Silver markets initially pulled back during the week to show signs of weakness, but then rallied rather significantly to break above the $18 level on Friday. By doing so, this is a very bullish sign and it is likely that we will see a lot of resistance near the $19 level. In fact, we have seen the $19 level offer selling pressure than once, so to simply blow through there would be exceedingly difficult to happen. I believe that a pullback is a bit overdue, although one would have a hard time arguing with the bullishness of at least the precious metals part of silver.
SILVER Video 01.06.20
I do believe that the $17 level should be rather supportive, and most certainly the $16 level as well. The biggest problem with move as of late is that silver depends on a lot of industrial man, something that does not seem to be highly likely at this point. Ultimately, this is a market that I think we are going to see a lot of volatility in, and clearly buying all the way up here is a bit difficult to do as it is stretched. That being said, the market will be difficult to short, so I think more than anything else you probably have an opportunity to buy silver at cheaper levels, and that is something that longer-term investors will be looking at with great interest. Do not use a lot of leverage in this market, that would be a great way to lose money at this point.
The S&P 500 has rallied significantly during the week, breaking well above the 3000 level but you can see it did give back quite a bit of the gains as Thursday and Friday were a bit rough. At this point in time, it is likely that the market would continue to see a lot of noise so keep in mind that the market is likely to cause a lot of headaches more than anything else.
S&P 500 Video 01.06.20
I do think that the market is overvalued and quite frankly there is absolutely no reason for the stock market to be this high. However, most of what we are seeing is due to liquidity flows, meaning that the Federal Reserve pumping the markets full of cheap money is the most important thing to pay attention to. This has nothing to do with the economy, nor does it have anything to do with earnings.
Those things went by the wayside in 2008 as the Federal Reserve has continued to flood the markets with liquidity. That being said, there are a lot of concerns about the US/China trade war heating back up, so that might be the main problem with trying to short this market. That being said though, I think at the very least we need to pullback in order to build up the necessary momentum to continue going higher. Ultimately, we are at a major decision point so if we break above the top of the weekly candlestick, it is likely that we could go all the way back to the all-time highs.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has gone back and forth during the week, as we continue to see a lot of noise in general. That being said, the market is likely to continue seeing resistance just above as it is the beginning of the massive gap that continues to be one of the biggest technical areas on the chart. I think that we probably will eventually break out to the upside and then go looking towards the $41 level above which coincides with the 200 day EMA. I do not expect break above the $41 level.
WTI Oil Video 01.06.20
Brent markets of course went back and forth during the week, as we continue to see a lot of noise when it comes to the energy market. Quite frankly, this should not be a huge surprise considering that the market has to deal with when it comes to demand and of course questions as to whether or not some of the members of OPEC plus will continue to keep the production cuts and play. At this point, I think that we probably go looking towards the $40 level, and then possibly even break above there to go looking towards the $45 level.
All things being equal, we could pull back to the $30 initially, so with that it is possible that the buyers will come in based upon value at that point. If we did break down below the $30 level, then it means we get another leg lower. All things being equal, the market is likely to be positive though, it just simply because we need to fill that gap.
Natural gas markets initially tried to rally during the trading week but found the $2.00 level to be far too much in the way of resistance. That is an area that I think continues to be remarkably interesting to traders, but ultimately this is a market that looks as if it is trying to find some type of bottoming pattern. At this point, I think that we are likely to see a move down towards the $1.60 level before the buyers start to return.
It is difficult to deal with this type of action from a longer-term standpoint, simply because there is so much in the way of choppy behavior. Having said that, there is a lot of support underneath at the $1.50 level from a longer-term perspective as well, so I think we are in the process of at least trying to form some type of bottom, but the question is whether or not it can hold. I do not anticipate much in the way of momentum either way, so I would probably lead you towards the daily charts more than anything else.
If we break above the $2.13 level, which is the 50 week EMA, then obviously that would be a major shift in attitude as it is a large technical barrier. Breaking above there allows the market to go looking towards the $2.50 level. We need to see economies opening up a driving up demand in order to drive natural gas price higher. So far, it has been lackluster, but we should get plenty of bankruptcies to help as well.
Gold markets initially fell during the week but found enough support at the $1700 level to turn around and form a bit of a hammer. This has been an interesting couple of weeks for gold, as it simply consolidates in general. I think at this point it is likely that we will continue to see this market show a lot of noise, and therefore it is going to be difficult to simply jump in with a huge position. Having said that, you clearly cannot short gold at this point, there is a lot of the world out there looking to buy gold “on the cheap.”
Gold Price Predictions Video 01.06.20
At this point in time, the $1700 level looks to be crucial, just as the $1760 level is. If we can break above there, then it is likely would go looking towards the $1800 level. Breaking above there then opens up the possibility of a move to $2000, something that I do feel it is only a matter of time before we reach. After all, there is plenty of central bank printing, and it is likely that the gold markets respond due to the fact that fiat currencies are trying to be devalued. If that is going to be the case, then people will run towards precious metals.
Beyond all of that, there are a multitude of negative headlines out there that could cause issues, and that of course drive money into gold for safety. With this in mind, I fully anticipate that gold will continue to be one of the better performers for the rest of the year, therefore I like buying breakouts.
Silver markets have broken above the $18 level during early trading on Friday, which of course is a very bullish sign. At this point I think that the silver markets are going to go looking towards the $19 level beyond that, which is also a major resistance barrier. At this point, we are likely to continue seeing quite a bit of noise in this market, as silver is volatile under the best of circumstances. If we can break above the $19 level, then it opens up a move to the $20 level. The silver markets do tend to move in one dollar increments, so this makes perfect sense.
SILVER Video 01.06.20
At this point, the $18 level should step in and start to offer support on pullbacks, and most certainly the $17 level will. Keep in mind that silver is an industrial metal, so although it is bullish it also has that working against it. Gold is still the purest play when it comes to fear and is most certainly outperforming silver. Regardless, you cannot sell this market, and if you are looking at the industrial demand as something that will be picking up, then silver makes quite a bit of sense.
It is bullish regardless, and if we can break above the $19 level, we should see a significant surge higher. Obviously, the $20 level is extraordinarily important from a psychological standpoint, so that will probably come into play as well. With this, the market is likely to see a lot of volatility, but I look at pullbacks as an opportunity to pick up silver with value.
The S&P 500 has fallen a bit during the trading session on Friday, testing the 3000 level for support. Ultimately, this is a market that is overdone, so I think a little bit of a pullback would make quite a bit of sense. There is significant resistance between the 3000 level and the 3100 level, so to think that we will simply shoot through the top is probably asking quite a bit. Furthermore, we continue to get extremely poor economic figures so one would have to think sooner, or later Wall Street will realize that the customer does not have a job.
S&P 500 Video 01.06.20
In the meantime, it looks as if it is a “buy on the dips” type of situation, and therefore it is not until we break down below the 200 day EMA that you can change your overall attitude. If we do get that, then it is time to start reevaluating the entire situation. If we break above the top of the shooting star from the Thursday candlestick, then we could go looking towards the 3100 level but that is not going to be easy to do due to the fact that there is so much noise between here and there.
That being said, it is likely that we will pull back a bit in the meantime, thereby offering opportunities for both sides of the equation. Quite frankly, I would not risk too much in this market right now because it is doing a lot of “whistling past the graveyard.”
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially fell during the trading session on Friday but turned around to show signs of strength again. The gap is sitting just above here and therefore it is likely that technical traders will trying to find a reason to push into this area. Filling the gap is a common trade, and clearly the fact that we continue to find buyers on dips suggests that we are going to eventually find the momentum necessary. The top of the gap is near $41, and I think that is about as far as this market can go.
Crude Oil Video 01.06.20
Brent looks similar, but it has not reached the exact bottom of the gap, so it may have a little bit more of a fight ahead of it. Ultimately though, I do think that the market will make a decision and try to take off to the upside. I like buying dips, lease for the short term and until we get some type of major change in attitude what I consider shorting. Going into the weekend, it looks like we are still trying to find plenty of buyers to finally push higher, but ultimately this is a lot of back and forth, simply waiting for the next catalyst to get things going. I do believe that the 50 day EMA comes into play in both of these markets, at least for dynamic support. Expect volatility, so keep your position size relatively small until we get some type of clarity in these markets.
Natural gas markets initially tried to rally during the day on Friday, but you can see that we have pulled back a bit, reaching below the $1.80 level. There is a significant amount of support to the downside extending all the way to the $1.60 level though, so it is likely that we will continue to see buyers given enough time. With that in mind, I like the idea of looking for some type of bounce that I can take advantage of, but right now I do not see it. That is okay, we are heading into the weekend so it is difficult to imagine a scenario where traders would be willing to get overly bullish anyway. Ultimately, given enough time I do expect that we will see buyers coming back in but that is probably a story for next week.
NATGAS Video 01.06.20
At this point in time, a little bit of patience is probably needed. Ultimately, I do think that we are trying to form some type of “rounded bottom”, which is always an exceptionally long term and messy affair. Because of this, I think that the market is still very noisy, so therefore small position sizing will be crucial, but I do think that we will have a little bit more clarity somewhere during the week next week. In the short term, simply waiting for the setup is probably the best way going forward. Ultimately, there is not much to do rather than wait.
Gold markets have rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday as we continue to see a lot of concerns around the world. Furthermore, central banks continue to have the printing presses running at full tilt. Ultimately, this suggests that we should continue to see fiat currencies get devalued. The gold market as the natural place to go looking to protect yourself from falling value of currency, so I think we continue to see that factor into the buying to say the least. Furthermore, you have the concerns about the multitude of potential global headlines that could cause issues, and therefore it makes sense that people are using this as a way to protect themselves.
Gold Price Predictions Video 01.06.20
Looking at the chart, I do see a lot of resistance between the $1750 level and the $1760 level. If you can break above there, then the market is likely to go looking towards the $1800 level. Ultimately, the $1800 level is significant resistance, so if we do break above there then the market is free to go much higher over the longer term. That being said, it looks like we are still in the midst of trying to form some type of ascending triangle, and at this point even if we were to pull back from here, it is only going to end up being a buying opportunity. With all of the various concerns around the world when it comes to global trade and of course the pandemic, it is hard to imagine a scenario where gold does not rise over the longer term. The 50 day EMA underneath continues offer plenty of support as we have seen over the last couple of months.
The US dollar went back and forth during the course of the week, hanging around the ¥107 level yet again. This seems to be a bit of a magnet for price, as it is in the middle of the larger consolidation area between the ¥105 level on the bottom and the ¥109 level on the top. At this point, it looks as if the market is trying to pick the next direction, so you are better off simply waiting on some type of impulsive candlestick to get involved. Ultimately, I think that longer-term traders will probably continue to avoid this market, and quite frankly I think they probably should.
USD/JPY Video 01.06.20
When we do make that impulsive candlestick, then you can follow the market for a couple of hundred tics. Ultimately though, the market looks highly likely to see some type of decision eventually. At this point, this is a market that is probably easier to trade on short-term charts, as an investment would be a bit difficult.
Ultimately though, I do think that we will get that signal as to where we are going for the next 500 points, but right now we are not anywhere near making that decision so I would be cautious about putting too much money into this market in the meantime. If you are patient enough, you should get some type of trend to follow, but right now we clearly do not have land when it comes to these two currencies, which both are thought of as “safety currencies”, so it should not be a huge surprise.
The British pound has rallied significantly during the week, reaching towards the 1.2350 level. This is an area that shows up a lot on shorter-term charts, as both support and resistance. If we can continue to grind higher from here, and we very well could, then the 1.25 level becomes in focus. That area I think would continue to cause significant resistance, so pay attention to that level if we get there, as it will certainly be a major fight.
GBP/USD Video 01.06.20
If we were to break above the 50 week EMA, which is just above there, then the British pound could very well go to the 1.30 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think has to deal with the Brexit headlines next week, as negotiations start back up. It already has been a lot of chirping between London and the continent, as the chief UK negotiator recently stated that the “European Union needs to come a long way to have an acceptable agreement.” If that is going to be the case, I cannot imagine that good comes out of this.
Were in a downtrend anyways, so that should only help the downward momentum. However, it looks to me like the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noise, so be cautious about your position size, and be patient. You need to see some type of exhaustive candle to start shorting. If we break above and close above the 50 week EMA on the daily chart, then it is time to start buying. I think it is that simple.
The British pound rallied during the week, breaking above the ¥132 level in a sign of strength. However, there is a lot of noise between here and the ¥135 level, so I think it is only a matter of time before we see some type of pushback. Keep in mind that the market has faced a lot of support underneath in order to bounce yet again. However, the most recent bounce before the one we are in now is lower, so that does suggest that perhaps there is still a lot of shorting going on out there.
GBP/JPY Video 01.06.20
The market has been rather tight as of late, so at this point I think we are waiting for a large impulsive candlestick in order to take some type of trade on. At this point, I believe that simply waiting to see where the risk in the world is will tell you what this pair should do. Quite frankly, I believe that the Japanese yen is considered to be “safer” than the British pound because not only do we have global issues, but we also have to worry about the Brexit which is not going anywhere, and we do in fact have to get through a slew of headlines that could cause major issues in that scenario.
With that in mind, I think it is more than likely going to be a scenario where we get a lot of choppy volatility, but I think the road higher is going to be difficult to achieve. A break above the ¥135 level could get this market moving to the upside quite quickly though.
The Euro market rallied against the US dollar on the majority of the week, reaching towards the 1.1150 level before pulling back a bit early on Friday. Quite frankly, we are facing a significant amount of resistance just above and this is a completely messy chart at the moment. Yes, it is an extraordinarily strong and bullish candlestick that we have seen this recently, where the Euro exploded straight up in the air and then got slammed right back down.
EUR/USD Video 01.06.20
A lot of what we are seeing is a reaction “unified bonds” that the European Union is selling. In other words, Germany is backstopping Greece. With that, it should lead to a stronger currency, but at the end of the day the economic figures do not pan out for a stronger Euro. It is because of this that I think we will continue to see a lot of volatility, and therefore do not trust this rally quite yet. Beyond that, it is important to think of this as an indicator, showing you Euro strength or weakness in general.
I will use this chart tell me what to trade as far as direction is concerned in any EUR pair, but not necessarily this one. As I stated in my daily analysis, this sets up for a great indicator with the EUR/CAD pair, especially if crude oil continues to fall. However, I will keep you up-to-date as to what I see but right now I think we are to see a widening volatility regiment in this market, and that of course makes for nothing but headaches.
The Australian dollar has rallied significantly during the week, reaching towards the 50 week EMA which sits at the very top of the candlestick. If we pull back from here, it does make quite a bit of sense that the market could drift a few handles lower, because we are right where the massive break in support occurred. This is an area that at least from a technical analysis standpoint should be quite interesting for sellers, and therefore I think it will attract quite a bit of attention. Furthermore, with even more telling is that Donald Trump is coming with an announcement involving China heading into the weekend, and that more than likely will not do many favors for the Aussie dollar as well.
AUD/USD Video 01.06.20
That being said, if we were to break above the 0.67 level on a daily close, then I think we start to think about the market reaching towards the 0.70 level. Breaking above there would change the entire trend, something that I do not anticipate seeing. Yes, this has been an absolutely brutal bounce, but I think that in the end it is just that: a bounce. However, I am willing to follow the market and admit that I am wrong if we do break out to the upside.
Remember that the Australian dollar is overly sensitive to the Chinese situation, which of course could get overly complicated relatively soon. With that being the case, I think that the Australian dollar will probably take it on the chin. For what it is worth, the Aussie stock market looks absolutely horrible.
The US dollar has broken down significantly against the Japanese yen on Friday, dropping about 80 pips by the time New York started. While that is not a huge move, it is relatively big for the last couple of weeks. The market stopped just above the ¥107 level and hung about there, so I think at this point it is likely that the area could bring some buyers in this vicinity, but if we were to break down below the ¥107 level, it opens up the possibility of a move down to the ¥106 level where we had seen a bit of a bounce.
USD/JPY Video 01.06.20
To the upside, the 50 day EMA continues to hang above the ¥107.75. A break above there opens up the possibility of a move towards the 200 day EMA, which at this point I think that the sellers would be an influence as well. Ultimately, this is a pair that continues to chop around, and it should consider that both of these are considered to be “safety currencies.”
Ultimately, that causes a lot of noise here so looking at this chart it is obvious that the volatility is going to continue to be a major influence, so it is difficult to trade this market for a bigger move until we get some type of clarity. I do not have clarity at this point, so it is short-term back-and-forth, probably in increments of 20 or even 30 pips. I would not put huge positions on here either.
The Euro exploded to the upside it over the last 48 hours, as the market has reached towards the 1.1150 level. This is an area where we have seen selling previously, but a lot of this is due to the European Union offering bonds that are backed by the entirety of the EU instead of the single countries. This should be stronger, and therefore people like the idea of the future of the Euro much more than they did just a few weeks ago.
EUR/USD Video 01.06.20
It is a remarkable move, but when you look at the last couple of months, we have seen massive moves in one direction or another. In other words, even though it is obviously bullish over the last several days, it is still difficult to get long of the Euro at this point, because we have seen this movie before, and have seen it recently. With that in mind I am a bit skeptical, and quite frankly will trade the Euro against other currencies.
I will use this currency pair as a bit of an indicator as to what I am doing with the Euro gets other currency such as the Canadian dollar, the Japanese yen, British pound, and so on. Obviously, the Euro is very strong in the short term, so buying the Euro gets is other currencies makes quite a bit more sense due to the fact that there is a lot of concern about negative headlines, so with that in the back of her mind, it is a bit difficult to be short the US dollar when you can short other currency such as the Canadian dollar that would take more of a hit in those scenarios.
The British pound initially pulled back a bit during the trading session on Friday before turning around and smashing into the 50 day EMA. As we got there, the market did pull back a bit, and it should be noted that we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior overall. If that is going to continue to be the case, then I think it is only a matter of time before we see massive selling pressure. However, if we break above the 50 day EMA, then it is likely that we will then go looking towards the 1.25 level. At that point, I would anticipate seeing even more resistance.
GBP/USD Video 01.06.20
The market will continue to be very noisy, as we have a whole plethora of problems in the UK that will continue to weigh upon Sterling. The Brexit is still a major issue, and we have talks going on this coming week that will of course cause a bit of volatility as well. Ultimately, I do think that we pull back, and start going lower but it is probably going to take some type of headline to make that happen. The question is not so much in my mind whether or not we pullback, but if we do it here, or if we do it at the 1.25 level. With the leverage in Forex, timing is crucial, so if you do decide to short in this general vicinity I would do so with a small position. You can always add to a trade that is working out in your favor.
The Australian dollar has pulled back a bit to kick off the trading session on Friday, but then bounced as the 200 day EMA came into play. At this point, we are getting remarkably close to the 0.67 handle, an area that if we can break above, the market is likely to go much higher. At this point, it certainly looks as if the Aussie dollar is trying to take out the resistance and start a new trend higher, but one has to wonder what is going to happen between the United States and China? Clearly that is not going to be a good thing and with Donald Trump announcing a press conference late on Friday, we could see a sudden reversal. That being said, if the day closes above the 0.67 level, then it is likely that we continue to go much higher.
AUD/USD Video 01.06.20
This is a market that looks likely to have to make some type of significant decision, but at this juncture it is difficult to imagine that it is going to be easy. You need to be overly cautious when trading this pair, because once we make a move it is probably going to be rather drastic. Ultimately, I believe that the market will probably see some type of resolution, but clearly the market looks as if it is trying to break out to the upside. If this fails, it is right at where we had seen a major breakdown several months ago. In other words, it is decision time so therefore let the market decide and then simply follow.
The British pound has initially pulled back during the trading session on Friday but has seen buying come in and push the market towards the top of the short-term range again. At this point though, the market still sees a lot of noise in general, so I do think that we are likely to see choppy trading back and forth. The 50 day EMA is sitting just above, and therefore it should be paid attention to. If the market were to break above there, the likelihood of a move towards ¥135 increases drastically. On the other hand, if the market were to break down below the ¥132 level again, one would have to think that the overall trend would come back into play, suggesting that we are going to go lower.
GBP/JPY Video 01.06.20
Having said that, there seems to be a lot of hope out there that as economies around the world open up, there should be an opportunity to pick up profits in general and therefore it should be more “risk on” that it has been. Perhaps the idea is that we had oversold everything to do with risk appetite, and therefore it makes sense that this pair pops. Ultimately, the market is at a major decision area, and therefore we should see some type of bigger move coming, so next week will be crucial. The 50 day EMA of course is an area that should cause some kind of barrier, so breaking above there will attract a lot of momentum traders.