Cardano Price Prediction: ADA Bulls Take Positive View on US Economy, Eye Further Upside

Key Points

  • Cardano is consolidating just under $0.52, having rallied from closer to $0.50 on Friday.
  • ADA’s rise comes despite strong US jobs data boosting Fed tightening bets.
  • Bulls continue to eye a retest of recent highs in the $0.55 area.

Cardano Rises Despite Hot US Jobs Data

ADA, the native token that powers the Cardano blockchain was last changing hands just below the $0.52 level and appears to be in a consolidation mood amid thin weekend trading volumes and a lack of fresh relevant newsflow. Despite stronger than expected US jobs data for July that triggered a build-up of Fed tightening bets (normally crypto bearish), ADA posted a 3.5% rally on Friday, rising from near $0.50 per token.

Cryptocurrency traders appear to be taking the view that a stronger US economy that is was not in recession in July (as this week’s NFP and ISM Services PMI data have demonstrated) is a positive for crypto. Note that, aside from the hot jobs report, there were other indications this week of US inflation having peaked, namely the further sharp drop in US oil prices and the declines in the prices paid subindices of both the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI surveys.

That seems to have eased fears about the Fed getting super aggressive with rate hikes in 2023. Either way, ADA technical outlook remains positive, suggesting further near-term gains are likely. The cryptocurrency has been in an uptrend since mid-July and recently found good support at its 21-Day Moving Average. Bulls think a retest of the $0.55 resistance area is likely. A break above here could open the door to a swift run higher towards the late May/early June highs in the $0.67-69 area.

ADA/USD
ADA/USD still in an uptrend and eyeing a retest of recent highs in the $0.55 area.

ADA Sharks and Whales Buy the Dip

According to crypto analytics firm Santiment, Cardano shark and whale wallets accumulated a combined total of $138 million in ADA tokens in the last 8 days, adding a combined 0.46% of all existing ADA supply. “This is only a mild accumulation for now but could get interesting if this trend continues throughout August,” Santiment added.

Perhaps the successful implementation of the Cardano Vasil hard fork upgrade later this month, which Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson recently said he thinks is unlikely to be delayed again, could give the whales and sharks further reason to accelerate their accumulation.

Cardano Could Become “Bigger” than “Anything Seen in Crypto Before”

According to popular Cardano Twitter influencer @cardano_whale, Cardano has the potential to be “bigger” than “anything seen in crypto before” if decentralized governance under Voltaire works out well.

According to the Cardano project roadmap, the Voltaire “era” sets in motion the “final pieces required for the Cardano network to become a self-sustaining system”, including the introduction of a voting and treasury system that gives the network the “capacity to be maintained and improved over time in a decentralized way”.

5 Things to Know in Crypto Today: BTC Holds Above $23K After Strong US Jobs Data, Focus Turns to CPI

Key Points

  • Cryptocurrency markets saw an indecisive reaction to the latest much stronger than expected US jobs figures.
  • Bitcoin continues to hold above $23,000 as of Saturday, having briefly dipped to around $22,800 in wake of Friday’s data
  • Ethereum is higher versus its pre-NFP data levels and has broken above its 100DMA to recover back above $1,700.

Market Update

Cryptocurrency markets saw an indecisive reaction to the latest much stronger than expected US jobs figures, which simultaneously boost Fed tightening bets (crypto bearish) but also boosted optimism about the US economy not being in recession (crypto positive). Bitcoin continues to hold above $23,000 as of Saturday, having briefly dipped to around $22,800 in wake of Friday’s data. According to CoinMarketCap, the cryptocurrency is flat in the last 24 hours.

Ethereum is higher versus its pre-NFP data levels and has recovered back above $1,700, though remains below recent highs. However, it has managed to break above its 100-Day Moving Average, which had been acting as a significant level of resistance recently. According to CoinMarketCap, ETH is up 3.0% in the last 24 hours. Other major cryptocurrencies are mixed, with the likes of BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOT and DOGE all between -2.0% and +4.0% in the last 24 hours.

US Economy Strong in July, According to Jobs and ISM Services PMI Data This Week

The US economy added 528,000 jobs in July, far more than the 250,000 expected by economists, while June’s non-farm payroll gain was revised higher to 398,000 from 372,000. July’s gain saw the headline non-farm payroll employment finally recover back to its pre-Covid-19 pandemic level, 30 months on, and marked a 19th successive month of job gains. The unemployment rate also fell to 3.5% from 3.6%, a new post-pandemic low, though this was in part due to a drop in the participation rate.

The latest jobs data, as well as US ISM Services PMI data earlier this week that unexpectedly jumped in July, paints a picture of a US economy expanding at a healthy pace at the start of Q3 2022. Meanwhile, the pace of Average Hourly Earnings growth accelerated to 0.5% MoM and 5.2% YoY from 0.4% and 5.1% in June.

All said, analysts interpreted the data as strongly supportive of a continued fast pace of monetary tightening from the US Federal Reserve in the months ahead. Money markets quickly adjusting to imply a more than 70% chance of a 75 bps rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting in September, which mark a third consecutive move of this magnitude from around 34% a day earlier.

What to Watch Next Week

Inflation remains at the front of investor focus next week with the release of US Consumer Price Index data for July on Wednesday. Headline CPI is seen rising at a rate of 0.2% MoM and 8.7% YoY in July, down from 1.1% and 9.1% respectively in June. Meanwhile, Core CPI is seen rising 0.5% MoM and 6.1% YoY versus June’s 0.7% and 5.9% respective readings.

The drop in headline price pressures would be a welcome validation of peak inflation hopes and this has the potential to boost sentiment in cryptocurrency markets. Elsewhere, Ethereum developers are set to implement the “Merge” from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake on the Goerli testnet next Thursday.

This is the final of Ethereum’s major testnets to undertake the merge prior to the planned mainnet merge in September. Success could boost ETH sentiment. Elsewhere Monero is scheduled to update its network next Saturday.

Bankrupt Crypto Lender Voyager Digital to Reopen Cash Withdrawals Next Thursday

Cryptocurrency lending/brokerage platform Voyager Digital, which is currently going through bankruptcy proceedings, announced in a blog post on Friday that it plans to reopen cash withdrawals next Thursday (11 August), as part of plans to return $270 million in cash to customers.

Deposit return requests could take between 5-10 days to process, Voyager said. The platform first halted withdrawals in early July citing difficult market conditions.

Libdogecoin Updates That Enables Lightweight Dogecoin Integration Into Other Platforms Goes Live

According to a tweet from Dogecoin core developer Michi Lumin on Friday, the Dogecoin Foundation has released the libdogecoin update that enables “lightweight” integration of Dogecoin into various other platforms.

“Libdogecoin is one of the 8 core projects that’ll make doge the default money,” one Twitter user explained. “This (update) lets any dev build products securely on the blockchain, in their own language, and without first mastering blockchain specifics… (it) opens a world of potential use cases and markets,” they added.

What Next for Crypto After Friday’s Strong US NFP Data?

Key Points

  • Cryptocurrencies were choppy on Friday as traders digested stronger-than-expected US jobs data.
  • Crypto is holding up well despite the build-up of Fed tightening bets, perhaps an improved US economic outlook.
  • Focus now turns to US CPI data next week, which is expected to show a moderation in headline price pressures.

Strong US Jobs Data Boosts Optimism US Economy Not in Recession

Friday was a choppy day for cryptocurrency markets, with prices initially slipping in wake of a much stronger than expected US labor market report, though recovering most of their earlier lost ground by the end of the day. Bitcoin was last changing hands around $23,200, having earlier dipped to $22,800.

BTC/USD
BTC/USD was choppy after an initial negative reaction to the US NFP data. Source: FX Empire

The US economy added 528,000 jobs in July, far more than the 250,000 expected by economists, while June’s non-farm payroll gain was revised higher to 398,000 from 372,000. July’s gain saw the headline non-farm payroll employment finally recover back to its pre-Covid-19 pandemic level, 30 months on, and marked a 19th successive month of job gains. The unemployment rate also fell to 3.5% from 3.6%, a new post-pandemic low, though this was in part due to a drop in the participation rate.

The latest jobs data, as well as US ISM Services PMI data earlier this week that unexpectedly jumped in July, paints a picture of a US economy expanding at a healthy pace at the start of Q3 2022. So much for that recession, the US economy is allegedly in.

Markets Rebuild Fed Tightening Bets, But Sentiment Holds Up

Meanwhile, the pace of Average Hourly Earnings growth accelerated to 0.5% MoM and 5.2% YoY from 0.4% and 5.1% in June. This pick-up in wage growth was particularly concerning for those hoping to see a moderation in wage-price pressures, which could help to bring headline consumer price pressures back towards the Fed’s 2.0% goal.

All said, analysts interpreted the data as strongly supportive of a continued fast pace of monetary tightening from the US Federal Reserve in the months ahead. Money markets quickly adjusting to imply a more than 70% chance of a 75 bps rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting in September, which mark a third consecutive move of this magnitude from around 34% a day earlier.

This repricing of Fed tightening bets towards a more hawkish outlook was likely what initially weighed on crypto, as was also initially the case for stock prices. However, US equities had recovered the bulk of their earlier losses by the close of trade, helping lift crypto.

Why is Crypto Holding Up So Well?

The Fed’s hawkish shift from viewing inflation as transitory and not worthy of a monetary tightening response as recently as Q4 2021 to its current stance of wanting to tighten policy significantly is one of the key factors behind the ongoing crypto bear market that began last year. So why has the latest build-up in hawkish Fed bets in wake of the latest US jobs data not hurt crypto prices?

Well, it’s still early days and crypto investors may yet take a more cautious view on things over the weekend/next week, meaning a further pullback from recent highs is very possible, but the continued optimism is likely due to the fact that recent data has pointed to two recent positive developments in the US economy.

Firstly, as mentioned above, US economic data (jobs and ISM services PMI) this week has pointed to an economy that is by no means in recession. If anything, the US economy appears to be heating up. Of course, that could be a bad thing for crypto if it means higher inflation and a more hawkish Fed, which Friday’s jobs data did trigger some fears of.

But both of this week’s ISM reports (manufacturing and services) alluded to a substantial decline in price pressures faced by businesses, with both showing a large drop in the prices paid subindex. Recent price action in US energy markets, in particular with WTI falling to fresh lows since prior to Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine under $90 per barrel, will further boost optimism of lower inflation ahead.

In other words, the argument for US inflation having peaked in June looks pretty strong. And if it has peaked and falls a reasonable amount in the coming months, this will ease fears about the Fed taking interest rates to, say, beyond 4.0% in 2023. You only need to think back to around six weeks ago to a time when US inflation appeared to be accelerating whilst growth appeared to be slowing to see how the economic backdrop has improved, arguably warranted higher cryptocurrency valuations.

What Next for Crypto?

Inflation remains at the front of investor focus next week with the release of US Consumer Price Index data for July on Wednesday. Headline CPI is seen rising at a rate of 0.2% MoM and 8.7% YoY in July, down from 1.1% and 9.1% respectively in June. Meanwhile, Core CPI is seen rising 0.5% MoM and 6.1% YoY versus June’s 0.7% and 5.9% respective readings.

The drop in headline price pressures would be a welcome validation of peak inflation hopes and this has the potential to boost sentiment in cryptocurrency markets. Focus will then turn to the release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey for August next Friday, which contains a widely followed measure of one- and five-year consumer inflation expectations.

Any further moderation in these could further boost hopes about a more benign inflation outlook in the quarters ahead and reduce fears about the Fed needing to go super restrictive in 2023. Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum both look to still be in uptrends and the bulls will be hoping that a combination of positive technicals and an improving macro backdrop back further boost prices in the weeks ahead.

BTC/USD
BTC/USD looks to be in an uptrend still. Source: FX Empire
ETH/USD
ETH/USD is also in an uptrend. Source: FX Empire

WTI Fails Attempted Rebound Above $90; Gold Drops 0.85% on Strong US Jobs Data

Key Points

  • WTI failed an attempted rebound back above $90 on Friday, despite finding some intra-day support from strong US jobs data.
  • Traders refrained from chasing prices higher amid continued pessimism about demand outside the US and rising US inventories.
  • Gold fell back sharply from near $1,800 to the $1,775 region on the stronger US dollar and higher US yields.

WTI Fails Attempted Rebound Back Above $90

The price of the front-month futures contract for the US benchmark for sweet light crude oil, West Texas Intermediary or WTI, closed about $0.50 higher on Friday near $88.50, having failed an earlier attempt to push back above the $90 level. Much stronger than expected US jobs data for July, which follows much stronger than expected US ISM Services PMI data for July on Wednesday, boosted optimism that the US economy is not currently in, or nearing recession, suggesting there is grounds for optimism about the US oil demand outlook.

But WTI was unable to hold above the $90 mark, as traders remembered back to data earlier in the week which showed a surprise rise in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, something that analysts said is unusual during “peak” driving season and a bearish sign for US oil markets. Oil traders also refrained from chasing prices higher amid continued concerns about the demand outlook outside of the US.

Eurozone Retail Sales and PMI survey data out this week showed that, comparatively, the Eurozone economy is much weaker than the US. Meanwhile, on Thursday the BoE outlined in its new Monetary Policy Report that it expects a five-quarter long recession to begin from Q4 2022. WTI thus ended the week just shy of $10 (or 10%) lower, its worst weekly performance since late March. Technicians continue to expect WTI to test support in the $85 area in the near future.

Strong Buck Weighs on Commodities

A sharp strengthening of the US dollar as traders priced in a more hawkish Fed tightening outlook also weighed on oil prices on Friday. When the US dollar strengthens, it makes USD-denominated commodities more expensive for international buyers, thus potentially hurting demand.

This factor also weighed heavily on gold prices on Friday, which slipped from earlier session highs in the $1,790s to end the week around $1,775, a loss of 0.85% on the day. A sharp rise in US bond yields on the more optimistic US economic outlook/hawkish Fed policy outlook also weighed on gold, given higher yields represent a higher “opportunity cost” of holding the non-yielding precious metal.

Copper prices, meanwhile, were more focused on optimism about the US economy and gained 2.26% and came close to hitting fresh multi-week highs above $3.60. US natural gas prices, meanwhile, fell slightly but remained above $8.0.

Wall Street Mixed as Investors Digest Super Strong US Jobs Figures; Tesla Slides 6.6%

Key Points

  • Wall Street was mixed on Friday as investors digested the implications of the latest stronger-than-expected US jobs figures.
  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both fell while the Dow gained slightly.
  • A 6.6% drop in Tesla’s share price dragged the Consumer Discretionary sector lower.

Stocks Mixed as Investors Digest Strong US Jobs Numbers

Wall Street was mixed on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices both closing in the red while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed slightly in the green. All of the three major indices managed to post an impressive recovery from earlier intra-day lows, as investors digested the implications of the latest much stronger than expected US jobs figures.

The US economy added 528,000 jobs in July, far more than the 250,000 expected by economists, while the pace of Average Hourly Earnings growth accelerated to 0.5% MoM and 5.2% YoY from 0.4% and 5.1% in June. Analysts interpreted the data as strongly supporting the case for further aggressive rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve.

Money markets quickly adjusting to imply a more than 60% chance of a 75 bps rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting in September from around 40% prior to the data. This hawkish adjustment to Fed tightening expectations initially weighed on stock market sentiment.

But by the second half of the session, the mood had seemingly shifted towards a focus on the positive signals that this week’s data have sent about the US economy. Recall that ISM Services PMI data on Thursday pointed to a surprise surge in business activity in July. Data this week has dealt a significant blow to the idea that the US economy might be on the verge of/already in recession. The S&P 500 ended the week up 0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 up 2.0% and the Dow roughly flat.

Sharp Drop in TSLA Shares Weighs on Consumer Discretionary

In terms of the S&P 500 GICS sectors, the picture was mixed. Consumer Discretionary was the worst performer, dropping 1.7% amid a 6.6% decline in Tesla’s share price. Analysts said that Tesla investors were spooked by commentary from CEO Elon Musk during Thursday’s annual meeting. Musk said he wants Tesla to sell 20 million vehicles a year by 2030 and analysts said his ambitious growth plans highlighted the need for Tesla to raise more capital from investors, perhaps diluting the current stock pool.

The sharp rise in US bond yields on the strong jobs data helped Financials gain 0.8%, while Energy was the best performing sector with a 2.0% gain as oil prices enjoyed some much-needed stabilization after slumping to their lowest since prior to Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine under $90 per barrel on Thursday.

DXY Rallies on Hot US NFP Figures; USD/JPY Jumps 1.6% For Biggest Daily Gain Since June

Key Points

  • The US dollar surged across the board on Friday after much stronger-than-expected US jobs data.
  • USD/JPY jumped 1.6% on a surge in US bond yields across the curve, its biggest one-day gain since June.
  • EUR/USD and GBP/USD ended the week lower. Data this week boosted US economic optimism, while the European outlook remains downbeat.

Stronger-than-expected US Jobs Data Boosts Buck

The US dollar surged on Friday in wake of much stronger than anticipated US labor market data for July that eased concerns about the US economy being in recession whilst simultaneously exacerbating worries that inflation may persist at elevated levels. The DXY rose 0.8% on Friday to close out the week 0.7% higher ner 106.50. The US economy added 528,000 jobs in July, far more than the 250,000 expected by economists, while the pace of Average Hourly Earnings growth accelerated to 0.5% MoM and 5.2% YoY from 0.4% and 5.1% in June.

Analysts interpreted the data as strongly supporting the case for further aggressive rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve, with money markets quickly adjusting to imply a more than 60% chance of a 75 bps rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting in September from around 40% prior to the data. The data sent US bond yields lurching higher across the curve, supporting the buck via rate differentials, especially versus the yen.

USD/JPY rallied 1.6% on Friday, its best one-day gain since June, to end the week around 1.4% higher. The BoJ’s policy of keeping 10-year Japanese government bond yields locked close to zero means that the yen is sensitive to movements in bond yields abroad.

US Economy Looking Strong, Eurozone & UK Economies Not So Much

Friday’s jobs data, as well as this week’s US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI surveys, also highlighted the fact that while other major developed economies look to be on the verge of/already in recession, the US continues to grow. Eurozone Retail Sales and PMI survey data out this week showed that, comparatively, the Eurozone economy is much weaker than the US.

Meanwhile, on Thursday the BoE outlined in its new Monetary Policy Report that it expects a five-quarter long recession to begin from Q4 2022. By contrast, Fed policymakers this week were out in force talking about how 1) the inflation fight in the US is not yet won, so its too early to be talking about pausing/significantly slowing rate hikes and 2) that the US economy remains robust enough to handle tightening, and a soft landing (i.e. bringing inflation down whilst avoiding recession) remains possible.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD thus both look set to close out the week with losses of around 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, having both shed 0.6-0.7% on Friday. In terms of the other major G10 currencies, the loonie shed about 0.5% versus the buck on Friday after data showed its economy unexpectedly shed 30,600 jobs in July and a surprise drop in the participation rate, though its downside was shielded as oil prices stabilized. The Aussie and kiwi both fell 0.8-0.9% on the day versus the buck.

Top 3 Trending Coins: FLOW Continues Upside Momentum, NEAR Breaks Above $5.0 and THETA Above $1.50

Key Points

  • FLOW continued its rally in wake of the recent Meta Platforms integration news on Friday.
  • NEAR is the best-performing top 50 crypto and is eyeing a test of its 100DMA in the $5.30s.
  • THETA hit its highest since mid-May after surging above $1.50 per token, with bulls eyeing a rally to $2.30.

FLOW Surges as Meta Platforms Announces Flow Blockchain Integrations

FLOW, the native token that powers the Flow blockchain, has surged nearly 50% since Wednesday’s close. The cryptocurrency has received a boost on the news that Meta Platforms will utilize the Flow blockchain in order to expand its non-fungible token (NFT) offerings.

Meta this week announced an international expansion of its digital collectibles features that it successfully piloted on Instagram back in May. Meta will now support the Dapper wallet, whose creator Dapper Labs also created the Flow blockchain, as well as supporting the Coinbase wallet.

After nearly rallying as high as $3.0 on Friday, profit-taking has seen FLOW/USD fall back to trading just above the $2.70 mark. The $3.0 area seemed to be an area of resistance in the second half of May.

Further, profit-taking may yet see the cryptocurrency slip as low as its 100-Day Moving Average around $2.35, which comes in just ahead of support in the form of May lows in the $2.20-30 area and then late July highs in the $2.15 area.

 

FLOW/USD
FLOW/USD Chart.

If the cryptocurrency can regain some near-term bullish momentum and push above $3.0, the door would be open to a swift rally above $4.0 per token and towards support in the $4.30 area, which also coincides with the 200DMA at $4.27.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

NEAR, the native token that drives the NEAR Protocol’s blockchain, has been propelled higher on Friday by technical momentum following a bullish ascending triangle breakout. The cryptocurrency had been in an uptrend since mid-July but had been struggling to overcome resistance in the $4.70 area.

However, amid a more than 15% on the day jump this Friday, has now leaped above this resistance area and is trading in the $5.10s per token and eyeing a test of its 100DMA at $5.35. According to CoinMarketCap, NEAR is up 15% in the last 24 hours, making it the best performing cryptocurrency in the top 50 by market capitalization.

NEAR/USD
NEAR/USD Chart.

Back at the end of July, the NEAR Protocol opened the door for alternative wallet providers.

Theta Network (THETA)

THETA, the native token that powers Theta Network’s blockchain, broke out to its highest levels since mid-May on Friday after it charged above the $1.50 per token level. THETA/USD was last trading with gains of about 12% on the day just under $1.60, though has admittedly pulled back about 4.0% from earlier session highs in the $1.65 area.

THETA’s latest rally has seen it leave its 100DMA at $1.39 in the dust. With the cryptocurrency having now broken above its range that had been in play since mid-May, the door is potentially open to a run higher towards the next key area of resistance around $2.30, where the 200DMA also resides.

THETA/USD
THETA/USD Chart.

Cardano Price Prediction: ADA Holds Above $0.50 Despite Strong US Jobs Data Amid Technical Support

Key Points

  • Cardano is currently holding comfortably above $0.50, despite strong US jobs data that triggered downside in US stocks.
  • ADA is for now holding above an uptrend from the mid-July lows near $0.40.
  • A break below this uptrend could see Cardano slide quickly back to late-July lows in the $0.45 area.

Cardano Holds Above $0.50 Despite Strong US Jobs Data

Despite the latest stronger-than-expected US labor market figures for July that has triggered a sharp rally in the US dollar, US yields and downside in US equities, cryptocurrency markets have largely remained resilient. ADA, the native token that powers the Cardano blockchain, was last changing hands just below $0.51, where it trades higher on the day by about 1.5%, though has pulled back from earlier session highs near $0.52.

ADA continues to find solid support above its 21-Day Moving Average at $0.4980, and looks to still be in an uptrend from its mid-July lows just above $0.40, even though markets have moved to price in the likelihood of a third successive 75 bps rate hike from the US Federal Reserve in September in wake of the strong jobs figures.

Some analysts are warning that the rebuilding of hawkish Fed bets could yet weigh on cryptocurrency prices. If ADA does break below the uptrend from its mid-July lows, then this would open the door to a swift drop to late-July lows in the $0.45 area.

ADA/USD
If it breaks below support from mid-July, ADA/USD could quickly dip to $0.45. Source: FX Empire

But, for now, traders seem reluctant to place big new bearish crypto bets, perhaps amid hopes that next week’s US consumer inflation reading for July will show an easing of price pressures to reflect falling US energy costs. Further evidence to support the “peak inflation” narrative would relieve some pressure on the Fed to be quite so hawkish and could see crypto continue to edge higher.

Bulls will thus be eyeing a retest of recent highs in the $0.55 area. A break above here would open the door to a retest of resistance in the $0.67-69 area.

ADA/USD
ADA/USD eyes push higher to late-May/early-June highs. Source: FX Empire

Uphold Adds Cardano to its Platform

Digital money platform Uphold, which boasts a userbase of more than 1.7 million, has added Cardano to its platform. Users will now be able to buy, deposit and stake their ADA tokens (for an APY of 4%). “We’re proud to announce that, starting today, all Uphold wallets are fully compatible with the Cardano blockchain, and we’re excited about the opportunity to further support this community,” Uphold said in a blog post.

5 Things to Know in Crypto Today: BTC Consolidates Above $23K Ahead of US NFP

Key Points

  • Cryptocurrency prices are a little higher on Friday ahead of US jobs data, though mostly remain within recent ranges.
  • Stronger than expected jobs data could weigh on crypto if it boosts Fed tightening bets and vice versa.
  • Coinbase Global’s share price surged on Thursday amid news it is partnering with BlackRock to offer institutional trading services.

Market Update

Cryptocurrency prices have moved a little higher on Friday, but mostly remain well within this week’s ranges ahead of the release of US jobs data for July at 1230GMT. Bitcoin was last trading about 1.0% higher in the past 24 hours in the $23,200 area, according to CoinMarketCap, as the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization continues to find support at its 21-Day Moving Average near $22,700.

Ethereum, meanwhile, was last up about 2.2% in the last 24 hours, whilst the likes of BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOT and DOGE were all between 2-6% higher over the same time period. Analysts said news on Thursday that global asset management giant BlackRock has partnered with Coinbase to offer new crypto trading services to its institutional clients has helped give the mood within crypto a modest lift.

How US NFP Data Could Impact Crypto

According to the median analyst forecast, Friday’s US jobs data is expected to show that the US economy added 250,000 jobs in July. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is seen remaining unchanged at 3.6%, while Average Hourly Earnings growth is seen moderating to 4.9% from 5.1% YoY. In other words, the US labor market is expected to have moderated in strength in July, but still to have still remained robust by historical comparison.

Ongoing labor market strength is one of the key reasons why the US Federal Reserve thinks that the US economy can handle rapid rate hikes. So if the data later on Friday comes in stronger than expected, this could boost Fed tightening bets. This has the potential to weigh on risk assets like stocks and crypto, but if it also boosts optimism about the US economy not being in a recession yet, this could cushion any downside.

Coinbase Global’s Share Price Surges on Blackrock Partnership News

Coinbase Global’s share price surged over 10% higher on Thursday after news broke that global asset management giant Blackrock is set to offer its clients access to crypto trading services via Coinbase’s institutional platform, called Coinbase Prime. COIN shares had at one point been as much as 44% higher intra-day.

Reacting to the news, OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya sid that “calls that crypto is dead have been overdone… In fact, crypto is alive and well.” Moya called the Coinbase/Blackrock partnership “much-needed positive news for crypto traders” that “should provide some optimism for the longer-term health of the cryptoverse”.

FLOW Surges With Meta Platforms to Utilize Flow Blockchain to Expand NFT Features

FLOW, the native token that powers the Flow blockchain, has surged over 56% since Wednesday’s close in the $1.80s to current levels in the $2.80s. The cryptocurrency has received a boost on the news that Meta Platforms will utilize the Flow blockchain in order to expand its non-fungible token (NFT) offerings.

Meta this week announced an international expansion of its digital collectibles features that it successfully piloted on Instagram back in May. Meta will now support the Dapper wallet, whose creator Dapper Labs also created the Flow blockchain, as well as supporting the Coinbase wallet.

Nearly 7% of Spaniards Already Invested in Crypto, Regulator Says

According to a study carried out by Spain’s securities market regulator (CNMV), nearly 7% of Spanish citizens have already invested in crypto. According to the survey, hopes for profit and belief in the blockchain/distributed ledger technology that underpins crypto-motivated investors.

The Spanish markets regulator said it was concerned that investors might not appreciate the risks involved with investing in crypto, citing the fact that 40% of the crypto investors surveyed think the asset class is already regulated and 29% think it has a similar risk profile to other investors.

Crypto is, for the most part, still unregulated in Europe and is seen as having a much higher risk profile compared to traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds. Earlier in the year, CNMV announced a crackdown on crypto ads. Meanwhile, the EU recently struck a deal to implement broad crypto regulations (the Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation or MiCA bill), though it isn’t expected to come into force until 2024.

Wall Street Mixed Ahead of Friday’s US Jobs Data; Energy Stocks Drop 3.6% on Oil Price Decline

Key Points

  • Major US indices were mixed on Thursday, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting fresh highs since May but the Dow declining.
  • Energy stocks suffered amid a sharp drop in global oil prices on an increasingly gloomy economic outlook.
  • Investors are now focused on Friday’s US jobs data release that will inform economic/Fed policy expectations.

Indices Mixed, Energy Stocks Suffer Amid Further Oil Price Downside

Major US equity indices were mixed on Thursday, with the Nasdaq 100 index advancing 0.44% to fresh highs since early May above 13,300, the S&P 500 remaining flat near 4,150 and the Dow dropping 0.26% to near 32,725. Nasdaq 100 outperformance was driven by a more than 2.0% rise in Amazon’s share price, as well as a near 6.0% gain in Advanced Micro Devices. The Dow, meanwhile, was weighed by a near 4.0% drop in Walmart and a near 3.0% drop in Chevron.

Indeed, Chevron was not the only US energy name to suffer. Exxon Mobil dropped over 4.0% as the broader S&P 500 Energy GICS sector shed 3.6% amid further declines in global oil markets on an increasingly bleak demand outlook. WTI fell to its lowest levels since prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine back in February under $90 per barrel.

In terms of other major movers on Thursday, Coinbase Global’s share price ended the day 10% higher on the news that global asset management giant Blackrock is set to offer its clients access to crypto trading services via Coinbase’s institutional platform, Coinbase Prime. COIN shares had at one point been as much as 44% higher intra-day.

Investor Focus Turns to Friday’s NFP Data

Whilst Wall Street was mixed on Thursday, none of the major indices saw major moves beyond recent ranges, with investors cautious ahead of the release of key US labor market data for July on Friday. Recent data has pointed to a few developing economic narratives including the idea that US inflation has peaked and the idea that the labor market is now softening as the US economy slows.

Indeed, another rise in US weekly jobless claims according to data released on Thursday boosted the latter of these two narratives on Thursday, arguably weighing on the US dollar and US yields. Traders will view Friday’s data in the context of how it informs these narratives. If the pace of job gains slows from June’s 372,000, as expected, and the pace of Average Hourly Wage growth moderates from June’s 5.1% YoY, as expected, this may boost confidence in a less aggressive Fed tightening outlook.

Fed policymakers have this week been keen to warn markets not to get ahead of themselves betting on rate cuts in 2023, given that the inflation fight is far from won. Fed policymaker Loretta Mester said the Fed would need to see several months of inflation trending lower before the central bank will take its foot off the gas in terms of tightening and hinted that the bank is open to another 75 bps rate hike in September, depending on the data.

For now, markets are taking the view that this is just the Fed protecting its inflation-fighting credibility, after making the worst inflation call in decades in 2021 (when it was incorrectly calling inflation transitory).

WTI Falls Under $90, Hits Lowest Since Before Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine on Gloomy Outlook

Key Points

  • WTI fell to its lowest level since before Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine under $90 per barrel on Thursday.
  • Concerns about a weakening global economy after gloomy BoE forecasts and bearish US inventory figures weighed on sentiment.
  • Gold broke out to fresh near one-month highs in the $1,790s, boosted amid growth concerns and the weaker buck.

WTI Falls to Lowest Since February on Demand Outlook Woes

US oil prices endured another sharp decline on Thursday, dropping to their lowest levels since prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, with technicians warnings of further declines to come amid an increasingly gloomy outlook for the global economy. Front-month WTI futures contracts slid to around the $88 per barrel mark, their lowest since early February, with technicians talking about how a test of October/November 2021 highs in the $85 area looks likely.

The Bank of England raised rates by 50 bps on Thursday to 1.75% and promised more tightening ahead, encapsulating the push by major global central banks including the Fed and ECB to lift interest rates in order to prevent elevated inflation from becoming embedded. But higher interest rates at a time when the global economy is already slowing further adds to downside economic risks.

The Bank of England also released new economic forecasts, in which it now sees the UK economy falling into recession by Q4 2022 and not returning to growth until 2024. The pessimistic outlook appeared to unnerve crude oil traders, who have increasingly been moving to price in a rising risk of recession in major economies like the UK, Eurozone and US.

Traders said that US oil prices were also still feeling the negative effects of a bearish US crude oil inventory report released on Wednesday, which triggered worries about US demand in the midst of what would normally be peak driving season. Others said selling pressure was exaccerbated by reports that Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the last OPEC+ producers with any spare capacity to actually substantially lift oil output, are prepared to deliver a “significant increase” to output should the world face a supply crisis this winter.

Gold Breaks Higher on Growth Concerns, Buck/Yield Weakness

Despite concerns about the worsening global demand outlook, industrial metals mostly managed to move higher on Thursday, boosted by the weaker US dollar. Copper was last up about 0.1%, but still just below $3.50.

Gold prices, meanwhile, enjoyed a substantial near $30 bounce into the mid-$1,790s from earlier session lows around $1,763, boosted by an uptick in global growth fears post-BoE, the weaker buck and a drop in US bond yields. That was its highest levels since 5 July and marked a break above the important $1,785 resistance level.

Analysts warned that metals markets still face the risk of a significant chop on Friday depending on the message US jobs data for July sends about the health of the US economy and labor market, and based on how markets interpret this as impacting the Fed policy outlook. Signs of a moderation in labor market conditions (i.e. slower job gains) and slower wage growth could see Fed tightening bets pared and metals receive a boost.

GBP/USD Recovers Back to Green Despite Gloomy BoE Outlook on Weak Buck; DXY Slips 0.6%

Key Points

  • The US dollar fell on Thursday in tandem with US yields as jobless claims data showed US labor market softening.
  • USD weakness helped GBP/USD recover its post-BoE losses, with the pair last trading in the green above 1.2150.
  • But sterling was still a laggard versus most of its G10 peers following the BoE’s gloomy economic outlook.

Buck Slides as Data Shows Softening US Labor Market Ahead of Friday’s NFP

The US dollar fell on Thursday, weighed amid downside in US yields on US data showing a softening of the US labor market last week ahead of the release of official US jobs data for July on Friday. The Dollar Index (DXY) was last trading with losses of around 0.6% on the day in the 105.70 area, having fallen back from earlier session highs in the 106.50 area.

US data on Thursday showed a rise in the number of new jobless claims last week to 260,000 from 254,000 a week earlier, slightly above expectations. Weekly initial jobless claims have been trending higher since April when they bottomed at 167,000, indicative of a softening in the US labor market. However, data out on Friday is expected to show that the US economy still added 250,000 jobs in July, albeit a slower pace of job gains versus June, when 372,000 jobs were added.

Some analysts suggested that a sharp drop in US oil prices to levels not seen since Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine might have also weighed on the buck by giving a boost to the “peak inflation” narrative that has been gaining ground as of late. Lower US oil prices could help bring down elevated inflation, allowing the US Federal Reserve to take a slower approach to monetary tightening, thus weighing on the buck.

The weakening US dollar on Thursday ignored hawkish commentary from Fed policymaker Lorreta Mester, who said the Fed would need to see several months of inflation trending lower before the central bank will take its foot of the gas in terms of tightening and hinted that the bank is open to another 75 bps rate hike in September, depending on the data.

GBP Recoups Post-BoE Losses

The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 bps to 1.75% in an 8-1 vote on Thursday, as expected by most analysts and money market pricing and talked up the prospect of significant further tightening as it warned that the headline YoY rate of UK inflation could surpass 13% in October. However, the pound initially weakened given the BoE’s very gloomy new economic forecasts. The UK central bank thinks that the economy will slip into recession in Q4 this year and won’t return to growth until 2024.

The GBP reaction seemed to reflect skepticism amongst traders as to how much more tightening the BoE will be able to deliver given the weakening economic backdrop. But GBP/USD has since picked up from earlier session lows in the mid-1.2000s and was last back trading slightly to the upside of the 1.2150 level, up about 0.2% given a boost from US dollar weakness.

Compared to most of its G10 peers on the day, however, GBP is still a laggard. The euro, yen, kiwi and Aussie were all last trading higher by 0.5% to 0.8% versus the US dollar. The exception is the Canadian dollar, which is currently the worst performing G10 currency on Thursday amid sharp downside in global oil prices. Oil is one of Canada’s largest exports. Loonie traders await Canadian jobs data, also for July, on Friday, which will be released alongside the US figures.

Top 3 Trending Coins: BNB Surges Above $300, CRO Reverses Abruptly Lower From $0.16 Resistance

Key Points

  • BNB is the best top 50 crypto performer, having surged convincingly above $300 on Thursday.
  • Bitcoin is trading flat just under $23,000 ahead of key US data though one indicator is pointing to a bottom.
  • Cronos is the worst performing top 50 crypto, having reversed sharply lower from key $0.16 resistance.

Binance Coin (BNB) Breaks Convincingly Above $300, Eyes Push Towards $340

BNB, the native token that powers the Binance Smart Chain blockchain, broke convincingly above the $300 per token level on Thursday and was last changing hands just under $305. According to CoinMarketCap, the cryptocurrency was last up around 3.5% in the last 24 hours, making it one of the best performing cryptocurrencies in the top 50 by market capitalization.

BNB has rallied over 7.0% in the past two sessions and has now left its 100-Day Moving Average at $280 in the dust. The cryptocurrency is now about 66% higher versus its mid-June lows under $200 per token. The cryptocurrency maintains excellent bullish momentum and the BNB bulls are likely looking for a near-term test of resistance in the form of late-May highs and its 200DMA in the $340 area in the near future.

BNB/USD
BNB/USD rallies above $300. Source: FX Empire

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao Acknowledges New BNB/BTC All-time High

BNB, the token that powers the Binance Smart Chain, hit a new record high against Bitcoin hit a fresh record high above 0.013 BTC on Wednesday and has since surged above 0.01325 BTC. The crypto cross is over 60% up versus its May lows near 0.008 BTC and has now risen over 1150% since its early 2020 lows just above 0.001 BTC.

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao acknowledged the new all-time high versus Bitcoin in a tweet showing a screenshot of the BNB/BTC cross that he was sent in a chat. Implying that he is not prone to regularly checking the BNB price, he said in the tweet that “This is how I find out. In chats… from a person I have never met in person, no less.”

Bitcoin (BTC) Flatlines Just Under $23K Ahead of US Jobs Data

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap, was last trading nearly bang on flat on Thursday slightly below the $23,000 level, but still above its 21DMA near $22,600. Though the cryptocurrency posted a sixth successive negative close on Wednesday, it has only pulled back around 7.0% from last week’s highs in the mid-$24,000s.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to trade over 10% higher versus last week’s sub-$21,000 lows. The cryptocurrency still looks to be in a gradual uptrend that has supported the price action since mid-June’s lows under $18,000. Bulls will thus be eyeing a retest of recent highs in the mid-$24,000s at some point. But some technicians have warned that Bitcoin has formed a bearish flag, a break below which could trigger another drop back under $20,000.

BTC/USD
BTC/USD forming a bearish flag? Source: FX Empire

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Ribbon Compresses, Indicating Miner Capitulation and Acting as Buy Signal

The Bitcoin mining difficulty ribbon, which tracks moving averages of short to long-term mining difficulty, has compressed/inverted for the first time in a year. According to crypto data analytics firm Glassnode, this has previously been a signal that a bear market is ending.

Compression of the Bitcoin mining difficulty ribbon indicates that there has been significant miner capitulation, which occurs when miners reduce output and are forced to sell coins in order to fund their operational costs.

According to Markus Thielen, chief investment officer at IDEG Asset Management, “The bitcoin ribbon data set has historically proven to be an optimal entry point indicator and I believe this time it will show its predictive power again”. “We are also entering the 18-month pre-bitcoin-halving period – a time window where bitcoin prices tended to boom out,” he added.

Cronos (CRO) Reverses Sharply Lower From $0.16 Resistance

According to CoinMarketCap, Cronos is the worst performing cryptocurrency of the last 24 hours in the top 50 by market cap, having shed a little over 3.5% in value. CRO was last trading in the low-$0.14s per token, having reversed abruptly lower from a test of the key $0.16 resistance area earlier this week.

CRO/USD
CRO/USD reverses back sharply from $0.16 resistance. Source: FX Empire

Cardano Price Prediction: ADA Consolidates Near $0.50 Pre-US NFP With Bulls Still Eyeing $0.55

Key Points

  • Cardano’s native token ADA is currently consolidating near $0.50 in subdued trade ahead of Friday’s US jobs data.
  • However, ADA remains in an uptrend from July’s near-$0.40 lows, with bulls eyeing a retest of recent $0.55 highs.
  • A break above $0.55 could trigger a swift rally towards the $0.67 to $0.69 area.

Cardano Consolidates Near $0.50 Ahead of Key Macro Events

ADA, the native token that powers the Cardano blockchain, was last changing hands nearly bang on the $0.50 level, having so far on Thursday swung within a thin $0.4950 to $0.5100ish range, meaning the cryptocurrency has stayed well within recent ranges. ADA continues to hold above its 21-Day Moving Average near $0.4950, with cryptocurrency markets in wait-and-see mode ahead of the release of key US jobs data on Friday that could impact expectations for Fed policy tightening over the next few quarters.

Current price action is consistent with Cardano’s native token remaining in an uptrend from its mid-July lows close to $0.40. ADA/USD also continues to compress within an ascending triangle formation, with resistance in the $0.55 area having acted as a ceiling since mid-June.

ADA/USD
ADA/USD eyes retest of recent $0.55 highs. Source: FX Empire

These patterns often form ahead of a bullish breakout. For ADA to break above $0.55, it’s also going to need to push above its 100DMA just above $0.54. If the cryptocurrency can muster a break above this resistance area, it opens the door for a swift run higher towards the late May/early June highs in the $0.67-0.68 area.

ADA/USD
ADA/USD could break higher towards $0.67/69. Source: FX Empire

Cardano Ecosystem Posts Solid Growth in July

According to the latest tweet from one of Cardano’s official Twitter accounts @Cardano, the blockchain ecosystem posted impressive MoM growth statistics in July. The number of native tokens issued on the Cardano blockchain rose 6.34% to 5.7 million. The number of transactions rose 4.9% to 47 million.

The number of wallets rose 2.27% to 3.5 million and the number of Plutus Scripts (Cardano’s smart contract platform) rose 4.75% to 2,993. This has now surpassed 3,000 in August, according to Cardano Blockchain Insights data.

Cardano-Cosmos Bridge Under Development

Peggy 2.0 and Sifchain are developing a Cardano-Cosmos bridge that, according to Twitter account @cardano_daily, “will unlock new cross-chain opportunities between these two ecosystems and offer new solutions to existing problems”. Moreover, the bridge “will deliver never-before-seen network effects that will scale the reach and adoption of both families of blockchains,” said @cardano_daily.

According to the Twitter account, “Cosmos and Cardano share common goals around research-backed development, community-driven applications, and global accessibility of blockchain-based solutions, with interoperability at heart”. Given Cosmos’ $200 million in cross-chain transactions, 40 chains and thousands of dApps, the “Cardano ecosystem would benefit from a connection to Cosmos in many ways”.

5 Things to Know in Crypto Today: BTC Holds Above 21DMA Near $23K as Investors Monitor Macro Risks

Key Points

  • Cryptocurrency markets are in consolidation on Thursday ahead of key macro risks, after failing to track Wednesday’s US equity rally.
  • Bitcoin was last trading close to $23,000 and above its 21DMA, having posted a sixth successive negative close on Wednesday.
  • Solana developers are blaming the ecosystem’s recent wallet hack on the Solana-based Slope wallet.

Crypto Markets Consolidate Ahead of Key Macro Risks

Cryptocurrency markets are in a broadly consolidative mood on Thursday, as investors monitor upcoming macro risk events including an expected 50 bps rate hike from the Bank of England at 1100GMT and then more US data ahead of the release of the all-important US labor market report for July on Friday. Bitcoin posted a sixth successive session in the red on Wednesday, but only saw a modest decline and continues to trade near $23,000, above its 21-Day Moving Average around $22,600.

Technicians think its gradual uptrend since June lows remains intact. In terms of the major altcoins, the likes of ETH, ADA, SOL, DOT and DOGE are all broadly flat in the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap, while BNB is an outperformer and was last up closer to 5.0%. Disappointingly for the bulls, crypto prices failed to track upside in the US stock market on Wednesday after strong US data and corporate earnings spurred optimism about the US economy.

Bitcoin May Behave More Like US Bonds or Gold, Says Bloomberg Analyst

According to Bloomberg Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone’s latest Crypto Outlook report, Bitcoin may soon start behaving more like US Treasury Bonds or Gold as opposed to stocks. “Plunging global growth supports the Federal Reserve’s shift to a ‘meeting by meeting’ bias in July, which may help pivot Bitcoin toward a directional tilt more like US Treasury bonds than stocks,” McGlone argued.

Referring to Bitcoin’s outperformance as an asset class since its inception over a decade ago, McGlone said that “we think more of the same is ahead, particularly as it may be transitioning toward global collateral”. The analyst added that it’s “abnormal for Bitcoin to hold much below its 200-week moving average”. At current levels, Bitcoin is trading just above its 200WMA near $28,000.

Institutional Traders Bullish on Bitcoin, See Fed Policy as Key Risk, Says Cumberland

According to a survey of institutional traders conducted by Chicago-based market-maker Cumberland, optimism about a potential Bitcoin rebound remains strong. “Even in the wake of a severe sell-off, the average respondent was still high-conviction bullish,” Cumberland commented, referring to the survey.

The median survey respondent saw Bitcoin prices potentially dipping as low as $16,000 this year, though also potentially bouncing to about $32,000. According to the survey, institutional traders view the path of Fed monetary policy tightening as the most important influence for Bitcoin in the medium term. “It’s very striking that the most common response for both positive and negative catalysts is movement by the Fed,” Cumberland noted.

Solana Wallet Exploit Likely Linked to Slope Wallet, Developers Say

Developers of the Solana blockchain said on Wednesday that the Solana-based Slope wallet is the source of an ongoing exploit that has seen more than 9,000 Solana wallets drained of millions of dollars’ worth of digital assets. “This does not appear to be a bug with Solana core code, but in software used by several software wallets popular among users of the network,” said a Twitter account run by the Solana foundation.

Over $2B Lost in 13 Separate Crypto Bridge Hacks This Year

In a report released this week, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis estimates that $2 billion in crypto assets has been stolen from bridges in 13 separate exploits this year. “Attacks on cross-chain bridges account for 69% of total funds stolen so far this year,” it added.

A bridge is a software usually consisting of smart contracts that enable tokens to be transferred from one network to another. The report follows the hack of the Nomad bridge this week, which resulted in the loss of the protocol’s entire collateral of $190 million.

Nasdaq Surges 2.7% As Strong Earnings/US Data Boost Growth Stocks; PayPal Gains 9.0%

Key Points

  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both broke out to fresh multi-week highs.
  • Stocks were boosted by a combination of strong earnings, robust US data and softer Fed commentary.
  • Growth stocks led the charge, with the Information Technology, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary S&P 500 GICS sectors outperforming.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Break Higher Amid Strong Earnings, Robust US Data, Fed Commentary

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices broke out to fresh multi-week highs on Wednesday after strong US ISM Services PMI data for July and Factory Orders figures for June spurred optimism that the US economy is, for now, not in recession and on a barrage of strong earnings report. Stocks also found comfort in remarks from Fed policymaker Mary Daly, who played down the prospect of another 75 bps rate hike from the central bank in September, despite also pushing back (as other Fed policymakers have also done in the past two days) against excessively dovish market expectations for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates in early 2023.

That proved a bullish cocktail for equities, with the S&P 500 index rallying 1.6% to push above 4,150 for the first time since early June and leave its 100-Day Moving Average just under 4,120 in the dust. Bulls continue to target a test of early June highs near 4,180. The Nasdaq 100 index, meanwhile, surged 2.7% to hit its highest since early May in the 13,200s, while the Dow gained 1.3% to move back above its 100DMA just above 32,700.

Growth/Big Tech Stocks Lead the Way

“Growth” stocks, including some of the largest names like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta Platforms led the market rally on Wednesday. “An economy that is not falling into recession but is not roaring higher at this time would have you shift away from value stocks into growth,” said Bokeh Capital Management’s chief investment officer Kim Forrest.

A near 10% surge higher in PayPal Holding’s share price after the payment tech firm lifted its profit forecast for the year and disclosed that activist investor Elliot Management had built up a $2 billion stake helped spur the gains in growth stocks. The growth stocks dense Information Technology, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary S&P 500 GICS sectors were the best performers on Wednesday, each gaining between 2.5%-3.0% on the day.

In terms of other major stocks to have reported earnings; CVS Health, the largest US pharmaceutical chain, jumped after raising its 2022 profit forecast, Starbucks rallied after beating bottom-line analyst expectations in Q2 amid robust demand for its coffee in the US, while Moderna surged following the announcement of a $3 billion share buyback scheme.

USD/JPY Bounces Another 0.75% Above 134.00; US Data Reduces Recession Fears

Key Points

  • Strong US data and optimism that the Fed might pull off a “soft landing” boosted risk-sensitive currencies and the buck.
  • The Aussie, kiwi and loonie performed well while the yen suffered amid further upside in US bond yields.
  • Fed policymakers continued to push back against market pricing for rate cuts in early 2023, though one also played down the prospect of a 75 bps rate hike in September.

Risk-sensitive Currencies and Buck Gain as Rate Sensitive FX Loses

Strong US economic data that spurred optimism that the Fed might be able to pull off a so-called “soft landing” as it raises interest rates in order to tackle multi-decade high inflation level and broadly upbeat US corporate earnings triggered risk-on flows on Wednesday that benefitted risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars. Meanwhile, further risk-on-related upside in US bond yields saw the rate-sensitive safe-haven yen and swiss franc lose ground against the broadly stronger US dollar.

AUD/USD reversed back to trading close to the 0.6940 mark from an earlier dip under 0.6900 and NZD/USD reversed an earlier dip to test its 21-Day Moving Average at 0.6210 and was last changing hands just above 0.6250. The Aussie is still substantially weaker versus Tuesday’s pre-dovish RBA highs. USD/CAD, meanwhile pulled back from session highs near 1.2900 to trade near its 50DMA around 1.2850, with the loonie resilient to a sharp drop in global oil prices given US economic optimism (the US is Canada’s largest trade partner).

USD/JPY gained another 0.75% on Wednesday, taking its bounce from Tuesday’s near-130.00 lows to around 2.8%, when the pair found strong support at its 100DMA. The pair was last changing hands just above 134.00, with an earlier attempt to rebound above 134.50 having been blocked by its 50DMA. USD/JPY is likely to remain choppy in the coming days as it tracks US bond yields, which have seen wild swings this week on US economic data and Fed commentary.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD both fell slightly amid the stronger US dollar. The DXY as choppy but ultimately moved a little higher and was last trading near 106.50.

ISM Services PMI Survey and Factory Orders Suggest US Economy Not in Recession

Two major US economic reports were released on Wednesday, with both coming in better than expected and boosting optimism that the US economy might not be in a recession (yet). ISM Services PMI survey data showed that activity in the dominant US services sector unexpectedly rose to 56.7 in July from 55.3 in June, snapping a three-month decline and, when combined with Monday’s ISM manufacturing PMI report, suggesting that US economic activity did not contract in July.

The latest ISM Services report, like the Manufacturing one released on Monday, hinted toward a substantial drop in input price inflation faced by businesses, with the prices paid subindex dropping substantially to 72.3 from 80.1, its lowest since March 2021. Elsewhere, Factory Orders expanded at a MoM pace of 2.0% in June, better than the expected 1.1% rise. Analysts said that this positive surprise raises the likelihood of a positive revision to the next estimate of US Q2 GDP growth.

Fed Pushes Back on 2023 Rate Cuts, But Also More 75 Bps Rate Hikes

Fed policymakers have been out in force in the last two days reiterating the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation, in what analysts have interpreted as a concerted effort to push back against excessively dovish market expectations for the Fed to start cutting rates in early 2021.

The usually dovish Fed policymaker Mary Daly explicitly criticized expectations for rate cuts in early 2023, though she also said a 50 bps rate hike would likely be appropriate in September. According to the CME’s Fed Watch Tool, the odds of a 50 bps rate hike at that meeting are currently 56.5% versus 43.5% for another 75 bps hike.

Analysts are looking ahead to Friday’s US labor market report for further input into the US economic story. A moderation in the headline pace of job gains and wage growth would likely ease Fed tightening concerns and contibute to the narrative of a slowing US economy.

WTI Slumps to Fresh Five-month Lows Under $90.50 on Bearish US Inventories; Gold & Copper Flat

Key Points

  • WTI dropped close to five-month lows on Wednesday, weighed by a bearish US inventory report and US/Iran talks.
  • OPEC+ agreed to a modest 100K barrel per day output hike for September.
  • Copper and gold both moved sideways as traders digested the latest stronger-than-expected US data.

WTI Drops Near Five-month Lows on Bearish US Inventory Report

Front-month futures of the US benchmark for sweet light crude oil, West Texas Intermediary or WTI, dropped to close to five-month lows on Wednesday. WTI was last changing hands just under $90.50 per barrel, close to July lows, having dropped around $3.20 on the session. WTI is now convincingly below its 200-Day Moving Average just above $95.00 once again.

Traders cited a bearish official weekly US oil inventory report as the main factor weighing on prices on Wednesday. Headline US crude oil stocks rose by a massive 4.5 million barrels last week despite expectations for a 600,000 barrel draw. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories also rose by 200,000 barrels, higher than expectations for a 1.6 million barrel draw. Analysts said that it is highly unusual for gasoline stocks to rise during the peak US summer driving season.

The report thus contributed to a build-up in fears about the demand outlook in the US, even though other economic data released on Wednesday (ISM Services PMI survey and Factory Order figures) raised optimism that the US economy might not (yet) be in recession.

US/Iran Talks, OPEC+ Output Hike Add to Selling Pressure

Earlier in the week, sources had hinted towards the likelihood that OPEC+ would agree to no change to their output policy in September. As it happened on Wednesday, the group of oil-producing nations agreed to a modest 100,000 production quota lift, potentially adding to the downwards pressure on oil prices.

Analysts also cited news that high-level US and Iranian officials are returning to Vienna to resume stalled indirect discussions on reviving the defunct 2015 nuclear agreement. The US broke with the agreement during the Trump administration and implemented harsh sanctions against Iranian oil exports. Hopes are low that talks will go anywhere, but a removal of sanctions has the prospect of returning well over 1M barrels per day in Iranian exports to global markets.

Copper, Gold Move Sideways

Elsewhere in commodity markets, copper prices were flat just under $3.50, as traders weighed the headwinds of a slightly stronger US dollar and higher US bond yields against the tailwinds of stronger US data that reduced fears about a US recession. Gold prices, meanwhile, consolidated within a mid-$1,750 to low-$1,770s range and were last changing hands just above $1,760.

Metal traders will be closely scrutinizing official US labor market data on Friday for further insight into the strength of the US economy and into the Fed tightening story.

Top 3 Trending Coins: APE Hits Multi-Month Highs and UNI Rallies as Solana Wallet Hack Hits SOL

Key Points

  • ApeCoin hit its highest since late May and is outperforming on Wednesday after Gucci announced it will accept APE payments.
  • Uniswap is also fairing well and is the best performer in the crypto top 20.
  • Solana is the worst performing top 20 crypto, weighed following news that Solana wallets were hacked.

ApeCoin (APE)

ApeCoin broke out to its highest levels since late May on Wednesday above $7.40 per token and was last trading in the $7.30s and with gains of over 10% on the day. According to CoinMarketCap, APE has gained over 15% in the last 24 hours, making it the best performing cryptocurrency in the top 50 by market capitalization.

APE/USD has arguably been in a technical uptrend since mid-June, with the 21-Day Moving Average (currently at $6.13) also offering support more recently. The cryptocurrency is now probing an area of support turned resistance from May in the $7.50 region. If it can get above this, a challenge of $8.0 seems likely.

APE/USD
APE/USD breaks out to fresh highs since May. Source: FX Empire

Gucci to Accept ApeCoin Payments

Iconic high-end luxury fashion brand Gucci announced on Tuesday that it will now accept in-store purchases in ApeCoin through its payment service provider BitPay, news which likely gave APE a boost. Gucci’s move to accept ApeCoin comes after it began accepting payments in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and various USD-pegged stablecoins back in May. Gucci competitors such as Balenciaga and Farfetch also began accepting crypto payments this year.

Uniswap (UNI)

UNI, the native token that power’s the predominantly Ethereum-based decentralized exchange (DEX) Uniswap, was last trading higher by close to 8% on Wednesday. The cryptocurrency found significant demand when it retested its 200-Day Moving Average just under $8.20 earlier in the session and, aided by a broader bounce in crypto prices on Wednesday, has rallied to just under $9.0 per token.

UNI bulls will be eyeing a test of the near-$10 highs that the token printed last week and the cryptocurrency’s technical outlook looks positive. UNI has been in an uptrend since mid-June and a break above the $10 resistance area could open the door to a swift rally towards the next area of resistance around $12.50.

UNI/USD
UNI/USD uptrend remains intact. Source: FX Empire

Uniswap Expensive Compared to Other Exchanges, According to Market Cap/Revenue Ratio

According to the anonymous host of InvestAnswers, UNI is expensive in comparison to the share price of leading US crypto exchange Coinbase Global and versus the share prices of the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges. The host said that Uniswap has a market cap to revenue ratio of 6.7 ($6.7 billion in market cap versus $1 billion in annual revenue). This is nearly twice as high as the NYSE’s ratio and significantly above Coinbase’s 2:1 ratio.

Still, the host remains positive on UNI, noting that “considering the growth of DEXs and their popularity and how they’ve survived and thrived during this bear [market] winter, I think the future is very bright for Uniswap”. “The question is, could Uniswap do a 3x from here? I say, yes it could,” they added.

Solana (SOL)

Solana is the worst performing cryptocurrency in the top 20 by market cap on Wednesday, weighed by news that thousands of Solana wallets were hacked. SOL, the native token that powers the Solana blockchain, was last about 1.0% lower on the day and trading in the mid-$39s per token.

Despite the news of the hack, the slightly better tone to broader cryptocurrency market conditions is keeping SOL above its 50-Day Moving Average in the mid-$37.00s for now. Technicians are also eyeing a potential test of an uptrend that has been supporting the price action since mid-June. So long as SOL can stay above this uptrend, it arguably still has a modestly positive near-term technical bias.

SOL/USD
SOL/USD uptrend remains intact despite recent dip. Source: FX Empire

Solana Wallets Hit in Multimillion Dollar Hack

Late on Tuesday, the Solana blockchain’s crypto ecosystem came under attack. As of early Wednesday morning, at least $8 million worth of crypto has been drained from more than 8,000 different “hot” wallets, including Phantom, Slope and TrustWallet. “Hot” wallets are those that stay connected to the internet at all times to provide users with convenience when sending, receiving or storing digital assets.

Twitter users speculated that the hackers might have access to users’ private keys, thus giving them wallet access. But the exact cause of the attack remains unknown. A spokesperson from Phantom, the developer of the most widely used Solana wallet, told the crypto media that “we are evaluating the incident impacting Solana wallets and are working closely with other teams in the ecosystem to get to the bottom of this”. “The team doesn’t believe this is a Phantom-specific issue at this time,” they added.

Cardano Price Prediction: ADA Uptrend Remains Intact, With Bull Still Eyeing $0.55 Resistance

Key Points

  • Cardano has rebounded from its 21DMA back to the $0.51 area, with its recent uptrend looking intact.
  • Bulls are still eyeing a retest of $0.55 recent highs and a possible ascending triangle breakout towards late-May/early-June highs.
  • Cardano’s founder Charles Hoskinson said he didn’t expect further Vasil hard fork delays earlier this week.

Cardano Bulls Continue to Look for Retest of $0.55 Recent Highs

ADA, the native token that powers the Cardano blockchain, has bounced more than 2.5% on Wednesday, amid a broad uptick in cryptocurrency prices thanks to an improved global macro risk tone. ADA/USD was last changing hands close to $0.51, having found solid support at its 21-Day Moving Average in the low-$0.49s earlier in the session.

The latest ADA bounce suggests that the uptrend from mid-July lows just above $0.40 remains intact. Short-term bullish speculators will likely continue to position for a retest of recent highs in the $0.55 area.

ADA/USD
ADA/USD bulls eye retest of recent $0.55 highs. Source: FX Empire

As noted in prior articles, Cardano looks to have formed an ascending triangle formation in recent weeks. The $0.55 area has been acting as the ceiling, while the aforementioned uptrend has been offering support. Technical patterns like this often precede a bullish breakout. For such a break to occur, ADA would need to push above $0.55, but if it can muster this breakout, then the door would be open, technically speaking, for a swift rally all the way to test the late-May/early-June highs in the $0.67-$0.69 area.

ADA/USD
A break in ADA/USD above $0.55 could trigger a swift rally to $0.67-$0.69. Source: FX Empire

Cardano Founder Hoskinson Doesn’t Anticipate Further Vasil Upgrade Delays

Earlier this week, Cardano’s founder Charles Hoskinson said in an interview that he doesn’t think there will be further delays to the Vasil hard fork and that final testing is being done. “We’re kind of in the final stages of testing in that respect… So unless anything new is discovered, I don’t anticipate that we’ll have any further delays,” he said.

Hoskinson noted that things are “steadily and systematically” moving in the right direction and that the Cardano development team at Input Output Global (IOG) should hopefully be ready to deliver a progress update by mid-August.

Swiss “Digital Bank” Sygnum Introduces Cardano Staking Service

Swiss bank Sygnum will not offer a Cardano staking service to its clients, allowing them to generate yield whilst HODLing ADA with the bank. The Swiss bank, which refers to itself as the “world’s first digital asset bank”, said it stake services are “fully integrated with its banking platform, with institutional-grade security guaranteed with via segregated wallets, secure private key management and multi-layer security infrastructure”.

No. of Deployed Cardano-based Smart Contracts Surpasses 3,000 Milestone

In a major milestone in the development of Cardano’s Decentralized Finance (DeFi) ecosystem, the number of smart contracts deployed on the Cardano blockchain va Plutus Scripts (Cardano’s main smart-contract platform) recently surpassed 3,000, according to Cardano Blockchain Insights data. Cardano’s Alonso hard fork upgrade back in 2021 added smart contract functionality to its blockchain for the first time, kickstarting the development of Cardano-based DeFi applications.