S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Reach Towards Higher Levels

The S&P 500 has rallied significantly during the course of the week, as it looks like we are trying to reach towards the 4200 level. The 4200 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that will attract a certain amount of attention. With that being the case, I think that this is a market that will see a lot of noisy behavior, but I do think that given enough time we are probably trying to even break above the 4200 level.

S&P 500 Video 19.04.21

To the downside, it is obvious that the 4000 level is an area that a lot of people will pay attention to, as it is a market that pays close attention to these big figures and it is an area where we have broken out significantly. The 4000 level being broken as resistance should now be a support level. Underneath, the market should reach down to the 3800 as far as support is concerned. If we were to break down below the 3800 level, it is likely that I will be a buyer of puts, not necessarily shorting the market due to the fact that it is so heavily supported by the Federal Reserve and the liquidity measures that continue to be a major aspect.

You can see that the market has gotten a little bit overdone, but I think at this point any pullback will be thought of as a potential buying opportunity due to the fact that we are in such a huge uptrend. Pullbacks will be healthy, and therefore I think they should be encouraged as we have gotten a little overextended.

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Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – Natural Gas Continues Choppy Behavior

Natural gas markets have rallied significantly during the course of the week to reach towards the $2.68 level, which is an area where we have seen resistance previously. Nonetheless, this is a very bullish candlestick so we could see a little bit more of a rally in the short term, but I do think that given enough time we will see plenty of sellers jumping into this market so that we can push this market to the downside.

NATGAS Video 19.04.21

Keep in mind that there is a massive oversupply of natural gas in general, and that will continue to work against the value of crude oil but given enough time I think that the market will set up an opportunity to start shorting. At this point, the $2.00 level underneath would be a longer-term target, an area where we have seen a massive move to the upside. All things being equal, this is a market that is that you sell for several months, as the temperatures start to climb throughout the year. All things being equal, this is a market that continues to see massive volatility, because the market itself is relatively thin.

At this point in time, I have no interest in buying this market until we get past October, so it is simply a matter of trying to find an opportunity to start shorting. Quite frankly, the higher we go, the more interested I am in doing this. The last couple of weeks have been a little cooler than usual in the United States, but it is certainly the wrong time of year to expect a huge surge in demand to be anything more than temporary.

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S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Climb

The S&P 500 has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Friday, reaching towards the 4175 handle. It has been a very quiet session on Friday, but it should not be a huge surprise considering that the weekend was coming, and a lot of people would not be looking to get involved. Furthermore, we are a little bit stretched going forward, so we should take a look at the market has been overdone and therefore pullback should continue to be buying opportunities.

S&P 500 Video 19.04.21

Underneath, the 4000 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that people will be paying close attention to, and of course there is a little bit of a gap just above there. Ultimately, I think pullbacks to that area would be an excellent buying opportunity, especially as the 50 day EMA is racing towards that area. At this juncture, I think it is only a matter of buying on the dips so that we can go much higher. We are in an uptrend, and that is the most important thing to pay attention to as you cannot fight this type of liquidity measures that we have seen coming out of the Federal Reserve.

If we were to break down below the 3800 level, then I could start buying puts, but really at this point in time I do not see that happening anytime soon, so it is almost as if it is not even a thought. I look at pullbacks as buying opportunities, I have no interest in trying to fight what has been nothing but a tidal wave of bullish pressure.

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Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Rallies Into the Weekend

Natural gas markets have rallied a bit during the Friday session as colder than usual temperatures have been seen in the United States. This is a short-term phenomenon though, so I think it is only a matter of time before we can start selling again. We have not formed the correct exhaustive candlestick to get involved though, but we are also seeing the bottom of the uptrend line that previously had been so important, so there could be a little bit of selling pressure in this area.

NATGAS Video 19.04.21

If we break down below the 50 day EMA, it could send this market much lower, perhaps reaching towards the 200 day EMA, maybe even the $2.50 level after that. If we did break above the top of the $2.70 level, then it is likely that the market could go looking towards the $2.85 level. Regardless, if we see signs of exhaustion, I am more than willing to jump on it as the temperatures in America will of course rise quite significantly. All things been equal, as long as that is the case then eventually the demand will drop and of course price will fall off the cliff.

Nonetheless, keep in mind that natural gas markets are very volatile under the best conditions, so you should be cautious about your position size. Ultimately, the 200 week EMA would probably be a significant target, but I still think we probably even break down below there and go looking towards the $2.00 level, as it has been so important multiple times in the past. All things been equal, I have no interest in buying this market as it is still oversupplied.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver Markets Form Bullish Candle

Silver markets have initially pulled back a bit during the course of the week to test the $25 level only to turn around and show signs of strength yet again. With that being the case, if we can break above the highs of the weekly candlestick, it is very likely that silver will then go looking towards the $28 level. The $28 level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure but more importantly is an area where we have seen a lot of resistance in the past. Ultimately, if we can break above there, then it is likely that the market goes looking towards the $30 level which has been a bit of a “double top.”

SILVER Video 19.04.21

The hammer from a couple of weeks ago is of course a very bullish sign, so as long as we can stay above there it is likely that we will continue to see buyers jump in and try to push this market to the upside. If we were to break down below that level, then it is very likely that the market would go looking towards the $22 level. The $22 level breaking down would of course open up the possibility of a move down to the $20 level, and possibly even further to the downside. If we do break the $22 level, the bullish run in silver would be all but over. In the short term though, certainly looks as if we have more upward pressure than down and if we get the reopening trade, it is very likely that we would see silver demand pick up.

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Crude Oil Weekly Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Have Strong Week

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market rallied a bit during the course of the week to break above the recent resistance at the $62.50 level. This was in reaction to the International Energy Agency boosting its outlook for demand for the rest of the year, as OPEC did the same. Because of this, it looks like we are trying to reach towards the highs again, closer to the $67.50 level. That being said, it will probably be choppy as most of the “easy money” has already been made to the upside. Pullbacks at this point in time are probably going to be thought of as buying opportunities until we break down below the $57.50 level.

WTI Oil Video 19.04.21

Brent

Brent markets have also broken out to the upside due to the same reasons and look for ways to go looking towards the $70 level. With that being said, the market is likely to continue to see more upward pressure than down, and you will probably have an attempt to get to that big figure. If we can break above the $70 level, then the Brent market would probably go much higher. On the downside, if we were to break down below the $60 level, it is likely that we go looking towards the $54 level next.

I think one thing you can probably count on is a lot of choppy behavior but clearly the most pressure seems to be to the upside, so you should keep that in the back of your mind as you look at volatility on shorter-term charts. The upside is most certainly the favored side at the moment.

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Gold Weekly Price Forecast – Gold Markets Have Strong Week

Gold markets have had a very strong week during the last five sessions, as we have reached towards the 50 week EMA. If we can break above the $1800 level, then I believe gold markets will continue to go much higher, perhaps reaching towards the highs again. This would make sense, as we are starting to see people worry about inflation, which of eventually inflation could lift gold, depending on what bonds are doing.

Gold Price Predictions Video 19.04.21

Recently, we have seen bond yields stabilize a bit, so it is not offering a “real rate of return” like that was previously. If that is going to continue to be the case, then gold will get a boost. However, if the yields in the bond markets start to spike again, then we are very likely to see gold suffer as a result. That being said, my trigger price is going to be $1800, where I would be a buyer again. I do not necessarily think that we explode to the upside right away, but more of a grind than anything else. That grind would allow plenty of buying opportunities on dips. As things stand right now, it is not until we break down below the hammer from two weeks previous that I would be a longer-term seller of gold. At that point, I would anticipate a move down to the $1500 level eventually.

Keep in mind that the bond market is going to continue to cause major issues, in both directions so you need to see what is going on in those yields to get a good read on what happens in this market.

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Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Form Shooting Star

Silver markets continue to see a lot of resistance just above, and I think it will be very difficult to see this market go higher. If we break above the $26.50 level, then it allows the silver market to go looking towards the $28 level. However, if we break down below the 50 day EMA, it is likely that we will then drop down to the $25 level underneath. That of course would send this market even lower possibly, as the market is likely to see the market move rather quickly if that happens.

SILVER Video 19.04.21

Pay close attention to the US dollar and yields in America, because they tend to be intertwined, and that of course will be negatively correlated to this market. Silver does have a certain amount of industrial demand built into it, so that is something that needs to be paid close attention to. If we continue to see the “reopening trade” eventually silver should get a bit of a boost. Nonetheless, J.P. Morgan and a few other banks have been artificially suppressing the paper markets for years and have even been fined multiple times. Because of this, it does slow the assent of silver in general, but longer-term the fundamentals will eventually take over.

Underneath, if we were to break down below the $24 level, that could send this market down towards the $22 level after that, an area that should be significant support. That is the “floor the market” from what I can see, so if we were to break down below there it is likely that we will fall apart rather rapidly.

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Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Quiet on Friday

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Friday, as it looks like we are trying to pullback, to test that previous resistance barrier. At this point, it is very likely that crude oil will continue to find buyers on dips, mainly due to the recent OPEC and IEA projections that there will be more demand at the end of the year. All things been equal, the 50 day EMA is sitting just below the $60 level that is tilting higher, so I think that it is likely that we will find plenty of attention in this market when we see the occasional pullback.

Crude Oil Video 19.04.21

Brent

Brent markets have gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Friday, as we have recently broken out, and as a result it looks like we are trying to build up enough momentum to continue to go higher. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the candlesticks from the last couple of days, then I think it is likely that we will reach towards the $65 level. The 50 day EMA underneath is starting to tilt higher, so that is also a very bullish sign as well. If we break above the highs of the Friday session, then it is likely that the market could go looking towards the $70 level. At this point in time, crude oil is going to continue to be a market that is basing its movement on the latest “reopening trade” headlines crossing the wire. In general, this is a market that has been choppy but positive.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Continue to Reach Higher

Gold markets have rallied significantly during the trading session again on Friday, as we continue to see gold recover from extreme lows. That being said, I want to see how this market behaves on a pullback in order to tell whether or not there are buyers willing to get involved and support it. The US dollar of course will have its say as to where we go next, as a stronger dollar can work against the value of gold. However, most importantly we need to pay close attention to the yields in America, because quite frankly the yields in the treasury markets have been a major driver of where the greenback goes. As the greenback rises, it most certainly will put downward pressure on the gold market.

Gold Price Predictions Video 19.04.21

Gold is currently reaching towards the 200 day EMA, so if we were to break higher, I think that will be the next major resistance barrier, right along with the $1800 level. If we can break above the $1800 level, then it is likely that we go much higher, perhaps reaching towards the $1850 level. That being said, I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we at least attempt that move, but in the short term it appears that we have a lot of work to do.

If we were to turn around a break down below the $1725 level, that would be very negative, and almost certainly would have this market looking for the $1500 level, perhaps even down to the $1300 level given enough time. Obviously, that would come with massive US dollar strength so keep that in mind.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – US Dollar Pulls Back Toward Support

The US dollar has fallen during the course of the week, to break below the ¥109 level. That being said, the market certainly looks as if it is trying to find a bit of support in this area, and if you look at it on the daily timeframe, you can clearly see that there are a lot of buyers and noise in this general vicinity, so it will be interesting to see whether or not this market can keep itself supported in this area. If we get a daily close above the ¥109 level, then I would be a buyer to go looking at the ¥110 level as a potential target, perhaps even the ¥111 level.

USD/JPY Video 19.04.21

If we break down below the ¥108 level, then it is possible that we go much lower, perhaps reaching towards the ¥106 level. That being said, I think that would be an extreme move, and if we were to look at the pair falling like that, it would probably be a major “risk off” type of situation where the yen would not only pick up strength against the US dollar, but probably against most other currencies.

At this point, the market looks as if it is trying to form some type of either top or supportive move, so at this point it is going to be best to allow the market to make up its mind before you get involved. All things being equal, if we were to break above the recent highs, it is likely that we go looking towards the ¥112 level, maybe even the ¥115 level. This is a huge move that we have recently seen, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we get that pullback.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Pound Continues to Find Support

The British pound rallied a bit during the course of the week, breaking above the 1.3750 level. Ultimately, the 1.38 level would be an area that a lot of people should pay attention to as well, because if we can break above there then the market is likely to go looking towards the 1.40 level. The 1.40 level has been a massive resistance barrier that has pushed back against buyers multiple times, so if we were to break above there then it is likely that we could go looking towards the 1.42 handle.

GBP/USD Video 19.04.21

The 1.42 level is a significant resistance barrier, and of course is an area that if we can break above it would be a very bullish sign. Breaking above there could open up the possibility of a move to the 1.45 handle. That of course would be a very strong sign and we have been in an uptrend for a while, so it could make a certain amount of sense for that to happen. All things being equal, when you look at this chart, you can see clearly that there is a significant amount of support that extends down to the 1.35 handle. The 1.35 level being broken to the downside could see a lot of selling pressure, perhaps reaching down towards the 1.30 level.

One thing is for sure, it has been very noisy as of late, and I think that will continue to be a major issue. At this point in time, I think we would continue to see a lot of choppy sideways behavior, perhaps being better to trade a back-and-forth type of short-term market.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – British Pound Finds Support

The British pound has fallen a bit during the course of the week to break down below the ¥150 level, an area that of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. That is an area that will attract a lot of attention and has offered support for a couple of different attempts at breaking down. That being said, the market is still overextended so I do think that eventually we need to either pull back there or simply kill time in order to get rid of the excess froth in the market.

GBP/JPY Video 19.04.21

If we do break down below the last couple of candlesticks, then it is likely that the British pound drops to the ¥145 level, but at that point I would anticipate seeing a lot of support as well. We are obviously in an uptrend so I do think that it is only a matter of time before we try to go higher, assuming that we can continue a “risk on” attitude. Otherwise, if we see some type of market shock or “risk off” type of move, then it is markedly negative for this market and then I think that what we are looking at is a situation where this is simply going to go back and forth with the idea of how the market is “feeling.”

Ultimately, the ¥153.50 level above being broken could open up the possibility of a move towards the ¥155 level. That of course is the next large, round, psychologically significant figure, and it will almost certainly cause a bit of profit-taking. I think it is a tempting target for the buyers, so will have to wait and see whether or not they can make that happen.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – The Euro Continues to Reach Towards the 1.20 Handle

The Euro has had a strong week again, as we have crashed into the 1.20 handle. The 1.20 level is important on longer-term charts, and it makes interesting trading as we can continue to see a lot of noise in this general vicinity. If we were to break above the 1.20 handle, then I think the Euro goes looking towards the 1.22 level, possibly even the 1.23 level.

EUR/USD Video 19.04.21

All things been equal, this is a market that has been very noisy as of late and has been a difficult thing to hang onto at times. When you look at the last several months, we have simply chopped around and went nowhere. However, this is unfortunately the way this pair tends to move, so you need to be okay with the idea of being patient with your trade. Ultimately, the last couple of candlesticks have look very bullish, so it certainly looks as if the buyers are trying to take off, but it has a lot of work to get above the 1.20 handle.

If we were to turn around from here, the market is likely to go looking towards the 1.1830 level underneath where the 200 day EMA appears, and just below there we have the 50 week EMA. All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to give people headaches more than anything else. The yield differential between the two economies of course will come into play as well, which favors the US, and that is part of the problem here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Explodes for the Week

The Australian dollar has rallied significantly during the course of the week to go looking at the 0.7750 level, and glance at the 0.78 level. The 0.78 level is a massive resistance barrier just waiting to happen, mainly because it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we have seen a lot of selling. If we were to take that level out on a daily close, then I think we probably go looking towards the 0.80 level above.

AUD/USD Video 19.04.21

Speaking of the 0.80 level, it should be noted that it is a 100 point range of resistance that will almost certainly come into the picture. If that area gets broken above, then the Australian dollar goes much higher, perhaps taking off towards the 0.90 level. Ultimately, that would be a “buy-and-hold” type of scenario.

On the other hand, if we turn around a break down below the 0.76 level, then I think we probably make a bigger move to the downside, perhaps reaching down to the 0.73 level, maybe even as low as the 0.71 level. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to be very noisy and is moving based upon the idea of the reopening trade more than anything else. After all, the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to the idea of commodities, which of course have done quite well but at the same time we also have the idea of US yields rallying, and if they do in fact go higher it does make the dollar a bit more attractive. Because of this, you need to be cognizant of what is going on in the 10 year, as a spike in yields again could send this pair much lower.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Trying to Find Footing Against Yen

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Friday as we are looking for some type of support to finally break out to the upside again. The ¥109 level being broken on a daily close would be my signal to start going long, as we have had a nice pullback to a major support level in order to perhaps try to go to the upside again. We have been in a major uptrend, and therefore it makes a certain amount of sense that we would get this pullback as we had been a bit overdone.

USD/JPY Video 19.04.21

All things been equal, I would anticipate a lot of support between here and the ¥108 level, especially now that the 50 day EMA is sitting in that area. The market has continued to see a lot of bullish pressure over the longer term, but the last couple of weeks have been brutal. The last couple of weeks have been a nice pullback though, and now that we are sitting in the midst of what previously could have been thought of as a bullish flag or a pennant, then I think we probably have the ability to find some buying pressure in this area.

Breaking down below the 50 day EMA at the ¥108 level could lead to something rather significant though, and then at this point in time it is likely going to reach towards the 200 day EMA underneath. Ultimately, I do think that we go higher but we need a little bit of stability over the course of a couple of days to get long again.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Price Forecast – The British Pound Continues to Form Base

The British pound initially pulled back during the course of the trading session on Friday to reach down towards the 1.3725 handle, before turning around and bouncing. At this point, the market is sitting at the 1.38 level, trying to break out to the upside. After all, the market looks as if it is trying to reach much higher and form a base above a significant amount of support. The 1.3750 level has been important, and of course we have seen support all the way down to the 1.35 handle.

GBP/USD Video 19.04.21

If we were to break down below the 1.35 handle, then it is likely that the market would break apart and go quite a bit lower. That being said, the market is likely to find a lot of trouble between here in the 1.35 level in order to break down. If we were to break out to the upside, then I believe that we will look towards 1.40 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we have seen a lot of trouble in the past. If we were to break out above there, then it opens up the possibility of a move towards the 1.42 handle, which is a massive resistance barrier on the weekly chart. I do believe that getting above there could open up a huge move higher, but we have a ton of work to do between now and then so I would not necessarily count on that in the short term. All things being equal, I think we continue to see a lot of noise, but this is a market that will eventually find its footing.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Continues to Hang Around 150 Yen

The British pound has gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday, reaching down towards the 50 day EMA before bouncing again. By turning around to form a hammer, it shows signs that we are in fact still very bullish. If you look at the structure of the chart, it will make a certain amount of sense that we would see buyers in this region, not only due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it is also an area that looks structurally sound as well.

GBP/JPY Video 19.04.21

If we were to break above the ¥151 level, then the market is likely to go looking towards the ¥153.50 level. The market has been very choppy, and I would hesitate about jumping “all in” when it comes to this pair, because we have seen a lot of noise of the last couple of weeks. This is not to say that we cannot break out, just that we have a lot of “false starts” recently, so I would let the market prove itself before putting money to work.

On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 50 day EMA it could open up a move down to the ¥147.50 level, possibly even the ¥145 level after that. This is a market that is most certainly in an uptrend, but it had gotten far ahead of itself like several of the other markets that assumed the global economy was simply going to reopen and shoot straight up in the air. We have seen a lot of positivity but were a bit overdone.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Continues to Flirt With 1.20

The Euro has tried to reach towards the 1.20 level, reaching towards the massive resistance that we had seen previously. At this point time, the market is sitting above the 50 day EMA so that is in theory a bullish sign, but we need to get a daily close above the 1.20 level in order to finally move higher for a bigger move. Until then, I think it is only a matter of time before we get sellers yet again. However, if we were to turn around a break down below the 50 day EMA, then it is likely that this market breaks down significantly.

EUR/USD Video 19.04.21

On the other hand, if we break above the 1.20 handle, that would be a very bullish sign for the Euro, sending it much higher. At that point, I believe that the market is probably going to go looking towards the 1.22 handle, possibly even the 1.23 level. All things being equal, this is a market that would signal the fact that the US dollar is in serious trouble. I think at this point though, we are trying to determine whether or not that actually going to be the case. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is going to move based upon yields in America, and of course the risk on/risk off type of attitude of traders around the world.

The European Union of course is struggling with vaccinations and a slowing of the economy, and as a result I think that what we are looking at is a representation of that situation. The United States is most certainly leading the way, so it does make a certain amount of sense that the Euro struggles to go much higher.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Trying to Break Out

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Friday as we continue to stare down the idea of breaking above the 0.78 handle. If we can break above there, then it opens up the possibility of a move towards the 0.80 level, which is a very strong resistance barrier on the monthly charts. That being said, if we were to break above that region, which I believe extends to the 0.81 handle, it could open up the market to a much bigger move, perhaps as high as 0.90 above. With that being the case, I would become a “buy-and-hold” trader when it comes to the Aussie dollar.

AUD/USD Video 19.04.21

One thing that I cannot shake though is the fact that the Australian dollar has formed two shooting stars in a row on the monthly chart, and that typically means something. With that being the case, I am looking to sell this market if we get some type of momentum to the downside. Nonetheless, we are in an uptrend and it does make quite a bit of sense that we would see buyers underneath. Based upon the monthly structure, we could see a move down to the 0.71 handle, but really at that point in time I would anticipate that a lot of value hunters would get involved.

The Australian dollar will continue to find buyers based upon the reopening trade, and as long as everything looks good, it is likely that the Aussie will eventually pick up a bit. That being said, the market had gotten way ahead of itself, so it makes quite a bit of sense a pullback comes.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.