USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Another Test Of Support At 1.2930

USD/CAD Video 02.12.20.

Canadian Dollar Attempts To Gain More Ground Against U.S. Dollar

USD/CAD continues its attempts to settle below the support at 1.2930 while the U.S. dollar remains under pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index did not manage to settle above the resistance at 91.50 and gained downside momentum. Currently, the U.S. Dollar Index is testing the nearest support level at 91.15. The American currency is under pressure on the foreign exchange market as traders decrease their purchases of safe haven assets on signs that U.S. may finally deliver a new round of economic stimulus.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has recently stated that U.S. President Donald Trump will sign the coronavirus bill proposed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, but it remains to be seen whether Democrats will be happy with the deal that they rejected in the past.

If the U.S. Dollar Index declines below the support at 91.15., it will move towards the next support level at 91 which will be bearish for USD/CAD.

Today, the U.S. released ADP Employment Change report which showed that private businesses hired 307,000 workers in November. The report was worse than analyst expectations and highlighted the negative impact of the second wave of virus. Perhaps, the worsening situation on the job front will provide an additional incentive for Republicans and Democrats to reach a compromise deal.

Technical Analysis

usd cad december 2 2020

USD to CAD is currently testing the nearest support level at 1.2930. This support level has already been tested several times in recent trading sessions and proved its strength.

In addition, this support level was tested back in November. At that time, USD to CAD received strong support at 1.2930 and quickly rebounded towards 1.3100.

If USD to CAD manages to settle below this key support level, it will gain downside momentum and get to the test of the next support level at 1.2900.

On the upside, USD to CAD must get above the resistance area at 1.2985 – 1.3000 to have a chance to develop upside momentum. A move above this level will push USD to CAD towards the next resistance near the 20 EMA at 1.3025.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Gets Back Above The $45 Level As Crude Inventories Decline

Oil Video 02.12.20.

Crude Inventories Decrease By 0.7 Million Barrels

EIA has just released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report which indicated that crude inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels. The recent API Crude Oil Stock Change report indicated that crude inventories increased by 4.1 million but the market typically relies on EIA data.

Gasoline inventories grew by 3.5 million barrels, and it looks like demand for gasoline is set to remain weak in the last month of this year. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels.

Interestingly, U.S. domestic oil production grew from 11 million barrels per day (bpd) to 11.1 million bpd. The potential growth of U.S. domestic oil production is one of the main questions for oil traders at the end of this year.

Previously, most analysts, including EIA, believed that U.S. oil production will remain close to 11 million bpd. However, oil managed to get to the $45 level and may move even higher, pushing U.S. producers to increase oil output in order to boost their revenues.

U.S. production has just made its first step away from the 11 million bpd level, but it may gain more momentum in case oil remains above the $45 level.

Norway Will Increase Its Oil Production In 2021

While OPEC+ continues negotiations about the potential extension of current oil production cuts, Norway announced that its production cuts would expire at the end of this year.

Norway is not a member of OPEC+, and its government-mandated production cuts were voluntary.

However, Norway’s decision may complicate OPEC+ negotiations as many OPEC+ members are not happy to watch how their market share is decreasing while others increase their oil production.

The market clearly needs a three-month extension of current production cuts, but even a decision to gradually increase production may also provide some support to prices.

OPEC+ must do everything to avoid a complete failure of current negotiations which may lead to a brutal sell-off. OPEC+ members will resume their negotiations tomorrow, and oil will likely be very volatile during the remaining trading sessions of this week.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Pulls Back After Yesterday’s Rally

Silver Video 02.12.20.

Silver Tests The Support At The 20 EMA

Silver failed to settle above the 50 EMA at $24.10 and declined towards the 20 EMA at $23.80 while the U.S. dollar was mostly flat against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index received strong support near 91.15 and tested the nearest resistance level at 91.50. However, the U.S. Dollar Index failed to gain sufficient upside momentum and declined towards 91.30.

If the U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below the support at 91.15, it will gain downside momentum and move towards the next support at 91 which will be bullish for silver.

Gold is currently trying to settle above the nearest resistance level at $1815. If this attempt is successful, gold will move towards the next resistance at the 20 EMA at $1840 which will be bullish for silver and other precious metals.

Gold/silver ratio made an attempt to settle below the support at 75.50 but did not manage to gain sufficient downside momentum and returned back to 76.50. If gold/silver ratio declines below the support at 75.50, silver will get a boost.

Interestingly, the restart of U.S. stimulus negotiations failed to provide much support to silver and gold price today. At this point, it looks like precious metals traders are skeptical about near-term chances for a deal between Republicans and Democrats.

Technical Analysis

silver december 2 2020

Silver lost upside momentum after yesterday’s rally and is currently testing the support at the 20 EMA at $23.80. If silver manages to settle below this level, it will head towards the next support level at $23.30.

In case silver settles below the support at $23.30, it will gain downside momentum and head towards the next support level at $22.90.

On the upside, silver needs to get above the resistance at the 50 EMA at $24.10 to have a chance to develop additional upside momentum. The 50 EMA level continues to serve as a major obstacle on the way up, and silver will likely need more bullish catalysts to settle above this level.

If silver gets above the 50 EMA, it will head towards the next resistance level near $24.60. A move above $24.60 will open the way to the test of the resistance at $25.00.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Stocks Retreat As Traders Are Not Impressed With The Restart Of Stimulus Talks

Stimulus Negotiations Are Back Into Spotlight

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi talked about the potential stimulus package for the first time after the presidential election.

At first glance, Republicans and Democrats remain far apart. Senate leader Mitch McConnell wants to include a targeted relief bill into the $1.4 trillion funding bill for the government, but Democrats will likely oppose this proposal.

Meanwhile, a group of lawmakers unveiled a new coronavirus aid package plan worth $908 billion, which is aimed at bridging the gap between Republicans and Democrats.

It remains to be seen whether both sides are ready to reach a compromise deal. The market is not impressed, and S&P 500 futures are losing ground in premarket trading.

ADP Employment Data Disappoints

The U.S. has just released ADP Employment Change report which indicated that private businesses hired 307,000 workers in November. Analysts expected that the ADP Employment Change report will show that about 400,000 jobs were added.

The report shows that the second wave of coronavirus has started to put material pressure on the job market. Traders will soon have a chance to take a look at additional employment data. On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims reports will be released. Analysts expect Initial Jobless Claims of 775,000 and Continuing Jobless Claims of 5.9 million.

On Friday, market’s focus will shift to Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate reports. The Non Farm Payrolls report is projected to show that the economy added 481,000 jobs in November while Unemployment Rate is expected to decline to 6.9% to 6.8%.

If these reports confirm that the recovery of the job market is slowing down, stocks may find themselves under pressure.

UK Approves Pfizer’s COVID-19 Vaccine

UK has just approved the coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech. Vaccinations are expected to begin early next week.

Not surprisingly, Pfizer and BioNTech shares are gaining ground in premarket trading.

The reaction of the broader market is muted. Perhaps, traders wait for the approval of Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna‘s vaccines in the U.S.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Daily Forecast – Another Test Of Resistance At 0.7380

AUD/USD Video 02.12.20.

U.S. Dollar Remains Under Pressure Against Australian Dollar

AUD/USD is testing the resistance at 0.7380 while the U.S. dollar remains under serious pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently made an attempt to settle below the nearest support which has emerged at 91.15 but failed to develop sufficient downside momentum. If the U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below this support level, it will get to the test of the next support at 91 which will be bullish for AUD/USD.

Australia reported that third-quarter GDP Growth Rate was 3.3% compared to analyst consensus of 2.6%. GDP grew at a faster pace than expected due to Australia’s success in containing the virus. In addition, Australia’s main trading partner, China, has fully recovered from the blow dealt by the pandemic.

Today, foreign exchange market traders will have a chance to evaluate U.S. ADP Employment Change report for November which is projected to show that private businesses hired 400,000 workers. A softer-than-expected report may increase pressure on U.S. lawmakers which have recently restarted stimulus negotiations.

Technical Analysis

aud usd december 2 2020

AUD/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 0.7380. If AUD/USD manages to settle above this level, it will get to the test of the next resistance at 0.7400. A move above the resistance at 0.7400 will open the way to the test of the resistance at 0.7415.

On the support side, the nearest support level for AUD/USD is located at 0.7360. If AUD/USD declines below this level, it will head towards the next support at 0.7340. This support level has been tested in previous trading sessions and proved its strength.

In case AUD/USD declines below the support at 0.7340, it will gain downside momentum and quickly get to the test of the next support level near the 20 EMA at 0.7325.

From a big picture point of view, AUD/USD is consolidating just below the major resistance area at 0.7400 – 0.7415. If AUD/USD manages to stay above the support at 0.7360, it will have a good chance to gain upside momentum and continue the upside trend that was stopped in early September.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Resistance At 1.2090 In Sight

EUR/USD Video 02.12.20.

Euro Developed Strong Upside Momentum

EUR/USD managed to get above the psychologically important resistance level at 1.2000 and gained strong upside momentum while the U.S. dollar continued to lose ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The American currency remains under significant pressure on the foreign exchange market while traders evaluate the latest news about U.S. stimulus negotiations.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin talked about a potential stimulus package for the first time since the presidential election.

Additional stimulus will put more pressure on the U.S. dollar. Currently, the U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle below the nearest support level which has emerged at 91.15. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the 91 level which will be bullish for EUR/USD.

Yesterday, EU reported that Euro Area Manufacturing PMI decreased from 54.8 in October to 53.8 in November compared to analyst consensus of 53.6. Euro Area Inflation Rate declined by 0.3% year-over-year compared to analyst forecast which called for a decline of 0.2%. Core Inflation Rate increased by 0.2% year-over-year, in line with analyst consensus. Prices remain weak in the Euro Area as the pandemic continues to put serious pressure on the EU economy.

Today, EUR/USD traders will focus on the latest unemployment data from the EU. Analysts expect that Euro Area Unemployment Rate increased from 8.3% in September to 8.4% in October.

Technical Analysis

eur usd december 2 2020

EUR/USD has finally managed to get above the resistance at 1.2000 and immediately developed strong upside momentum. EUR/USD has not visited this area since 2018, and it remains to be seen whether previous levels will be in play in today’s trading.

The nearest resistance level for EUR/USD is located at 1.2090. If EUR/USD manages to settle above this level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.2155.

On the support side, the previous resistance at 1.2000 will serve as the first support level for EUR/USD. If EUR/USD declines below this level, it will head towards the next support at 1.1965. A move below 1.1965 will open the way to the test of the support at 1.1910.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Attempt To Settle Above 1.3400

GBP/USD Video 02.12.20.

British Pound Continues To Move Higher

GBP/USD is currently trying to settle above the resistance at 1.3400 as the U.S. dollar continues to lose ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index managed to settle below the support at 91.50 and gained significant downside momentum. The next support level has emerged near 91.15. If the U.S. Dollar Index declines below this level, it will move towards the 91 level which will be bullish for GBP/USD.

Yesterday, UK reported that Manufacturing PMI increased from 53.7 in October to 55.6 in November compared to analyst consensus of 55.2. Meanwhile, Nationwide Housing Prices increased by 6.5% year-over-year in November while analysts expected growth of 5.5%. On a month-over-month basis, Nationwide Housing Prices increased by 0.9% as the housing market remained strong.

In the U.S., Manufacturing PMI increased from 53.4 in October to 56.7 in November, in line with analyst estimates.

Today, foreign exchange market traders will focus on the U.S. ADP Employment Change report which is projected to show that private businesses hired 400,000 workers in November. Traders will also keep an eye on any Brexit news that may emerge. Negotiations between EU and UK continue, and there is little time left to reach a compromise deal.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd december 2 2020

GBP/USD gained strong upside momentum and is currently trying to settle above the major resistance level at 1.3400. GBP/USD spent many trading sessions in a range between 1.3300 and 1.3400 so RSI remains in the moderate territory. Thus, there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

The next resistance level for GBP/USD is located at September highs at 1.3485. If GBP/USD manages to settle above this level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.3515.

On the support side, GBP/USD needs to get back below 1.3400 to have a chance to develop downside momentum. A move below 1.3400 will push GBP/USD towards the next support level at 1.3325. If GBP/USD declines below this level, it will head towards the support at 1.3300.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Support At 1.2930 In Sight

USD/CAD Video 01.12.20.

U.S. Dollar Remains Under Serious Pressure

USD/CAD is moving towards the support at 1.2930 as the U.S. dollar remains under serious pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently managed to get below the support at 91.50 and gained additional downside momentum. The next material support level for the U.S. Dollar Index is located at 91. If the U.S. Dollar Index gets to the test of this level, USD/CAD will find itself under additional pressure.

Today, foreign exchange market traders had a chance to evaluate final Manufacturing PMI numbers from U.S. and Canada. In the U.S., Manufacturing PMI increased from 53.4 in October to 56.7 in November, fully in line with the analyst consensus. In Canada, Manufacturing PMI increased from 55.5 to 55.8 compared to analyst forecast of 55.3.

In addition to Manufacturing PMI report, Canada provided third-quarter GDP Growth Rate report. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, GDP increased by 8.9% in the third quarter compared to analyst forecast which called for growth of 10%.

Tomorrow, traders will focus on the U.S. ADP Employment Change report for November which is expected to show that private businesses hired 400,000 workers in November.

Analyst expectations are optimistic despite the surge in the number of new coronavirus cases in November, and it remains to be seen whether the U.S. job market remained strong in this environment.

Technical Analysis

usd cad december 1 2020

USD to CAD managed to settle below the support at 1.2985 and developed strong downside momentum. Currently, USD to CAD is trying to get to the test of the next support level at the recent lows at 1.2930.

In case USD to CAD declines below this level, it will head towards the next support level at 1.2900. A move below the support at 1.2900 will push USD to CAD towards the next support at 1.2860. It should be noted that USD to CAD has not visited this area since 2018 so previous levels may have little relevance for today’s trading.

On the upside, USD to CAD needs to get above the 1.2985 – 1.3000 resistance area to have a chance to develop upside momentum. If USD to CAD settles above the resistance at 1.3000, it will head towards the 50 EMA at 1.3050 but may also face resistance at 1.3025 along the way.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Moves Below $45 While Traders Wait For OPEC+ Decision

Oil Video 01.12.20.

OPEC+ Failed To Reach Consensus And Postponed The Second Day Of The Meeting To December 3

OPEC+ decided to postpone the second day of its meeting to December 3 so oil traders will have to spend several days waiting for the final outcome.

According to recent reports, Saudi Arabia continues to push for a three-month extension of current production cuts. However, other OPEC+ members want to gradually increase oil production.

There are several issues that OPEC+ has to deal with. Demand for oil is different in various regions. While Europe is suffering from lockdowns, Asian economies continue to rebound. Not surprisingly, those suppliers who ship their oil to Asia want to increase their output.

OPEC+ did not manage to achieve full compliance with the current deal. While compliance was very strong by OPEC standards, several members like Iraq or Nigeria exceeded their quotas.

The rising production from Libya, which is exempt from the production cut deal due to the civil war, is another worrisome development for many OPEC+ members who do not want to lose their market share.

In addition, higher oil prices may boost U.S. shale oil production. Clearly, OPEC+ members do not want to subsidize recovery of their main competitor which completely distorted the marketplace in the previous decade.

OPEC+ Must Find A Way To Support The Market

As I wrote in my previous article on oil, the best-case scenario for the oil market is a three-month extension of current oil production cuts. However, OPEC+ may be unable to reach such a deal if negotiating positions of its members are too far apart.

However, it will be vital to get any deal that could provide support to the market. Otherwise, crude oil inventories may rapidly increase and put serious pressure on oil prices.

While oil is losing ground today, the market continues to expect support from OPEC+ and does not believe in the worse-case scenario which will bring additional production of 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2021. Most likely, oil traders are right, and OPEC+ will manage to craft a deal which will support the market during the first quarter of the next year.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – A Great Day For Precious Metals

Silver Video 01.12.20.

Silver Rebounds After Recent Sell-Off

Silver gained strong upside momentum and made an attempt to settle above the 20 EMA at $23.75 while the U.S. dollar continued to lose ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has once again managed to settle below the support at 91.75 and is moving towards the next support level at the yearly lows at 91.50. If the U.S. Dollar Index settles below the support at 91.50, it will gain downside momentum and head towards the next support level at 91 which will provide support to silver and gold price today.

Gold managed to get back above the $1800 level and is trying to settle above the resistance at $1815. If this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the next resistance at the 20 EMA at $1845 which will be bullish for silver.

Gold/silver ratio has just made a major move. Yesterday, gold/silver ratio failed to settle above the 80 level and developed downside momentum. Today, it managed to get below the support at the 20 EMA at 77.60 and is trying to get below the next support level at 76.50. If gold/silver ratio declines below the support at 76.50, it will head towards the next support at November lows near 75.50 which will provide additional support to silver.

Technical Analysis

silver december 1 2020

Silver managed to settle above the resistance level at $23.30 and is trying to get above the next resistance at the 20 EMA at $23.75. If this attempt is successful, silver will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the next resistance level at the 50 EMA at $24.10.

The 50 EMA was a major resistance level for silver in the second half of November so silver will likely attract a lot of interest at this level. If silver gets above the 50 EMA, it will move towards the next resistance level near $24.60.

On the support side, the nearest support level for silver is located at the previous resistance at $23.30. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next support at $22.90. If silver declines below this support level, it will head towards the next support at $22.60.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Stocks Set To Test New Highs

Traders Are In A Good Mood At The Beginning Of The Month

S&P 500 futures are gaining about 1% in premarket trading as stocks look ready to test new highs.

There are no special catalysts for this move, and it looks like traders continue to believe that vaccines will soon improve the economic situation.

Shares of Moderna, whose vaccine is set to be approved by FDA in December, are the main beneficiary of traders’ hopes. After gaining more than 50% in recent days, Moderna’s stock is up by almost 10% in premarket trading.

In addition to vaccine optimism, investors look forward to the new coronavirus aid package. Expectations of more money-printing have recently put material pressure on the U.S. dollar which is trading near yearly lows.

OPEC+ Postponed Its Meeting To December 3

WTI oil is swinging between gains and losses while traders struggle to evaluate OPEC+ decision to postpone the second part of its meeting from December 1 to December 3.

On the one hand, this decision shows that OPEC+ members are willing to negotiate a viable deal. On the other hand, it is obvious that OPEC+ members failed to reach common ground during the first day of the meeting, and the extension of current production cuts is under question.

Yesterday, oil-related stocks suffered a serious pullback, and they will likely have a chance to rebound during today’s trading session in case oil manages to stay above the $45 level.

PMI Reports In Focus

Today, the U.S. will release the final reading of Manufacturing PMI report for November. Analysts expect that Manufacturing PMI increased from 53.4 to 56.7. Sometimes, final readings differ materially from preliminary estimates, so this report may have a significant impact on the market.

Traders will also have a chance to take a look at ISM Manufacturing PMI report which is projected to show a decline from 59.3 in October to 58 in November. Meanwhile, Construction Spending is projected to grow by 0.8% month-over-month in October.

It remains to be seen whether stocks will be sensitive to economic data or traders will remain focused on vaccines and the potential stimulus package that could be delivered in early 2021.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Daily Forecast – Support At 0.7340 Stays Strong

AUD/USD Video 01.12.20.

U.S. Dollar Is Losing Ground Against Australian Dollar

AUD/USD received support at 0.7340 and is trying to get back above the resistance at 0.7360 as the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently testing the nearest support level at 91.75. If the U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below this level, it will move towards the next support at the yearly lows at 91.50 which will be bullish for AUD/USD.

Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the interest rate unchanged at 0.10%, in line with analyst estimates. The Bank noted that the economic recovery was progressing well and that the recent economic data was better than expected.

The Bank reiterated that it would not increase the interest rate before the actual inflation is within the 2-3% range. According to the Bank’s forecast, inflation will reach 1.5% in 2022 so the interest rate will likely remain at the bottom for years.

Today, Australia reported that Manufacturing PMI increased from 54.2 in October to 55.8 in November. Building Permits increased by 3.8% month-over-month in October compared to analyst consensus which called for a decline of 3%. Foreign exchange market traders will also have a chance to evaluate the final reading of U.S. Manufacturing PMI which is projected to grow from 53.4 to 56.7.

Technical Analysis

aud usd december 1 2020

AUD/USD failed to settle below the support at 0.7340 and is trying to settle back above the nearest resistance level at 0.7360.

If this attempt is successful, AUD/USD will move towards the next resistance level at 0.7380. In case AUD/USD settles above the resistance at 0.7380, it will head towards the next resistance at the recent highs at 0.7400.

The resistance level at 0.7400 has already been tested several times and proved its strength. Most likely, AUD/USD will need additional upside catalysts to move above this level.

On the support side, the nearest support level for AUD/USD is located at 0.7340. If AUD/USD manages to settle below this level, it will gain downside momentum and get to the test of the next support level at 0.7325.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Another Test Of Resistance At 1.1965

EUR/USD Video 01.12.20.

Euro Moves Higher Against U.S. Dollar

EUR/USD is trying to settle above the resistance at 1.1965 as the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index failed to settle above the 92 level and is currently trying to get back under the support at 91.75. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will gain downside momentum and head towards the recent lows at 91.50 which will be bullish for EUR/USD.

Today, EUR/USD traders will focus on economic reports from the Euro Area. Inflation Rate is projected to decrease by 0.2% year-over-year in November while Core Inflation Rate is expected to grow by 0.2%.

EU will also provide the final reading of Manufacturing PMI for November which is expected to decline from 54.8 to 53.6. In the U.S., Manufacturing PMI is projected to grow from 53.4 in October to 56.7 in November.

In addition to economic data, foreign exchange market traders will wait for any additional news about Brexit negotiations. Time is running out for EU and UK to reach a compromise deal. The market believes that the deal would be reached, so a negative surprise on this front could lead to a major sell-off.

Technical Analysis

eur usd december 1 2020

EUR/USD managed to gain some upside momentum after yesterday’s pullback and is trying to get back above the resistance at 1.1965. If EUR/USD manages to get above this level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.2000.

This psychologically important level was tested during yesterday’s trading session, and EUR/USD faced strong resistance. While yesterday’s trading action was similar to the one that we’ve seen back in September, today’s strength of the euro shows that the pressure on the U.S. dollar is more significant than several months ago. Thus, EUR/USD has better chances to get above the resistance at 1.2000.

On the support side, the nearest material support level for EUR/USD is still located at 1.1910. In case EUR/USD declines below this level, it will head towards the next support at the 20 EMA at 1.1885.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – U.S. Dollar Is Losing Ground Against British Pound

GBP/USD Video 01.12.20.

British Pound Rebounds After Yesterday’s Pullback

GBP/USD did not manage to settle below 1.3300 and rebounded back above 1.3350 as the U.S. dollar failed to continue its rebound against a broad basket of currencies.

Yesterday, the U.S. Dollar Index managed to get below the support at the yearly lows at 91.75 and tried to develop additional downside momentum. However, it received strong support at 91.50 and made an attempt to settle above the 92 level.

This attempt yielded no results, and the U.S. Dollar Index is moving towards another test of the support at 91.75. If this test is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will head towards recent lows at 91.50 which will be bullish for GBP/USD.

On Monday, U.S. reported that Pending Home Sales decreased by 1.1% compared to analyst consensus which called for growth of 1%. Coronavirus surge and rising home prices have started to put some pressure on the U.S. housing market.

Today, UK will provide Nationwide Housing Prices report for November. Analysts expect that Nationwide Housing Prices increased by 0.3% month-over-month after growing by 0.8% in October. On a year-over-year basis, Nationwide Housing Prices are projected to grow by 5.5%.

Foreign exchange market traders will also have a chance to evaluate the final reading of UK Manufacturing PMI report. According to analyst forecast, Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase from 53.7 in October to 55.2 in November.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd december 1 2020

GBP/USD made several attempts to settle below the support at 1.3300 but failed to develop sufficient downside momentum. Currently, GBP/USD is trying to get to the test of the major resistance level at 1.3400.

This resistance level has already been tested many times and proved its strength. Most likely, GBP/USD will need additional catalysts to get above this level. These catalysts may include general weakness of the U.S. dollar or positive news on the Brexit front. If GBP/USD manages to get above the resistance at 1.3400, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.3485.

On the support side, the nearest support level for GBP/USD is located at 1.3325. If GBP/USD declines below this level, it will head towards the next support at 1.3300. A move below 1.3300 will open the way to the test of the support at 1.3270.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Support At 1.2930 Remains Strong

USD/CAD Video 30.11.20.

Suddenly, U.S. Dollar Gained Upside Momentum

USD/CAD made an attempt to settle below the support at 1.2930 but lost downside momentum and is trying to settle above the resistance at 1.2985 as the U.S. dollar reversed course against a broad basket of currencies.

Earlier, the U.S. Dollar Index managed to get below the support at 91.75 and tried to develop additional downside momentum. However, the U.S. Dollar index received strong support at 91.50 and returned back above 91.75. The nearest resistance level for the U.S. Dollar Index is located at 92.10. If the U.S. Dollar Index moves towards this level,  USD/CAD will get more support.

Today, U.S. reported that Pending Home Sales decreased by 1.1% month-over-month in October after falling by 2% in September. Analysts expected that Pending Home Sales would increase by 1%.

Meanwhile, Canada’s Building Permits decreased by 14.6% month-over-month in October while analysts forecasted that they would decline by 5%.

The above-mentioned economic reports indicated that the second wave of the virus has started to put some pressure on the housing market in both U.S. and Canada.

Technical Analysis

usd cad november 30 2020

USD to CAD made a serious attempt to settle below the support at November lows at 1.2930. However, the U.S. dollar has suddenly gained support on the foreign exchange market, and USD to CAD returned to the nearest resistance level at 1.2985.

If USD to CAD manages to settle above this level, it will get to the test of the next resistance at 1.3000. A move above 1.3000 will push USD to CAD towards the resistance at 1.3025. In case USD to CAD moves above the resistance at 1.3025, it will head towards the next resistance level near the 20 EMA at 1.3050.

On the support side, the nearest support level for USD to CAD is located at 1.2930. I’d note that no material levels were formed between 1.2930 and 1.2985 so USD to CAD may quickly get to another test of this level in case the right catalysts emerge.

If USD to CAD settles below the support at 1.2930, it will decline towards the next support level at 1.2900.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Stays Near The $45 Level While OPEC+ Starts Its Two-Day Meeting

Oil Video 30.11.20.

OPEC+ Weighs Its Options

OPEC+ has just started its two-day meeting where it will discuss its next moves. According to a recent Reuters report, OPEC+ is evaluating several potential scenarios.

The group may extend current production cuts for the first three or four months of 2021, or it may choose to gradually increase production from January 2021.

The four-month extension of current production cuts is the most bullish scenario for the oil market. At the same time, it is also the least probable option. Budgets of many OPEC+ members are stretched and they need to increase their revenues as soon as possible.

The three-month extension looks like the most probable scenario at this point as it will provide the necessary support to the market at a time when demand is still weaker than originally expected due to European lockdowns.

A decision to gradually increase oil production may put some pressure on oil prices as it will lead to higher supply from the very first month of 2021. Saudi Arabia will likely oppose this option.

Russia’s position is less clear. Before the meeting, Russia stated that it did not have strong differences with OPEC as in early 2020 but did not clarify whether it wanted to gradually increase production or supported the extension of current production cuts.

Oil Received Strong Support Near The $45 Level

Interestingly, oil managed to settle above the $45 level after the recent rally and has not yet suffered any material pullback. Most likely, oil gets support from those traders who believe that OPEC+ will do what’s right for the market and extend current production cuts for three or four months.

The upcoming trading sessions will likely be volatile as traders will react to rumors and leaks from the OPEC+ meeting. In the near term, OPEC will also react to inventory data which will indicate whether demand is hit by the second wave of the virus.

The recent inventory reports were mostly encouraging. While the latest API Crude Oil Stock Change report showed that crude inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, the market focused on EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report data which indicated that crude inventories declined by more than 0.7 million barrels.

The EIA data will be released soon after OPEC+ announces its decision and may amplify oil’s moves.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Remains Under Pressure At The Start Of The Week

Silver Video 30.11.20.

Silver Is Trying To Settle Below $22.00

Silver continues to lose ground as safe haven assets remain under pressure while the U.S. dollar is testing yearly lows.

The U.S. Dollar Index managed to get below the support at 91.75 and is currently trying to settle below 91.50. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will continue to move towards the next material support level at 91.

Typically, a weak U.S. dollar is bullish for most dollar-denominated commodities. However, the weakness of the American currency does little to help silver and gold price today as safe haven assets remain under pressure.

Gold is currently moving towards the major support level at $1750. Gold easily managed to get below the previous support at $1800 but the next support level wil likely be stronger. In addition, RSI has already entered the oversold territory so chances for a rebound are increasing. If gold manages to get back to the $1800 level, silver and other precious metals will get a boost.

Meanwhile, gold/silver ratio is trying to settle above the 80 level. A move above this level will open the way to the test of the next support at 80.80 which will be bearish for silver.

Technical Analysis

Silver november 30 2020

Silver gained strong downside momentum and is currently trying to settle below $22.00. If this attempt is successful, silver will decline towards the next support level at September lows at $21.65.

RSI has not yet entered the oversold territory so there is some room to gain downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge. If silver manages to settle below the support at $21.65, it will head towards the next support level at $21.35. It should be noted that there are no strong levels between $20.00 and $21.65 so silver may be very volatile if its continues its downside move.

On the upside, the nearest resistance level for silver is located at $22.40. If silver manages to settle above this level, it will head towards the next resistance at $22.60. A move above $22.60 will open the way to the test of the resistance at $22.90.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Stocks Retreat As Traders Take Profits After November Rally

A Busy Week Ahead

S&P 500 futures are losing ground in premarket trading as investors wait for new catalysts which could push stocks to new highs.

November was a great month for stocks so some traders and investors prefer to take some profits off the table near record highs.

The economic calendar is busy this week, and current market optimism will soon get tested by many economic reports. Today, the U.S. will release Pending Home Sales report which is expected to show that Pending Home Sales increased by 1% month-over-month in October.

This report will be followed by Manufacturing PMI report for November which will be published on Tuesday. Traders’ attention will shift to the job market on Wednesday when the U.S. will release ADP Employment Change report. Initial Jobless Claims report will be published on Thursday, followed by Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate reports on Friday.

Job market reports will likely have a significant impact on the market as they will indicate whether the economy continues to rebound despite the second wave of coronavirus.

U.S. Dollar Falls To New Lows

The U.S. Dollar Index managed to get below the support at the yearly lows at 91.75 and continues to move lower.

The U.S. dollar is under pressure as traders bet that Biden presidency will bring a huge stimulus package while the Fed will keep rates at the bottom for years.

The weak dollar may provide an additional boost for U.S. stocks and commodities. At this point, the main beneficiary of U.S. dollar’s weakness is copper which has managed to get to levels not seen since early 2013.

Interestingly, gold and silver remain under pressure despite the weak dollar as demand for safe haven assets decreased due to recovery hopes.

OPEC+ Begins Two-Day Negotiations

OPEC+ members will have two days to discuss their next move. At this point, the market expects that OPEC+ will extend current production cuts for the first three months of 2021. However, recent reports suggested that OPEC+ is also discussing a gradual increase of production.

WTI oil has recently made an attempt to settle below the psychologically important $45 level but failed to gain downside momentum. Oil will likely be very volatile in the upcoming trading sessions as traders wait for OPEC+ decision.

Meanwhile, oil-related stocks look ready to move lower at the start of today’s trading session as traders continue to take their profits after a massive rally in November.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Daily Forecast – Test Of Resistance At 0.7400

AUD/USD Video 30.11.20.

U.S. Dollar Continues To Lose Ground Against Australian Dollar

AUD/USD has recently made an attempt to settle above the resistance at 0.7400 while U.S. dollar remained under serious pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index declined below the support at the yearly lows at 91.75 and is trying to develop additional downside momentum. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the support at 71 which will be bullish for AUD/USD.

China has recently reported that NBS Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.4 in October to 52.1 in November, providing support to riskier assets on the foreign exchange market.

Tomorrow, China will report Caixin Manufacturing PMI which is projected to decrease from 53.6 to 53.5 but traders will expect a positive surprise. China is Australia’s main trading partner so positive economic data from China may provide additional support to AUD/USD.

AUD/USD traders will also follow the latest data on U.S. Pending Home Sales which will be published later today. Analysts expect that Pending Home Sales increased by 1% month-over-month in October. On a year-over-year basis, Pending Home Sales are projected to increase by 18.1%.

Technical Analysis

aud usd november 30 2020

AUD/USD managed to settle above the resistance at 0.7380 and made an attempt to get above the next resistance level at 0.7400. The resistance at 0.7400 is a strong obstacle on the way up for AUD/USD but the Australian dollar has good chances to continue its upside move.

In case AUD/USD settles above the resistance at 0.7400, it will get to the test of the next resistance level at September highs at 0.7415. A move above the resistance at 0.7415 will signal that AUD/USD is ready to develop additional upside momentum.

On the support side, the previous resistance level at 0.7380 will serve as the first support level for AUD/USD. If AUD/USD manages to settle below this level, it will head towards the next support at 0.7360.

The support at 0.7360 has been tested several times during recent trading sessions and proved its strength. If AUD/USD moves below the support at 0.7360, it will gain downside momentum and head towards the support at 0.7340.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Test Of Resistance At 1.1965

EUR/USD Video 30.11.20.

Euro Gained Strong Upside Momentum

EUR/USD managed to settle above the major resistance level at 1.1910 and is testing the next resistance at 1.1965 while the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently trying to settle below the yearly lows at 91.75. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will gain additional downside momentum and head towards the next material support level at 91 which will be bullish for EUR/USD.

The American currency is under serious pressure on the foreign exchange market because traders expect another U.S. stimulus package in early 2021. They also believe that the U.S. Fed will soon provide additional support to the economy. The main risk for dollar bears is that the trade becomes overcrowded which will increase the probability of getting squeezed on the way down.

Interestingly, EUR/USD managed to gain upside momentum despite the disappointing economic data for the Euro Area which was published on Friday. Consumer Confidence declined from -15.5 in October to -17.6 in November. Meanwhile, Industrial Sentiment declined from -9.2 to -10.1 while Services Sentiment decreased from -12.1 to -17.3.

Technical Analysis

eur usd november 30 2020

EUR/USD gained strong upside momentum and is trying to settle above the resistance at 1.1965. RSI is located in the moderate territory so there is plenty of room to gain additional momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If EUR/USD manages to settle above the resistance at 1.1965, it will move towards the psychologically important resistance level at 1.2000. EUR/USD made an attempt to settle above this level back in September but faced strong resistance and quickly declined below 1.1900.

This time, the potential test of the resistance at 1.2000 will likely have more chances to succeed as EUR/USD spent plenty of time near 1.1900, suggesting that there is established demand for EUR/USD near current levels.

On the support side, the previous resistance level at 1.1910 will likely serve as the first support level for EUR/USD. If EUR/USD moves below this level, it will head towards the next support level at 1.1880.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.