S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Rally After Bank Earnings

The S&P 500 has rallied relatively significantly during the trading session on Tuesday, reaching towards the 3000 level by noon local time. Ultimately, there is a lot of noise above here and extending towards the 3025 level, so we aren’t out of the woods yet, but clearly it looks as if the market is trying to knock on the high levels. Short-term pullbacks intraday will probably continue to be looked at as buying opportunities as one of the mantras on Wall Street is “the Fed has your back”, and that of course drives stocks higher longer term.

S&P 500 Video 16.10.19

To the downside, I believe that the 50 day EMA which is currently trading at the 2950 level should offer enough support that people continue to look towards this market for gains. At this point, I believe that there will more than likely be a nice “zone of support” between the 2950 level and the 2940 level. Ultimately, this is a market that we need to pay attention to above, because if we do break out to the upside and above the recent highs, it can take off towards the 3100 level. This is certainly the time of year it could, because fall earnings season tends to be a rather impulsive move just waiting to happen.

To the downside, if we break down below the 2940 level then it’s likely that we go looking towards the 200 day EMA which is currently trading at the 2880 I am bullish, but I recognize that looking for value on pullbacks probably continues to work best.

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Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Continue To Consolidate

Silver markets are likely to continue to be very noisy, as the global economic situation is the same. If that’s going to be the case, then it makes quite a bit of sense that the market is essentially waiting to figure out how certain things play out, including not the least of which will be the US/China trade relations, Brexit, and of course central banks around the world cutting interest rates and liquefy the markets. As long as that’s going to be the reality, gold and silver both should get some type of bid.

SILVER Video 16.10.19

To the downside, the $17.00 level should offer a significant amount of support, as the market has certainly seen a strong reaction every time he gets close to that level. If we were to break down below there, then the 200 day EMA comes into play. The 200 day EMA is currently found at the $16.28 level, and obviously a longer-term signal could be formed if we were to break down below there.

To the upside, the $18 level is obvious resistance, opening up the door to the $18.75 level, and then possibly even the $19.75 level. I still believe in the value of silver though, and I do like buying short-term pullbacks as they give us an opportunity to take advantage of the longer-term trend. Central banks, geopolitical issues, and of course recessionary fear should continue to power this market higher. August was 15% in gains, and since then we have been pulling back slightly to perhaps bring sanity back to the market. That pullback is just about over.

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Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Bounce Back

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil market initially fell during Tuesday but found enough support near the $52.50 level to turn around and form a supportive looking candle. Ultimately, what I find interesting about this is that we have seen quite a bit of buying pressure at $52.50 over the last week or so anyway, and of course the uptrend line underneath will have its influence as well. All things being equal, the $51 level kicks off significant support down to the $50 level, and therefore it makes sense that value hunters have come back into the market.

Oil Forecast Video 16.10.19

Brent

Brent markets also fell rather hard during the Tuesday session initially but has found support just as the WTI market has. Ultimately, this is a market that is probably getting a bit of a boost due to the fact that there are still tensions with the Iranians, and of course there’s also the possibility that the Brexit gets done and that could drive up demand in theory as well. Either way, there is significant support underneath, and that’s probably the most important thing to pay attention to. The 50 day EMA is close to the $60.75 level and breaking above there could open up the door to the $62.50 level, possibly even the $64 level after that. To the downside, I see the $56 level as the beginning of a massive amount of support that extends down to the $55 level. Ultimately, I believe that we are rallying from here to form a larger range.

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Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Rally Again

Natural gas markets have shown signs of strengthening for the third day in a row, and now are clear of those wicks that had caused a bit of concern late last week. With that being the case, it looks as if the sellers are starting to get trapped and eventually that could spring the “Winter pop” that I’ve been looking for. The $2.20 level looks to be important, and as long as that’s going to be the case it’s likely that we will see buyers on dips in that general vicinity.

NATGAS Video 16.10.19

Ultimately, this market probably will try to return to the $2.70 level, but it may take some time to get there. What we need to see is some type of cold forecast in the United States to have people assuming there is going to be much more demand. That will eventually happen, and when it does it tends to be a very explosive move. Pullbacks at this point should continue to offer plenty of value, especially near the $2.20 level, which has been so stringently defended since we broke above there back in late August. Remember, we are trading the November contract and that tends to mean higher pricing. At this point, I still believe in buying pullbacks as natural gas should continue to find plenty of buyers at these extraordinarily low levels. This is a seasonal trade, so don’t get too buried into the trade with huge amounts of funds, but it is a way that I pad my account every year.

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Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Continue To Test Wedge

Gold markets have been a bit negative during the trading session again during the day on Tuesday but has also continued to see buyers at the uptrend line that I have marked on the chart. With that being the case it makes sense that we are going to continue the overall move to the upside, and therefore it’s likely that the market will continue to be attracted to the $1500 level, which is a bit of a fulcrum and essentially “fair value” for this market. Overall, this is a market that also features the 50 day EMA right through the last couple of candles, so I think that we are getting a lot of “push/pull” and therefore it’s likely that we will eventually try to reach to the upside. However, breaking down below that uptrend line could change a lot of things.

Gold Technical Analysis Video 16.10.19

If we were to break down below that uptrend line, then the $1450 level is very likely to be an area where we could see a bit of support as well. Below there, then you are starting to talk about reaching down towards the 200 day EMA. That being said, I am not a huge fan of shorting Gold at this point.

All things being equal, there is a lot of different pieces out there that could continue to push gold higher, not the least of which is the fact that the central banks around the world continue to cut interest rates and of course liquefy the marketplace. With that in mind, and of course a lot of concerns with the US/China trade situation and the global slowdown, goal should continue to attract quite a bit of money, even though lately it has been a bit rough.

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USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Continues To Pressure Japanese Yen

The US dollar pulled back a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, showing signs of resiliency by turning around as we approached the crucial 200 day EMA. At this point, it’s very likely that the market is going to try to break above that level, which of course would be an extraordinarily bullish sign. With this in mind, I believe that the market breaking above the highs from the Friday session could open up the door to the ¥110 level, although there is a significant amount of noise just above the 200 day EMA from previous trading. With that in mind, the market could get an external catalyst, perhaps due to earnings season.

USD/JPY Video 16.10.19

The market should find a bit of support based upon the last couple of candlesticks, but if we suddenly get a shift to a major “risk off” scenario, breaking down below the hammer from the Monday session could open up quite a bit of selling. It certainly looks as if the resiliency is something to be paid attention to though, and therefore a breakout is something that you would have to pay a serious amount of attention to. Ultimately, this is a market that should make a relatively strong move sooner or later, which will certainly have a lot to do with earnings season and the general attitude of traders as far as risk appetite is concerned. Keep in mind that the Brexit, US/China trade talks, and a whole host of other issues could have traders running to the safety of the Japanese yen. All things being equal though, it looks as if the buyers are really pressing their luck.

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GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Continues To Bounce Around

The British pound has shown a significant amount of volatility over the last week or so, and the last couple of sessions have been completely counter to each other. This typically means that the market is trying to catch its breath and will probably consolidate overall. At this point, the market is likely to find a lot of back-and-forth, and it will of course continue to be very concerned about the Brexit. Obviously, the headlines will come fast and furiously over the next couple of weeks, so it’s difficult to get excited about this market for any significant amount of time.

GBP/USD Video 16.10.19

Ultimately, short-term back and forth range bound systems should continue to work for a short-term smash and grab type of trades, with the obvious ceiling being the last couple of days. If we were to break above the highs from the last couple of sessions, then the market probably goes looking towards the 1.28 level. Otherwise, we could break down towards the 1.25 level which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and it should also be noted that the 200 day EMA is slicing through the last couple of candles as well. Ultimately, this is a market that is trying to figure out what to do after the recent explosion higher, so that being said it makes quite a bit of sense that we will see a major “flush lower” if we break down below the 1.25 handle.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Consolidating

The British pound has been very noisy as of late, obviously due to the Brexit and the never-ending headlines. With that being the case, it makes quite a bit of sense that we will continue to see a lot of confusion in this pair as it is so sensitive to risk appetite, and of course is going to be very sensitive to the Brexit itself.

GBP/JPY  Video 16.10.19

Keep in mind that the Japanese yen is a major safety currency, so if there are concerns around the global financial system, then typically money will run towards it. Brexit certainly falls in that scenario, but there are also other concerns such as the US/China trade talks, and many other things like that. At this point in time the technicals probably are going to lead the way as the 200 day EMA is right in the middle of trading action, and therefore a lot of longer-term traders are going to be looking at this as both potential support and resistance. If we break above the candle stick on Friday, then I suspect that this pair is going to go screaming to the ¥140 level.

On the other hand, if we were to break down below the hammer from the session on Monday and of course take out the psychologically important ¥135 level, then it’s likely that this market breaks down towards the 50 day EMA which is currently trading at the ¥133 handle. All things being equal, if you are short-term trader then you need to be looking at range bound traits. If you are a longer-term trader then you need to see either Monday or Friday get broken.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Rolls Over Again

The Euro fell during the trading session after initially trying to rally during the Tuesday session. The 50 day EMA has offered a bit of resistance, and it does look very much like a market that is trying to break down towards the lows again. The market has been very choppy but more importantly, it has been very negative.

EUR/USD Forecast Video 16.10.19

The 1.10 level of course will attract a lot of attention, as the round figure typically do. This is an area that has been crossed several times though, so the resiliency of the 1.10 level probably has lost some bigger. With that being the case, I do think that we continue to slice lower and test the lows yet again. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is far above, so that typically means that we are going to go looking towards the 100% Fibonacci retracement level.

The Euro of course suffers at the hands of a potential recession, while the United States has been growing the entire time. With this, money continues to flow in the United States, and of course Brexit will have its way with the Euro and all things European related currently. All things being equal, this is a market that is simply continuing to grind back and forth, showing signs of choppiness but one thing that has been a longer-term factor is that sellers continue to return. With that, it’s very likely that we will see rallies faded, just as we have seen at the crucial 50 day EMA. The short-term ceiling above is the 1.11 level, so that should be paid attention to as well.

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AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Breaks Down

The Australian dollar has rallied initially during the trading session on Tuesday only to fail again. By doing so, the market looked bullish at first, but then turned around to break down and show signs of exhaustion. The 0.6750 level of course is an area that causes quite a bit of interest as it has been “fair value” for the market as we go back and forth. At this point in time, the 0.67 level is the beginning of massive support, while the 0.68 level has offered significant resistance.

AUD/USD Video 16.10.19

Looking at the choppiness of this market, it’s very likely that the Australian dollar continues to be very noisy and difficult to deal with, unless of course you are looking at a “reversion of the mean” on a short-term timeframe. Keep in mind that the pair is highly sensitive to the US/China trade situation, and that of course continues to be very noisy. With that being the case, it’s very unlikely that this pair can take off to the upside for anything along the lines of a significant trade without the trade deal coming back into vogue. Right now, it looks as if we are nowhere near getting some type of solution, so with that it is likely that we continue to see a lot of choppy action, without a whole lot conviction one way or another. With this, I feel that this pair is still only to be traded by those who can watch short-term charts.

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S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Choppy To Start Week

The S&P 500 has gone back and forth during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to dance around just below the 2800 level. At this point, it looks a whole lot like the market is trying to figure out where to go next, but ultimately this is a scenario that is based upon the Americans and the Chinese doing nothing, and now it appears that the Chinese or even wanting to talk more before signing the first phase of the agreement which still doesn’t look to be like much. In other words, last week was a waste of everyone’s time.

S&P 500 Video 15.10.19

Enter earnings season. This is also going to cause a lot of volatility and as we are closer to the highs of the market than the low, it makes quite a bit of sense that we will continue to see a lot of volatility, and probably more of a downward slant than anything else. Quite frankly, there’s no reason to think that suddenly everything is fine as the market would be ready to take off forever. At this point, I would anticipate more of the same range bound nonsense that we have been in for the last 18 months. Admittedly, it is slightly bullish, but only just. With that, looking for a dip to take advantage of would probably be the best way to go in this market, as it would be an opportunity to pick up a little bit of value.

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Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Continue To Be Quiet

Silver markets have done very little during the trading session on Monday as traders came back to work, and we presently trade just above the 50 day EMA. This is a market that of course is going to be a bit flat as we hang around this area. The 50 day EMA does in fact tend to offer a lot of directionality, as it is both support and resistance. That being the case, it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of noise around this market, especially as risk appetite is all over the place. As risk appetite continues to fail, that of course is good for precious metals as it might be a way to get away from the dangers of fiat currency and of course stocks.

SILVER Video 15.10.19

Looking at the chart, the $17.00 level is obvious support, and I think it will continue to be crucial as far as where the market is going to go next. As long as we can stay above the $70.00 level I feel that the market can continue to find buyers on these dips. Alternately, if the market were to show signs of bullish pressure, especially if we can break above the $18.00 level, I would be more than willing to start buying at that point. I do believe in the longer-term uptrend but obviously we have taken a bit of a beating as of late. Ultimately, this is a “buy on the dips” type of market longer-term but obviously it has struggled as of late.

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Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Pull Back

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil market pulled back from the psychologically significant $55 level, to reach down and fill a slight gap from the Friday open, but then reached below the $53 level. That is a significant amount of support just waiting to be had underneath there, so it’s not a huge surprise that we have bounced a bit from there. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to be very volatile, but at this point we are close enough to structural support that I do believe that the buyers are going to step back in and trying to take control.

Crude Oil Video 15.10.19

Brent

Brent markets also have pulled back a bit from the 50 day EMA, an area that of course will always attract a lot of attention from a technical standpoint. Ultimately, we have filled a bit of a gap from the Friday open, and now have bounced a bit at the $59 level. At this point, the 50 day EMA will of course cause quite a bit of attention, so as long as that’s going to be the case, and a lot of longer-term traders pay attention to it, it makes sense that it will be difficult to break above. This of course is a very negative looking candle stick at first glance, but the fact that the gap is trying to hold tells me that there are plenty of buyers underneath and that we will eventually push to the upside. This doesn’t mean that it starts a major uptrend, rather that we are simply trying to find balance between the $55 level on the bottom and the $70 level on the top.

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Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Fail To Hang Onto Gains

Natural gas markets gapped higher to kick off the trading session on Monday, shot towards the $2.30 level and then gave back all of those gains to form a rather ugly looking candle stick. That being said though, they did wipe out a lot of stop loss orders just above the couple of inverted hammers from late last week. Even though this is a very bearish candle stick on the chart, the reality is a lot of damage has been done to those sellers and therefore it’s likely that we will eventually start to see the market break to the upside. As things stand right now, the gap down to the $2.30 level should be thought of as potential support, and that could continue to push this market higher.

NATGAS Video 15.10.19

Slightly colder temperatures have hit the northern part of the United States, although not necessarily freezing. Nonetheless, this is the first sign that winter is coming and will of course push this market to the upside given enough time. Ultimately, this is a market that is very seasonally driven and that’s essentially what I’m counting on. The catch of course is to wait for the bullish pressure that the winter almost always brings. If we can get that, then this market can really start to take off. On a break above the candle stick for the trading session on Monday, that would not only be bullish as a positive candle stick, but it would show the stops being run from several of the previous trading sessions.

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Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Continue To Go Flat

Gold markets did very little during Monday session, as we hang about just below the $1500 level. That is an area that obviously causes a lot of psychological resistance, but it is more importantly the middle of the huge wedge that we find the market in right now. With this, it’s obvious that we will need to see some type of resolution to this pattern, as it seems like the market simply don’t know what to do. There is a major uptrend line underneath that will of course attract a lot of attention, so it’s worth paying attention to. Ultimately, the market will eventually break out of this wedge, and then it should show a significant amount of momentum once we get there.

Gold Prices Video 15.10.19

At this point, it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of risk appetite being thrown around the market by not only the Chinese and Americans, but also fears of a global slowdown. Central banks around the world continue to cut interest rates, so I think that the longer-term attitude continues to favor the uptrend given enough time, but obviously we need some type of catalyst to get going. In general, if the market can break above the downtrend line, it’s very likely that we could go looking towards the $1540 level, and then eventually the $1560 level. After that, the $1600 level would be targeted. On the chance that we break down through the uptrend line, then the next target to the downside would be the $1450 level where I would expect to see significant support.

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USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Runs Into 200 Day EMA

The US dollar has gone back and forth against the Japanese yen during trading on Monday, as the 200 day EMA has offered far too much in the way of resistance to get above. By doing so, it shows that perhaps the market is ready for a bit of a pullback. Overall, this is a market that continues to be very sensitive to risk appetite, and of course the US/China situation is going to continue to be first and foremost among the thoughts that drive this pair.

USD/JPY Video 15.10.19

After the Chinese left Washington DC, they have suggested that the deal that was talked about will be signed until there is more talks. In other words, it was essentially a big “nothing burger” which is something that the market probably should have known to begin with. However, hope springs eternal and traders are now waiting to see some type of conclusion to the situation. It doesn’t look very likely anytime soon though, so at this point it makes sense that the market would pull back just a bit and reach towards the ¥107 level underneath, which is massive support.

The market will move on the next headline coming out of either Trump or China, so that has to be taken into account but the ¥108.50 level has been reliable as far as its resistance, so it does make even more sense that we pull back from here. A break above this level of course would be rather strong on a daily close, perhaps sending this market towards the ¥110 level, but that would need some type of positive catalyst to make it happen.

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GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Runs Into Major Resistance

The British pound fell during most of the trading session on Monday as traders ponder the idea of breaking above the 200 day EMA. Regardless of what you believe about the Brexit situation, it’s relatively obvious that the market has got ahead of itself in the last couple of days. While there will continue to be a lot of noisy trading in this general vicinity, a break down below the 1.25 level could open up the door to a recapturing of the 50 day EMA by the sellers. The 200 day EMA of course is a longer-term signal as to trend, so that will be paid close attention to as well.

GBP/USD Video 15.10.19

To the upside, the 1.28 level will offer a significant amount of resistance that will be difficult to overcome, and as a result a break above there would have to be paid attention to for a potential longer-term move. If we did break above there, then the market is almost certainly going to go looking towards the 1.30 level. It will almost need some type of good news to make that happen though, because quite frankly we have gone so far in such a short amount of time is difficult to imagine a scenario where traders have that much more juice to push the market to the upside. At the very least, a pullback is needed over the next couple of days as markets can’t go in one direction forever.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound pulls back from 200 day EMA

This pair is essentially going to be a very difficult pair to get a grasp on at times, because the pair obviously has to deal with Brexit which is a complete mess. Brexit is all over the place, although there have been some more positive comments as of late, and that of course helps the British pound in general. This pair is a bit more thin than GBP/USD, so it will probably move rather quickly. That being the case, the market could be rather explosive in one direction or the other.

GBP/JPY  Video 15.10.19

The ¥135 level underneath should be supportive, so a break down below there would lead to much deeper losses. However, at this point the market also has to deal with the overall risk appetite, which is a bit perplexing at the moment as the US/China trade situation has continued to stall and produce nothing. With that being the case it’s a bit surprising that this market would show signs of bullish pressure, as Brexit has obviously gotten this market in overdrive.

If we were to break above the top of the candle stick for Friday, that opens up the door to the ¥140 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. At this point, we are essentially between two major levels, so it’s likely that the market will continue to be very noisy in general as the market has a lot to digest.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Flat

The Euro has done very little during the trading session on Monday, as the market is sitting at the 50 day EMA. This is obviously an area that is going to cause some issues, as market participants are looking at both the technical analysis and wondering exactly what just happened in the United States during the talks with the Chinese. Essentially, nothing was settled so it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where it is suddenly a huge “risk on” type of situation.

EUR USD Forecast Video 15.10.19

The Chinese have stated that they wish to talk more before signing the first phase of the agreement, signaling that nothing has changed. Ultimately, that will continue to cause major issues in risk appetite around the world and obviously have an influence on the US dollar as it should strengthen while money flows into the bond markets. On the other hand, this pair also has to deal with the Brexit situation which seems to be a little less optimistic than previously reported. Because of this, it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of choppy behavior when it comes to this pair, as much like the US/China situation, it comes down to the next rumor or headline that crosses Twitter as to where this pair goes.

Ultimately, we are in a downtrend and that’s probably the easiest way to look at this chart. The 1.11 level above is significant resistance, and although this market has rallied quite nicely over the last couple of sessions, it should be pointed out that the daily candlesticks continue to form long wicks to the upside, and that is something that should not be ignored.

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AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Pulls Back To Fair Value

The Australian dollar has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday but gave back the gains as soon as the 50 day EMA was tested. Because of this, it makes quite a bit of sense that the market would continue to reach towards the 0.6750 level as it is essentially “fair value” for the reset consolidation since July. The market continues to see a lot of choppiness in general, because quite frankly there isn’t any news to drive the markets in one direction or the other. As long as that’s the case, it’s likely that the market will continue to see resistance at the 50 day EMA with a significant support level at the 0.67 level.

AUD/USD Video 15.10.19

At this point, it’s probably going to be a short-term trading type of situation, going back and forth in little increments. I have been aiming for 20 or 30 pips every time I traded this pair in a back-and-forth manner. I don’t think that changes anytime soon as the market participants have to worry about whether or not there is going to be a trade agreement, whether or not there is going to be global growth, or even just good economic news in general. With that being the case, I think that this pair continues to chop around in the same range it been in for several months and therefore short-term 20 to 30 pips exchanges going back and forth in a range bound system makes the most sense.

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