Gold 4H Retracement Stops at Weekly H4 Camarilla Pivot

The Gold has been on the counter-trend move since it reached the M L5 level (Monthly Strong Support. The retracement is easily spotted in the 4h time frame. At this point, we can see that the W H4 stopped the retracement in its tracks and 1268.80-1270.50 could reject the price towards 1261.85. – W L3 pivot. Only if the price breaks below the W L3/trend line confluence we might see 1257 and 1252.60. If the price closes above the projected ATR high at 1273.14, we might see another bullish move towards 1280.60.

W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

M H4 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Monthly Resistance)

M L3 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Monthly Support)

M L4 – Monthly H4 Camarilla (Monthly Strong Daily Support)

POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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Gold 4H Retracement Stops at Weekly H4 Camarilla Pivot
Gold 4H Retracement Stops at Weekly H4 Camarilla Pivot

EUR/USD Bullish SHS Pattern Close to D L3 Camarilla Pivot

As I showed yesterday in my Session Recap webinar, the EUR/USD made the retracement to 1.1770 zones and rejected as planned. We can see a Bullish SHS pattern (inverted Head and Shoulders) formed slightly above the D L3 Camarilla pivot. That implies a potential continuation of a bullish setup towards 1.1834 and 1.1878. However, a clear h1 or h4 close above 1.1825 is needed for the price to proceed further up. In case of retracement, pay attention to 1.1760-75 zone again ( right shoulder, 78.6, atr pivot, D L3) and a possible rejection again. As long as the price is held above the W L3 – 1.1714 the EUR/USD is bullish.

  • W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
  • D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
  • D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
  • D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
  • POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
EUR/USD Bullish SHS Pattern Close to D L3 Camarilla Pivot
EUR/USD Bullish SHS Pattern Close to D L3 Camarilla Pivot

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GBP/USD is Bearish Below W H4 Camarilla Pivot

The GBP/USD has been sold on rallies recently as the Brexit talks continue to weight on the pound. Technically the pair is very close to the POC. 1.3365-89 is the POC zone ( W H3, EMA89, order block, 61.8 and ideally the pair should stay below the W H4 – 1.3409 to remain bearish. However, it is Monday and we might see some up-and-down price action until the price settles down a bit. Targets are 1.3303 and if we see a clear break below, then 1.3273 and 1.3247 could be next.

GBP/USD 1H Chart
GBP/USD 1H Chart
  • W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
  • D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
  • D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
  • D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
  • POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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WTI is Bullish but Watch for Crude Oil Inventories Data

Earlier this week, Oil prices rose as U.S. crude stockpiles showed a drawdown larger-than-expected late last week. In addition, Britain’s largest pipeline from its oil and gas fields in the North Sea had an unexpected shutdown for several weeks due to cracks appearing. This pipeline carries about 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Forties crude and causing supply constraints as the pipeline is the largest out of the five crude oil streams that underpin the Brent benchmark.

However, Oil prices fell again overnight most likely due to technical resistance at USD58.60 bbl. Even despite the massive Crude Oil Inventories drawdown last week, production from Crude Oil in the United States has steadily grown from 8.946 million bpd per week starting January this year and reaching an average of 9.707 million bpd for the week ending December 1.

WTI Crude Oil 1H Chart
WTI Crude Oil 1H Chart

All eyes will be on Crude Oil Inventories data from the USA later today. Technically the WTI is bullish and we see 2 POC zones where it could bounce. 57.80-58.00 is the first POC zone while 57.30-40 is the POC2. Additionally, we see an inverted SHS pattern that is bullish. However, if the results come worse than expected, the WTI might drop below 56.65 aiming for 55.85.

  • H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
  • W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
  • D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
  • D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
  • D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
  • POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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GOLD Retest of Cont. SHS Bearish Pattern is Possible

Gold might be going through a revaluation phase, where Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are now rivaling it as the preferred risk-off asset or when such inflation risks persist. This crypto hype has potentially weakened some demand for Gold. Furthermore, there is the possibility that the US Fed may hike rates three times over the next 12 months, and this shifts further investments from Gold into Bonds.

GOLD Retest of Cont. SHS Bearish Pattern is Possible
GOLD Retest of Cont. SHS Bearish Pattern is Possible

Technically Gold is showing Bearish SHS continuation pattern (Head and Shoulders at support) and the price might retest a neckline that is a part of POC zone. The POC 1271-1274.50 (Bearish SHS neckline, order block, EMA89, D H4, 78.6) could potentially reject the price towards 1264.23 , 1261.28 and 1256.87. Break of 1281.80 and 4h close above it, will possibly negate bearish scenario.

EUR/USD Continuation of the Rooftop Pattern Below 1.1800

The EUR/USD has formed a huge bearish rooftop pattern with a clear support within .1810-00 zone. 1.1865-85 is the POC zone where now moment sellers might be waiting for. Month-end demand can usually be volatile and EUR/USD seem to be offered withing the POC zone. Break below 1.1800 and the pair could target 1.1775 and 1.1750. For counter trend trades watch for reversal patterns and/or regular bullish divergence only IF 1.1800 zone holds.

EUR/USD Continuation of the Rooftop Pattern Below 1.1800
EUR/USD Continuation of the Rooftop Pattern Below 1.1800

W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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GBP/JPY Diving Board Reversal Pattern Targeting D H4 and W L5 Camarilla Levels

The GBP/JPY has formed a variation of a V-shaped pattern named “Diving Board”. The diving board is a reversal pattern that forms after the price makes a flat base than drops down with a high momentum that is followed by a straight-line run-up. V-shaped reversal is created, and the price proceeds up. At this point, we can see two POC zones. The first POC is 149.00-149.10 (D H3, W H3, Order block). Because of the strong trend that we can spot, the first POC zone could show a rejection if the price retraces. If we see a broader retracement below POC1 than pay attention to POC2 (50.0, EMA89, W L3) 148.35-148.66. Rejections from any of POC zones should target 149.90 and 150.47.

GBP/JPY Diving Board Reversal Pattern Targeting D H4 and W L5 Camarilla Levels
GBP/JPY Diving Board Reversal Pattern Targeting D H4 and W L5 Camarilla Levels
  • W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)
  • W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
  • W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
  • D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
  • D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
  • D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
  • POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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WTI Rooftop Pattern Continuation if D L3 Breaks

The WTI, went as planned as we could have seen in my previous analysis. Today we can see a rooftop pattern shaping up that is coming from W H1/ D H5 confluence, and it is being held slightly above D L3 camarilla pivot. We can see the rooftop shape an need to be ready if breakout happens. For positional trades watch for POC zone 57.60-57.85 where the price could reject after a retracement. Breakout below D L3 and 4h close below 57.24 should make a continuation move towards 56.78 (ATR projection low) and 56.21 D L5 level.

W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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WTI Crude Oil W H4 Resistance Consolidation

The WTI has been trying to break the W H4 resistance but the price lacks momentum and we can spot a consolidation exactly at W H4 camarilla pivot. If the resistance holds, we might see a retracement towards the POC zone 56.86-59.10 ( D H3, inner trend line, EMA89, D H1, 38.2) and now moment buyers might spike the price again towards the W H4. However the break of 57.90 could spur another momentum buying towards 59.01. So it comes to “make it or break it” scenario. The price is bullish, the WTI is topping out, and buyers are still holding the upper hand.

WTI W H4 Resistance Consolidation
WTI W H4 Resistance Consolidation
  • W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
  • D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
  • D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
  • D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
  • POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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XAU/USD Analysis: Bearish SHS Pattern in Progress

Gold spot – XAU/USD is currently forming a bearish SHS pattern (head and shoulders) while still capped below the descending trendline. At this time we need to see if the retracement will reach the POC zone. The POC zone 1286.55-1289.58 (W L3, ATR pivot, historical double top/sellers) if reached could reject the price towards 1279 and below 1274.10 X cross (ATR + trendline) we could see a continuation towards 1266.53. Currently, the price is consolidating and we could see a movement soon.

XAU/USD Analysis
XAU/USD Analysis
  • W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
  • D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
  • D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
  • D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
  • POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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GBP/USD Progressive Trend Towards 1.3310

The GBP/USD has been making a progressive trend move towards 1.3310. However, there is still resistance out there that needs to be taken away. The pair has formed W bullish pattern and the POC zone is wider today due to Friday’s price action and confluence tools. 1.3195-1.3225 is the POC zone (W, Order block, ATR pivot, D L3, trend line, EMA89) and we might see another spike towards 1.3260 zones. However H1 momentum or 4h close above W H3/D H4 1.3272 is needed for a further push towards 1.3310 and 1.3327 eventually. A move below 1.3150 will put a pair in neutral territory again.

GBP/USD 1H Chart
GBP/USD 1H Chart
  • W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
  • W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
  • D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
  • D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
  • D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
  • POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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AUD/JPY Bearish Zig Zag Pattern Aiming for 85.35 if 86.25 holds

The AUD/JPY is following a bearish zigzag pattern that could reach D camarilla support levels as I showed during my Real-Time Daily Trading Ideas Live Webinar today. The AUD/JPY could reject from the POC zone 85.90-95 (50.0, W L5, EMA89, D H3) and as long as 85.18-25 holds we might see a drop towards 85.50 and 85.35. Only if we see a 4h or 1h momentum close below 85.35 the pair might target 85.05 and 84.56. Have in mind that the AUD/JPY is a bi slow moving pair so it might take some time to get to its final target. At this point the focus is on the POC zone.

AUD/JPY Bearish Zig Zag Pattern Aiming for 85.35 if 86.25 holds

W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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GBP/JPY Dropping Below the Trend Line

The GBP/JPY rally and profit taking on short trades that happened on Friday has been negated by an early Monday drop and sell off. Brexit concerns are still weighing on the pound and investors tend to flee in the JPY safe haven. The GBP/JPY, popular “Dragon” dropped below the trend line and a subsequent retest of the POC zone might spur another selloff. 149.10-149.40 is the POC zone (D L4/L4, EMA89, 61.8 fib, trend line X cross). Rejection targets 148.55 and a strong h1 breakout or 4h below the 148.40 might target 148.00 and 147.83.

GBP/JPY 1H Chart
GBP/JPY 1H Chart
  • W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)
  • W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
  • W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
  • D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
  • D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
  • D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
  • POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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EUR/JPY Consolidation Breakout Possible

Different Forex crosses are breaking out of their consolidation phase, making breakouts off the important levels as we could see yesterday in the example of the GBP/NZD. Today we have a consolidation with a possible breakout on EUR/JPY. The POC zone 132.12-132.30 (D H3, EMA89, 38.2,are pivot) could reject the price towards 131.90. Break below 131.90 might target 131.75 and 131.30. The current ATR is 37 pips while the projected ATR is 86 pips so the price still has the room to next support levels.

EUR/JPY 1H Chart
EUR/JPY 1H Chart
  • W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)
  • W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
  • W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
  • D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
  • D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
  • D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
  • POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
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GBP/NZD Cup With Candle Pattern on H1 Chart

The GBP/NZD is consolidating within the cup with handle pattern and we might see a breakout as there is also a trend line confluence. If the price spikes above the trend line/ EMA89 /D H4 / ATR pivot -1.9035 and/or we see a 4h close above the level the price might continue its move towards 1.9095 and 1.9145. Below 1.8970 (D H1, atr pivot, trend line) we might see 1.8920, 1.8886 and 1.8825. Watch for camarilla levels and have in mind that this pair – the GBP/NZD (also known as “The Beast”) is very volatile so once you are in profit, you should protect it by using profit stops.

GBP/NZD 1H Chart
GBP/NZD 1H Chart
  • W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)
  • W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
  • W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
  • D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
  • D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
  • D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
  • POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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USD/CAD is Waiting for Fundamental Data Release

The USD/CAD has formed a double top pattern exactly at D H3 pivot. At this point, we see a retracement that shows another proof how strong camarilla pivot points are. From a fundamental point of view the market might be waiting for ADP data today as well as CAD Employment change and trade balance. We should see a bit of volatility during the NY/LO Session overlap. From a technical point, we see the two POC zones. The first POC 1.2840-55 (order block, EMA89, D L4, 23.6) or the second POC zone 1..2800-15 (inner TL, D L5, 38.2, order block) might reject the price towards 1.2915, 1.2940 and 1.2982 on good ADP / bad CAD data. However if the price drops due to bad USD / good CAD data breakout below 1.2798 should target 1.2774, 1.2740 and 1.2726. Mixed data should keep the price action within the technical outlook.

USD/CAD 1H Chart
USD/CAD 1H Chart
  • W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)
  • W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
  • W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
  • D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
  • D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
  • D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
  • POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

EUR/GBP Lower High – Lower Low Swings Show a Potential Breakout

The EUR/GBP has been in a zig-zag mode, making lower highs and lower lows that qualify for a downtrend. D L3 camarilla pivot has established a support but still, the breakout is possible. In the case of breakout below the D L3 support, a break below 0.8805 potentially targets 0.8785, 0.8764 and 0.8750. A retracement to the upside could bring the pair to POC zone (D H4, EMA89, 50.0,ATR high, historical sellers) 0.8835-50. The rejection from the zone could target 0.8805 and below (see the levels) towards 0.8750 as the final target.

EUR/GBP 1H Chart
EUR/GBP 1H Chart
  • W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
  • W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
  • D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
  • D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
  • D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
  • POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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Gold Bearish Zig Zag Confluence at 61.8 and 78.6 Fib

Gold is in a steady downtrend. Better than expected advance GDP in the US continues to weight on Gold. My conclusion is that the USD gains and risk appetite continue to limit the upside for Gold. However, we might see a retracement from L3 towards POC1 and POC2. The POC1 (D cm, W H1, EMA89, 61.8, trend line, atr pivot) 1273.20-1275.35 could turn the price down to 1268.18 and 1262.69. A deeper retracement might also target POC2 1278.50 zone-1280.00 (D H3, WH3, atr pivot) and the rejection should target same levels as I mentioned above. 1h momentum or 4h candle close below 1262.69 might target 1254.73.

Gold 1H Chart
Gold 1H Chart
  • W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)
  • W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
  • W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
  • D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
  • D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
  • D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
  • POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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AUD/JPY Drops on Worse Than Expected CPI

The Australian CPI rose 1.8 percent for the year which was lower than 2 percent expectation. The data hurt the AUD and it made a direct drop to W L4 with an extension to 87.78. At this point shorting on rallies is the option. Short term scalps could come around 88.08 while positional short trades could come at the POC zone 88.25-40 (D L4/L5, W L3, Order block, EMA89, trend line, ATR pivot, 50.0 Fib). There is a lot of confluence at the POC so a rejection should target 88.05, 87.80 and 87.50 that is W L5 camarilla pivot.

AUD/JPY 1H Chart
AUD/JPY 1H Chart
  • W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)
  • W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
  • W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
  • D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
  • D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
  • D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
  • POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

USD/CAD is Riding Momentum From Higher Time Frames

The USD/CAD both daily and 4h time frames are in an uptrend and at this point, we can also see a bullish swing has formed on H1 time frame too. The MACD is strongly positive and price action has formed two POC zones. POC 1.2590-1.2605 ( ATR pivot, order block,38.2 D L3) and POC2 1.2540-60 (D L4,EMA89, 61.8,ATR low). Any of these zones might potentially spike the price to the upside in case of retracement. If we don’t see a retracement watch for continuation above 1.2645. Targets are 1.2670, 1.2687 and 1.2724. Only the break of W L4 -1.2527 could change the bias to bearish targeting 1.2495 and 1.2440.

USD/CAD 1H Chart
USD/CAD 1H Chart
  • W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)
  • W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
  • W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
  • D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
  • D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
  • D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
  • POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

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