Greenback Giving a Moderate Start in April

The US final GDP reading for Q4 came at +2.9% YoY, with the previous reading at 2.5% and the expectations of 2.7%. This illustrates that the growth slowed down indeed, but not that critically as the analysts had assumed. The indicator was supported by the wholesale inventories that did not go down as much as predicted.

According to the stats, the best quarters for the GDP last year were Q2 (+3.1%) and Q3 (+3.2%), with Q1 being very lackluster and Q4 rather moderate, in the lights of many factors and stats being accumulated. GDP readings are very much important for the greenback, as it gets higher whenever the national economy performs well.

The job market provided the USD with some additional support, with jobless claims falling by 12k to 215k (against 230k expected). These are the best stats since early 1973. The investors got somewhat used to the stability in the US job market, so, as a rule, the greenback does not react very actively. However, this particular reading supported the USD in the lights of the pre-Easter market and a positive trend in the fundamentals.

This week is going to be packed with events for the greenback, as the US is issuing the updated March stats. The mean expectation for the unemployment level is 4% against 4,1% expected previously, while the NFP is expected at 190k or 200k, after the strong February performance (313k), although the latter may still be somewhat adjusted.

The predominant long-term trend in EUR/USD is still ascending. In the short term, an ascending channel is forming, with the previous descending one being broken out. The price tested the resistance after breaking it out, which created a support level for the current channel at 1.2280. The most likely short-term scenario is the price rising to reach the current channel resistance at 1.2555, which coincides with the major high. The major target of this short-term trend may also be at 1.2590. This is confirmed not only by the channel range but also with the previous descending channel, as the market often tries to reach the distance equal to the previous pattern.

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

RoboForex is a group of companies that offers brokerage services to clients in various countries over the world. The group provides traders from the Forex and stock markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms.

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Greenback to Become Even More Vulnerable

During its meeting in March, the Fed was very clear in hinting at its further fiscal policy. The Federal Reserve is still all for three rate hikes this year (one has already done, two remaining). The interest rate is now between 1.50% and 1.75%, with the next hike going to take place in July or even later.

Fed meeting minutes point out that the CPI is mixed, and there are currently no reasons to wait for the inflation to go sharply up. The job market still makes very good progress, but this driver alone is not of course enough for the Fed to raise the interest rates.

This was the first FOMC meeting for the new Fed Governor Jerome Powell, who said during the press conference that he was surprised at the Fed has no interest towards long-term inflation rate. However, the markets had already known his point of view and priced it into the respective assets, so no reactions came out this time. The greenback, however, was still sent lower after the FOMC meeting, just because the expectations were not met.

The USD is also suffering because of the US government that is quite busy planning a few ‘trade wars’. Nobody knows what such ‘wars’ against Japan or China may bring, but people are not absolutely ready to take the risk anyway. Both the Fed failing the market’s expectations and the US government policies allow EUR/USD to skyrocket, not because the euro is so much interesting for the investors, but just because the market does not know what is going to happen to the USD.

EUR/USD is, meanwhile, forming an uptrend. The previous descending channel was interrupted by the resistance breakout, which allowed the price to move to the upper projection channel, at a distance equal to the one of the previous channel. Currently, the market is testing the projection channel resistance. The current situation may lead to two scenarios, both highly possible. With an uptrend forming, the price may break out the resistance at 1.2405, then go to the current short-term high at 1.2446, and finally to the important level of 1.2500, with a slight correction afterward. Another possible option is a pullback after testing the resistance, which may result in the price going down to the support area, somewhere near $1.2250.

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

RoboForex is a group of companies that offers brokerage services to clients in various countries over the world. The group provides traders from the Forex and stock markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms.

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Greenback Still Intended for Growth

EUR/USD is still going down, keeping up the impulse formed on Mar 14. By Monday, Mar 19, the major pair is retreating towards 1.2260, while being still somewhat far from the local lows. This week is going to be very busy for the dollar, the leading event being Fed meeting, the very first one for its new governor Jerome Powell.

A key interest rate is extremely likely to be raised during the meeting, the investors and analysts say, but this is not the major question here. The markets will be expecting any comments or hints regarding future policies and steps the Fed is going to take. In particular, the investors are interested in how the interest rate will be raised further in 2018. The Fed previously said they were going to raise the rates at least thrice; Powell, however, said that the economic system in the US was stable, and the inflation would be more ‘active’. The governor made these comments during his Congress speech, and the market interpreted it as a possibility of raising the interest in December. Nobody denied this possibility afterward, and this is why the USD is still that strong.

Additionally, the greenback is well supported by the fundamental data. On Friday, Michigan consumer confidence came at 102.00, exceeding the expectations of 99.60 and the previous value at 99.70 far away. These stats are preliminary, but the real value hardly ever differs from this. Anyways, Michigan rising above 100.00 is very much positive for the US dollar.

No significant reports are expected today or tomorrow in the US, so the market attention will be driven towards the EU reports and then the results of the Fed meeting.

Technically, EURUSD is descending, with the price breaking out the ascending correction channel support. The new target of the descending impulse is now the projection channel support, which is at the same time the major channel center, at 1.2220. After reaching this target, the pair may start rising again, while hitting and breaking out the major channel resistance at 1.2390 may then lead the price towards 1,2555. Conversely, the breakout at 1.2220 may allow the price to test the support at 1.2000, with the resistance being at 1.2335.

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

RoboForex is a group of companies that offers brokerage services to clients in various countries over the world. The group provides traders from the Forex and stock markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms.

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Data Releases Prevented Dollar from Rising. Next, US Inflation

The job market February reports puzzled the investors and provided drivers for the next coming days. The unemployment remained unchanged at 4.1%, being perhaps the only report that did not cause any turmoil.

The NFP came at +313k, being forecast at just 205k, while in January the data was at 239k. Thus, Feb report managed to hit an 18-month high.

US hourly wages rose just by 0.1%, while it was 0.3% in Jan and forecast 0.2% in Feb. There’s some logic behind it, as the wages had been rising for two months, within not the best season for the US economy. This makes it quite likely that the Feb data show the correction of Dec and Jan stats. As for YoY, wages made +2.6% instead of 2.8% reached before, which also proves the correction is on its way.

The market was little interested in the reasons behind the lackluster wages, though, while the investors were busy assessing the indicator as such. This is quite logical, too, as slow wages growth may prevent the Fed from rate hikes. That is why the greenback was rather unstable Friday.

Today, US inflation data will be released at 13:30 GMT and can be a key factor to the next US dollar move.

The mid-term trend in EUR/USD is descending, which was caused by the price bouncing off the resistance and the local uptrend support. The new target is the major trend support at around 1.2075. In the short term, the price may break out the local resistance and head towards the upper projection channel at 1.2385. The major trend is still descending, though, and it may change only in case the major resistance is broken out, and that, in its turn, may happen only after the lows have been tested.

EUR/USD Chart
EUR/USD Chart

RoboForex is a group of companies that offers brokerage services to clients in various countries over the world. The group provides traders from the Forex and stock markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms.

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Dollar Indecisive Between Growth and Risk

The greenback was doing good last week against other majors, although the euro managed to recover some losses by the end of it, while the yen was in demand in the lights of safe heaven popularity. Meanwhile, the pound and the loonie came underdogs.

Jerome Powell, the new Fed governor, was the one to give the strongest support to the USD: in his Congress speech regarding monetary policy over the last 6 months, he was energetic and even somewhat hawkish, while the markets were expecting him to be more dovish. Powell’s commentary on economic sustainability and inflation potential may mean we could expect four rate hikes this year instead of thee, as it was previously announced.

This is what actually send the US dollar higher, even with the fundamentals being somewhat negative. The US GDP in Q4 2017 came lower than expected, reaching just 2.50%, while new home sales fell by 7.80%.

The dollar rally was impressive, but not for too long. As soon as Donald Trump announced 25% duties on steel import and 10% on aluminum import, the greenback found itself under pressure. The duties as such pose no threat to the US currency, but the investing world got worried of the new ‘trading wars’ that could be provoked by those duties, and that could mean a very high risk.

This puts the dollar between a rock and a hard place, as the aggressive rate hike is quite likely (experts see it as 50% likely, which is very probable), while the US economy may from now on bar any foreign competition.

Technically, the downtrend in EUR/USD came to an end, and a new uptrend is forming. The descending channel resistance is broken out, and the price went higher to the projection channel, with the new resistance at $1.2364. Once this one is broken out, too, the price may head towards the next projection channel at $1.2455. In the short term, the pair may go down to the local ascending channel support, while the support breakout at $1.2270 could mean the further fall to $1.2186.

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

RoboForex is a group of companies that offers brokerage services to clients in various countries over the world. The group provides traders from the Forex and stock markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms.

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Yen Still Being Strong

Many macroeconomic reports are being released that could be important for the yen; two things, however, will prevail: Haruhiko Kuroda re-election as the BoJ governor and the demand for the yen as a safe haven.

Safe haven thing is quite clear: when there’s tumult in the markets, investors are always looking for low-risk assets, and the yen is obviously one of those. As for Kuroda’s second term, the outlook is somewhat mixed. Mr Kuroda is likely to stay, as there are no candidates out there that could replace him, while the QE is still working and his political reputation is good. Achieving a stable rate of inflation and better consumer spending also speak for the current BoJ governor.

If Kuroda is re-elected, the QE is very likely to be continued and even extended. However, one cannot stimulate such economy as Japan for ages, you’ve got to end the QE somewhere and then maintain the balance. Keeping the achieved results is actually the most complex thing in the QE. Still, as long as the inflation rate is not growing by itself, without any support, quitting QE is not an option at all.

All these speculations are still neutral for the Japanese yen for the time being but can become negative in the future.

Speaking of the fundamental reports being published in Japan this week, the situation is quite mixed. The January PPI has fallen from 3% to 2.7% YoY, while machinery orders have soared from 48.3% to 48.8%.

Technically speaking, USD/JPY is downtrending, be it a shot, mid, or long term. Currently, the price is close to the short and mid-term support, with the target at around 107.00. Then, most likely, then it may rebound from support and go up to reach the resistance. If this is the case, the immediate target for the upmove will be at 108.30. After that, many things will depend on the price testing the resistance: if a breakout occurs, the yen may slide both into the upper projection channel and towards the midterm channel resistance at 109.00.

USD/JPY 4H Chart
USD/JPY 4H Chart

This Article was written by Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

GBP to Stay Bullish

Thursday reports showed the manufacturing production was suffering from some local issues regarding the business activity, which dropped from 56.2 to 55.3, hitting a low since mid last year.

GBP/USD starts this new week at around 1.4120,  with the last week high at 1.4278. The long-term ascending channel is still here to stay, while the mid-term moves are doubtful.

All important reports that could shed some light on the British pound are being released later this week. The Bank of England meets Thursday, Feb 8, with the interest rate and other monetary policy issues to be discussed. The rate is at 0.50% now and is likely to remain there. The investors are expecting the BoE to leave it unchanged, as the time for the hike has obviously not come yet, as we are heading into the second stage of Brexit talks. The quarterly inflation report will be an interesting addition to the BoE meeting statement. The pound will surely benefit from positive views of BoE and its governor Mark Carney on inflation.

Manufacturing production is being released on Friday, Feb 9, with construction and manufacturing data broken down. Alongside with it, the UK trade balance will be announced, while NIESR will also release the predicted GDP data. All this makes the later week quite volatile for the pound.

Technically, GBP/USD is performing in a much similar fashion as EUR/USD, with the major trend being also ascending, and both impulse and pullbacks resembling too much. The only difference, for now, is that GBP/USD did succeed in breaking out the ascending channel support, which can lead the pair towards the projection channel support at 1.3890. Still, we know the market is a very volatile thing, and the price may well return to the ascending channel again, too, which would signal the further movement and the resistance breakout at 1.4280. Once this breakout occurs, the price may reach the long-term trend resistance at 1.4810.

GBP/USD 4H Chart
GBP/USD 4H Chart

RoboForex is a group of companies that offers brokerage services to clients in various countries over the world. The group provides traders from the Forex and stock markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. 

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Crude Ready to Go Higher

Friday report revealed that the oil rig count in the US had grown by 11 by Jan 26, to reach 946. The YoY growth is at 235. In Canada, 13 rigs had been added, with the total count at 338. Shale oil companies in Canada has been very active lately, January is a good month for them.

Despite the totally bearish stats, Brent crude went above $70. It looks like the oil market is more sensitive to the dollar than to the fundamentals. Being that, the greenback is rather neutral early this week, as the market players had to pay a dear price for the volatility last week. The investors are likely to save their energy and wait for a new important event that would provoke another move.

There’s another important thing the capital and commodity markets may become very sensitive to, and these are geopolitical events. The US may announce toughening of the sanctions against Russia, and the market reaction will very much depend on how tough these sanctions will be. In case the Russian bonds are not banned, the sanctions are unlikely to shock the investors. If Washington goes ‘all in’, though, the markets may become very much volatile, and the crude oil might go up even further. This means Brent crude may even reach $71 and $72.

Technically, Brent is steadily rising within a long-term channel; the price, however, has tested the resistance, which could mean a pullback or even a reversal. Speaking mid-term, the major downside target may be at $58.50, which was previously a support that then became a resistance.

Short term, Brent is still uptrending, but the next target may well be at $67 (the support), while the black gold can still rise up to $76.40 to reach the resistance, too.

A pullback to $67 could be a test of both the short-term and the long-term support. Once the support gets broken out, the price will enter the projection channel at $62.80, and this could influence the investors’ decision on buying or holding their positions.

Brent Daily Chart
Brent Daily Chart

RoboForex is a group of companies that offers brokerage services to clients in various countries over the world. The group provides traders from the Forex and stock markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. 

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

US Government Shutdown Priced into USD

The US government has been shut down: it is not working since Saturday, Jan 20, as there is no financing for it. During the budget negotiations, the Republicans and the Democrats stumbled across the immigration issue and the questions around defense sector support. As it often happens, the discussion was very extended, and there was no time for the budget approval talks.

Last time, the US government was shut down in 2013, while there were around 20 shutdowns over the last 50  years. Each time this happens the dollar finds itself under pressure but then recovers rather quickly. Currently, everything depends on how much time it will take to make a decision: as soon as an agreement is achieved, the financing will be renewed. The problem is, however, that nobody can tell us when this will happen exactly.

As a rule, such political debate that looks more like a show does not last long. This year, the government has to work at its best, as the success of Trump’s reforms very much depends on how quickly the initiatives will be supported by the respective documents.

Meanwhile, this week the ECB is meeting for the first time this year. No major decisions are expected, although it is still important to watch whether the tone will be hawkish or dovish. During the early week, EUR/USD fundamentals will be centering around the US government shutdown, while later Eurozone news is likely to prevail.

Technically, there could be seen something like parity in EUR/USD, but only at first sight. Both the long term and the short term EUR/USD trends are ascending, with the latter having recently added momentum. As of now, the price has surpassed the upper border of the trend channel and is testing the line that has already become support. The price is consolidating as if ready to bounce way up later. The trend aims for the current channel upper border at 1.2517. However, the important round number of 1.2500 may prevent some traders from buying, which could lead to the price bouncing back down to 1.2250. With a strong correction movement, the quotes may even fall to 1.1975.

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

This article was written by Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex.

Gold Rallying Steadily

The market does not believe in the greenback and does not pay any attention to the fundamentals. On Friday, the US inflation report came up mixed, with the CPI growth by just 0.1% MoM, as expected. Base inflation did much better, with 0.03% growth MoM, the expectations being at 0.2%, and the previously released number at 0.1%.

Investors believe the Fed will be slower at taking interest rate decisions that it was expected to. One of the reasons is Janet Yellen’s successor, Jerome Powell, who is famous for being dovish towards monetary policy decisions. Another one is that there seems to be no point in raising the rate quickly and actively.

Thus, the greenback is under heavy pressure, and while it is so, the gold is rallying. The future looks mixed for the yellow metal: while the weak dollar helps it rise, one can clearly see it’s already overbought, and thus will retreat once a decent reason appears.

We can clearly identify a tight ascending channel on H4 gold chart, but still, technically, there are some contradictions. First, the major target of the current move is on the long-term channel resistance at 1384.50. Once this target has been achieved, gold can retreat back to 1330.

Gold 4H Chart
Gold 4H Chart

However, the price may well bounce from the mid-term range resistance at 1353.36, which could send the yellow metal even lower, to around 1300.

RoboForex is a group of companies that offers brokerage services to clients in various countries over the world. The group provides traders from the Forex and stock markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. 

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Euro Enters Correction Phase, Not for Much Longer

So, after making a new high at 1.2090, EUR/USD rebounded to get ready for a new ‘attack’. There’s a good deal of debate between the economists and the analysts regarding the next point for the second growth wave. There are pessimistic views pointing to 1.1600, which could be the end of the current correction phase, while the optimists say 1.1930 is enough to reach new highs later.

The greenback faces its major difficulty in the investors doubting that the Fed could raise the interest rate three times in 2018. While the Fed has already done this before and is not yet compromised with anything, this appears irrelevant for the market. Still, the market players point out that interest rate rise is probable, but, perhaps, only twice this year, and with a long pause.

Another issue for the greenback is inflation, although it is also quite unclear. The last available consumer price index growth reading is 2.2%, which is higher than the Fed target (2%). So, the index is growing, if not too fast, which is absolutely fine for the current season. All in all, the inflation is not a major obstacle for the Fed with regard to raising the interest rate.

The labor market is not such an obstacle either. Many say the conditions in the employment sector are getting tighter, but, overall, the sector is quite balanced and sustainable. The unemployment rate is at its low at 4.1%, and it could go well below to 3.8% or 3.7% this year, which is a great base for the current monetary policy in the US.

Last Friday, the Eurozone inflation came in, and it appeared to lag behind the expectations. Here’s what one should pay attention to.

Technically, EUR/USD is still uptrending in the mid-term. Upon reaching a few months’ high, the pair, naturally, entered the correction phase. While the price has not yet maintained above 1.2092, which is the current high, a new downward impulse can occur in the mid-term correction. A short-term ascending trend gave way to a descending one after the local resistance breakout at 1.2052. Currently, the price is headed towards the support at 1.1835. After this level has been reached, the trend may enter the projection channel and reach its support, with the primary target at 1.1540. The price may also well rebound at the current support, with a short-term target at the current resistance of 1.2175.

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

RoboForex is a group of companies that offers brokerage services to clients in various countries over the world. The group provides traders from the Forex and stock markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. 

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Bitcoin Forecast 2018

Bitcoin has soared by 1372.40% this year and is attracting even more attention. One cannot predict what will exactly happen to bitcoin, though, as it is not backed by anything and does not have enough historical data, so tech analysis may work in some cases and may not in others.

The latest collapse that sent Bitcoin from the high at $19,891.99 all the way to $10,718, questions the long-term BTC rally and all this hype around it. The debate over the ‘true’ bitcoin is becoming hotter, with a lot of advocates of the more technologically advanced Bitcoin Cash.


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There’s some more to it. With the great demand for bitcoin over the last 5 months, a large number of funds flowed into the market. The growing number of transactions have complicated the matters for crypto exchanges, which lead to withdrawal issues. More and more pieces of news are coming in, telling about cryptocurrency wallet malfunctions, while the users keep complaining about transaction glitches. All this is not the best news for bitcoin. Besides, BTC is becoming a synonym of speculation, which also makes some people shun it and turn to altcoins with less speculative hype and more growth potential backed by technologies.

BTC is likely to continue its current long-term trend in Q1 2018. After the correction, the price will try to reach $20,000 and then go ahead towards $25,000 or $27,000 by the middle of the year. Any predictions beyond that are pointless because of Bitcoin’s extreme volatility.

This article was written by Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

The US Dollar is waiting for the tax decision

Right now, the reform project is being discussed by the US Senate and the House of Representatives. Both of them agreed on the reform earlier, but what they are working on right now is a more elaborate procedure. Politicians are trying to find some kind of “middle ground”, which will later go to the President for his signature.

After another stage of negotiations between the US Senate and the House of Representatives, which eliminated a lot of doubts about the revision of federal corporate income tax, investors are pretty optimistic about the document. It is quite possible that the President may sign the reform project until the end of this week. From the very beginning, the document was planned to be signed by Christmas, that’s why we may assume that everything is going according to the schedule right now, so there’s no need to worry about it

However, there is still a risk, which lies in the attitude of some senators, and all of them, by the way, happened to be republicans. Earlier, these senators told that in their opinion the healthcare sector aspect hadn’t been negotiated properly. In other words, they are “rolling back” the negotiations. Considering that the Republicans are already in minority, it would be critical to losing supporters in their position. A special attention should be paid to Senator McCain because he was absent during the previous voting due to sickness.

This is the reason why the USD doesn’t rise as much as it could have, given the circumstances. Still, right now there is more positive news about the reform negotiations than negative. If Trump signs the document this week (remember that the USA will have holidays on December 24th and 25th due to Christmas), it will come into effect right after New Year and that’s very good for the US Dollar.

So, what is happening to the EUR/USD pair from the technical point of view? At the H4 chart, we can see that after breaking the resistance line of the downtrend channel (colored in yellow), the pair started moving upwards and reached the target resistance level of the projected channel (colored in blue). The current downtrend may reach 1.1685. However, if we take a look at the dynamics of the lows, we may assume that the instrument is starting a new uptrend. The level to confirm this “new uptrend” scenario is 1.1815, which is the resistance area of the current channel. If the pair breaks this level, it will move towards the next projected channel (colored in green) and its resistance line at 1.1890.

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

RoboForex is a group of companies that offers brokerage services to clients in various countries over the world. The group provides traders from the Forex and stock markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. 

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The New Zealand Dollar strengthened its positions

At the beginning of the second December decade, the New Zealand Dollar was supported by the news related to financial and political “relocations”, which was taken by investors quite well. Moreover, the New Zealand Dollar rate was positively affected by the statistics.

So, Adrian Orr has been appointed as a new Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, effective from March 27th, 2018. Previously, Orr was the Chief Executive at the New Zealand Superannuation Fund and the Deputy Governor and Head of Financial Stability at the Reserve Bank. Orr will replace Acting Governor Grant Spencer in March next year. He was appointed unanimously.

As for the statistics, investors do not consider the electronic card retail sales to be one of the most important reports, but on Monday morning, which was very quiet, they took this information very positively. In November, the indicator expanded by 1.4% y/y, which is better than it was in the previous month.

There are two more important reports planned for this week, the business NZ manufacturing index (November) on Friday and the Westpac Consumer Sentiment (the fourth quarter) on Sunday.

These reports will show if the New Zealand business is positive when it comes to estimating future outlook and expenses, and describe consumer confidence as well.

From the technical point of view, the H4 chart of the NZD/USD pair shows the uptrend. We should note that the price broke the resistance level and reversed to the upside at the end of November but still hasn’t been able to reach the projected target at 0.6980. Probably, such movement may be considered as a horizontal correction. The short-term target is the area between the resistance and support levels at 0.6875 and 0.6980 respectively. Before moving towards 0.6980, the price may pause and test 0.6875. A more ambitious target is at 0.7190. However, to continue growing towards it, the instrument has to break 0.6980 and fix it first.

NZD/USD 4H Chart
NZD/USD 4H Chart

As we can see at the daily chart, the pair is testing the support level of the downtrend from below. As a result, we may assume that the dominating downtrend hasn’t completed yet. The next possible downside target is at 0.6490.

NZD/USD Daily Chart
NZD/USD Daily Chart

RoboForex is a group of companies that offers brokerage services to clients in various countries over the world. The group provides traders from the Forex and stock markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms.

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

How to Trade Bitcoin?

False stories appear every now and again, boosting volatility, and some cryptocurrency exchanges are regularly hacked or go bankrupt. All this shows the high-risk nature of the digital coin market.

Still, with all that, the total market cap of the cryptocurrencies exceeds $250B (it was just $40B earlier this year). Bitcoin, Ether, and Bitcoin Cash are the leaders, with $256B, $40B, and $22B respectively at the time of writing.


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Major Investing and Trading Instruments

Bitcoin (BTC) is by far the greatest driver of the market. The first bitcoin exchange transaction took place in September 2009, when 5,050 bitcoins were exchanged for US$5.02. To date, BTC broke through $14,500 and is now the most valuable asset on the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin has become a profitable investment for many, but there are many who are just approaching this instrument, too. High volatility brings a lot of excitement and anxiety, but also allows the speculators to capitalize on short-term moves.

Ether (ETH) is the second most popular digital currency, and also second by market cap. Most of the market players regard it as an investment vehicle, not a speculative asset. Apart from these two cryptocurrencies, investors and traders use such cryptocurrencies as Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Bitcoin Gold, Litecoin, Dash, NEO, Monero, and IOTA.

Major exchanges offer cryptocurrency pairs trading, with BTC/ETH, DSH/BTC, and LTC/BTC being the most popular. To trade such pairs, one needs to thoroughly analyze the news and keep informed on the important events of the cryptocurrency market.

Currently, not only professional investors but also general public becomes more interested in cryptocurrencies.

Trading Bitcoin with a Broker

One of the easiest ways to get familiar with cryptocurrencies is opening a trading account with a major FX broker. Lately, upon cryptocurrency boom, more and more brokers have been offering digital currency trading to their clients. Trading conditions do not vary much from one broker to another.

More often than not, brokers provide access to cryptocurrency trading through MT4 and MT5 platforms. Let’s take BTC/USD for example. On average, the minimum position amount is BTC 0.1, with the spread of 0.30% or 0.40%, thus making it reasonable to trade on H1 and larger time frames. Leverage varies from 1:1 to 5:1, so you will need to deposit $200 to $1,000 in order to start trading. The broker usually takes a fee of 0.20% to 0.30% of the transaction amount.

It should be noted that bitcoin trading with a broker means trading contracts for difference (CFD’s) that enable taking profit in both rising and falling markets without physically owning the asset. For maximum security of your funds, we recommend you open accounts only with trusted brokers that are regulated by such prominent financial authorities as ASIC, CySEC, FCA, etc.

Trading Strategy

When it comes to bitcoin trading strategies, one should remember that, basically, BTC is a market asset, just like any other one. In this light, it can be influenced by the same fundamental and psychological factors as other financial instruments.

You surely remember that story of buying a pizza for a few thousands of bitcoins when the digital currency had been just introduced. Since then, however, Bitcoin price skyrocketed, so the buy-and-hold strategy is unlikely to bring you large profits now.

According to a widespread opinion, there are very few historical data to rely on technical analysis when it comes to bitcoin, and that’s why one should invest time into studying news and learning how the market reacts to it. Such an opinion is reasonable, as, indeed, news and events do influence the cryptocurrency markets. Still, saying that tech analysis is not going to work is at least unjust, or even unwise. Using tech analysis is as feasible as with other financial instruments, for the trends in cryptocurrencies also form regularly and logically.

Bitcoin Auto Trading Strategies

Another way to trade BTC/USD worth mentioning separately is R Trader, which is a platform enabling trading across various markers. Apart from over 8,000 US stock market assets (equities and ETF’s), German and Swiss stock market instruments, indices, and FX, it also provides you with access to BTC/EUR, BTC/USD, LTC/BTC, ETH/BTC, and ETH/USD.

BTC/USD trading conditions are even better than in MT4, as the minimum order amount is just 0.01 lots, with the fees and leverage being the same as in MT4 and MT5. This means that the minimum deposit amount is as small as $20 to $100, depending on the leverage in use.

However, the key advantage of R Trader is not better trading conditions but an opportunity to make use of a free Strategy Builder and a backtester.

You don’t need any coding skills to create a trading bot, as it is made of a set of rules. You can create strategies both from scratch and use out-of-the-box templates. Among such templates, you will find a cryptocurrency trading bot, too.

With the cryptocurrency market still just starting to develop, many short-term strategies that no longer work in traditional trading, being replaced with high-frequency trading (HFT) protocols, could be well used for digital coin investment. Even without any scalping, you could leverage the bitcoin prices and take advantage of Bitcoin’s volatility.

Taking into account the nature of the major BTC/USD movement, breakout strategies work just as planned for this pair. With new players appearing in the market, they may stop working so precisely, but as of now, classic patterns are showing great results with cryptocurrencies. As an option, you can also consider this strategy: BTCUSD, D1, Buy Strat, Parabolic SAR (0.02; 0.1).

What happened this year to Bitcoin is as important as when it had reached $100 or had become more expensive than a Troy ounce of gold. On Sep 1, BTC came extremely close to $5,000, while on Dec 7 it was already near $14,500.

Cryptocurrencies have caused mayhem all over the world, being one of the fastest-growing sectors of the global financial markets. Bitcoin is a great investment and trading vehicle, as long as you analyze it correctly and select an appropriate trading strategy. Which strategy it is going to be is entirely up to you.

RoboForex is a group of companies that offers brokerage services to clients in various countries over the world. The group provides traders from the Forex and stock markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. 

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Gold is Waiting for a Proper Reason to Grow

Gold has a chance to grow as long as the USD is weak. This driver is the one that works best for the precious metal recently: when the US Dollar get under pressure, Gold prices rise.

This time, investors are very cautious. Gold isn’t skyrocketing as fast as the USD plummeted last Friday. This probably means that global market players believe that the current fluctuations in the main currency pair are temporary. That’s why the precious metal hasn’t reached 1300 yet while the USD is being quite weak.

One of the deterrents to Gold prices is the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. The December meeting of the regulator is ahead and investor are expecting the Fed to raise the key rate. Gold, unlike the US bonds, doesn’t bring fixed profit, so it has no advantages of other assets under such conditions.

However, there is a “counterweight”. Global central banks continue buying Gold for their reserves. In this respect, one should pay attention to what the Bank of Russia is doing: last Friday, the regulator announced that it was going to continue increasing the share of Gold in its reserves. Such policy is in the area of interest of Vladimir Putin’s executive office, this is why it’s so important for the Russian Central Bank. One shouldn’t disregard the forthcoming presidential elections in the Russian Federation and everything in the country must traditionally be very smooth before them. The Central Bank will continue increasing its investments into Gold, thus providing the precious metal with a long-term support. Apart from the Russian regulator, Gold are also being bought by central banks of other developing countries.

From the technical point of view, the dominating trend is still bullish. After finishing the correction, the pair stopped at 1260.67 without reaching the support line. The main upside target may be the resistance line of the long-term rising channel. One of the significant targets may be the psychologically-crucial level at 1400.00.

Gold Daily Chart
Gold Daily Chart

The H4 chart of the instrument also shows the uptrend. The closest upside target is close to the resistance line of the current short-term channel at 1303.00. If the price breaks this level, it may stop for a while and test the broken level. The next upside target may be near the resistance line of the projected channel at 1328.00.

Gold 4H Chart
Gold 4H Chart

RoboForex is a group of companies that offers brokerage services to clients in various countries over the world. The group provides traders from the Forex and stock markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms.

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The European currency is troubled by the German politics

The Euro is plummeting against the USD on the two first days of the week. No statistics have been published yet – investors’ attention is totally focused on what is happening in Germany’s political life.

The main problem once again is that the country’s politicians have no political consensus. Angela Merkel’s party, the Christian Democratic Union of Germany, couldn’t form a governing coalition with the parties, which didn’t get enough parliamentary seats in Bundestag. Merkel’s plan was to strike a deal with three parties, but she failed to convince the “Greens”. This “door” is not completely closed and the CDU may yet find some “points of contact” here. However, there probably won’t be any consensus with the Free Democratic Party. The party leaders say that “people voted for them so that they could change something” and believe that it will be better not to have anything to do with the party in power at all than govern in a wrong way, and this decision is very unlikely to change.

Now, Merkel has either to ask Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the President of the Federal Republic of Germany, to appoint her to the Chancellor position or announce new parliamentary elections. Both scenarios don’t look very good. The first scenario implies that she will have to govern the minority (she doesn’t want it), and the second one suggests that re-voting after such short period of time since the previous elections is unlikely to have any different effect. Politicians need new ideas, but there aren’t any, that’s why the country’s population is so unwilling to respond to old political slogans.

By the way, there has never been a minority government in Germany. At the same time, the country needs a very stable government in order to deal with migration issues and a lot of other critical problems. Germany has about two weeks to bring the country’s political order to proper conditions; otherwise, there might be some disturbances among population and business.

The Euro’s reaction to this news was quite negative and the uptrend in the EUR/USD pair is not likely to continue until some positive information relating to the German political life appears.

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

From the technical point of view, the short-term movement of the EUR/USD pair may be described as an uptrend with a descending correction inside it. Probably, the correction is about to finish, because, after testing support levels of the rising and correctional channels, the price started moving to test the key resistance area of the descending channel. If the pair breaks the resistance level and fixes above it, the instrument may grow towards the current high at 1.1860 and the next targets may be near the resistance level of the current uptrend channel. One of the closest and important upside targets is 1.1940. However, the short-term decline may yet continue with a possible target at 1.1685.

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

“Global optimism” Prevents Gold from Rising

Gold is making another attempt to rise using the USD short-term decline as a catalyst. However, the mid-term channel borders look quite stable and the precious metal is very unlikely to break them unless there is a really good reason for this. At the beginning of another November week, the troy ounce of Gold costs $1273, which is right in the middle of the current range.

Investors have alternatives – this is what is still counting against Gold. Rally on global capital markets doesn’t die down and allows market players to make money on traditional volatile assets, such as stocks and bonds. In recent months, the main indices updated their all-time highs over and over again. Among them are Dow Jones, S&P, and Nikkei 225. However, some certain “bursts” of global geopolitical tensions aren’t strong enough to impress investors and provide support to Gold. Right now, investors don’t consider confrontation between the USA and North Korea, which has declined recently, and “political fire” in the Middle East as a serious threat to the global optimism. This is why the demand for Gold as a tool for hedging risks is rather low.

Apart from market factors, there are other reasons not to buy Gold. Physical demand for Gold has decreased in India due to the introduction of the commodity tax, which reduced buying activity. China neutralizes this factor to a certain degree, but prices are still under pressure. World’s largest Central Banks continue buying Gold to prevent prices from falling lower, but such support isn’t enough to keep them in balance.

The current situation won’t change as long as the world is “full of optimism” and believes that this bullish rally may last long.

The current mid-term trend can be described as a flat. However, considering that the gold price broke the resistance line of the descending channel, we may expect a tendency reverse. In this case, in the nearest future, the price is expected to grow towards the current resistance level and 1311.00. If this level is broken, the uptrend will continue. However, if the instrument started a sideways correction, movement between support and resistance level might take a lot of time. On top of that, we shouldn’t exclude a possibility that the price may break the support line at 1266.00 and fall towards this year’s low.

Gold Daily Chart
Gold Daily Chart

RoboForex is a group of companies that offers brokerage services to clients in various countries over the world. The group provides traders from the Forex and stock markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. 

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Saudi Arabia is Pushing the Brent Oil to Two-Year High

Oil prices are at the highest over the previous 27 months. The last time when Brent was as expensive as today was in July 2015. During the second week of November, a barrel of Brent costs $63.74 and investors are really poised to continue buying.

Last weekend, Saudi Arabia attracted investors’ attention. There were several arrests of top-level officials, including princes and public servants. It is assumed that the country is experiencing some anti-corruption activities. There were no official comments from the country’s authorities, but there is a rumor that one of the arrested is Prince Al-Waleed. He is not just a random wealthy person, he is a wealthy member of the royal family, who spoke without restraints about both the country’s economy (he is against cryptocurrencies) and politics (he is against Saudi Arabia’s official stance on Yemen).

It appears that the acting government of Saudi Arabia is intended at least to eradicate those who are “disagree” or even merge their property and money. “Accumulation of power” is probably the best term right now.

We remind you that Saudi Arabia is one of the main lobby members of the OPEC+ agreement, which establishes strict borders and limits for oil extracting countries. The commodity market is responding to political news from Saudi Arabia believing that this very “accumulation of power” will help to extend the current agreement after March 2018. The organization still has no plan B but has some proofs that the document is effective. These proofs show a slowdown of the oil demand.

Brent prices growth can be explained not only by the fundamental analysis but by the technical one as well. They are still moving inside rising channels at both short- and mid-term charts.

Brent Oil 4H Chart
Brent Oil 4H Chart

After testing the resistance level of the short-term rising channel, the pair is trying to start a correction towards the downside border at 61.60, which may be a key level for the uptrend. If the price rebounds from 61.60, the uptrend will continue towards the upside border of the long-term rising channel at 64.00. Otherwise, “bears” will push the instrument towards 60.34. If this level is broken as well, a test of 58.95 will dot the i’s and cross the t’s.

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The External Background Prevents the EUR/USD from Rising

The EUR/USD pair has a nervous and volatile week ahead of it. It has happened to the main currency pair quite often recently, but it seems that the biggest news is still ahead.

So, by the end of October the EUR/USD pair has fallen to the lows it reached on July 20th. The descending impulse started accelerating after the European Central Bank meeting and then it got even faster. In addition to that, the US GDP numbers over the third quarter provided more support to the “bears”. The first estimation of the US economy in the third quarter 2017 showed the expansion by 3.0% y/y. It is more than expected (+2.5% y/y), but less than the second quarter reading (+3.1% y/y). We should note that the readings will be revised several times, and usually, they are revised upwards. It means that the final numbers may be much better.

The statistics look even more impressive if we remember that there were several huge hurricanes in the USA in the third quarter. The PPI reports with real numbers haven’t been published yet, because companies and enterprises provide them with delay, mostly because of the above-mentioned hurricanes. Excluding this “hurricanes factor”, the GDP growth would have been higher by 0.5% on average. Anyway, the strong GDP reading is a good signal before the November meeting of the US Federal Reserve On Wednesday.

This week, there will be another catalyst to support the US Dollar and to put pressure of the Euro – the “Catalonian” driver. Earlier, the Spanish authorities dismissed the head of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, and right now his duties are officially performed by the Spanish Council of Ministers. This way of governing, Catalonia will continue until December 21st, when the region will have to elect its new parliament. However, “the thermostat doesn’t drop” – Puigdemont doesn’t agree to the dismissal. In addition to that, there were several protests featuring thousands of people, who were against Catalonia’s will to exit Spain and become an independent country.

First of all, let’s take a look at the H4 chart of the EUR/USD pair, where the price is moving to the downside quite steadily. If we consider the short-term scenario, we should expect a new correction to the upside to reach the retracement of 50.0% at 1.1704, which is inside the current resistance area. After finishing the correction, the pair may continue falling inside the downtrend and form a new descending impulse. The most probable target of the downtrend is 1.1510 located near the retracement of 38.2%.

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

RoboForex is a group of companies that offers brokerage services to clients in various countries over the world. The group provides traders from the Forex and stock markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. 

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.