Forex Daily Recap – USD/CAD Slipped as Loonie Rose over Upbeat Data

USD/CAD

The Loonie pair was underway strong downtrend on Friday. Quite remarkably, the pair broke two significant support handles stalled near 1.3196 and 1.3185 levels. Even the Ichimoku Clouds continued to hover above the USD/CAD pair, cheering the bears.

USDCAD 240 Min 06 September 2019
USDCAD 240 Min 06 September 2019

Today’s strong negative trend came following an abrupt rise in the Canadian currency value. Notably, the Canadian Jobs data reported upbeat data, pleasing the CAD traders. However, as per the law, with a rise in the CAD, the overall USD/CAD pair underwent sharp plunges. The August Net Change in Employment reported a whopping 81.1K over the 15.0K consensus estimate. Meantime, the Unemployment rate continued to stay near 5.7% in-line with the previous as well as forecast. Other noteworthy data releases that caught market attention were the August Participation rate, YoY Average Hourly Wages, and Ivey PMI data release.

Traders must also focus over the Stochastic Oscillator that has almost reached near 0.0 mark, revealing massive selling or oversold condition.

On the contrary, if the pair had moved to the upper side, then that would have triggered the resistance points stemmed near 1.3247 and 1.3337 levels.

EUR/USD

The Fiber attempted to jump in the earlier hours. Anyhow, the underlying 50-day SMA ensured to limit the pair’s daily losses. As the day was approaching closing, the EUR/USD pair had hardly moved away from the opening mark. Meanwhile, the ability to move to the north-side would have opened fresh challenge over the 1.1052 resistance handle. Even if the pair had moved above the aforementioned resistance, then the pair would have encountered another set of resistance cluster. This cluster comprised of a major overhead counter-trendline and significant SMAs.

EURUSD 240 Min 06 September 2019
EURUSD 240 Min 06 September 2019

Somehow, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continued to stay flat near 50 level, showing a lack of interest among the market participants.

Noticeably, the highly critical Eurozone Q2 GDP figure remained in-line with 0.2% market expectations. Also, the Eurozone Q2 YoY Employment Change came out 1.2%, 0.1% higher than the estimate, and 0.2% lower than the previous 1.4%.

USD Index

After hitting the upper boundary of the Bollinger bands on Sept 3, the US Dollar Index took a rebound price action to the south side. Even today, the Greenback was underway the same tumbling rally. However, the USD Index bears seemed to halt near the center line without moving into the lower region of the Bollinger Bands. Nevertheless, any movement of that kind would have triggered for a strong downtrend, shedding most of the previously attained gains.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 06 September 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 06 September 2019

On the economic event side, the August YoY Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.1% above the 3.1% market hopes. Somehow, the market seemed to ignore this upbeat data and focus over the downbeat August Non-Farm Payrolls. Notably, the Payrolls came out 130K, below the 158K market estimate. Interim, the Unemployment Rate remained in-line with the previous 3.7% statistics.

USD/JPY

After testing the overhead 50-day SMA last day, the Ninja took a U-turn to the downside.

USDJPY 1 Day 06 September 2019
USDJPY 1 Day 06 September 2019

Even if the pair had breached above the aforementioned handle, then that would have activated the overhead 100-day and 200-day SMA. Earlier the day, the Japanese July Leading Economic Index reported 93.6 points the same as the last recorded data.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Bears Taking the Helm Ahead of Canadian Jobs Data

Notably, the Loonie pair made the opening near 1.3230 level on Friday after touching the 1.3240 handle last day. The USD/CAD pair continued to travel down the chart.

Meantime, Crude prices edged higher today over hopes for an end to the US-China trade dispute. Yesterday, both parties decided to arrange high-level talks in early October in Washington, cheering the investors. Quite noticeably, the Crude Oil WTI Futures were trading near $56.26 per barrel in the Asian trading session.

“Upside potential for crude oil futures will remain limited, however, as strong U.S. production and demand-side concerns cap bullish gains for the current term,” said Benjamin Lu, commodities analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

Significant Economic Events

US and Canadian economic docket appears wholly filled with crucial economic data releases.

On the USD-side, the market would witness the August Non-Farm Payrolls and YoY Average Hourly Earnings. The Street analysts expect both the data to shrink this time.

Post-North American opening, the significant CAD-specific events would come out, showcasing the August Jobs data. This time, the consensus estimate the net change in the Employment figure to grow, reaching 15.0K. Somehow, the market estimate the Unemployment rate to remain in-line with the prior 5.7%.

Notably, Fed’s Chair Powell’s speech at around 16:30 GMT would be another point of interest for the market participants.

Technical Analysis

1-Week Chart

After marking the weekly opening near 1.3314 level, the USD/CAD had almost reached 1.3216 level on Friday. Hence, the Loonie pair might close the week on a negative note today, heading into the underlying Ichimoku Clouds.

USDCAD 1 Week 06 September 2019
USDCAD 1 Week 06 September 2019

Meantime, the Parabolic SAR continued to stay below the pair, providing a contradictory prospect to the on-going downfall. Therefore, the position of the pair almost above the Ichimoku Clouds remain as the only hope for upward rebound price actions. Ability to perform a small drift to the upper side might trigger some fresh bullish price movements.

1-Day Chart

Needless to say, the 50-day SMA had moved to the bottom in late-July, crossing below the other significant SMAs. With such an action, the 50-day SMA was forming a Death-cross.

USDCAD 1 Day 06 September 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 06 September 2019

Anyhow, currently, the same SMA remains stemmed below the pair, acting as a firm support handle near 1.3187 level. On a closer watch, the Stochastic Oscillator was appealing for an oversold condition, considering the significant aerial SMAs. Therefore, on heading to the downside, the USD/CAD might take intermediate halts near 1.3187 and 1.3018 support levels. Nevertheless, any attempt to drive to the upside might get capped near 1.3300 psychological level where the SMAs remain stalled.

Forex Daily Recap – US Dollar Index Slightly Up Amid Mixed Data

US Dollar Index

The Greenback was trading almost near its opening level in the North American session. Today, the bulls remained in a constant tug-of-war with the bears amid mixed US economic data releases. Anyhow, the highly critical August ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI reported 56.4 points, a solid 4.44% higher than the 54.0 points estimate. Also, the ADP Employment Change rose 53K this time over the previous 142K statistics. Even the Q2 Unit Labor Costs, Non-Farm Productivity, and July MoM Factory Orders recorded upbeat data, pleasing the bulls.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 05 September 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 05 September 2019

On the other side of the equation, the downbeat Jobless data, Markit Services PMI, Markit PMI Composite ensured to entertain the bears.

On the technical side, the US Dollar Index continued to hover well above the green Ichimoku Clouds, strengthening the long term bulls. Today, the Greenback had moved above the base line. Nevertheless, the bulls were struggling to get away from the conversion line in order to confirm a positive trend.

AUD/USD

Despite an adverse July Trade Balance data release, the Aussie pair bulls continued upliftment for the third day in a row. Notably, Australian July Import data stood near 3.0% while the Export data reported hardly 1.0%. In that way, the Trade Balance came out near 7,268 million over the market hopes of around 7,400 million. Somehow, the daily gains of the pair got capped near the sturdy 0.6818 resistance handle.

AUDUSD 1 Day 05 September 2019
AUDUSD 1 Day 05 September 2019

Suppose if the pair bulls had marched triumphantly above the aforementioned resistance mark, then that would have activated the overhead SMA conflux. Meantime, the Stochastic Oscillator has knocked the over-bought level, looking for a rebound price action in the near term.

USD/CHF

The Swiss Franc pair was forming a rising wedge bearish pattern since mid-August. Today, the USD/CHF pair was moving upwards in order to justify the rising wedge. Quite remarkably, the pair was trading well above all the significant SMAs, supporting the bulls. On further upward drift, the pair would have tested the sound 0.9873 resistance level.

USDCHF 240 Min 05 September 2019
USDCHF 240 Min 05 September 2019

On the fundamental side, the Switzerland Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data release was something quite crucial for the pair. Unfortunately, the Q2 YoY GDP came out 0.2%, 0.7% lower than the consensus estimate of 0.9%. Although the Q2 MoM GDP recorded upbeat data, the market appeared to ignore it and focus on the YoY data.

EUR/USD

After reaching the 1.6070 mark last day, the Fiber had tested the overhead red Ichimoku Clouds. Anyhow, the EUR/USD pair had failed to make a triumphant march and rebounded to the downside. Today, the pair kept the downtrend intact and was heading southwards. It seemed like the overbought Stochastic Oscillator was playing its role in shedding the accumulated gains of the pair.

EURUSD 240 Min 05 September 2019
EURUSD 240 Min 05 September 2019

Earlier today, the German July MoM Factory Orders recorded lower than the market expectations. This Orders data came near -2.7% in comparison to the consensus estimate of -1.5%.

In the interim, the EUR/USD pair stood above the base line and the conversion line, developing a bearish sentiment. If the pair had moved further upside then, that would have opened fresh challenges on the overhead 100-day and 200-day SMAs.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Bears Penetrating into the Red Ichimoku Clouds

After touching the 1.3382 pinnacle handle on Sept 3, the pair took a U-turn, rebounding to the downside. Though there was a slight intermediate pause last day, portraying a consolidated phase, the bears resumed the negative price actions. Today, the Loonie pair marked the opening near 1.3226 level and kept the downtrend intact.

Meanwhile, the Crude prices fell on Thursday, shedding some previously accumulated gains. The commodity prices dropped following latest API reports, revealing buildup of inventories.

“Oil bulls can’t seemingly catch a break after the rally sapping surprising build in the American Petroleum Institute oil inventory survey has throttled WTI upward momentum dead in its tracks,” said Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific market strategist at AxiTrader.

Significant Economic Events

The US economic docket appears over-filled with critical data releases on Thursday. Notably, the market would pay more attention to the highly significant August ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. This time, the street analysts expect this PMI data to report 54.0 points vs. the previous 53.7 points.

Prior to the ISM Index release, the traders would look for the US August Jobs data. This time, the market estimates the ADP Employment Change to record 149K vs. the last 156K. Laterwards, the Jobless and Q2 Non-Farm Productivity data releases might catch further market attention.

Anyhow, the consensus stays bullish over the July MoM Factory Orders, expecting 1.0% over the previous 0.6%.

On the Canadian front, at around 15:45 GMT, BoC‘s Schembri would provide his opinions on the economic outlook. Notably, earlier this week, the policymakers had kept the interest rates unchanged at 1.75%.

Later today, the EIA Oil Stocks Change computed since Aug 30 might act as a potential oil-catalyst. The Street estimate this Crude data to record -2.634 million in comparison to the prior -10.027 million.

Technical Analysis

1-Day Chart

A significant counter-trendline was already blocking the upside moves of the USD/CAD pair. Nevertheless, the pair was underway a tumbling rally after displaying a 0.85% drop yesterday.

USDCAD 1 Day 05 September 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 05 September 2019

Additionally, the significant Parabolic SAR remained stalled well above the trading pair, strengthening the bears. Quite noticeably, the bears were struggling to make a move out of the red Ichimoku Clouds. Meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was indicating below 50 mark, showing rising seller interest.

4-Hour Chart

On the 4H chart, the bears seem to have already started playing its role in dragging down the Loonie pair.

USDCAD 240 Min 05 September 2019
USDCAD 240 Min 05 September 2019

However, the USD/CAD had breached below a more-than-a-month-old slanting support line, triggering a massive breakdown. Today, the pair continued to drift downwards and was testing the stable 1.3211 support line in the Asian session. Interim, any price action to the north side would have activated the robust 1.3345 resistance stalled on the upside.

Forex Daily Recap – Overhead Parabolic SAR was Probing the AUD/USD Bulls

AUD/USD

Today, the Aussie pair continued to rise in rebellion for the second day in a row. The main focus of the market participants remained over the highly crucial Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data release. Quite remarkably, the Q2 QoQ GDP stood in-line with the previous 0.5%. Meanwhile, the Q2 YoY GDP recorded in-line with the 1.4% consensus estimate. Anyhow, this macro data was still below the previous 1.7%. Despite that, after rising yesterday, the bulls continued to take control over the pair’s price actions even today.

AUDUSD 1 Day 04 September 2019
AUDUSD 1 Day 04 September 2019

On the technical side, the AUD/USD pair had jumped into the upper vicinity of the Bollinger bands, sustaining a positive trend. However, the Parabolic SAR that stood above the pair was questioning the bulls.

GBP/USD

Cable made a whopping 1.51% jump today; the most substantial gain attained since the last few months. Notably, the buyers had lifted the GBP/USD pair, expecting a low possibility of a no-deal Brexit. Anyhow, from the technical front, overhead slanting descending support line was restricting further upside. Even if the pair marches above the aforementioned handle, then that would activate the north-side SMA conflux. Meantime, the firm 1.2023 support line remained stalled on the downside to prevent any potential downfalls.

GBPUSD 1 Day 04 September 2019
GBPUSD 1 Day 04 September 2019

Last day, the opposition party and the ruling party rebels defeated the government in a voting session. The voting took place to decide on passing a bill that would allow the government to delay the Brexit further. And, most importantly, blocking any chances of a no-deal EU-UK divorce.

Interim, UK PM Boris Johnson was making efforts to conduct an election before the October 31 deadline. Johnson told parliament, “Can I invite the leader of the opposition to confirm, when he stands up shortly, that if that surrender bill is passed, he will allow the people of this country to have their view on what he is proposing to hand over in their name with an election on October the 15th?”

USD/CAD

A massive 0.79% plunge in the Loonie pair‘s daily price actions took the pair into the lower vicinity of the Bollinger Bands. Such a decisive move has developed a strong downtrend prospective for the pair’s future actions.

USDCAD 1 Day 04 September 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 04 September 2019

Meantime, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept the interest rates unchanged at 1.75% as expected. Nonetheless, the policymakers mentioned that the adverse effects developed on the rising trade tensions kept weighing on the global economic growth.

EUR/USD

After bouncing off the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands last day, the Fiber breached above a 10-day old counter-trend line today. Such a strong move came following the appointment of Christine Lagarde as the next ECB President. Lawmakers had elected already Lagarde in July with 37 in favor, 11 against, and 4 abstentions.

EURUSD 1 Day 04 September 2019
EURUSD 1 Day 04 September 2019

Earlier today, the August Markit PMI Composite for the German and Eurozone regions reported upbeat data, pleasing the buyers. Also, the Eurozone July YoY Retail Sales came out 0.2% higher than the 2.0% market hopes.

Notably, the EUR/USD pair was heading to the north, targeting the center line of the Bands. Needless to say, the Stochastic Oscillator continued to remain below 20 mark, showing oversold conditions. A further move to the upper side would have activated the strong resistance stalled near 1.1107 level.

 

 

 

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – 1.3345 on Target Ahead of BoC Rate Decision

After making a decisive move from 1.3330 level to 1.3383 level in the last North American session, the pair seemed to slow down today. During the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD pair was traveling along a straight line, staying glued to the 1.3327 level.

Significant Economic Events

Traders stay in anticipation over the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision. Notably, the central bank had lowered the rates twice in this year to cope with the rising economic sluggishness. Anyhow, this time, the market expects the BoC to keep the interest rates unchanged at 1.75%.

For Canada, the Inflation, Retail Sales, and GDP data had displayed some pleasing figures, this time. Hence, the BoC Governor Poloz might prefer to save the firepower for the upcoming quarters.

The policymakers at BoC might also look for the Fed’s actions in this regard that acts as a major lead for other central banks. However, recently, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) had already decided to hold rates this time, awaiting Fed’s call.

Meantime, US and Canadian Trade data release event might also catch market attention in the middle of the day. Noticeably, the Street analysts expect the US July Trade Balance to report $-53.5 billion vs. previous $-55.2 billion. On the other hand, the consensus estimates the Canadian July International Merchandise Trade to record $-0.40 billion vs. prior $0.14 billion.

At around 20:30 GMT, the API Crude Stock Change computed since August 30 might attempt to tweak the daily oil price actions. This Crude data had reported -11.1 million, last time.

Technical Analysis

1-Day Chart

On the daily chart, the Loonie pair appeared to linger above the Green Ichimoku Clouds. Meantime, the underlying base line and the conversion line of the Ichimoku Clouds were providing additional bull strength. Also, the USD/CAD was moving well above the Parabolic SAR technical indicator, developing further positive prospects.

USDCAD 1 Day 04 September 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 04 September 2019

However, the sturdy 1.3345 resistance handle was acting as the critical upside barrier since August 7. Ability to breach above the aforementioned resistance would immediately please the buyers. In such a triumphant upward march, the pair bulls would target the resistances stalled near 1.3423 and 1.3545 levels.

3-Hour Chart

On the 180-Min chart, the pair seemed to display an outbreak of the 1.3200/1.3350 range-bound at the start of September.

USDCAD 180 Min 04 September 2019
USDCAD 180 Min 04 September 2019

Nevertheless, the bulls were struggling to take control over the pair’s daily price actions. Also, while remaining between the 2:1 and 3:1 Gann lines, the overall short-term trend appeared more bearish. Notably, the Stochastic Oscillator signals were heading south side, revealing a lack of momentum in the pair bulls.

Forex Daily Recap – Cable Took a Breather amid Brexit Showdown

GBP/USD

After four red sessions in a row, the Cable bulls took a breather today post-UK Parliamentary voting. Quite surprisingly, UK PM Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party lost majority in the Parliament. The leading player for the Liberal Democrats win was Phillip Lee, the former Justice Minister. In front of the PM and others in the House, Lee just crossed the floor to leave the Tories and join the Opposition party. Notably, this has happened for the first time where the government lost the majority in office since John Major in 1997.

Nevertheless, Phillip Lee told Sky News that he expects more Tory defections on the horizon.

GBPUSD 1 Day 03 September 2019
GBPUSD 1 Day 03 September 2019

On the technical side, though the overall perspective remained low, the Cable attempted a small jump, aiming to recover previously incurred losses. The MACD line and the Signal line stood below the zero line, pleasing the bears.

AUD/USD

Earlier today, the RBA decided to keep interest rates unchanged at an all-time low of 1%. Notably, the Central Bank had already lowered the rates in June and July, catering the slow global and domestic economic growth. However, data revealed the adverse wage growth and falling Retail Sales statistics. Hence, the policymakers keep the door ajar for probable rate cuts in the coming quarters.

“The Board will continue to monitor developments, including in the labor market, and ease monetary policy further if needed,” to support growth and inflation targets, Lowe said in a short post-meeting statement.

Meantime, the July MoM Retail Sales reported -0.1%, missing market estimates of 0.2%.

AUDUSD 240 Min 03 September 2019
AUDUSD 240 Min 03 September 2019

On the technical chart, a strong push to the upside was pretty evident throughout the day. The AUD/USD pair has breached the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands, showcasing a demand upsurge on the buyer side. Anyhow, even if the AUD/USD pair had moved further upside then, that would have immediately activated the resistances stalled near 0.6800 and 0.6822 levels.

USD Index

Greenback bears took a part of the previously accumulated gains today as highly crucial August ISM Manufacturing PMI missed estimate. The market had expected this PMI data to report near 51.0 points, 0.2 points higher than the previous statistics. Anyhow, the actual figures came around 49.1 points, providing ammunition to the bears. Another pain for the US Dollar Index got triggered with the rise in the GBP/USD following the Parliamentary news.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 03 September 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 03 September 2019

In the interim, the Greenback had already breached above the sturdy 98.68 levels on August 30. Anyhow, the Index was heading south side on Tuesday, planning a revisit to 98.50/97.50 region.

USD/CHF

The Swiss Franc pair was shedding gains on Tuesday following upbeat August CPI data release. Noticeably, the YoY CPI recorded 0.3% over 0.2% forecasts while the MoM CPI came around 0.0% above -0.1% estimate.

USDCHF 1 Day 03 September 2019
USDCHF 1 Day 03 September 2019

At around 16:52 GMT, the USD/CHF pair was 0.26% down, trading near 0.9872 level. Needless to say, the Parabolic SAR was still below the pair accompanying the underlying 50-day SMA. Meanwhile, strong resistance cluster comprising of 100-day and 200-day SMAs was blocking the upside. Also, the Stochastics Oscillator was indicating 80 mark, showing over-bought conditions in combination with the overhead SMAs.

Any further downside would have immediately activated the critical support handles stalled near 0.9775 and 0.9701 levels.

 

 

 

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Multi-Frame Analysis Supporting the Bulls

After a small dip in the last week of August, the Loonie pair started September with some fresh upside recovery moves. However, after knocking off the 1.3360 highest mark last day, the pair bulls appeared to slow down.

Anyhow, the pair opened up near 1.3334 level on Tuesday and was taking rounds near the opening mark in the early hours.

Significant Economic Events

Canadian and US August Markit Manufacturing PMI data releases stay at the center stage as the primary driver for the pair’s daily price actions. Notably, the market expects the US Manufacturing PMI data to remain in-line with the previous 49.9 points.

Another key point of interest would remain the highly crucial August ISM Manufacturing PMI. This time, the street analysts keep a slightly bearish stance over this data, expecting 0.39% below the previous 51.2 points.

On the Crude front, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data computed since August 30 might act as a robust oil-catalyst event. This data had recorded -11.1 million, previous time.

Technical Analysis

1-Month Chart

On the monthly chart, the USD/CAD was taking the shape of a symmetrical triangle and has almost reached the apex of the triangle. Meantime, the pair stays well above the green Ichimoku Clouds, sustaining strong uptrend prospects. Anyhow, the Stochastic Oscillator was indicating near 50 mark, showing a lack of momentum in the price actions. However, the MACD line and Signal line stood well above the zero line, maintaining bull strength.

USDCAD 1 Month 03 September 2019
USDCAD 1 Month 03 September 2019

Hence, from on a broader view, chances of a breakout remains high. In such a case of a positive outbreak, the resistances stalled near 1.3697 and 1.3985 levels would get triggered.

1-Week Chart

Noticeably, the USD/CAD bulls have entered into the upper region of the Bollinger Bands, triggering a positive outlook. On heading further upside, the Loonie pair might encounter sturdy resistances stemmed near 1.3430, 1.3521, and 1.3637 levels.

USDCAD 1 Week 03 September 2019
USDCAD 1 Week 03 September 2019

Meantime, the pair was trading well above a firm support cluster comprising of major significant Simple Moving Averages (SMA). Anyhow, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was showing 50 levels, revealing neutral buyer interest.

1-Day Chart

On the daily chart, the pair was testing the sturdy 1.3345 resistance level in the Asian trading session. Anyhow, the bulls were struggling to make a move above the aforementioned handle since August 7.

USDCAD 1 Day 03 September 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 03 September 2019

Meantime, the ability to march triumphantly above the 1.3345 mark would immediately open up challenges over 1.3429 and 1.3572 resistances. Also, the Average Directional Index (ADX) was lingering below 25 mark, forecasting a range-bound or consolidated daily movement. Interim, a solid one-month-old slanting support line stood below the pair, preventing any potential downside.

 

Forex Daily Recap – Pound Dropped amid General Election Speculations

GBP/USD

The Cable dropped as UK PM Boris Johnson prepares to snap voting planned this week to delay Brexit. Notably, the Opposition party and ruling party rebels were underway consistent efforts to prevent a no-deal Brexit from all possibilities. With that, the opposition wants the PM to pass a law to delay UK’s divorce with the European Union until January 31, 2020. And, the government would call for an election in October if MP’s block no-deal.

“The purpose of the Bill is to ensure that the UK does not leave the European Union on the October 31 without an agreement, unless Parliaments consents,” lawmaker Hilary Benn said on Twitter.

On the technical side, the GBP/USD pair lost ground and dived into the lower vicinity of the Bollinger Bands.

GBPUSD 1 Day 02 September 2019
GBPUSD 1 Day 02 September 2019

Even the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was pointing towards 40 levels, showing weak buyer interest. Also, the MACD line and the signal line of the MACD indicator remained below the zero line, strengthening the bears. Further downfall would have immediately activated the stable support level stemmed near 1.2023 level.

USD/CNY

The Chinese Yuan pair continued to stay intact within the upper Bollinger Band, sustaining a strong uptrend. Quite noticeably, the USD/CNY pair was forming a bearish rising wedge trading pattern since last one month. Nevertheless, RSI was hovering above 80 levels, revealing overbought conditions.

USDCNY 1 Day 02 September 2019
USDCNY 1 Day 02 September 2019

Earlier today, August Caixin Manufacturing PMI showed up on the economic calendar. This Manufacturing PMI reported 50.4 points, rising 1.2% above the 49.8 points market hopes.

Today, the US imposed another round of tariffs over a certain amount of Chinese goods estimated to remain near $300 billion. Notably, China filed a tariff case against the US counterpart over its aggressive tariff attacks. Now, the US would have 60 days to resolve this latest dispute raised by China.

Meantime, a written US defense published on Friday in the first of the three legal cases read, “China has taken the unilateral decision to adopt aggressive industrial policy measures to steal or otherwise unfairly acquire the technology of its trading partners; the United States has adopted tariff measures to try to obtain the elimination of China’s unfair and distortive technology-transfer policies,”

USD/CHF

On Monday, the Swiss Franc pair was making efforts to breach above the overhead red Ichimoku Clouds. Also, the underlying base line and conversion line stood well below the trading pair, providing extra ammunition to the bulls.

USDCHF 1 Day 02 September 2019
USDCHF 1 Day 02 September 2019

In the meanwhile, the Switzerland July YoY Real Retail Sales recorded 1.4% over the previous 0.7%. Also, the August SVME – Purchasing Managers’ Index published data well above the market estimates.

Anyhow, the Stochastic Oscillator had crossed above 86.63 mark, showing overbought buying conditions. Nonetheless, a further move to the upside would enable immediate challenge over durable 0.9947 resistance handle.

AUD/USD

Today, the Aussie pair slipped out of the choppy bracket and was heading south after marking the daily opening near 0.6724 level. Earlier the day, the August MoM TD Securities Inflation recorded 0.0% over 0.3% prior figure.

AUDUSD 1 Day 02 September 2019
AUDUSD 1 Day 02 September 2019

However, the highly disappointing August YoY RBA Commodity Index SDR came near 6.2% over the last 16.1%. Somehow, the buyers were losing interest in the AUD/USD pair as evident from the downward heading Stochastic Oscillator lines.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Oil Prices Slip Amid Intensified Trade Tensions

On the 15-min Chart, the Loonie pair appeared to burst off a squeezed Bollinger Bands, showcasing substantial volatility. Anyhow, the USD/CAD pair was taking a U-turn at around 10:15 GMT after touching 1.3338 highest mark. On the downside, the stable 1.3317 resistance handle might act as a potential support mark.

Crude Falls on Trade War Updates

During the weekend, the US announced and brought into action a 15% tariff imposition over a variety of Chinese goods. Notably, these Chinese goods include footwear, smartwatches, and flat-panel televisions. However, the trade tensions further worsened as China played an immediate tariff retaliation. Quite noticeably, China imposed fresh duties on the US Crude, lowering the demand for the commodity.

“Despite President Trump dismissing concerns about a protracted trade war, we are of the view that the latest escalation would not result in a trade deal anytime soon,” said Samuel Siew, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

Significant Economic Events

The US and Canadian markets would remain closed on Monday on account of Labor day. Hence, the traders might pay less attention towards the economic calendar events today amid a lack of crucial data releases. Even amidst the absence of oil-catalyst data releases, the Crude prices kept fluctuating on the back of trade concerns.

Technical Analysis

1-Day Chart

On the daily chart, the Loonie pair appeared to take a small climb after struggling inside the red Ichimoku Clouds for the last few sessions. Nevertheless, the 1.3345 resistance handle might act as a sturdy resistance level, disallowing a choppy breakout. Somehow, if the pair makes a triumphant move above the aforementioned handle, then that would open up challenges over the 1.3428 and 1.3521 levels.

USDCAD 1 Day 2 September 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 2 September 2019

Notably, the ADX (Average Directional Index) technical indicator was still indicating below 20 mark, forecasting a consolidated performance. At any point, the buyers might catch some fresh bids, lifting the RSI revealing a decent buying interest of 69 levels. On the lower side, support handles remain stalled near 1.3113, 1.3099, and 1.3018 levels.

4-Hour Chart

The USD/CAD was hovering near the upper corner of the Bollinger Bands, strengthening the bulls. However, the Stochastic Oscillator was displaying overbought conditions, crossing above the 80 benchmark. Notably, the pair was testing the sturdy 1.3383 resistance level since the last month.

USDCAD 240 Min 2 September 2019
USDCAD 240 Min 2 September 2019

Also, the bulls stood highly confident, considering the underlying significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Hence, on connecting all the dots, chances of the pair to jump above the 1.3383 resistance remain high. In the meantime, a more than a month old slanting support line stay well intact to prevent any potential downside movements.

 

Forex Daily Recap – Ninja Upshot +0.37%, Entering the Upper Bollinger Band

USD/JPY

On the technical side, the Ninja has finally made a jump into the upper vicinity of the Bollinger Bands, crossing above the center line. Anyhow, the Parabolic SAR stood just overhead the trading pair, preventing more upside. However, the Stochastics indicator was showing a substantial rise in the buying activity in the trading community.

USDJPY 1 Day 29 August 2019
USDJPY 1 Day 29 August 2019

Earlier today, Bank of Japan board member Hitoshi Suzuki commented that there remains no need for further ease in the monetary policy to dodge recession fears. Suzuki mentioned that any more lowering of the borrowing would significantly hurt the overall consumer sentiment.

“If the BOJ were to consider and implement specific monetary easing measures, it would take action deemed appropriate at the time while weighing the benefits and demerits of each step,” Suzuki said in a speech to business leaders in Kumamoto, southern Japan.

USD Index

After bouncing off from the underlying red Ichimoku Clouds on August 23, the US Dollar Index continued to uphold the previously accumulated gains. On the backing of US Q2 GDP that came in-line with the forecasts, the bulls were testing the 98.57 resistance handle today. Anyhow, the efforts went in vain, and the daily volatility of the Greenback remained capped under the aforementioned resistance mark. Quite remarkably, the US Dollar Index had already breached above the sturdy 98.37 resistance mark, generating hopes for a consistent future uptrend. Notably, the Stochastics technical indicator was revealing overbought signs which could have played its role in dragging down the Index.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 29 August 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 29 August 2019

Other than the US Q2 GDP, the Jobless Claim reports remained another point of interest for the Greenback traders. The Continuing Jobless Claims computed since August 16 recorded 1.680 million over 1.698 million estimates. Meantime, the Initial Jobless Claims calculated since August 23 published 215K, in-line with the market hopes. Additionally, the July Pending Home Sales and Q2 QoQ Personal Consumption Expenditures showcased adverse reports, luring the sellers.

EUR/USD

Earlier this month, 38.2% Fibonacci level or 1.1236 level was restricting the potential upward drifts. Later the month, the bulls were not even able to make a move above 23.6% Fibonacci level or 1.1156 level. Today, the Fiber was underway a strong tumbling rally, targeting the robust 1.1027 support handle. In the interim, the Stochastic was already near the oversold conditions, keeping the ball in the sellers’ court.

EURUSD 1 Day 29 August 2019
EURUSD 1 Day 29 August 2019

On the event side, the highly significant German August YoY Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices reported 0.2% lower than the 1.2% market expectations. Quite noticeably, the German August Unemployment data remained in-line with the consensus estimates as well as the previous data.

GBP/USD

Though the Cable has had the underlying Parabolic SAR to cheer up the bulls, the pair remained far below the overhead red Ichimoku Clouds. Quite notably, 1.2294 resistance was disallowing pair’s upside. In the meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continued to indicate 46.50 levels since last day. On the Brexit front, UK PM Boris Johnson takes help from the Queen to suspend the Parliament. Hence, suspension of the UK Parliament ahead of Queen’s speech would help Boris to execute his exit plans with lesser interference.

GBPUSD 1 Day 29 August 2019
GBPUSD 1 Day 29 August 2019

“We still hope it will be possible to avoid a no-deal Brexit and we are looking forward to any proposals from the British government that fit into the Withdrawal Agreement,” Dutch Foreign Minister Stephan Blok said. “It’s in nobody’s interest to see a no-deal Brexit.”

Forex Daily Recap – USD Index was Underway to its Monthly Tops

US Dollar Index

Quite notably, the Greenback was forming a rising wedge pattern, pleasing the bears. Meanwhile, the USD Index continued to stay well above the red Ichimoku Clouds, aiming the 98.45 resistance handle. On the flip side, 97.16 stable support handle remained as an authoritative stoppage. The RSI stood muted near 55 level, maintaining a neutral perspective on future actions.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 28 August 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 28 August 2019

Later the day, after a speech in West Virginia, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin provided his economic outlook. Barkin said, “The national economy appears great. Unemployment is at 50-year lows, GDP growth is solid, and consumers feel confident and are spending,”. However, he added that the International economies were getting weaker and escalating trade tensions.” Nonetheless, the USD Index continued to believe over the bulls on Wednesday. In the middle of the day, the MBA Mortgage Applications computed since Aug 23, reported -6.2% over the previously recorded -0.9%.

AUD/USD

The Aussie pair continued to remain choppy throughout the day. Anyhow, the overall sentiment was bit leaning to the downside as the day was approaching the closing mark. Interim, overhead Parabolic SAR continued to maintain intense downward pressure on the pair’s daily price actions. Quite notably, the AUD/USD pair had attempted to make a move below the firm 0.6745 support handle. Any upside move would have immediately activated the above lying sturdy resistance cluster comprising of 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs.

AUDUSD 1 Day 28 August 2019
AUDUSD 1 Day 28 August 2019

On the event side, the Q2 Construction Work Done report came out at around 01:30 GMT, disappointing market participants. The Street analysts had expected Q2 Work report to record near -1.0% this time. However, the actual reports came around -3.8%, missing estimates.

EUR/USD

The Fiber was underway to close negative for the third consecutive day this week in order to justify the 2-month-old downtrend channel. Anyhow, a firm 1.1060 support level, was acting as a stoppage, preventing the downside.

EURUSD 1 Day 28 August 2019
EURUSD 1 Day 28 August 2019

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was indicating 40 level, showing weak buyer interest. Earlier the day, German September Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey rose 0.1 points reporting 9.7 points over the 9.6 points estimates. Anyhow, the pair appeared to pay more attention towards downbeat data releases. German July MoM Import Price Index recorded -0.2% over 0.0% consensus estimates. Also, Italian August Business Confidence came out 99.7 points, slightly lower than the 99.8 points market hopes. Later the day, German 10-year bond yield published around -0.70% in comparison to the last -0.41%.

USD/CHF

The Swiss Franc pair bulls were strongly moving to the north side, aiming the overhead red Ichimoku Clouds. Quite noticeably, the pair had already crossed above the base line and the conversion line, strengthening the bulls.

USDCHF 1 Day 28 August 2019
USDCHF 1 Day 28 August 2019

On the economic side, Switzerland August ZEW Survey – Expectations remained at the center stage on Wednesday. The actual reports came near -37.5 points over -24.0 points market hopes. On an overall view, the USD/CHF pair was forming a falling wedge trading pattern. Also, the Stochastic technical indicator was almost near the overbought levels. Meantime, strong resistances remained stalled near 0.9947 and 1.0015 levels, capping daily gains. Meantime, on the technical side, the US Dollar Index kept moving in the upper region of the Bollinger Bands.

 

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Bulls Targeting 1.3380 Critical Resistance

After arousing from 1.3230 level in the last North American session, the USD/CAD pair took an intermediate halt near 1.3300 psychological mark today. Anyhow, the bulls found a further way to the upside, touching 1.3309 level in the Asian session.

Greenback at the Top

USD Index was rebelliously making some strong upward price actions since the start of the month. Though the Greenback had undergone sharp plunges in the mid-way, the resilient bulls ensured to rebound quickly, staying above the Ichimoku Clouds.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 28 August 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 28 August 2019

Notably, the US Dollar was forming a large symmetrical triangle pattern. Today, the US Dollar Index was heading to the north side, aiming the upper portion of the aforementioned triangle. Nonetheless, any triumphant move to the upside breaching the triangle would immediately activate the resistances stalled near 98.45, 98.68, and 98.93 levels.

Significant Economic Events

The economic calendar remains light-weighted today amid the absence of significant driving economic events. Anyhow, the market remains attentive to the noteworthy speeches by Fed’s Barkin and Fed’s Daly.

Even today, the calendar lacks CAD-specific data releases. Nevertheless, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change computed since August 23 might catch the trader’s interest. The street analysts expect the EIA Crude data to report -2.133 million over the previous -2.732 million.

Technical Analysis

1-Week Chart

On the weekly chart, the USD/CAD was underway to establish a positive closing for the week, breaching above the 1.3261 resistance mark. Notably, the pair had crossed below a robust slanting ascending trend line in mid-June.

USDCAD 1 Week 28 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Week 28 August 2019

Quite remarkably, laterwards, the bulls seemed to take back control over the pair’s future actions. Underlying Parabolic SAR kept providing additional ammunition to the bulls, allowing for more strong upside price actions. On the north-side, the pair might experience a strong resistive effect near 1.3424 and 1.3516 levels. Anyhow, a dive to the downside would enable fresh challenge to the near-by stalled 1.3027 support handle.

4-Hour Chart

The ATR technical indicator was predicting a 0.0025 level volatility in every four hours of the day. However, the ATR levels remain almost near the volatility quoted at the month start or lower levels.

USDCAD 240 Min 28 August 2019
USDCAD 240 Min 28 August 2019

Nevertheless, the USD/CAD pair had crossed above the center line of the Bollinger bands, moving into its upper vicinity. However, on marching further upside, the pair might encounter the healthy resistance stemmed near 1.3338 level. Meantime, the Stochastics indicator was displaying an overbought condition in the pair. If the pair rebounds and revisits the lower region of the Bollinger bands, then that would trigger for a steady downtrend in the upcoming sessions.

Forex Daily Recap – USD/INR Dropped over RBI Payout to the Government

USD/INR

Indian rupee pair was -0.71% down on Tuesday following RBI Payout to the government. Notably, the Central Bank approved the transfer of higher-than-expected dividend to the Indian government. Last week, Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had come up some stimulus plans to boost the economy. Hence, the market had remained under fear, expecting a miss of the fiscal target this time.

USDINR 1 Day 27 August 2019
USDINR 1 Day 27 August 2019

Nevertheless, RBI’s payout of around $24.62 billion was almost more than double the previous $9.51 billion. Such a decisive move by the RBI has significantly helped the government mitigate risks. In the interim, the bond yields had shot to a three-week high on the back of weak global economic conditions.

On the technical side, the pair had rebounded to the south side after testing the 72.312 resistance handle. Anyhow, a 1-month-old slanting ascending support ensured to prevent the USD/INR bears from taking further down moves. Nonetheless, the pair continued to stay in the upper vicinity of the Bollinger Bands, sustaining a strong positive trend. Meantime, the oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) has already started playing its role in dragging down the pair.

GBP/USD

Today, Cable bulls were resiliently moving to the upside, aiming the overhead red Ichimoku Clouds. In the middle of the day, Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn backed the no-confidence vote delay decision of the cross-party. At the same time, Corbyn has prioritized to use legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit by the end of the week. Interim, Brexit Party Leader Nigel Farage warned UK PM, asking to perform a “clean break Brexit” on Oct 31. Farage added that any Brexit fudge would provoke for a general election in the autumn.

GBPUSD 1 Day 27 August 2019
GBPUSD 1 Day 27 August 2019

Needless to say, the GBP/USD pair soared over the Brexit optimism, rising above the base line and conversion line of the Ichimoku Clouds. Also, though the MACD technical indicator contained multiple green histograms pointing north, the MACD and signal lines remained below the zero line.

USD/MXN

Healthy 20.1204 resistance level was putting a lid over the pair’s daily gains last day. Today, the USD/MXN pair was 0.63% up over adverse Mexican July Trade and Unemployment data. The market had expected the July Trade Balance to report 460 million this lower than the previous 2.56 billion.

USDMXN 1 Day 27 August 2019
USDMXN 1 Day 27 August 2019

However, the actual data stood even below the estimates, recording -1.12 billion this time. Notably, the Unemployment rate came up in-line with the market hopes of around 3.7%. Meanwhile, underlying Parabolic SAR and a robust 1-month-old slanting support kept cheering the bulls.

AUD/USD

The Aussie pair was -0.27% down on Tuesday despite RBA’s Debelle’s findings of the country’s shock absorbing economy. Debelle noted that Australia’s net foreign liabilities as a percentage of the national GDP have remarkably lowered to the lowest mark. And, also most of the debt remained in AUD, making the currency a shock absorber.

“Australia has clearly been a major beneficiary of that system. The current threats to the system are a significant risk to both Australia and the world,” Debelle said.

On the technical side, the pair continued to maintain a range bound approach, trading below the Ichimoku Clouds.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Underlying Parabolic SAR Probing the Bears

After testing the sturdy 1.3315 level multiple times last day, the pair bears took charge of the future actions, dragging down the pair. Today, at the opening mark, the Loonie pair was underway the same tumbling rally. However, the pair seemed to find some significant intermediate halt near 1.3237 level in the Asian session.

Crude Upshot on Trade Hopes

Oil prices showcased an upsurge today following Trump’s prediction of a near-by trade deal with China. Yesterday, in the G7 Summit, President Trump had commented that the issues between the two parties might get resolved soon. Notably, the President’s softer stance has come after China announced a strong retaliation with tariffs on the US imports. At 04:28 GMT, the Crude Oil WTI Future was trading near $53.97 per barrel, 0.39% up since the last closing.

crude reuters
crude reuters

“Unless you believe a trade deal will happen the slowdown in the global economy continues… and earnings all over the globe will be under pressure,” said Greg McKenna, strategist at McKenna Macro.

Significant Economic Events

On Tuesday, the market stays attentive towards the US June Housing data releases. At around 13:00 GMT, the June YoY S&P/Case – Shiller Home Price Indices will come out. This time, the street analysts expect the Index to remain in line with the previous 2.4%. In the timeframe, the June MoM Housing Price Index would remain another point of interest for the traders. The market stays quite bullish over the Price Index, expecting 0.3% over the prior 0.1%. Laterwards, Consumer Confidence will get published that denotes the level of consumer confidence over economic growth.

In the North American session, the oil-catalyst API Weekly Crude Oil Stock computed since August 23 might attempt to tweak daily oil price movements.

Technical Analysis 

1-Day Chart

After testing the sturdy 1.3347 resistance handle in the previous trading sessions, the USD/CAD appeared to slow down and rebound downwards.

USDCAD 1 Day 27 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 27 August 2019

On the path to the south side, the pair was struggling to break below 1.3238 support mark in order to revisit a 38.2% Fibonacci level or 1.3221 level. Anyhow, the below-lying Parabolic SAR was questioning the bears. In the meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) had dropped significantly from 60 level to 50 level in the last few sessions, showing declining buyer interest.

3-Hour Chart

Healthy 1.3350 resistance level was putting a lid on the pair’s daily gains since August 7, restricting the upside.

USDCAD 180 Min 27 August 2019
USDCAD 180 Min 27 August 2019

Currently, the USD/CAD pair has dived below the Green Ichimoku Clouds, inviting the bears to take over control. Nevertheless, the overhead Parabolic SAR provided additional strength to the bears. Quite noticeably, the Stochastic indicator was displaying massive over-sold conditions, luring the sellers.

 

Forex Daily Recap – 38.2% Fibo Level Stopped the Ninja Bulls amid G7 Summit

USD/JPY

In the last few sessions, 50% Fibonacci retracement level or 106.886 level was putting a lid over the pair gains. Somehow, today, the Ninja was struggling to march even above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level or 106.312 level.

USDJPY 1 Day 26 August 2019
USDJPY 1 Day 26 August 2019

Quite shockingly, the Chinese Yuan pair had dropped to an 11-year low against the USD Index, fearing global economic catastrophe. Anyhow, US President Donald Trump said in the G7 Summit that positive talks with China remain underway. Trump added that China had called the US recently to make a trade deal happen. However, in Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said he had not heard that a phone call between the two sides had taken place.

Meantime, the June Leading Economic Index remained in line with the market estimates of around 93.3 points. Along with the Economic Index, the June Coincident Index also stood near 100.4 points the same as the previous figures.

US Dollar Index

During the North American session, the Greenback was crossing the center line of the Bollinger Bands, heading to the upper vicinity of the indicator.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 26 August 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 26 August 2019

Quite notably, the July Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders that excluded Aircraft data release shocked the market participants. The Street analysts had expected this Capital Goods Orders, to report -0.1%. Anyhow, the actual reports recorded 0.4%, pleasing the buyers. Also, the July Durable Goods Orders came out 2.1% over 1.1% forecasts.

Additionally, the August Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index also published upbeat reports. Nevertheless, on the technical side, the USD Index was mid-way between either channel of the Bollinger Bands. Anyhow, more-than-a-month-old slanting support line remained stalled on the bottom side, preventing potential downfalls.

EUR/USD

Fiber showcased a steady slump today after making a decisive move yesterday to justify the downtrend channel.

EURUSD 1 Day 26 August 2019
EURUSD 1 Day 26 August 2019

Overhead Parabolic SAR was further restricting the upside, encouraging the bears. However, any move to the north side, crossing the boundary of the aforementioned trend channel then that would immediately activate the above-lying SMA cluster. Interim, G7 Meeting took place in the French coastal resort of Biarritz. Major leaders agreed on a deal to provide $20 million in emergency help to Brazil and its neighbors to stop the Amazon forest fires.

On the economic calendar, the German IFO data releases grabbed market attention in the Asian trading session. Nonetheless, the IFO data reported adverse data, allowing the bears to take control over the pair. German August IFO – Expectations reported 91.3 points over 91.5 points estimates. Also, IFO – Business Climate came out 0.85% below the market hopes of around 95.1 points.

AUD/USD

The Aussie pair bulls were attempting to make some rigorous positive moves today as Trump came up with soft stances on the US-Sino trade war.

AUDUSD 1 Day 26 August 2019
AUDUSD 1 Day 26 August 2019

Notably, the AUD/USD pair was peeking into the upper region of the Bollinger Bands, looking a strong upward movement. Anyhow, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained muted near 40 levels, showing a weak interest among the buyers. Even if the pair finds a way to the upside then the resistance cluster made up of 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMA would get activated. Interestingly, the AUD/USD pair continued to maintain a choppy performance since the first week of August.

 

 

 

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Strong SMA Conflux Preventing the Downside

Since last three consecutive trading sessions, the Loonie pair was making lower highs, hinting slowing down of the bulls. Anyhow, on the backing of reliable bullish technical indicators, the pair might show resilient moves in the upcoming sessions. On moving upside, the pair might target the immediate resistance targets stemmed near 1.3320, 1.3327, and 1.3338 levels.

Crude prices continued to slip on Monday over recession fears developed out of the intensified trade tensions. Last week, China had announced some tariffs over the US goods showing strong retaliation, marking another dent on global growth.

Significant Economic Events

US Non-Defense July Capital Goods Orders that excludes Aircraft remains at the center stage for Monday. Notably, the market expects this highly significant Goods Orders data to report 0.0% over 1.5% forecasts. Quite noticeably, July Durable Goods Orders and the one that excludes Transportation would also come up in the same timeframe. From an overall glance, the market appears to stay slight bearish over the July Capital & Durable Goods Orders data releases. Along with the Goods Orders data, the traders would also eye the Chicago July Fed National Activity Index.

At around 14:30 GMT, the Dallas Fed August Manufacturing Business Index will come out. This index had recorded -6.3 points last time.

Technical Analysis

1-Month Chart

The Loonie pair appeared to remain clinched near 1.35 level since last year, maintaining a consolidated performance.

USDCAD 1 Month 26 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Month 26 August 2019

Earlier, the Stochastic technical indicator had shown over-bought conditions. And, the moving averages of the indicator was heading south since last few months, signaling a weakness generation in the pair’s daily movements. Anyhow, the 50-day near-term SMA seemed to move along with the pair, preventing the downside. If the bears take further control and breaches below the 50-day SMA, then that would immediately activate the 100-day and 200-day SMA confluence.

1-Week Chart

On the weekly chart, the USD/CAD appears to have already broken below a strong slanting ascending support line on June 17.

USDCAD 1 Month 26 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Month 26 August 2019

Somehow, the pair now seems to advance towards the upper side with below-lying Parabolic SAR. Meantime, the MACD line was making a bullish crossover with the signal line with the gradual formation of north-facing green histograms. Nevertheless, the near-term bulls might soon take control over the pair, driving it upwards.

1-Day Chart

After a few days of struggle, the USD/CAD pair has crossed above the overhead red Ichimoku Clouds.

USDCAD 1 Day 26 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 26 August 2019

Along with that, the base line and the conversion line stood below the pair, strengthening the bulls. Nonetheless, the Parabolic SAR that was hovering below the pair confirms a bullish perspective for the upcoming sessions. Interim, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continued to stay near 60 levels, showcasing buyer dominance.

 

Forex Daily Recap – Ninja Dropped Sharply as China Retaliates with Tariffs

USD/JPY

The Japanese Yen pair was testing the firm 105.520 support level in the North American session. Notably, the USD/JPY pair remained 0.81% down on Friday on the backdrop of US-Sino trade updates. Today, China proclaimed that it would impose 5% tariff on US soybeans from Sept 1. The Chinese counterpart also declared a 10% tariff on US wheat, corn and sorghum from Dec 15. Additionally, a 10% tariff on US beef and pork would come into action from Sept 1. Quite noticeably, such an immediate retaliatory tariff action develops over the latest US tariff imposition on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods.

USDJPY 1 Day 23 August 2019
USDJPY 1 Day 23 August 2019

“Any escalation in the trade dispute with China is a major concern to U.S. pork producers,” the National Pork Producers Council said in a statement.

Following this news, the USD/JPY pair shed the most gains amongst other forex pairs. On the technical side, the Ninja continued to trade under the shadow of Red Ichimoku Clouds. Also, the base line stood above the pair. Anyhow, the conversion line appeared to move inline with the pair, generating conflicting signals. Any movement on the downside would have immediately activated 105.050 and 104.656 support lines.

USD/INR

The Indian Rupee had maintained some strong uptrend price actions since last few sessions, forming a rising wedge pattern. Quite remarkably, the USD/INR bulls have thrashed above the 71.752 and 71.808 sturdy resistance marks. Anyhow, the primary trend as the day approached closing was a negative one. Nevertheless, strong support conflux made up of significant SMAs remained stalled on the downside to prevent any potential daily sharp falls.

USDINR 1 Day 23 August 2019
USDINR 1 Day 23 August 2019

Today, the Indian rupee currency rose in value as the country’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, declared government’s moves to boost the economy. Minister mentioned that the pre-budget position was retained. The main highlights read that the Foreign Institutional Investors would remain exempted from the Super-rich tax radar, as mentioned in the budget. Also, the government has removed the surcharge on the long term, and short term gains attained out of equity share trading.

USD Index

Today, Fed Chair Jeremy Powell said that the US stays in a safe place and will act appropriately in the upcoming meetings. Meantime, the bears had already conquered and were controlling the US Dollar Index. From a broader perspective, the Greenback was forming a rising wedge pattern that further supported the bearish sentiment. Somehow, the Parabolic SAR remained below the Greenback, giving hopes to the near-term bulls.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 23 August 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 23 August 2019

Powell also mentioned that the bank would primarily focus on the uprising US-Sino trade tensions and also the possibility of a hard brexit. On the other side, US President Trump again took to Twitter on Friday as Powell was set to speak saying, “Now the Fed can show their stuff,”

USD/CAD

The Loonie pair remained slightly up as estimated in our USD/CAD daily forecast article. Noticeably, the Canadian June MoM Retail Sales data had recorded upbeat reports, surpassing above the market estimates. However, the US July New Home Sales data published adverse data this time, dragging down the pair. Along with that, the elevated US-Sino trade tensions out of the latest Chinese retaliation added more oil to the fire.

 

 

 

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Traders Eye Fed’s Chief Powell’s Speech

After forming a small Doji candlestick in the first 30 min on Friday, the USD/CAD pair kept the positive trend intact. However, the Loonie pair retreated downwards on touching the 1.3327 mark in the Asian trading session.

Crude to Test 38.2% Fibo Level

On an overall basis, the Crude prices were forming a descending triangle trading pattern with the head pointing downwards. With such a bearish assumption intact, the oil prices might soon revisit the $57.27 bbl mark or 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. On moving further south side, the commodity prices might encounter the base of the descending triangle, leading to a breakdown.

OIL 1 Day 23 August 2019
OIL 1 Day 23 August 2019

Anyhow, the Crude prices appeared to jump earlier today ahead of Fed Chief’s speech. “If Powell talks about lower for longer and reverses some of the hawkish comments that we heard from Fed members earlier this week, we could see it supporting oil,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney.

Significant Economic Events

Market attention might stay over Canadian June MoM Retail Sales figures. The Street expects this Retail Sales data to remain in-line with the previous -0.1%. Somehow, the market hopes the YoY Retail data to report 0.0% in comparison to the prior -0.3%.

On the USD side, Speeches by Fed’s Chair Powell, Fed’s Mester, Fed’s Kaplan, and Fed’s Bullard would be something crucial today. Notably, FOMC July Meeting minutes had already clarified of the less likely need for easing in the economy any soon. However, the growing US-Sino trade tensions kept weighing over the global economy on a larger scale.

Baker Hughes US Rig Count release remains in the cards for Crude daily price volatility. This Crude data had reported 770, last time.

Technical Analysis

1-Week Chart

After taking a bounce off from a multi-year slanting ascending support line on July 15, the pair continued to keep the positive trend intact for the next four weeks.

USDCAD 1 Week 23 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Week 23 August 2019

Even for this week, the pair remains already 0.35% up on Friday. Anyhow, a sturdy 1.3340 resistance handle was restricting the upside since last few weeks. On the downside, strong SMA conflux consisting of the significant SMAs stood as immediate support regions.

1-Day Chart

On the daily chart, ATR depicted 66 pips volatility forecast for the day. However, the ATR stands near a 16-day low, showing a weaker price movement expectation. The USD/CAD pair had rebounded upside after hitting the 1.3290 firm support level or 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.

USDCAD 1 Week 23 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Week 23 August 2019

On the downside, a slanting support line ensured to put a stoppage to any potential losses in the upcoming sessions. Also, the Moving Averages Convergence Divergence (MACD) was showcasing some bullish perspectives with both the MACD line and the signal line above the zero line. In a nutshell, though the pair might close on a positive note on a daily and weekly basis, the price volatility would remain limited.

 

Forex Daily Recap – Cable Scaled Up +1.14% on Positive Brexit Updates

GBP/USD

Cable remained the best performer for the day following positive updates on Brexit front. Quite notably, the GBP/USD pair had already made an upper drift, crossing above the Red Ichimoku Clouds that acted as firm support. Also, the base line and the conversion line stood below the trading pair, providing additional strength to the bulls.

GBPUSD 240 Min 22 August 2019
GBPUSD 240 Min 22 August 2019

Earlier, German Chancellor Angela Merkel had given Britain 30-days time to come up with a solution for the Irish Backstop. However, today, Merkel clarified that she wanted to highlight “shorter time” by mentioning 30-days.

“It was said we would probably find a solution in two years. But we could also find one in the next 30 days, why not?” said Merkel, Europe’s most powerful leader.

Anyhow, later the day, French President Emmanuel Macron commented that it was too late to get a whole new deal before the deadline. However, both parties were simultaneously preparing to face the repercussions in case of a no-deal Brexit.

Meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has skyrocketed to 71 levels, revealing higher buyer interest.

EUR/USD

The Fiber was almost near its opening mark as the day was approaching closing, forming a Grave Stone Doji Candlestick. Noticeably, the RSI remained muted near 40 mark, showing neutral buyer interest. The major downside developed as counterpart GBP rose amid optimistic Brexit updates. Anyhow, the economic docket remained green on the backdrop of upbeat economic data releases. German August Markit Manufacturing PMI reported 43.6 points, higher than 43.0 market expectations. Also, August Eurozone Markit PMI Composite recorded 1.17% above the 51.2 points consensus estimates.

EURUSD 1 Day 22 August 2019
EURUSD 1 Day 22 August 2019

At around 11:30 GMT, ECB Meeting minutes read that the outlook for the economy remains weaker and further stimulus would come as early as in September. Meantime, reports suggested that the Eurozone economy had hardly grown in the Q2’19 while German steps in for a probable recession.

“Downside risks had become more pervasive and that their persistence could ultimately also necessitate a revision to the baseline growth scenario,” the ECB minutes read.

USD Index

Greenback had maintained a choppy performance today, remaining within 98.14/98.38 range levels. Also, the USD Index was hovering above the Ichimoku Clouds, sustaining a positive trend. The US economic docket showcased mixed data on Thursday.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 22 August 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 22 August 2019

This time, the Continuing Jobless Claims computed since August 9 reported 1.674 million over 1.700 million forecasts. And, the Initial Jobless Claims calculated since August 16 recorded 7K lower than 216K market expectations. Anyhow, the August Markit PMI data displayed adverse reports. Notably, the August Markit PMI Composite published 1.57% lower than the 50.9 points market hopes.

USD/CHF

After marking the day’s opening near 0.9827 level, the Swiss Franc pair was 0.11% up in the North American session. Earlier the day, the Q2 YoY Industrial Production data recorded 4.8% over the previous 4.3%. Such an upbeat Swiss data release had pleased the pair bears. Anyhow, the bulls seemed to overtake the bears and kept the uptrend intact. However, any downside would have got caught near the stable 0.9694 support handle. On the upper side, strong resistances remained stemmed near 0.9947, 1.0013, and 1.0098 marks in order to cap any potential upward drifts.