Today is definitely a great day for fundamental traders and those looking for higher volatility and increased momentum. Yes, it is FOMC Wednesday! Today, apart from the rate decision, we will receive economic projections, statement and a press conference. It’s truly a feast for Forex traders. This event is important for almost all assets, that is why, in our trading sniper video, we will focus today on one index, one commodity and one currency pair.
Let’s start with the index, where our star will be the Nasdaq. At the beginning of September, the price collapsed but currently we are seeing clear signs of a bullish recovery. The price fell towards the 23,6% Fibonacci level, where buyers managed to created the double bottom formation. The pattern is already active as the price broke the neckline of this structure giving us a buy signal. The sentiment is back to positive!
Now Gold, where we also have a buy signal. Optimism comes from the fact, that it broke two crucial dynamic resistances. The first one is the upper line of the symmetric triangle and the second one is the most recent down trendline. As long as the price stays above those two, sentiment is positive.
Finally, we’ll take a look at currencies, and we’ll focus on the USDJPY. Ahead of the FOMC, the USD is moving slightly lower. Here, the price also escaped from the symmetric triangle but in this case, to the downside. Currently, we are on an important mid-term support but it seems that the drop will continue.
In today’s trading sniper, we will focus on commodities, where we do have a lot action going on. We will also make small exemption and instead of three instruments, we will talk about four. End of the week is getting really interesting!
We will start this analysis with the Brent Oil, where we do have a decline after the price broke the lower line of the ascending triangle/wedge pattern. This movement is quite surprising as breakout to the upside was kind of more probable. Nevertheless, as long as we stay below the lower line of the triangle, the sentiment is negative.
Now Gold, which failed to go higher after the bullish breakout from the symmetric triangle. Instead of a bigger rise, the price went lower and is now testing the long-term up trendline. In theory, that is a great place for a bounce but in order to get a proper buy signal, we need to see bullish price action on this support first.
Now Platinum, which made a head and shoulders pattern. The price already broke the neckline and the major up trendline. Is that enough for a sell signal? Well pretty much yes, especially when we will look at the price movements at the beginning of the year, where Platinum dropped sharply after…yes, head and shoulders pattern.
We will finish with the Palladium, where we do have a proper upswing after the price escaped to the upside from the symmetric triangle pattern. Thursday brings us a very handsome upswing, so the buy signal is totally ON.
In today’s trading sniper I would like to show you the power of triangle patterns and I will do it using rather exotic currency pairs. Triangles, especially ascending and descending ones are super powerful formations, which can be a reliable and trustworthy friend of every technical trader.
First instrument is the CADCHF, where we have a beautiful ascending triangle pattern. This is promoting a breakout to the upside and it is happening as we speak. Since today, the price couldn’t break the 0.693 resistance. The first day of September brings us an attack and in consequence a breakout which leads to a mid-term buy signal.
An example how effective an ascending triangle can be is seen on the AUDJPY chart, where the ascending triangle has been present since June. Last week, the price finally broke the 76.6 resistance, which brought us a legitimate buy signal. Sentiment here is definitely positive.
Triangles can work both ways, the two previous examples were of ascending triangles with a horizontal resistance and now I will show you the descending version of this pattern – with a horizontal support. It can be spotted on the EURNOK, where the price is going lower since the end of March. A recent breakout of the lower line of the triangle gives us a proper sell signal. Sentiment here is negative.
In today’s Trading Sniper video, we will focus on the strength of the New Zealand Dollar. NZD is coming back to life after rather unsuccessful past few weeks. All this is happening rather without any support from the fundamentals. We did not have any important news from the New Zealand economy, actually if so, then negative as New Zealand stock exchange is halted for the third day following the cyber attack. Currency does not care about that though and the buyers are continuing the shopping time.
We will start with the NZDUSD, where the pair is climbing higher after the bullish breakout of the upper line of the flag. That gives us a buy signal with a potential target on the long-term down trendline. Chances that we will get there are pretty high.
Now GBPNZD, where the price is going lower after creating the head and shoulders pattern. We already broke the up trendline and the neckline of this formation. Sentiment is negative and the price should go as low as to 38,2% Fibonacci.
EURNZD is having pretty much the same situation. We also have a head and shoulders pattern with the already broken neckline. After the breakout, the price fell sharply and is currently aiming the mid-term up trendline. It looks like we will get there pretty soon.
New week, new trading opportunities! Frankly speaking, we have quite a few of them with two dominant topics: reversal on the American Dollar and a surge on stocks. Weakness of the USD is definitely striking and should not be ignored but in this trading sniper video, we will focus on the rises on the stock exchanges as for example DAX, is coming back from a very dangerous sell signal…
So yes, DAX is our first instrument of the day, and oh boy, what a day for DAX it is! On Friday, the German index finished with a breakout of the crucial 12800 support and a proper sell signal. This was surprisingly totally ignored today and the price came back above 12800 additionally breaking two mid-term dynamic resistances. A true display of bullish power.
French CAC is also climbing higher after the price broke the upper line of the flag and the horizontal resistance on 4922. The next target is a long-term down trendline, which is connecting lower highs since the beginning of June.
OK, Europe may be fine but the real star is definitely America with SP500 being on all-time highs as we speak. If it is a surprise for You then probably you are not paying attention to what is going on around You. Unlimited money supply from central banks, allowed traders to be reckless and forget about the fact that markets can also move in a direction other than north. Strength is so overwhelming that today, price broke even the upper line of the channel up formation, and believe me, this does not happen very often.
Wednesday was all about the FOMC, which didn’t turn out as stock traders had expected. Nothing bad happened and the FED will keep printing money but market participants got addicted to more and more stimulus that the lack of an increase in stimulus was taken as a negative factor. Or maybe that’s just an excuse for a correction? Either way, stocks will probably continue going higher. The monetary stimulus isn’t going anywhere anytime soon but the situation for the US dollar can be quite different. Here, we can sense a bigger correction underway.
To describe the situation of the dollar, let’s start with the Dollar Index, which on Tuesday broke a crucial horizontal support, which in theory brought us a proper sell signal. Wednesday, on the other hand, brought us a reversal above that support and as a consequence, a false breakout pattern. Those, often result in a movement in the opposite direction, in this case it would be an upswing. Sentiment for the USD is now definitely positive.
The EUR/USD is pretty much the same but reversed. Here, the price made a false bullish breakout above the important horizontal resistance of 1.19. That gives us a signal to sell with the potential target being at 1.17
The GBP/USD is also giving a sell signal. Here it also comes from the false breakout above the crucial horizontal resistance of 1.32. In addition to the breakout itself, we see a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern and a double top formation too with a potential target being the long-term up trendline. Sentiment is negative.
Monday starts with a slight optimism on the major exchanges but it’s hard to call it a game-changer as the volatility is rather low and we can sense a holiday mood on the trading floors. Worry not, in this environment we were still able to find three interesting trading setups, which you may find very interesting.
First one is a small update about the AUDNZD, which we mentioned a few times at the beginning of the month. Back then, the price was testing crucial resistance on 1.085. Price was trying to close a day above that level since September 2019. In ourprevious analysis, we said that price closing a day above that resistance will be a legitimate buy signal. And it did! Since that time, we got 8 bullish days in a row and price is currently 180 pips higher, what a move! With this, the long-term sentiment is definitely positive but a chance for a short-term bearish correction is rising.
As for the NZD, we do have a very negative situation on the NZDJPY, where we broke the lower line of the rectangle, which gave us a proper sell signal. Now, we are testing the neckline as we do have a proper head and shoulders formation. Priceclosing a day below the neckline will be a super strong sell signal, especially when we will consider a weekly chart and the shooting start candlestick bouncing from the long-term downtrend line.
Last but not least is the EURPLN, which is on the verge of breaking crucial horizontalsupport – 4,4. In the shorter-term, the price created a rectangle pattern and Mondaystarts with an attack on its lower line. First attack seems unsuccessful and it actually opens a way up north based on the possibility of a false breakout pattern. One is certain here. We are getting closer and closer to a final decision, sharp breakout and a slide or a bounce.
It will be fair to say that everybody is waiting for the new all-time highs on SP500. We are so close, almost there. Europeans don’t want to help in making that happen though as the price fell sharply at the beginning of the session on the Old Continent. I am not sure, what plan they have but one thing comes to mind: another test of 12800 on DAX.
12800 on DAX is absolutely a crucial long-term support, which holds the bullish dream alive. As long as we stay above, the buy signal is still ON. So far, so good as today’s test is successful till now for buyers as we do have a bounce, we will see if that will hold till the end of the week. One thing can be a huge obstacle here and this is a flag formation, where we had a bearish breakout, which in theory gave us a sell signal. In the end, it comes to the strength of both events. I think, that price being above 12800 is as for now, more important and relevant.
If we talk about strong horizontal supports, we need to mention EURPLN, which may be exotic for You but is extremely technical, so in consequences, enjoyable for trading. Here, the price is in the long-term horizontal support on 4.4. Exactly on this support, we have a small rectangle pattern, so the breakout should definitely show us the direction. Price going above 4.425 will be a buy signal and price dropping below 4,39 will be a signal to sell.
We have to mention Gold as the situation here is very interesting. XAU experienced a major reversal and then a correction. Correction is a pure wedge and we already broke its lower line. Breakout of the lower line of this pattern gives us a proper sell signal, so in my opinion, we should see another leg down.
Today’s video can only really be about one thing and one thing only: that’s the new bullish wave on global indices, especially European. Explain it as you want: vaccine, V-shape reversal, or stimulus, the new upswing is a fact.
DAX managed to escape from the sideways trend and break ultra-important resistance on 12800 points. The breakout is very firm and it looks like sellers completely abandoned their stronghold. Sentiment in the long-term is definitely positive. In the short-term, we can expect a small bearish correction, which would be pretty normal in these kinds of movements.
Now French CAC, which created a very handsome inverse head and shoulders pattern. We managed to break the neckline, so the buy signal is ON. Next stop, the dynamic resistance connecting highs from June and July.
Last but not least is the SP500, which is getting ready to make new all-time highs. We are very close, so it seems just a matter of time. Big chances that it will happen this week, or even today.