USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Another Attempt To Get Above 1.3200

USD/CAD Video 15.09.20.

Canadian Dollar Failed To Gain More Upside Momentum Despite Strong Oil

USD/CAD continues to trade below 1.3200 as the U.S. dollar is gaining ground against a broad basket of currencies while oil is moving higher due to production shutdowns in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

The U.S. Dollar Index was under pressure at the beginning of the day and tested support at 92.80. However, it reversed course after the release of U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production reports and is currently trying to settle above the 20 EMA at 93.10.

U.S. Industrial Production increased by 0.4% month-over-month compared to analyst consensus which called for growth of 1%. Manufacturing Production grew by 1% compared to analyst consensus of 1.2%.

In case the U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 20 EMA, it will have good chances to develop additional upside momentum which will be bullish for USD/CAD.

I’d note that trading action may be volatile ahead of Fed Interest Rate Decision which will be announced on Wednesday. Traders await additional commentary on Fed’s monetary policy after the central bank adopted an average inflation target of 2%.

If the Fed’s message is dovish enough, the U.S. dollar may find itself under increased pressure. However, it remains to be seen whether Fed can come up with additional stimulus in the near term.

Technical Analysis

usd cad september 15 2020

USD to CAD tested the support at 1.3135 but failed to gain more downside momentum and rebounded back above the 20 EMA at 1.3165.

In recent trading sessions, USD to CAD faced material resistance at 1.3200. In case USD to CAD manages to settle above this level, it will gain more upside momentum and head towards the next resistance at 1.3235.

If USD to CAD moves above the resistance at 1.3235, it will get to the test of the 50 EMA at 1.3255.

On the support side, the 20 EMA continues to serve as the nearest support level but the main support is located at 1.3135.

If USD to CAD manages to settle below the support at 1.3135, it will gain significant downside momentum and head towards the next support at 1.3050.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Gains Ground As Hurricane Sally Forces Oil Companies To Shut Down Production

Oil Video 15.09.20.

IEA Reduces Its 2020 Oil Demand Forecast

Yesterday, we discussed the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report which included a downward revision of OPEC’s oil demand forecast for 2020 and 2021.

Today, International Energy Agency (IEA) released its Oil Market Report which contained similar developments.

IEA stated that the rising number of new coronavirus cases put material pressure on the rebound of oil demand. As a result, IEA decided to reduce its estimate for oil demand growth in the second half of this year by 0.4 million barrels per day (bpd).

IEA noted several bearish developments. OECD crude stocks increased in July, returning closer to record levels. In addition, China slowed down its oil purchases for September and October.

IEA also stated that trading houses were searching for ships to store oil which means that they expect weak oil prices in the near term and want to sell their oil at a higher price in the future.

Both OPEC and IEA reports were clearly bearish for oil, and it looks like the main supportive factor for oil prices right now is Hurricane Sally.

U.S. Gulf of Mexico Oil Companies Are Once Again Forced To Shut Down Production

Hurricane Sally has already led to shutdowns of about 21% of U.S. Gulf of Mexico offshore oil production. Previously, Hurricane Laura pushed U.S. domestic oil production from 10.8 million bpd to 9.7 million bpd.

The latest EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report indicated that U.S domestic oil production rebounded from 9.7 million bpd to 10 million bpd but remained well below pre-hurricane levels.

As a result of the recent shutdowns, U.S. oil production may return closer to 9.7 million bpd. Tomorrow, EIA will provide new data on the state of the U.S. oil industry but it will not include the most recent developments.

At this point, it looks like Hurricane Sally will serve as a temporary bullish catalyst for oil. The current fundamental developments are alarming. While the world economic recovery continues, the recovery of demand for oil is not as fast as previously expected.

In addition, problems on the coronavirus front will continue to put pressure on aviation demand for the foreseeable future. Oil demand will not be able to recover to pre-pandemic levels without strong air travel demand.

Thus, it remains to be seen whether oil will get enough support to stay near current levels once U.S. production returns to pre-hurricane levels. Most likely, WTI oil will need additional positive catalysts to gain upside momentum and move above the $38 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Moves Towards Resistance At $27.75

Silver Video 15.09.20.

Silver Gained Additional Momentum Above $27.00

Silver managed to settle above $27.00 and continues its upside move as the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently trying to gain more downside momentum below the 93 level. The nearest support level for the U.S. Dollar Index is located at 92.80, and a move below this level will provide additional support for silver. A weaker U.S. dollar is bullish for silver as it makes it cheaper for buyers who have other currencies.

As industrial demand is an important component of the total demand for silver, strong Industrial Production data from China provided additional support to silver prices. A rebound in China’s Retail Sales provided hopes for increased jewelry consumption.

Gold was also boosted by the weaker U.S. dollar and managed to settle above the $1950 level. The nearest material resistance level for gold is located at $1975. If gold gets above this level, it will gain additional upside momentum and provide support to the whole precious metal segment.

Gold/silver ratio remains in the range between 71 and 73 but slowly trends lower. A move below the 71 level will open the way to the test of the recent lows at 69 which will be bullish for silver.

Technical Analysis

silver september 15 2020

Silver is currently trying to get to the test of the nearest resistance level at $27.75. If silver manages to settle above this level, it will gain more upside momentum and head towards the next resistance at $28.50.

A move above the resistance at $28.50 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at $28.90, which is the last significant resistance level before the major resistance at multi-year highs at $29.85.

On the support side, the 20 EMA will continue to serve as the nearest support level for silver. In recent trading sessions, silver consolidated near this level and made several attempts to gain more downside momentum. These attempts failed, and the support at the 20 EMA proved its strength.

If silver gets below the 20 EMA, it will experience increased downside momentum and head towards the next support level at the recent lows at $25.85.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. Stocks Set To Open Higher As Strong Data From China Supports World Markets

China’s Economic Rebound Boosts Stocks Across The Globe

Today, China reported that its Industrial Production increased by 5.6% year-over-year while Retail Sales managed to get into the positive territory and grew by 0.5%.

Unlike most other countries, China managed to contain the virus and its economic activity is increasing. Traders view China as a real-life example of what will happen in other economies when the virus is finally stopped.

Not surprisingly, strong economic data from China provided significant support to the world markets. S&P 500 futures have joined the trend and are gaining more than 0.5% in premarket trading.

Soon after the opening bell, U.S. will provide Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production reports for August. Industrial Production is expected to increase by 1% while Manufacturing Production is projected to grow by 1.2%. In case the reports show that the growth has stopped, the market may find itself under pressure.

Oil Prices Increase As Hurricane Sally Shuts Down 21% Of U.S. Gulf of Mexico Production

WTI oil prices shrugged off disappointing demand forecasts from OPEC and International Energy Agency (IEA) and moved closer to the $38 level as Hurricane Sally forced U.S. Gulf of Mexico producers to shut down oil production of about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The potential negative impact from Hurricane Sally is lower than the blow from the recent Hurricane Laura, but U.S. oil producers did not have enough time to bring their oil production to pre-hurricane levels.

In this light, oil-related stocks may get some support during today’s trading session although it remains to be seen if any gains will be sustainable or oil stocks will continue their previous downside trend.

UK Moves Towards No-Deal Brexit

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson achieved his first major victory on the way to breach the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement as the parliament voted for the proposed changes. This is just the first hurdle, and more debate is expected.

For now, the market reaction to the news is calm. However, a no-deal Brexit will likely present a serious problem for the world markets as it is expected to deal a short-term hit to the British economy at the time when it tries to recover from the blow dealt by the coronavirus pandemic.

Negotiations between UK and EU will likely intensify in the coming weeks so the Brexit story will continue to appear in the headlines and may have a serious impact on the markets.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Daily Forecast – U.S. Dollar Tries To Stabilize After Yesterday’s Sell-Off

USD/JPY Video 15.09.20.

Positive Economic Data From China May Put Some Pressure On The Yen

USD/JPY managed to settle below 106.00 and is trying to develop additional downside momentum as the U.S. dollar remains under pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has managed to get below the 20 EMA at 93.10 but received some support near 92.85. In case the U.S. Dollar Index moves below this level, the American currency will find itself under increased pressure which will be bearish for USD/JPY.

Meanwhile, better-than-expected economic data from China may put some pressure on the yen which is one of the main safe haven currencies as positive news from one of the world’s biggest economies increase appetite for riskier assets.

China’s Retail Sales have managed to grow by 0.5% year-over-year in August, suggesting that consumer activity was getting back to normal. China’s Industrial Production also showed strength, growing by 5.6% year-over-year.

There are no important economic reports scheduled to be released in Japan today so USD/JPY traders will focus on U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production reports which are expected to show that U.S. economic recovery continues, although at a slower pace.

Technical Analysis

usd jpy september 15 2020

USD/JPY gained material downside momentum once it was able to get below the 20 EMA at 106.05 and tries to continue its downside move. The nearest support level for USD/JPY has emerged at 105.55.

In case USD/JPY manages to settle below this level, it will gain additional downside momentum and get to the test of the major support level at 105.30.

A move below the support at 105.30 will signal that USD/JPY will try to establish a new downside trend. In this scenario, USD/JPY will head towards the next support level at 104.70.

On the upside, the previous support at the 20 EMA will serve as the first resistance level for USD/JPY. A move above this level will push USD/JPY to test the next resistance at the 50 EMA at 106.20.

If USD/JPY moves above the 50 EMA, it will gain additional upside momentum and get to the test of the next resistance level at 106.55.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Resistance At 1.1910 In Sight

EUR/USD Video 15.09.20.

Euro Continues Its Upside Move

EUR/USD is trying to get to the test of the nearest resistance level at 1.1910 as the U.S. dollar continues to lose ground against a broad basket of currencies.

Investor mood is lifted by positive economic data from China which provided support to riskier assets. China’s Industrial Production increased by 5.6% in August compared to analyst consensus which called for growth of 5.1%. Meanwhile, China’s Retail Sales have finally shown growth of 0.5% after remaining depressed in recent months.

The positive news from China may put more pressure on the American currency and push the U.S. Dollar Index closer to the next major support level at 92.50. If this happens, EUR/USD will have a good chance to settle above the nearest resistance level at 1.1910.

Today, the U.S. will provide Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production reports for August. Industrial Production is expected to grow by 1% on a month-over-month basis while Manufacturing Production is projected to increase by 1.2%. Any weakness in these reports may put additional pressure on the American currency.

In Euro Area, traders will focus on the upcoming release of ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for September. The key question is whether the previous upside trend of this index will continue despite the worsening situation on the coronavirus front in Europe.

Technical Analysis

eur usd september 15 2020

EUR/USD continues to gain ground and looks ready to test the nearest resistance level at 1.1910. If this test is successful, EUR/USD will gain more upside momentum and head towards the next resistance at 1.1965.

A move above 1.1965 will provide EUR/USD with an opportunity to get to the test of the psychologically important resistance level at 1.2000.

On the support side, the nearest support level for EUR/USD is located at the 20 EMA at 1.1840. If EUR/USD gets below this support level, it will gain downside momentum and head towards the next major support level at 1.1765.

From a big picture point of view, EUR/USD remains in a strong upside trend. The recent attempt to settle below the 20 EMA did not yield any results, and EUR/USD quickly rebounded back above this important level. Currently, EUR/USD maintains solid chances to get to the test of September highs at 1.2000.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Test Of Resistance At 1.2880

GBP/USD Video 15.09.20.

British Pound Tries To Develop Additional Upside Momentum

GBP/USD is currently trying to settle above 1.2850 as the U.S. dollar remains under pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

Yesterday, GBP/USD made an attempt to gain more upside momentum above 1.2900 but this attempt did not succeed due to worries about a messy Brexit.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to win an initial approval for his plan to breach the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and break the international law “in a limited way”. However, this is not a final victory for Johnson, and more debate will follow.

UK has just provided Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate reports. In August, Claimant Count Change increased by 73,700 while analysts expected an increase of 100,000. Meanwhile, Unemployment Rate increased from 3.9% in June to 4.1% in July, fully in line with the analyst consensus.

While the market awaits interest rate decisions from the U.S. Fed and the Bank of England which are due to be announced later this week, GBP/USD traders will continue to focus on Brexit news and the general direction of the American currency.

The U.S. Dollar Index managed to settle below the support at the 20 EMA at 93.10 and is trying to develop downside momentum below the 93 level. In case the U.S. Dollar Index gets to the test of the next material support level at 92.50, GBP/USD will get an additional boost.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd september 15 2020

GBP/USD managed to get above 1.2850 and is testing the nearest resistance level at 1.2880. In case GBP/USD settles above this level, it will head towards the next resistance level at the 50 EMA at 1.3000, although it may also face resistance near the recent highs at 1.2920.

A move above the 50 EMA will open the way to the test of the resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.3035. The resistance area between the 50 EMA and the 20 EMA is set to be strong since a move above this area will signal that GBP/USD is ready to get back to the previous upside trend.

On the support side, the nearest support level is located at 1.2815. If GBP/USD moves below this support level, it will likely gain additional downside momentum and decline towards the next support at the recent lows at 1.2750.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – U.S. Dollar Is Mostly Flat Against Canadian Dollar

USD/CAD Video 14.09.20.

Weak Oil Puts Some Pressure On The Canadian Currency

USD/CAD failed to settle above 1.3200 as the U.S. dollar found itself under pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index managed to get below the 20 EMA at 93.10 and is currently trying to settle below 92.90. The nearest minor support level for the U.S. Dollar Index is located at the recent lows at 92.70, while the closest significant support is at 92.50.

If the U.S. Dollar Index gains additional downside momentum and heads to 92.50, USD/CAD will find itself under material pressure.

Meanwhile, WTI oil failed to gain more upside momentum amid fears about the pace of the oil demand recovery, putting some pressure on commodity-related currencies including the Canadian dollar.

There are no important economic reports scheduled to be released today in the U.S. and Canada so USD/CAD trading dynamics will mostly depend on general market sentiment.

Judging by today’s strength of Japanese yen and the solid performance of the precious metals segment, the market has certain fears about the future trajectory of the economic recovery. As demand for safe haven assets increases, the U.S. dollar may stay strong against the riskier Canadian dollar even when the American currency is under pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

Technical Analysis

usd cad september 14 2020

USD to CAD continues to trade above the nearest support level at the 20 EMA at 1.3160. In case USD to CAD is able to settle above 1.3200, it will gain more upside momentum and head to the test of the nearest resistance level at 1.3235.

A move above the resistance at 1.3235 will allow USD to CAD to test the major resistance at the 50 EMA at 1.3260.

On the support side, a move below the 20 EMA at 1.3160 will present a serious problem for the bulls as USD to CAD will have a good chance to develop downside momentum.

The next support level is located at 1.3135. If USD to CAD manages to settle below this level, it will head towards the next material support level at 1.3050.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Remains Under Pressure As OPEC Cuts Its Oil Demand Forecast

Oil Video 14.09.20.

OPEC Expects Weaker Oil Demand In 2020 And 2021

OPEC has just released its new Monthly Oil Market Report which indicated that it decided to cut the 2020 global oil demand forecast by 0.4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 90.2 million bpd.

The main reasons for this decision were weaker demand in India, which is currently recording more than 90,000 new cases of coronavirus each day, and problems with transportation-related demand.

Israel has just decided to impose a second lockdown, highlighting the uncertainty of oil demand recovery. If other countries that struggle to contain the virus follow Israel’s example, oil will find itself under serious pressure.

OPEC has also cut its 2021 oil demand forecast by 0.4 million bpd and now expects that global oil demand will average 96.9 million bpd in the next year.

At the same time, OPEC has increased its 2020 oil production forecast due to production recovery in U.S., Canada and Latin America.

The picture painted by OPEC looks rather bearish as demand remains under pressure while supply starts to increase. In these conditions, the oil market will continue to have problems with excessive inventory levels.

Most likely, OPEC+ countries will have to keep their current production levels for more months than previously expected in order to improve the supply/demand balance of the oil market.

Tropical Storm Sally Provides Some Support To Oil Prices

Tropical storm Sally forced a shutdown of some offshore oil platforms in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and provided some support to oil prices.

The most recent EIA Weekly Petroleum Status report indicated that U.S. oil production has not fully recovered from Hurricane Laura, and additional problems with tropical storm Sally may put more pressure on U.S. domestic oil production in the near term.

Baker Hughes Rig Count indicated that the number of U.S. drilling rigs declined by 2 to 254 while the number of U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell by 1 to 180. At this point, the number of U.S. drilling rigs has rebounded closer to levels seen before Hurricane Laura. However, latest rig count data does not show signs of a new upside trend which would have been bearish for oil prices.

It remains to be seen whether Sally will have any notable impact on the oil market as traders will likely stay focused on worsening forecasts for oil demand recovery.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Makes Another Attempt To Settle Above $27.00

Silver Video 14.09.20.

Silver Enjoys Solid Upside Momentum At The Beginning Of The Week

Silver is trying to settle above $27.00 as the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies while fears about a second wave of lockdowns provide additional support to precious metals.

The U.S. Dollar Index managed to get below the 20 EMA at 93.10 and is trying to settle below the 93 level as the British pound shows strength against the American currency. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will gain more downside momentum which will be bullish for silver.

Israel decided to a impose a second lockdown, increasing fears of another wave of lockdowns in countries that struggle to contain the virus. Safe haven assets like Japanese yen and precious metals received additional support thanks to this development.

Gold continues its attempts to settle above the 20 EMA at $1945. If gold manages to get to the test of the psychologically important $2000 level, the whole precious metal segment will get a material boost.

Meanwhile, gold/silver ratio remains in a range between 71 and 73. Gold/silver ratio needs to stay below the 20 EMA at 72.80 to have a chance to test the recent lows near the 69 level, which will be bullish for silver.

Technical Analysis

silver september 14 2020

Silver managed to stay above the key support level at the 20 EMA at $26.80 and is trying to gain more upside momentum above $27.00. If this attempt is successful, silver will head towards the next resistance level at $27.75.

RSI is in the moderate territory so silver has plenty of room to gain more upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge. A move above the resistance at $27.75 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at $28.50.

If silver is able to settle above the resistance at $28.50, it will head towards the next resistance at $28.90.

On the support side, the nearest support for silver is still located at the 20 EMA level. A move below the 20 EMA may lead to a sell-off, pushing silver closer to the next support level at the recent lows at $25.85.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. Stocks Set To Open Higher As The Week Starts With Several Big Deals

NVIDIA Buys Arm Limited While Gilead Sciences Announces Purchase Of Immunomedics

Gilead Sciences announced its intention to buy Immunomedics for $21 billion in order to boost its position in cancer treatment. Shares of Immunomedics are gaining more than 100% in premarket trading after this announcement.

Meanwhile, NVIDIA announced that it would buy chip designer Arm Limited from Japan’s SoftBank. This deal may have a significant impact on the chip market, and shares of Nvidia are gaining more than 5% ahead of the market open.

Oracle is said to have reached an agreement with ByteDance for a partnership with TikTok. According to reports, Microsoft will not pursure the purchase of TikTok’s U.S. operations due to restrictions imposed by the Chinese government. The structure of Oracle’s deal with TikTok is unclear at this point.

S&P 500 futures are gaining ground in premarket trading as traders cheer the activity on the M&A side.

Israel Decides To Impose A Second Lockdown

Israel will impose a second lockdown starting this Friday to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The lockdown is expected to last three weeks.

Israel’s new lockdown raises fears of similar measures in Europe where some countries are struggling to contain the second wave of the virus.

This development is bearish for oil as lockdowns reduce demand for energy. In addition, fears of another wave of lockdowns may put more pressure on oil and cause a sell-off.

At the same time, this development is bullish for safe haven assets like precious metals. Gold and silver are already set to start the week on a positive note.

Traders Prepare For Fed Interest Rate Decision On September 16

The U.S. Fed is set to announce its Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday. While the Fed is expected to leave the rate unchanged, traders will wait for additional clarifications on Fed’s policy.

Recently, the Fed decided to adopt an average inflation target of 2%. This move will allow the Fed to keep rates low even if inflation starts to increase.

The market will wait for signs that Fed will use additional measures to support the economy. If the Fed’s commentary is dovish enough, the U.S. dollar will find itself under pressure while stocks will get more support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Daily Forecast – Support At 105.80 In Sight

USD/JPY Video 14.09.20.

U.S. Dollar Finds Itself Under Pressure At The Start Of The Week

USD/JPY is trying to settle below the 20 EMA at 106.10 as the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

Currently, the U.S. Dollar Index is testing the major support level at the 20 EMA at 93.10. If the U.S. Dollar Index settles below the 20 EMA, it may gain strong downside momentum and head towards the next support level at 92.50. This scenario will be bearish for USD/JPY.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga has easily won the ruling party leadership elections and is set to win the parliamentary vote on Wednesday and become Japan’s Prime Minister.

Suga is expected to continue the economic policies of the previous Prime Minister Shinzo Abe so his election should not have a big impact on USD/JPY trading dynamics.

Today, Japan reported that its Industrial Production increased by 8.7% month-over-month in July compared to analyst consensus which called for growth of 8%. Meanwhile, Reuters Tankan Index, which measures the mood of Japan’s manufacturers, remained deep in the negative territory.

This week is set to be very interesting for USD/JPY since both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will make their interest rate decisions. The Fed will announce its Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday while the Bank of Japan will make its Interest Rate Decision on Thursday. Both central banks are expected to push dovish messages and promise to use all available measures to support economic growth.

Technical Analysis

usd jpy september 14 2020

USD/JPY has managed to get below the 20 EMA at 106.10 and is trying to gain more downside momentum.

The nearest support level for USD/JPY is located at 105.80. If USD/JPY is able to get below this support level, it will head towards the major support at 105.30.

A move below 105.30 will signal that USD/JPY is ready to gain additional downside momentum. In this case, USD/JPY will head towards the support at 104.70.

On the upside, the 20 EMA at 106.10 will likely serve as the first resistance level for USD/JPY. If USD/JPY gets above the 20 EMA, it will find itself back in the range between the 20 EMA and the 50 EMA at 106.25. A move above the 50 EMA will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 106.55.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro Starts The Week On A Positive Note

EUR/USD Video 14.09.20.

U.S. Dollar Continues To Lose Ground Against The Euro

EUR/USD continues its attempts to gain more upside momentum above the 20 EMA at 1.1835 as the U.S. dollar is losing some ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index did not manage to get above the nearest resistance at 93.50 in recent trading sessions but remains above the key support level at the 20 EMA at 93.10.

If the U.S. Dollar Index gains more downside momentum, EUR/USD will have a good chance to get to the test of the nearest resistance level at 1.1910.

Today, traders will have a chance to evaluate Euro Area Industrial Production report for July. On a month-over-month basis, Industrial Production is expected to grow by 4%. On a year-over-year basis, Industrial Production is projected to remain under significant pressure and decline by 8.2%.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its Interest Rate Decision. The Interest Rate is expected to stay unchanged and traders will focus on any additional commentary from the Fed.

Previously, the Fed adopted an average inflation target of 2% which would allow it to keep rates low even if inflation gets above the 2% level. Any signs that the Fed is even more dovish than expected will likely put pressure on the American currency.

Technical Analysis

eur usd september 14 2020

EUR/USD has managed to settle above the 20 EMA at 1.1835 and continues its rebound.

The nearest resistance level for EUR/USD is located at 1.1910. If EUR/USD manages to settle above this level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.1965.

A move above the resistance at 1.1965 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at September highs at 1.2000.

On the support side, the 20 EMA serves as the nearest important support level for EUR/USD.

If EUR/USD gets below this level, it will likely gain more downside momentum and head towards the next support level at 1.1765.

In case EUR/USD moves below the support at 1.1765, it will get to the test of the 50 EMA at 1.1740. I’d expect plenty of interest at the 50 EMA level since a move below the 50 EMA will signal that EUR/USD is ready to establish a strong downside trend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Support At 1.2750 Stays Strong

GBP/USD Video 14.09.20.

British Pound Tries To Gain More Upside Momentum

GBP/USD continues its attempts to settle above 1.2800 as the U.S. dollar is losing some ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index remains above the 20 EMA at 93.10 but fails to gain more upside momentum. If the U.S. Dollar Index gets below the 20 EMA, it will likely gain more downside momentum, pushing GBP/USD higher.

There are no important economic reports scheduled to be released in U.S. and UK today so GBP/USD trading dynamics will mostly depend on general market sentiment and Brexit news.

Today, riskier assets got a boost from positive economic news from China. China’s Housing Index indicated that house prices increased by 4.8% year-over-year and continued their steady growth.

There were no significant developments on the Brexit front over the weekend. Many observers remain shocked by the British plans to break the international law “in a limited way”. While the probability of hard Brexit increases day by day, the market still hopes that EU and UK will manage to reach consensus on the divorce deal. If this does not happen, GBP/USD will find itself under additional pressure.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd september 14 2020

GBP/USD managed to find support just above 1.2750 and tries to gain more upside momentum above 1.2800.

The recent downside move was very fast so there are significant gaps between levels. The nearest resistance level for GBP/USD is located at 1.2880.

If GBP/USD manages to settle above this level, it will gain more upside momentum and head towards the next major resistance level at the 50 EMA at 1.3000.

On the support side, the nearest support for GBP/USD is located near the recent lows at 1.2750. If GBP/USD moves below this level, it will head towards the next support level at 1.2650.

From a big picture point of view, GBP/USD tries to rebound from a significant support level at 1.2750. GBP/USD managed to settle above 1.2750 back in July, and a move below this level will erase all progress that was made in recent months. If this happens, GBP/USD will likely find itself under increased pressure.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Strong Inflation Reports Provide Support To U.S. Dollar

USD/CAD Video 11.09.20.

Canadian Dollar Remains Mostly Flat Against The U.S. Dollar Ahead Of The Weekend

USD/CAD is trying to settle above 1.3200 as the U.S. dollar is flat against a broad basket of currencies while oil is gaining some ground ahead of the weekend.

The U.S. Dollar Index has managed to stay above the 20 EMA at 93.10 and is trying to gain more upside momentum. The nearest resistance for the U.S. Dollar Index is located at 93.50, and a move above this level will be bullish for USD/CAD.

Today, the U.S. provided inflation data for August. Both Inflation Rate and Core Inflation Rate were stronger than analyst expectations which is rather bullish for the U.S. dollar.

However, it remains to be seen whether the recent inflation data will be able to provide significant support to the American currency as the Fed has adopted an average inflation target of 2% and is set to let inflation run above 2% for months before taking any serious action.

Technical Analysis

usd cad september 11 2020

USD to CAD has managed to settle above the 20 EMA at 1.3160 and is trying to get above 1.3200. If this attempt is successful, USD to CAD will head towards the nearest resistance level at 1.3235.

Most likely, USD to CAD will face significant resistance at 1.3235 as it has recently made two attempts to settle above this level, and both attempts yielded no results.

A move above 1.3235 will provide USD to CAD with an opportunity to get to the test of the next resistance level at the 50 EMA at 1.3265. If USD to CAD manages to settle above 1.3265, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.3330.

On the support side, the nearest support level for USD to CAD is located at the 20 EMA at 1.3160. This is a very important level for USD to CAD as a move below the 20 EMA will signal that USD to CAD has lost upside momentum.

If this happens, USD to CAD will head to the next material support level at 1.3135. A move below 1.3135 will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3050.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Managed To Stay Above $37 Despite Worries About Demand

Oil Video 11.09.20.

U.S. Domestic Oil Production Rises To 10 Million Barrels Per Day

The latest EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, which was published on Thursday, indicated that crude inventories increased by 2 million barrels, 1 million barrels less than indicated by API Crude Oil Stock Change report which showed a crude inventory build of roughly 3 million.

Gasoline inventories decreased by 3 million barrels while distallate fuel inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels.

Imports increased by 0.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and averaged 5.4 million bpd, playing a major role in the total increase of crude inventories.

Meanwhile, the U.S. domestic oil production has started to recover from hurricane-related shutdowns.  Oil production increased from 9.7 million bpd in the previous week to 10 million. Production is still below the pre-hurricane level of 10.8 million bpd.

It should be noted that U.S. oil producers have significant experience with re-starting production after hurricanes so domestic oil production will soon come back closer to previous levels.

In this light, oil demand growth is required to avoid an increase in inventory levels which will be bearish for oil. Unfortunately for bulls, the latest data on gasoline demand is not inspiring.

Gasoline Demand Continues To Drop

EIA reported that U.S. gasoline demand declined from 8.79 million bpd to 8.39 million bpd in the week ending September 4, 2020. In the week ending August 21, 2020, gasoline demand was 9.16 million bpd so it suffered a very significant decline in just several weeks.

Some analysts believe that the previous decline in gasoline demand (from 9.16 million bpd to 8.79 million bpd) was caused by hurricanes and the related disruption, but the second significant decline in a row is very disturbing for the bulls.

A year ago, gasoline demand stood at 9.81 million bpd, so current demand is lower by as much as 1.42 million bpd.

At this point, oil is trying to stabilize after the major sell-off so it may temporarily ignore the developments on the gasoline demand front as it recovers from an oversold condition. Longer-term, the softness of gasoline demand may present a serious problem for the oil market.

While the gasoline demand data is alarming, it remains to be seen whether oil will be able to get below the recent lows in the upcoming trading sessions as oil did not have any material pullback since early June and many traders have likely waited for an opportunity to scoop oil futures contracts at lower prices.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Tries To Gain More Ground Ahead Of The Weekend

Silver Video 11.09.20.

Silver Tries To Stay Above The 20 EMA

Silver made an attempt to settle below the 20 EMA at $26.75 but managed to stay above this key support level as the U.S. dollar remained under some pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has managed to stay above its 20 EMA at 93.10 but stays well below the nearest resistance level at 93.50. The U.S. dollar may get some additional support from strong U.S. inflation numbers since both Core Inflation Rate and Inflation Rate  for August were higher than analyst expectations.

If the U.S. Dollar Index continues its rebound, silver will likely dip below the 20 EMA and gain more downside momentum.

Meanwhile, gold has also managed to stay above its 20 EMA at $1945 and maintains chances to gain more momentum and get to the test of the psychologically important $2000 level. If this happens, silver will get a boost.

Gold/silver ratio is still stuck in a rather tight range between 71 and 73. Gold/silver ratio’s 20 EMA is at 72.85, and a move above this level will be bearish for silver.

Technical Analysis

silver september 11 2020

Silver continues to trade close to the $27 level and will likely remain sensitive to the trading dynamics of the American currency.

If silver stays above the 20 EMA, it will have a good chance to develop more upside momentum and get to the test of the next resistance level at $27.75. Yesterday, silver tried to move towards this level but its uspide move was stopped near $27.50 by the sudden rebound of the U.S. dollar.

In case silver manages to settle above the resistance at $27.75, it will gain more upside momentum and head towards the test of the next resistance level at $28.50.

A move above $28.50 will provide silver with a chance to test the next resistance at $28.90.

On the support side, the 20 EMA remains the nearest support level for silver. If silver manages to get below this level, it will gain downside momentum and head towards the test of the next support level at $25.85.

If silver moves below the support at $25.85, it will head towards the next support level at $24.95.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. Stocks Set To Open Higher As Oracle Earnings Provide Support To Tech Shares

Oracle Easily Beats Analyst Estimates

S&P 500 futures look ready to rebound after yesterday’s sell-off as investor mood is lifted by better-than-expected earnings from Oracle.

The company benefited from increased usage of its cloud services and beat analyst expectations, reporting revenue of $9.37 billion and GAAP earnings of $0.72 per share.

This performance provided support to leading tech stocks like Apple or Facebook which had a tough session yesterday but are gaining ground in today’s premarket trading.

Tech stocks’ trading dynamics are very important for S&P 500 due to their huge market capitalization so a rebound in the tech space will provide significant support to the market.

Brexit Drama Continues

Brexit is set to be a major source of uncertainty for the world markets in the upcoming weeks. UK has announced its plans to modify the existing Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and break the international law, while EU demanded that UK abandoned such plans.

Both sides are increasing their preparations for a no-deal Brexit which may send shock waves across the world markets.

The British pound continues to fall but it looks like all risks are not yet priced in the current GBP/USD exchange rate.

A continuation of the existing trend will provide additional support for the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. Dollar Index will have a chance to settle above the nearest resistance at 93.50. Stronger dollar may serve as an additional bearish catalyst for U.S. stocks.

Prices Rise Faster Than Expected

U.S. has just provided inflation data for August. Core Inflation Rate increased by 1.7% on a year-over-year basis compared to analyst consensus of 1.6%. On a month-over-month basis, Core Inflation Rate grew by 0.4% while the analyst consensus called for growth of just 0.2%.

Inflation Rate grew by 1.3% year-over-year while analysts expected growth of 1.2%. Month-over-month, Inflation Rate increased by 0.4% compared to analyst consensus of 0.3%.

Strong inflation will likely provide more support to the U.S. dollar and may put some pressure on stocks.

The U.S. Fed has recently adopted an average inflation target of 2% which will allow it to keep rates low even if inflation rises above 2%.

If inflation reaches the 2% level faster than expected, markets will start to price in the probability of a rate hike, which may serve as a significant bearish catalyst for stocks.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Daily Forecast – U.S. Dollar Continues Its Attempts To Get Above The 50 EMA

USD/JPY Video 11.09.20.

Range-Bound Trading Continues

USD/JPY remains in a very tight range between the support at the 20 EMA at 106.10 and the resistance at the 50 EMA at 106.25 as the U.S. dollar is mostly flat against a broad basket of currencies.

Yesterday, the U.S. Dollar Index found itself under significant pressure after the release of disappointing U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims reports.

However, it managed to find support at 92.70 and rebounded back above the 93 level. Currently, the U.S. Dollar Index is trying to stay above the 20 EMA at 93.10. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will gain more upside momentum which will be bullish for USD/JPY.

While the recent employment reports indicated that the U.S. economic recovery may have encountered its first material problems, the situation in Japan’s economy is not looking better.

A recent survey indicated that Japanese companies planned to cut their capital expenditure by as much as 6.8% in the current fiscal year. Obviously, economic recovery cannot be robust without a healthy increase in capital spending.

Today, traders will focus on the upcoming U.S. inflation reports. Core Inflation Rate is expected to stay unchanged at 1.6% while Inflation Rate is projected to increase from 1% to 1.2% on a year-over-year basis.

Technical Analysis

usd jpy september 11 2020

USD/JPY is still trading in the range between the 20 EMA and the 50 EMA. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above the 50 EMA, it will head towards the next material resistance level at 107.00. Along the way, USD/JPY may face some resistance at 106.55.

On the support side, a move below the 20 EMA will open the way to the test of the next significant support level at 105.30. USD/JPY may also get some support near the recent lows at 105.80.

From a big picture point of view, USD/JPY remains stuck in a very tight trading range. Most likely, USD/JPY will need additional catalysts to get out of the range and develop some momentum. While a move out of this range may be fast, near-term perspectives of USD/JPY will be still limited by very strong levels at 105.30 and 107.00.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Support At 1.1830 Stays Strong

EUR/USD Video 11.09.20.

Euro Tries To Continue Its Upside Move

EUR/USD is currently trying to stay above the nearest support at the 20 EMA at 1.1830 as the U.S. dollar remains mostly flat against a broad basket of currencies.

Yesterday, the European Central Bank made a decision to leave its interest rate unchanged. ECB promised to continue purchases under its pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) and also stated that it would keep rates at current or lower levels until inflation gets closer to 2%.

However, ECB did not adopt an average inflation target of 2%. In addition, ECB commented that while it was looking at the exchange rate, there was no specific target for the euro. These comments sent the euro higher, and EUR/USD tested the resistance at 1.1910.

Euro Area inflation is currently in the negative territory, and there is plenty of work to do in order to bring it back to at least 1%. In this light, Euro Area interest rates may stay low for many years, just like the U.S. interest rates.

It remains to be seen whether traders will continue to bet on the rise of the euro in this situation. The leading world central banks are set to keep their interest rates at rock bottom for a long time so traders’ focus may ultimately shift to economic data.

Technical Analysis

eur usd september 11 2020

EUR/USD is trying to gain more upside momentum above the 20 EMA at 1.1830. If this attempt is successful, EUR/USD will head towards the test of the next resistance level at 1.1910.

A move above the resistance at 1.1910 will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 1.1965. If EUR/USD gets above 1.1965, it will head towards September highs at 1.2000.

On the support side, the nearest support level for EUR/USD is located at the 20 EMA at 1.1830. If EUR/USD manages to settle below this level, it will head towards the next support at 1.1765. This support level has been tested several trading sessions ago and proved its strength.

A move below the support at 1.1765 will provide EUR/USD with a chance to test the next support at the 50 EMA at 1.1730.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.