AUD/NZD Golden Ratio Supports The Pair

As markets reacted negatively to the RBA statement this month, the AUD may be experiencing temporary weakness. Data on the AIG Manufacturing Index and commodity prices was positive to the AUD earlier this week, whilst there is a lack of data this week on the NZD, which may limit its strength. At this point the pair is supported by 61.8, D L5, W L3 and rising trend line which might spike the price to the upside. The POC zone for long trades is 1.0430-45 and as long as it stays above 1.0375 upside is possible. Targets are 1.0485, 1.0510 and 1.0550.

AUDNZD Golden Ratio Supports The Pair
AUDNZD Golden Ratio Supports The Pair

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

EUR/USD Bullish Breakout Suggests a Possible Continuation

The EUR/USD has made 3 consecutive bullish candles on daily(see the mini chart on the main chart) and the first candle from those 3 is a bullish marubozu that usually suggests a continuation. We see that the continuation has already happened but the W H3 hasn’t been reached so we might see a pullback before the next leg up. We have 2 POC zones where the price could possibly reject. POC 1.3370-84 (D L4, 38.2, EMA89, ATR pivot) marks the important L4 camarilla support zone while POC2 1.1350-65 ( 61.8, ATR Low, D L5 historical buyers) marks the final support zone before we see a deeper retracement towards W L4 camarilla that might slow the uptrend continuation. If the price rejects from any POC watch for 1.1445 and 1.1500.

EUR/USD 1H Chart
EUR/USD 1H Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

USD/JPY Zig-Zag Uptrend But Watch for D H4 Resistance

The USD/JPY has been moving in a zig-zag pattern that indicates uptrend but at this point its close to ATR top/D H4 resistance. We can also see a bearish divergence so we might expect some pullback. The POC zone is 112.00-15 (38.2, D L4, EMA89, ATR pivot). If the price gets there we might see a bounce towards D H5 112.90. However if the price gets to ATR top/ D H5 we might see a rejection towards 112.20-00 again. So watch for both zones in terms of trading as the price might reject from both POC and D H5/ ATR top confluence.

USD/JPY 1H Chart
USD/JPY 1H Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

AUD/NZD is Supported at 1.0360

Today we witnessed a slowing growth in the NZ Trade Balance, which fell below forecasts. It has followed a string of positive data from NZ, but as we saw last week, in my opinion. there was a slightly dovish stance from the RBNZ. Despite this, the NZD has made gains against the AUD for the past 3 months, particularly as Iron Ore, Gold and LNG prices have been retreating, thus being negative for the AUD. We are very close to the Daily long term trend line since April 2015, and we might see supports around 1.036.

That being said, the POC zone (D L4, ATR low, trend line, historical buyers) comes within 1.0360-75 and a retrace within the zone should spike the price up. Important level to watch is also 1.0394 and X cross of trend line and D H3. A continuation and daily close above 1.0433 will possibly prolong an uptrend move in the pair targeting 1.0475 and 1.0525. A daily close below 1.0350 could negate this scenario.

AUD/NZD 1H Chart
AUD/NZD 1H Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

EUR/JPY Flat Top Ascending Triangle Formation

The EUR/JPY has formed a flat top ascending triangle formation on H1 time frame, which suggests a possible continuation of bullish trend. Each triangle is a form of consolidation before the breakout, while the ascending triangle is a sign of uptrend. At this point we can see that the double top has been broken so we have 2 possible rejection points. First one is DT retest point 124.65. If the price retraces to the level we might see another bounce towards W H4/D H5 confluence 125.23. The break of 125.23 aims for 125.60. If the price make a pullback inside a triangle formation again than we might see a POC rejection 124.30-40 ( W L3, EMA89, ATR Pivot, D L3) towards above mentioned levels.

EUR/JPY 1H Chart
EUR/JPY 1H Chart

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EUR/GBP Positive Momentum Above 0.8833

The EUR/GBP has recently made a u-turn after the V shaped reversal formed and pushed the price from the D L4 support. At this point the POC zone is 0.8790-0.8805 (D L3, EMA89, ATR pivot, 50.0, W H3, historical buyers) and if the price gets into the zone again, we might see another push to the upside targeting 0.8833. If the price manages to stay above the inner trend line at 0.8820, I expect D H3 retest -0.8833 and hourly close above D H3 should give another positive impulse to the pair that with targets at 0.8853 and 0.8885.

EUR/GBP 1H Chart
EUR/GBP 1H Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

EUR/USD Still Kept in a Very Tight Range

The EUR/USD has been acting exactly as we planned it and traded it on Weekly Recap webinar. The situation hasn’t changed a lot. In the top left corner you can see the ATR of the pair that is 60 pips(!). That indicates a slow moving low volatile price. On top of that, the pair is moving in a well defined, two-way range. We always need to adapt to current market conditions, so we have 4 possible zones. Two for buying and two for selling. 1.1185-90 POC (b) ( double bottom, historical buyers, YL, D L4, ATR pivot) is the first zone where now moment buyers might wait and push the price up. Deeper retracement to the downside suggests POC2 (b) 1.1160-70 ( W L3, ATR low, WL, D L5, historical buyers). Sellers reside at the first POC (s) 1.1230-40 (D H4, YH, ATR high, W H3, historical sellers). If the price proceeds above 1.1240, we might be looking for POC2 (s) 1.1255-65 (W H4, ATR top, historical sellers).

EUR/USD 1H Chart
EUR/USD 1H Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

GBP/USD Possible Breakaway Gap

The GBP/USD had sharply fell when its was announced that UK Prime Minister May’s gambit didn’t go as planned. The result of UK Snap election created a sell-off in the GBP and at this point we can see that GBP is sold on rallies. The current price structure along with the camarilla pivots tell me that this could be a breakaway gap. The breakaway gap indicates that a new trend is about to develop after the gap has formed outside of the previous range. Also the gap is similar to a runaway gap, where the price fails to close the gap and it just proceeds with momentum.

The gap has been formed around W H3/ M H3 pivot extending to W L3 support. The POC zone is 1.2765-85 (38.2, double top, historical sellers) and on rallies the price could drop from the zone too. First target is 1.2715 and if momentum persists we could see 1.2634. Have in mind that breakaway gap is tricky and that we might not even see the close of the gap before W H3 -1.2820 is again broken to the upside.

GBP/USD 4H Chart
GBP/USD 4H Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

AUD/USD Slow Zig-Zag Towards 0.7580

As we could see on yesterday’s Live Trading webinar, straight after our live trading session, the AUD/USD has rejected and made pips in the bearish direction. That was a counter trade opportunity we had, but today the AUD/USD might proceed with the trend. The POC zone is 0.7510-20 (D L4, ATR pivot, bullish order block, EMA89) and if we see a retracement, the pair might reject from the POC zone targeting H3 and H4 camarilla pivots. 1 hour candle close above 1.7568 might target 1.7586 and further 0.7617 on a stronger momentum push. Have in mind that the ATR (range) of the pair is small, only 57 pips so 0.7580 zone is looking more realistic should the bullish momentum prevail.

AUD/USD 1H Chart
AUD/USD 1H Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

EUR/USD Flat Top Ascending Triangle Consolidation

The EUR/USD has been one of the slowest moving pairs recently. The ATR of 69 for the last 14 days suggests easy going price where investors and traders might possibly waiting for the breakout. Previous bullish SHS pattern (inverted head and shoulders) made the pair spike to 1.1284 where it formed a flat top ascending triangle. By it’s standard definition, the triangle s bullish and bulls could go for a triangle breakout if it happens. The breakout of 1.1290 should target 1.1320-30 zone (D H5/W H3) and eventually on a 4h close above 1.1320 the target is 1.1375. Because the EUR/USD is kept in a consolidation mode inside a bullish triangle a break below 1.1225 would possibly negate a bullish scenario.

EUR/USD 1H Chart
EUR/USD 1H Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

USD/CAD Possible Retest of W H4/D H5 Zone

As doubts grow of over-supply in the Oil market, its price continues to drift lower, putting pressure on the CAD, I expect this weakness of the CAD to be more prevalent than the USD weakness of recent. At this point we can see a slow bullish grind on intra day time frame towards W H4/D H5 confluence zone 1.3540-50. The POC zone (trend line, 50.0, D L3, Atr pivot, historical buyers) might spike the price up towards 1.3500, 1.3520 and if 1.3520 breaks towards 1.3550. The price is above W L3 and D L3 so the bulls are currently in control. The price should ideally stay above 1.3422 for bullish outcome.

USD/CAD 1H Chart
USD/CAD 1H Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

GBP/USD Higher Highs And Higher Lows For Uptrend Continuation

The GBP/USD is in a strong uptrend, that was marked by breaking out from 1.3000 psychological level. After big round number break, it is normal that we see a retracement. Currently we have 2 POC and the retracement could happen towards either of POCs after which we could see another push to the upside targeting 1.3070 and 1.3120. Additionally, bullish order blocks are slightly above the first POC zone so we could see some buying directly from 1.2980.

GBP/USD 4H Chart
GBP/USD 4H Chart

First POC 1.2950-64 (W L3, 50.0,ATR pivot) could spike the price if W L3 camarilla level holds. If it breaks we should see a deeper retracement towards 1.2920-35 (W L4, trend line confluence, 78.6). Both POCs (Point Of Confluence aka Entry Zone), could provide buying opportunities and could spike the price higher.

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

EUR/USD Up As Expected

The EUR/USD expectedly spiked from Friday, making another push to the upside. For all of you who follow me and my analysis, you know that Id short only below 1.0820. We have been having buying the dip scenario since the retail gap has been formed. 1.0880-1.0900 (W L3, ATR low, EMA89) is the POC for long trades. The interim resistance is 1.0950 and if it gets broken, the EUR/USD should target 1.1000. Finally, if the price breaks and closes above 1.1000 we will see a failed head and shoulders pattern and EUR/USD could spike to 1.1110.

Only if the price drops below 1.0819 we could see a momentum towards the retail gap close at 1.0730.

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

GBP/JPY Pullback is Possible

The expected win of newly elected French president Macron could have already been priced in the markets. The rally that GBP/JPY has made is very strong so we might expect a pullback on this pair. The zone where we might see a reaction is 145.40-60 (trend line, EMA 89, D L4, ATR low) and if the pair gets in the zone we might see another spike towards 146.50 and 147.20.

In order for intra week uptrend to continue, bulls should protect the zone. But if the steam has already been lost, traders need to pay attention to 144.80, strong support. If 144.80 breaks to the downside 143.10 should be next.

GBP/JPY Chart
GBP/JPY Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

GBP/USD Proceeding With Uptrend

In the midst of a bank holiday, we see that GBP/USD is moving in a steady uptrend trying to reach 1.2945 resistance. US data for the previous week’s was mixed while GBP is stronger due to unexpected snap elections call, which should bring stability in the UK.

Technically the GBP/USD is going for 1.2945. Watch for a retracement within the POC 1.2850 – 75 (W L3, ATR low) that could reject the pair towards 1.2945. W L4/ Inner trend line X cross mark 1.2828 as important weekly support. If the pair gets makes a 4h close above 1.2945 next target should be 1.3040.

GBP/USD Daily Chart
GBP/USD Daily Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

EUR/USD Gapped Higher After Macron Won

The EUR/USD gapped 200 pips on news that Macron won the first round of French elections. Markets generally went positive where CAC40 clearly made a runaway gap. The EUR/USD POC (double top/bullish order block, 50.0, D L3) 1.0778-0792 could spike the price if we see a retracement before the retail gap closes. 1.0730 is needed for a retail gap to close.

As all weekly camarilla levels have been broken to the upside and new weekly levels will be calculated soon, a 4h close above 1.0865 (without any retracement to POC or gap close) could be a signal for a runaway gap, where EUR/USD could make 1.0905 followed by 1.0920 short term.

EUR/USD Chart
EUR/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

EUR/USD Narrow Range After Bank Holidays

The EUR/USD has been trapped in a narrow range between 2 POC zones that mark possible buying and selling. The zone has been formed after the low volatility bank holidays on Friday and Monday so now, the pair is in no man’s land.

POC where EUR/USD might reject comes within 1.0540-60 (W L3, historical buyers and bullish divergence) while POC for fresh sellers comes within 1.0690-1.0715 (W H5, ATR high, historical sellers). Small colored lines (green highlight) mark ATR projection pivot points. Rejection from upper POC should target 1.0645 (W H4 and ATR Pivot confluence) and 1.0600 (ATR low) while rejection from lower POC targets same levels 1.0600 and 1.0645.

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

GBP/USD Inner Trend Line is Broken

The GBP/USD has failed to make a higher high last week and was rejected from 1.2500, breaking an upward trend line. A trend line that had been broken became an inner trend line and it’s a part of the confluence. At this point we can see POC zone within 1.2420-40 (inner trend line, bearish order block, 38.2, EMA89) Successful rejection from POC targets 1.2365 followed by 1.2323 and 1.2270, the confluence between monthly and weekly camarilla support. For bears to dominate the price should be ideally below 1.2480. However, if the price breaks 1.2480 which is weekly H4 breakout camarilla level, 1.2567 could be target for the bullish breakout.

GBP/USD Chart
GBP/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

USD/JPY at Crossroads

As presumed, after the initial drop the USD/JPY has been bought on dips.  The USD weakness might still show short term, and is a result of the Fed’s recent dovish stance. However, we must not forget, the US is one of the few major developed economies in a rate tightening environment, and the USD strength should return and this is retracement on higher timeframes. POC for short trades is 111.70-111.95 (W H3, M, L3, EMA 89, ATR Pivot, Bearish order block). Target is 110.80. However the break of 112.50 to the upside will push the pair higher to 113.70 Weekly H5/Monthly H3 confluence .

USD/JPY Chart
USD/JPY Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

EUR/USD On Its Way Higher

After comments from Deutsche Bundesbank’s (German Federal Bank ) director Joachim Wuermeling that ECB might hike soon and the USD dropping because Trump lost his healthcare vote on Friday, the EUR/USD spiked during a weekend making a retail gap.

The gap is making a confluence with 50.0 fib, bullish order block and W H3 camarilla (weekly camarilla pivot). The 1.0815-25 zone could be good for buying should the price retrace to the zone. Strong momentum and/or H4 close above 1.0870 targets 1.0900 and 1.0920. Yellow marker on the chart highlights another POC zone (EMA89,61.8, ATR low) that could spike the price up should the price retrace deeper. EUR/USD is currently buy on dips so traders should focus on it.

EUR/USD Chart
EUR/USD Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets