Elliott Wave Pattern and Hawkish ECB Pointing Towards Higher EUR/GBP

Forex Fundamentals

Markets are slow, with USD trading in a tight range, while US stocks found some support after breaking to new lows yesterday. The reason for a slow down of trading activity can be due to important US CPI figures later today which can be the main driver for the direction going forward as data is important for FED’s policy decisions.

Early today we are hearing again hawkish ECB comments. ECB’s Villeroy mentioned that they will start raising rates this summer which prevents traders from shorting the EURUSD pair today; it’s stuck in the range. Instead, some of them can be focused more on the EURGBP upside as BOE turned out to be more dovish recently.

Elliot Wave Analysis for EUR/GBP

From an Elliott wave perspective, we see EURGBP changing the direction after five waves down to 0.8200 from where market rallied out of a downward channel so looks like bulls are here, possibly for 0.8660 targets in the near term.

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Trade well,

Gregor

Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: NZD/JPY Confirms Bears

NZD/JPY Technical Analysis

NZDJPY turned sharply and impulsively down from the highs and we are tracking an Elliott wave minimum three-wave A/1-B/2-C/3 decline, where higher degree wave C/3 could be already in play after a completed Elliott wave three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) corrective setback in wave B/2.

Trading Strategy

Waves C and 3 are impulsive waves which should be completed by a five-wave cycle of the lower degree. We can actually clearly see an Elliott wave intraday bearish setup formation with five waves of decline away from 85.40 level that can easily send the price even lower, just be aware of short-term Elliott wave intraday corrective pullbacks.

Check similar Elliott Wave analysis idea for AUDJPY pair: CLICK HERE

Trade well!

Bitcoin and Ethereum Elliott Wave Analysis: Room For More Upside

We are still tracking a five-wave cycle within this rise, where current slow down could be just a pullback before we will see more gains.

Bitcoin Elliott Wave Analysis

BTCUSD is making bigger recovery in the 4-hour chart, but notice that a rise is coming out of a triangle pattern, which suggests a corrective movement. So, according to two different daily interpretations, we are tracking an (A)-(B)-(C) corrective rally, where wave (C) can be now in progress and there can be room even up to 50k-54k resistance area before we will see another slow down.

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Ethereum Elliott Wave Analysis

ETHUSD is in bigger recovery mode in the 4-hour chart, but the wave structure still looks corrective for now. We are tracking (A)-(B)-(C) correction and the main reason is a break out of wave (B) triangle, which indicates for wave (C). However, there can be still room up to 3600-3900 area within that (C) before we will see another drop based on two different daily counts.

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Dogecoin and Shiba Inu Eye Down: Elliott Wave Analysis

Dogecoin Elliott Wave Analysis

DOGEUSD can be still pointing to projected 0.10 – 0.05 support zone, ideally within an ending diagonal pattern for wave »c«, where final subwave (v) can be still missing. So, after current intraday corrective rally in wave (iv), watch out for another sell-off, maybe even a spike down before a bullish reversal.

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Shiba Inu. Elliott Wave Analysis

The book says: Every mania is followed by a decline that ends at the starting point of the advance. As you can see, after a mania cycle, SHIBUSD can be still looking for wave (C) sell-off that can send the price back down to 0.000010 – 0.000005 support zone and beginning of mania cycle, ideally once current sideways running triangle pattern in (B) fully unfolds.

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GOLD and OIL Elliott Wave Analysis: Look For Correction

GOLD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

Higher inflation is also one of the reasons for higher metals. We have seen gold coming above 1916 on a daily chart, so this can be a break towards a new ATH. However, after recent sharp decline in the 4-hour chart, we should be aware of a deeper (A)-(B)-(C) pullback based on two different daily interpretations as we see the price coming down from the highs into first leg (A). So, after a corrective rally in wave (B), be aware of another drop for wave (C) before a bullish continuation.

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Crude OIL 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

Crude oil is turning sharply down from the highs on a daily chart, which smells like a top formation, but as long as the price is above 85 it could be still considered as a subwave 4 correction of extended wave 5). Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can still see a three-wave a-b-c corrective decline from the highs, however, notice that this could be also easily a five-wave drop, which can later send the price into a deeper correction.

Currently we can see it recovering in an impulsive fashion and we can clearly see a five-wave rally from the lows, so we will most likely see at least one more leg up after a three-wave setback.

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For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GOLD and Crude OIL Look For A Recovery: Elliott Wave Analysis

So this is something that will be back in focus as the dust settled around higher US interest rates.

Crude OIL Elliott Wave Analysis

Crude oil is turning sharply down from the highs, which smells like a top formation, but as long as the price is above 85 it could be still considered as a subwave 4 correction of extended wave 5).

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can still see a three-wave a-b-c corrective decline from the highs, however, notice that this could be also easily a five-wave drop, which can later send the price into a deeper correction. So, we will patiently waiting for an upcoming recovery; if slow in three waves, then we can expect lower levels, but if strong and impulsive, then be aware of a retest of the highs especially if the price makes five waves back above 113.84.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Analysis

Gold is seen in a corrective recovery after price turned up out of a downward channel following FOMC rates decision. So it was “buy the rumor sell the news impact”, which has been expected as speculators took advantage of the hike already before the event. Corrections are made by three waves so be aware of more upside as bounce from 1895 still shows only wave a, now b, so ideally wave c sill took price back to 1970-2k area.

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For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/CHF and USD/JPY Look For Pullback Before Turning Higher: Elliott Wave Analysis

We see USD index turning down, so it might have been a buy the rumor sell the news impact about what we talked about in our past updates.

USDCHF Elliott Wave Analysis

USDCHF stabilized at the lower side of a big triangle range back in February and is currently turning higher, breaking resistance levels, so it appears that wave C of B) is still in play possibly to 0.950 area which can be seen after sub wave four pullback when looking at 4h chart. Support is at a former high, and at 38.2%, near 0.93-0.9340.

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USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis

USDJPY is coming higher as expected, now breaking out of a triangle, meaning that the pair can be in the final piece of a higher degree impulse from 2021 swing lows. We see this as a fifth wave meaning that upside can be limited in upcoming weeks, but based on Fib projections there is still room for 119.00/50 area after pullbacks. Ideally, next pullback will be wave 4) as we see wave 3) now as very strong and extended leg, so the market may slow down a bit in the near term.

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For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Metals GOLD and Silver Have Room For A Deeper Correction: Elliott Wave Analysis

Also, we still see strong resistance on US stocks based on the situation in Ukraine, so any upward levels may not be taken out so easily. In fact, we think that SP500 has room for 4k, so USD can see even more upside vs other currencies.

GOLD(XAUUSD) Elliott Wave Analysis

Gold came sharply to the upside as a “safe haven” asset based on the latest events in Ukraine. Higher inflation is also one of the reasons for higher metals, however the FED may try to limit the strength this week if the rate hike will be above expectations.

We have seen Gold coming above 1916, so this can be a break towards a new ATH. In the short term, however, we should be aware of an even deeper pullback as we see the price coming down from the highs with one leg. Currently, the broken trend line support from 1880 area can make a room for a retracement back to 1900-1880 area.

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Silver(XAGUSD) Elliott Wave Analysis

Silver is coming down in the 4-hour chart after we noticed five waves up, so with broken channel support line, seems like it’s slowing down now within a higher degree A)-B)-C) correction, where first support could be at the former wave 4) and 23.80 level. Any bigger decline back below 22 region would be a serious signal that bears are back in the game.

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For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY and USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis: More Upside Ahead

As such, it seems that final leg higher is now underway ideally into 100 zone.

USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis

USDJPY is coming higher as expected, now breaking out of a triangle meaning that pair can be in the final piece of a higher degree impulse from 2021 swing lows. We see this as a fifth wave meaning that upside can be limited in upcoming weeks, but based on Fib projections there is still room for 118.50/119.00 area after pullbacks. Ideally, next pullback will be wave 4) as we see wave 3) now as a very strong and extended leg, so the market may slow down a bit in the near term. Chart, line chart

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USDCHF 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

USDCHF once again stabilized at the lower side of a big triangle range and is currently turning higher, breaking resistance levels so it appears that wave C of B) is still in play possibly to 0.9400/50 area which can be seen after subwave four pullback when looking at 4h chart. Support is at 0.93-0.9340.

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For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P500 and DAX Approaching Support: Elliott Wave Analysis

DAX Elliott Wave Analysis

DAX is falling sharply and impulsively from the all-time highs, so seems like it’s trading now in a monthly higher degree A)-B)-C) corrective decline, where wave A) on a daily chart could be still in progress. Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see it now trading in wave 5 of an extended wave 5) or alternatively wave 3), so be aware of rebound and recovery at least in three waves back to 13k area soon.

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S&P500 Elliott Wave Analysis

US stocks are still falling following EU and China stock market sell-off, but US stocks are doing quite well and we still see SP500 in corrective movement from the highs, ideally within a complex (W)-(X)-(Y) pattern which can be nearing the end. We actually see SP500 trading in final stages of wave C of (Y), where ideal support would be around that Fibo. cluster target and 4000 – 3900 area.

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For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Major FX Pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD Approaching Support: Elliott Wave Analysis

EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

EURUSD is coming sharply down due to the situation in Ukraine, and it seems that the pair is in an impulsive sell-off with room for more weakness after rallies. We see pair in wave 3 now so an upcoming bounce into wave 4 can stop at the broken channel line that can turn into resistance near 1.10950-1.1.

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GBPUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

The cable is coming sharply down, clearly with an impulsive sell-off from 1.3642 highs so we should be aware of the potential limited weakness, even if just short-term. Keep in mind that every five waves need a minimum three-wave retracement which would not be a surprise after recent sharp and extended leg down, into oversold conditions. RSI divergence on 4h may also suggest a low down. However, any bullish price action may not show up until 1.3485 is broken, which is far away at this stage.

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For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY and GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis: Be Aware Of More Upside

With recent jump on stocks we are also see JPY crosses moving higher, in line with USDJPY. IN fact USDJPY has nice five waves up so looks like more upside can be coming as 10 year US yields finds support. Plenty of pairs trying to stabilize; with GBPJPY and EURJPY making a failure breakdown, while NZDJPY and AUDJPY trying to confirm a break higher.

USD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

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USDJPY is trading sideways for the last few weeks which now looks more and more like a bullish triangle, so we should be aware of more upside after recent pullback down into final wave E). A Break above 115.85 can lead to a breakout within a new five-wave cycle for the fifth wave, while the price is above recent wave 2) swing low.

GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

GBPJPY came nicely lower in the last few weeks, but it looks like a three-wave drop from around 158.00 that represents wave E, the final leg of a higher degree triangle. As such, be aware of more upside now, after a bounce away from 152.90 support. Intraday recovery looks impulsive so we will favor more upside after retracements.

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For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

US 10 Years Note and Bond Approaching Support: Elliott Wave Analysis

10Y BUND Elliott Wave Analysis

Bunds are coming down from a triangle, now breaking sharply into wave C as ECB turns slightly more hawkish. Ideally, market is now in a five-wave decline within wave C headed to 160/163 projected area.

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10Y NOTES Elliott Wave Analysis

10Y US Notes are still trading at the lows and it looks like it’s still unfolding five waves of decline from 2021 highs, now moving within an extended 5th wave with room down to 125 – 124 area. Keep in mind that a rise back towards above 130’00 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal turn.

We see strong resistance on US yields at 2%.

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USD/JPY and AUD/JPY Eye Higher: Elliot Wave Analysis

However, blocking Russia from SWIFT was already been in talks back in 2014 but SWIFT private company rejected the sanction. If would be the same this time, and if there are some positive news from Russia-Ukraine negotiators, then this may help markets to stabilize a bit. From an Elliott Wave perspective, we see strong resistance on gold and crude, which could be positive for stocks and possibly even USDJPY.

USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis

USDJPY is trading sideways for the last few weeks which now looks more and more like a bullish triangle, so we should be aware of more upside after final wave E). A Break above 115.85 can lead to a later breakout into the fifth wave, while the price is above 114.34 invalidation level.

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AUDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis

AUDJPY is still in sideways consolidation after we noticed final wave E of a bullish triangle pattern, but keep in mind that we can see another small triangle within that wave E so sooner or later we can expect a break out to the upside, we just need a bullish confirmation which is above 84.20 level.

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For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GOLD and Silver Elliott Wave Analysis: Be Aware Of More Upside After Pullback

GOLD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

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Gold is coming sharply to the upside as a “safe haven” asset based on the latest US-Russia tensions. Higher inflation is also one of the reasons for higher metals. Technically we see prices are coming up from 1780 in an impulsive fashion after 1854 that also lead now to 1916 breakout. It looks like a strong move that might suggest a completed triangle. As such, be aware of more upside after a pullback in the 4-hour which we expect it at least in three waves with first support around 1854 area.

Silver 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

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Silver is trying to wake up following gold recovery, but notice that correction somehow still looks unfinished, it’s just consolidating at the lows. However, we believe that later this year, silver will be much higher when looking at weekly chart, but calling a bottom can be tricky sometimes, especially when you don’t have five waves up like in our case.

At this stage it’s important to focus on 4h-chart, where we see sharp decline from the highs, so for now we are tracking a three-wave A-B-C pullback with ideal support around 23.05 level. Any bigger and deeper decline back below 21.96 region would be signal that bears are still in control.

Bitcoin and Ripple Eye Higher: Elliott Wave Analysis

If we get slow corrective rally with resistance around 1.75T and with 39k-40k GAP resistance on BTC CME chart, then we will consider wave 4 correction within uptrend. However, if we see bigger recovery above 1.82T and 41600 level on BTC CME, then we will have an overlap of wave A/1, which would mean that bulls could be still trying to kick in.

Bitcoin Elliott Wave Analysis

BTCUSD is showing first evidence for a potential bottom formation in the 4-hour chart, but because of three-wave rise from the lows only, we are observing a complex (W)-(X)-(Y) corrective rally that can send the price higher within wave (Y), especially if current decline is a corrective within wave (X).

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Ripple Elliott Wave Analysis

XRPUSD is down again in the 4-hour chart, but for now we are still observing a complex (W)-(X)-(Y) corrective rise. However, keep in mind that recent rally was in three legs only and that it hasn’t reached June 2021 lows yet, current rally could be still as part of a three-wave correction of a bigger ending diagonal, especially it the price drops back below 0.60 region.

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EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis: Approaching Low

EURGBP Daily Elliott Wave Analysis

EURGBP keeps moving lower on a daily chart, but we see it approaching important support zone. If we consider that that it’s running out of steam within an ending diagonal pattern for wave 5 of (C), then bullish reversal can be around the corner, we just need price confirmation.

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EURJPY 4hElliott Wave Analysis

EURJPY came higher, up to 133 as expected, but then it fell sharply, clearly in impulsive fashion back to 130.30 area, which suggests that impulse from 128.20 is completed. As such, we see room for more weakness in the short-term to complete an A-B-C drop that can be underway within a higher degree triangle.

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For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P500 and German DAX Look For A Recovery: Elliott Wave Analysis

13:30GMT CAD CPI and US Retail Sales, Crude Oil inventories at 15:30GMT and very important FOMC minutes at 19PM GMT.

German DAX Elliott Wave Analysis

Bearish move on stocks slowed down with European shares turning sharply higher as Russia-Ukraine conflict has calmed down a bit. Investors are more optimistic it seems if we respect what German DAX is doing; it’s making a nice and strong recovery that looks like an impulsive in progress.

On 4h chart, we see that German DAX index moving sideways, ideally within sub wave (C) of a wave D recovery that can see 15900-16k area.

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S&P500 Elliott Wave Analysis

SP500 is coming down after US CPI figures last week and also following the US announcement that Russia will invade Ukraine. These are strong words so investors are going out of stocks, and that’s why we are seeing SP500 coming down even more from 4595 resistance, but so far only with three waves so it can even be a wave X as part of wave B) rally. Nice resistance remains at 78.6% near 4700-4750. Sharp drop to around 4300 will suggest that wave C) down is already underway.

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Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ripple Eye Further High: Elliott Wave Analysis

So risk-off is having a bearish impact on cryptos as well but there’s still a chance for bounce and recovery.

Bitcoin Elliott Wave Analysis

Bitcoin the largest crypto currency is showing first evidence for a potential bottom formation in the 4-hour chart and seems like it’s unfolding a five-wave bullish cycle within higher degree wave (A). If that will be the case, then we can expect a bigger (A)-(B)-(C) recovery in upcoming weeks, we just have to be aware of a pullback in wave (B) before we will see more upside within wave (C).

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Ripple Elliott Wave Analysis

Ripple XRPUSD the sixth largest crypto currency, is showing strong reversal up and seems like it’s unfolding five waves up that suggest a bullish reversal, especially if recovers back to 1.0 area.

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S&P500 and German DAX Elliott Wave Analysis: More Upside Can Be Seen

Probably it was due to higher 10 year US yields. Stocks also came down for correction after which, we can week at least one leg up.

S&P500 Elliott Wave Analysis

S&P500 is coming down after US CPI figures, away from 4595 resistance, but so far only with three waves so it can even be a wave X as part of wave B) rally. Nice resistance remains at 78.6% near 4700-4750. Sharp drop to around 4300 will suggest that wave C) down is already underway.

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German DAX Elliott Wave Analysis

We see German DAX in a big fourth wave on a daily chart, meaning more upside can be seen in upcoming months, possibly after a completed triangle which can be in the final stages or still in progress. On 4h chart, we see that index is still in a sideways consolidation, but still within uptrend as a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) rally for wave D that can send the price into 15900-16k area.

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