AUD/USD fell on Friday after a weak US jobs number. The pair is a “risk on” trade typically, so this was no real surprise. However, the trend is certainly up, and we fell that the 1.05 area should hold as support in the interim. The pair could pullback from here, but as long as we are staying above the 1.05 level, we buy pullbacks as opportunities to own the Aussie on the cheap. We don’t sell until the pair reaches parity, and that is a long way below.
USD/CAD rose on Friday as the Non-Farm Payroll report disappointed. The Canadian economy depends on exports to the US, so a weak US means a weak Canada. However, we are below some very serious resistance areas in this pair, and cannot go long until we close above the parity level on the daily chart. In the mean time, we can only sell rallies as they come.
NZD/USD fell back through the 0.85 level as the Non-Farm Payroll numbers came out in the US, and showed that there were no jobs added in August. The 0.84 level held as support, and appears to have caused a minor bounce. We feel this level should continue to keep this pair aloft for a while, and we could see consolidation between the 0.84 and 0.86 levels for the foreseeable future in this pair. A break below 0.84 doesn’t get us selling – it only gets us anticipating the opportunity to buy the Kiwi dollar at the 0.8000 level below.
The EUR/USD pair fell hard during the week as traders continue to express concern over the European debt crisis. The pair looks like it is stuck in a range though, and the 1.40 area has held quite firmly over the last several months. The 1.45 has kept a cap on the price of this pair, and as such we fell this pair cannot be a long-term trade until we overtake one of these two levels. In the meantime, it will be the playground for day traders.
The USD/JPY pair continues to be “stuck” in the current area as traders don’t have the conviction to push it much lower, yet lack the bravery to try and buy this pair. The pair is a great place for scalping with these micro-movements, but for a long-term investor, this market is completely impossible to trade. Having said that, we are waiting for a large candle on the weekly chart to even suggest a trade in this pair.
The GBP/USD pair fell this last week, as traders sold the pair off again. The 1.65 area has been very resistive, and this past week proved to be more of the same. Because of this 500 pip range we find ourselves in, this pair isn’t much of a long-term trade at all. A weekly candle closing above 1.65 would be bullish in our eyes. A weekly candle closing below 1.60 would be very bearish in our eyes. Until we see something in the order of those two scenarios, we don’t see much in the way of a long-term trade in this pair.
The USD/CHF pair had a bearish week as the weekly downtrend line has held and pushed prices back down. However, the Friday action was a hammer, and this pair is looking like it is trying to find some kind of base in this area. The pair does have the Swiss National Bank fighting the fall of it, and as such will trade in a choppy manner for the short-term. The long-term is bearish, but with the recent action – we are content to avoid trading this pair.
EUR/CHF had a wild week, finishing toward the 1.12 handle, but not after first visiting the 1.20 area, and then the 1.10 area! The pair is in a massive downtrend, but the truth is a lot of trends end just the way this pair has been acting – very, very messy. Because of this, we are looking for a weekly close below 1.10 to sell, or above 1.20 to buy. Until then, this pair will more than likely be very choppy for the long-term investor.
The AUD/USD pair rose again on the week, but fell towards the end. The resulting candle is green, but looks a little like a shooting star. Because of this, we feel a pullback might be coming. The 1.05 area should be supportive, and we would be willing to buy the pair at this area on signs of support coming into the markets. The pair is more than likely set to consolidate between 1.05 and 1.10 over the next couple of months. We don’t sell this pair unless we close below parity.
The USD/CAD pair formed a hammer on the weekly chart, showing massive support in the sub-0.98 area. However, the massive shooting star leading to the parity level also bodes for confusing trading in the near term. The pair could see consolidation between the 0.98 and parity levels. The economies are intertwined so much that choppy and indecisive trading isn’t exactly out of the ordinary for this pair. We look for a close above parity on the weekly to go long for the longer-term, and a close below the 0.98 level in order to short this pair.
The NZD/USD pair rose during the previous week, but struggled to get above the 0.85 for any significant amount of time. The resulting weekly candle is a shooting star, and this pair looks like it is heading lower at the moment. The pair isn’t bearish however, but rather could be a sign that we are about to enter the consolidation area again that is bordered by the 0.85 and 0.80 areas. The pair is decidedly bullish, so instead of selling, we would prefer to see some kind of buy signal a little lower in order to go long of this pair.
The GBP/USD pair fell on Thursday, and even managed to break below the 1.62 mark as traders sold off many risk-related assets around the world. The Pound has been a favorite of sellers lately, but now is getting into more serious support. We did see a significant bounce at the end of the session, but the pair is decidedly weak. With the choppiness in this pair lately, with think that selling rallies is now the way to go in this pair.
The EUR/USD pair fell hard on Thursday, as traders are focusing on the various issues in the European debt markets. The Non-Farm Payroll report comes out at 8:30 a.m. New York time and this pair will certainly be effected by it. The two currencies are both reviled as both economies are weak at best. The pair is tough, and it is choppy to trade. Because of this, we think the pair will be almost impossible to trade on Friday. However, the close could give up much more information. In the mean time, we see much cleaner set ups in other pairs such as the AUD/USD and NZD/USD for today.
The USD/JPY pair rose quite a bit on Thursday, but only to fall again in later trading. The 77 level is now turning into significant resistance at this point, and should keep a bit of a cap on the market in the coming days. The bears are more in control, but the Bank of Japan is waiting to intervene in the market if prices get too low. Something has to give – but we haven’t seen it yet. Sitting on our hands is the way to go in this pair for the time being.
The USD/CHF pair fell again on Thursday as traders continue to buy the Swiss Franc against most other currencies. The pair tested a weekly trend line and failed to the upside a couple days ago, and as such – has confirmed the downward trend again. The area in the 0.79 – 0.80 levels is massive support, and if that gives way- we will go much lower. The 0.75 level is more than likely the next stop if this happens. If the area holds, we need to see 0.83 level broken to the upside in order to buy this pair.
The USD/CAD pair fell again on Thursday, although did not manage to break through the bottom of the hammer from Wednesday. This shows that there is still some support in the 0.97 area, and it will have to be overtaken in order to fall more. The trend is down, so we are more comfortable shorting this pair than buying it. The daily close below 0.97 is a great sell signal in our opinion. The pair cannot be bought until we close above parity.
The NZD/USD formed a hammer on Thursday, after forming a shooting star on Wednesday. The 0.85 level is shaping up to be a significant battle area, and could determine the short-term future for this pair. The breaking above the high on Wednesday could prove this pair to be strong enough to rise more. A breaking of the lows on Thursday would be very bearish. The Non-Farm Payroll report will more than likely throw this pair around in the New York morning, and as such – we think waiting until the closing of the daily candle might be the best way to find your signal in this pair.
The EUR/CHF pair fell on Thursday, and it looks as if the 1.13 level will have to be broken in order to continue the fall. The pair is decidedly bearish, and the 1.10 area looks like a target to the downside for this pair. If we cannot break 1.13, then we will bounce. The 1.2000 is the ultimate resistance in this pair, and we want to see it overtaken in order to go long. If we break through 1.13, we will get aggressively short of this pair.
The AUD/USD pair rose on Thursday, and continues to impress in its ability to rise in the face of a “risk-off” environment. The Aussie is now becoming a bit of a safe haven play, albeit moderately so, but the Aussie is being bought by traders looking for strong and vibrant economies around the world. The 1.08 level is now the area to break above if we want to see continued upward pressure. The Non-Farm Payroll report will cause fireworks, and this pair could move rapidly as a result. All trades should wait until after 9 a.m. New York time, as this pair will more than likely be moving quite a bit. If we can get above 1.08 – we should go higher.
EUR/USD fell again on Wednesday as fears over European debt issues reared their head again. The market is fragile at this point, but to be honest – the choppiness has taken a lot of the clear cut support and resistance areas out of the picture. The 1.4350 area just below the close is an area that we have seen a lot of back-and-forth lately. The pair is a matter of trading two ugly currencies, and as such – this pair will be very choppy for a while. Until we get above the 1.4550 area – going long is difficult, and selling is getting harder and harder as the lows are getting higher. Because of this – we fell that the Friday Non-Farm Payroll number is going to be vital in determining the future direction. In the mean time, we expect very little in the way of clarity.