The S&P 500 has fallen a bit during the trading week to break down through the 200-Week EMA. Ultimately, this is a market that made a fresh, new low, that of course is a very negative turn of events as well. If we break down below the candlestick, then it’s likely that we could go to the 3500 level. The 3500 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that will attract a lot of attention.
At this juncture, if we can break above the top of the candlestick for the week, it’s likely that the market could go looking to the 4000 level. The 4000 level of course is an area that would cause a significant amount of headline noise, and of course selling pressure. Ultimately, I think that any signs of exhaustion should get sold into as we continue to see a lot of negativity in general. That being said, the market has gotten a bit overdone, so I do think that it is a situation where we have more of a “fade the rally” type of attitude.
Interest rates in the United States continue to climb long term, therefore I think it’s a situation where we will eventually have to make a bigger decision, but I do think that the bigger decision is to go lower. After all, there’s just too much ugliness out there to think that markets can take off to the upside for no apparent reason. Unless the Federal Reserve actually pivots, I just don’t see what would turn things around. That being said, I think this is a scenario where you are looking for an opportunity to short from higher levels.
Silver markets have fallen a bit during the trading sessions that make up the previous week, as the $18 level has been important more than once. Ultimately, this is a situation where the market continues to see a lot of volatility, and of course noisy behavior to say the least. The market has a negative correlation to the US dollar and the interest rates coming out of the bond market. Ultimately, you also have to keep in mind that this is a market that is highly sensitive to industrial demand, as there is a lot of usage of silver in the manufacturing sector.
You should also keep in mind that the silver market has seen the $18 level offer a lot of support previously, and if we could break down below there, it’s likely that the market could break much lower, perhaps reaching to the $16 level, but even the $15 level. The markets will continue to be noisy, and of course we have a downtrend line this is just above.
The $20.00 level could be an area of significant resistance, so therefore I think signs of exhaustion could be difficult to overcome. That being said, we did form a hammer for the week, so that is obviously a bullish sign, and this of course is a situation where certain traders will be looking to it as a buying opportunity.
However, if we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then it’s likely that the silver market will collapse, because breaking down below support is one thing, but also breaking down below a hammer is another thing as well.
Silver Price Forecast Video for the Week of 03.10.22
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has gone back and forth during the course of the trading week, as we hang around the $80 level. The $80 level of course is an area that people will be paying close attention to, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that had previously been important. It’s also worth noting that the United States government supposedly is willing to buy crude oil near the $80 level to refill the vote buying operation coming out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. At this point, I think we have a situation where there is a little bit of the squishy floor just below, but I still think that the demand equation doesn’t look good. Because of this, rallies probably get faded.
Brent Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis
Brent has also been a bit noisy during the week, as we continue to see a lot of noise overall. The market is likely to see a lot of back and forth, but I think what people are really paying close attention to is the fact that there is a serious demand issue at the moment, people will be curious as to whether or not the economy will demand more crude oil.
I don’t necessarily think it will, but a short-term rally could show selling opportunities until we break above the 50-Week EMA. I don’t necessarily think that happens, but of course it is something that we have to keep the back of our minds as anything is possible in the markets, especially as volatile as they have been. Ultimately, the question now we have to ask is if this has been a nice correction, or are we starting to sell off again?
Crude Oil Prices Forecast Video for the Week of 03.10.22
Natural gas markets have been very negative for a while, as we have seen so much in the way of demand destruction. The question now is whether or not we can continue to see that, and I think although that’s very possible, we do need to bounce a bit as we continue to see a lot of volatility in most markets around the world. At this point, I believe that the $8.00 level could be a significant barrier, so breaking above there could change a lot of things.
However, it’s worth noting that the random explosion of Russian pipelines in the European Union did very little to lift the price of natural gas, showing you just how exhausted this market is after the chaos that has ensued all year. The situation in the natural gas area is a bit interesting to pay attention to, because European countries supposedly have enough to last through the winter. That being said, the question then becomes what happens after that? Russian gas is not coming anytime soon, and quite frankly the Americans cannot supply enough LNG to keep Europe afloat.
Something’s going to break sooner or later, but at this point I think we probably have more downward pressure than up, pending a short-term relief rally. If we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the week, then it opens up the possibility of a move down to the $6.00 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area where we have seen some action at previously. “Market memory” comes to mind in that region.
Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for the Week of 03.10.22
The S&P 500 has gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday, as the E-mini contract has seen very little in the way of volatility. Perhaps it is a matter of the markets being exhausted after the last couple weeks, or perhaps we are trying to form some type of base. Nonetheless, even if we do rally from here, it’s likely that we would see plenty of selling pressure near the 3800 level, maybe even the 50-Day EMA which is near the 3940 level.
Ultimately, this is a market that is going to continue to see a lot of selling pressure, therefore I think we have a situation where the rallies will be faded. After all, earnings are miserable, and the earnings outlook is even worse. If we break down below the 3600 level, then the market is likely to go looking to the 3500 level. Ultimately, this is a situation that has been difficult for a while, and ultimately, I think we are taking a little bit of a breather after this plunge lower.
Either way, I don’t have any interest in trying to get overly aggressive one way or the other, at least not until we get into the next week, as traders will start to focus on something else. Ultimately, it’s interesting that the Friday session was rather indecisive, as there just is no willingness to start buying. The market will continue to look at the overall economic situation with trepidation, so at this point in time I think any bullish pressure should be squashed rather quickly. The US dollar spiking of course will also have its own effect on this market.
Silver markets have rallied significantly during the trading session on Friday as we continue to see a lot of volatility around the markets in general. It’s worth noting that the downtrend line has been intact since late spring, and so far has been rather crucial. At this point, the market is likely to continue seeing downward pressure and a squeeze, and in fact you can also make an argument that the market has continually found plenty of negativity.
The 50-Day EMA sits right there with the downtrend line, and therefore I think it is a major resistance barrier that’s going to be difficult to break above. Beyond that, we also have the $20 level that offers resistance, and therefore it’s likely that we would see plenty of sellers in that area as well. In other words, it’s going to take a lot of effort to get through all of that, perhaps some type of major fundamental change in the overall fundamental situation and of course central-bank attitudes.
On the other hand, we could drop from here and go down to the $18.00 level, which is the bottom of the overall market. Breaking down below that level then opens up the floodgates for a lot of selling pressure. Keep in mind that silver has a negative correlation to the US dollar and interest rates, so keep an eye on those as well. After all, silver is a highly sensitive metal when it comes to industrial demand, and therefore it’s likely that we continue to see an economic slowdown work against the value of this market. Ultimately, this is a very negative market and that has not changed.
Gold markets initially plunged lower during the week, but as we are closing out the Friday session, we find ourselves nearly $1600 level, which is an area that has been important more than once. Because of this, I would expect to see a certain amount of pushback in this general reason, but I think what you are probably going to have to do is drill down to the daily chart, because quite frankly there is so much noise out there. With that being said, I do anticipate that we will continue to see a little bit of follow-through, followed by a selloff.
If the US dollar starts to spike again, that will be exactly what sins gold tumbling. The $1680 level of course is rather important, but even more important would be the $1600 level, because if we were to break down below there we would then send this market to much lower levels. The market breaking down below that area opens up the $1500 level, and then possibly even as low as the $1250 level.
We are at extreme lows though, at least for the time being so recovery rally does make all of the sense in the world. And I think will end up offering another selling opportunity before it’s all said and done. I have no interest in buying this market until we break well above the $1750 level, and even then, I would need to see some type of change when it comes to the attitude of central banks and of course the fundamental situation altogether. Gold does not operate in a vacuum, so simple chart reading will not do the trick.
Gold Price Predictions Video for the Week of 03.10.22
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has drifted a little bit lower during the day on Friday, testing the $80 level. This is obviously a psychologically important figure, so it should not be a huge surprise to see the market participants come into the picture and try to lift it up. If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then it opens up a move down to $75. That being said, the market is likely to continue seeing a significant amount of noisy behavior, so I do think that it’s a situation where the rallies will be faded as people are starting to worry about demand again.
Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis
Brent markets also have seen a bit of negativity during the day, but ultimately I think this is a scenario where you have the sellers coming into this picture every time he tries to rally, at least until we break above the 50-Day EMA. The $90 level of course will have a certain amount of psychology attached to it as well, so keep that in mind. For the longest time, we have been drifting lower in a descending channel, I think that continues to be the overall attitude of this market.
We recently formed the so-called “death cross”, which of course is a very negative turn of events as well. The $80 level underneath is an area that I think will continue to be important, so you do need to pay close attention to that as well. If we were to break down below the $80 level, it could send this market reeling.
Natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Friday as we continue to hang around the 200-Day EMA. This is an indicator that of course attracts a lot of attention, so with that being said I think it’s only a matter time before somebody has to make a bigger decision. If we do rally from here, I believe that the rally is probably somewhat limited, despite the fact that Russian gas lines are now exploding randomly across the European continent. With this, I think that the 50-Day EMA could be a target and could be where we start to see sellers coming back into the market.
The alternate scenario of course is that the market breaks down below the lows of the last couple of days, perhaps making a move towards the $6.00 level, an area that of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. This area would attract a lot of attention, and therefore I think we’ve got a scenario where it is only a matter of time before buyers would try to support the market in that area. Regardless, I think the only thing you can count on is that we are sitting sideways and likely to find some type of bigger move sooner rather than later.
Natural gas markets will continue to be in their own world, as we have so many different moving pieces at the moment that it is almost impossible to pin anything down. However, I do think that the fact that the Nordstream sabotage hasn’t moved price says quite a bit.
Gold markets have rallied again during the trading session on Friday to reach the $1680 level before turning around. Ultimately, this is a market that I think we’ll see a lot of noise, so I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see some type of selling pressure. That being said, the real move probably happens early in the week, as exhaustion comes into the picture. The area between here and the $1700 level continues to be important, and the fact that the US dollar has been overbought, might help gold show signs of life.
The 50-Day EMA is near the $1725 level and is dropping. Ultimately, this is a market that will look at that as a resistance barrier, so at this point in time, I think that we have a situation where exhaustion will breed nice trading opportunities, but in the short term I think a lot of people were more than willing to fade the serious signs of exhaustion. Ultimately, I think the market eventually goes looking to the exhaustion to get selling pressure to start yet again.
The gold market will be paying close attention to the bond market and interest rates, due to the fact that the rising interest rates make the idea of putting money into gold less attractive, as there is no real return. Ultimately, this is a situation where we continue to see plenty of volatility, but nothing has changed overall, and I think that the fundamental situation continues to remain the same. The $1625 level is an area of significant support, so therefore breaking below there opens up a floodgate of more selling pressure.
British Pound vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis
If there was one currency pair that destroyed a multitude of currency traders accounts this week, it was this one. I shudder to think how many people got blown out during the course of the week, but at the same time there were almost certainly some very lucky individuals. That being said, this is a very dangerous place at this moment.
As long as there are a lot of concerns out there when it comes to the British pound, it’s difficult to get overly bullish of this pair. Quite frankly, if I want to short the Japanese yen, I might do it again something a little bit more reliable like the US dollar or the Swiss franc. Yes, I recognize how big the turnaround has been, but that’s exactly my point, it’s overdone. On the other hand, if we see the Japanese yen suddenly strengthened, this pair will almost certainly get handed its head, as the British pound is so unstable at the moment anyway.
The Bank of England is essentially panicking, as they are buying bonds and raising rates simultaneously. This is the look of a central bank that has lost control, so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. Either way, you are best advised to either leave this pair alone or use very small position sizing. Volatility could be a killer in this pair, so you need to think about your trading account first and foremost and focus less on the potentially huge moves that could make you a very lucky person.
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar has plunged a bit during the trading week but found enough support near the 0.64 level to bounce a bit. By doing so, the market looks as if it is ready to rally some, with the 0.67 level above being a major resistance barrier. The area being broken above would make a huge statement, but at this point I just don’t see how the Aussie starts to climb against the US dollar. I think this is a simple matter of the pair being oversold, and because of this I have no interest in chasing it down here. Unfortunately, that probably means sitting on the sidelines for a week or 2, waiting for value in the greenback.
The alternate scenario is that we break down through the bottom of the hammer, which of course is very negative. In that situation, we would see the market fall toward the 0.60 level underneath, perhaps even lower. However, I don’t think that we are quite yet in the panic phase that we would need to be to start seeing that.
This is a market that will continue to be noisy and difficult, but at the end of the day I think it’s also a market that favors the downside more than anything else. Trying to pick the bottom of a market is very difficult, and just because you have seen a hammer form does not mean that you are there. I suspect at this point the only thing you can probably count on is a lot of volatility, which is quite typical for this pair anyway. I’m looking for “cheap US dollars” on some type of bounce.
The British pound initially rallied during the trading session on Friday but found the 50-Day EMA a bit too much to overcome. Ultimately, this is a market that I think given enough time will continue to see quite a bit of pressure, but you can see just how violently we overreacted to the celling. I think that’s going to continue to be the game here, due to the fact that the British pound has so many issues around it, and then of course you have the Japanese yen making its own noise.
At this point, I think you’ve got a scenario where this is going to be extraordinarily volatile, so the most important thing you can do is to keep your position size reasonable as there will be a lot of potential for trouble during the next few weeks.
Rallies at this point in time would be suspicious, unless of course the Japanese yen itself starts to come undone. The fact that we could not hang on to gains makes quite a bit of sense, because this is not exactly a “risk on environment” from a global standpoint. I do believe that we have a scenario where the situation is going to get worse before it gets better, so even if we do see the Japanese yen get hammered, I suspect this is probably a market that I will avoid, and I would be a buyer of something like the Swiss franc or the US dollar against the Japanese yen. The overall attitude should remain erratic, but I still think this is a dangerous market by any stretch of the imagination.
The Austrian dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to see a significant amount of volatility. Quite frankly, this is the market that I think will eventually find a way to rally and then see sellers, which is exactly where I want to be. I would like to pick up “cheap US dollars” when I get an opportunity, but I also recognize that the market moves on its own time, and therefore you do not necessarily know when you’re going to get that opportunity.
The 0.67 level above is the hard “ceiling in the market”, but I don’t necessarily know that we get there anytime soon. We may have to accept the fact that shorting might have to be done at lower levels. Regardless, this is a market that is oversold so at the very least you would expect to see a significant amount of consolidation before we continue lower. Breaking down below the 0.67 level was a major turn of events, and therefore shows just how negative this market is. Given enough time, I would anticipate that area to be very difficult to overcome. As we are hanging around the 0.65 level, I think it makes sense that we go back and forth.
Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly levered to commodities, as well as the Asian economy. Both of those are in serious trouble at the moment, so it does make sense that the Aussies will continue to see their currency dropped. As long as we are in a major “risk off environment”, it’s difficult to imagine this currency pair getting overly bullish anytime soon.
US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis
The US dollar has rallied again against the Japanese Jen, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior overall. That being said, I believe that the market is probably going to see a lot of reasons to go higher, but the Bank of Japan intervening recently of course has had a huge effect on the psychology. Either way, central-bank interventions typically do not work for the long term, so I believe we are more likely than not going to see the ¥145 level be broken. If we do break above there, then it opens up a whole new world for this market.
That being said, the one thing that you do not want to see is massive momentum. After all, the Bank of Japan got involved for that exact reason, so I do think that we have a situation where we will be looking for dips to get involved, but you also need to keep in mind that the market is a little overextended, so I do think that consolidation is not necessarily a bad thing. In other words, I remain bullish, but I also recognize that we have come a long way in a very short amount of time. After all, we started the year closer to the ¥113 level.
That’s a huge move in the currency markets, and therefore the occasional breather will probably be needed. The ¥140 level underneath should be a massive support level from what I see, so if we were to break down below there we may enter a bigger pullback, but right now that is what I am choosing to use as my “floor in the market.”
British Pound vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis
The British pound has gone back and forth during the trading week, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. The Bank of England has stepped into the market this week to try to drive down interest rates in the bond market, but at the same time, we also have seen a promise to raise rates, so it’s a bit schizophrenic in its behavior. This is not something that’s going to be very conducive to higher exchange rates over the longer-term, but we probably have a little further to go when you look at the weekly chart. After all, we have plunged lower, and markets do not move in one direction forever.
I would be very interested in shorting this pair closer to the 1.15 level, but I don’t know if we get there. Quite frankly, the US dollar continues to swallow almost everything, and I think that’s going to be the main story going forward. It is not a situation where I think we’ve got a lot of good news just waiting to happen, so I think you have to look at this through the prism of fading rallies, but I’d like to see more of a rally to take advantage of before I get too aggressive. In the short term, I will probably look at this through the prism of opportunities to sell the British pound against other currencies, using this as a relative strength indicator of sorts for Pound Sterling.
The Euro has gone back and forth during the trading week, and showed a significant amount of support near the 0.95 level. Ultimately, the market is likely to continue seeing a lot of noise, as we had gotten a bit oversold. The parity level above should offer a significant amount of resistance, and for what it is worth, the 50-Day EMA on the daily chart of course is a significant barrier.
All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility, but at the end of the day, this is a market that is still very negative, so this is not going to be a situation where I’d be a buyer, at least not until something changes from a stronger standpoint. For example, the market will almost certainly have some type of relief rally again, but the European Union still struggle overall, and the fact that they are now going to have to worry even more about natural gas, I just don’t see how the economy takes off.
On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, you have the Federal Reserve which continues to tighten policy. Idea that the Euro suddenly turns round is laughable, and quite frankly I think we have much further to go. The European Union is in a significant crisis, with industries on the continent starting to close due to energy concerns. With this, I believe that we continue to see more of the same, more of a “fade the rally” type of situation.
The US dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday as we continue to threaten the ¥145 level. Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to be very noisy, but I think it still favors the upside. After all, the market is more likely than not going to continue to favor the US dollar as the interest rate situation continues to diverge dramatically. That being said, short-term pullbacks continue to be buying opportunities, especially near the ¥142.50 level.
The ¥140 level is an area that’s worth paying attention to as well, as the 50-Day EMA comes into the picture. Ultimately, this is a situation where you continue to see a lot of volatility, but I think that the ¥140 level should be a bit of a “floor in the market” as there is a lot of confluence. In this scenario, I anticipate that we will see a lot of interest. Ultimately, we are very much in an uptrend, and I just don’t see how that changes. This is a market that I think will continue to be noisy, but at the end of the day, the main deterrent at this point would be the fact that the Bank of Japan intervened about a week ago.
That being said, the Bank of Japan is more worried about the rate of change than a specific number, as central bank interventions rarely work for the longer term and are or less just meant to calm marketplaces down a bit when they get far out of control. We had recently seen that, but as long as the Bank of Japan is willing to buy unlimited bonds, the trajectory is still going to be higher.
The British pound has rallied a bit during the session on Friday, but then gave back gains as the relief rally seems to be running out of momentum. That being said, the market will more likely than not continue to drop to the downside, perhaps try to get back down to the bottom. The market continues to see a lot of negative pressure, because quite frankly the United Kingdom is an absolute basket case from an economic standpoint right now. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, so that is something to pay attention to.
If we were to break above the top of the candlestick, then it’s possible that the market could go looking to the 1.15 level above, which I think is even more resistive. The 50-Day EMA sits just above there and is offering dynamic resistance as well. At this point, it looks like selling rallies continues to be a major tactic that traders will be using. After all, the US dollar has been very strong, but in all fairness, it had gotten a little overbought, so bounce makes a lot of sense, especially as the Bank of England finally did something about the bond market.
That being said, what they are doing should eventually weaken the currency, except they are still going to raise rates! That is a central bank that is flailing around wildly, and I suspect that bigger money players are going to sniff this out before it’s all said and done.
The Euro has gone back and forth during the Friday trading session as we continue to see a lot of volatility in the spare, but quite frankly the Euro had been a little oversold, or perhaps put a little more succinctly: the US dollar was a little overbought.
At this point in time, I think that the market is more likely than not going to continue to go down to the 0.95 level, maybe even lower but that does not necessarily mean we have to get there right away. The parity level looks as if it is going to be a significant resistance barrier, especially now that the 50-Day EMA has arrived. Furthermore, there was a lot of noise in that area, so I do think that the market is waiting to short the Euro in that general vicinity. All things being equal, this is a market that is likely to continue to see a lot of negative pressure, and at this point in time it’s only a matter of time before people start to look at any rally is offering cheap US dollars.
Over the longer term, this is a market that I think continues to be noisy, so you do need to be a bit cautious with your position sizing, but it’s also worth noting that the market has continued to see a lot of negative headlines coming out of the European Union, not the least of which is that the Russian gas lines have blown up. In other words, this is a market that I think still has to look at the situation as being dire for the Europeans.