Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Overcoming $1768.00 Puts Gold in Extremely Bullish Position

Gold is trading at a multi-year high at the mid-session on Thursday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a massive stimulus package to combat the economic toll of the coronavirus pandemic.

The precious metal opened the U.S. session sharply higher then accelerated to the upside after the Fed rolled out a broad, $2.3 trillion effort to bolster local governments and small and mid-sized businesses in its latest move to keep the U.S. economy intact as the country battles the coronavirus pandemic.

At 17:51 GMT, June Comex gold is trading $1739.70, up $55.40 or +3.29%.

In economic news, earlier in the session, data showed the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits in the last three weeks has blown pat 15 million, with weekly new claims topping 6 million for the second straight time last week as the pandemic has abruptly grounded the country to halt.

In response to the surge in unemployment, the U.S. government is likely to pass another stimulus measure for out of work Americans. This move will also be supportive for gold prices.

Daily June Comex Gold

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the trend indicator chart. A trade through $1742.60 signaled a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down if sellers take out the last main bottom at $1576.00.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $1670.70 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

Short-Term Outlook

The next upside target is a steep uptrending Gann angle at $1768.00. Crossing to the strong side of this Gann angle and sustaining the move will put the market in an extremely bullish position.

On the downside, the nearest support angle comes in at $1672.00. It’s only been tested once. If it fails then look for the market to possibly retreat into a pair of uptrending Gann angles at $1624.00 and $1597.00.

Since the trend is up, buyers are likely to continue to come in on breaks into the angles. If the trend changes to down then it means that investors are looking for value. Professionals don’t like to chase new highs so we’re going to see periodic short-term corrections. However, the fundamentals support a long-term bullish outlook. The short-term outlook will be determined by traders who are willing to play both sides of the market.

Crude Oil Price Update – Sellers Stop Rally at $27.99 – $30.04 Retracement Zone

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures surged as high as 12% earlier in the session on reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia had reached a deal on a deep output cut, according to Reuters, which cited two sources, and that the cuts could reportedly be as high as 20 million barrels per day.

However, those gains could not be sustained as traders awaited confirmation of the deal as well as key details, such as how the cuts would be divided, as well as how long they might be in place.

At 16:20 GMT, May WTI crude oil is trading $26.10, up $1.01 or +4.03%. This is down from an intraday high of $28.36.

Daily May WTI Crude Oil

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, prices have stagnated for four sessions as traders awaited the outcome of the OPEC+ video conference scheduled last Sunday.

A trade through $29.13 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through the last main bottom at $19.27.

The main range is $36.70 to $19.27. Its retracement zone at $27.99 to $30.04 is resistance. This zone stopped the buying at $29.13 on April 3 and again earlier today at $28.36. Clearly, this zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $19.27 to $29.13. Its retracement zone is $24.20 to $23.04. It provided support on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at $26.10, the direction of the May WTI crude oil market the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at $26.20.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $26.20 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overcoming the uptrending Gann angle at $27.27 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

Crossing to the strong side of the 50% level at $27.99 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration into $29.13, followed by the main Fibonacci level at $30.04.

In order to show real strength, the buying is going to have to be strong enough to close above $30.04 today.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $26.20 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a late session break into $24.20. Since the main trend is up, buyers could try to reestablish support at this level later in the session.

Side Notes

Basically, the major resistance is $27.99 to $30.04 and the major support is $24.20 to $23.04.

Even if there is a deal, gains are likely to be limited because of the demand destruction caused by the impact of the coronavirus.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Rally After Federal Reserve Promises To Buy Everything

The S&P 500 initially pulled back during the trading session on Thursday but then rallied towards the 50 day EMA to pull back. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level is also right there as well, so I think there is a whole host of reasons to think that perhaps the S&P 500 could struggle here. That being said though, there has been an extraordinarily strong push to the upside during the day and a close well above the 2800 level could open up the door to the 2850 level, followed by the 200 day EMA which is nearly 2950 level.

S&P 500 Video 10.04.20

Looking at this chart, the pullback makes quite a bit of sense, but at this point it’s difficult to imagine that trading is going to be easy one way or the other. At this point, the market looks very likely to see noisy actions, and therefore you should keep your position size relatively small as its trouble just waiting to happen. Overall, the markets do look as if they’re trying to find an excuse to go higher, but quite frankly we are still only at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, so it’s going to be difficult to see how we simply just slice through the upside. Quite frankly, with the noise out there, you can expect a lot of troubles out there in order to cause headaches for everybody trading. That being said, the weekly close will be scrutinized and could give us hints as to where we go for the next couple hundred pips.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Test Highs

Silver markets rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the 50 day EMA again, but pulling back a bit from the $16.00 level which is starting to look more and more like serious resistance. With that being the case, expect choppier back and forth behavior but I do think that the longer-term trajectory is still to the upside when it comes to silver and precious metals in general. With that being the case, if we can break above the $16.00 level it’s likely that the market will break higher and go looking towards the 200 day EMA, possibly the $17.00 level after that.

SILVER Video 10.04.20

The size of the candle is of course something to pay attention to and the closer we close to the $16 level, the more likely we are to see follow-through. If we get that follow-through, then it will be more of a grind higher. Having said that, if we pull back from here, I think that the $15.00 level will continue to offer plenty of support as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and of course previous resistance as well as support. With this, I anticipate that the next day or two will probably be more of a back-and-forth type of market, so keep in mind that we may bounce around between the 15 and $16 levels respectively. I expect a lot of noise, but I do think that eventually the buyers will win the day. Short-term charts should be used within the confines of these areas.

Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Get Bank Gains Waiting for OPEC

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, but then gave back the gains as traders are starting to worry about whether or not OPEC will cut enough. At this point, the market is likely to be very noisy, and needless to say could cause a lot of volatility due to the fact that the $30 level above is massive resistance, just as the $25 area is the beginning of support down to the $24 level. At this point, if we break above the $30 level, it’s likely that the market will make a move towards $34. However, if we break down below the $24 level, the market will then go looking towards the $20 level.

Crude Oil Video 10.04.20

Brent

Brent markets initially tried to rally as well but struggled above the $35 level. It’s not until OPEC makes its decision that traders will be able to put in big-money door, but at this point I think it’s setting up for an interesting move, as a daily close above $36 could send this market to look at the $40 level. The $40 level coincides nicely with the 50 day EMA and the bottom of the massive gap that you see on the chart. Ultimately, the market breaks down below the $32.50 level it’s likely that we go to the $30 level. Underneath there, the market could open up all the way to the $25 level after that. One thing is for sure, we are about to get a move.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Canadian Dollar Gains Ground After Fed Initiates A $2.3 Trillion Program

USD/CAD Video 09.04.20.

Uncertainty Over OPEC+ Deal Prevents Canadian Dollar From More Upside

The U.S. dollar showed weakness after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a $2.3 program to help local governments and small and mid-sized businesses. The Fed is injecting an unprecedented amount of liquidity into the U.S. financial system, and this could ultimately lead to longer-term negative consequences for the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report showed that as much as 6.6 million of Americans filed for unemployment benefits. At this point, the markets were able to shrug off this negative data because of the Fed’s $2.3 billion aid program.

Meanwhile, Canada stated that it expected that its coronavirus deaths will ultimately total 22,000 while as much as 1 million jobs would be lost.

Today’s Canadian Unemployment Rate release showed that unemployment increased to 7.8% in March compared to 5.6% in February. The analyst consensus called for an unemployment rate of 7.2%.

The key near-term driver for USD/CAD is the outcome of OPEC+ meeting which is taking place today. Oil prices have already shown great volatility as traders speculated whether the deal will be reached or not.

However, oil still lacks direction after recent big moves. Stronger oil will support the Canadian dollar as oil production is a very important part of the Canadian economy. In the other scenario, lower oil prices will lead to upside in USD/CAD.

Technical Analysis

usd cad april 9 2020

USD/CAD stays below the 20 EMA at 1.4070. The 20 EMA level serves as the first major resistance for the pair. This level has already been tested several times, and each time the pair met material selling activity.

If this level is breached to the upside, USD/CAD will likely move towards the next resistance area near the 1.4250 level. To breach this level, the pair will likely need additional fundamental catalysts, like a major rush to safe-heaven assets or major oil price weakness.

On the support side, the nearest support level is located near recent lows at 1.3925. USD/CAD tried to test this level several times but so far these attempts were not successful.

If this level is breached to the downside, USD/CAD may quickly find itself at the next support level near the 50 EMA at 1.3850.

Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Drift Lower

It should be noted that next year, we will see a historically low amount of natural gas produced. This is for a multitude of reasons, not the least of which is the fact that there will probably be bankruptcies. Beyond that, pricing simply doesn’t allow the kind of massive amount of drilling and production that we have seen. Quite frankly, a slew of bankruptcies would be the best thing that could happen for this commodity, because it has gotten far too abundant. Having said that, the market looks as if it is going to continue going lower for a while, we should see some type of turnaround based upon the fact that we are very extended, but we aren’t there yet. Because of this, the market is likely to continue going towards the $1.60 level underneath.

NATGAS Video 10.04.20

Alternately, if the market breaks above the two point to zero dollars level, it’s likely that the market can rally another $0.20 or so. Ultimately, this is a market that should continue to see a lot of noise, but I still favor the downside as this is a market that is far too overabundant and obviously the longer-term trend is negative. That being said, I also don’t necessarily think that we are going to break down below the lows though, which has the $1.50 level underneath. If we were to break down below there who knows what would happen next, as it would be extraordinarily negative. On the other hand, if we were to break above the 200 day EMA which is closer to the $2.20 level, it’s likely that the market will continue to go even further. At this point though, I like shorting the market on rallies that show signs of exhaustion.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Rally Towards Highs Again

Gold markets rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the $1700 level. By doing so, the market looks like it is going to try to break out to the upside and it makes quite a bit of sense considering that the Federal Reserve is now buying all kinds of assets including junk bonds. If that’s going to be the case, it will put a certain amount of downward pressure on the US dollar. However, there are those out there that would also equate the Federal Reserve and its massive actions as a sign of serious trouble, perhaps having money flow into gold as a safety trade. Either way, both of these are signs that gold should go higher over the longer term.

Gold Price Predictions Video 10.04.20

On the other end, the market does break down below the 50 day EMA, something that is $129 below where we are currently trading, then the market would change. Until then, I think this is a market that is simply going to be a “buy on the dips” type of situation. We are in an uptrend, and there is no reason to fight that right now, so looking for value is probably the best way going forward. For the long term, I believe that the market will probably go looking towards the $1800 level, possibly even the $2000 level over the next several weeks or months, but I do believe that the trend is set, so at this point I’m not even looking for selling opportunities rather I am looking for value.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Set Up for Bearish Closing Price Reversal Top

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are treading higher on Thursday shortly after the cash market opening. The technology-driven index recovered from earlier weakness after data showed jobless claims fell last week and the Fed announced a broad $2.3 trillion effort to bolster local governments and small and mid-sized businesses.

The Federal Reserve announced a slew of programs that will total up to $2.3 trillion. CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on “Squawk Box” on Thursday, “This Fed is the most aggressive Fed. They do not want to be known as the reason why we went into a depression. I’m very impressed.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. Labor Department said more than 6 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week. Traders had priced in an increase of 5 million.

At 14:49 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 8220.50, up 30.75 or +0.38%. This is down from an intraday high of 8326.25.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session. A trade through 7376.00 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is 9780.50 to 6628.75. Its retracement zone at 8304.75 to 8653.00 is a strong resistance area. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

The intermediate range is 9006.75 to 6628.75. Its retracement zone at 8098.25 to 7817.75 is potential support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 8220.50, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrend Gann angle at 8016.00 and the major 50% level at 8304.75.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking and sustaining a move over 8016.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for a breakout to the upside with the next major target a potential resistance cluster at 8653.00 to 8660.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 8304.50 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for a potential break into the Fibonacci level at 8098.25, followed by an uptrending Gann angle at 8016.00.

Taking out 8016.00 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target a 50% level at 7817.75, followed by another uptrending Gann angle at 7696.00.

Side Notes

A close under 8189.75 will produce a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Quiet Against Japanese Yen

The US dollar has gone back and forth against the Japanese yen, showing signs of confusion at this point, as the market is dancing around the 200 day EMA and the 50 day EMA simultaneously. The moving averages of course will cause a lot of confusion as the markets look to them for guidance on longer-term charts. That being said, this is a market that is confused to say the least, so at this point I think it’s very difficult to make a position play based upon this chart right now, so I think it’s ultimately a chart that should be used as a secondary indicator for the strength or weakness of the Japanese yen. In other words, if we see this market break down, then I think what you might want to do is start looking towards trading the Japanese yen against other currencies.

USD/JPY Video 10.04.20

For example, if you see weakness in the Australian dollar, then you should be shorting the AUD/JPY pair if this chart is also falling. On the other hand, if the pair rallied significantly from here, it’s possible that the AUD/USD rising as well triangulate towards a long position in the AUD/JPY pair. In other words, this chart is essentially a tool at the moment, not necessarily a market that we should be looking to trade per se. The ¥111 level above is an area where I could find sellers, and therefore would be looking for short positions. On the other hand, the ¥105 level underneath should offer plenty of support. At that point I would be looking for buying opportunities.

GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Pressing Major Resistance Barrier Again

The reddish pound has found strength again during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of noise out there that is going to continue to cause major issues. After all, the world is of course dealing with a major “risk off” type of event, but at the same time it should be noted that with the Federal Reserve willing to step in and buy several different assets, including junk bonds which is something that they’ve never done. In other words, they are going to make sure that the world avoids a credit crunch, which was a major problem with the economy when it came to the 2008 situation.

GBP/USD Video 10.04.20

Looking at the chart, it’s obvious that this is an area that a lot of people will be paying attention to. With that being the case, it’s very likely that the markets will explode to the upside if we can break above there, but we cannot, this could be the end of the line for the buyers. With the massive pressure in this pair, it’s a bit difficult to make that trade until we get some type of confirmation, so the close on Thursday will be crucial as Friday is heading into the weekend and a lot of people are cautious about holding risk over the weekend. Simply put, if we can break 1.25 before we close out the weekend, that would be an extraordinarily bullish case for this pair. If not, that means we are more choppiness ahead.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Breaks Out Against Japanese Yen

The British pound has rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday to break out and show signs of life again. Ultimately, the market should continue to see a lot of volatility but with the Federal Reserve stepping in and offering a massive amount of liquidity, it should be noted that there are a lot of good signs out there for risk appetite, as the Federal Reserve is willing to buy just about anything that isn’t nailed down to the floor. Remember, the reserve is essentially the world’s central bank, as a lot of other policies flow either directly from there or in other indirect ways. In other words, we have suddenly seen another reason to see yet another leg of “risk on” type of attitude.

GBP/JPY Video 10.04.20

Now that the market has broken above the ¥135 level, it’s very likely to go looking towards the ¥137 level above, which is where the gap is. Because of this, I believe that it’s only a matter of time before reset level, and I think it will take just a few good days to get there. To the downside, the ¥135 level should now offer support, based upon market memory. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is right there at the 200 day EMA, so all of this kind of lines up perfectly in a technical analysis standpoint. With that in mind, I bullish until we fill that gap at the least. You can also make an argument for a bullish flag just being broken to the upside, which could lead to a move all the way to the 100% Fibonacci retracement level but that obviously would take a significant amount of time.

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Continues to Chop Back and Forth With Positive Thursday

The Euro has rallied during the trading session on Thursday after the Federal Reserve has suggested that the central bank was going to come out and buy just about anything it could, including junk bonds. That being the case, the market is likely to continue punishing the US dollar, but at the same time the European Union is an absolute mess financially. Because of this, the market is likely to continue to see Euro weakness in general. The 1.10 level above is massive resistance, so I don’t think that the pair get above there. When we get closer to the 1.10 level I going to be selling on signs of weakness.

EUR/USD Video 10.04.20

To the downside, I see the 1.08 level as support, and the 1.06 level as the same. This pair will continue to chop around, thereby been very difficult to trade unless you can trade small or perhaps trade short-term charts. I favor the downside in this pair, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve is flooding the market with dollars. This will probably cause a short-term pop to the upside, but I suspect it will also be short-lived.

You can use this as a proxy for the US Dollar Index if your broker doesn’t offer it, because it is a major component to that indicator. Simply put, I use this chart as a gauge of US dollar strength or weakness in other trades, especially when it comes to emerging market currencies. For example, you can do something like use this chart to discern whether the US dollar is showing strength or weakness, and translate that against the Hungarian forint, Mexican peso, South African Rand, and so on.

Oil Swings Between Gains And Losses Ahead Of OPEC+ Talks

Oil Video 09.04.20.

Key Negotiations Begin

Oil is having a choppy trading session, waiting for the results of the key OPEC+ meeting. Early reports suggest that both Russia and Saudi Arabia are ready to commit to meaningful production cuts but they want other countries to participate in the deal.

The U.S. believes that its oil production will decline “automatically” so there is no need to get into formal production cut agreements. Russia is not satisfied with this approach since it fears that U.S. shale oil companies will simply increase their market share at the expense of OPEC+ countries.

Russia has indicated that it may cut is oil production by as much as 2 million barrels per day (bpd) if the agreement is reached. However, it is not clear how much time will be required to implement such production cuts.

Previously, Russia has stated that it was difficult for the country to cut oil production due to the nature of deposits and cold climate. Saudi Arabia and U.S. are in better position to quickly adjust their oil production, but all major producers will have to participate in the deal – or there will be no deal at all.

Is The 10 Million Bpd Cut Big Enough To Improve The Supply/Demand Balance?

Russian oil company Rosneft stated that it believed that a 10 million bpd cut would be sufficient enough to rebalance the market. Rosneft estimates that 2020 oil demand will be lower by 5 million – 7 million bpd compared to 2019 levels.

In my opinion, this is an optimistic estimate. At this point, it looks like major countries will start to re-open their economies in May. However, everyone will be afraid of the second wave of the virus since the world economy cannot take another blow.

Thus, virus containment measures will be lifted gradually. In such environment, it’s hard to expect that oil demand will soon return to normal levels. While the equity market appears to be very optimistic despite the negative data, oil is a physical product, and real-life economic activity will ultimately dictate its price.

The economic projects look grim, especially in the near term. PIMCO, which is one of the biggest investment funds, predicted that U.S. GDP could fall by as much as 30% in the second quarter and 5% for the full year.

Similar hits to GDP would be seen all over the world. In this environment, a 10 million bpd cut may not be sufficient enough to balance the market. However, it would be a huge step forward if oil producers overcome their differences and agree to any coordinated action to curb supply.

AUD/USD Price Forecast – The Australian Dollar Breaks To Extreme Highs

The Australian dollar has rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the highs of the previous session. The Australian dollar reached towards the 0.63 level, and as a result it looks as if we are going to see more buying given enough time. Ultimately, if the market pulls back from here there should be plenty of buyers underneath. That being said, it doesn’t mean that we go straight up in the air, and quite frankly we are still looking at a scenario where headlines for the market around. However, the Federal Reserve looking to liquefy all markets out there suggest that the US dollar could lose a certain amount of value. That being said, there are still a lot of concerns out there, so being cautious is still the order of the day.

AUD/USD Video 10.04.20

Underneath, the 0.62 level should now offer support so a revisit to that area could bring in buyers. A breakdown below that level could throw more doubt into the scenario, but at this point it certainly looks as if the Aussie is trying to make a serious turn around. The market should continue to see a lot of volatility and of course the Australian dollar will be a huge center of that volatility as it is so highly levered to China. To the upside, if we can clear the 0.63 handle, it’s very likely we could go towards the 0.65 level. That is a major level, and it should be noted that these big figures tend to attract a lot of attention. Expect volatility, so keep your position size small.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Strong Over 23796, Weak Under 23571

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading higher shortly after the cash market open after the Federal Reserve game more details on how it will support the economy amid the coronavirus pandemic. The Fed announced a slew of programs, including loans geared towards small and medium sized businesses, that will total up to $2.3 trillion.

At 13:31 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 23631, up 385 or +1.66%.

The Fed announcement was enough to outweigh another massive jump in weekly jobless claims. More than 6 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits the week-ending April 4. Economists were looking for an increase of 5 million.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Taking out Tuesday’s high signaled a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a break through the last main bottom at 20500.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 22244 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The intermediate range is 26962 to 18086. The market is currently straddling is retracement zone at 22524 to 23571.

The main range is 29506 to 18086. Its retracement zone at 23796 to 25144 is the primary upside target.

Combining the two retracement zones creates a resistance cluster at 23571 to 23796. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 23631, the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 23571 and 23796.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 23796 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out this level could drive the Dow into a downtrending Gann angle at 24386.

Overtaking 24386 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target the Fibonacci level at 25144.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 23571 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a retest of the uptrending Gann angle at 23060.

Crossing to the weak side of 23060 could trigger a break into the 50% level at 22524.

A failure to hold 22524 could trigger a break into the minor bottom at 22244, followed by a pair of uptrending Gann angles at 21780 and 21414.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Continues Its Upside Move

Silver Video 09.04.20.

Weaker Dollar And Optimistic Equity Markets Help Silver Gain More Ground

Silver continues its previous upside trend following the release of U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, which showed that 6.6 million of Americans filed for unemployment benefits.

The U.S. stock market was swinging between gains and losses on the news, but so far showed no signs of panic due to the grim data.

The U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies, and the U.S. Dollar Index has slipped below the psychologically important 100 level. The U.S. dollar weakness is bullish for silver since it makes it more affordable for buyers who have other currencies.

The situation with coronavirus stabilizes, and European countries have already started to work on plans regarding how to reopen their economies. Obviously, the current virus containment measures will be lifted gradually since no one wants to risk provoking a second wave of infection.

However, the talk about reopening the economy after weeks of never-ending bad news is already sufficient enough to encourage investors.

Gold is showing upside, and it looks like the stage may be set for another leg up in the precious metal markets. A combination of positive equity market performance and weaker U.S. dollar is exactly what silver needs to have more upside in the current market environment.

Technical Analysis

silver april 9 2020

Silver prices have settled firmly above the 20 EMA at $14.75 and continue their current upside trend. Silver has previously received support just above the 20 EMA at $14.85. This level has been tested three times, and each time silver saw increased buying activity.

Thus, the $14.75 – $14.85 area is the first major support level for silver. I’d also expect that it won’t be easy for silver to go through the $14.30 – $14.60 area in case it breaches the first material support level.

On the upside, the next material resistance is at 50 EMA at $15.60. This level is close to the recent top which was reached a few days ago. In case silver is able to get above the 50 EMA level and settle there, it will have a very good chance to get back to pre-crisis levels at $16.50 and complete the current rebound.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 2786.00, Weakens Under 2765.50

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are called higher based on the pre-market trade. The market was trading lower earlier in the session, but rebounded after the Federal Reserve unveiled details of its Main Street lending programs, which are geared toward helping small and medium-sized businesses hindered by the coronavirus outbreak. The programs will total up to $2.3 trillion.

At 13:02 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2766.25, up 31.25 or 1.14%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier today when buyers traded through 2750.00. The main trend will change to down on a trade through the last main bottom at 2424.75.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 2620.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is 3397.75 to 2174.00. Its retracement zone at 2786.00 to 2930.25 is the next upside target. This is a major resistance zone. It is controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

The intermediate range is 3131.00 to 2174.00. The index is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 2652.50 to 2765.50.

Combining the two retracement zones makes 2765.50 to 2786.00 a key resistance cluster.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 2766.25, the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 2765.50 to 2786.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2786.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overtaking this level could trigger a rally into the downtrending Gann angle at 2699.00. This angle is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next targets 2915.00 and 2930.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2765.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into a downtrending Gann angle at 2699.00.

Crossing to the weak side of the angle at 2699.00 could trigger a break into 2652.50. This is followed by 2620.75 and 2590.00.

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 9, 2020

The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar shortly after the release of a report on U.S. weekly jobless claims. Jobless rolls continued to swell due to the coronavirus shutdown, with 6.6 million Americans filing first-time unemployment claims in the week-ended April 4, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

At 12:47 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.0881, down 0.0003 or -0.02%.

In other news, yields across the core Euro Zone bond markets rose slightly on Thursday, with those in the peripheral markets advancing higher, as investors waited to see whether European finance ministers would be able to reach agreement on an economic rescue package.

The tight trading range suggests the EUR/USD is being underpinned by the hopes that another weak U.S. jobless claims report would lead to additional fiscal stimulus. This would weaken the dollar.

Gains are likely being capped by the chance European finance policymakers decide on an economic rescue package. This would weaken the Euro.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.0768 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 1.1147 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is 1.0636 to 1.1147. The EUR/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 1.0892 to 1.0831. Trader reaction to this zone could determine the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The minor range is 1.1147 to 1.0768. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.0958 is a potential upside target.

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.0881, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.0896 and the Fibonacci level at 1.0831. Holding between these levels will produce a neutral trade.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over the uptrending Gann angle at 1.0896 will indicate the presence of buyers. If buying volume increases on the move then look for a surge into 1.0958 and a downtrending Gann angle at 1.0967.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.0831 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into an uptrending Gann angle at 1.0766. If shorting weakness, make sure you have volume on your side.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Larger-than-Expected Jobless Claims Could Spike Prices Higher

Gold futures are trading higher on Thursday as investors react to softer interest rates, a weaker U.S. Dollar and an early dip in demand for risky assets like stocks. This is an interesting development because it marks the first time in several weeks that gold is reacting in a more traditional manner. Meaning, demand for paper down, demand for hard assets up.

At 10:45 GMT, June Comex gold is trading $1706.30, up $22.00 or +1.31%.

At the start of the coronavirus crisis, Treasury yields spiked lower, stocks broke sharply and gold rallied. That was a traditional reaction.

When stocks started to crash, margin calls had to be met, and investors sold gold to raise the cash needed to meet the calls. Furthermore, there was a liquidity problem and a U.S. Dollar shortage. So for several weeks, gold and stocks were moving in lock-step, meaning they were both moving in the same direction.

Today’s price action suggests gold and stocks are losing this tight correlation.

Daily Forecast

In addition to reacting to the traditional fundamentals, gold traders are also being influenced by the crucial meeting between top oil producers and the long Easter holiday weekend.

Short-term gold is subject to wild volatility swings due to its ties to numerous financial markets and of course, the ever-changing coronavirus stats.

Long-term, the fundamentals are bullish for gold. The market is flooded with fiscal and monetary stimulus which is helping to inflate gold prices.

Furthermore, now that the Fed has made enough U.S. Dollars available for liquidity purposes, the greenback could weaken substantially, which would be bullish for demand for dollar-denominated gold.

In economic news, traders should brace for volatility today at 12:30 GMT with the release of the weekly U.S. jobless claims report. Traders are pricing in a jump of about 5 million, which would put the three week total at 15 million.

This number will help gold traders determine the extent of the damage to the U.S. labor market and economy due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Another weak number will solidify the chances of an additional stimulus package from Congress. This would be bullish for gold.

After the initial reaction to the jobless report, volume could taper off as investors prepare for the long Easter holiday weekend.