USD/CAD Daily Forecast – 2.5 Month Old Symmetrical Triangle in Play

Bears handed control over to the bulls in the last North American session after bouncing off 1.3251 level. Anyhow, the pair took a rebound price action earlier today after touching the 1.3315 highest mark. During the Asian trading session, the Loonie pair was heading south side, shedding the accumulated gains.

Meantime, the Crude prices dropped in the morning neutralizing last night gains developed out of upbeat EIA reports. Market analysts expect a surge in the buildup of US Crude inventories in the coming sessions, weighed over rising trade tensions.

“We’ve got the concerns surrounding U.S. and Iran, but there’s not anything to push oil out of the current range. It just seems to be volatile within it,” said Jonathan Barratt, the chief investment officer at Probis Securities in Sydney.

Significant Economic Events

US Weekly Jobless Claim data and Markit PMI data release remain at the center stage for Thursday. This time, the market expects mixed Unemployment data. The Street analysts estimate the Continuing Jobless Claims computed since August 9 to record 1.700 million over 1.726 million. On the contrary, the consensus estimate the Initial Jobless Claims calculated since August 16 to grow 6K higher than the previous 210K.

Meantime, the market hopes the August Markit PMI Composite to come out 1.74% below the prior 51.7 points.

On the Canadian side, the June MoM Wholesale Sales data will come out at around 12:30 GMT. The Street expects this Sales data to publish +0.3% this time in comparison to the last -1.8%.

Notably, the economic calendar lacked EIA/API Crude data report releases, allowing the Crude prices to take a back seat today.

Technical Analysis

1-Day Chart

Since the start of June, the USD/CAD was forming a big symmetrical triangle. Till date, the pair had remained within the aforementioned triangle and has almost reached the apex point.

USDCAD 1 Day 22 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 22 August 2019

However, in the near-term, if the pair breaches the triangle, taking the upward path, then the pair might revisit 1.3423 and 1.3519 levels. Quite noticeably, the pair stays in the upper region of the Keltner Channel, sustaining and confirming an upcoming uptrend. However, any price action to the downside would immediately activate the stable 1.3113 support handle.

2-Hour Chart

On the shorter timeframe, the USD/CAD appeared to head south.

USDCAD 120 Min 22 August 2019
USDCAD 120 Min 22 August 2019

Nevertheless, strong support region formed by the Green Ichimoku Clouds remains on the downside to catching the falling pair. However, the Parabolic SAR stood below the trading pair, generating some bullish perspective in the near term. Any movement to the upper side would call out the challenge over the resistances stalled near 1.3333 and 1.3336 levels. Nonetheless, chances for a favorable price action remained low, considering the RSI pointing towards 48 mark, developing neutral buyer interest.

 

 

Forex Daily Recap – DXY Kept Hold Gains Post-Release of FOMC Minutes

USD Index

Greenback continued to linger in the upper vicinity of the Bollinger Bands, keeping intact accumulated gains.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 21 August 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 21 August 2019

Later the day, the July FOMC meeting minutes came out at around 18:00 GMT. The policymakers indicated that the last rate cut was a “mid-cycle adjustment”. The Fed officials also added that the rate cut shouldn’t be taken as a “pre-set course” for future cuts. Quite surprisingly,  the minutes also noted that few members wanted a 50 bps cut, based primarily on the weak inflation readings.

GBP/USD

Cable continued to stay consolidated near 1.1264 level on Wednesday. Red Ichimoku Clouds and adjoining base line of the indicator were hovering above the pair. Anyhow, the conversion line stood well below the GBP/USD pair, pouring cold water over the bearish sentiment. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was taking rounds near 37/41 range level, upkeeping a neutral market perspective.

GBPUSD 1 Day 21 August 2019
GBPUSD 1 Day 21 August 2019

At around 08:30 GMT, the UK July Public Sector Net Borrowing came out, disappointing the market participants. The Net Borrowing recorded near £-1.971 billion over £-2.650 billion estimates.

Meantime, today, German Spokesperson, Steffen Seibert proclaimed, “Germany prepares to accept a disorderly Brexit, considering the realities.” The Spokesperson also added that the country always would prefer an orderly Brexit. However, Steffen highlights the importance of accepting the reality in case of an unavoidable no deal EU-UK divorce.

AUD/USD

The daily volatility in the Aussie pair remained choppy as the day was approaching closing. Notably, the AUD/USD pair had opened up near 0.6778 level and was +0.15% up in the North American session. Earlier the day, the July MoM Westpac Leading Index reported upbeat data this time. The Leading Index recorded 0.14% over the prior -0.08%.

AUDUSD 1 Day 21 August 2019
AUDUSD 1 Day 21 August 2019

Anyhow, the bulls appeared quite out-of-mood to make some rigorous moves today. Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair stood underway struggle to breach above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level or 0.6818 level. Ability to break above aforementioned resistance handle would immediately activate the upside barriers near 0.7037 and 0.7075 marks. Additionally, the Stochastic line (%K) was showing resilient movement, moving above the %D line of the indicator, pleasing the buyers.

USD/CAD

After testing the sturdy 1.3323 resistance, the Loonie pair was heading downside into the red Ichimoku Clouds. Here, the Clouds were acting as a strong support region, disallowing the bears’ entry. Also, the MACD line and the signal line of the MACD technical indicator appeared to look south side today.

USDCAD 1 Day 21 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 21 August 2019

Anyhow, the below-lying Parabolic SAR helped to keep the tempo higher, providing near-term hopes to the bulls. Upbeat July Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained as the primary driver that lifted the CAD currency. However, such a price action had an inverse impact on the Loonie pair allowing the bears to take over the pair. The July YoY BoC CPI Core rose 0.3% over the previous 0.0%. Also, the MoM CPI data surged 0.2% in comparison to the prior 0.1%.

On the other hand, the Crude prices also grew, further pushing down the USD/CAD pair. Today, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change computed since August 16, published -2.732 million over -1.889 million forecasts. Hence, the inventories drop signaled for a rise in the demand for the commodity, allowing a price upsurge.

 

 

 

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Choppy Ahead of July FOMC Minutes Release

After breaching above the robust 1.3337 resistance handle last day, the pair had rebounded downside in the next move. Today, the USD/CAD pair opened near 1.3318 level and handed over the control to the bears. Nonetheless, the pair remained capped within 1.3312 level in the Asian trading session.

Key Economic Events

After a long time, the market will witness some significant CAD-specific events today. The major focus would remain over the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. This time, the street analysts forecast the YoY CPI to drop 0.3% over 2.0% prior figures. On the contrary, the consensus estimates the MoM CPI to soar 0.4%, reporting 0.2% over -0.2% previous figures.

Later the day, on the US economic docket, traders would pay attention to the release of July FOMC minutes, scheduled at 18:00 GMT. The US Fed appears to lead all other major Central banks for a rate cut. The market keeps a dovish stance over the FOMC minutes after the 25 bps rate cut of last month. Nevertheless, Fed Chair Powell had showcased lower signals for further ease in the monetary policy. Such a confusion among the market participants would get clarified post-release of FOMC minutes today.

Release of US July MoM Existing Home Sales would remain another point of interest for the traders on Wednesday. The market hopes this Housing data to jump 120K this time over the last 5.27 million.

At around 14:30 GMT, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change computed since August 16 will come out. The street expects this Crude data to record -1.885 million in place of the prior 1.580 million.

Technical Analysis

1-Day Chart

On the daily chart, the Loonie pair was displaying a choppy performance, backed by an overbought Stochastic technical indicator. Hence, accordingly, the market might witness a congestion breakdown in the near term.

USDCAD 1 Day 21 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 21 August 2019

Nevertheless, a 1-month-old slanting ascending support line remain stalled beneath the pair to prevent any potential downfalls. In case of upward price action in the near term, breaking above the sturdy 1.3345 resistance would call for another big challenge. Above all, the major supporting rationale for the bulls remains the below-lying Parabolic SAR which would trigger a congestion breakout soon.

3-Hour Chart

Since the start of August, the USD/CAD had hardly made a move below the Ichimoku Clouds until today.

USDCAD 180 Min 21 August 2019
USDCAD 180 Min 21 August 2019

Despite that, the conversion stays above the pair, developing a short term bearish perspective. At the same time, the base line stood below the pair, supporting the bulls. Anyhow, from a broader point of view, though there won’t happen an immediate sharp plunge, a slowdown seems imminent.

 

 

Forex Daily Recap – AUD/USD Remained Range-Bound Despite RBA Minutes

AUD/USD

The Aussie pair continued to stay within 0.6737/0.6822 range level even today. Earlier the day, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had come up with some unconventional monetary policies that included negative interest rates. Notably, the policymakers had already slashed rates twice this year, keeping the door for further stimulus. Meantime, the market awaits for a 0.75% rate by year-end, followed by a 0.5% rate in February. The minutes showed, “it was reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates would be required in Australia.”

AUDUSD 1 Day 20 August 2019
AUDUSD 1 Day 20 August 2019

On the technical chart, the AUD/USD pair was trading well below the overhead Ichimoku Clouds, strengthening the bears. However, the MACD technical indicator had just made a bullish crossover, staying below the zero line, signaling trend reversals.

USD/CHF

After taking a bounce off the 0.9694 support handle on August 14, the USD/CHF pair was heading to the north. The upward-facing pair was aiming to breach above the overhead red Ichimoku Clouds. Anyhow, the Swiss Franc pair bulls seemed to slow down today amid Switzerland July Trade data.

USDCHF 1 Day 20 August 2019
USDCHF 1 Day 20 August 2019

The July MoM Exports rose 6.87% above the previous 20,543 million. Also, the July MoM Imports grew 10.83%, reporting 18,227 million over prior 16,446 million. Following such mixed Trade data releases, the pair was already 0.21% down in the North American session. In the meanwhile, an upward move above the 0.9820 level would have activated significant resistances stalled near 0.9947, 1.0013, and 1.0098 levels.

EUR/USD

After five negative trading sessions in a row, the Fiber was heading up today, showing slight recovery signs. Anyhow, the pair continued to stay intact within a two-month-old downtrend channel on Tuesday. Interim, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was indicating 39.27 level, showing oversold conditions. At around 06:00 GMT, the July German MoM Producer Price Index reported 0.1%, in-line with the consensus estimates of around 0.1%. Also, the June MoM Eurozone Construction Output came out 0.00%, higher than the last recorded -0.46%.

EURUSD 1 Day 20 August 2019

EURUSD 1 Day 20 August 2019Later the day, Italian bond yields slipped following Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s speech. PM Conte proclaimed his resignation, blaming Matteo Salvini for the political turmoil in the nation. Italy’s 10-year bond yield tumbled 11 bps to 1.32%.

USD/MXN

Today, the overbought RSI was playing its role in dragging down the pair after testing the 19.8794 resistance handle. Anyhow, the USD/MXN pair was hovering well above the red Ichimoku Clouds, sustaining positive price actions.

USDMXN 1 Day 20 August 2019
USDMXN 1 Day 20 August 2019

Also, the base line and the conversion line stood below the trading pair, providing additional strength to the bullish side. Nevertheless, a 20-day old slanting ascending support line remained stalled on the downside, preventing daily losses.

USD/JPY

After displaying three consecutive positive sessions in a row, the Japanese Yen pair was attempting to breach above the 106.742 resistance. The pair had tested this aforementioned sturdy resistance multiple times since August 5.

USDJPY 1 Day 20 August 2019
USDJPY 1 Day 20 August 2019

Anyhow, the efforts had gone in vain each time. Even today, the pair appeared to retreat from this resistance benchmark and lowered, reaching 106.307 level. Despite that, the Parabolic SAR seemed to move below the USD/JPY pair, providing hopes for an immediate upward drift. Meantime, strong resistance conflux consisting of significant SMAs and 109.048 resistance was preventing the positive moves.

 

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – 1.3345 Resistance Putting a Lid over Daily Gains

The Loonie pair had showcased an energetic upliftment last day, allowing the pair to reach 1.3337 top level. However, the USD/CAD pair seemed to lose the ground of the accumulated gains since today’s opening. Anyhow, the pair had taken a U-turn after touching 1.3309 level in the early morning session on Tuesday.

Crude prices nudged higher today over trade optimism. The US had recently mentioned regarding extension of a reprieve that allows China’s Huawei to buy components from the US Companies.

Significant Economic Events

The economic calendar stays light weigh on Tuesday amid lack of critical economic data releases. Nevertheless, the Canadian June MoM Manufacturing Shipments report might catch market attention at around 12:30 GMT. The street analysts expect this Shipment data to record -1.7% over the previous 1.6%.

In the meanwhile, the US YoY Redbook Index computed since August 16 would come out at 12:55 GMT. This Index reveals the same-store sales growth from a sample of US general merchandise retailers consisting of 9,000 stores. The YoY Redbook Index had reported 4.4% while the MoM statistics had recorded near -2%.

Later the day, the market would witness the release of the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Change calculated since August 16. This Crude data had showcased 3.7 million, last time.

Technical Analysis

1-Month Chart

After taking a bounce off a multi-year slanting support line, the USD/CAD was underway attempting to breach above the 1.3669 resistance handle.

USDCAD 1 Month 20 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Month 20 August 2019

Anyhow, this resistance mark had successfully managed to put a lid over pair’s gains since the last two years. Anyhow, a triumphant move above the aforementioned mark would have enabled fresh challenges over the next target stalled at 1.4002 resistance mark. Interim, a below-lying Parabolic SAR was further providing the additional ammunition to the pair bulls.

1-Week Chart

On the weekly chart, the USD/CAD pair had recently crossed below a 1-year old slanting support line, signaling reversal trend.

USDCAD 1 Week 20 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Week 20 August 2019

However, green Ichimoku Clouds seemed to have arrived at the right time to catch the falling pair, acting as strong support. At any point, the pair might showcase some bullish price actions, retaining the uptrend. Notably, the pair was finding difficulty to jump above 1.3334 level or 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level since yesterday.

1-Day Chart

On the daily chart, the pair seemed to stay capped under 1.3345 resistance level.

USDCAD 1 Day 20 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 20 August 2019

Despite that, the bulls remained resilient, exploring ways to climb new heights. Even if the Loonie pair drifts to the north side, significant SMAs remain stemmed near 1.3423, and 1.3519 levels might attempt to block such a positive move. On the flip side, critical support handles remain stalled near 1.3183 and 1.3018 levels.

Forex Daily Recap – Mexican Peso Down on US-Mexico Tomato Trade War

USD/MXN

The Mexican Peso pair was revolting against the sturdy 19.8712 resistance mark on Monday. After the surprise rate cut of 25 bps last week, the Mexican Peso currency had already lost most of its value. In the interim, the US Mexico Tomato Trade war was set to lapse tariff deadline today, elevating tensions for permanent tariffs on the tomatoes. Annually, Mexico exports approximately around $2 billion in tomatoes to the US. Hence, an immediate tariff imposition would significantly impact the Mexican agricultural industry and American supermarkets. As a result, the investor sentiment was severely hurt, allowing the USD/MXN pair to soar 1.03% reaching 19.8346 mark.

USDMXN 1 Day 19 August 2019
USDMXN 1 Day 19 August 2019

On the technical chart, the pair was forming a Fry Pan Bottom trading pattern since last three months. Meantime, a 19-day old ascending slanting support line remained stalled on the downside, preventing potential daily losses. Quite noticeably, the USD/MXN pair had already breached above the 19.8346 resistance handle.

USD/JPY

The Ninja continued to stay within the lower vicinity of the Bollinger Bands, sustaining adverse price actions throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair was struggling to break and drift above the 106.742 resistance handle in order to get into the upper Bollinger Band. However, significant SMAs remained stalled on the upper side, disallowing positive price actions.

USDJPY 1 Day 19 August 2019
USDJPY 1 Day 19 August 2019

In the meanwhile, investors had expected the Central Bank to come up with some stimulus, catering the damages caused out of rising trade tensions. Even the pair had made a triumphant march above the 106.742 handle, then that would have enabled 109.048 resistance.

EUR/USD

Fiber continued to slip for the fifth consecutive session today. At around 19:20 GMT, the EUR/USD pair bears were testing 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level or 1.1081 level. On the economic docket, the downbeat Eurozone July Consumer Price Index (CPI) was something worth noticing that reported 0.1% below market hopes. Also, the July MoM CPI Core recorded -0.6% over 0.3% forecasts.

EURUSD 1 Day 19 August 2019
EURUSD 1 Day 19 August 2019

A slanting descending resistance line was already obstructing the upside. Anyhow, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was pointing below 40 mark, revealing over-sold conditions. Notably, the MACD was showcasing a bearish crossover with both the MACD and signal lines below the zero line. Additionally, the red histograms of the MACD indicator were pointing to the south, entertaining the bears.

US Dollar Index

After bouncing off the 3:1 Gann line August 10, the Greenback had entered into the upper vicinity between 1:1 and 2:1 Gann lines. Such a positive move to the upside seemed to have pleased the DXY bulls. Interim, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator had showcased a bullish crossover with the MACD line moving well above the signal line. However, the US 3-month and 6-month Bond Yields appeared to decline this time.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 19 August 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 19 August 2019

The 6-month yield figure had reported near 1.89%, last time. Anyhow, the actual statistics recorded near 1.84%, below the prior data. Also, the 3-month Bond Yield came out 0.06% below the previous 1.96%. Any move on the downside would have got captured within the solid bottom shield formed out of an active support cluster, consisting of significant SMAs. The Parabolic SAR was also moving below the Greenback, providing some additional strength to the bulls.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – 1.3344 Fibo Level Acting as a Critical Resistance

After marking the day’s opening near 1.3268 level on Monday, 1.3277 resistance ensured to cap daily gains in the Asian session. Traders can expect low volatility throughout the day amid lack of significant economic events.

USD Index at its Top Mark

Greenback bulls might conquer the pinnacle in the long-term soon, ignoring a near-term short impulsive downside. Substantial SMAs remain stalled near the bottom region of the USD Index chart, developing an excellent shield to limit daily losses.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 19 August 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 19 August 2019

On the upper side, the Greenback might have to surpass multiple barriers to reach the 99 highest level. Overhead resistances stay stemmed near 98.31, 98.44, 98.68, and 98.93 levels. However, a stable 10-day old slanting support line was another point of interest on the south side.

Oil Prices Jumped on Rising Middle East Tensions

After a weekend attack on an oilfield in eastern Saudi Arabia, the Crude Oil WTI Futures grabbed some fresh bids, climbing new levels. Also, on the technical chart, the prices were forming a falling wedge trading bullish pattern. Hence, traders can expect a strong surge in the near-term prices soon.

OIL 1 Day 19 August 2019
OIL 1 Day 19 August 2019

Anyhow, escalating trade tensions continued to put a lid over any potential gains. Meantime, reports suggested that the US President Donald Trump was quite less optimistic over resolving the trade issues. Trump proclaimed, “I’m not ready to make a deal yet.”

Significant Economic Events

Today, traders can take a back seat as the economic calendar lacks critical USD-specific and CAD-specific events. Also, the market won’t witness any oil-impacting Crude reports like the EIA/API data reports on Monday.

Technical Analysis

1-Week Chart

On the weekly chart, the USD/CAD pair was heading upwards, targeting the center line of the Bollinger Bands.

USDCAD 1 Week 19 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Week 19 August 2019

Anyhow, a triumphant march above the center line would signal for a sustained uptrend in the upcoming sessions. On an overall view, the pair was forming a symmetrical triangle for the last two years. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was stuck near 50 mark, revealing neutral buyer’s interest.

1-Day Chart

After testing the 1.3344 Fibonacci Retracement level last week, the Loonie pair appeared to rebound and head southwards.

USDCAD 1 Day 19 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 19 August 2019

However, the MACD line and the signal line of the MACD technical indicator stood above the zero line, strengthening the bulls. Also, the below-lying Parabolic SAR provided additional support to the buyer side. Ability to breach above the 1.3344 resistance would enable fresh challenge over next resistances stalled near 1.3437 and 1.3526 levels. Any move on the flip side would activate the support handles near 1.3183, 1.3112, and 1.3018 levels.

Forex Daily Recap – Rupee Pair Slipped -0.48% over Economic Stimulus Hopes

USD/INR

The Indian Rupee pair plunged more than 0.48% on Friday. In other words, the Indian Rupee currency rose over the US Dollar counterpart. Such an upliftment in the currency came following stimulus expectations from the Modi government in the next two weeks period.

USDINR 1 Day 16 August 2019
USDINR 1 Day 16 August 2019

PM Narendra Modi had reviewed the state of the economy and had asked the Finance Minister to provide detailed explanations of the current economic slowdown. Hence, speculations developed, suggesting the Modi v2.0 government to come up with a stimulus package containing New Policy framework, and tax cuts. Meanwhile, traders also focused on the growing Greenback and the rising Foreign Capital Outflows. Recent budget modification for a tax surcharge on the Super-rich had triggered this immediate Foreign Investment withdrawal from India.

On the technical side, the USD/INR had already breached above a major counter trendline, strengthening the bulls. Notably, significant resistances stalled at 71.60, and 71.82 levels were restricting the upside. However, the pair was forming a bearish rising wedge trading pattern since the start of August. Nevertheless, 70.86 and 70.47 support lines remained on the flip side, preventing any potential daily losses.

USD Index

Bulls continued to take over the bears even today. Anyhow, the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level confined the pair’s daily gains. Nevertheless, the US Dollar Index was hovering well above the Ichimoku Clouds, pleasing the buyers since last few sessions.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 16 August 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 16 August 2019

Quite noticeably, the US July Housing data showcased mixed reports on Friday. The July MoM Building Permits recorded 1.336 million over 1.270 million forecasts. On the contrary, the July MoM Housing Starts data published 1.191 million in comparison to the previous 1.241 million. Laterwards, August Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 6.58% over 97.2 points market hopes, reporting 92.1 points.

GBP/USD

Cable continued to keep the overall downtrend intact, staying under the roof of a multi-month old slanting resistance level. Interim, rising odds for a no-deal Brexit was making the Cable traders upset. Latest reports suggested that Germany was ready for a no-deal Brexit and would urge the EU to stay firm over the same stance.

GBPUSD 1 Day 16 August 2019
GBPUSD 1 Day 16 August 2019

On the other hand, Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn was struggling with extra efforts to prevent a no-deal Brexit. Recently, Corbyn mentioned openness to use legislation in case of a no-confidence vote failure to bring down the ruling party. Anyhow, the Opposition leader aims for further delay in the exit process rather than a no-deal Brexit on October 31. If at all the pair had made a positive drift then strong resistances stemmed at 1.2185, 1.2485, and 1.2766 levels would have got activated.

EUR/USD

Fiber had recently made an attempt to jump into the upper vicinity of the Bollinger Bands, providing an opportunity to the bulls. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD rebounded below the center line of the Bollinger Bands, sustaining downtrend price actions.

EURUSD 1 Day 16 August 2019
EURUSD 1 Day 16 August 2019

The European economic docket remained quite silent today amid a lack of significant economic events. In the meantime, the June Eurozone Trade Balance came around €20.6 billion over €16.3 billion. Despite that, the downtrend continued to drag down the pair’s accumulated gains. Stable 1.1064 support handle ensured to limit downside. A bearish crossover in the MACD technical indicator guided bear’s further price actions.

 

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Bulls Awaiting the Critical US July Housing Data

After hitting the 1.3340 top mark yesterday, the USD/CAD pair appeared to slow down a bit today. The pair swiftly made the opening on Friday near 1.3318 mark and was following a range-bound approach, staying within 1.3323/11 levels.

Crude Prices Forming a Descending Triangle 

Oil prices upshot on Friday following upbeat US Retail Sales data releases on the previous day.

“The robust U.S. economic data released overnight is providing some degree of comfort as it suggests a less gloomy U.S. domestic outlook and will walk back some of the more immediate recessionary concerns,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at VM Markets, said in a note.

OIL 1 Day 16 August 2019
OIL 1 Day 16 August 2019

On the technical side, the Crude prices appeared to form a descending triangle trading pattern despite today’s positive move. Strong resistance conflux consisting of the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs kept hovering above the Crude prices, strengthening the bears.

Significant Economic Events

US July Housing Market data releases would remain as the critical point of interest for traders today. The street analysts stay bullish over the July MoM Housing Starts and Building Permits data. Notably, the market estimate the July Housing Starts to report 1.257 million over the prior 1.253 million.

Another highly crucial USD-specific event – August Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index would come out at around 14:00 GMT. The consensus estimate this index to record 97.2 points this time over the last 98.4 points.

On the Canadian economic docket, traders can also provide a glance over the June Canadian foreign and domestic investment portfolios.

Meantime, Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count data might attempt to tweak the daily Crude price actions. This Crude data had reported 764, previous time.

Technical Analysis 

1-Day Chart

USDCAD 1 Day 16 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 16 August 2019

On the daily chart, the Loonie pair was heading to the south side, recalling the Death Cross of mid-July. Anyhow, ability to move to the upper side would activate robust resistances stalled near 1.3345, 1.3428, and 1.3521 levels. On the flip side, 1.3238, 1.3182, 1.3113, and 1.3018 stable support levels might act as an immediate stoppage in case of any potential downfall.

3-Hour Chart

The USD/CAD pair was hovering well above the Red Ichimoku Clouds, showing bullish dominance. Also, the base line and the conversion line stood below the pair, providing additional support.

USDCAD 180 Min 16 August 2019
USDCAD 180 Min 16 August 2019

Nevertheless, the below-lying Parabolic SAR was almost at proximity to the trading pair. Hence, the Parabolic SAR might move above the pair at any point, reversing the near-term trend. Also, the MACD line has almost crossed below the signal line, calling for bearish price actions in the upcoming sessions.

Forex Daily Recap – AUD/USD Rose +0.53% over Upbeat July Jobs Data

AUD/USD

Aussie pair bulls appeared happy today on the backdrop of upbeat July Jobs data. The consensus had estimated the July Employment Change to report 14.0K this time. Quite surprisingly, the actual reports displayed a whooping 41.1K. The primary driver for such a strong Employment change was the rise in the July Full-time Employment data that recorded 34.5K. Meantime, the July Part-time Employment statistics came around near 6.7K that had previously reported -23.4K. On the other hand, the July Unemployment figures stood near 5.2% the same as the last time.

AUDUSD 1 Day 15 August 2019
AUDUSD 1 Day 15 August 2019

Another point of interest on the Australian economic docket was the August Consumer Inflation Expectations. This Expectation data came around 3.5% above the prior 3.2%, showing bullish prospects of the consumer. Anyhow, despite such strong economic data releases, the AUD/USD pair continued to stay within 0.6822/0.6734 range level.

USD/JPY

After marking the day’s opening near 105.89 level, the Ninja showcased a pretty decent performance on Thursday. The Japanese June YoY Industrial Production came around -3.8% in comparison to -4.1% market hopes. Also, the MoM Industrial Production remained near -3.3% over -3.6% estimates. Somehow, the June Capacity Utilization published -2.6% statistics over 0.2% forecasts.

USDJPY 1 Day 15 August 2019
USDJPY 1 Day 15 August 2019

On the technical side, 106.74 resistance continued to put a lid over the pair’s daily gains that had initiated since August 3. Any triumphant march above the aforementioned resistance handle would have activated the robust 109.05 support-turned-resistance. On the flip side, a stable multiple-month-old slanting support line ensured to limit any potential daily losses.

GBP/USD

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) upshot to 37 mark today, straight from 29.43 mark. Such a strong rise in the overall sentiment came amid higher-than-expected UK July Retail Sales data releases. However, the actual Retail figures remained below the last recorded data.

GBPUSD 1 Day 15 August 2019
GBPUSD 1 Day 15 August 2019

The July YoY Retail Sales reported 3.3% over 2.6% estimate while the MoM Retail Sales recorded a 0.2% over -0.2% forecast. Notably, the YoY Retail Sales statistics that excluded the Fuel data rose 0.6%, publishing 2.9% this time. And, a stubborn resistance cluster made up of all the major SMAs and a stable slanting descending resistance line was restricting Cable‘s upper side.

USD Index

Greenback continued to sustain positive price actions even today. At 15:49 GMT, the USD Index bulls were struggling to make a move above the 98.22 mark. However, the overall intensity appeared to stay low amid mixed economic data. The highly significant July Retail Sales Control Group rose 0.7% over 0.3% market expectations.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 15 August 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 15 August 2019

Meanwhile, the Retail figures that excluded Auto data also sustained near 1.0%. Anyhow, the Initial Jobless Claim calculated since August 9 grew 9K over 211K previous figures. Also, the Continuing Jobless Claim computed since August 2 disappointed market participants, recording 1.726 million over the prior 1.687 million.

Nevertheless, upbeat August NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Q2 Non-Farm Productivity, and August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey report helped the bulls to take back control. The Greenback was quite swiftly moving around in the upper vicinity of the Bollinger Bands, luring the buyers. Anyhow, any march above the 98.22 resistance would have enabled fresh challenge on 98.35 resistance handle. In case of any unfortunate downfall, the USD Index would have encountered support lines stalled at 97.01 and 96.56 levels.

 

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Overbought RSI Playing its Role, Pleasing Bears

After touching the 1.3256 top mark yesterday, the bulls appeared to lose hold of the accumulated gains gradually. The Loonie pair had made the opening near 1.3311 level on Thursday and was heading south side laterwards. On moving further down, the USD/CAD pair might encounter the 1.3291 resistance-turned-support handle.

DXY Struggling to Maintain Uptrend

After taking a bounce off from the 2:1 Gann line earlier this month, the USD Index was underway to sustain a strong positive trend.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 15 August 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 15 August 2019

Notably, the downside remained entirely cemented with stable SMA conflux made up of 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMA. However, the RSI continued to remain muted near 56 mark since the last two sessions. Any immediate price action to the upside would activate the resistances stalled at 98.10 and 98.35 levels.

Significant Economic Events

The US Retail Sales release and Jobless Claim reports would remain under the focus light for Thursday. The market seems to remain quite bearish over the highly volatile July Retail Sales Control Group, expecting 0.3% over the previous 0.7%. Jobless Claim reports would remain as another point of interest for traders today, keeping a bearish perspective this time. Quite notably, the street analysts expect the Continuing Jobless Claim computed since August 2 to record 1.690 million over the prior 1.684 million.

Canadian July ADP Employment Change would come at around 12:30 GMT along with the release of the USD-specific events. This ADP data had recorded 30.4K last time.

Today, the economic docket lacks substantial oil-impacting Crude reports like the EIA/API which might have attempted to tweak Crude daily price actions.

Technical Analysis

1-Day Chart

Bulls appeared to stay in the lead on the daily chart. The USD/CAD pair had already breached above the Red Ichimoku Clouds, sustaining a positive outlook.

USDCAD 1 Day 15 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 15 August 2019

Also, the below-lying base line and the conversion line provided the additional ammunition to the pair bulls. A triumphant march above 1.3321 mark might immediately enable fresh challenges on 1.3343 and 1.3432 resistances. Meantime, the MACD line and the signal line of the MACD technical indicator pointed to the north, staying above the zero line. Nevertheless, the Parabolic SAR was hovering above the trading pair, signaling rising bear strength.

3-Hour Chart

Since the last North American session, the overbought RSI was steadily playing its role in bringing down the pair.

USDCAD 180 Min 15 August 2019
USDCAD 180 Min 15 August 2019

Though the pair was trading inside the upper vicinity of the Bollinger Bands, the pair was heading south after testing 1.3328 resistance. With an assumption of near-term weakness in the pair, the next targets would remain at 1.3290, 1.3213, and 1.3186 support levels. Anyhow, a breach above the 1.3328 resistance might activate 1.3345 highest mark as an immediate target on the upside.

 

 

 

Forex Daily Recap – USD/CNY Bears Stuck at 7.0236 Fib Level

USD/CNY

The Chinese Yuan pair appeared to drop today after touching the 7.0670 top mark two days back. However, stable 7.0236 Fibonacci Retracement was providing some significant support, disallowing pair’s downside. Notably, the 100-day SMA had crossed above the 200-day SMA, supplying extra ammunition to the USD/CNY bulls. Despite that, the over-sold RSI that had knocked 81 benchmark last week had already started playing its role in dragging down the pair. Quite notably, the MACD green histograms kept pointing to the north side, giving hopes for the bulls. On the lower side, a robust slanting ascending trend line stood as the firm support, preventing any potential losses.

USDCNY 1 Day 14 August 2019
USDCNY 1 Day 14 August 2019

Meantime, the Chinese economic docket displayed quite a few disappointing economic events, weakening the investor sentiment. The July YoY Retail Sales recorded 7.6% over 8.6% forecasts. Also, the July YoY Industrial Production came around 1% below the market estimation of around 5.8%. Additionally, the July YoY YTD Fixed Asset Investment published 5.7% in comparison to the consensus estimate of 5.8%.

AUD/USD

Despite positive AUD-specific data, the Aussie pair was heading south to close the day on a negative note. After pausing a strong downward rally on August 5, the AUD/USD pair appeared to take halt near 0.6749 level. Anyhow, bulls seemed to remain muted since the last few trading sessions. Meanwhile, the MACD line and the signal line of the MACD technical indicator continued to stay below the zero line, sustaining a dominant downtrend. Strong resistance conflux consisting of the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMA remained stalled on the upper side, restricting the entry of the bulls.

AUDUSD 1 Day 14 August 2019
AUDUSD 1 Day 14 August 2019

Anyhow, the Parabolic SAR had recently come below the trading pair, signaling for a near-term trend reversal. On the event side, the August Westpac Consumer Confidence reported 3.6% over the previous -4.1%. Also, at around 01:30 GMT, the Q2 Wage Price Index (WPI) came out, showing an overall mixed report this time. The QoQ WPI rose 0.1% over the market hopes while the YoY figures remained stuck at 2.3% the same as the last statistics.

EUR/USD

Despite upbeat Eurozone and German Q2 YoY GDP data, the EUR/USD pair kept slipping throughout Wednesday’s trading session.

EURUSD 1 Day 14 August 2019
EURUSD 1 Day 14 August 2019

Notably, the market had expected the German GDP figures to record 0.1%, 0.6% lower than the previous 0.7%. Anyhow, the actual reports came around 0.4%, shocking the street analysts. Meanwhile, the France July Consumer Price Index computed as per EU norm remained in-line with the previously recorded figures. Today, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continued to lose ground, heading south, targeting the 40 mark. On the upper side, strong resistances remained stalled at 1.1285, 1.1340, and 1.1404 levels. On the flip side, 1.1131 and 1.1104 support handles ensured to act as a solid shield, limiting daily losses.

GBP/USD

The Cable continued to douse in plunge today despite positive GBP-specific data releases. The July YoY CPI data upshot 0.2% this time above the market hopes of around 1.9%.

GBPUSD 1 Day 14 August 2019
GBPUSD 1 Day 14 August 2019

Even the July MoM Core CPI recorded 0.0% over -0.1% forecasts. Also, both the Producer Price Index (PPI) – Input and Output, stood well above the consensus estimates. However, ignoring such positive economic releases, the Pound pair continued to catch the downward path. On the upside, the red Ichimoku Clouds kept hovering, acting as a stable resistance region.

 

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – 1.3181/1.33 Range Disallowing Either Moves

After quoting the daily opening near 1.3214 level, the USD/CAD remained muted in the first six hours today. Laterwards, the resilient bulls took the pair to the north side, touching 1.3248 level. Quite notably, the pair was struggling to breach above this aforementioned resistance handle. Anyhow, the efforts seemed to yield no fruits, and the pair continued to linger around the same mark in the Asian session.

Meantime, the Crude Oil WTI Futures had risen last night, reaching $57.41 per barrel over optimistic trade news. Yesterday, Trump had announced a further delay on imposing 10% tariffs on half of the $300 billion target Chinese goods. However, the oil prices appeared to rebound downwards following the rising US API Crude Inventory report. This API report had recorded -3.40 million last time. Anyhow, the actual statistics came around near -2.19 million.

Significant Economic Events

The economic calendar stays quite light on Wednesday in terms of USD/CAD-impacting economic events. Anyhow, a few low volatile USD-specific events might attempt to tweak pair’s daily price actions. The July Import and Export Price Index would come out at around 12:30 GMT. The market remains slight bullish over both the Import and the Export data.

Canadian economic docket continued to remain silent amid lack of CAD-specific events.

In the meantime, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change computed since August 9 would remain as another momentous event for the USD/CAD traders. The Street estimates this Crude data to report near -2.761 million over the market hopes of around 2.385 million.

Technical Analysis

1-Week Chart

After taking a bounce off from a two-year-old slanting ascending trend line, the USD/CAD pair was heading to the north. Ability to break above the 1.3329 support-turned-resistance would signal for the pair’s strength above 1.3518 mark.

USDCAD 1 Week 14 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Week 14 August 2019

Nevertheless, even if the pair makes a triumphant move above the aforementioned upside barriers, then that would enable fresh challenge on robust 1.3725 resistance. Quite notably, the MACD line and signal remained below the zero-line, signaling low possibilities of a major bull run in the near term.

1-Day Chart

On the daily chart, the strong negative sentiment seemed to remain intact. The 50-day SMA had already crossed below the other long term substantial SMAs, marking a Death Cross.

USDCAD 1 Day 14 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 14 August 2019

On the contrary, the pair had broken above the major downtrend channel, providing slight ease to the near-term bulls. However, robust 200-day and 100-day SMA confluence, was restricting the upside. Additionally, resistances remained stalled near 1.3269 and 1.3345 handles. After close watch of the technical, the pair might stay within the 1.3181 and 1.3300 range levels.

 

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – 1.33 Psychological mark Confining Near-term Upside

The Loonie pair started the day near 1.3237 level and remained slightly muted in the early few hours. Laterwards, the pair unleashed its bulls, touching the day’s high near 1.3264 level. Notably, the pair made several attempts to breach above the aforementioned day’s then high benchmark in the Asian session. However, the efforts seemed to go in vain, allowing the RSI to drop to 52 levels.

On the Crude side, Saudi stays underway efforts to boost the commodity’s price with the IPO of Aramco. Nonetheless, escalating US-Sino trade tensions and higher expectation over US Shale Oil output continued to put a lid on the Crude prices.

“The swift reaction from Saudi Arabia will likely stabilize oil prices, but the oil price probably won’t move much above $60 per barrel until there is evidence of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at VM Markets Pte Ltd, said in a note.

Significant Economic Events

US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data releases on the cards for USD/CAD pair today. The highly crucial CPI release that excludes Food & Energy data would come out at around 12:30 GMT. Though the market expects the YoY aforementioned CPI data to report in-line with the previous 2.1%, the market stays slightly bearish over the MoM data.

Canadian economic docket would remain silent on Tuesday amid the absence of significant CAD-specific economic events.

Anyhow, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock computed since August 9 might attempt to tweak the daily oil prices and thereby the USD/CAD daily price actions. This API data had recorded -3.4 million last time.

Technical Analysis

1-Day Chart

The USD/CAD pair had already made a move above a major counter trendline near the start of August, strengthening the bulls. Anyhow, the positive trend might reverse at any point, noting the slowdown of 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

USDCAD 1 Day 13 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 13 August 2019

Hence, the 50-day SMA, along with support levels stalled near 1.3113 and 1.3018 levels was restricting the downside. Similarly, SMA confluence consisting of the 100-day and 200-day SMA kept forbidding the pair’s positive drifts. Furthermore, resistances stemmed near 1.3250, 1.3300, and 1.3345 levels added to additional barriers on the north side

4-Hour Chart

On the 4H Chart, the Loonie pair appeared to travel well above the Green Ichimoku Clouds, sustaining the near-term positive trend.

USDCAD 240 Min 13 August 2019
USDCAD 240 Min 13 August 2019

Nevertheless, 1.3300 psychological resistance handle might play out its role on any further positive price actions. Despite that, the pair was making rounds above the north-facing Parabolic SAR technical indicator, pleasing the short-term bulls. Anyhow, though the base line stood below the pair, the conversion line remained above the pair, canceling out the bullish forecasts. Meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was pointing towards 56 levels, revealing a slightly rising buyer interest.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Overhead Resistance Cluster Blocking Upside

After quoting the day’s opening near 1.3218 level, the pair kept the positive trend intact in the Asian session. At around 08:30 GMT, the USD/CAD pair was underway attempt to breakout above the 1.3243 resistance handle. Inability to make a move above this aforementioned benchmark might signal for pair’s weakness for further downward steps.

Meanwhile, the Crude prices nudged lower today on the backdrop of escalating US-Sino trade dispute, lowering the overall demand outlook. In the morning session, the oil prices were trading near $53.73 per barrel.

Significant Economic Events

The economic calendar stays lightly weighted amid lack of substantial economic events throughout the day. Meantime, the Crude bulls take a back seat on the absence of oil-catalyst events like EIA/API data releases.

Anyhow, the US Department of Treasury will publish the 3-month and 6-month Bill Yields at around 15:30 GMT. The 3-month Bill Yield had recorded near 1.99% while the 6-month Yield had marked at 1.95%.

Another point of interest for the day remains over the July Monthly Budget Statement which will come out at 18:00 GMT. This Budget Statement had reported $-8.0 billion last time. However, this time, the market expects this data to come near $-112.5 billion.

Technical Analysis

1-Month Chart

After maintaining a robust upward rally since 2011 until 2H’15, the Loonie pair was taking the shape of a symmetric triangle. Quite noticeably, the 50-day SMA had already made a superb jump over the 200-day SMA, making a Golden Cross.

USDCAD 1 Month 12 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Month 12 August 2019

Also, the pair currently stays near the apex of the symmetrical triangle and hence an immediate breakout at any point remains imminent. Though the histograms of the MACD technical indicator were pointing north side, the signal line remained above the zero line, entangled with the signal line.

1-Week Chart

On the weekly chart, the pair appeared to sustain slanting uptrend price actions since last few years. The bulls seem to step down as the pair has broken below a 2:1 Gann line.

USDCAD 1 Week 12 August 2019

USDCAD 1 Week 12 August 2019Anyhow, as per the monthly chart, the overall trend might come out positive. Hence, intermediate noises remain quite evident as a part of any upward price movement. Additionally, the below lying SMA confluence consisting of the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMA, kept encouraging the bulls.

1-Day Chart

Now, focusing over the daily chart, the USD/CAD pair appears to attempt for a breakout out of the Red Ichimoku Clouds. An earlier disruption of a major counter trendline had already provided the necessary ammunition to the bulls.

USDCAD 1 Day 12 August 2019

USDCAD 1 Day 12 August 2019Anyhow, the overhead Ichimoku Clouds and north side-lying Parabolic SAR kept the downward push intact. Ability to breach above the 1.3247 mark would activate the resistances stalled near 1.3278, 1.3302, and 1.3375 levels.

Forex Daily Recap – UK GDP Declined, Pushing GBP to Multi-Year Lows

GBP/USD

Cable continued to travel below the zero-line of the MACD, luring the sellers. The investor sentiment dropped significantly in the backdrop of downbeat UK economic data releases. The ongoing Brexit chaos seemed to have an impact over the UK’s economy.

GBPUSD 1 Day 09 August 2019
GBPUSD 1 Day 09 August 2019

Notably, the UK Q2 GDP remained at the top of the trader’s daily event watchlist. The market had already forecasted the GDP figures to decline by 0.5% this time and report near 0.0%. Somehow, the actual GDP statistics came around -0.2%, shocking the market participants. Moreover, the June Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production data also published adverse reports. Despite that, the UK PM Boris Johnson remained stubborn over exiting UK irrespective of attaining a deal for a Brexit.

USD/CNY

The Chinese Yuan pair continued to stay sustained within a multi-month uptrend channel. Quite noticeably, the MACD line had already crossed above the signal line at the start of August, favoring the bulls. Meantime, RSI stood near 81.03 overbought levels. At any point, this overbought RSI could have played its role in dragging down the pair. Anyhow, such a detrimental act has not taken place yet.

USDCNY 1 Day 09 August 2019
USDCNY 1 Day 09 August 2019

On the other hand, the Chinese economic docket showcased mixed data releases throughout the day. The July YoY Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.1% this time over the market hopes of around 2.7%. Also, the MoM CPI reported 0.4% in comparison to the 0.2% estimates. Somehow, the Chinese July YoY Producer Price Index (PPI) displayed -0.3% over -0.1% forecasts, pouring cold water on the pair’s daily positive drifts.

USD/CHF

After testing the overhead red Ichimoku Clouds earlier this month, the bears had taken control over the pair’s daily price actions. Even today, the pair extended the previous day’s downward rally, hovering near 0.9733 level.

USDCHF 1 Day 09 August 2019
USDCHF 1 Day 09 August 2019

Anyhow, a stable 0.9694 support handle stood on the downside in order to cover up any potential losses. The base line and the conversion line of the Ichimoku Clouds were making rounds above the USD/CHF pair, encouraging the bears. At around 05:45 GMT, the July MoM Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a. came in-line with the previous as well as the consensus estimate, recording 2.3%.

USD/CAD

Canadian currency slipped following disappointing Jobs data thereby allowing the Loonie pair to climb fresh heights.

USDCAD 1 Day 09 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 09 August 2019

The July Net Change in Employment reported -24.2K over +12.5K street estimates. Also, the July Unemployment Rate rose 0.2% this time in comparison to the last 5.5%. Even the June MoM Building Permits came around -3.7% over +1.5% forecast. In the meanwhile, the July YoY Average Hourly Wages soared 0.9% over the last recorded 3.6%. Anyhow, the USD/CAD pair appeared to shrug over this upbeat data and refocused on the downbeat ones.

USD/ZAR

The Rand pair geared up on Friday, escalating towards the 1:1 Gann line, developing strong positive price actions. The RSI has crossed the 70 overbought benchmark, touching 76 mark, cheering up the bulls. Such a healthy upliftment in the pair came following abrupt growth in the Chinese Yuan.

USDZAR 1 Day 09 August 2019
USDZAR 1 Day 09 August 2019

South Africa relies highly on China for its Exports and Foreign Investment activities. Therefore, South African Rand currency remains highly correlated with the performance of the Chinese Yuan. With full ammunition intact, the USD/ZAR pair breached above the sturdy 15.1912 resistance that was restricting the upside since last few sessions.

 

Forex Daily Recap – USD/CNY Kept Hold of 7 Mark Amid Strong Trade Data

USD/CNY

Chinese Yuan pair kept a hold on the seven high mark for four days in a row. Today, in the middle of Chinese Trade data releases, the USD/CNY touched the daily high near 7.0442 levels. The pair continued to sustain top levels, staying above the Green Ichimoku Clouds, further strengthening the bulls. Also, a two-and-a-half-month old slanting ascending support line provided additional support to the resilient USD/CNY pair. However, at any point, the overbought RSI could have played its role in dragging down the pair.

USDCNY 1 Day 08 August 2019
USDCNY 1 Day 08 August 2019

Notably, the Chinese July Trade Balance rose $5.06 billion above the market hopes of around $40.00 billion estimates. The July YoY Exports reported +3.3% over -2.0% forecasts. Also, the July YoY Imports jumped 1.7% this time over the prior -7.3%. As per logic, the Chinese pair should have undergone a sharp pullback in the backdrop of strong trade data. Nevertheless, the traders ignored the positive trade data and continued to keep the positions unsold, allowing the gains to remain untapped.

US Dollar Index

Even today, the sturdy 97.60 resistance handle continued to cap Greenback’s daily gains. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained stuck near 48/50 levels. However, any triumphant march above the aforementioned resistance would have enabled another resistance stalled near 97.82 level. On the downside, a strong support confluence made up of 50-day & 100-day SMA stood as the substantial barrier. Also, a more-than-a-month old slanting ascending support line ensured to limit pair’s daily losses.

US Dollar Index 1 Day 08 August 2019
US Dollar Index 1 Day 08 August 2019

Meantime, on the US economic docket, traders witnessed mixed data releases today. The Continuing Jobless Claims computed since July 26 reported 6K below the market expectations of around 1.690 million. Also, the Initial Jobless Claims calculated since August 2 came out 209K over 215K forecasts. However, the Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average reported downbeat data, recording 212.250K in comparison to 211.845K market hopes. Quite surprisingly, the USD Index appeared to shrug over the upbeat data releases and react over the downbeat Jobless data. In the meanwhile, the June Wholesale Inventories recorded 0.0% lower than the consensus estimates of 0.2%.

EUR/USD

The fiber was struggling to march above 1.1204 handle since the last four trading sessions and continued to perform the same on Thursday. Anyhow, the EUR/USD pair had already breached above a major counter trendline, luring the buyers. On the upper side, two resistances remained stable near 1.1252 and 1.1283 levels. Any price actions to the lower side would have enabled fresh challenge to firm supports handles near 1.1151 and 1.1116 levels. Needless to say, the RSI was indicating 50 levels, showing neutral buyer interest.

EURUSD 1 Day 08 August 2019
EURUSD 1 Day 08 August 2019

ECB mentioned in today’s Economic Bulletin that the US-China trade war would affect the growth of Eurozone. The Central Bank officials also proclaimed that the scenario would worsen, considering the possibility of a No-Deal Brexit. Laterwards, ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated that the Bank might opt for further ease in the monetary policy in the near term.

USD/JPY

USDJPY 1 Day 08 August 2019
USDJPY 1 Day 08 August 2019

Japanese Yuan pair continued to stay in the lower vicinity of the Bollinger Bands, sustaining a strong downtrend. Today, the July Eco Watchers Survey came out with the Outlook and Current reports. Both the economic data reported below the consensus estimate, discouraging the bulls. However, a healthy multi-month slanting support line kept moving on the south-side in order to prevent any immediate sharp downfalls.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Bulls Aiming 1.3589 to Justify the Rising Wedge

The Loonie pair appeared to shed off some of its previous day accumulated gains after marking the day’s opening near 1.3314 levels. Anyhow, the early hour’s plunge rally found a stoppage near 1.3276 mark. Quite noticeably, the pair remained adhered to this mark for the rest of the early morning session.

In the meantime, the Crude prices soared today over expectations that the OPEC might initiate supply cuts soon to support the falling prices. The Crude Oil WTI Futures were trading near $52.83 bbl, 0.83% up since the last closing.

Significant Economic Events

Weekly Jobless Claim data releases stay at the top in the trader’s daily event watchlist. This time, the market expects the Initial Jobless Claims computed since August 2 to report in-line with the previous 215K. However, the Street analysts keep a slight bullish aspect on the Continuing Jobless Claims calculated since July 26, expecting a 9K rise this time.

Though low volatile, today, the market would witness some CAD-specific data publishes. Statistics Canada would come up with the June New Housing Price Index at around 12:30 GMT. Notably, the Housing data play a crucial role in deciding the volatility (directly/indirectly) of CAD currency. The consensus estimate this Housing Index to report 0.0% over the last -0.1%.

Today, there remain no Oil-catalyst events like EIA or API Crude data, to tweak the commodity’s daily price actions.

Technical Analysis 

1-Week Chart

On the weekly chart, the USD/CAD bulls appeared to roll up sleeves and head north side.

USDCAD 1 Week 08 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Week 08 August 2019

On marching more upside, the pair might encounter two sturdy resistances stemmed near 1.3589 and 1.3697 levels. From an overall perspective, the pair was forming a rising wedge bearish trading pattern. Anyhow, in the upcoming sessions, the pair would test the overhead aforementioned resistances in order to justify the rising wedge pattern. Notably, the Loonie pair stood firm above all the significant SMAs, strengthening the bulls. The 50-day SMA had recently crossed above the significant 200-day SMA, making a Golden Cross. Therefore, an imminent medium-term downfall would soon replace the near term bullish price actions. In the meantime, traders can take advantage of this short term with precautionary steps intact.

4-Hour Chart

The Loonie pair was moving in the upper vicinity of the slightly wider Bollinger Bands, sustaining a strong uptrend.

USDCAD 240 Min 08 August 2019
USDCAD 240 Min 08 August 2019

Nonetheless, the pair seemed to head downwards, aiming center line of the Bollinger Bands. Anyhow, before facing the center line, the pair might have to breach the healthy 1.3253 resistance level which might change its role, acting as a stable support line. Therefore, keeping in mind the takeaways out of the weekly chart, one can expect the pair to bounce off this aforementioned resistance that might turn into support handle. In such a case, the well above positioned 1.3417 resistance would get activated.

Forex Daily Recap – Market Remained Stunned as RBNZ Slashed Rates by 50bps

NZD/USD

After the Federal Reserve and the RBA, today, the RBNZ also opted for an ease in the monetary policy. Notably, the policymakers of RBNZ have made a steep cut of 50bps, lowering the interest rates to 1.00%. The market had expected the Central Bank to come up with a 25bps this time. Anyhow, the actual interest rate decision stunned the market participants. The Bank’s Meeting minutes mentioned about the escalating US-Sino trade tensions as the primary reason for such a massive cut. Following the RBNZ interest rate announcement, the Kiwi pair dropped almost 2%, reaching 0.6455 level, last touched in 2016.

NZDUSD 1 Day 07 August 2019
NZDUSD 1 Day 07 August 2019

Meantime, Josh Williamson, an economist at Citi, said, “Offence is the best form of defense. Committee members were more concerned about global growth headwinds and the potential impact on the New Zealand economy via the trade channel.”

Quite noticeably, the NZD/USD pair was forming a rising wedge trading pattern, which had signaled for an upcoming bearish trend. Somehow, the pair had already broken down out of the aforementioned wedge, dragging the pair significantly. On the downside, the pair had thence breached, moving below the 0.6486 resistance-turned-support and 0.6432 support.

AUD/USD

Last day, the Aussie pair had formed a Spinning top trading pattern on the backdrop of RBA’s 25bps rate cut. Today, as the day was approaching, the AUD/USD pair was almost near to the opening mark, forming a Dragonfly Doji pattern. Nonetheless, the pair showcased overall decent volatility throughout the day.

AUDUSD 1 Day 07 August 2019
AUDUSD 1 Day 07 August 2019

The AUD/USD pair had touched the daily high near 0.6784 level and daily low near 0.6679 level. Despite that, the pair continued to trade, staying below the Ichimoku Clouds. Also, the base line and the conversion line of the Ichimoku Clouds stood above the pair, strengthening the bears. In the meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), continued to sustain near 24-27 range level since August 5. Earlier the day, the June Home Loans reported -0.9% over 0.6% market expectations. At the same time, upbeat June Investment Lending for Homes came out, providing relaxation to the buyers.

GBP/USD

For the last six days in a row, the sturdy 1.2172 resistance handle had confined GBP/USD pair’s upside. And, the aforementioned resistance ensured to cap pair’s daily gains even today. Nevertheless, a significant counter trendline was restricting the upward movements. Even if the pair had breached and moved above this counter trendline, then that would have enabled fresh challenge on another overhead major counter trendline. Furthermore, the 50-day SMA had also crossed and moved below the 200-day SMA, marking a Death Cross. Also, the RSI remained stuck near 30 mark since the start of August.

GBPUSD 1 Day 07 August 2019
GBPUSD 1 Day 07 August 2019

On the Brexit front, No-deal Brexit chaos appeared to alleviate a bit as French prepares for customs and regulatory checks. Hence, this shows that the government ensures to take all necessary precautions and measures to mitigate the risk following a No-deal Brexit scenario.

EUR/USD

Robust resistance confluence made up of the 50-day, and 100-day SMA was forbidding the pair’s upward movements. If the pair had marched above this aforementioned resistance region, then that would have activated the significant 200-day SMA. On the economic docket, few low volatile June German Industrial data and France Trade data came out, disappointing the Fiber traders. Anyhow, as the day was approaching to closing, the EUR/USD remained positive but remained under the earlier mentioned SMA confluence.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Bulls Resiliently Hovering Near Multi-Month Top

The Loonie pair rang the opening bell on Wednesday near 1.3281 level and displayed a slight bearish price action. Anyhow, the pair took a bounce off from the stable 1.3271 support handle, moving upside. At 03:00 GMT, the USD/CAD pair was making rounds near 1.3315 multiple month top mark with RSI indicating 60.37 levels.

Pressurized Crude Prices

The Crude Oil prices kept falling on Wednesday as intensifying US-Sino trade tensions mounted over the global economy. Therefore, the market fears of a substantial weakening in the overall demand outlook for the commodity.

OIL 1 Day 07 August 2019
OIL 1 Day 07 August 2019

Yesterday, the Oil prices had undergone a sharp pullback, breaking down out of a 2-month old symmetrical triangle. Such a breakdown signals for a bearish reversal pattern. Despite that, the Crude Oil WTI Future was 0.32% up since the last closing, trading near $53.57 bbl in the morning session. On moving further downside, the support handles stalled near $51.52 bbl and $50.63 bbl would get activated.

Significant Economic Events

The US economic docket remains quite silent today amid a lack of significant economic events. Anyhow, the Canadian July Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. data release might attempt to tweak the pair’s daily movements. The market expects this Ivey Index to grow 1.15% over the previous 52.4 points.

Later the day, Oil-catalyst EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change computed since August 2 would come out at around 14:30 GMT. This time, the consensus estimate the Crude data to record -3.313 million over the last -8.496 million.

Technical Analysis

1-Day Chart

After maintaining a steady downtrend for the last two months, the USD/CAD pair made a reversal drift on July 19. From there, the pair had sustained some positive price actions, breaking and moving above 1.3148 resistance handle. Somehow, a healthy 1.3293 resistance mark stood at the entrance to the upside, capping pair’s daily gains today.

USDCAD 1 Day 07 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 07 August 2019

However, the bulls seem to possess enough strength, considering the below lying Parabolic SAR technical indicator. If the pair makes a triumphant march above this aforementioned resistance mark, then that would enable fresh challenge on next resistances stalled at 1.3300, 1.3428, and 1.3519 levels.

1-Hour Chart

On the hourly chart, the USD/CAD pair was resiliently moving upward, staying close to the 1:1 Gann line. Also, the histograms of the Moving Averages Convergence Divergence (MACD) were pointing to the north, encouraging the bulls.

USDCAD 60 Min 07 August 2019
USDCAD 60 Min 07 August 2019

Nevertheless, if the pair takes an immediate downfall, then the 1.3247 resistance might turn into a firm support line, acting a strong barrier. However, in that case, any drastic drop beyond the 1.3247 mark would signal for further weakness in the pair, activating 1.3183, 1.3119, and 1.3045 support levels.