EUR/CHF Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

The EUR/CHF pair has been one that simply won’t move. The reason is well known by now as the Swiss National Bank has mandated a “floor” in this pair at the 1.20 level. This area is being intervened at by the Swiss, buying as much as 7 million Euros a minute in the month of May by some estimates. The Swiss have stated that they are willing to buy “unlimited Euros” in order to defend this level, and they look serious. Because of this, there is no long-term trades in this pair. 

EUR/CHF Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis
EUR/CHF Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

AUD/USD rose during the week as the “hopium” trade came back into the markets. The Chinese will be announcing some key economic numbers over the weekend, and as such this pair could be moving quickly on Monday when we all come back to trade. The set up is fairly easy though, as a break above the highs from the week is a buy signal, and a breaking of the lows from the week before is a strong sell signal. We can see that the overall trend is down, but there are so many potential headlines out there that we simply have to find some kind of confirmation as mentioned previously. 

AUD/USD Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis
AUD/USD Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair had a very bearish week overall as it fell from the 1.04 level. The area is considerable resistance, and as a result we could be looking at a set up to return to the longer term consolidation area between 0.99 and 1.04 or so. However, the move has been impulsive enough that we think there is more to it. In fact, we actually prefer to buy this pair if we can get the break of the recent highs that we want to see. Obviously, oil markets will come into play as they always do. 

USD/CAD Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CAD Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

NZD/USD Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair had a bullish week over the last five sessions, and as a result looks as if the bulls are making a bit of a last stand at the 0.75 level. This bounce is predicated on the idea that there is more easing coming out of the Fed, something the Chairman seemed to ignore during the Congressional testimony this past week. With this in mind, there could be a nasty surprise coming in this pair, and we aren’t interested in buying until we clear the highs form this past week on a daily close. On a break below the 0.75 handle – we are aggressive sellers. With all of the headline risks out there, we aren’t comfortable buying this pair at all right now.

NZD/USD Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis
NZD/USD Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Forecast June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver markets fell for much of the Friday session, but as per usual, the Americans came in and bought everything up. The real move could have been short covering, but the candle at the end of the day is the same result – a hammer. The $30 level above is still the hurdle that the bulls will have to get over, and as a result we aren’t willing to buy quite yet. A daily close above the $30 level is enough for us to buy though. As for the downside, it looks to be pretty messy all the way down to the $27 level, and we won’t sell until we are below that level. 

Silver Forecast June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

Crude Oil Prices June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Light Sweet crude market fell for much of the Friday session as the “risk off” trade continued. However, once the Europeans left, the Americans turned it around into a hammer for the session. This looks as if it is an attempt to find more support, but the market is decidedly bearish at this point. The bounce that could be coming will more than likely find a struggle at the $85 to $86 level, and we are ready to sell on the first sign of serious resistance. As for buying, we need to see $90 cleared on a daily close.

Crude Oil Prices June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis
Crude Oil Prices June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Forecast June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets had a fairly quiet day on Friday as the fall from earlier in the week ran out of steam. The longer term trend is still down, and until we close above the previous high in the $2.80 area, we consider the trend intact. Because of this, we only sell this market.

The candle for Friday is essentially an equal doji, and as a result we have a nice sell signal if we break lower than the low from Friday’s session. This should have the market looking for the $2 level again in our eyes. If we break higher however, we simply will wait until we get a weak candle to sell.

Natural Gas Forecast June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

Gold Price June 11, 2012, Technical

The gold markets originally fell for the Friday session, but as per usual, the Americans stepped in once on their own to push all risk related assets up. The Friday session often features a lot of short covering, and this could be the case during this session. With the weekend coming up, there are a lot of traders that simply won’t hold over the weekend, and thus Friday almost always sees some kind of reversal in the waning hours of the week.

The real question of course is whether or not this move will continue. After all, the candle for the session looks very promising, and there is certainly some support in the area below. The market has been bearish overall lately, and at this point it might be a bit difficult to get overly excited about going long. The $1,640 level above was the original hurdle we mentioned a few sessions back for the bulls to overcome, and they didn’t. This is because the Dollar continues to be bought overall. As long as there is a big unwind of Dollar shorts, this market will continue to struggle.

The $1,500 level below is the “line in the sand” that we are paying attention to in order to determine a longer-term trade. If we manage to break below it and close down there, we would become bearish overall in this market, and start shorting aggressively. Until this happens, we cannot sell gold as it continues to bounce from time to time.

As for buying this market, there are a lot of signals that could suggest this. The supportive candle here and there and the surge above the aforementioned $1,640 level would serve us as buy signal. The gold market will continue to get pushed around by the headlines coming out of Europe, and the fact that we had this bounce on Friday has us wondering whether or not it is true, or short covering. With this in mind, we are keeping a wide range from which to place any trades. We still think this area that we are in is going to be choppy, and until we break above the $1,640 level, or below the $1,500 level – we are staying away.

Gold Price June 11, 2012, Technical
Gold Price June 11, 2012, Technical

Silver Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver markets has a fairly volatile five sessions as the world tries to solve the idea of what is going on in Europe, China, and the United States. While the Dollar rising in value can work against the value of silver in general, the fact that silver is used for so many industrial applications makes this market a bit more difficult than gold to gauge at times. On one hand, the Dollar fell for the session on Friday, but one still has to be leery of the industrial demand for silver and other such commodities.

The demand for silver will certainly be under assault as the Chinese are slowing down, and the Europeans are going into a hard recession in some countries. Simply put, there won’t be a lot of trade going on. With the problems in Europe, we suspect that there will be a somewhat continued move into the US dollar, and this will continue to weigh upon the precious metals complex. The $30 level looks to be our “trigger point”, meaning that the market is a screaming buy above that level for us. On a daily close, we would be long.

However, looking at the other side of the trade, there is the $27 level that would have us aggressively selling silver as it would show another leg down in this market. The move down would probably be fairly brutal at that point as the momentum will certainly have shifted to the downside at that point.

The market is essentially stuck in a $3 range for our money, and as a result we may be flat for some time. However, once one of those levels gets broken, it will become obvious to many that the market is getting ready to move again. As this market can move rather wickedly once it makes up its mind, it is probably best to wait until the signal is obvious before getting involved.

While there are some who will choose to trade within this range, we wish them well. The volatility in silver at the moment is far too strong for us to risk our capital on.

Silver Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

Crude Oil Prices for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Light Sweet Crude markets had a fairly benign week in the end as the candle for the week looks a lot like a “dead cat bounce”. The fall in this market has been steady, strong, and certain. There is no way to look at this as a market we should be buying, and as such we prefer to sell the rallies at this point on weakness. The daily chart can be used for the signal itself, but we are respectful of the boundaries set by the weekly chart. If we get below the $80 – we add to our shorts. 

Crude Oil Prices for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis
Crude Oil Prices for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Natural Gas markets attempted to rally during the week, only to fall and form a shooting star at the bottom of the range. This signals that the market is starting to lean heavily to the downside again, and it is because of this that we prefer selling. (Not to mention the trend being so obviously bearish.)

The breaking of the bottom of the weekly range will be a strong sell signal, and have us selling aggressively as the floodgates could be getting ready to open up again. The buying of this market isn’t even a thought to us until we get above the $3 level, something that looks very unlikely at this point. 

Natural Gas Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

Gold Prices for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical

The gold markets had a fairly benign looking week over the last five sessions as the markets continue to try and sort out what is going on in Europe. The rush to the Dollar will have been the biggest hindrance to the value of gold, and as such this market has been very volatile, but going nowhere in the end.

The problems in Europe continue to push money into the United States, and as such the Dollar will naturally be working against gold prices. However, it must be noted that the support just above the $1,500 level looks fairly strong so far. In fact, we measure this market by that level as far as trend. If we are above it, then we think this market is a long-only one, (when you are involved that is) and if we are below that level, this market is a sell-only one. The level is that important to the direction of gold as far as we can see.

The debt crisis in Europe is far from over, but the strong rally here and there can still happen and as a result, we can see this market go much higher suddenly. Certainly, the market has been volatile in general, and a massive move of $50 a day can certainly appear from time to time. This market isn’t one of our favorites at the moment as there are simply far too many risks in trading it. However, if we are to be forced to pick a direction, it would be to buy close to the $1,540 level.

The gold market is essentially stuck in a $100 range between the $1,540 and $1,640 with the “ultimate bottom” being at the $1,500 level. The long-term prospects for gold are pretty good, but with the “risk on, risk off” attitudes of the markets, we are going to have to give the market a wide birth before taking on a new position. The risks are far too great for us to trade any differently. As such, we buy above the $1, 640 level and sell below the $1,500 level. 

Gold Prices for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical
Gold Prices for the Week of June 11, 2012, Technical

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 11-15, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: In the USD/JPY trade, trying to pick tops or bottoms during that time would have been difficult. However, with the bull trend so dominant, the far easier and smarter trade was to look for technical opportunities to go with the fundamental theme and trade with the market trend rather than to trying to fade it.
Against the Japanese yen, whose central bank held rates steady at zero, the dollar appreciated 19% from its lowest to highest levels. USD/JPY was in a very strong uptrend throughout the year, but even so, there were plenty of retraces along the way. These pullbacks were perfect opportunities for traders to combine technicals with fundamentals to enter the trade at an opportune moment. 

  • The interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan(BoJ) and the Federal Reserve
  • Japanese government intervention to maintain their currency sends USD/JPY lower

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY declined on Friday after a strong week. The pair closed at 79.46 as shown at the chart below.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 08, 2012

79.46

79.71

79.73

79.12

-0.31%

Jun 07, 2012

79.71

79.30

79.79

79.21

0.50%

Jun 06, 2012

79.31

78.74

79.39

78.61

0.72%

Jun 05, 2012

78.74

78.35

78.95

78.11

0.49%

Jun 04, 2012

78.36

78.07

78.42

77.99

0.35%

The Japanese currency witnessed solid gains in the previous week, which acted as a worrying factor for the Bank of Japan. Every now and then, the officials of BOJ were giving assurance that they are monitoring the yen and they are struggling to calm down the strengthening currency. They had also warned that they will intervene in the Forex market anytime if the currency keeps on moving up further. This week, we saw yen falling against US dollar as the Finance Minister said that the G-7 nations will support the intervention in the currency market. The currency continued the weak trend on account of suspected intervention.

The Japanese yen gained against all its majors in the past week and notched up gains of more than 2% against the greenback. The demand for safer assets and a fall in the greenback kept the Yen on a higher note. Going forward this week, the economic data is expected to weaken slightly as the Leading Index and Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter come in lower. This could be slightly negative for the economy and the currency. So, this week, based on the slightly weaker economic conditions in Japan, we expect the currency to weaken. However; the losses would be limited as demand for safe-haven assets still remains strong. Overall, we expect the currency to remain in a range for the coming week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks. 

Major Economic Events for the week of June 4 – 8 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun 5

AUD

Cash Rate

3.50%

3.50%

3.75%

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.7

53.6

53.5

AUD

GDP q/q

1.3%

0.5%

0.6%

Jun 6

AUD

Employment Change

38.9K

-2.2K

7.0K

AUD

Unemployment Rate

5.1%

5.1%

5.0%

Jun 7

USD

Unemployment Claims

377K

381K

389K

JPY

Current Account

0.29T

0.62T

0.79T

AUD

Trade Balance

-0.20B

-0.92B

-1.28B

Jun 8

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

-49.4B

-52.6B

Historical:

Highest: 108.00 on Sep 19, 2008

Average: 87.08 over this period

Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY and NZD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 11

23:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity m/m

 

-0.6%

Jun 12

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

 

4

12th-14th

NZD

REINZ HPI m/m

 

-0.3%

23:50

JPY

Core Machinery Orders m/m

 

-2.8%

Jun 13

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

 

0.8%

21:00

NZD

Official Cash Rate

2.50%

2.50%

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Press Conference

   

 

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

 

 

 

Jun 14

1:00

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

 

3.1%

 

 

 

USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 11-15, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: The Canadian Dollar moves in reaction to the US Dollar. Movements are small and easy to track and trade. The Canadian Dollar also responds to economic reports within Canada. It has little action against foreign currencies except during major moves or crisis.

The USD/CAD is the single biggest beneficiary of rising oil prices. Canada which is already the biggest exporter of oil to the US will experience a boost to its economy when oil price continue to increase. Therefore, if oil rises the Canadian dollar is likely to follow. Over the past years, the correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil prices has been approximately 81%. 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/CAD spent the week in the red, as the Looney just had no luck or strength. All week long, eco data from Canada disappointed markets and the currency continued to tumble. The pair ended the week at 1.0260.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 08, 2012

1.0260

1.0273

1.0355

1.0260

-0.13%

Jun 07, 2012

1.0273

1.0285

1.0296

1.0211

-0.12%

Jun 06, 2012

1.0285

1.0369

1.0373

1.0272

-0.82%

Jun 05, 2012

1.0370

1.0379

1.0426

1.0362

-0.09%

Jun 04, 2012

1.0379

1.0443

1.0447

1.0370

-0.61%

As shown in the chart below Ivey PMI came in above forecast, but employment fell, the trade balance fell and building permits declined. There just wasn’t anything positive out of Canada which remains under pressure as crude oil continues to decline.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of June 4 – 8 actual v. forecast for the Canadian & US Dollar

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun 5

CAD

Building Permits m/m

-5.2%

-0.3%

4.9%

CAD

Overnight Rate

1.00%

1.00%

1.00%

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.7

53.6

53.5

USD

Unemployment Claims

377K

381K

389K

Jun 7

CAD

Ivey PMI

60.5

53.5

52.7

CAD

Employment Change

7.7K

10.0K

58.2K

Jun 8

CAD

Trade Balance

-0.4B

0.2B

0.2B

CAD

Unemployment Rate

7.3%

7.3%

7.3%

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

-49.4B

-52.6B

Historical:

Highest: 1.0842 CAD on Nov 01, 2009.

Average: 1.0147 CAD over this period.

Lowest: 0.9407  CAD on Jan 26, 2011.

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Canadian Markets.

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

  Jun 13

12:30

CAD

NHPI m/m

0.3%

Jun 14

12:30

CAD

Manufacturing Sales m/m

1.9%

 

NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 11-15, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:


The NZD/USD  ended the week on a strong note at 0.7704 after a difficult week.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 08, 2012

0.7704

0.7682

0.7721

0.7619

0.29%

Jun 07, 2012

0.7682

0.7703

0.7753

0.7665

-0.27%

Jun 06, 2012

0.7703

0.7588

0.7710

0.7584

1.50%

Jun 05, 2012

0.7589

0.7590

0.7604

0.7521

-0.03%

Jun 04, 2012

0.7591

0.7510

0.7595

0.7502

1.08%

 The surprise lending rate reduction by the PBoC and the hardcore stance of the ECB and the Feds, gave mixed signals to the Asian markets.

The New Zealand dollar has fallen after the Federal Reserve failed to signal further US economic stimulus, damping kiwi sentiment lifted by China’s unexpected benchmark lending rate cut.

It rose as high as 77.52 US cents overnight, the highest since May 11 on speculation the Chinese rate cut will underpin the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke helped erase the kiwi’s advances after signaling the world’s largest economy remains at risk from Europe’s debt crisis, but didn’t call for consideration of additional stimulus.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical

Highest: 0.8816 USD on Jul 31, 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6619 USD on Jun 07, 2010.

Major Economic Events for the week of June 4 – 8 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun 5

AUD

Cash Rate

3.50%

3.50%

3.75%

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.7

53.6

53.5

AUD

GDP q/q

1.3%

0.5%

0.6%

Jun 6

AUD

Employment Change

38.9K

-2.2K

7.0K

AUD

Unemployment Rate

5.1%

5.1%

5.0%

Jun 7

USD

Unemployment Claims

377K

381K

389K

JPY

Current Account

0.29T

0.62T

0.79T

AUD

Trade Balance

-0.20B

-0.92B

-1.28B

Jun 8

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

-49.4B

-52.6B

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY and NZD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 11

23:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity m/m

 

-0.6%

Jun 12

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

 

4

12th-14th

NZD

REINZ HPI m/m

 

-0.3%

23:50

JPY

Core Machinery Orders m/m

 

-2.8%

Jun 13

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

 

0.8%

21:00

NZD

Official Cash Rate

2.50%

2.50%

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Press Conference

   

 

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

 

 

 

Jun 14

1:00

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

 

3.1%

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 11-15, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: Natural gas is nevertheless a major commodity in its own right, which is used for everything from cooking food to heating houses during the winter. Natural Gas is growing much faster than either of its non-renewable fossil fuel competitors, oil and coal.

Do not miss the weekly U.S. gas inventories report. The figures are issued by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) every Thursday afternoon at 15:30 (released Friday at 15:30 if there was a U.S. bank holiday on Monday). Here’s a link to the latest EIA report. The main natural gas moving figure in there is the change in inventories from the previous week. When it comes to the gas inventories report, we’re talking about billions of cubic feet, Bcf for short.

When the actual change in inventories number is released, it is the deviation from the expected number that is really important. If the actual inventories figure shows a 24 Bcf rise when an 84 Bcf increase was expected, then that is actually positive for the price of natural gas. All else equal, the price of natural gas should rise after the release.

A barrel of oil has roughly 6 times the energy content of natural gas. If the fuels were perfect substitutes, oil prices would tend to be about 6 times natural gas prices. However, due to various market characteristics discussed briefly above and the ease of using oil, the price of oil has been following a pattern of 8-12 times that of natural gas. However that ratio has spiked dramatically since March 2009.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas  saw prices collapse from a high just a week ago of 2.82. After inventories this week showed that the warm weather in the Midwest did not reduce supplies investors sold off pushing the commodity as low as 2.24 to end the week at 2.306 slightly below the projected bottom for the quarter of 2.32-2.36

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 08, 2012

2.304

2.254

2.321

2.232

2.17%

Jun 07, 2012

2.255

2.424

2.438

2.244

-7.01%

Jun 06, 2012

2.425

2.439

2.486

2.398

-0.57%

Jun 05, 2012

2.438

2.429

2.477

2.384

0.39%

Jun 04, 2012

2.429

2.341

2.439

2.318

3.69%

 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical:

Highest: 6.106 on Jan 07, 2010

Average: 3.989 over this period

Lowest: 1.903 on April 19, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

 

Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 11-15, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets.

  • Gold reacts to uncertainty in the markets
  • Gold reacts to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy
  • A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold.
  • Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunities when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets.

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold traded sideways on Friday after bobbing up and down all day. The commodity has declined from a high of 1642.15 earlier in the week to close the week at 1594.35

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 08, 2012

1594.35

1593.15

1596.15

1559.35

0.08%

Jun 07, 2012

1593.05

1623.55

1630.35

1580.75

-1.90%

Jun 06, 2012

1623.85

1619.25

1642.15

1614.85

0.28%

Jun 05, 2012

1619.35

1620.95

1624.85

1613.85

-0.10%

Jun 04, 2012

1621.05

1618.15

1629.55

1610.25

0.19%

Gold prices were quite stable during the initial sessions, as the negative sentiments in Europe limited the downside in gold prices. Later we saw gold prices falling drastically after the Fed chairman gave no hints on the QE3, which dampened the gold’s appeal as a safe haven. Prices fell below $1600 for the first time in the week on Friday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of June 4 – 8 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun 5

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.7

53.6

53.5

GBP

Construction PMI

54.4

54.5

55.8

Jun 6

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

1.00%

1.00%

1.00%

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

303.8B

 

237.6B

Jun 7

CHF

CPI m/m

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

GBP

Services PMI

53.3

52.6

53.3

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

6.04|3.3

 

5.74|2.4

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

325B

325B

325B

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

USD

Unemployment Claims

377K

381K

389K

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.5%

-1.2%

-1.4%

Jun 8

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

-49.4B

-52.6B

 

 

 

 

 

Historical

Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011

Average: 1418.48 over this period

Lowest: 1026.95 on Oct 28, 2009

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and CHF

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 11

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.9%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance

 

-19%

Jun 12

5:45

CHF

SECO Economic Forecasts

   

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

0.9%

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

 

0.1%

Jun 13

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

 

-0.1%

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.3%

Jun 14

7:30

CHF

Libor Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

7:30

CHF

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

   

7:30

CHF

SNB Press Conference

   

8:00

CHF

SNB Financial Stability Report

   

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

   

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

 

2.4%

GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 11-15, 2012, Forecast

Introduction:  While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair makes for good trades, with the new austerity program implemented in the UK, the GBP is moving more on Fundamentals now.

  • The interest rate differential between the Bank of England(BoE) and the Federal Reserve
  • High yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The GBP/USD closed the week at 1.5472 on a negative note. Even with the USD losing momentum the sterling could not gain.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 08, 2012

1.5472

1.5522

1.5525

1.5404

-0.32%

Jun 07, 2012

1.5522

1.5481

1.5600

1.5430

0.26%

Jun 06, 2012

1.5481

1.5384

1.5516

1.5376

0.63%

Jun 05, 2012

1.5384

1.5396

1.5409

1.5322

-0.08%

Jun 04, 2012

1.5396

1.5349

1.5416

1.5342

0.31%

For the first two days of the week, we did not see any drastic movement in the Pound as UK markets were closed, as the nation was celebrating its Diamond Jubilee. Later we saw pound reacting to the ECB meeting outcomes as the ECB officials were showing readiness to ease the crisis, thereby reducing the possible harm to the UK’s economy. UK’s construction PMI dropped during the week on account of decline in the business confidence. Country’s HPI data came in positive, which helped the currency to move higher thereby indicating improvement in the housing market conditions. Bank of England held a meeting during the week, wherein the officials decided to keep the bank rate unchanged at 0.5%. They made no changes in the stimulus program, thereby lifting the currency higher.  Now the market participants will be focusing on the minutes of the meeting, which will be published on 20th June 2012. GBP/USD closed at 1.54 levels, as compared to 1.5358 levels last week.

From across the pond a series of poor data last week (ended 1st June, 2012) in the form of rising unemployment rate and drop in the PMI had prompted the investors to rush towards US treasuries. The weak data made the market participants expect another round of monetary easing by the Fed to support the economy. This week we saw some positive economic data such as rise in the services PMI, encouraging the growth of the economy. Along with that we saw the Unemployment claims of the US falling, thereby reflecting positive signs of the labor market conditions.

Several FOMC members put forth their views regarding the state of the economy and future plans. They showed their readiness to take appropriate actions if the country needs boost at any point in time. Then came the significant speech by the Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, where he preferred to keep the market guessing about the QE3 till FOMC meet on June 19th-20th. Dollar Index closed at 82.78 levels, as compared to 82.79 levels last week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks. 

Major Economic Events for the week of June 4 – 8 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun 5

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.7

53.6

53.5

GBP

Construction PMI

54.4

54.5

55.8

Jun 6

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

1.00%

1.00%

1.00%

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

303.8B

 

237.6B

Jun 7

CHF

CPI m/m

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

GBP

Services PMI

53.3

52.6

53.3

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

6.04|3.3

 

5.74|2.4

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

325B

325B

325B

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

USD

Unemployment Claims

377K

381K

389K

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.5%

-1.2%

-1.4%

Jun 8

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

-49.4B

-52.6B

 

Historical:

Highest: 1.681 USD on Nov 17, 2009.

Average: 1.5807 USD over this period

Lowest: 1.3506 USD on Jan 23, 2009.

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and CHF

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 11

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.9%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance

 

-19%

Jun 12

5:45

CHF

SECO Economic Forecasts

   

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

0.9%

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

 

0.1%

Jun 13

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

 

-0.1%

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.3%

Jun 14

7:30

CHF

Libor Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

7:30

CHF

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

   

7:30

CHF

SNB Press Conference

   

8:00

CHF

SNB Financial Stability Report

   

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

   

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

 

2.4%

EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 11-15, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: Out of the major currency pairs the most popular and easy to trade currency pair is the EUR/USD. It has become so popular with traders these days that even when there is no visible trade to be had it is yet traded as a matter of habit. This is of course something that should be avoided and any investor who trades this currency pair wisely can do so successfully with sizable profits at the end of the day.

The first thing with trading currencies is to realize that the EUR/USD is made up of two separate currencies although considered to be one unit when taken as a pair. The weaknesses and strengths of each currency have to be taken into consideration when trading the unit as it influences the final outcome. Another factor that is often overlooked by traders or investors is that the weakening of one currency along with the strengthening of the other currency in the pair results in the generation of pips. It is according to this that entry and exit from the Forex market has to be done in order to maintain profitability.

  • The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Federal Reserve(FED)
  • Dollar strength drives EUR/USD lower
  • FED intervention to weaken the dollar the sends EUR/USD higher

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The EUR/USD spent the week on the negative sentiment rollercoaster trading in a range between 1.26 and 1.23, weakened on global risk aversion and safe haven trading. The pair finished the week at 1.2517

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 08, 2012

1.2517

1.2568

1.2572

1.2436

-0.41%

Jun 07, 2012

1.2568

1.2576

1.2625

1.2541

-0.07%

Jun 06, 2012

1.2577

1.2461

1.2586

1.2442

0.93%

Jun 05, 2012

1.2461

1.2527

1.2542

1.2411

-0.53%

Jun 04, 2012

1.2527

1.2399

1.2528

1.2386

1.04%

European currency started the week with a rebound against US dollar, as the markets were eagerly waiting for the outcome of the G-7 meeting and the ECB meet. After recovering slightly against the greenback, euro resumed its weak trend as the rating agency, Moody’s downgraded the credit rating of several German and Austrian banks, as the banks are not capable of absorbing the losses. In the meanwhile, we heard the Spanish treasury minister saying that the Spain is facing lot of problems in refinancing its debt and that the country will find it difficult to rescue itself from this situation. Turning towards the G-7 meeting, the ministers and the bankers in the G-7 discussed about the financial and the fiscal union in Europe with major focus being on the Spain and Greece. During all these negative sentiments, currency still rebounded. The ECB officials took a neutral stance and kept the rates unchanged at 1% and postponed the policy changes for the month of July.

Where as in the US, a series of poor data last week (ended 1st June, 2012) in the form of rising unemployment rate and drop in the PMI had prompted the investors to rush towards US treasuries. The weak data made the market participants expect another round of monetary easing by the Fed to support the economy. This week we saw some positive economic data such as rise in the services PMI, encouraging the growth of the economy. Along with that we saw the Unemployment claims of the US falling, thereby reflecting positive signs of the labor market conditions.

Several FOMC members put forth their views regarding the state of the economy and future plans. They showed their readiness to take appropriate actions if the country needs boost at any point in time. Then came the significant speech by the Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, where he preferred to keep the market

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks. 

Major Economic Events for the week of June 4 – 8 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun 5

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.7

53.6

53.5

GBP

Construction PMI

54.4

54.5

55.8

Jun 6

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

1.00%

1.00%

1.00%

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

303.8B

 

237.6B

Jun 7

CHF

CPI m/m

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

GBP

Services PMI

53.3

52.6

53.3

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

6.04|3.3

 

5.74|2.4

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

325B

325B

325B

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

USD

Unemployment Claims

377K

381K

389K

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.5%

-1.2%

-1.4%

Jun 8

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

-49.4B

-52.6B

 

Historical:

Highest: 1.5091 USD on Dec 03, 2009.

Average: 1.3709 USD over this period.

Lowest: 1.19 USD on Jun 07, 2010.

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and CHF

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 11

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.9%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance

 

-19%

Jun 12

5:45

CHF

SECO Economic Forecasts

   

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

0.9%

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

 

0.1%

Jun 13

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

 

-0.1%

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.3%

Jun 14

7:30

CHF

Libor Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

7:30

CHF

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

   

7:30

CHF

SNB Press Conference

   

8:00

CHF

SNB Financial Stability Report

   

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

   

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

 

2.4%

EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 11-15, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.

  • The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
  • European and UK economic data
  • Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP ended the week at 0.8091 as the euro continued trading on negative sentiment and in response to the on again off again risk aversion theme of the markets.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 08, 2012

0.8091

0.8096

0.8098

0.8071

-0.07%

Jun 07, 2012

0.8097

0.8124

0.8131

0.8065

-0.33%

Jun 06, 2012

0.8124

0.8101

0.8124

0.8051

0.28%

Jun 05, 2012

0.8101

0.8136

0.8141

0.8088

-0.43%

Jun 04, 2012

0.8136

0.8078

0.8137

0.8067

0.72%

Both the BoE and the ECB held rates at meeting this week offering no help to the local economy or boosts to the currency.

Moody’s downgraded the credit rating of several German and Austrian banks, as the banks are not capable of absorbing the losses. In the meanwhile, we heard the Spanish treasury minister saying that the Spain is facing lot of problems in refinancing its debt and that the country will find it difficult to rescue itself from this situation. Turning towards the G-7 meeting, the ministers and the bankers in the G-7 discussed about the financial and the fiscal union in Europe with major focus being on the Spain and Greece. During all these negative sentiments, currency still rebounded. The ECB officials took a neutral stance and kept the rates unchanged at 1% and postponed the policy changes for the month of July.

For the first two days of the week, we did not see any drastic movement in the Pound as UK markets were closed, as the nation was celebrating its Diamond Jubilee. Later we saw pound reacting to the ECB meeting outcomes as the ECB officials were showing readiness to ease the crisis, thereby reducing the possible harm to the UK’s economy. UK’s construction PMI dropped during the week on account of decline in the business confidence. Country’s HPI data came in positive, which helped the currency to move higher thereby indicating improvement in the housing market conditions. Bank of England held a meeting during the week, wherein the officials decided to keep the bank rate unchanged at 0.5%. They made no changes in the stimulus program, thereby lifting the currency higher.  Now the market participants will be focusing on the minutes of the meeting, which will be published on 20th June 2012

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of June 4 – 8 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun 5

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.7

53.6

53.5

GBP

Construction PMI

54.4

54.5

55.8

Jun 6

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

1.00%

1.00%

1.00%

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

303.8B

 

237.6B

Jun 7

CHF

CPI m/m

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

GBP

Services PMI

53.3

52.6

53.3

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

6.04|3.3

 

5.74|2.4

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

325B

325B

325B

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

USD

Unemployment Claims

377K

381K

389K

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.5%

-1.2%

-1.4%

Jun 8

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

-49.4B

-52.6B

 

Historical:

Highest: 1.2336 EUR on Jun 29, 2010.

Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 0.7950 EUR on May 16, 2012

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and CHF

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 11

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.9%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance

 

-19%

Jun 12

5:45

CHF

SECO Economic Forecasts

   

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

0.9%

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

 

0.1%

Jun 13

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

 

-0.1%

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.3%

Jun 14

7:30

CHF

Libor Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

7:30

CHF

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

   

7:30

CHF

SNB Press Conference

   

8:00

CHF

SNB Financial Stability Report

   

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

   

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

 

2.4%