EUR/USD Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair rose slightly during the Monday session as the selloff that we saw last week took a bit of a breather. The area that the pair sits in at the moment is the start of fairly significant support, so a bit of a bounce would more than likely be expected by many participants in the market.

The real level of support is lower, at the 1.30 handle. However, the clusters of orders can be seen all the way to the 1.3250 level, and this is what will make this pair so difficult to break back down for the bears. None the less, it is kind of hard to think of too many reasons to buy this pair as well. In fact, this is a very choppy and undesirable pair to many in the markets at the moment, which is ironic considering it is the first one many traders are encouraged to trade in order to learn the markets.

The headlines continue to cause issues in Europe, and the most recent headlines about Spain failing to meet the target debt to GDP ratio does nothing to make the markets calm going forward. However, the selloff last week more than likely has the market thinking that the selloff had already absorbed that bad news.

The 1.3250 level has been a bit of a “midpoint” in this recent trading range, so taking a trade at this level is going to be difficult, and wouldn’t be the smartest move in our opinion. However, one must keep an eye on the market as it can also be used to measure the risk sentiment in the currency markets. This in turn can give you a hint as to whether or not you want to own or sell certain currencies such as the US dollar or Swiss franc.

The market is still in a downtrend for our money at the moment, but we do recognize that the next 200 pips to the downside are more than likely going to be difficult for the bears to take. With this in mind, we are waiting to see reaction at either 1.30 or 1.35 to give our next clues.

EUR/USD Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

 

USD/JPY Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair fell for most of the session on Monday, but bounced later in the trading day to form a nice hammer. The pair looks like it is still willing to go higher, and this latest pullback may actually be a one-day event. The 0.8150 level now looks a bit supportive, and the pair also looks very constructive in general. 

The 80 level is now our signal. If we can stay above that mark, we are willing to buy dips that show support, such as the Monday candle as we are going to add to our long position if we can break above the Monday highs.. Until we close on the daily timeframe below the 80 level, we are not willing to sell under any circumstance. 

USD/JPY Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/JPY Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

GBP/USD rose after first falling on Monday. The 1.58 level acted yet again, this time as support. The pair does look fairly healthy, and the fact that the 1.58 is now acting as support instead of resistance suggests that we are going to make a real attempt at breaking above the 1.60 level. The breaking higher and above that level would be massively bullish for this pair, and would have us holding onto any long positions.

The breaking higher over the Monday highs would have us be willing to buy this pair, with the caveat of knowing the 1.60 level is resistive. However, it is at that point that we are going to place stop losses at breakeven, and let this trade at least try to breakthrough and onto larger profits. Selling isn’t a thought at the moment.

GBP/USD Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
GBP/USD Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair rose for most of the session on Monday, but lost much of its upward momentum to selloff in later trading hours. The fall produced a shooting star in this pair, and at the bottom of a significant fall. This normally signals continuation, and with the recent trend being to the downside, we are most comfortable selling. However, we understand that the 0.83 level will more than likely offer support. We are selling on rallies, and more importantly – when we get a daily close below the 0.83 level. 

EUR/GBP Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
EUR/GBP Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/CHF Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair fell a bit during the Monday session, after skyrocketing the couple of sessions before that. The 0.91 level has been broken above and we think this area should offer at least some support, all the way down to the 0.90 level. The pair recently bounced off of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and looks quite healthy at this point. The Swiss will certainly be punished by the weak EU economy, and the US economy is starting to pick up a bit. With this in mind, we think this trend continues. We like buying dips in this pair. 

USD/CHF Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CHF Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

EUR/CHF Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The EUR/CHF continued to grind sideways just above the well-known floor of 1.20 in this pair, as dictated by the Swiss National Bank for the Monday session. The pair can only be bought because of this, and the recent tight range makes this even more difficult. However, there is something to be said for “free” pips, and this pair is offering that at the moment.

The selling off of this pair continues to offer easy trades, as the market won’t necessarily test the patience of the SNB too far. The falls in price have all offered short-term buying opportunities, and we think that the closer we get to the 1.20 mark, the more we want to buy. A break of the hammer’s top on Monday would also have us considering a buy as well. We aren’t aiming for much – maybe 20 – 30 pips, but this is about as “safe” of a trade that you will ever get in Forex markets.

EUR/CHF Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
EUR/CHF Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair fell during the Monday session as the consolidation in this market continued. The 1.08 level has continued to show real strength as a resistive level, and the 1.06 level has been very supportive at the same time. Because of this, the pair looks as if it is simply taking a rest after the nice run up it had from the previous move. The 1.04 below is still very supportive as well in our view, and we still think 1.12 is a doable target in the end. On signs of support at 1.06, we are willing to buy, and if we don’t get it – we are even more interested at the 1.04 level. 

AUD/USD Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
AUD/USD Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair rose on Monday as the price of oil sat fairly still. The market is now entering the recent consolidation area of 0.99 to 1.0050 or so. This should offer a bit of resistance, but with the way the pair has acted lately, it is hard to think of any potential set up as nothing more than a short-term trade in the making.

The parity area all the way up to 1.01 is going to be resistive, so we aren’t ready to go long just yet. However, the support that we see from present levels all the way down to 0.97 makes us leery of selling either. Quite frankly, this isn’t a market that interests us at this point in time. 

USD/CAD Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CAD Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

NZD/USD Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD fell on Monday, as the pair broke down from the recent consolidation area that was marked at 0.8450 and the 0.8250 level. The pair looks a bit weak at this point, but in the bigger scheme of things, this pair is still very bullish overall. Because of this, we are willing to let the pair fall a bit and “comeback to us”. The 0.82 level could be supportive, and the 0.80 will most certainly be so. On a sign of support at either level, we are willing to buy this pair. A break above the 0.450 level has us holding onto the pair for the longer-term. 

NZD/USD Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
NZD/USD Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

Oil Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Light Sweet Crude markets rose very slightly by the end of the session on Monday to form a hammer just above the $105 level. The market is still bullish as the $105 level still holds firm as support. The Iranian situation will continue to push prices around, and we think that this market is in a “buy only” mode. This is especially true as long as we are above the $100 level. The $110 level above should continue to act as a resistive barrier, and the market will have to fight rather hard to get through. However, the $115 level is still our target, and we are willing to buy on a break of the Monday highs. 

Oil Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
Oil Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets have been overly bearish for the last year or so, and the trend looks as if it is picking back up again. The supply in the gas markets is far too large for the demand to take it all in, and as such there is little hope of the market rising for any significant amount of time. The increasing concerns over Middle Eastern troubles also has started to kick in the conversation in America about utilizing more of the country’s massive 14 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves as it is so abundant, cheap, and much more secure than oil supply from places like the Persian Gulf.

Recently, we saw a bit of an attempt to rally this market, and formed a symmetrical triangle. The triangle broke a week ago, and now we use the height of that triangle to project the move down. Based upon that triangle, we are expecting to see natural gas hit the $2 mark before too long, and it is through this prism that we look at the markets for our trades.

The gap down for the session on Monday is a massive signal to sell yet again, even though the market is massively oversold at this point. Of course, in the more near-term, we see the recent consolidation as the rest before the continued fall, and this gap certainly does nothing to dissuade us from selling more. In fact, we will continue to add to the short position until we get to the $2 mark.

The rallies going forward will only add to our positions as it allows us to sell more at a higher price. The market can’t be bought as there is simply far too much in the way of bad news for the natural gas markets to rise over time, as the new technologies allow gas drilling in places that previously weren’t possible. With this in mind, we are selling any and all rallies and new lows. The gap from the start of Monday should now be resistance as well, as this trend continues.

Natural Gas Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

Gold Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The gold markets fell slightly during the Monday session in an otherwise quiet day. The gold markets have recently sold off, but the underlying reasons for gold strength still remain. Certainly, the world hasn’t suddenly become a more stable place, and the Europe situation isn’t going away anywhere too soon.

The recent selloff from the $1,800 level was brutal, and since then – we have seen the market sit still. This is the kind of market we were looking for in order to get long of this contract again. The governments around the world are more often than not working to devalue their currencies. The easy monetary practice practiced by these central banks will almost always push money into the gold markets to store value and wealth.

The $1,700 level continues to be supportive, and we like the way this market has calmed down after such a massive fall. This in fact is exactly what we were waiting for, and now we look at the candle from the Monday session as a signal in and of itself, as it is a hammer right on the supportive $1,700 handle. Because of this, we think that we are about to see a rise in the value of gold, and would be willing to buy on a break of the top of Monday’s range, as it shows sellers losing the momentum that they have enjoyed over the last few sessions. 

The breaking of the bottom of the Monday range would in fact be a very bearish signal, but we don’t like the idea of selling gold as a whole, so would probably ignore this signal. The market is very technical, and we think that we have a line in the chart that tells us exactly where we should be. As long as we are above the $1,500 level, we will only buy this market. Of course, we won’t do it randomly, but based upon the price action that forms in the market. Any supportive candles at a $50 interval will be considered going forward as a buy signal. We won’t sell until we get below the $1,500 level, and we don’t see this happening anytime soon.

Gold Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
Gold Forecast March 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

 Against  the USD/JPY , the dollar was trading at ¥81.41, falling from ¥81.81. Worries about the world economic growth and recovery disturbed investors in early trading.

Yesterday Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, in his annual state-of-the nation report to China’s parliament, reduces growth for 2012 of 7.5 percent. That would be the slowest pace of expansion since 1990 and well down on last year’s 9.2 percent growth rate.

In the Asian Session Tuesday, Crude-oil slipped, following falls across equity markets amid concerns about slowing global growth.

Oil had dipped in the US market to close below $107 a barrel but continued to be pressured by a mixed bag of economic data and China’s cut to its economic growth target. Dropping to 106.70

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key cash rate on hold at 4.25% Tuesday, as expected. RBA Governor Stevens said, “Recent information is consistent with the expectation that the world economy will grow at a below-trend pace this year, but does not suggest that a deep downturn is occurring. With growth expected to be close to trend and inflation close to target, the board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate for the moment.”

From the USA on Monday:  Only a dire situation would call for the Federal Reserve to buy more assets, and that is unlikely given the better-looking economic data, a top central bank official said on Monday. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, an outspoken policy hawk, added that he was perplexed by Wall Street’s continued preoccupation with the possibility that the Fed could engage in a third round of large-scale buying of assets

The services sector expanded at its fastest pace in a year in February helped by a gain in new orders and as the housing market shows signs of stabilizing. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 57.3 in February last month from 56.8 in January, in sharp contrast to economists’ expectations for a drop to 56.1. It was the index’s highest level since February 2011. 

Major Greek bondholders announced their support for a deal that will deeply cut the value of their holdings as their contribution to keeping the country afloat. The steering committee of creditors, which includes 12 major investors in Greek bonds and was involved in drawing up last month’s landmark deal, said it would accept the bond swap offer

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

GBP

 

 

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.6B 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Average Cash Earnings (YoY) 

0.0%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

00:30     AUD       GDP (QoQ)                                     0.7%                      1.0%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.                           

13:15     USD      ADP Nonfarm Employment        205K                      170K                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)      0.8%                      0.7%                     

 13:30    USD       Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)             1.2%                      1.2%

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

20:00     NZD      Interest Rate Decision                2.50%                    2.50%                   

 20:00    NZD      RBNZ Rate Statement                                                                                                  

 20:00    NZD       RBNZ Monetary Statement          

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.           

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly Monetary Policy Statement outlines how the bank will achieve its inflation targets, how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement’s release.                                                        

 23:50    JPY        GDP (QoQ)                                                        -0.2%                     -0.6%                    

23:50     JPY        GDP Price Index (YoY)                                 -1.6%                     -1.6%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

 The AUD/USD  has fallen after Australia’s central bank decided to leave the cash rate on hold. The AUD finished Monday’s local session at 1.0619 US cents.

The AUD fell against the greenback as China cut its growth target to the lowest level since 2005, sapping demand for growth-linked assets including the Australian Dollar.

On Monday, Premier Wen Jiabao, in his annual state-of-the nation report to China’s parliament, reduces growth for 2012 of 7.5 percent. That would be the slowest pace of expansion since 1990 and well down on last year’s 9.2 percent growth rate.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key cash rate on hold at 4.25% Tuesday, as expected. RBA Governor Stevens said, “Recent information is consistent with the expectation that the world economy will grow at a below-trend pace this year, but does not suggest that a deep downturn is occurring. With growth expected to be close to trend and inflation close to target, the board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate for the moment.”

From the USA on Monday:  Only a dire situation would call for the Federal Reserve to buy more assets, and that is unlikely given the better-looking economic data, a top central bank official said on Monday. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, an outspoken policy hawk, added that he was perplexed by Wall Street’s continued preoccupation with the possibility that the Fed could engage in a third round of large-scale buying of assets

The services sector expanded at its fastest pace in a year in February helped by a gain in new orders and as the housing market shows signs of stabilizing. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 57.3 in February last month from 56.8 in January, in sharp contrast to economists’ expectations for a drop to 56.1. It was the index’s highest level since February 2011. 

Major Greek bondholders announced their support for a deal that will deeply cut the value of their holdings as their contribution to keeping the country afloat. The steering committee of creditors, which includes 12 major investors in Greek bonds and was involved in drawing up last month’s landmark deal, said it would accept the bond swap offer

Monday, Premier Wen Jiabao, in his annual state-of-the nation report to China’s parliament, reduces growth for 2012 of 7.5 percent. That would be the slowest pace of expansion since 1990 and well down on last year’s 9.2 percent growth rate.

In the Asian Session Tuesday, Crude-oil slipped, following falls across equity markets amid concerns about slowing global growth.

Oil had dipped in the US market to close below $107 a barrel but continued to be pressured by a mixed bag of economic data and China’s cut to its economic growth target. Dropping to 106.70

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

GBP

 

 

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.6B 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Average Cash Earnings (YoY) 

0.0%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

 

Economic Events:  (GMT)

00:30     AUD       GDP (QoQ)                                         0.7%                      1.0%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.                           

13:15     USD      ADP Nonfarm Employment         205K                      170K                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)      0.8%                      0.7%                     

 13:30    USD       Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)             1.2%                      1.2%

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

20:00     NZD      Interest Rate Decision                 2.50%                    2.50%                   

 20:00    NZD      RBNZ Rate Statement                                                                                                  

 20:00    NZD       RBNZ Monetary Statement          

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.           

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly Monetary Policy Statement outlines how the bank will achieve its inflation targets, how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement’s release.                                                        

 23:50    JPY        GDP (QoQ)                                     -0.2%                     -0.6%                    

23:50     JPY        GDP Price Index (YoY)               -1.6%                     -1.6%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of the Asian session)

 The NZD/USD  fell against the greenback as China cut its growth target to the lowest level since 2005, sapping demand for growth-linked assets including the kiwi. The New Zealand dollar fell to .8147 cents from 0.8206 cents after manufacturing and services in the euro zone contracted more than expected.

Monday, Premier Wen Jiabao, in his annual state-of-the nation report to China’s parliament, reduces growth for 2012 of 7.5 percent. That would be the slowest pace of expansion since 1990 and well down on last year’s 9.2 percent growth rate.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key cash rate on hold at 4.25% Tuesday, as expected. RBA Governor Stevens said, “Recent information is consistent with the expectation that the world economy will grow at a below-trend pace this year, but does not suggest that a deep downturn is occurring. With growth expected to be close to trend and inflation close to target, the board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate for the moment.”

From the USA on Monday:  Only a dire situation would call for the Federal Reserve to buy more assets, and that is unlikely given the better-looking economic data, a top central bank official said on Monday. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, an outspoken policy hawk, added that he was perplexed by Wall Street’s continued preoccupation with the possibility that the Fed could engage in a third round of large-scale buying of assets

The services sector expanded at its fastest pace in a year in February helped by a gain in new orders and as the housing market shows signs of stabilizing. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 57.3 in February last month from 56.8 in January, in sharp contrast to economists’ expectations for a drop to 56.1. It was the index’s highest level since February 2011. 

Major Greek bondholders announced their support for a deal that will deeply cut the value of their holdings as their contribution to keeping the country afloat. The steering committee of creditors, which includes 12 major investors in Greek bonds and was involved in drawing up last month’s landmark deal, said it would accept the bond swap offer

Monday, Premier Wen Jiabao, in his annual state-of-the nation report to China’s parliament, reduces growth for 2012 of 7.5 percent. That would be the slowest pace of expansion since 1990 and well down on last year’s 9.2 percent growth rate.

In the Asian Session Tuesday, Crude-oil slipped, following falls across equity markets amid concerns about slowing global growth.

Oil had dipped in the US market to close below $107 a barrel but continued to be pressured by a mixed bag of economic data and China’s cut to its economic growth target. Dropping to 106.70

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

GBP

 

 

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.6B 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Average Cash Earnings (YoY) 

0.0%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 
                         

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

00:30     AUD       GDP (QoQ)                                         0.7%                      1.0%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.                           

13:15     USD      ADP Nonfarm Employment          205K                      170K                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)       0.8%                      0.7%                     

 13:30    USD       Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)              1.2%                      1.2%

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

20:00     NZD      Interest Rate Decision                 2.50%                    2.50%                   

 20:00    NZD      RBNZ Rate Statement                                                                                                  

 20:00    NZD       RBNZ Monetary Statement          

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.           

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly Monetary Policy Statement outlines how the bank will achieve its inflation targets, how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement’s release.                                                        

 23:50    JPY        GDP (QoQ)                                      -0.2%                     -0.6%                    

23:50     JPY        GDP Price Index (YoY)                 -1.6%                     -1.6%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis March 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is available at 106.78, opening today at 106.54. Oil slid around all day staying in a tight range as negative and positive news balanced each side off. The ongoing worries from Iran, matched the news from China, where Premier Wen Jiabao, in his annual state-of-the nation report to China’s parliament, reduce growth for 2012 of 7.5 percent. That would be the slowest pace of expansion since 1990 and well down on last year’s 9.2 percent growth rate. Lower growth, lower demand on oil. Continuing worries over the final Greek outcome continues to worry investors.

President Obama, in his strongest comments so far over the Iranian situation, came out and said directly that he would not hesitate to attack Iran before he would allow them to arm themselves with nuclear weapons.

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis March 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas  has dropped to 2.357 falling almost .05 today. Natural Gas, bottomed, falling as low as 2.352 opening at 2.401. NG has dropped from the high of 2.807 just two weeks ago. Natural Gas is right back where it started on February 1, 2012, when the markets started to inflate.

It is very rare that the FXEmpire team hits a home run, we usually make it to first base, often hit a groundball double, sometime a solid 3 bagger, but an out of the park homerun is unusual. Our overall goal is to provide our readers with accurate information and forecasts, without predicting the markets. The FXEmpire team analyzes data and fundamental information, so that our readers, that do trade have valuable non biased information. Over the past few weeks we have continued to review our analysis and have predicted that Natural Gas will plummet seeking a bottom in the 2.36 range. Since February 29th, we have been forewarning our readers that this drop was coming, We have been continuously informed our visitors that there were no real reasons to support the upswing in Natural Gas and as it climbed near the 2.80 level, our team published an article saying that this was crazy. So every now and then, it is nice to be able to brag and say we called this one right.

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

 

Gold Fundamental Analysis March 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold dropped to 1704.25  just ahead of the 100 day MA which sits at 1694 and should hold some technical support., extending a selloff started in the last week and continued in electronic trading over the weekend, following a weekly loss of 3.7%, as negative data from Europe, China and the U.S. weighed in.

The Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 57.3 in February from a reading of 56.8 the previous month. Economists had expected the index to decline to 56.1.

Another report showed that U.S. factory orders fell, but at a slower than forecast rate in January, declining by a seasonally adjusted 1.0%, compared to forecasts for a 1.3% slide.

Monday March 5, 2012 Economic Data Release actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

5%

 

0.3% 

 

4.7% 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

4.4%

 

2.0% 

 

1.7% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Services PMI 

53.8

 

55.0 

 

56.0 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

In Europe

Euro zone final composite PMI falls to final 49.3 in February

Italy services PMI 44.1 in February. Down from 44.8 in January and well below Reuter’s median forecast of 45.2.

Swiss January retail sales up +4.4% y/y.

Spanish services PMI 41.9 in February. Demonstrably lower than 46.1 in January and Reuter’s median forecast of 45.9.Eighth month of contraction, lowest read since November.

Economic Events: (GMT)

Tuesday will be a very quiet day on the Economic Data Front. Keep an eye on Australia, where the RBA will be announcing rates.

10:00     EUR       GDP (QoQ)                                         -0.3%                     -0.3%      

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.            

15:00     CAD      Ivey PMI                                             62.1                        64.1

The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index is a joint project of the Purchasing Management Association of Canada and the Richard Ivey School of Business. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could affect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements—including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.  

These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.