GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

The GBP/USD tumbled on comments from BoE Carney and the banks decision to hold fire at its meeting on Thursday. The pound closed the week at 1.3001 and is a strong sell moving into the new week. The pair is down 2% for the week and almost 12% on a year to date basis.

It was widely anticipated that the BoE would keep its monetary stance unchanged due to which there was no drastic volatility in the market. If we observe carefully, on 13th and 14th Sep’16, GBPINR was trading at lower levels and trading volumes were light too as disappointing inflation and employment data from Britain dented the investor sentiment. However, situations have changed after the result of BoE monetary policy review where the policymakers kept the borrowing rates unchanged and hinted at the possibility of future rate cuts in 2016.

The increase in consumer spending has not only improved the inflation rate but has also helped other sectors of Britain to gain strong footing. Manufacturing, service and construction sectors have revived owing to sudden upsurge in the solid inflows of new work from both domestic and export sources, the latter aided by the sterling exchange rate. Furthermore, stronger demand, product launches and clients committing to new and previously postponed contracts have worked in favor for the Britain’s economy. After the Brexit catastrophe, property shares had plunged which forced a series of funds in the sector to halt trading. However, now the real estate market is slowly regaining confidence. Business investments have also got a boost. All the above factors have kept the GDP growth rate unchanged at 0.6 percent for quarter ending Jun’16 in spite of the Brexit catastrophe.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous
9/20/2016 AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes 3
9/20/2016 CAD BoC Governor Poloz 3
9/21/2016 AUD Mid-Year Economic Outlook 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.1
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Press Conference 3
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Economic Projections 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Press conference 3
9/21/2016 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3 2
9/22/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/23/2016 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech 3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time           Country               Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Eur 2.8-3.5bn 4.5% Mar 2026,

Sep 20 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 4.25% Feb 2019 & Sek 1.5bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Sep 22 19:00 US Usd 11bn 0.125% Jul 2026 TIP

Sep 26 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn Sep 2017 Bubill

Sep 26 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 28

Sep 27 11:00 Netherlands Eur 0.75-1.25bn 4% Jan 2037 DSL

Sep 27 11:10 Italy Holds zero coupon/BTP€i auction

Sep 28 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 28 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Sep 2018 Schatz

Sep 29 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

 

 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

The USD/CAD had a tough week as oil and gold tumbled and the dollar soared weighing heavily on the Loonie. The currency closed the week at 1.3213 with the pair gaining 1.26% for the week and remains a strong buy moving into the new week. The pair is down 4.54% on a YTD basis. CAD is down 0.4% from Thursday’s close and weakening into the NA open, threatening a break to fresh lows on the back of continued weakness in oil prices.

The broader tone is one of risk aversion and the USD is strengthening broadly, leaving CAD vulnerable to further downside. Sentiment is dominant, measures of implied CAD volatility are elevated, and risk reversals have been testing levels last seen in late June in the period surrounding the UK referendum. CAD is completely disconnected from considerations of relative central bank policy, the 2Y U.S.-Canada yield spread down nearly 10bpts from its late August high just under 25bpts. Policy risks are likely to escalate into next week as we look to BoC Gov. Poloz’ September 20 speech titled ‘Living with lower for longer’, scheduled just ahead of the September 21 FOMC

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous
9/20/2016 AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes 3
9/20/2016 CAD BoC Governor Poloz 3
9/21/2016 AUD Mid-Year Economic Outlook 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.1
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Press Conference 3
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Economic Projections 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Press conference 3
9/21/2016 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3 2
9/22/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/23/2016 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech 3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time           Country               Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Eur 2.8-3.5bn 4.5% Mar 2026,

Sep 20 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 4.25% Feb 2019 & Sek 1.5bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Sep 22 19:00 US Usd 11bn 0.125% Jul 2026 TIP

Sep 26 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn Sep 2017 Bubill

Sep 26 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 28

Sep 27 11:00 Netherlands Eur 0.75-1.25bn 4% Jan 2037 DSL

Sep 27 11:10 Italy Holds zero coupon/BTP€i auction

Sep 28 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 28 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Sep 2018 Schatz

Sep 29 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

 

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

The EUR/GBP got bounced around this week to close at 0.8570. Both currencies were down for the week but the pound took the largest hit after the BoE held rates and policy. The euro was hit hard by weak data and worries over banks in Italy.

The negotiations between European Union and United Kingdom will be highly important as it will decide the course of economic path of both the territories. In a recent comment, House of Lords committee stated that the government should not trigger Article 50 without taking the parliament’s approval. According to the committee, Parliament should play a “central role” in the negotiation process. Moreover, British officials are trying hard to stop Europe from adopting a no-compromise position in talks in the hope that the UK will change its mind about leaving the bloc.

Sterling is leaking lower. There have been no data reports to drive sentiment but UK stocks are lower and banks are under-performing on the spillover from Europe. Analysts remain negative on the broader outlook for the GBP as they think the real effects of Brexit have yet to be fully realized

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous
9/20/2016 AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes 3
9/20/2016 CAD BoC Governor Poloz 3
9/21/2016 AUD Mid-Year Economic Outlook 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.1
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Press Conference 3
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Economic Projections 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Press conference 3
9/21/2016 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3 2
9/22/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/23/2016 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech 3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time           Country               Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Eur 2.8-3.5bn 4.5% Mar 2026,

Sep 20 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 4.25% Feb 2019 & Sek 1.5bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Sep 22 19:00 US Usd 11bn 0.125% Jul 2026 TIP

Sep 26 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn Sep 2017 Bubill

Sep 26 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 28

Sep 27 11:00 Netherlands Eur 0.75-1.25bn 4% Jan 2037 DSL

Sep 27 11:10 Italy Holds zero coupon/BTP€i auction

Sep 28 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 28 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Sep 2018 Schatz

Sep 29 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

The EUR/USD ended the week with a loss of just under 1% as the greenback continued to rally. The dollar is up as we count down days to the FOMC meeting. The euro is also troubled by the DOJ settlement offer to Deutsche Bank for 14 billion US dollar. The euro will open the new week at 1.1155 and will remain neutral this week ahead of the big events.

Weaker stocks are weighing on the EUR somewhat but the market is respecting recent ranges. Despite a run of mostly better than expected data this week, the GBP is under-performing on the session and heading for a soft close on the week. While data suggest that the immediate aftermath of the Brexit decision has not been too painful for the UK economy, the BoE’s cautious outlook, leaving the door wide open for more policy easing, has perhaps prompted investors to take a long view of the process.

The market has eased modestly from the mid 1.12 area through European trading as local bank stocks wilted. The euro seems more immune to the challenges of the local banking sector at the moment. We think spot still looks “rich” relative to fair value, based on Eurozone/US spreads and equity returns; major model suggests equilibrium based on these variables is a little under 1.06 currently

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous
9/20/2016 AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes 3
9/20/2016 CAD BoC Governor Poloz 3
9/21/2016 AUD Mid-Year Economic Outlook 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.1
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Press Conference 3
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Economic Projections 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Press conference 3
9/21/2016 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3 2
9/22/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/23/2016 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech 3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Eur 2.8-3.5bn 4.5% Mar 2026,

Sep 20 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 4.25% Feb 2019 & Sek 1.5bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Sep 22 19:00 US Usd 11bn 0.125% Jul 2026 TIP

Sep 26 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn Sep 2017 Bubill

Sep 26 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 28

Sep 27 11:00 Netherlands Eur 0.75-1.25bn 4% Jan 2037 DSL

Sep 27 11:10 Italy Holds zero coupon/BTP€i auction

Sep 28 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 28 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Sep 2018 Schatz

Sep 29 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

 

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

The USD/JPY closed the week at 102.28 dead center of its trading range as traders are focused on the Bank of Japan meeting as bank members leave markets completely uncertain. The pair is a strong sell this week with the two banks expected to do the exact opposites. The yen was down 0.4% on the week and the pair is down 15% on a year to date basis.

The Japanese yen is up 0.2%, outperforming the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, its gains driven by the broader tone of risk aversion with additional upside risk into the NA open. JPY’s risk profile leaves it vulnerable to knee-jerk rallies in periods of risk aversion, strengthening on the back of safe-haven flows. Measures of sentiment are mixed across time horizons as shorter-term measures reflect concerns surrounding the BoJ atypically pricing a slight premium for protection against JPY weakness as longer-term measures suggest a rise in demand for protection against JPY strength. Markets continue to highlight the risk of a disappointment and note the broadening narrative of discord among policymakers at the BoJ. JPY’s vulnerability thus lies to the upside as we consider the growing risk of a BoJ disappointment, with added support from the broader tone of risk aversion.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous
9/20/2016 AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes 3
9/20/2016 CAD BoC Governor Poloz 3
9/21/2016 AUD Mid-Year Economic Outlook 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.1
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Press Conference 3
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Economic Projections 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Press conference 3
9/21/2016 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3 2
9/22/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/23/2016 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech 3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time           Country               Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Eur 2.8-3.5bn 4.5% Mar 2026,

Sep 20 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 4.25% Feb 2019 & Sek 1.5bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Sep 22 19:00 US Usd 11bn 0.125% Jul 2026 TIP

Sep 26 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn Sep 2017 Bubill

Sep 26 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 28

Sep 27 11:00 Netherlands Eur 0.75-1.25bn 4% Jan 2037 DSL

Sep 27 11:10 Italy Holds zero coupon/BTP€i auction

Sep 28 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 28 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Sep 2018 Schatz

Sep 29 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

 

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

The AUD/USD will open in the new week at 0.7489 weighed down by the strength of the US dollar and lackluster jobs data. The Aussie is down 0.69% for the week and is neutral moving into the new week. The central bank meeting this week will determine the course of this currency. The US dollar surged late on Friday weighing on all of its crosses. The RBA minutes this week will be the highlight for the Aussie.

The Australian dollar fell by almost a quarter of a US cent after the release of the August employment numbers), which showed the number of people with jobs fell 3,900, the first fall since February.

The US dollar surged late on Friday while US economic data has mostly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts since late July, decidedly hawkish comments from Yellen and Fed Vice Chair Fischer set off speculation of imminent tightening. This sense has been reinforced by saber-rattling from most other policymakers that have opined since. Investors will look for guidance that reconciles this disparity. Augusts’ stronger-than-expected inflation reading and nonfarm payrolls growth averaging above the 190k cited by Ms Yellen as supportive of a hike certainly help. However, explicitly singling out these developments as formative may be needed to guide market expectations through the fog of conflicting news-flow.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous
9/20/2016 AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes 3
9/20/2016 CAD BoC Governor Poloz 3
9/21/2016 AUD Mid-Year Economic Outlook 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.1
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Press Conference 3
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Economic Projections 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Press conference 3
9/21/2016 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3 2
9/22/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/23/2016 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech 3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time           Country               Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Eur 2.8-3.5bn 4.5% Mar 2026,

Sep 20 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 4.25% Feb 2019 & Sek 1.5bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Sep 22 19:00 US Usd 11bn 0.125% Jul 2026 TIP

Sep 26 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn Sep 2017 Bubill

Sep 26 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 28

Sep 27 11:00 Netherlands Eur 0.75-1.25bn 4% Jan 2037 DSL

Sep 27 11:10 Italy Holds zero coupon/BTP€i auction

Sep 28 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 28 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Sep 2018 Schatz

Sep 29 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

 

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

The NZD/USD is a strong buy in this new week as it is expected to recover the losses in the new week after the BoJ decision and the FOMC meeting. The pair closed the week at 0.7267 down 0.83% for the week. The RBNZ will meet later this week but no changes are expected. The ANZ consumer confidence index rose four percentage points to 121 in August from July, the strongest level since January.

ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said the improvement was no surprise given the strength in house prices and pick-up in the dairy sector.

“Consumers are feeling more confident about the future as well as remaining upbeat about the right here and now.”

A net 11 percent of respondents said they were better off than this time last year and a net 31 percent said they expected to be better off in the next 12 months, with expectations for house price growth also rising.

Mr Bagrie said the high New Zealand dollar was also keeping a lid on import prices, which was making consumers more willing to buy big-ticket items such as appliances and cars.

“Our confidence composite gauge – combining business and consumer sentiment – continues to flag solid-to-strong GDP (gross domestic product) growth over coming months. Four percent real GDP growth is in prospect,” he said.

Official data showed the economy grew 3.6 percent in the year to June, the strongest since the end of 2014.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous
9/20/2016 AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes 3
9/20/2016 CAD BoC Governor Poloz 3
9/21/2016 AUD Mid-Year Economic Outlook 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.1
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Press Conference 3
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Economic Projections 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Press conference 3
9/21/2016 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3 2
9/22/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/23/2016 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech 3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time           Country               Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Eur 2.8-3.5bn 4.5% Mar 2026,

Sep 20 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 4.25% Feb 2019 & Sek 1.5bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Sep 22 19:00 US Usd 11bn 0.125% Jul 2026 TIP

Sep 26 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn Sep 2017 Bubill

Sep 26 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 28

Sep 27 11:00 Netherlands Eur 0.75-1.25bn 4% Jan 2037 DSL

Sep 27 11:10 Italy Holds zero coupon/BTP€i auction

Sep 28 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 28 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Sep 2018 Schatz

Sep 29 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

 

Oil Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

Crude Oil closed at 43.23 down almost 6% for the week and down3.25% for the year.  As the producers meeting draws near traders do not think that the participants will be able to meet an agreement. Even if they freeze production their current levels are at record highs. Brent oil is trading at 46.02 down 4% for the week.  There were few signs of recovery in the oil price this week as sentiment remained dampened and fresh supplies of oil from Libya and Nigeria were anticipated on the market.

In early trading on Friday, Brent crude was priced close to US$46 with WTI above US$43 a barrel. The sluggish state of the global economy continues to confound the market and worry the key players in the energy sector.

Everyone was banking on nearer term growth in global oil demand and while demand keeps growing, it has slowed down to a less than inspiring rate.

The International Energy Agency and OPEC released their monthly oil market reports this week with OPEC expecting moderate economic growth to continue.

The organization anticipates that oil demand will rise by 1.23 million barrels a day for 2016.

The IEA said oil demand in Asia was “wobbling” and said it expected demand to grow at around 1.3 million barrels, down about 100,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

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WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous
9/20/2016 AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes 3
9/20/2016 CAD BoC Governor Poloz 3
9/21/2016 AUD Mid-Year Economic Outlook 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.1
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Press Conference 3
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Economic Projections 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Press conference 3
9/21/2016 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3 2
9/22/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/23/2016 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech 3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Eur 2.8-3.5bn 4.5% Mar 2026,

Sep 20 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 4.25% Feb 2019 & Sek 1.5bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Sep 22 19:00 US Usd 11bn 0.125% Jul 2026 TIP

Sep 26 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn Sep 2017 Bubill

Sep 26 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 28

Sep 27 11:00 Netherlands Eur 0.75-1.25bn 4% Jan 2037 DSL

Sep 27 11:10 Italy Holds zero coupon/BTP€i auction

Sep 28 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 28 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Sep 2018 Schatz

Sep 29 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

Gold Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

Gold ended the week at the bottom of its trading range as traders prepare for the BoJ and the FOMC as the odds of a rate increase this year grows. Gold closed the week at 1313.25 down 1.27% for the week and is down almost 24% on the year to date basis. Gold is a strong buy moving into the next week. Buy on dips. Gold touched its lowest level since the UK voted to leave the European Union back in June as it just managed to keep its head above the US$1,300 mark on Wednesday.

The precious metal did recover somewhat in the afternoon session to actually post a small gain, although it remains under pressure from renewed confidence that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before 2016 is out. The Fed has previously said that it would seriously consider upping rates should US data continue to point towards a recovering economy.

A rate rise would have a negative impact on the price of gold as it would increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while simultaneously boosting the dollar, which the yellow metal is priced in, making it more expensive to foreign currencies.

A hike would also suggest to markets that the global economy is in better shape, reducing the need for ‘safe-haven’ assets such as gold.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous
9/20/2016 AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes 3
9/20/2016 CAD BoC Governor Poloz 3
9/21/2016 AUD Mid-Year Economic Outlook 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.1
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Press Conference 3
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Economic Projections 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Press conference 3
9/21/2016 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3 2
9/22/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/23/2016 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech 3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time           Country               Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Eur 2.8-3.5bn 4.5% Mar 2026,

Sep 20 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 4.25% Feb 2019 & Sek 1.5bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Sep 22 19:00 US Usd 11bn 0.125% Jul 2026 TIP

Sep 26 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn Sep 2017 Bubill

Sep 26 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 28

Sep 27 11:00 Netherlands Eur 0.75-1.25bn 4% Jan 2037 DSL

Sep 27 11:10 Italy Holds zero coupon/BTP€i auction

Sep 28 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 28 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Sep 2018 Schatz

Sep 29 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

Natural Gas soared at the end of the week to close at 2.954 as we move into the mid-season, but increased global demand for US natural gas is helping to support prices as new demands will soon outpace production. NG remains a strong buy gaining 5.61% this week and is up 26% on a year to date basis. natural gas market is well on the way to rebalancing as unusually high air-conditioning demand coupled with strong underlying consumption growth absorbs the record inventories left at the end of last winter.

Anticipating a tighter market in 2017, hedge funds and other money managers amassed the largest net long position in natural gas futures and options for more than two years by the end of August. Despite some recent profit-taking and fresh short selling, the hedge funds’ net long position in natural gas futures and options on Sept. 6 remained at the highest since July 2014

Gas futures hit a 2 1/2-month high Thursday after a weekly storage update showed a smaller-than-normal addition to storage for this time of year. That has happened frequently this summer, a big reason for the rally.

A surplus in storage, once about 50% higher than last year’s levels or the five-year average, has narrowed compared to past years. As of Sept. 9, U.S. natural gas stockpiles totaled 3.5 trillion cubic feet, 5.6% above levels from a year ago and 9.3% above the five-year average for the same week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday.

Sept 16-22nd: High pressure continues to dominate the southern US with very warm highs of mid-80s to lower 90s. Although, comfortable temperatures of 70s to lower 80s cover much of the rest of the US, lasting through this weekend, including the Great Lakes and northeastern US. Over the west-central US, a weather system continues to tracking through with showers and cooler temperatures, while over the West temperatures are warming back above normal. A swing back warmer is expected over the eastern US next week as high pressure returns to bring stronger nat gas demand. Overall, nat gas demand will be LOW over the northern US and MODERATE to HIGH over the southern US.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

 

natural-gas

Copper Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

Copper ended at 2.158 as Chinese data leaves the markets unsure. Copper is up 3.35% for the week.  copper prices are trading lower by 0.3 percent today at $4765 per tonne as risk appetite is limited ahead of crucial central bank meetings from the US and Japan next week. Besides, supply remains high as Peru’s Energy and Mines Ministry showed the country’s copper output jumped to 207,867 mt in July of 2016, an almost 30% growth from last year’s production of 155,313 million tonnes. However, sharp downside was capped owing to low volatility citing Chinese weekend holiday.

Copper prices will likely sideways as investors will avoid commodities ahead of crucial FOMC statement. Also, volatility will be low as Chinese markets are closed for mid-autumn festival

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous
9/20/2016 AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes 3
9/20/2016 CAD BoC Governor Poloz 3
9/21/2016 AUD Mid-Year Economic Outlook 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.1
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Press Conference 3
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Economic Projections 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Press conference 3
9/21/2016 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3 2
9/22/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/23/2016 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech 3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time           Country               Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Eur 2.8-3.5bn 4.5% Mar 2026,

Sep 20 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 4.25% Feb 2019 & Sek 1.5bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Sep 22 19:00 US Usd 11bn 0.125% Jul 2026 TIP

Sep 26 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn Sep 2017 Bubill

Sep 26 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 28

Sep 27 11:00 Netherlands Eur 0.75-1.25bn 4% Jan 2037 DSL

Sep 27 11:10 Italy Holds zero coupon/BTP€i auction

Sep 28 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 28 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Sep 2018 Schatz

Sep 29 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

 

S&P 500 Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

The S&P 500 will enter a crazy week at 2139.17 and is a strong buy as traders expect the markets to recover after the FOMC decision. The strength of the US dollar is weighing on equities while many traders moved to the sidelines ahead of this week’s major events. The index is down remains up 9.25% for the year and gained 0.53% this week but actually was trading at 2188 just a week ago.

US stocks ended Friday lower after oil prices and a spat involving Deutsche Bank saw investors flee energy and banking stocks – but resilient on the week. The S&P 500 bellwether closed down 0.4% at 2,139. Although it had been a rollercoaster ride of a week, with Fed speakers giving and removing hope of rates staying on hold next week, and data and oil prices that added to the gyrations, the top index ended just 21 points lower than where it closed last Friday – in the wake of Fed Hawk Eric Rosengarten’s comments.

Range Resources Corp was the top faller, of 5.1% to $37.38 after the company announced the completion of its merger with and acquisition of the stock of Memorial Resource Development Corp. followed by Oracle down 4.8% at $38.92.

Germany’s largest lender Deutsche Bank which faces a $14bn settlement claim from the US in respect of accusations it packaged toxic mortgages between 2005 and 2007. The subprime mortgage credit crisis that consumed Wall Street and interbank markets, and led to the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, had its origins in 2007.

US tech giant Apple has added some US$50bln to its market value amid positive reviews and strong pre-order sales of the iPhone 7. Shares in the tech firm gained 3.5% yesterday, after climbing 2.2% and 2.4% on Monday and Tuesday respectively.

The iPhone 7 is set to hit shelves around the world tomorrow (Friday) and despite initial fears, it seems investors are becoming more optimistic about Apple’s latest offering.

Bullish talk around pre-orders from big US wireless carriers like Sprint and T-Mobile has helped to drive investor sentiment as well as the share price.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous
9/20/2016 AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes 3
9/20/2016 CAD BoC Governor Poloz 3
9/21/2016 AUD Mid-Year Economic Outlook 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.1
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Press Conference 3
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Economic Projections 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Press conference 3
9/21/2016 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3 2
9/22/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/23/2016 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech 3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Eur 2.8-3.5bn 4.5% Mar 2026,

Sep 20 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 4.25% Feb 2019 & Sek 1.5bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Sep 22 19:00 US Usd 11bn 0.125% Jul 2026 TIP

Sep 26 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn Sep 2017 Bubill

Sep 26 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 28

Sep 27 11:00 Netherlands Eur 0.75-1.25bn 4% Jan 2037 DSL

Sep 27 11:10 Italy Holds zero coupon/BTP€i auction

Sep 28 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 28 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Sep 2018 Schatz

Sep 29 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

 

DAX 30 Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

The DAX 30 had a rocky week and remains weak after the US Department of Justice proposed a settlement with Deutsche Bank of 14 billion dollars to resolve the US mortgage crisis. The index is down almost 3% for the week and 4.35% for the year. The DAX will open at 10276.00. Banks were led lower after Germany’s New York-listed Deutsche Bank was reported to be hit with a US settlement claim of $14bn for selling toxic mortgage-backed securities in the so-called “subprime mortgage” scandal of the mid 2000s which led to the financial crisis.

Lenders took a hit after the US Department of Justice proposed that Deutsche Bank pay $14bn to settle allegations of mis-selling mortgage securities. However, Deutsche Bank said it had no intention to settle the claims anywhere near that figure.

European stock markets retreated yesterday, as banking shares led by Deutsche Bank slumped on news US authorities were hunting down Germany’s biggest lender over a record fine.

Frankfurt’s DAX 30 was the hardest hit, closing down 1.5% at 10,276.17, while the Paris CAC 40 shed nearly 1% at 4,332.45 compared with the close on Thursday.

The US Justice Department is seeking up to $14bn (€12.5bn) from Deutsche Bank to resolve allegations stemming from the sale of mortgage securities in the 2008 crisis, the German financial giant confirmed.

It added that the DoJ had invited the bank to submit a counter offer, and said it expected to reach a “materially lower” figure in negotiations.

But the news hammered Deutsche Bank shares, which sank 8.5% to close at €11.99 in Frankfurt.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

dax-30

This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous
9/20/2016 AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes 3
9/20/2016 CAD BoC Governor Poloz 3
9/21/2016 AUD Mid-Year Economic Outlook 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.1
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Press Conference 3
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Economic Projections 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Press conference 3
9/21/2016 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3 2
9/22/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/23/2016 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech 3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Eur 2.8-3.5bn 4.5% Mar 2026,

Sep 20 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 4.25% Feb 2019 & Sek 1.5bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Sep 22 19:00 US Usd 11bn 0.125% Jul 2026 TIP

Sep 26 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn Sep 2017 Bubill

Sep 26 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 28

Sep 27 11:00 Netherlands Eur 0.75-1.25bn 4% Jan 2037 DSL

Sep 27 11:10 Italy Holds zero coupon/BTP€i auction

Sep 28 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 28 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Sep 2018 Schatz

Sep 29 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

 

EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

The EUR/GBP gained 35 points as the pound tumbled harder than the euro as both currencies remained weak in today’s session. The pair is trading at 0.8528. Pound slumps as BOE hints at further easing

The pound slumped on Thursday after the Bank of England left the door open for a further expansion of its stimulus efforts.

The central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/boe-stands-pat-on-rates- but-signals-a-cut-ahead-2016-09-15) at 0.25%, a record low. It also left unchanged the size of its quantitative easing program at GBP435 billion ($576 billion). Investors had widely expected the central bank to stay put.

Hoping to shield the British economy from the expected fallout from June’s vote to leave the European Union, the central bank launched a stimulus program over the summer that included plans to buy corporate bonds and offer ultra-cheap loans to banks.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 19, 2016

Cur. Event   Forecast Previous  
  Holiday Japan – Respect for the Aged Day
  NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment     106.0

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

The GBP/USD tumbled 78 points to 1.3163 as the greenback rallied ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week. Lower inflation and lackluster jobs numbers and inaction by the BoE allowed the pound to fall most of the week. The only thing which investors will continue to pay attention to will be the economic data and any decisions made by the banks in the coming days. The market is not expecting a rate hike at this stage and if the Fed does increase the interest rate, the consequences could be dire.

Sterling, still the worst performer among major currencies since the Brexit vote, has outperformed all of its 16 major counterparts in the past month as reports from services to construction showed the UK economy was holding up better than some economists predicted.

Sterling’s hefty slide since Britain voted to leave the European Union should significantly narrow the country’s current account deficit, Bank of England policymaker Kristin Forbes said on Friday.

Speaking at a conference in Paris, Forbes said sterling’s 10 percent fall against the dollar and the euro was leading to some automatic adjustments to Britain’s current account deficit, one of the largest of any advanced economy.

“Sterling’s depreciation should improve the UK’s net foreign asset position by over 20 percent of GDP. That’s a big improvement in the UK’s net international asset position and that should alleviate concerns by international investors about the UK’s ability to pay on its net foreign asset position,” she said.

Forbes, an external member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee, was speaking at a conference on rethinking capital controls and capital flows hosted by SUERF, a forum for European central banks, regulators and academics.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

gbpusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 19, 2016

Cur. Event   Forecast Previous  
  Holiday Japan – Respect for the Aged Day
  NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment     106.0

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

 

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

The EUR/USD dipped 20 points on a quiet trading day with little data on the calendar traders focused on next week’s FOMC meeting and ongoing problems with Italian banks. The euro is trading at 1.1224 dead center of its recent trading range. The US dollar gained 20 points as traders are now expected a rate increase in the US before the new year.

Some traders and analysts expect the BOJ to push back additional easing steps, while making its government bond buying more flexible to steepen the yield curve. Others expect the BOJ to launch fresh stimulus through a further push into negative territory and increased asset purchases. The past week has been dominated by a rethink on debt markets about the outlook for central bank policy in Europe and Japan. One currency leg of that looks to be the growing lack of belief that officials can do much to weaken either the euro or yen if the U.S. Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

eurusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 19, 2016

Cur. Event   Forecast Previous  
  Holiday Japan – Respect for the Aged Day
  NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment     106.0

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

USD/CAD Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

The USD/CAD soared 49 point to 1.3205 as oil prices tumbled gold eased and the greenback soared. The ICE U.S. Dollar index, a measure of the greenback’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, was flat at 95.480.

Many are now looking ahead to meetings of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan next week. While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady, media reports have speculated that the BOJ might take action, including possibly cutting interest rates further into negative territory.

Canada’s biggest stock market tumbled more than 200 points, while the loonie also took a beating as falling oil prices piled on downward pressure. One helpful component of the Canadian Economy has been their exposure to Emerging Markets and how exports were expected to help Canada come out of its economic slump that is shown through the Citi Economic Surprise Index for Canada that is showing its worst rating since January when USD/CAD was trading in the mid-1.4000s.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

usdcad

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 19, 2016

Cur. Event   Forecast Previous  
  Holiday Japan – Respect for the Aged Day
  NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment     106.0

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

S&P 500 Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

The S&P 500 recovered 21 points to 2147.26 showing little response to the stronger US dollar as traders moved the probably of a rate increase out until December. Following yesterday’s S&P surge catalyzed by several dreadful economic news, the overnight session has seen some good old “risk off” mood which first hit European shares as a result of the previously reported $14 billion DOJ claim against Deutsche Bank, which sent Europe’s biggest bank tumbling, dragging the banking sector lower, while a continued drop in the price of oil pushed energy companies lower, and then spilling over to US equity futures which were down 10 points at last check.

The recent selloff pushed the S&P 500 below 2150, the bottom of its summer trading range. The next important trading range doesn’t begin until the S&P 500 gets into the 2120-2115 area. If they get there, though, it’s a doozy. There are no less than five distinct technical trends that converge there, said a certified market technician.

JPMorgan expects the S&P 500 to end the year at 2,000, representing a roughly 6 percent decline from its current level, making it the most bearish of its peers on the Street. In this scenario, the market leaders are poised for the biggest fall, while some sector laggards will do relatively better.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

sp-500

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 19, 2016

Cur. Event   Forecast Previous  
  Holiday Japan – Respect for the Aged Day
  NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment     106.0

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

DAX 30 Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

The DAX 30 tumbled over 111 points to trade at 10319.50 as traders moved away from equities and commodities ahead of next week’s major bank meetings.

The U.S. Justice Department proposed that Deutsche Bank AG pay $14 billion to settle a set of high-profile mortgage-securities probes stemming from the financial crisis, according to people familiar with the matter, a number that would rank among the largest of what other banks have paid to resolve similar claims and is well above what investors have been expecting. The leading German bank was trading down around 8%, while Deutsche Bank’s €1.75 billion of 6% additional Tier 1 bonds, the first notes to take losses in a crisis, fell 4 cents to 79 cents. The bank’s 650 million pounds of 7.125% notes dropped 5 pence to 81 pence on the pound on concerns the bank may be forced to shore up billions more in liquidity.

“The Deutsche Bank news kind of rattled markets,” said Jasper Lawler, an analyst at CMC Markets in London. “It just goes to show that we’re still dealing with the same old headwinds: this low-interest rate environment, which will go on for a while, and the regulatory scrutiny.”

“None of the European banks has settled with the DOJ on RMBS yet so Deutsche Bank is the first to enter negotiations with Barclays, UBS, Credit Suisse and RBS also facing this issue,” RBC analyst Fiona Warfield said in note. “We would expect Deutsche Bank’s final settlement to be significantly below the starting negotiation amount as seen at other banks although it remains uncertain where the final settlement will end up and the final impact on the capital ratios. Resolving this issue remains key for Deutsche Bank as it will give more clarity on capital, although there are a number of other moving parts – namely the Russian equities investigation and also the IPO of Postbank.”

The markets’ attention was so focused on DB in particular, and European banks in general (Italy’s perpetually insolvent Monte Paschi was halted after falling as much as 7.8%, after a report the bank’s recapitalization could be done through a private placement to institutional investors and a voluntary subordinated bonds conversion with minimum threshold, along the lines of Greek banks’ recapitalizations,

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

dax

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 19, 2016

Cur. Event   Forecast Previous  
  Holiday Japan – Respect for the Aged Day
  NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment     106.0

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

 

 

Oil Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

Crude Oil tumbled 72 cents to 43.19 and Brent Oil gave up 79 cents to 45.80 as traders looked more closely at supply and demand as global production continues to soar. Markets are not expecting much in the way of an agreement at next week producers meeting and even if the major producers agree to a production freeze they are all at the highest levels in years which will not lower global stocks.

As most of the world focuses on how unfettered oil production will weigh on prices, a few say a rebound is on the cards as the market starts to reflect a growing risk of shortages. OPEC’s strategy of keeping its taps open is leaving a smaller cushion if there’s an unexpected need for more oil. The group’s spare capacity has dwindled to the least since 2008, US government data show, while global spending cuts have diminished prospects for new output.

Prices may jump more than 35% from current levels as they start to reflect the risk of a supply squeeze, according to Citigroup. The biggest energy crash in a generation prompted the industry to cut $1trn in spending. That’s resulted in less new production and the slowing of current output as firms scrimp on technology that lengthens the life of fields.

Citigroup sees prices rising to $65 next year, while Guvnor envisions an advance to as much as $70, levels last seen in 2014.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had about 1.1 million barrels a day of spare production capacity last month, the US Energy Department estimates, compared with more than 4 million in late 2010. In 2011, after unrest in Libya cut output in that nation by about 1.5 million barrels a day, OPEC members tapped into spare capacity as oil prices shot up above $120 a barrel.

Angola pumped more that summer, while Saudi Arabia increased its own production by 1.35 million barrels a day.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

crude-oil

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 19, 2016

Cur. Event   Forecast Previous  
  Holiday Japan – Respect for the Aged Day
  NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment     106.0

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction