The S&P 500 initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Monday but then shot higher. We are above the 3300 level early in the session, and it does suggest that we are probably going to go looking towards the gap above, and then eventually the 3400 level. That is the all-time high, and I think it is only a matter of time before we get there due to the fact that the Federal Reserve continues to add liquidity to the markets, and therefore people are buying “things” to get away from the US dollar itself.
S&P 500 Video 04.08.20
Have been in an uptrend anyway, so regardless as to what we are doing in the short term, buying is the one thing that you should be looking at, as selling is very dangerous to do. I think there is significant support at the 3200 level which has been sustained, so that is something to keep in mind going forward. The 3400 level could be a bit difficult to get above, but once we do that should open up a move towards the 3500 level.
Even if we break down below the 3200 level the 50 day EMA is sitting at the 3130 level, and therefore I think it is only a matter of time before the buyers return on any pullback. Remember, stock markets have nothing to do with the economy, and everything to do with liquidity. As long as the Federal Reserve continues to throw money at the market, they will continue to buy things. This is a market that has been one way for a while and I just do not see it changing.
Silver markets have gotten a bit overextended during the trading session again on Monday, giving back some of the gains. Ultimately, this is a market that I think needs to find either some type of stability, or some type of value in order to continue the uptrend. I do believe that longer-term we are going higher but that huge candlestick from last week I think is defining the range right now. That means that $26 on the top will be the ceiling, while the basement is closer to the $22.55 level. All things being equal though, I do think that at the very least we need to cool off a bit and pull back in order to consolidate, or perhaps even break down a bit from here.
SILVER Video 04.08.20
Either way, I have no interest whatsoever in trying to short this market, as it is far too strong. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve continues to work against the value of the greenback and that of course works for the silver market itself. If that is going to be the case, then I believe that silver is going to go much higher over the longer term, but we may have simply just run out of momentum for the short term. That is okay, the market can go straight up in the air forever so it makes quite a bit of sense that we would have to give back some here. Being patient will be the best way to trade this market, as chasing the trade right now would be very dangerous.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has done very little during the trading session again on Monday as we continue to see the market chop back and forth. We are essentially stuck between the 50 day EMA on the bottom and the 200 day EMA on the top. If that is going to be the case, then it is likely that what we are going to see is a market that continues to look for some type of longer-term catalyst. Right now, we simply do not have one. We have a lot of things going on at the same time that they seem to be canceling each other out.
Crude Oil Video 04.08.20
Brent markets of course are doing the same thing, as we have no real drive to go in one direction or another. As long as the US dollar continues to struggle, it is likely that we will see a bit of upward pressure, but at the same time we have to worry about whether or not there is enough demand, and of course whether or not there is going to be compliance when it comes to OPEC countries. So far, the compliance has been relatively strong so that has been one of the boosts higher and of course with the US dollar certainly that helps to. However, and this is a huge thing, demand is most certainly down as the lack of air travel alone has taken a huge chunk out of it.
Natural gas markets have shot through the roof during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week, slicing through the 200 day EMA. That being said, we are dealing with the $2.00 level, an area that of course will cause a certain amount of psychological resistance. Over the last several months, we have been building on this range, and I think we are trying to put in some type of bottom for the market longer term, due to the fact that we are seen bankruptcies out there, and that should bring down supply in theory. Furthermore, there has been a pretty significant amount of heat in the United States driving up demand.
NATGAS Video 04.08.20
Add in a tropical storm in the fact that the US dollar is losing value, then you have an opportunity for natural gas to reclaim some real estate to the upside. I think we probably have a pullback ahead of us, but I would be willing to buy that dip, especially somewhere near the $1.80 level if we can get down there.
If you have the ability to trade in small increments, then we could be looking at a potential trend change, at least for the second half of the year, which could provide a nice little opportunity. I do not have any interest in shorting this market because we are so low from a historical standpoint. When you zoom out several years, you can see that clearly the $1.50 level was a major turning point more than once.
Gold markets have broken above the $2000 level initially during trading on Monday but have pulled back from that psychologically important level. Ultimately, I think we go well beyond $2000, but it may take some time to get used to the idea. Furthermore, the market has been overextended for a while, so I am more than comfortable sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the gold markets to come back. That being said, if we get a daily close above the $2000 level then it is probably a signal that we are ready to continue.
Gold Price Predictions Video 04.08.20
To the downside I like the $1900 level for support, but I can also say the same thing about $1950. After all, that is an area that I think will attract a certain amount of attention due to the fact that there was a little bit of a gap there. Ultimately, gold is something that I have no interest in shorting and therefore it is a matter of being patient enough to take advantage of the opportunities when it becomes just a bit “cheap.” With that being said, the $1900 level is massive support, but even below there I think the absolute “floor” in the market is closer to the $1700 level.
The 200 day EMA sits right there, and of course between here and there we also have the 50 day EMA which is trading at roughly $1800. All things being equal, there is absolutely nothing on this chart that remotely suggests that you have any business trying to short gold. At this point the question is not whether to be longer short, but rather to own it or wait for cheaper pricing?
The US dollar tried to break higher against the Japanese yen early on Monday, clearing the ¥106 level. However, we do have some issues above with resistance and it will be interesting to see whether or not we can continue going higher. The 50 day EMA sits at roughly ¥107, an area that is obviously psychologically important as well.
USD/JPY Video 04.08.20
Because of this, I am looking to fade this rally on signs of exhaustion I do not really believe that this is a market that is suddenly going to change its overall trend this quickly, and it should probably be noted that the Friday candlestick that was so impressive was also end of month trading, meaning that there may have been some profit-taking. Nonetheless, I still believe there is more than enough bearish pressure above to cause some issues, so at this point in time am simply looking to sell.
It is not until we clear the 200 day EMA, which is sitting at roughly ¥108, that I am comfortable buying. Furthermore, we have the jobs number coming out this Friday that will probably move the markets as well. At this point in time I think the market is simply going to run out of steam, and then it becomes a nice selling opportunity. Until then, I will probably check this chart every few hours on a smaller time frame to see when and if we get the exhaustion that I am looking for. I have no interest in buying anytime soon as rallies continue to get sold into.
The British pound fell a bit during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week, reaching down towards the 1.30 level where buyer step in and pick that up a bit. At this point, it is still an open-ended question as to whether or not we can hold the 1.30 level, but obviously we are still in an uptrend regardless of what happens next. With that in mind I like the idea of buying dips but lied, I wish this dip with a little bit deeper because it gives you more room to run.
GBP/USD Video 04.08.20
Nonetheless, the market is looking very likely to find buyers sooner rather than later, and if we can take out the shooting star from the Friday session that would be a very strong sign. I am not a seller, and if we break down below the 1.30 level then I will simply look to pick up the British pound closer to the 1.2650 level, perhaps even the 1.2750 level.
The British pound has been extraordinarily strong, and I think that will continue to be the case as the Federal Reserve continues to weaken the US dollar in general. With this, it is almost as if Brexit is never going to be an issue, but I digress. At this point it is obvious that the FX markets are not paying attention to Brexit, and solely paying attention to the Federal Reserve and its loose monetary policy going forward.
The British pound has shown itself to be a little overextended against the Japanese yen during early trading on Monday, as the ¥139 level offers resistance yet again. That being said, this is a market that I think will eventually go looking towards the ¥140 level, and if we can clear that level continue to go much higher. I like buying dips, and quite frankly I would like to see a little bit bigger of a pullback in order to get involved. Nonetheless, if we break the ¥140 level to the upside it is likely that we go much further.
GBP/JPY Video 04.08.20
The 200 day EMA underneath has been cleared quite handily over the last couple of days, so I think it is only a matter of time before that would offer a longer-term support level, just as the ¥135 level has been previously. In fact, the 50 day EMA is sitting there at the ¥135 level, so I think that also offers a bit of psychological support as well. Ultimately, this pair desperately needs to take a break, and that might be what we are seeing right now.
Ultimately, I think that you will see a lot of volatility but given enough time I expect this market to go much higher. After all, we have seen a lot of bullish pressure in the British pound in general, so it is hard to imagine why that would change suddenly. In the meantime, I am simply observing what is going on and I recognize that we are in a massive move just waiting to happen.
The Euro has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday but found the 1.18 level to be a bit too much, and then pulled back towards the 1.17 level. This is an area that will probably cause some support, but quite frankly it still a bit elevated. I think at this point we need to see the Euro consolidate a bit if nothing else.
EUR/USD Video 04.08.20
That being said, I do not like the idea of shorting this pair regardless. Even if we break down below the 1.17 level, it is very likely that we will find plenty of buyers underneath. In fact, I think there is a lot of support all the way down to the 1.15 level, so I am hoping to see a little bit more of a deeper correction and then take advantage of it.
To the upside I believe that we are going to go looking towards the 1.20 level eventually, but quite frankly I do not think that we get there overnight. This is a market that has been overbought for some time, so I think the healthiest thing we can do is either consolidate or pull back. After all, markets cannot go in one direction forever, despite the fact that they often tried to. I believe that the 1.15 level is now the “floor” in the market, and therefore I have no interest in shorting until we get well below that important figure.
The Australian dollar has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Monday, as we have breached the 0.71 level to the downside heading into the New York session. That being said, there is significant support just below and I think that will continue to be the case. With that in mind I am looking to take advantage of any type of supportive action here as we have decidedly changed the overall attitude of the Aussie dollar over the last several months.
AUD/USD Video 04.08.20
Keep in mind that there are a lot of concerns about the coronavirus out their still, but it seems like the FX markets are more or less worried about the Federal Reserve and its loose monetary policy above all else. That has benefited the Aussie dollar over the last couple of weeks, and should continue to do so, despite the fact that Melbourne Australia is currently under a bit of a lockdown due to the virus outbreak.
Federal Reserve liquidity is a main driver of markets around the world, and FX markets are not going to be any different. Quite frankly you need to buy other things to protect your wealth that based in US dollars, so the Australian dollar is probably as good as any other asset that you can think of. This could also be a bit of a play on the Chinese economy getting a bit better, but at this point I think that is just the sideshow and not the main attraction.
The S&P 500 has rallied a bit during the week but gave back some of the gains as we continue to see noise right around the 3280 level. That being said, we are in the midst of earnings season so it could be a major problem. Nonetheless, this major problem is probably short-term at best and I think that we will more than likely see plenty of buyers on any type of pullback. Earnings season causes a lot of noise, but at the end of the day the only thing that truly matters is that the Federal Reserve is still pumping the markets full of liquidity.
S&P 500 Video 03.08.20
The markets continue to see a lot of noise going forward, but I think given enough time it is likely that we will see buyers at lower levels, closer to the 3100 level. On the other hand, if we break above the 3300 level, it is likely that we will continue to go towards the gap above, perhaps even the 3400 level above which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. That was the all-time high, so if we blow through there then we will of course continue to go much higher but I think we may be taking a little bit of a breather as we listen to the earnings season reports, perhaps giving people a bit of a pause at this point as to putting more money to work. With this, I have no interest whatsoever in trying to short this market, regardless of what is going on in the “real world.”
The WTI Crude Oil market fell a bit during the course of the week, as we continue to see a lot of noise in general. The negative candle for the week does not suggest much though, because quite frankly it is still well within the range of the last several weeks, so I think we will simply grind sideways more than anything else. Having said that, if we were to break down below the 20 week EMA underneath, then we probably could drop down to $35, possibly even $30. On the other hand, we break above the 50 week EMA, then we are probably going to the $49 level. Short-term trading is preferred at the moment though.
WTI Oil Video 03.08.20
Brent markets went back and forth during the course of the week to form a bit of a bullish candlestick, counteracting the shooting star from the previous week. With that being the case, it is likely that we are going to be stuck in a range between $45 and the 20 week EMA underneath. Short-term trading back-and-forth continues to work, and it probably will be the case for some time. Ultimately, the volatility is going to pick up and is going to continue to be very noisy. That being the case, we do not quite have the argument for a longer-term trade yet, but if we break significantly above the $45 level then it is time to start buying. If we break down below the 20 week EMA, then it is time to start selling.
The S&P 500 has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Friday, reaching down towards the 3220 handle. However, there are buyers down there waiting to get involved and therefore think we continue to grind higher. 20 day EMA underneath is massive support, and at this point in time it is likely that the market will continue to find buyers in that general vicinity, perhaps even extended down to the 50 day EMA after that. That being said, the market is likely to continue finding value hunters coming into this market, so I think that eventually liquidity wins, and we go much higher.
S&P 500 Video 03.08.20
The 3300 level above is a target, and once we break above there is likely we will try to fill that small gap that is closer to the 3050 handle. Above there, then the market is likely to go looking towards the 3400 level which was the all-time high. I do think we eventually get there, and perhaps even further to the upside. Regardless, I have no interest in shorting this market as long as the Federal Reserve continues to be ultra-loose with its monetary policy and continue to flood the market with greenbacks. Because of this, the market is going to continue to offer opportunities every time we dip, so be cautious about trying to short this market, as it is in an obvious uptrend and there is no reason to try to fight overall.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen just a little bit during the trading session on Friday, as we are now just below the 20 day EMA. The 50 day EMA is sitting underneath though, so it should continue to cause support. I think there is a reasonable “zone of support” city between these moving averages, and as a result I do believe that buyers will come back sooner or later. The US dollar has strengthened a little bit so that has put downward pressure, but at the end of the day the US dollar is in the cyclical downtrend, so that continues to lift at the same time. Expect choppy trading in general but I think it is only a matter of time before we the previous levels.
Crude Oil Video 03.08.20
Brent markets also look a bit lackadaisical to say the least, as we are hovering right around the 20 day EMA. The 50 day EMA sits underneath, offering a “zone of support” as well, and therefore I think it is only a matter of time before the buyers get involved here as well. The $45 level is an obvious resistance barrier, not only because it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it is also the top of the gap that is so prevalent on this chart. Because of this, I think we continue to bounce around in this general vicinity and we will eventually have to make a bigger move. In the short term, simply trading back and forth seems to be the best way.
Silver markets have gone straight up in the air over the course of the week, showing signs of strength and breaking above the $26 level. By doing so, it was an extraordinarily bullish move but at the end of the day we see that the market has given back quite a bit. I think at this point it is likely that we will continue to see bullish pressure eventually, but some profit-taking is probably going to be what we see initially.
SILVER Video 03.08.20
While we have not formed a complete shooting star, the candlestick is close enough to that to suggest that we are going lower. The $20 level underneath should be the “floor” in the market, so I would be a bit surprised to see this market break through there. If it does, that would of course be a very negative sign, but if we get down there, I am more than willing to take the chance on that position. To be honest though, I do not think we get that low and I think $22 is probably a little bit more likely.
On the other hand, if we break above the top of the candlestick it is likely that we then continue to go higher but only for the short term as it would be a bit of a “blow off top.” Silver has been extraordinarily volatile and bullish as of late, but sooner or later gravity had to come back into play. I will not short this market, but I am more than willing to be patient enough to take advantage of value when it appears.
Gold markets have rallied significantly during the course of the week, touching the $2000 level. That level has caused a significant amount of resistance on short-term charts, as Friday started to see sellers get involved to take profits. I think at this point we are likely to see a pullback from here and eventually value hunting again. However, the market cannot go straight up in the air forever, so we need to be cautious, but I also recognize that looking for some type of pullback is the only way to trade this market. The Federal Reserve of course continues to show signs of flooding the market with greenbacks, and that could continue to push the gold market higher.
Gold Price Predictions Video 03.08.20
Longer-term, I think that gold goes much higher, perhaps as high as $3000 but obviously we need to take a bit of a break here in order to build up the necessary momentum. There will be a lot of “FOMO” out there as quite a few traders have missed this move. Regardless, only the foolhardy would jump in and start selling, because quite frankly this is a market that is extraordinarily bullish, and therefore a simple bit of patience could go long way in order to find value that will be extraordinarily profitable. I believe that volatility is coming, but that should offer plenty of opportunity if you can recognize it. You will probably need to look on the daily chart in order to take advantage of it though. Again, selling is not an option.
Natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the course of the week, showing signs of confusion as the market has been bouncing around in this range for some time. Ultimately, the natural gas market is testing a major support level underneath in the form of the $1.50 level, which is a major support level going back multiple years. At this point, I think we are getting closer to the turnaround that this market has needed for some time. If we can break above the $2.00 level, this market can go much higher.
NATGAS Video 03.08.20
While I know that the oversupply of natural gas continues to be a major problem, the reality is that the commodity has gotten so cheap that we are seeing in multiple companies go bankrupt. With that being the case, we should eventually see supply dwindle and that should drive this market higher. I would be a bit surprised if we break down below the $1.50 level, because sooner or later you have the problem of where natural gas simply is not worth enough to bother drilling for. However, that does not mean that we take off to the upside right away either. Ultimately, I think it is a scenario where we will see a lot of noisy trading, and then an eventual breakout, perhaps later this year as temperatures plunges in America. Right now, things remain very back, and forth so short-term traders probably are going to be much more interested than longer-term traders.
Silver markets are obviously very bullish, but at this point they might be a bit overbought. I think that it is only a matter of time before we find enough value on a pullback to get long again but we clearly have not had it yet. In the short term, it looks like we are going to go sideways in general, looking at the $24 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think has plenty of support underneath and I would like to see a certain amount of support underneath to take advantage of.
The $20 level underneath is the “floor” in the market, and I think that there will be plenty of buyers in that area if we were to somehow get down there. Ultimately, I like the idea of buying dips and will continue to take advantage of them as they occur. Longer-term, I believe that we are going to go much higher.
SILVER Video 03.08.20
The Federal Reserve continues to flood the market with greenbacks and therefore it is likely that the precious metals markets continue to see a lot of upward pressure. Quite frankly, I do not even have a scenario where I would be a seller, and therefore I think that the dips will continue to attract a lot of attention. To the upside, we could go as high as $30 over the next several weeks but clearly, we have gotten ahead of ourselves in the short term. At the very least we need to grind sideways in order to get comfortable if we for some reason cannot get that pullback.
Natural gas markets have initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday but gave back the gains in order to form a less than ideal candlestick. That being the case, the market looks as if it is struggling to bet and it is also likely that we may get a little bit of follow-through. Nonetheless, I am not a seller here because I see plenty of buying opportunities underneath and I think that we are starting to see a significant amount of support in general. The 20 day EMA has just crossed above the 50 day EMA, a bullish sign indeed. Regardless though, I am not looking for a bigger move, rather I am looking for a continuation of the overall range.
NATGAS Video 03.08.20
The range is between the $1.50 level, and the $2.00 level. As long as we do not break out of this range, I think a simple back-and-forth type of trading strategy might work, but I prefer buying the dips as we have seen so much in the way of resiliency. Furthermore, we have a lot of bankruptcies in this sector that will continue to drive down the overall supply, just as the extreme heat in the United States has increased the demand. Overall, I think this market continues to grind back and forth until we get colder temperatures, and then at that point we may finally see a bit of a breakout to the upside. The reason I say this is that the $1.50 level has been crucial for support going back years. A breakdown below that level would be an extraordinary sight to behold.
Gold markets have rallied significantly during the trading session on Friday, reaching towards the $2000 level before pulling back. I think this could be the beginning of a bit of profit-taking and it should not be surprising at all that the markets were pulling back due to the fact that we were heading into the weekend. After all, there have been good profits to be had in the gold markets, so there is no reason to simply let them disappear.
Gold Price Predictions Video 03.08.20
Nonetheless, I am looking for a buying opportunity underneath and will try to find some type of supportive candlestick that I can take advantage of. The uptrend line comes into play, just as the 20 day EMA will be. Ultimately, we could just bust above the top of the candlestick for the day, but I do not like that trade, because then gold becomes extraordinarily parabolic, something that I am not a big fan of dealing with.
Look for value, it is the best way to trade this market and quite frankly it is probably the best way to trade in the market. Simply trading with the trend is doing the same thing, because you are buying things when they are a bit “cheap” or selling things when they become a bit “expensive.” That is the big secret to trading: recognizing that it makes no sense to try to outsmart the market. Yes, there might be an opportunity for selling here to make a bit of money, but it is much less stressful simply go with where the market wants to go longer term. The Federal Reserve will ensure that we go higher.