Bitcoin and Ripple’s XRP – Weekly Technical Analysis – April 19th, 2021

Bitcoin

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 6.43% in the week ending 18th April. Reversing a 3.08% gain from the previous week, Bitcoin ended the week at $56,172.0.

A bullish start to the week saw Bitcoin rise to a Tuesday intraweek high and a new swing hi $64,829.0 before hitting reverse.

Coming up against the first major resistance level at $64,631, Bitcoin slid to a Sunday intraweek low $50,500.0.

The sell-off saw Bitcoin fall through the first major support level at $56,644.

Finding support at the 23.6% FIB of $50,473, Bitcoin moved back through to $56,000 levels to reduce the deficit. The first major support level at $56,644 pinned Bitcoin back on Sunday.

5 days in the red that included a 6.27% slide on Sunday delivered the downside for the week.

For the week ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the $57,167 pivot to support a run the first major resistance level at $63,834.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $60,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and last week’s new swing hi $64,829.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Bitcoin could test resistance at $70,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $71,496.

Failure to move through the $57,167 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $50,473 and the first major support level at $49,505 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$45,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $42,838.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 1.01% to $56,738.0. A mixed start to the week saw Bitcoin fall to an early Monday morning low $55,709.0 before rising to a high $57,200.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

BTCUSD 190421 Daily Chart

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 4.67% in the week ending 18th April. Following on from a 113.1% surge from the previous week, Ripple’s XRP ended the week at $1.41371.

A bullish start to the week saw Ripple’s XRP rally to a Tuesday intraweek high and a new swing hi $1.96598.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the first major resistance level at $1.6927 before sliding to a Sunday intraweek low $1.1500.

The sell-off saw Ripple’s XRP fall through the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 and the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.8162, however, Ripple’s XRP found support to end the week at $1.41 levels.

Ripple’s XRP broke back through the 38.2% FIB to end the week in positive territory.

3-days in the green included a 22.32% breakout on Tuesday delivered the upside for the week. An 11.91% slide on Friday and an 8.33% loss on Sunday pared some of the gains, however.

For the week ahead

Ripple’s XRP would need to move through the pivot at $1.5099 and the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 to bring the first major resistance level at $1.8698 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $1.80 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and last week’s swing hi $1.96598 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Ripple’s XRP could test the second major resistance level at $2.3259.

Failure to move through the pivot at $1.5099 and the 23.6% FIB would bring the first major support level at $1.0538 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off in the week, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$1.00 levels and the 62% FIB of $0.8573. The second major support sits at $0.6939.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 2.57% to $1.45001. A mixed start to the week saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early Monday morning low $1.3600 before rising to a high $1.46.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

XRPUSD 190421 Daily Chart

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – April 19th, 2021

EOS

EOS fell 6.35% on Sunday. Following on from an 8.49% slide on Saturday, EOS ended the week up by 8.58% to $7.2996.

A bullish start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning intraday high $7.9496 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $8.5691 slid to an early morning intraday low $5.7984.

The sell-off saw EOS fall through the first major support level at $7.3032 and the second major support level at $6.8203.

EOS also fell through the 23.6% FIB of $6.52 before finding support.

Steering clear of the third major support level at $5.5544, EOS bounced back to end the day at $7.2 levels.

The partial recovery saw EOS break back through the 23.6% FIB and the second major support level.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 0.42% to $7.2877. A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to an early morning low $7.0454 before rising to a high $7.5766.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOSUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid the $7.0159 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $8.2333.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break back through to $8.00 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $9.00 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $9.1671.

A fall through the $7.0159 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $6.52 and the first major support level at $6.0821 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer clear of sub-$5.50 levels. The second major support level sits at $4.8647.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $6.0821

First Major resistance Level: $8.2333

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen slid by 7.83% on Sunday. Following on from a 3.03% loss on Saturday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the week down by 6.52% to $0.5460.

A bullish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning intraday high $0.6014 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.6275, Stellar’s Lumen slid to an early morning intraday low $0.4590.

Stellar’s Lumen fell through the day’s major support levels and through the 23.6% FIB of $0.5342.

Finding support in the afternoon, Stellar’s Lumen bounced back to end the day at $0.54 levels.

The partial recovery saw Stellar’s Lumen break back through the third major support level at $0.5017 and the 23.6% FIB of $0.5342.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was up by 0.79% to $0.5503. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to an early morning low $0.5362 before rising to a high $0.5623.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to avoid the pivot level at $0.5355 and the 23.6% FIB to bring the first major resistance level at $0.6119 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen break back through to $0.60 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test resistance at $0.65. The second major resistance level sits at $0.6778.

A fall through the $0.5355 pivot and the 23.6% FIB of $0.5342 would bring the first major support level at $0.4695 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.40 levels. the second major support level sits at $0.3931.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.4695

First Major Resistance Level: $0.6119

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5342

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4373

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2808

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX slid by 7.72% on Sunday. Following on from a 3.42% decline from Saturday, Tron’s TRX ended the week up by 17.91% to $0.1435.

A bullish start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning intraday high $0.1577 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.1739, Tron’s TRX slid to an early morning intraday low $0.1206.

Tron’s TRX fell through the first major support level at $0.1446 and the second major support level at $0.1338.

The sell-off also saw Tron’s TRX slide through the 23.6% FIB of $0.1426 before finding support.

Through the afternoon, Tron’s TRX broke back through the major support levels and the 23.6% FIB to visit $0.145 levels.

A bearish end to the day, however, saw Tron’s TRX fall back through the first major support level at $0.1446 to end the day at sub-$0.144 levels.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was up by 1.29% to $0.1454. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning low $0.1379 before rising to a high $0.1497.

While leaving the major support and resistance levels untested early on, Tron’s TRX briefly fell through the 23.6% FIB.

TRXUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to avoid a fall back through the 23.6% FIB and the $0.1406 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.1606 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break back through to $0.15 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally Tron’s TRX could test resistance at $0.17 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.1777.

A fall back through the 23.6% FIB of $0.1426 and the $0.1406 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.1235 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of the second major support level at $0.1035. The 38.2% FIB of $0.1167 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.1235

First Major Resistance Level: $0.1606

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1167

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0748

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Sellers Defending $1788.50 Long-Term 50% Level

Gold futures are edging lower on Monday after an early session attempt to take out Friday’s high was met with selling pressure. Treasury yields are dipping lower early in the session, but the U.S. Dollar is trading higher against a basket of currencies, suggesting we could be seeing early signs of a risk off trading session.

At 01:30 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1776.60, down $3.60 or -0.20%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1784.70 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through $1723.20.

On the upside, the major resistance is the long-term 50% level at $1788.50.

On the downside, the support is a series of 50% levels at $1767.60, $1754.00, $1746.90 and $1731.00. The major support is the long-term 61.8% level at $1711.90.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June Comex gold futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term 50% level at $1788.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1788.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the 50% level at $1767.60. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on the first test of $1767.50. If it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into a minor 50% level at $1754.00. Once again, buyers could step in to stop the price slide.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1788.50 will signal the presence of buyers. This move could trigger an acceleration to the upside with $1817.60 the next likely upside target price.

Side Notes

For bigger picture traders, the retracement zone at $1788.50 to $1711.90 represents 50% to 61.8%, respectively, of last year’s trading range. So overtaking $1788.50 could become a big deal if the buying volume increases on the move. Fundamentally, it’s going to need help from lower yields and a weaker U.S. Dollar. I don’t think gold will be able to sustain a rally over $1788.50 without help from those two factors.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Update – Strengthens Over $63.47, Weakens Under $62.29

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are inching lower early Monday, following a 6% gain last week. The market is being supported by friendly demand outlooks from IEA and OPEC and a rapidly improving global economy. However, lingering concerns over rising COVID-19 cases may be keeping a lid on prices, suggesting the weakness is being fueled by profit-taking.

At 01:04 GMT, June WTI crude oil futures are trading $62.83, down $0.36 or -0.57%.

Daily June WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher. A trade through $66.15 will change the main trend to up. A move through $57.29 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. The minor trend will change to down on a trade through $57.68. A new minor top has formed at $63.94. A trade through this price will reaffirm the minor trend.

The short-term range is $67.29 to $57.29. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at $62.29 to $63.47. Sellers are trying to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top. Buyers are trying to drive the market higher.

The minor range is $57.29 to $63.94. Its 50% level at $60.61 is a potential support price.

The main range is $67.29 to $51.04. Its retracement zone at $59.17 to $57.25 is potential support. It’s also controlling the near-term direction of the market.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June WTI crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at $63.47.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $63.47 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first potential downside target is the short-term 50% level at $62.29.

Buyers could come in on the first test of $62.29, but if it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor 50% level at $60.61.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $63.47 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the minor top at $63.94. Overtaking this level could trigger the start of a drive into $66.15, followed by $67.20.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

European Equities: A Quiet Day Ahead Leaves Geopolitics and COVID-19 in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Tuesday, 20th April

German PPI (MoM) (Mar)

Thursday, 22nd April

Deposit Facility Rate (Apr)

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr)

Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash

Friday, 23rd April

French Manufacturing PMI (Apr) Prelim

French Services PMI (Apr) Prelim

German Manufacturing PMI (Apr) Prelim

German Services PMI (Apr) Prelim

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Apr) Prelim

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Apr) Prelim

Eurozone Services PMI (Apr) Prelim

ECB President Lagarde Speaks

The Majors

It was a bullish end to the week for the European majors on Friday.

Following on from a relatively bullish day on Thursday, the DAX30 rallied by 1.34%, to lead the way. The CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 saw more modest gains of 0.85% and 0.90% respectively.

Positive stats from China and the U.S provided support for the European majors at the end of the week.

Corporate earnings delivered further upside for German autos and the DAX30. At the end of the week, Daimler released prelim Q12021 results. Favorable sales momentum at Mercedes driven by strong demand, from China in particular, delivered better than expected results.

The Stats

It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar on Friday.

Finalized inflation figures and trade data for the Eurozone were in focus.

Eurozone Inflation

In March, the annual rate of inflation accelerated from 0.9% to 1.3%. The annual rate of inflation had stood at 0.7% in March 2020.

According to Eurostat,

  • The lowest annual rates of inflation were registered in Greece (-2.0%), Portugal, Malta, Ireland, and Slovenia (all 0.1%).
  • Luxembourg registered the highest annual rate of inflation at 2.5%.
  • The highest contribution to the annual rate of inflation came from services (+0.57 percentage points).
  • There were also contributions from energy (+0.43 pp), food, alcohol, & tobacco (+0.24 pp), and non-energy industrial goods (+0.09 pp).

Trade

In February, the Eurozone’s trade surplus widened from €11.0bn to €17.7bn.

According to Eurostat,

  • Exports of goods to the rest of the world fell by 5.5% to €178.6bn when compared with Feb-2020.
  • Imports from the rest of the world declined by 2.7% to €161.0bn when compared with Feb-2020.
  • Intra-euro area trade rose by 1.7% to €164.8bn when compared with Feb-2020.

From the U.S

It was another busy day, with key stats including consumer sentiment figures. Housing sector data was also in focus but had a muted impact on the majors.

According to April prelim figures, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 84.9 to 86.5.

While up by just 1.9% month-on-month, the index was up 20.5% year-on-year.

Supporting the increase was a 4.5% rise in the Current Economic Conditions Index from 93.0 to 97.2. Year-on-year, the index was up 30.8%.

Holding steady in April, was the Index of Consumer Expectations that remained unchanged at 79.7. Year-on-year, the index was up 13.7%.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Friday. Daimler and Volkswagen rallied 2.79% and by 2.65% respectively, with Continental gaining 2.33%. BMW saw a more modest 0.12% gain on the day.

It was also a bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rose by 1.83%, with Commerzbank ending the day up by 1.23%.

From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas rallied by 2.20%, with Soc Gen gaining 1.27%. Credit Agricole saw a more modest 0.11% rise on the day.

It was also a bullish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV rose by 1.46%, with Renault rallying by 2.29%.

Air France-KLM found much-needed support, rising by 2.24%, with Airbus SE gaining 0.82%.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive week in the red the VIX on Friday, marking a 6th daily fall in 8-sessions.

Following on from a 2.47% fall on Thursday, the VIX fell by 1.93% to end the day at 16.25.

The Dow and the S&P500 rose by 0.48% and by 0.36% respectively, with the NASDAQ gaining 0.10%.

VIX 190421 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the European economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the European majors with direction.

There are also no stats from the U.S to influence later in the day.

The lack of stats will leave the majors in the hands of geopolitics and COVID-19 vaccine updates from the weekend. Bullish sentiment towards the earnings season should provide some support going into the week, however.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down by 104 points, while the DAX was up by 23.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – April 19th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum fell by 3.35% on Sunday. Following on from a 4.45% decline on Saturday, Ethereum ended the week up by 4.23% to $2,241.45.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high $2,341.00 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,439, Ethereum slid to an early morning intraday low $2,000.00.

The extended sell-off saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level at $2,258 and the second major support level at $2,197.

Finding support at the third major support level at $2,016, Ethereum bounced back to end the day at $2,200 levels.

The partial recovery saw Ethereum break back through the second major support level at $2,197.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.60% to $2,228.01. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,254.00 before falling to a low $2,205.01.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $2,194 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2,388.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $2,300 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $2,341.00 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $2,500 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,535.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $2,194 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,047 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of the second major support level at $1,853. The 23.6% FIB of $1,966 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,047

Pivot Level: $2,194

First Major Resistance Level: $2,388

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,976

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1,606

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,023

Litecoin

Litecoin slid by 8.92% on Sunday.  Following on from a 2.51% fall from Saturday, Litecoin ended the week up by 8.68% to $274.20.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $305.33 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $325, Litecoin slid to an early morning intraday low $241.09.

The sell-off saw Litecoin fall through the first major support level at $287 and the second major support level at $273.

More significantly, Litecoin also tumbled through the 23.6% FIB of $262.

Finding late morning support, Litecoin moved back through the 23.6% FIB and the second major support level to end the day at $274 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 1.12% to $271.13. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $275.62 before falling to a low $267.69.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move back the $274 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $306.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break back through to $300 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $305.33 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a bounce back, Litecoin could test resistance at $320 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $338.

Failure to move back through the $274 pivot level would bring the 23.6% FIB of $262 and the first major support level at $242 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the the second major support level at $209. The 38.2% FIB of $217 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $242

Pivot Level: $274

First Major Resistance Level: $306

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $250

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $207

62% FIB Retracement Level: $138

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP slid by 8.28% on Sunday. Following a 0.62% decline from Saturday, Ripple’s XRP ended the week up by 4.67% to $1.41371.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.56714 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.6802, Ripple’s XRP slid to an early morning intraday low $1.15000.

Ripple’s XRP slid through the day’s major support levels before finding support.

More significantly, Ripple’s XRP also fell through the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 and the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807.

Steering clear of sub-$1.00 levels, Ripple’s XRP bounced back to end the day at $1.41 levels.

The partial recovery had seen Ripple’s XRP break back through the third major support level at $1.1848 and the second major support level at $1.3960.

Ripple’s XRP also broke back through the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 2.29% to $1.38138. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $1.43776 before falling to a low $1.36000.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall back through the $1.3770 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $1.6039 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $1.80 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.7941.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $1.3770 pivot would bring the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807 and the first major support level at $1.1868 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$1.00 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.9598.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1.1868

Pivot Level: $1.3770

First Major resistance Level: $1.6039

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – Technical Reversal Could Be Signaling Weakening Selling Pressure

The Dollar/Yen finished higher on Friday after the Forex pair touched its lowest level since March 24 early in the session. The move produced a technical closing price reversal bottom that could be the first sign that the buying is greater than the selling at current price levels.

On Friday, the USD/JPY settled at 108.793, up 0.030 or +0.03%.

The price action was driven by a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields that helped the U.S. Dollar stabilize after a second consecutive week of losses.

U.S. Treasury yields bounced back on Friday after the 10-year rate slipped to 1.53% in the previous session. Near the end of the session, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.587%. Earlier in the month, the 10-year Treasury yield recently topped 1.70%.

US Economic News

U.S. housing starts surged 19.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.739 million units last month, the highest level since June 2006. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts would rise to a rate of 1.613 million units in March.

Permits for future home building rose 2.7% to a rate of 1.766 million units last month, recouping only a fraction of February’s 8.8% plunge. They jumped 30.2% compared to March 2020.

Inflation concerns were on consumers’ minds early this month. A separate report from the University of Michigan on Friday showed its preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 86.5 from a final reading of 84.9 in March. Economists had forecast the index would rise to 89.6.

Finally, the survey’s one-year inflation expectation jumped to 3.7%, the highest level in nearly a decade, from 3.1% in March. Its five-year inflation outlook was unchanged at 2.7%.

Japan Economic News

In Japan, Preliminary Machine Tool Orders came in at 65.0%, up from 36.7%. Core Machinery Orders, however, fell 8.5%, missing the 2.4% forecast and coming in below the previously reported -4.5%.

Japan’s core machinery orders unexpectedly fell 8.5% in February from the previous month, posting a second straight month of declines, government data showed last week.

The fall in core orders, a highly volatile data series regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months, compared with a forecast of 2.8% growth in a Reuters poll of economists, the Cabinet Office data showed.

On a year-on-year basis, core orders, which exclude those for ships and electric utilities, declined 7.1% in February, versus a 2.3% gain expected by economists.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – Stable Greenback Caps Aussie, Kiwi

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars broke out of a tight range to hit three-week highs last week as their U.S. counterpart extended its broad retreat and upbeat data suggested the Australian economy had grown strongly last quarter. The Kiwi just went along for the ride as a dovish central bank and business survey pointed toward a weak economy. On Friday, both currencies suffered small losses as traders squared positions ahead of the weekend.

On Friday, the AUD/USD settled at .7734, down 0.0017 or -0.22% and the NZD/USD finished at .7146, down 0.0025 or -0.35%.

US Economic News

The Aussie and Kiwi were pressured on Friday as U.S. Treasury yields rebounded after the 10-year rate slipped to 1.53% in the previous session. The move helped stabilize the U.S. Dollar, which had been down most of the week.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.587%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to 2.275%. The 10-year Treasury yield recently dropped 1.7%, while the 30-year government bond rate traded above 2.5%, amid concerns about rising inflation.

Housing starts jumped 19.4% month-over-month in March, according the Commerce Department, while building permits rose 2.7%. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose in April to 86.5 from 84.9 a month prior.

On Thursday, data from the Commerce Department showed U.S. retail sales jumped 9.8% in March. This was well above the Dow Jones estimate of 6.1% growth. Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported that there were 576,000 new jobless claims filed for the week ended April 10. This was the lowest number of new weekly unemployment insurance claims since March 2020 and well below the 710,000 forecast by economists.

New Zealand Economic News

The Business NZ Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 63.6, up 9.4 points from February, and the highest monthly result since the survey began in 2002.

BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said, “The two major sub-index values of Production (66.8) and New Orders (72.5) were the main drivers of the March result, with the latter experiencing its first post 70-point value. This does not indicate a swift shift in demand over a relatively short time, which may indicate a move towards previously shelved projects and business ventures that have now been given the green light.”

“Given the strong March result, the proportion of those outlining positive comments increased significantly from 46% in February to almost 58% in March. Unsurprisingly, comments were centered towards increased demand both domestically and offshore”.

BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel said, “More demand is one thing, but meeting it is another. Firms have faced many supply-side challenges. In this regard, it is interesting to see PMI deliveries of raw materials lifted strongly, to 62.8 this month. That coincides with other data showing imports leapt more than 17% above year earlier levels in March following prior weakness”.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Right Here, Right Now: Norwegian Outages Start Building Up

If Q2 2021 European gas market can be accompanied by a soundtrack, it will definitely be ‘Right Here, Right Now’ by Fatboy Slim. The name of that song accurately describes the dynamism of things taking place since the very beginning of this year’s gas summer.

Following the reversal in injections into the gas storages, Europe is already experiencing lower production from the NCS. Norwegian maintenance, that has started during the second ten days of April, represents the first significant decline in gas supplies to NWE since January, when players lost access to LNG amid soaring Asian premium and vessel shortages.

Over a period of two and a half months, the regional market is expected to be short 4.9 bcm of supplies from Norway, most of which fell between April and May. Q2 daily gas exports from the country are expected to be constrained by 18% on average as compared to the levels seen in late March.

2021 Norwegian outages are developing according to their usual timing, in contrast to last year. In 2020, the works on the fields and processing plants were postponed until Q3 due to Covid restrictions, thereby extending a series of outages initiated by the planned shutdowns of Nord Stream and Yamal pipelines. It assisted in clearing a part of oversupply, laying a foundation for the subsequent growth in prices.

What influence Norwegian maintenance will have on the market environment this time? This is not a simple question, given the need for filling up storages on the one hand and favourable conditions for Europe-bound LNG deliveries on the other. As of now, the most that can be said is that the longer UGSs do not go into injection mode, the stronger will be the effect of Norway’s lower supplies throughout this quarter.

The opinions expressed in this blog are mine only and do not reflect the views of my employer.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – New Support Moves Up to 13786.00

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures finished slightly higher on Friday. The index hit a new record high during the session, but it was a struggle with tech behemoths Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Tesla Inc and Microsoft Corp, slipping between 0.2% and 1.5%. In the cash market, the technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite finished less than one percent below its own all-time closing high achieved on February 12.

On Friday, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 14029.50, up 15.50 or +0.11%.

The Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep interest rates low despite inflation has also revived demand for richly valued technology stocks, although bond yields edged higher again on Friday after hitting multi-week lows a day earlier.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Friday when buyers took out Thursday’s high at 14034.25.

A trade through 12609.75 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the index closed on Friday inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 13512.50 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 13512.50 to 14059.50. Its 50% level at 13786.00 is the nearest support.

The main range is 12609.75 to 14059.50. If the minor trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at 13334.50 to 13165.50.

Short-Term Outlook

The uptrend is very strong and it’s going to take some time to change the main trend to down. However, a higher-high, lower-close will be the first sign of selling pressure. The formation of a closing price reversal top chart pattern will give investors an early warning to start trimming long positions.

Some aggressive traders will choose to use this chart pattern as a shorting opportunity. This will be much better than trying to pick a top. However, keep in mind that a closing price reversal top does not change the trend. It only indicates the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels.

The daily chart currently indicates that a combination of a closing price reversal top and a sustained move under 13786.00 could trigger the start of a steep break with 13334.50 the minimum objective.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Supported by Strong LNG Volumes, Cooler Temps

Natural gas futures moved higher on Friday, cementing a strong weekly gain. The market hits its highest level since March 12 on the back of increased weather-driven demand and strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes. Perhaps putting a lid on the rally was a 2.0 cent drop in Natural Gas Intelligence’s (NGI) Spot Gas National Average.

On Friday, June natural gas settled at $2.754, up $0.024 or +0.88%.

Daily June Natural Gas

LNG Feed Gas Volumes Remain Supportive

NGI reported that LNG feed gas volumes hovered close to 2021 highs and above 11 Bcf on Friday, as export destinations in Asia and Europe continued to buy up U.S. supplies of the super-chilled fuel. Pipeline exports to Mexico also held strong, hanging near 7 Bcf.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

“Overnight, the European model continued to shift significantly cooler, adding 21.3 HDDs over the past 24 hours and extending cooler-than-normal weather through the end of April,” EBW Analytics Group said Friday.

The American model was essentially flat over the same period, EBW noted. It called for cooler temperatures over the coming week but a return to mild spring weather before the end of the month.

US Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

The EIA reported on Thursday that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 61 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended April 9. That compares with an average increase of 65 Bcf forecast by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts.

Total stocks now stand at 1.845 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), down 242 Bcf from a year ago but 11 Bcf above the five-year average, the government said.

Daily Forecast

Technically, the main trend changed to up. If the upside momentum continues then look for the move to possibly extend into a key 50% to 61.8% retracement zone.

The February 17 top is $3.082. The March 18 bottom is $2.521. Its retracement zone at $2.802 to $2.868 is the next likely upside target. Sellers could come in on a test of this area.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

IBM Spin-Off Attracting Little Excitement

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) reports Q1 2021 earnings after Monday’s closing bell, with analysts expecting a profit of $1.62 per-share on $17.35 billion in revenue. If met, earnings-per-share (EPS) will mark a 12% profit decline compared to the same quarter in 2020, which included the Wuhan outbreak and worldwide lockdowns. The stock fell nearly 10% in January after missing Q4 revenue estimates and failing to provide a detailed fiscal year outlook.

IBM Q4 Spin-Off

The stock rallied to a 52-week high in March, fueled by the spin-off of the legacy Managed Infrastructure Services (MIS) business into a publicly-traded entity, in a transaction expected to close by year’s end. A flood of partnerships and acquisitions is populating the new high growth core operation, including purchases of cloud and fintech firms TruQua Enterprises, Instana, Expertus Technologies, Nordcloud, 7Summits, Taos Mountain, and myInvenio,

The spin-off will isolate slow-growing segments responsible for the tech giant’s downtrend so that core operations, dubbed NewCo, can concentrate on rapidly-growing cloud and artificial intelligence businesses. NewCo should attract a higher price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) than the predecessor, marking IBM’s most ambitious initiative in decades. However, shareholders will also get proportional shares of the legacy company, which could perform poorly in coming years.

Wall Street and Technical Outlook

Wall Street is taking a ‘wait and see’ attitude with the upcoming spin-off, posting a consensus ‘Hold’ rating based upon 5 ‘Buy’, 10 ‘Hold’, and 2 ‘Sell’ recommendations. Price targets currently range from a low of $115 to a Street-high $165 while the stock closed Friday’s session just $2 below the median $140 target. This placement sets the stage for higher prices in reaction to an upbeat report that focuses on the benefits of the upcoming reorganization.

The stock entered a multiyear downtrend after topping out in 2012 and may have bottomed out in March 2020. Lower highs posted during the decline have carved a well-defined trendline that now places major resistance at 150. A breakout will confirm the first uptrend in eight years but that isn’t likely in the short-term because accumulation readings have slumped to two-year lows despite the first quarter uptick, predicting rangebound action into the foreseeable future.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Disclosure: the author held no positions in aforementioned securities at the time of publication.

Earnings to Watch Next Week: Coca-Cola, United Airlines, NetFlix and SVB Financial in Focus

Earnings Calendar For The Week Of April 19

Monday (April 19)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: COCA-COLA, UNITED AIRLINES

COCA-COLA: The world’s largest soft drink manufacturer is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $0.50 per share, which represents a year-over-year decline of about 2% from $0.51 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

The company’s revenue growth to be flat at $8.6 billion. However, in the last two years, on average, Coca-Cola has beaten revenue estimates over 70% and earnings estimates of nearly 90%.

Coca-Cola, which has still not seen a full recovery to its pre-COVID-19 level, may be a decent investment opportunity at the moment. The stock traded around $60 pre-COVID in February 2020 and is 11% below that level. However, the stock has gained 40% since its March lows of $37, following the Fed’s stimulus package and measures announced by other economies. The gradual lifting of lockdowns and successful vaccine rollout has further enthused markets in anticipation of faster economic recovery,” noted analysts at TREFIS.

“However, the stock is unlikely to surpass its pre-Covid level anytime soon, as most of its business depends on demand from people going to entertainment venues, sporting events, etc. These locations are not yet fully operational in most parts of the world. With the recent spike in Covid cases, there are some forms of lockdowns imposed again in certain economies, thus slowing the recovery in demand. Therefore, in the absence of another complete lockdown (as was seen in 2020) and implementation of the vaccination program the stock is likely to rise, but full recovery to February 2020 levels looks unlikely in the near term. KO stock has a potential upside of about 10%.”

UNITED AIRLINES: One of the largest airlines in the world is expected to report a loss for the fifth consecutive time of $6.91 in the first quarter of 2021 on April 19 as the aviation service provider continues to be negatively impacted by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and renewed travel restrictions.

That would represent a year-over-year decline of over 168% from -$2.57 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago. The Chicago-based airline’s revenue would decline about 60% to around $3.3 billion.

“Most of the US airlines will report 1Q21 earnings the week of April 19 and 26. We expect the focus to be on higher fuel costs, the nascent traffic recovery, and improving the balance sheet. Our focus remains on domestic leisure airlines while watching borders reopening to determine recovery for international traffic. We also expect airlines to talk about repairing their balance sheet,” said Helane Becker, equity analyst at Cowen and Company.

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE APRIL 19

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
KO Coca-Cola $0.50
PLD ProLogis $0.37
MTB M&T Bank $3.00
ONB Old National Bancorp $0.41
UAL United Airlines Holdings -$6.98
CCK Crown $1.37
STLD Steel Dynamics $1.84
ZION Zions Bancorporation $1.18
PNFP Pinnacle Financial Partners $1.43
ACC American Campus Communities $0.15
HXL Hexcel -$0.16
WTFC Wintrust Financial $1.40
FNB FNB $0.25
SFBS ServisFirst Bancshares $0.95
HDS HD Supply Holdings $0.39
IBM IBM $1.68
EIDX Eidos Therapeutics Inc -$0.80
LII Lennox International $1.25
CDNS Cadence Design Systems $0.74

 

Tuesday (April 20)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: NETFLIX

The California-based global internet entertainment service company is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $2.97 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 90% from $1.57 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago. The streaming video pioneer would post revenue growth of over 23% to around $7.15 billion.

“We expect paid net adds to be in line with guide, helped in part by ongoing COVID shutdowns in some markets. Our view is supported by our positive 1Q survey data, which implies NFLX continues to lead living room TV apps. We also view the 45% of survey respondents who share passwords as a LT opp’ty for incremental subs. Reiterate Outperform & $675 Price Target,” noted John Blackledge, equity analyst at Cowen and Company.

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE APRIL 20

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
ABF Associated British Foods £17.31
XRX Xerox $0.29
AN AutoNation $1.85
DOV Dover $1.45
JNJ Johnson & Johnson $2.33
PG Procter & Gamble $1.19
ABT Abbott $1.27
PM Philip Morris International $1.40
LMT Lockheed Martin $6.31
DANOY Danone PK $0.46
TRV Travelers Companies $2.38
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp $0.69
EDU New Oriental Education Tech $0.06
NTRS Northern $1.49
KEY KEY $0.47
OMC Omnicom $1.13
CMA Comerica $1.38
SNV Synovus Financial $0.93
HOG Harley Davidson $0.90
IRDM Iridium Communications -$0.05
MAN ManpowerGroup $0.67
WBS Webster Financial $0.90
GATX GATX Corp $0.89
SFNC Simmons First National $0.52
BMI Badger Meter $0.42
NFLX Netflix $2.97
ISRG Intuitive Surgical $2.64
CSX CSX $0.96
EW Edwards Lifesciences $0.47
WRB W.R. Berkley $0.83
IBKR Interactive Brokers $0.87
THC Tenet Healthcare $0.73
HWC Hancock Whitney Corp $0.97
UCBI United Community Banks $0.64
FULT Fulton Financial $0.35
FMBI First Midwest Bancorp $0.37
EMR Emerson Electric $0.89
PCAR PACCAR $1.29
TER Teradyne $1.04
ENTG Entegris $0.72
CIT CIT $0.98
AVNT Avient Corp $0.71
ELS Equity Lifestyle Properties $0.35
PACW Pacwest Bancorp $0.91
BECN Beacon Roofing Supply $0.08

 

Wednesday (April 21)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: SIGNATURE BANK

The New York-based full-service commercial bank is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $2.85 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 50% from $1.88 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago. The bank would post revenue growth of about 18% to around $428 million.

SBNY has a unique business model, with its single-point-of-contact bankers, excellent credit culture, and a highly efficient operating structure. Its loan growth continues to outpace peers, given its relatively new focus on growing its PE/VC capital call lending business, while strategically de-emphasizing its NYC MF portfolio,” Ken Zerbe, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“While we do expect losses in SBNY’s CRE portfolio, we believe the market is overly discounting this in the stock price, particularly given its strong underwriting history and conservative lending.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE APRIL 21

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
HCSG Healthcare Services $0.27
ERIC Ericsson $0.11
TEL TE Connectivity $1.48
NDAQ Nasdaq Omx $1.72
RCI Rogers Communications USA $0.53
BKR Baker Hughes Co $0.11
HAL Halliburton $0.17
RANJY Randstad Holdings $0.46
SBNY Signature Bank $2.85
FHN First Horizon National $0.35
KNX Knight Transportation $0.70
BOKF BOK Financial $1.92
NEP Nextera Energy Partners $0.33
FCFS FirstCash $0.70
ASML ASML $3.06
NEE NextEra Energy $0.58
ANTM Anthem $6.38
LAD Lithia Motors $4.74
CP Canadian Pacific Railway USA $4.35
CACI Caci International $3.68
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill $4.89
KMI Kinder Morgan $0.24
DFS Discover Financial Services $2.81
WHR Whirlpool $5.04
GGG Graco $0.50
GL Globe Life Inc $1.63
SLM SLM $1.05
REXR Rexford Industrial Realty $0.06
LSTR Landstar System $1.63
FR First Industrial Realty $0.24
RLI RLI $0.66
VMI Valmont Industries $1.92
SLG SL Green Realty -$0.14
UFPI Universal Forest Products $0.87
UMPQ Umpqua $0.44
TCBI Texas Capital Bancshares $1.09
BXS BancorpSouth $0.63
SNBR Scs Group Plc $1.85
CNS Cohen & Steers $0.76
RUSHA Rush Enterprises $0.52
PLXS Plexus $1.25
TBK Triumph Bancorp $0.91
BDN Brandywine Realty $0.02
EFX Equifax $1.53
LRCX Lam Research $6.60
CCI Crown Castle International $0.53
STL Sterling Bancorp $0.46
CHDN Churchill Downs $0.64
NWE Northwestern $1.12
RHI Robert Half International $0.80
SEIC SEI Investments $0.88
CVBF CVB Financial $0.37
LVS Las Vegas Sands -$0.27
PKX Posco $2.22
URI United Rentals $3.08
BZLFY Bunzl plc $0.15
ELISA Elisa Oyj €0.51

 

Thursday (April 22)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: SVB FINANCIAL

The parent of Silicon Valley Bank is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $6.47 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of about 153% from $2.55 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

In the last four consecutive quarters, on average, the company has delivered an earnings surprise of over 45%. The Santa Clara, California-based company would post revenue growth of over 50% to about $1.24 billion.

SIVB is one of the fastest-growing banks in our coverage universe, with an average of 20%+ loan and deposit growth annually since 2010, with the growth driven by its unique niche of lending to the technology and life sciences industries, including PE and VC capital call lines. While we expect growth to slow, we still see low-teens loan growth (well above peers) for the next several years,” noted Ken Zerbe, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“We are Equal-weight the shares due to valuation. SIVB is trading at just over 20x forward earnings and more than 10 P/E points above its peers (versus a 4-6x multiple premium that we believe it deserves). SIVB‘s earnings are highly sensitive to changes in Fed funds. Rate increases would drive higher EPS.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE APRIL 22

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
WSO Watsco $0.88
LUV Southwest Airlines -$1.88
VLO Valero Energy -$1.56
AAL American Airlines -$4.18
HCA HCA $3.31
SAP SAP $1.21
GPC Genuine Parts $1.14
FRME First Merchants $0.78
NUE Nucor $3.07
FCX Freeport-McMoran $0.51
PNR Pentair Ordinary Share $0.61
ALK Alaska Air -$3.68
SASR Sandy Spring Bancorp $1.02
ORI Old Republic International $0.46
DOW Dow Chemical $1.10
DHR Danaher $1.74
WNS Wns Holdings $0.69
FAF First American Financial $1.31
RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum $3.55
T AT&T $0.78
UNP Union Pacific $2.08
TPH Tri Pointe Homes $0.47
TAL TAL International -$0.23
HBAN Huntington Bancshares $0.32
AEP American Electric Power $1.18
BIIB Biogen $5.02
DHI DR Horton $2.18
EWBC East West Bancorp $1.25
BX Blackstone $0.75
DGX Quest Diagnostics $3.74
POOL Pool $1.14
ALLE Allegion $1.02
CLF Cliffs Natural Resources $0.35
TSCO Tractor Supply $0.97
TRN Trinity Industries $0.06
MKTX MarketAxess $2.12
BKU BankUnited $0.74
SNA Snap-On $3.03
IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc $1.85
SON Sonoco Products $0.86
ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line $1.58
SKX Skechers USA $0.49
INDB Independent Bank $1.09
HTH Hilltop $1.01
CE Celanese $2.98
OZK Bank Ozk $0.86
FFBC First Financial Bancorp $0.47
CSL Carlisle Companies $0.68
SAM Boston Beer $2.60
STX Seagate Technology $1.33
VICR Vicor $0.19
WWE World Wrestling Entertainment $0.20
ABCB Ameris Bancorp $1.13
ARI Apollo Commercial Real Est Finance $0.33
GBCI Glacier Bancorp $0.75
SBCF Seacoast Banking Of Florida $0.48
VRSN Verisign $1.34
MAT Mattel -$0.34
WSFS Wsfs Financial $0.86
SNAP Snap -$0.21
SIVB SVB Financial $6.47
ASB Associated Banc $0.43
FE FirstEnergy $0.69
ADS Alliance Data Systems $3.21
CTXS Citrix Systems $1.42
PBCT People’s United Financial $0.34
CAJ Canon $0.27
WST West Pharmaceutical Services $1.42
NVR NVR $61.90
FFIN First Financial Bankshares $0.37
VVV Valvoline Inc $0.37
SAFE 3 Sixty Risk $0.33
ASR Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste $23.55
ORAN Orange $0.24
INTC Intel $1.14
KPELY Keppel Corporation $0.14
SAVE Spirit Airlines -$2.55
CS Credit Suisse -$0.40

 

Friday (April 23)

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
SXT Sensient Technologies $0.75
ALV Autoliv $1.43
SLB Schlumberger $0.18
AXP American Express $1.60
KMB Kimberly Clark $1.93
HON Honeywell International $1.80
RF Regions Financial $0.47
GNTX Gentex $0.49
E ENI $0.42

 

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Vulnerable to Reversal Top

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rallied on Friday, setting another record in the process amid strong earnings from blue-chip companies especially the bank stocks, which continued to rise on bumper quarterly earnings reports.

Morgan Stanley reported a 150% jump in quarterly profit on Friday, helping to boost the performance of Dow components JPMorgan Chase & Co and Goldman Sachs Group as investors continued to bet on a swift economic recovery.

On Friday, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 34081, up 158 or +0.46%.

In other news, the University of Michigan said Friday its preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to a one-year high of 86.5 in the first half of this month form 84.9 in March. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday the U.S. economy is set to take off, but there’s still no reason to start tightening policy.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Friday when buyers took out the previous high at 33862. A trade through 34144 on Monday will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A trade through 31951 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the Dow is ripe for a closing price reversal top.

We’re not going to guess when the pattern will form. We’re not going to sell a new high and hope for a lower close. We’re likely to let it form first then wait for the confirmation. The uptrend is strong so it doesn’t make sense to try to guess until we start to see evidence of sellers.

We do suspect, however, that the top won’t be formed by economic data, but rather a surprise event. Something has to happen that will create enough uncertainty to encourage the longs to start trimming positions.

Short-Term Outlook

A higher-high, lower-close will be the best sign that the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels. The next best sign will be a lower-low, which will make 34144 a new minor top.

A third sign of a top will be the failure to hold the minor 50% level at 33651.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Lower Close Suggests Weak Start on Monday

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures edged lower on Friday but still managed to finish higher for the week. Nonetheless, the markets did post potentially bearish chart patterns on their daily charts, which could put early pressure on them early Monday.

On Friday, June WTI crude oil settled at $63.19, down $0.32 or -0.50% and June Brent crude oil ended the session at $66.77, down $0.17 or -0.25%.

Traders said that prices were likely underpinned by the news that China’s first-quarter gross domestic product jumped 18.3% year-on-year. That news followed a big increase in U.S. retail sales and a drop in unemployment claims released on Thursday.

The big up move for the week, however, was fueled by positive oil demand growth outlooks by both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a bigger-than-expected draw in this week’s government inventories report.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC upwardly revised their global oil demand growth forecasts for 2021 this week to 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd) and 5.95 million bpd respectively.

“Fundamentals look decidedly stronger,” the IEA said in its monthly report.

“The massive overhang in global oil inventories that built up during last year’s COVID-19 demand shock is being worked off, vaccine campaigns are gathering pace and the global economy appears to be on a better footing.”

“As the spread and intensity of the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to subside with the ongoing rollout of vaccination programs, social distancing requirements and travel limitations are likely to be scaled back, offering increased mobility,” OPEC said in the report.

“The global economic recovery continues, significantly supported by unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus,” OPEC said. “The recovery is very much leaning towards the second half of 2021.”

U.S. crude oil stockpiles dropped more than expected as refiners increased activity heading into the summer driving season, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels in the week to April 9 to 492.4 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.9 million-barrel drop.

U.S. gasoline stocks rose 309,000 barrels in the week to 234.9 million barrels, less than analysts’ expectations for a 786,000-barrel rise.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.1 million barrels versus forecasts for a 971,000-barrel rise, the EIA data showed.

Refinery utilization rates rose by 1 percentage point to 85% of overall capacity. That is the highest since March of last year, just before the coronavirus pandemic caused refiners to severely restrict processing activities as demand dove.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – New Minor Support Moves Up to 4142.25

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures closed higher on Friday with the benchmark index breaking another record close. The strength was driven by strong economic data and bank earnings which served as signs of momentum in the U.S. pandemic recovery.

On Friday, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 4176.25, up 13.75 or +0.33%.

Nine of the 11 S&P sub-sectors rose on Friday. The energy and information technology indexes were the exceptions. The, dipping 0.9%, was weighed by lower oil prices, while the latter was marginally lower, the day after its highest-ever close.

In other news, Morgan Stanley reported a 150% jump in quarterly profit on Friday, joining other big banks in posting first-quarter numbers reinforcing hopes of a swift economic recovery.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Friday when buyers took out the previous high at 4166.50.

A trade through 3843.25 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but since the index is up 15 days from its last main bottom, it closed Friday’s session inside the window of time for a closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4101.5 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 4101.25 to 4183.50. Its 50% level at 4142.25 is potential support.

The main range is 3843.25 to 4183.50. If the minor trend changes to down then this will open up the possibility of a further decline into its retracement zone at 4013.25 to 3973.25.

Short-Term Outlook

There is no resistance so it’s important to watch for a few patterns that could signal a short-term top.

Taking out Friday’s low at 4154.25 will make 4183.50 a new minor top. This will be a sign that the selling may be greater than the selling at current price levels.

Taking out 4183.50 then closing lower for the session will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed then this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

It doesn’t make sense to try to pick a top. When you try to short, you’re only feeding the bull.

If this market is going to form a short-term top, it’s not likely to be related to an economic event, but rather surprise news.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Supported by Fed’s Plan to Keep Interest Rates Historically Low

Gold futures hit their highest level in seven weeks on Friday, while posting their best weekly performance since mid-December. The catalysts behind the move were a sharp retreat by U.S. Treasury yields on Thursday and a generally softer U.S. Dollar which drove up demand for dollar-denominated gold.

Gold’s advance came despite robust U.S. retail sales data and a significant drop in weekly jobless claims on Thursday. The price action suggests investors have bought into the Federal Reserve’s call for a surge in economic growth, while holding interest rates at historically low levels until the economy is on solid ground.

On Friday, June Comex gold futures settled at $1780.20, up $13.40 or +0.76%.

In other news, the U.S. released reports on Building Permits, Housing Starts, Preliminary University Consumer Sentiment and Preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations

US Housing Starts Near 15-year High; Consumer Sentiment Rises Moderately

U.S. homebuilding surged to nearly a 15-year high in March, but soaring lumber prices amid supply constraints could limit builders’ capacity to boost production and ease a shortage of homes that is threatening to slow housing market momentum, Reuters reported.

The sharp rebound reported by the Commerce Department on Friday added to robust retail sales in March in suggesting that the economy was roaring after a brief weather-related setback in February. Increasing COVID-19 vaccinations, warmer weather and massive fiscal stimulus are driving the economy, with growth this year expected to be the strongest in nearly four decades.

But caution is starting to creep in among consumers as the course of the pandemic remains uncertain and inflation is showing signs of heating up. Other data on Friday showed consumer sentiment rose moderately in early April.

Housing starts surged 19.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.739 million units last month, the highest level since June 2006. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts would rise to a rate of 1.613 million units in March.

Permits for future home building rose 2.7% to a rate of 1.766 million units last month, recouping only a fraction of February’s 8.8% plunge. They jumped 30.2% compared to March 2020.

Inflation concerns were on consumers’ minds early this month. A separate report from the University of Michigan on Friday showed its preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 86.5 from a final reading of 84.9 in March. Economists had forecast the index would rise to 89.6.

Finally, the survey’s one-year inflation expectation jumped to 3.7%, the highest level in nearly a decade, from 3.1% in March. Its five-year inflation outlook was unchanged at 2.7%.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Weekly Technical Market Insight: 19th – 23rd April 2021

Charts provided by Trading View

US Dollar Index (Daily Timeframe):

According to the US dollar index, the greenback extended the recent retracement slide by 0.7 percent last week and concluded a touch off session lows.

Technical movement observed an early-week retest at the lower side of the 200-day simple moving average, currently circling 92.21. This followed the prior week’s downside breach of the said SMA, movement typically interpreted as a bearish cue. Chart studies also shine light on nearby Quasimodo support coming in from 91.36, with subsequent selling unmasking additional layers of support at 91.00 and 90.00.

For those who read the previous week’s technical market insight, you may recall the report underlined that trend studies have displayed a downside bias since topping in March 2020, shaped by way of clear lower lows and lower highs (black arrows). Interestingly, the 93.43 31st March peak echoes the early stages of a bearish wave within the current downtrend (dashed black arrow).

RSI movement travelled south of the 50.00 centreline last week, implying momentum remains to the downside for the time being. This unearthed support at 41.24, though a break of the level indicates oversold space could be challenged.

  • While an obvious downtrend is evident, the combination of support at 91.00 and Quasimodo support at 91.36 may underpin a short-term bullish scenario this week. A 91.00 breach, on the other hand, hints at bearish conviction, targeting 90.00 support.

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following the three-month retracement slide, demand at 1.1857-1.1352 sparked a resurgence of bullish activity in April, up 2.2 percent MTD. The possibility of fresh 2021 peaks is on the table, followed by a test of ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641).

Spinning lower, on the other hand, shines the technical spotlight on trendline resistance-turned support, taken from the high 1.6038.

Based on trend studies, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.

Daily timeframe:

Largely unchanged reading from previous analysis.

A closer reading of price action on the daily scale reveals EUR/USD voyaged north of the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1900 the week ending April 9th. While interpreted as a bullish signal, buyers and sellers squared off around resistance at 1.1966 at the tail end of last week.

Additional bullish sentiment this week directs the technical radar to another layer of resistance at 1.2058, with further outperformance throwing light on Quasimodo resistance at 1.2278.

Despite the 2021 retracement slide, trend studies show the pair has been trending higher since early 2020.

RSI analysis has the value hovering within touching distance of resistance at 60.30. This follows a trendline resistance breach (taken from the peak 75.97) as well as the formation of a bullish failure swing.

H4 timeframe:

Resistance at 1.1990, sited above daily resistance at 1.1966, capped upside attempts heading into the closing stages of last week. The lack of energy from sellers hints at the possibility of a 1.1990 breach this week, with any bullish bets likely targeting supply at 1.2101-1.2059, which happens to rest on top of daily resistance at 1.2058.

H1 timeframe:

As can be seen from the H1 chart, 1.1956-1.1945 demand proved an effective floor last week, withstanding numerous downside attempts (representing a decision point to break through remaining offers within supply at 1.1956-1.1935).

Trendline support, extended from the low 1.1738, and the 100-period simple moving average at 1.1954, represent additional areas of importance. To the upside, nonetheless, technical analysts will note the 1.20 figure, a widely watched psychological level which may serve as resistance this week. Note that 1.20 resides ten pips above H4 resistance at 1.1990.

Above 1.20 on the H1, resistance is parked at 1.2026 (previous Quasimodo support).

The view from within the RSI oscillator has seen the value weave around the 50.00 centreline since early Thursday. Support to be mindful of rests at 35.45, with resistance tucked inside overbought space at 78.97.

Observed levels:

Long term:

The technical landscape on the bigger picture has buyers at the wheel for now, with monthly price attempting to claw its way out of demand at 1.1857-1.1352. This helps explain the lack of selling around daily resistance at 1.1966.

The above hints at bullish attempts this week, at least until price shakes hands with daily resistance at 1.2058.

Short term:

The bullish vibe stemming from higher timeframes places H4 resistance at 1.1990 in question, along side the 1.20 figure on the H1.

This underscores two possible scenarios:

  • A H1 breakout above 1.20, movement that could interest breakout buyers to H1 resistance at 1.2026, and then daily resistance at 1.2058 as well as H4 supply at 1.2101-1.2059.
  • A test of H1 demand at 1.1956-1.1945 could come about, with buyers likely targeting 1.20, followed by the aforementioned resistances.

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since the beginning of 2021, AUD/USD has been consolidating just south of trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776 high) and supply from 0.8303-0.8082.

Demand at 0.7029-0.6664 (prior supply) is featured to the downside, should we see a bearish showing over the coming months.

With respect to trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

The Australian dollar modestly snapped a three-day winning streak on Friday, within striking distance of resistance at 0.7817. North of the latter, supply at 0.8045-0.7985 is on the radar.

Lower on the curve, the 0.7563 February low has delivered support since March 25th.

Momentum remains above the 50.00 centreline, according to the RSI oscillator. Increased upside momentum this week is likely to elbow things to channel resistance, drawn from the high 80.12.

H4 timeframe:

Largely unchanged reading from previous analysis.

H4 shows price retested 0.7696-0.7715 as demand Thursday and held.

Quasimodo resistance at 0.7800 deserves notice as the next potential ceiling this week, closely stationed by demand-turned supply from 0.7848-0.7867.

H1 timeframe:

Demand at 0.7715-0.7737 served buyers in early trade on Friday, guiding the currency pair to tops around 0.7760, before collapsing back into the jaws of demand. Interestingly, this demand is glued to the upper side of H4 demand at 0.7696-0.7715.

Beneath 0.7715-0.7737, 0.77 is visible, fixed north of demand at 0.7679-0.7695. This is an important area as it was within this base a decision was made to break above 0.77. Should buyers command position off 0.7715-0.7737 this week, the 0.78 level is likely watched as probable resistance (also represents Quasimodo resistance on the H4).

RSI action dipped a toe in waters beneath 50.00 on Friday, threatening possible moves into oversold space, in particular support at 19.40.

Observed levels:

Long term:

The daily timeframe displays scope to approach resistance at 0.7817 this week. Overthrowing this level underscores a possible bullish phase to supply at 0.8045-0.7985.

Short term:

Lower on the curve, H4 is attempting to secure position above demand at 0.7696-0.7715, aided by H1 demand plotted at 0.7715-0.7737. Therefore, a run higher from the aforesaid demand areas this week is on the table, targeting 0.78 on the H1, closely followed by daily resistance at 0.7817.

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following January’s bullish engulfing candle and February’s outperformance, March concluded up by 3.9 percent and marginally cut through descending resistance, etched from the high 118.66.

April, currently down 1.7 percent, is retesting the breached descending resistance, movement that may eventually ignite bullish flow. With respect to long-term upside targets, supply at 126.10-122.66 calls for attention.

Daily timeframe:

Largely unchanged from previous analysis.

Bids and offers were pretty much even on Friday, establishing what’s known as a doji indecision candle.

Despite supply at 110.94-110.29 limiting upside since the beginning of April, the monthly timeframe testing descending resistance-turned support questions further selling. Consequently, the collection of lows around 108.36ish (green oval) could limit downside moves.

Structure beyond said lows point to demand at 107.58-106.85, in conjunction with trendline support, etched from the low 102.59.

In terms of trend on the daily scale, we have been decisively higher since early 2021.

RSI action journeyed beneath support at 57.00, and recently dipped a toe under the 50.00 centreline. This implies momentum remains to the downside for the time being.

H4 timeframe:

The Fib cluster drawn between 108.44 and 108.66 (blue), a zone attached to the upper side of demand at 108.31-108.50, stimulated bullish interest on Friday. Sailing through resistance at 108.99 this week may stir additional buying, with the move perhaps underpinning an approach to supply at 109.97-109.72 (houses a 50.0% retracement within at 109.77).

H1 timeframe:

Demand at 108.60-108.71, an area sharing a connection with the H4 Fib cluster at 108.44-108.66, supported price action into the second half of the week.

109 calls for attention to the upside, while any bearish flow could lead to support at 108.39.

Momentum dipped in line with price action on Friday, with the RSI oscillator now facing trendline support, taken from the low 20.94. It’s also worth pointing out the RSI crossed beneath the 50.00 centreline, indicating the possibility of increased strength to the downside.

Observed levels:

Long term:

Monthly action testing descending resistance-turned possible support, alongside daily price testing an area of support around the 108.36 lows, emphasises a potential bullish atmosphere this week.

Short term:

H4 crossing swords with a Fib cluster at 108.44-108.66, fastened to the upper side of H4 demand at 108.31-108.50, reinforces the higher timeframe bullish vibe.

While the above H4 zones may be sufficient to encourage bullish interaction, Friday’s lacklustre buying from H1 demand at 108.60-108.71 suggests the unit could be headed for H1 support at 108.39 before buyers attempt to make a show. Note the aforesaid support resides within the lower range of H4 demand noted above at 108.31-108.50.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The pendulum swung in favour of buyers following December’s 2.5 percent advance, stirring major trendline resistance (2.1161). February subsequently followed through to the upside (1.7 percent) and refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen since 2018.

Contained within February’s range, however, March snapped a five-month winning streak and formed what candlestick enthusiasts call an inside candle pattern (represents a short-term consolidation with low volatility). A breakout lower would generally be viewed as a bearish signal.

April has offered limited action so far, currently up by 0.4 percent.

Despite the trendline breach, primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way (April high 2018).

Daily timeframe:

Sterling recovered earlier losses against the buck Friday and finished around session tops.

Despite the near-two-month corrective slide, GBP/USD has been trending higher since early 2020.

The technical arrangement on the daily chart remains unchanged. Quasimodo support at 1.3609 is seen, a level associated with a 1.272% Fib expansion at 1.3631, as well as 1.618% and 1.272% Fib extension levels at 1.3614 and 1.3607, respectively. In terms of resistance, April 6th top at 1.3919 is likely considered, closely shadowed by a trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low 1.1409.

RSI movement finished Friday a touch above the 50.00 centreline, suggesting momentum to the upside could continue to gather traction this week.

H4 timeframe:

Latest developments out of the H4 chart reveal Friday crossed swords with trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low 1.3670. Note this structure is sheltered just under resistance parked at 1.3852.

A rejection from the said resistances this week throws light back on a possible 1.3680 support test, while scaling above resistance tips the scales in favour of a push to April 6th top at 1.3919 mentioned above on the daily timeframe, with further outperformance to perhaps take aim at H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.4007.

H1 timeframe:

Friday swept through any offers around 1.38 on Friday and triggered buy-stops. Technicians will note that price formed a bearish outside reversal into the close, alongside RSI action testing a trendline support-turned resistance (taken from the low 27.61).

What’s also technically appealing on the H1 scale this week is the Fib cluster (resistance) around 1.3870.

Observed levels:

Long term:

Although the monthly trendline resistance breach in late 2020 promotes a long-term bullish vibe, traders will likely want to see 1.4376 taken out before committing.

Short term:

Over on the shorter-term charts, buyers face a potential ceiling on the H4 scale at trendline resistance and horizontal resistance at 1.3852. H1 also turns the headlights on a Fib cluster around 1.3870. Given this, between 1.3870 and 1.3840ish, sellers could make an entrance in early trading this week, perhaps zeroing in on the 1.38 figure on the H1.

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – April 17th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum fell by 3.59% on Friday. Reversing a 3.49% gain from Thursday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,426.64.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high and a new swing hi $2,548.00 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,576, Ethereum slid to an early afternoon intraday low $2,307.21.

The extended sell-off saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level at $2,430 and the second major support level at $2,343.

Steering clear of sub-$2,300 levels, Ethereum broke back through the major support levels before a late pullback.

The pullback saw Ethereum fall back through the first major support level to end the day at $2,426 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 1.40% to $2,460.53. A bullish start to the day saw Ethereum rise from an early morning low $2,426.63 to a high $2,460.53.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall back through the pivot level at $2,427 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2,547.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $2,500 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s new swing hi $2,548.00 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $2,700 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,668.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $2,427 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,307 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$2,200 levels. The second major support level sits at $2,187.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,307

Pivot Level: $2,427

First Major Resistance Level: $2,547

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,976

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1,606

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,023

Litecoin

Litecoin rallied by 7.89% on Friday. Following on from a 2.67% gain from Thursday, Litecoin ended the day at $308.75.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $297.00 before hitting reverse.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $296 before sliding to an early afternoon intraday low $266.34.

The sell-off saw Litecoin fall through the first major support level at $271 before rallying to a late intraday high and a new swing hi $319.94.

Litecoin broke back through the first major resistance level and broke through the second major resistance level at $306.

A late pullback, however, saw Litecoin briefly fall back through the second major resistance level before wrapping up the day at $308 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 2.98% to $317.94. A bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rally from an early morning low $308.76 to a high $318.67.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $298 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $330.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Friday’s swing hi $319.94.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Litecoin could test resistance at $350 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $352.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $298 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $277 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the 23.6% FIB of $250. The second major support level sits at $245.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $277

Pivot Level: $298

First Major Resistance Level: $330

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $250

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $207

62% FIB Retracement Level: $138

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP slid by 11.92% on Friday. Following on from a 4.17% decline on Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $1.54981.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.80892 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.8777, Ripple’s XRP slid to a late morning intraday low $1.42051.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the first major support level at $1.6468 and the second major support level at $1.5343.

Steering clear of sub-$1.40 levels, Ripple’s XRP revisited $1.75 levels before falling back into the deep red.

The sell-off saw Ripple’s XRP fall back through the first major support level to end the day at sub-$1.60 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.86% to $1.56312. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning low $1.5390 before rising to a high $1.56443.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to move through the $1.5931 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $1.7657 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from $1.75 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $1.80 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $2.00 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.9815.

Failure to move through the $1.5941 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 and the first major support level at $1.3772 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$1.30 levels. The second major support level sits at $1.2047.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1.3772

Pivot Level: $1.5931

First Major resistance Level: $1.7657

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Gold And Silver Continue To Gain Value As Multiple Events Support Safe-Haven Assets

Rising geopolitical tensions, recent drops in the yield of 10-year Treasury notes, dollar weakness, a highly accommodative Federal Reserve and concern about the rising national debt all collectively moved gold and silver to multiweek highs.

The last time gold traded to $1784 occurred on February 25. On that date, gold opened above $1800 and closed at $1775. The last time gold closed above today’s highs occurred on February 22. This week gold opened at $1745 and gained approximately $30 based on today’s close.

june gold april 16

As of 4:30 PM EST, gold futures basis the most active June 2021 Comex contract is currently trading up $9.80 (+0.55%) and is fixed at $1776.60. Silver basis, the most active May 2021 Comex contract, is currently trading up $0.061 (+0.23%) and fixed at $26.025. This follows yesterday’s strong gains in both precious metals. Seeing as on Thursday, gold futures gained $28.10, and silver futures gained $0.40.

silver April 16

Dollar weakness provided mild tailwinds as the dollar index is currently fixed at 91.54. The dollar traded at 92.21 on Monday and lost 67 points on the week. The result is that the dollar index was devalued by -0.067% this week.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury note traded lower this week and is now yielding approximately 1.56%. This week’s decline also provided solid tailwinds aiding the safe-haven asset class.

On Wednesday, April 14, Chairman Jerome Powell spoke virtually at the Economic Club of Washington DC. He addressed the concern that many economists have about the ever-growing national debt that has been created from fiscal stimulus as well as the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.

In response to these concerns, Chairman Powell said that “The U.S. federal budget is on an unsustainable path, meaning simply that the debt is growing meaningfully faster than the economy. The current level of debt is very sustainable. And there’s no question of our ability to service and issue that debt for the foreseeable future.”

In addition to that there is rising tension between the United States and Russia. Yesterday President Joe Biden signed an executive order imposing new sanctions on Russia based on information suggesting that they had interfered with our election as well as an increased amount of Internet hacking and other “malign activities,” which include sending additional troops to Ukraine as well as the continuation of persecution of Russian dissidents in specifics to Alexei Navalny.

In response to these issues, the White House issued an “Executive Order on Blocking Property with Respect to Specified Harmful Foreign Activities of the Government of the Russian Federation.” The full Executive Order can be read by following this link.

There is also increased tension with China. Today President Joe Biden met with the Japanese Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga. According to CNBC, “The two leaders will gather in Washington in what will be the U.S. president’s first in-person summit with a foreign leader since his January inauguration. The meeting comes as the U.S. seeks to challenge China on issues ranging from human rights to unfair trade practices.”

These events collectively have been the driving force moving both gold and silver to gain value this week. All things being equal, they could continue to drive gold back above $1800 per ounce and silver above $28 per ounce.

For more information on our service, simply use this link.

Wishing you, as always, good trading and good health,

Gary Wagner