected reading of 0.7%.

Based on the latest inflation reports, among other things, the US Fed may announce its decision to speed up the closure of its QE programme by at least fifty per cent. In this case, the programme may be щук as early as March 2022 and the Fed may start discussing the rate hike in May.

Investors believe that the regulator may raise the rate by 50 basis points next year.

In the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading downwards to reach 1.1120 and may later consolidate there. If the price breaks the range to the upside, the market may start a new correction with the target at 1.1363. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 0 and may later continue falling towards new lows.

As we can see in the H1 chart, EUR/USD is forming another descending structure to break 1.1243 and may later continue falling with the short-term target at 1.1166. After that, the instrument may correct to return to 1.1243 and then resume falling towards 1.1100. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 20, thus implying further decline towards new lows.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

US Dollar is Rising Again

Last Friday’s statistics on the US labour market for November were rather mixed. However, the ISM and PMI data may help the market to recapture the positive tendency.

The Unemployment Rate in the US dropped from 4.6% in October to 4.2% in November. At the same time, the Average Hourly Earnings added only 0.3% m/m, less than expected. The Non-Farm Employment Change was really disappointing and showed 210K after being 546K the month before and against the expected reading of 553K.

The numbers are very mixed: the labour market may have slowed down the job creation process, but only the December data will show whether it is accidental or regular.

These mixed signals from the labour market are quite unlikely to prevent the US Fed from deciding in favour of a more active QE program closure during its meeting scheduled for 15 December.

In the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading downwards to reach 1.1247 and may later consolidate there. If later the price breaks the range to the downside, the market may resume falling towards 1.1116. After that, the instrument may start a new correction to return to 1.1247 and then resume falling with the target at 1.1110. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving to break 0 and may later continue falling towards new lows.

As we can see in the H1 chart, EUR/USD is forming the third descending wave; it has already completed the first wave at 1.1266 along with the correction towards 1.1326. At the moment, the asset is falling to reach 1.1250 and may later form a new consolidation range as a downside continuation pattern. If the price breaks the range to the downside, the market may resume falling with the short-term target at 1.1140 and then form one more descending structure to reach 1.1111. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 20, thus implying a fourth

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Brent Is Under Severe Stress

The reason for that is the new coronavirus strain found in South Africa, which has much more mutations than any other before it. The strain is believed to be very aggressive and may complicate the current epidemiological situation. Many countries started sealing their borders from any contact with South African countries. Israel, for example, forbade the country from foreigners. Under such circumstances, a possibility of new lockdowns is not in favour of the commodity market: the demand for energies may plummet.

At the moment, market players are switching their attention to the December meeting of OPEC+. Maybe this time the cartel and its allies will take a break and put the 400K daily output increase in January on hold. Under current conditions, it would be a great relief for the commodity market.

In the H4 chart, completing the descending wave at 71.40 and finishing the correction, Brent is growing with the first target at 82.40. After that, the asset may start a new correction to reach 77.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving near the lows within the histogram area. Later, the line is expected to leave the area and grow towards 0.

As we can see in the H1 chart, Brent s forming the first ascending structure and may soon reach 77.53. Later, the market may correct towards 74.33 and then resume trading upwards with the first target at 82.52. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: after breaking 50 to the upside, its signal line is expected to test this level and then resume growing to reach 80.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Japanese Yen is Falling a Bit

The latest comments from the Japanese government are really worth paying attention to: the country’s authorities approved a new stimulus package to support the economy worth ¥79 trillion, which includes the fiscal spending of around ¥56 trillion. The money is expected to go to small and medium-sized businesses and mitigate the consequences of fuel price hikes.

On paper, the new stimulus program is intended for pushing the country’s GDP growth: the government is expecting the indicator to add 5.6%, its plan is to smooth the economic situation and revive the economy first and turn to the budget issues later.

It’s clear that the stimulus extension will lead to the same in the national debt, but the Japanese authorities do not consider this issue as the most important right now.

As we can see in the H4 chart, after completing the ascending wave at 114.96 along with the correction towards 113.60, USD/JPY is forming another ascending structure to break 114.96 and may later continue growing with the target at 116.00. After that, the instrument may correct towards 114.90 and then resume trading upwards to reach 116.40. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is growing to reach 0, a breakout of which may lead to further growth towards new highs.

In the H1 chart, after completing the descending structure at 113.63 along with the ascending impulse towards 114.00, USD/JPY is consolidating around the latter level. Possibly, the asset may break the range to the upside and reach 114.72. Later, the market may correct towards 114.00 and then resume trading upwards with the short-term target at 115.87. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 50 and may later continue growing towards 80.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Brent Looks Weaker Than Usual

The latest statistics from Baker Hughes showed that the Oil Rig Count added 4 units over the week and now equals 454. It’s a pretty bearish signal – the drilling activity in the US is accelerating, which may result in higher output, hence an excessive supply.

The latest report from the United States Department of Energy says that the oil extraction in the fourth quarter of 2021 will add 0.3 million bpdб while the total daily output will reach 11.6 million bpd. If everything goes as planned, the DoE will adjust its forecast once again in December.

This week, the International Energy Agency is scheduled to publish its forecasts on the supply and demand – oil investors are ready to respond.

In the H4 chart, after rebounding from 85.85, Brent is still falling towards 79.00 and may later start a new correction to test 82.85 from below. After that, the asset may form a new descending structure to reach 77.55 and then start another growth with the target at 90.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 0 within the histogram area, which implies a descending wave on the price chart. After this wave is over, the line is expected to grow towards 0.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after forming a new consolidation range around 82.82, Brent has expanded it to the downside. In fact, this range should be considered as a downside continuation pattern. Possibly, the asset may reach 79.63 and then start a new correction to return to 82.82. Later, the market may resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 79.00.

From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 20, which implies a further downtrend on the price chart. After the price reaches the above-mentioned short-term target, the line may resume growing towards 50.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Resigned to Pressure

According to statistics, the unemployment rate in October dropped to 4.6%, which is quite good. Average hourly wage over the reporting period increased by 0.4% m/m, which is a great result. The NFP in October grew above the expected – by 531 thousand.

On the whole, the employment statistics was positive, which supported the dollar. However, it felt quite confident earlier: the results of the Fed conference in November went according the expectations. The Fed cut down on stimulation as forecast.

On H4, EUR/USD performed a wave of decline to 1.1514 and a correction to 1.1560. The correction might continue to 1.1626. When it is over, the next wave of decline should continue, aiming at 1.1480. The goal is local. Then we expect a link of growth to 1.1560. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD: its signal line is trading below zero. Today, the indicator signals a possible correction. When it is over, we expect the signal lines renew next lows.

On H1, EUR/USD bounces off 1.1615 and performed another link of a declining wave to 1.1514. Today the market has performed a correction to 1.1558 and at the moment is trading in the consolidation range. With an escape upwards, a pathway to 1.1605 (at least) will open. With an escape downwards, trend will continue to 1.1480. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is trading above 50. We expect growth to 80. Then the indicator might drop to 20.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Gold is Too Much Affected By USD

On Monday, 1 November 2021, the troy ounce costs $1,788. Gold has been rather volatile recently and definitely shows an inverse correlation to the USD.

It’s safe to say now that the Gold price will fluctuate pretty much this week in anticipation of the US Fed meeting. The regulator is slowly moving towards the reduction of the QE programme but this factor has already been included in the “greenback” price. If the Fed announces the QE reduction and hints at some more fiscal moves in the future, Gold may rise.

A lot of attention is currently paid to American inflation. If the CPI and its components continue growing, the demand for Gold as a “safe haven” asset will surely expand. The inflation rally calls into question the rate and prospects of economic growth and that won’t make market players happy.

As we can see in the H4 chart, after completing the correctional wave at 1774.05 along with the ascending structure towards 1781.10, XAU/USD is expected to start another decline to reach 1763.81. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the target at 1830.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving downwards below 0 inside the histogram area. Later, the indicator is expected to continue falling towards new lows.

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In the H1 chart, Gold has finished the descending wave at 1772.00 along with the ascending structure towards 1787.60. Possibly, the metal may form a new consolidation range below the latter level. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume falling to reach 1765.56 or even extend the correction down to 1750.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: after breaking 50 to the downside, its signal is expected to continue moving downwards to reach 20.

Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Risk Attitude Pushes Euro to Strengthen

So far, the US Fed hasn’t given any signals of the QE programme reduction in November. This fact upsets the “greenback” enthusiasts, who obviously decided to take a break and wait for any relevant news.

This week, the European Central Bank is scheduled to have a meeting, where it is expected to keep its monetary policy aspects intact. It will be very interesting to hear the regulator’s comments about the stimulus, which is currently not expected to change.

In the H4 chart, EUR/USD has formed a consolidation range around 1.1642 in the form of a Triangle pattern. Possibly, the pair may break the range and grow to reach the pattern’s upside border at 1.1685. If later the price breaks this level to the upside, the market may continue trading upwards with the target at 1.1710 (at least). From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 0, while histograms are showing a steady wave to the upside.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after rebounding from 1.1664 to the downside, EUR/USD is falling towards 1.1642. Possibly, the pair may rebound from the latter level and resume growing to reach 1.1688. After that, the instrument may break this level as well and continue trading upwards with the target at 1.1710. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 80. Later, the line is expected to fall towards 50, a rebound from which may lead to another growth to reach 80.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Euro Effectively Recovering

The “greenback” dropped a bit after the USA reported on its labour market for September. For example, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.8% in September after being 5.2% in August – and that’s great news. The Average Hourly Earnings added 0.6% m/m after expanding by 0.4% m/m the month before.

However, the Non-Farm Employment Change showed only 194K after being 366K in August and against the expected reading of 490K. Obviously, the country’s economy is still suffering from labour shortages and delays in delivery.

This employment data is the last one before the November meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, during which the regulator is theoretically expected to decide on its stimulus program.

In the H4 chart, after reaching the short-term target at 1.1530, EUR/USD continues forming the descending wave; right now, it is correcting. Possibly, the pair may grow to test 1.1600 from below and then and then forming a new descending impulse towards 1.1500.

Later, the market may form a new consolidation range there. After that, the instrument may break this range to the downside and start another decline with the target at 1.1382. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is steadily growing towards 0. Today, the line is expected to rebound from this level and resume falling towards new lows.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after forming a new consolidation range around 1.1560 and then breaking it to the upside, EUR/USD is expected to continue the correction towards 1.1588. After that, the instrument may fall to reach 1.1570 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 1.1600.

All ascending structures should be only considered as correctional – the asset may start plunging towards 1.1500 at any moment. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 80. Later, the line is expected to fall towards 50, a breakout of which may lead to further decline to reach 20.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Crude Oil in Wait For OPEC+ Decisions

Brent is trading at $79.00 and will surely very actively respond to all comments, both from the cartel itself and its members.

The basic scenario implies that the cartel may stick to its strategy of getting back 400K barrels per day to the oil market. What might seem very interesting is demand/supply estimations and the market response that will follow.

There is also a more progressive scenario, according to which the cartel may announce the market’s need for raw materials and a possibility of an oil output increase because the global oil shortage continues. However, this possibility is pretty unlikely.

In the H4 chart, after finishing another ascending impulse at 79.70, Brent is expected to continue trading within the uptrend with the target at 82.82. Possibly, today the asset may consolidate around 80.00. Later, the market may break the range to the upside and form one more ascending structure towards 80.60 or even reach the above-mentioned target at 82.82. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 0 within the histogram area and may continue growing towards new highs.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after completing the ascending impulse at 79.70 along with the correction towards 78.00 and then finishing another ascending structure to reach 79.80, Brent is consolidating below the latter level. Possibly, the asset may break this range to the upside and form a new one around 80.00. Later, the market may break this range as well and resume trading within the uptrend with the short-term target at 81.35.

After that, the instrument may correct towards 80.00 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 82.82. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is falling to rebound from 20 and then start another growth towards 80.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.