The USD/JPY pair fell on Wednesday, yet managed a nice bounce in the latter hours of the session. The candle for the day printed as a hammer, and just above the 76 level. The market is supported by the Bank of Japan, so a fall from here would more than likely get the central bank involved. Because of that fact, we don’t sell this pair. We are looking for a reason to buy – but we need to see the 78 handle come into play in order to do that. In the mean time, this could be a good pair to scalp.
The GBP/USD pair fell hard on Wednesday as traders sold the Pound. The pair is approaching the 1.62 level, and will face support in this area. The market must close below the 1.62 level in order to push more selling into the market as it has been in consolidation for quite some time. The market looks weak, but until we get below that level – we are still just over support. The bullish case is hard to make in this pair as the highs are getting lower over time – a basic part of any down trend.
USD/CHF fell hard on Wednesday, after bumping up against a weekly trend line for a few days. The pair fell straight to 0.8000, and area that was once massive resistance. The bounce from there is good for about 60 pips at the time of writing, which is fairly strong for this typically slow-moving pair. The breaking of the trend line and the 0.83000 level is going to be vital for this pair to continue the bullish move in the future. In order to sell – we need to see 0.8000 broken through significantly.
The EUR/CHF pair fell hard on Wednesday as fears over Europe continue to plague the market. However, it should be noted that the 1.15 level held quite firmly against the bears. The breaking of this level is absolutely vital in this market if we are going to fall at all. The level holding up could foreshadow another move up – however, we feel that the 1.20 level is massive resistance, and that would be a real longer-term signal. We like shorting if we get below the 1.14 handle, and buying above the 1.20 mark. Until then – this pair will be consolidative.
The AUD/USD pair had a neutral day on Wednesday as traders fought back and forth on whether the pair should rise or fall. The pair looks like it is trying to decide if it can break into the 1.0700 area, which is the bottom of an area that should be somewhat resistive. The pair is certainly bullish, so if it falls we would be willing to buy on dips, at least until the pair breaks below the 1.05 area. A break of the highs on Wednesday would also have us buying. We don’t sell this pair at all until we close below parity.
The USD/CAD pair fell on Wednesday, but managed to bounce in the later hours. Because of this, we formed a hammer on the daily chart, just below the 0.9800 handle. The trend is down, and oil looks likely to break out, both of which are keenly pro-CAD, but this candle isn’t. With the shooting star-like candle from Tuesday, this shows a market that is confused at the moment. More than likely, we will be waiting for the Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday to make any real decision on the fate of this market. Until then, we expect this pair to be stuck in a tight range.
NZD/USD rose again on Wednesday, but formed a second shooting star-shaped candle. This shows that although we broke above the 0.8500 resistance area, the pair is struggling. Because of this, we fell a pullback could be coming in the Kiwi dollar, but are not willing to short it. In fact, we feel that the 0.84 area should be supportive under the supportive 0.8500 level, meaning that we shouldn’t fall too awfully far. Because of that, we are buying dips in this pair until we close below 0.8400 on a large red candle.
USD/JPY continued to trade in its tight range on Tuesday, and it seems like we are not going to see a move anytime soon. However, we know the levels that we are currently watching are obvious to all, and because of that we feel fairly confident that the rest of the market will act when they are broken. In order to go long, we need to see 78. If we are going short, we need to get into the 75 handle. However, shorting is going to perhaps be pushed back by the Bank of Japan, as they are currently trying to cap the gains of the Yen. In this scenario, the pair quickly becomes one of our least favorite pairs at the moment.
The USD/CHF pair continued the bullish run on Tuesday, but did react to the weekly trend line we had mentioned in yesterday’s video. Because of this, we feel that perhaps there may be a pullback soon and as such, are not willing to buy this pair. The 0.8000 level should act as support in the pair and keeps us from being too concerned about selling. If we get a break out above the 0.83000 level, we are buyers. If we get below 0.8000 on a daily close, then we will consider selling as it is with the overall trend. A bullish signal (Breaking 0.8300) would be a bit of a trend change in this pair it should be noted.
USD/CAD rose, and then fell on Tuesday to form a shooting star candle. Granted, it wasn’t at an extension of a bull run like you want to see in a shooting star, but it does mean something important: The bulls came into the market, and couldn’t get the pair to close above the 0.98 level. This means that the bearish pressure is on, and with the Light Sweet Crude market about to break out, this would drive up the value of the Canadian dollar as well. It should be noted that the Brent markets already broke out, and as such – the other forms of petroleum should soon as well. A break of the lows on Tuesday is a sell signal in this pair. Buying cannot be considered until we get above parity.
The NZD/USD pair broke the 0.85 resistance level on Tuesday, which if you have been watching, you know was our signal. On a daily close – we would go long. Because of this, we are buying this pair now, and with the expected new easing coming out of the Fed in September, (Or at least some form of it) it will make commodities very attractive. With this in mind, we have several reasons to own the Kiwi presently.
The GBP/USD pair fell hard on Tuesday, but the end of the day saw a slight bounce at the 1.6250 area, an area that looks to be minor support. Because of this, we are not ready to short this market yet, but know that if we see a break below the Tuesday lows, we could feel a bit more confident in a sell position. The recent high is lower than the one before it, and that signals that perhaps the sentiment is changing in this pair. With that in mind, we want to sell if we get that signal. Buying isn’t in our mindset at this point.
EUR/USD fell hard on Tuesday, but bounced a bit in the later hours of the session. The Americans sold the Dollar and bought the Euro once they took control of the Forex markets. The pair is still contending with massive pressure to the downside at the 1.45 mark, but it should be obvious by now that the lows are getting higher – a sign of building upside pressure on this pair. A daily close in the 1.46 handle gets us very, very long of this pair. Selling isn’t advised until we see the 1.42 level or so.
The EUR/CHF pair fell on Tuesday, but bounced to form a hammer-like candle. This shows that the pair has significant buying pressure underneath, (Something we already knew) and that it is likely to prevail in the end. The 1.2000 level above will be very significant resistance, but a daily close above that level sends this pair much, much higher in the end. Until we see this, or a massive failure at the 1.2000 level, we are sitting tight.
The AUD/USD had a very flat day on Tuesday, but not without volatility. The resulting candle is a doji, and it looks like that market is contemplating the next move. With this kind of candle, the signal is quite easy – the direction we break the range of – the direction we would trade. However, we are not keen to sell, so we are more than likely simply going to wait to see if we can break the highs of the Tuesday session in order to go long.
The EUR/USD burst through the 1.45 level on Monday, only to get repelled yet again. Because of this, we are more certain than ever that the 1.45 area is the biggest level in Forex markets right now, and should be watched intently. Until we get a nice strong finish above that level – this pair will continue to struggle. The pair is a fight between two of the weakest currencies at the moment, and this back-and-forth shows that. Until we get that solid green candle that closes well above the 1.45 mark, we are hesitant to buy at this point. Selling is tricky as well, since the lows keep getting higher.
USD/JPY continues to be stuck in a sort of “No Man’s Land” just under the 77 handle. The Bank of Japan desperately wants this pair to rise, but they are probably the only ones. Because of this, there has been a lot of verbal intervention in the press lately, with the BoJ saying it is “actively monitoring the markets against excessive speculation in the Yen.” This has kept the bears at bay in this area, but nobody wants to buy this pair either. Because of this – the USD/JPY is better left alone at this point.
The GBP/USD pair had a bullish day on Monday, as traders continue to sell the USD against many other currencies. As the stock markets rallied, the Pound got a bid – as it is considered a “risk-on” currency against the Greenback. The 1.65 area looms overhead, so any gains will more than likely be muted by this fact. We see the 1.64-1.65 area as one massive resistance zone, and as such don’t expect this pair to go too much higher than it is at the moment. We are decidedly flat and neutral about it at the moment, but would like to sell any signs of weakness on a daily close.
The USD/CHF formed a shooting star on Monday, and even did so right at a weekly downtrend line. Because of this, we feel this pair will more than likely fall from here, although we don’t expect a plunge. The pair looks like it has had a very strong run, and needs to pullback at this point. With the Swiss National Bank in the mix, the Franc is actively being sold off as they try to recover from the damage done to their export market in Switzerland. It should also be noted that the 0.8000 support level is just below as well, and this makes this sell signal a little less interesting at the moment. We don’t sell until we clear the 0.80 level. A break above 0.8300 has us actively buying this pair.
EUR/CHF has bounced all the way up to the upper 1.19 handle over the last few weeks, and as such – the trend has suddenly become much more difficult to ascertain as the Swiss National Bank continues to find new ways to punish traders for depositing their money into Swiss institutions. The technical end of the equation looks as if we are trying to test the 1.20 for resistance, and found it. However, it should be said that this move has been very impressive, and that one would have to think the bulls aren’t done quite yet. We feel that any fall from this level will see support at 1.15 and an ensuing battle at that point. If the 1.20 area gives – we are throwing in the towel on the downtrend, and buying at that point. We feel that this pair will make its new direction known over the course of the next few trading sessions.