EUR/USD Continuation Below 1.0560

The ECB has been dovish which might further push EUR yields lower while technical charts have been showing strong selling into rallies.  This looks like a corrective rally again, where the EUR might be sold into rally within the POC zone. The POC, 1.0625-40 (trend line, 78.6, H4, previous triple top) could reject the price towards 1.0560. If the pair proceeds below 1.0560 without a retracement, that should be the sign of further continuation towards 1.0540 and 1.0500 as the confluence between L3, ascending trend line and ATR pivot will be broken.

EUR/USD Chart
EUR/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

GBP/JPY Double Bottom within POC Zone

The GBP/JPY might be a good mover today and this week due to its high ATR range which shows 163 average in last 14 days. The ATR is the tool that shows not just the range but the actual volatility of a given pair. The GBP/JPY aka “The Dragon” is currently in downtrend and the first POC comes within 141.00-20 zone (historical double bottom, H4,50.0, ATR pivot). In the case of further retracement up the pair might hit POC2 141.60-80 (historical master candle breakout, 61.8, ATR top) and reject. Targets are 140.50 and 139.30. If the pair makes a clear 1h momentum break of 4h close below 139.30 then 138.78 is next. Due to US holiday, Monday can be a bit slower than usual but volatility should resume later when Tokyo session kicks in.

GBP/JPY Chart
GBP/JPY Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

USD/JPY Common Gap in Uptrend

The USD/JPY opened higher with a common gap caused by thin liquidity and Abe-Trump talks. The pair needs to continue below a bullish order block -113.44 in order to close the gap. POC zone is 112.90-113.05 (L3, ATR low, EMA89, 50.0). If we see more retracement to the downside POC 2 is the final confluence zone for a bounce 112.55-65 (Ascending trend line, L4, 78.6). Targets are 113.50 followed by 113.75 and 114.20.  The pair is bullish now and will remain bullish as long as 112.00 holds.

USD/JPY Chart
USD/JPY Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

EUR/USD Confluence at Channel Top

The EUR/USD has been trapped within the bearish channel, with clear levels where it might react. The ATR of the pair is not big but there is still room for a good intraday movement. The POC zone 1.0710-25 (DPP, H3, EMA89, channel top) could reject the price again on a retest. The pair seems on its way towards 1.0625 an X cross ™ confluence support. H1 momentum or close below 1.0625 could be a breakout opportunity towards 1.0608 – projection low and 1.0585 L5 support. However, if 1.0735 breaks to the upside, it will signal an interim strength and some covering so the EUR/USD could spike to 1.0775.

EUR/USD Chart
EUR/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets.

USD/JPY Bullish Above 113.40

The USD/JPY  is trapped in a range mode particularly because Trump’s protectionist policies that can give some USD strength vs JPY but can cause weakness against EM currencies. USD is gaining its power mostly due to US monetary policy which suggest 2-3 more rate hikes. Conversely Japan yield curves are relatively low.

Technically we can spot a POC zone within 113.45-70 zone ( L4, ATR low, Inner trend line, ascending trend line). Retracement in the zone could spike the pair up. Target is 115.60 followed by 115.80. However a clear 4h close above 115.85 is needed for a further continuation up towards 116.65 and 117.85. However if the pair closes below 113.50, we might see a stop grabber and additional momentum towards 112.00 zone.

USD/JPY Chart
USD/JPY Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

GBP/USD Getting Close to Resistance

The GBP/USD spiked strongly after UK PM Theresa May’s speech and currently it is aiming for 1.2490-1.2510. Daily chart is showing a version of rising three methods so the pair is still bullish. 4h close or 1h momentum above 1.2445 is needed and the pair might get to the POC zone -1.2490-1.2510. However, we also see bearish divergence so once the pair hits the POC zone (bearish divergence, bearish order block, H5, ATR pivot) it might initially drop.  Rejections from POC or any failures to break and close above 1.2445 could bring the pair down towards 1.2400 and 1.2360. 1.2270 is the strong support and it needs to break in order for bears to gain control again.

GBP/USD Chart
GBP/USD Chart

However, If the pair fails to reject from POC zone, pay attention to 1.2535. If it breaks to the upside next target should be 1.2570.

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

Exclusive GBP/USD Analysis 16.01.2017

GBP/USD Common or Breakaway Gap?

Talks about hard Brexit over the weekend, hit the pound hard. UK PM Theresa May is set to make a keynote speech on Brexit on January 15. The pound could be very volatile and any mention of hard Brexit will additionally hit the pound.

Technically we can spot a retail gap that was formed over the weekend and the gap hasn’t been closed yet. I see this either as breakaway gap or a common gap. The breakaway gap will be confirmed if the GBP/USD fails to break and close above 1.2080 so any potential gap close will be delayed. If this is a common gap then we might see a gradual gap close. 1.2160-80 is the POC for new shorts on gap close. Notice that L5 has been over show and that pound is really under pressure so next target is 1.1940 followed by 1.1900. So traders pay attention to 1.2080 and POC zone.

GBP/USD Chart
GBP/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

Exclusive EUR/USD Analysis 09.01.2017

EUR/USD Consolidation in Progress

Low NFP but good wages and full employment boosted the USD on Friday. The EUR/USD has been rejected from its highs as presumed and currently it is consolidating in 1.0620-1.0450 range. Consolidation is also confirmed by low ATR for the last 14 days. 1.0610-20 is the interim resistance and should still reject the upside. However should it break the EUR will proceed to 1.0650-70 POC zone (Historical sellers, complete fib retracement of the last swing). Targets are 1.0500 and 1.0465. So from intra week perspective, traders should be focused on 1.0610-20 rejections and if the zone breaks then next selling zone is 1.0650-70.

EUR/USD Chart
EUR/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

Exclusive GBP/USD Analysis 27.12.2016

GBP/USD Bullish Divergence in Progress

The GBP/USD is showing regular bullish divergence close to the important support at L4 weekly camarilla pivot. The lack of action during and before holidays has led to a consolidation period indicated by the symmetrical triangle. However, we can spot a possible sign of reversal should the pair stay above 1.2225. POC zone comes within 1.2245-55 (triangle lower trend line, L3, bullish order block) and we could see a spike leading to 1.2293 followed by 1.2310. 1h momentum or 4h close above 1.2310 should test 1.2340. Traders should beware of thin liquidity during holidays and if the price goes below 1.2225, a retest of 1.2200 is possible.

GBP/USD Chart
GBP/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets.

Exclusive EUR/USD Analysis 19.12.2016

Trading slowly enters in a holiday season mode so we might see some illiquid volume. In spite of inflation moving higher and some improvements in the EU zone economy in Q3, the pair is still being sold on rallies so that is the safest route to go. Zig zags are easy to spot as the pair goes with easy to spot lower high, lower low pattern. POC zone (50.0, H3, bearish order block, X cross ™) comes within 1.0505-20 and we could see a rejection within the zone towards 1.0366. Trading within the zone could be possible so we might have some end of day swings. However if 1.0360 is broken with a high momentum (marubozu) or we see a 4h candle close below 1.0360 then 1.0280 is possible.

EUR/USD Chart
EUR/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets.

Exclusive EUR/USD Analysis 12.12.2016

EUR/USD Still Under Pressure

The extension of ECB’s QE program pulled down the EUR/USD towards 1.0500 support. The ECB Quantitative Easing purchases per month were decreased from EU80Bn to EU60Bn and the market was looking for the cues of an eventual end of the QE, that didn’t happen.

Technically the EUR/USD is retracing up the trend line towards POC zone (61.8, EMA89, bearish order block) 1.0620-40. Retracement is supported by a regular bullish divergence at 1.0525. The POC zone could provide rejection and the EUR/USD should retest 1.0500 zone should 1.0680 holds. Traders should also pay attention to 1.0602 as it is an interim resistance. If the pair rejects from H4 or POC zone the targets are 1.0550 and 1.0525. 4h close or 1h momentum below 1.0525 target 1.0505 and 1.0455.

EUR/USD Chart
EUR/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets.

Exclusive GBP/USD Analysis 05.12.2016

GBP/USD Bullish above 1.2500

GBP/USD Chart
GBP/USD Chart

The GBP/USD behaved exactly as planned during early Monday trading as we suggested on our webinar regarding Italian referendum. The cable is still ranging with slightly bullish bias as Services PMI came better than expected. From a technical view we have 2 order blocks. The first order block is significant for short term traders and scalpers (1.2695) as the price could bounce on a subsequent retest. Positional traders and swing traders should watch for POC within 1.2545-60 zone (L4, EMA89, bullish order block). As long as the price is above 1.2500 it is confined by the bullish range. The target is 1.2750. Above 1.2750 we could see 1.2825, H3 camarilla weekly pivot.

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

Exclusive GBP/USD Analysis 28.11.2016

GBP/USD Month End Flows Have The Strong Impact on The British Pound

The GBP/USD is going up strengthened by the good Autumn forecast statement and Second Estimate GDP. Additionally, we saw USD weakening as there could be a possible vote recount in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But earlier today EUR/GBP demand tanked the GBP strongly. Seems like Bundesbank has been buying EUR/GBP around month ends so we might assume sell into rallies on GBP/USD might continue.

From a technical perspective we see a strong bearish pressure where 2 trend line have been broken. POC1 1.2420-35 (L4, trend line, bearish order block) and POC 2 1.2440-55 (trend line, L3, EMA89,DPP) could reject the price on a retest towards 1.2360. Break below 1.2360 targets 1.2300. Sell on rallies is still the valid option especially when we assume that the strong bank might be behind the move.

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GBP/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

Exclusive GBP/USD analysis 21.11.2016

GBP/USD Giant Head and Shoulders looming on 4H charts

The GBP/USD recent data has been mixed. While retails sales data came better than expected, core CPI was worse than expected. I think the GBP/USD may be ranging at this point as sell the rallies scenario is still dominating the pair.

Technically, we can see a giant Head and Shoulders pattern on 4h time frame and clear POC zone signals sellers could appear. POC (H3, WPP, neckline, descending trend line, EMA89, 50.0) 1.2395-1.2415 could reject the price if we see the retracement to the upside towards 1.2300. However if we see bearish continuation without any retracement then pay attention to 1.2300. Strong H1 momentum or 4h close below 1.2300 should target 1.2255-33 zone. Only above 1.2500 ( Xcross ™) bulls might region a temporary control.

GBP/USD Chart
GBP/USD 4H Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

Exclusive EUR/USD Analysis 14.11.2016

EUR/USD Weakness Should Continue

USD strength after Trump’s win on election, continues to dominate the market. US Dollar Index is rising, EUR/USD is falling as hopes for the Donald Trump’s promise that he will ditch current policy in favor of a high-spend, low-tax regime are going strong.

The EUR/USD finally hit 1.0800 flat and below and is currently targeting 1.0749 and 1.0596 if we see a 4h close below 1.0700. The pair is riding the descending trend line, and that is the indication of a strong trend. In case of retracement for a new short entry, pay attention to 1.0870-85 (previous breakout point, bearish order block) and 1.0985-1.1100 on a deeper retracement (H3, WPP, EMA89, X cross ™. Targets for short trades in case of retracement are 1.0800, 1.0722 and 1.0596.

EUR/USD Chart
EUR/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

Exclusive EUR/USD Analysis 07.11.2016

EUR/USD Riding The Descending Trend Line

USD strength was witnessed over the Asia session earlier today as the FBI cleared Clinton on the email issue.  Weaker than expected Factory Orders in Germany has lead to some weakness in the EUR.  I expect USD strength to continue against the EUR, however, by mindful that the US elections are tomorrow, and any hint that Trump could win the primary votes could send the USD lower again.

Technically any pre election risk off sentiment could spike the price up, but generally speaking POC zone is a good spot for possible new shorts. 1.1075-1.1090 (WPP, EMA89, L3, trend line, symmetrical triangle lower boundary) could tank the price again towards 1.1039 (bullish order block-historical) and 1.1025. The pair is currently riding down the trendline and any 1h momentum or 4h close below 1.1020 could further weaken the pair towards 1.0985 and 1.0930.

US election is getting very close and in the case of USD weakness watch out for 1.1135 breakout to the upside towards 1.1190.

EUR/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets.

Exclusive EUR/USD Analysis 31.10.2016

EUR/USD Cross Looming at Support

The week ahead will be full for US dollar from ISM manufacturing report to NFP data. Friday profit taking made some retracement in EUR/USD but again, we need to take it in the context of downtrend. If we consider historical sellers as always important factor in technical analysis, we will see that EUR/USD is attempting to reach the zone that is marked on the chart as POC.

POC zone comes within 1.0988-1.1018 (88.6, H3, trend line, historical sellers). First target is 1.0945. Should EUR proceed lower 4h close or 1h momentum below 1.0895 is needed for another retest of 1.0850. Break of 1.0850 aims for 1.0830-00. Any dollar news will also reflect on the pair so pay attention to this week’s calendar too.

EUR/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets.

Exclusive GBP/USD analysis 25.10.2016

GBP/USD Historical Sellers are Close

The GBP/USD trading has been normalized and as I already explained, it is much safer to sell on rallies. Last week we saw some retracement which was again sold into so POC zones could come in play again. 1.2250-60 is the closest POC zone (inner trend line, 50.0, H3) that makes a confluence with historical sellers (purple rectangle). Rejection from the zone targets 1.2200 and 1.2170. Only if we see a 4h close below or h1 momentum below 1.2170 the scope for 1.2130 will be open. Usually on Mondays we have some false trends shaping up so any up-move should be watched as a retracement in downtrend.

Pay attention to 1.2285 because the price should be ideally below it else it might breakout to 1.2315.

GBP/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

Exclusive EUR/USD Analysis Oct 18 2016

The EUR/USD has been sold on rallies as I suggested on my previous article. It was very clear that bears are having the upper hand now and this should continue in this week. Daily chart is showing signs of further weakness as we can spot strong momentum candle (marubozu). For positional trades we always want to have a better price to sell/buy so for next shorts we have 2 possible POC zones. POC1 comes within 1.1030-45 zone (H3 weekly camarilla, WPP, bearish order block). Should retracement go deeper we need to pay attention to POC 2 1.1095-1.1110 (H4, bearish order block, EMA89). Rejection off POC zones will target 1.0950 and 1.0905. If we see no retracement, then we will need to pay attention to 4h candle close below 1.0950 that might tank the pair to 1.0905. 4h or daily close below 1.0905 targets 1.0840.

EUR/USD Chart
EUR/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

Exclusive EUR/USD Analysis 11.10.2016

EUR/USD Bearish but Trapped in a Running Triangle

The absence of any important data today, bank holidays in USA and Canada might be an excuse for potentially slow price action on major crosses, especially EUR/USD. EUR/USD aka “the fiber” is slowly moving down, trapped within a symmetrical running triangle and currently it is in no man’s land. I don’t expect that ECB will consider a change to interest rates anytime soon and that will cap the fiber upside.

This week’s most important data is German ZEW economic sentiment on Tuesday. From technical perspective we see two important points. X crosses ™ of 61.8 and 23.6. If the price breaks 1.1215 it might break the series of lower highs (purple rectangles) and proceed towards 1.1245 and 1.1280. However after  price broke below 1.1145 it should aim for 1.1100 and 1.1060. I am a bit more bearish on the pair but in the absence of clear POC zones for positional trades, we might trade to watch for breakout setups.

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets.