EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 8, 2021

The Euro is edging higher on Thursday after the release of a Euro Zone producer price report that showed growth accelerated in February. Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the coronavirus pandemic will weigh on Euro Zone growth over the coming months but longer-term risks are receding and growth will pick up once lockdown measures can be lifted.

In the United States, first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose more than expected last week despite other signs of healing in the jobs market, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

First-time claims for the week ended April 3 totaled 744,000, well above the expectation for 694,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The total represented an increase of 16,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised 728,000.

At 12:47 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1886, up 0.0016 or +0.14%.

The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said prices at factory gates in the 19 countries sharing the Euro rose 0.5% month-on-month for a 1.5% year-on-year rise.

Finally, Lagarde said in a statement that echoes the bank’s policy stance after its March meeting, “Overall, the risks surrounding the Euro Area growth outlook have become more balanced, although downside risks associated with the pandemic remain in the near term.”

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on March 31.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 1.1989. A move through 1.1704 will negate the reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This confirms the shift in momentum. On Thursday, a new minor top was formed at 1.1915.

The EUR/USD is currently testing a retracement zone at 1.1888 to 1.1976. This zone is resistance, but it’s also controlling the near-term direction of the common currency.

On the downside, a pair of 50% levels at 1.1847 and 1.1801 are support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1888.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1888 will indicate the presence of buyers. The next target is the minor top at 1.1915. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside with a price cluster at 1.1947, 1.1976, 1.1989 and 1.1990. The latter is a potential trigger point for another acceleration to the upside with 1.2243 the next likely target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1888 could lead to a labored break with potential targets coming in at 1.1847 and 1.1801. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with targets coming in at 1.1738 and 1.1704.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Ultimate Fintech Awards 2021: The Race Is On

The published results will provide traders with a high standard of brokers for their region, language, platform, instruments or partnership requirements.

So what stage are we at now and when will we know the winners? Let’s look at how the awards race is shaping up.

Award Dates

The awards began in February 2021 and will run until June 2021 when the winners will be announced on June 10. Winners will be granted a coveted place on The Ultimate Fintech Leaders List, accessible globally to traders, partners and institutions.

If you haven’t already nominated your broker, there’s still time as voting continues throughout April and May. Nominate your broker for up to 5 award categories here.

How Does It Work?

Nomination Round – During the Nominations period, each brand can apply in up to 5 award categories. You will be asked to submit short explanations covering your eligibility for the preferred categories.

Voting Round – Subscribed and logged in users will be able to cast one vote only so make your vote count! Each subscription is carefully vetted and approved by Ultimate Fintech to ensure authenticity and validity.

TIP – If you want to encourage traders to vote for you, why not add a post to your social media channel?

Award Categories

Which award do you want displayed on your company website and social media? The Ultimate Fintech Awards give brokers the opportunity to show they have been recognised by an established organisation and voted by real traders.

There are a range of awards to be won in specific categories of Global Awards, Regional Awards and Country Awards.

You can also showcase your specialist local prowess with awards like Most Trusted Broker Philippines 🇵🇭, Most Trusted Broker Argentina 🇦🇷 or Best Customer Support Hong Kong 🇭🇰. This level of localisation is proven for boosting acquisition and retention in key FX markets.

The Ultimate Fintech Leaders List will be the industry index of winners. A holy grail for traders looking for the most reputable brokers in the world. Awards also are a great way to showcase your brand, platform, services and customer support.

Nominations are now open so don’t delay, get your broker nominated and join the awards race!

 

March 16th 2021: DXY Lower Ahead of Key Central Bank Meetings

Note—Charts provided by Trading View

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

March, as you can see, remains toying with the upper side of 1.1857/1.1352 demand, with the month currently lower by 1.2 percent.

Price action traders will have noted this demand test, and likely view this as a bullish signal.

Any decisive rebound from the aforesaid demand shifts attention back to the possibility of fresh 2021 peaks and a test of ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641).

In terms of trend, the primary uptrend has been in play since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.

Daily timeframe:

Leaving the 38.2% Fib level at 1.2021 unchallenged, price appears poised to revisit support at 1.1887, a level fixed nearby a 127.2% Fib projection at 1.1843, a 100% Fib extension at 1.1855, and a 200-day simple moving average at 1.1831.

The RSI oscillator, as you can see, continues to navigate terrain south of the 50.00 centreline. Above 50.00, however, resistance is found at 60.30, while to the downside, oversold territory calls for attention.

H4 timeframe:

The technical framework on the H4 scale is interesting.

In terms of resistance, traders are still likely eyeballing 1.2027, should buyers muster enough strength to overthrow last Thursday’s peak at 1.1989.

For support, however, the H4 chart’s spotlight remains firmly fixed between 1.1818 and 1.1860 (Quasimodo support at 1.1818, 161.8% Fib projection at 1.1835, and a 100% extension at 1.1860).

H1 timeframe:

As evident from the H1 chart, volatility thinned heading into London’s session Monday, shaking hands with the 100-period simple moving average and a modest Fib cluster from a 61.8% Fib level at 1.1916 and a 50.00% retracement at 1.1913.

Also calling for consideration is 1.19 support and neighbouring demand at 1.1881/1.1865, along with 1.1950 resistance.

Interestingly, the RSI breached trendline resistance and recently retested the broken line as support. The indicator’s value is currently within touching distance of 50.00.

Observed levels:

In the absence of a bullish presence off the H1 Fib cluster, 1.19 could make an entrance today, with a possible dip to demand at 1.1881/1.1865. Buyers could be drawn to the aforesaid demand, having seen the area share a close connection with daily support noted above at 1.1887.

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

February finished considerably off best levels, establishing what many candlestick fans call a shooting star pattern—a bearish signal found at peaks. What’s also interesting was February’s movement came within striking distance of trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776), sheltered under supply from 0.8303/0.8082. Should sellers regain consciousness, demand at 0.7029/0.6664 is in view (prior supply).

March, as you can probably see, trades higher by 0.7 percent, and remains within February’s range.

In the context of trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

The Australian dollar managed to eke out minor gains against the US dollar on Monday, moulding what many traders may interpret to be a hammer candle—a bullish candlestick formation best found at troughs.

Technical action on the daily chart unearths a trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low 0.5506.

February’s low at 0.7563 also deserves attention as a logical support target should sellers adopt more of a dominant position, with subsequent downside taking aim at demand from 0.7453/0.7384 (previous supply).

Traders who follow RSI movement will note the value to be testing the mettle of the 50.00 centreline, following lows formed at 42.00 earlier last week.

H4 timeframe:

Supply from 0.7811/0.7770 and ascending resistance (drawn from the low 0.7563), and demand coming in at 0.7696/0.7715, remain areas of focus on the H4 chart.

Recent hours witnessed demand welcome price action and propel the currency pair to within striking distance of the aforesaid supply.

Beyond supply, we have demand-turned supply coming in at 0.7848/0.7867—housing a 61.8% Fib level at 0.7859—whereas below current demand, another demand is seen at 0.7601/0.7627.

H1 timeframe:

Coming within a whisker of testing 0.77 bids heading into the US session Monday (closely shadowed by a 61.8% Fib level at 0.7689), formed by way of a near-perfect hammer pattern (bullish signal), AUD/USD bulls dethroned the 100-period simple moving average around 0.7743 and appears on course to revisit 0.78 (supply prior to this level, according to chart structure, seems relatively thin [consumed]) and neighbouring supply at 0.7818/0.7807.

With reference to the RSI oscillator, we can see the line broke through trendline resistance and is on track to perhaps cross swords with another trendline resistance plotted nearby.

Observed levels:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Longer term, the monthly and daily charts suggest sellers are likely to remain behind the wheel until February 2nd low at 0.7563 enters view on the daily scale. However, before sellers make a show, a retest of daily trendline resistance could be on the cards.

Shorter term, it appears buyers could make a stand north of the 100-period SMA on the H1 today, targeting H4 supply priced in at 0.7811/0.7770. Whether or not the unit reaches the 0.78 figure on the H1 is difficult to estimate (located within the upper range of H4 supply).

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following January’s bullish engulfing candle and further outperformance in February, March closes in (up by 2.5 percent) on descending resistance, etched from the high 118.66.

To the downside, support inhabits 101.70.

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Latest movement out of the daily chart watched price action come within two pips of testing Quasimodo resistance from 109.38, before withdrawing and eroding the majority of daily gains. Of particular note is the Quasimodo formation joins hands with the monthly timeframe’s descending resistance.

Price action traders are likely to be watching the aforementioned Quasimodo. However, recognising supply resides at 110.94/110.29, stops above the Quasimodo head (blue arrow—109.85) could be taken.

Areas of note to the downside are support at 107.64—a previous Quasimodo resistance—and supply-turned demand at 107.58/106.85.

With respect to trend, 2021 has firmly pointed to the upside.

Based on the RSI oscillator, the value continues to explore overbought space, hovering a touch beneath resistance at 83.02.

H4 timeframe:

Quasimodo resistance at 109.16 did a reasonably stellar job holding back buyers on Monday, a horizontal level placed below supply drawn from 109.59/109.37 (holds daily Quasimodo resistance at 109.38).

Any downside attempt could have sellers address demand coming in at 108.31/108.50, followed by support at 108.09 and fresh demand parked at 107.81/108.01.

H1 timeframe:

The bullish flag pattern (109.16/108.90) highlighted in Monday’s technical briefing, as you can see, had its upper side breached on Monday. This was followed up with a subsequent retest, aided by 109 psychological support.

According to the pattern’s rules of engagement, the take-profit objective (yellow) is set just south of the 110 figure (109.90).

With respect to the RSI oscillator, on the other hand, we can see the value testing trendline support-turned resistance, but remains circling above the 50.00 centreline.

Observed levels:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Longer term, with daily Quasimodo resistance at 109.38 and the monthly timeframe’s descending resistance joining hands, this area may welcome selling if tested. However, before sellers put in an appearance, a whipsaw to daily supply at 110.94/110.29 could take shape.

The immediate trend facing north since the beginning of the year may help lift breakout buyers above the bullish flag on the H1 timeframe. However, buyers still have their work cut out for them with H4 supply from 109.59/109.37, together with merging daily Quasimodo resistance at 109.38 and the monthly descending resistance, in close proximity.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The pendulum, as you can see, swung in favour of buyers following December’s 2.5 percent advance—movement that stirred major trendline resistance (2.1161).

February followed through to the upside (1.7 percent) and refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen since 2018. March, on the other hand, has so far been lacklustre, down by 0.2 percent as of current price.

Despite the trendline breach, primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way—April high, 2018.

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Thanks to GBP/USD registering a second successive session in the red on Monday, we’re now within close proximity of trendline support, drawn from the low 1.1409, closely shadowed by support coming in at 1.3755.

Quasimodo resistance drawn from 1.4250 is also worth a shout, should buyers enter the scene, while territory beneath 1.3755 elbows Quasimodo support at 1.3609 in the line of fire.

The trend, clearly visible on this scale, has faced higher since early 2020.

The RSI indicator remains buoyed by support between 46.21 and 49.16, with the value seen holding above 50.00.

H4 timeframe:

After testing space beneath Quasimodo resistance at 1.4007 (aligns with a 50.00% retracement) last week, Monday extended its corrective slide to within a pip of 1.3852 support.

Beyond 1.4007, resistance appears thin until the 1.42ish point; beneath 1.3852, demand at 1.3761/1.3789 is seen, followed by another layer of demand at 1.3730/1.3749.

H1 timeframe:

Confirmed by RSI bullish divergence, US trading Monday had price bump heads with clear-cut support at 1.3861—note this level’s recent history holding as both resistance and support at the beginning of March—and retest the lower side of the 1.39 figure.

In the event buyers take on 1.39, and clear the 100-period simple moving average around 1.3923 and tops located just beneath 1.3950, the widely watched 1.40 figure could make a show. Sellers governing control, on the other hand, shines the technical spotlight on 1.38 and Quasimodo support at 1.3786.

Observed levels:

Monthly price remains optimistic above trendline resistance, though before buyers strive for fresh 2021 tops, we may see daily trendline support make an entry, and possibly support at 1.3755.

What the above could mean is we whipsaw through H1 support at 1.3861 (tripping stops) and test H4 support at 1.3852 and nearby daily trendline support. Assuming this comes to fruition, this may be movement we see buyers find interest in.

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.

U.S Dollar Roller-Coaster Pattern Makes Currency Trading Tough

Recent price actions suggest the greenback pared losses that earlier occurred at the first trading session of the week after hitting multi-year lows against the British pound sterling and the Australian dollar.

Currency traders are definitely having a rough ride in 2021 with the world’s most powerful defying expectations in extending its anticipated decline — at least for now. At the time of writing this report, the U.S dollar index used to gauge the strength of the greenback against major global currencies that include the Euro, British pound sterling, Swedish Krona, Japanese yen was trading at 90.400 index points.

However, recent price actions anticipate more pullbacks in the coming hours, though it had earlier reversed two pullbacks in a row as the greenback continues to derive strength from higher U.S Treasury yields.

Currency traders are now focusing on the bigger picture at the world’s largest economy has all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech to Congress in the coming days. The leader of the U.S monetary policy team is expected to echo remarks that they remain resolute in using whatever monetary ammunition at their disposal in supporting the $2o trillion economies.

That being said, global investors will also look for any signal revealing whether the world’s most powerful central bank leader is troubled by steeper long-term borrowing costs after the real rates on long bonds rose above zero for the first time in 8 months

Forecasting the dollar’s direction becomes a tough bet to make as some currency traders are seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, but the tunnel looks more like an uneasy ride. Despite the significant success made since the outbreak of the COVID-19 concerns about new, potentially more tough COVID-19 variants persist.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Form Doji Day Rejecting Lower Levels

Gold prices rebounded on Monday, forming a doji day and rejecting trend line support following Friday’s decline. This comes as the U.S. 10-year yield moved higher and the dollar rose, generating headwinds for the yellow metal. The House of Representatives is moving forward with a second impeachment of Donald Trump. Trump stewed over the weekend as Twitter and Facebook removed his accounts.

Trade gold with FXTM

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Technical analysis

Gold prices rebounded, forming a doji day, which is a consolidating where the open and close are at the same level, which is a sign of indecision. Resistance, which is former support, is seen near the 50-day moving average near 1,868. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,815.  The 10-day moving average crossed above the 50-day moving average, which means a medium-term uptrend is now in place.  Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) line generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

House Democrats Introduce Articles of Impeachment

Democrats in the House of Representatives introduced an article of impeachment against President Trump, accusing him of inciting an insurrection. The House will vote Tuesday on a measure calling for Vice President Pence to use the 25th amendment to remove Trump from office within 24 hours before beginning impeachment proceedings.

Metals/Miners Shifting Gears – Are You Ready For What’s Next? Part II

In the first part of our research, we highlighted our broad market super-cycle trend analysis.  This analysis suggests the global markets are shifting away from a stock market appreciation phase into a depreciation phase.  This shift will likely prompt a new commodities sector appreciation phase to begin fairly quickly.

If you remember how Gold started to move higher in 2003~04 after reaching low price levels in 2001?  My research team and I believe a 9 to 9.5 year appreciation/depreciation cycle takes place in stocks and commodities, and the relationship between the two is inverted.  For example, the bottom in Gold which took place in 2001 also aligned with the end of a US stock market appreciation cycle that started in 1992.  The rally in Gold after 2001 was directly inverted to the new depreciation cycle in the US stock market at that time.  Let’s review these past long-term Appreciation/Depreciation cycles:

Long-Term Appreciation/Depreciation Cycle Phases
Cycle Year Start Stock Market US Dollar Precious Metals
1983 Depreciation Depreciation Appreciation
1992 Appreciation Appreciation Depreciation
2001 Depreciation Depreciation Appreciation
2010 Appreciation Appreciation Depreciation
2019 Depreciation Depreciation Appreciation
2027 (proposed) Appreciation Appreciation Depreciation

If our research is correct, the current Depreciation phase has just started and we are experiencing an “excess phase” (blow-off) top formation in the US and Global stock markets.  This longer-term cycle phase chart (below) helps to illustrate how these cycles work.  Even though some of you may be able to find areas on this chart where the US Stock market did not decline within a depreciation phase, watch how the US Dollar and Gold reacted throughout these phases as well.  It is critical to understand that each of these assets can, and often do, engage in counter-trend phases (at times) when shifts in phase dynamics are more evident.  For example, the peak in the US stock market in 2000 was an example of how the US stock market reacted to a pending phase shift before Gold and the US Dollar began to react efficiently to this phase shift.

Notice how we’ve also drawn the current and next phase of the markets highlighting target ranges out to 2036 and beyond. We suggest taking a minute to read some of our earlier research posts related to these cycle phases so you can better understand how to prepare for the big trends.

Junior Gold Miners Should Rally In Legs – Targeting $95 or higher

Our research team believes the end of the current stock market excess phase will happen sometime in early-to-mid 2021.  The end of this phase will usher in a new phase of capital deployment where investors seek out undervalued assets and hedge risk in the global markets.  Just like what happened after the bottom of the global markets after the 2009-10 credit market crash, it took nearly 2+ years for the markets (including precious metals) to come to the realization that a new stock market appreciation phase had setup.  This took place from 2012 to 2013.  After that shift in thinking took place, investors moved capital into the US stock market and away from hedge assets which resulted in a very strong upward price trend reaching the peak levels we see today.

Our researchers believe the appreciation phase ended in 2019 and we are currently experiencing the same type of “excess phase” (blow-off top) that took place in precious metals in 2012~2013.  The end phase rotation of assets chasing a potentially weakening trend in the global stock market.  When and IF this excess phase ends, commodities and precious metals should really begin to skyrocket higher.

Junior miners, seen in this GDXJ chart below, should begin to move higher in advancing legs.  We’ve drawn these legs on the chart (below) as arrows – showing you how price may advance in the future.  Each advancing leg will “reset” after a brief pause/pullback, then another advancing leg will begin.  Remember, this is a longer-term appreciation phase in commodities and metals that should last through 2026~2027 (or longer).

Junior Silver Miners Should Also Rally In Legs

Junior Silver Miners, SILJ, should begin to advance to levels near $21, then stall for a few days/weeks, then attempt to advance to levels above $28~$30 if our research is correct.  This advance in the Junior Silver miners will not likely peak near $30 though. This rally in metals, miners, and other commodities may last well beyond 2026~27 based on our research.  This type of trend could really turn into a life-changing appreciation/depreciation phase for traders.

It is important that you understand the longer-term cycles that are unfolding and how these cycles present very real opportunities for traders and investors alike.  We deliver these free research articles to highlight our skills and technology solutions which help you stay ahead of market trends.  Our long-term cycle analysis can help long-term investors stay ahead of the pack, and give traders an edge by identifyingthe Best Assets Now to hold and trade. Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you protect and grow your investment and trading accounts.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – December 7th, 2020

EOS

EOS fell by 0.28% on Sunday. Partially reversing a 5.84% rally from Saturday, EOS ended the week down by 1.04% to $3.0001.

A bullish start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning intraday high $3.0401 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $3.0809, EOS slid to an early afternoon intraday low $2.9042.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2.8806, EOS moved back through to $3.00 levels to reduce the deficit on the day.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 0.78% to $2.9768. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $3.0079 before falling to a low $2.9669.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOSUSD 071220 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to move back through the $2.9815 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $3.0587.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break out from Sunday’s high $3.0401.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside. In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $3.15 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $3.1174.

Failure to move back through the pivot level at $2.9815 would bring the first major support level at $2.9228 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer of sub-$2.90 levels. The second major support level sits at $2.8456.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2.9228

First Major resistance Level: $3.0587

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen rose by 2.28% on Sunday. Following on from a 6.54% rally on Saturday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the week down by 9.48% to $0.17602.

A bullish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning intraday high $0.18041 before hitting reverse.

Stellar’s Lumen broke through the first major resistance level at $0.1793 before sliding to an early afternoon intraday low $0.1672.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.1619, Stellar’s Lumen bounced back to $0.176 levels before easing back. A late rally reversed losses from the early afternoon.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down by 1.63% to $0.17304. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning high $0.17642 before falling to a low $0.17203.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 071220 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to move back through the $0.17451 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.18182.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break out from Sunday’s high $0.18041.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Stellar’s Lumen could test resistance at $0.19 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.18772.

Failure to move back through the pivot level at $0.17451 would bring the first major support level at $0.16860 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.16 levels. The second major support level at $0.16129 should limit any downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.16860

First Major Resistance Level: $0.18182

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.09280

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1333

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1989

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX rose by 1.13% on Sunday. Following on from a 3.39% gain on Saturday, Tron’s TRX ended the week up by 0.20% to $0.030815.

It was a mixed start to the day. Tron’s TRX rose to an early morning high $0.03115 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.03122, Tron’s TRX slid to a mid-day intraday low $0.02996.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.02938, Tron’s TRX found support from the 23.6% FIB of $0.0291 going into the afternoon.

Tron’s TRX rallied to a final hour intraday high $0.03123 before easing back. Breaking back through to $0.030 levels, the first major resistance level at $0.03122 pinned Tron’s TRX back late in the day.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 0.71% to $0.03060. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning high $0.03109 before falling to a low $0.03053.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRXUSD 071220 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to move back through the $0.03067 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.03138.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break out from Sunday’s high $0.03123.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, resistance at $0.032 would likely come into play. The second major resistance level sits at $0.03194.

Failure to move back through the $0.03067 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $0.03011 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of the second major support level at $0.02940 and the 23.6% FIB of 0.0291.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.03011

First Major Resistance Level: $0.03138

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0291

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0428

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0648

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Rise Despite Rising Yields as the Greenback Falls

Gold prices moved higher on Wednesday, as the dollar tumbled and yields moved higher. The move in the greenback seemed surprising given the rally in US yields. Riskier assets were mixed. Gold volatility has eased and is currently hovering near the 21% level. Stronger than expected UK CPI helped buoy gold. September’s CPI increased to 0.7% year-over-year from 0.5% in August. Mortgage applications in the US fell which was not expected.

Trade gold with FXTM

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved higher and tested resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,925, but was not able to eclipse this level. Short term support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,908. Short-term momentum has whipsawed and turned positive after recently turning negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal on the upper end of the neutral range. Medium-term momentum remains neutral to positive as the MACD histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory that points to a slow trend higher.

Mortgage Applications Fall

Total mortgage application volume to fall 0.6% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s index. Applications to purchase a home fell 2% for the week, the fourth straight week of declines. Purchase demand is down nearly 7% compared with four weeks ago. Volume, however, is still 26% higher than one year ago.

Indices Take a Break. Time for The USD to Shine

After the surge on Monday, Indices are taking a rest.

Nasdaq is creating a small head and shoulders pattern.

SP500 is drawing a wedge pattern.

FTSE is flirting with a crucial dynamic resistance.

EURUSD came back below crucial horizontal support and broke the lower line of the flag.

GBPUSD is back below 1.3.

EURCHF is attacking the lower line of the pennant.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Surge on Colder Weather Forecast

Natural gas prices surged higher on Friday rising 5.5% and finishing the session off the highs of the day. Colder than normal weather is expected to cover most of the mid-west of the US over the next 8-14 days which will likely buoy natural gas demand. Hurricane Delta is still active in the Gulf of Mexico which has disrupted nearly 20% of the natural gas production. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose three to 269 in the week to October 8. The natural gas rig count dropped by 1 while the oil rig count increased by 4. The EIA forecasts that natural gas production will be down in 2020.

Technical analysis

Natural gas prices rose sharply on Friday falling shy of resistance near a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 2.87. Prices recaptured resistance near the 50-day moving average which is now support near 2.74. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The RSI also shot higher reflecting accelerating positive momentum.

EIA Forecasts Lower Production for 2020

EIA forecasts U.S. dry natural gas production will average 90.6 Bcf/d in 2020, down from an average of 93.1 Bcf/d in 2019. Natural gas production declines the most in the Permian region, where EIA expects low crude oil prices will reduce associated natural gas output from oil-directed rigs. EIA’s forecast of dry natural gas production in the United States averages 86.8 Bcf/d in 2021, down from 2020.

Q3 2020 Recap: Bitcoin Continues Rising Despite Global Uncertainty

Bitcoin Investors Gain 18% Returns in Q3

Bitcoin provided investors the opportunity to grasp a Q3 return of more than 18% even with the substantial losses that came in September. Although the so-called “September Effect” was quite significant, it seems like nothing can prevent BTC from achieving its upside potential.

The pioneer cryptocurrency kicked off the third quarter of the year, hovering around $9,134.88. While prices were mostly contained within a narrow trading range throughout July, the Bollinger bands squeeze on the daily chart suggested that a major price movement was underway. It was until the end of the month that a breakout finally materialized.

Indeed, Bitcoin was able to slice through the $9,500-$9,000 trading range in an upward direction on July 22nd. The breakout was followed by a considerable spike in the buying pressure behind BTC, allowing prices to shoot up by nearly 31.50%. By August 17th, the bellwether cryptocurrency had made a new yearly high of $12,475.91.

Such a milestone was met with a high number of sell orders that were able to contain rising prices at bay. What followed was a 10.80% nosedive that saw Bitcoin retrace to $11,130.34. This price hurdle served as strong support, letting prices rebound and take another aim at the infamous $12,000 resistance level.

On September 1st, BTC had surged 8.43% from the support level previously mentioned to move just a few dollars above the $12,000 mark. But just as it has happened since 2010, it seems like the “September Effect” came into play, crushing bulls’ dreams of higher highs. The exponential increase in sell orders across the board pushed prices down by 18.38%.

As a result, Bitcoin dipped below the psychological $10,000 support level for the first time since July. Sidelined investors seem to have taken advantage of the low prices to re-enter the market. As buy orders began to get filled, BTC was able to recover some of the losses incurred and close Q3 at $10,791.74.

Uncertainty Reigns in the Market

Regardless of the significant returns that Bitcoin was able to generate in Q3, investors remain uncertain about what the future holds. U.S. President Donald Trump has tested positive for COVID-19, and his ability to participate in the upcoming elections may put in danger the stability of the global financial markets. Even though Bitcoin has served as a hedging asset before, it remains to be seen how it will react to the U.S. presidential elections’ results.

From a technical perspective, BTC’s price action will be decided by its ability to break out of the $11,130-$10,330 range where it has been contained over the past two weeks. On the upside, it would likely aim for the $12,500 resistance level, but if sell orders begin to pile up, Bitcoin could plunge to $9,500. Therefore, it is imperative to wait for a clear break of this trading pocket to determine whether the uptrend will resume.

Konstantin Anissimov, Executive Director at CEX.IO

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Gold Closer to $1,900 Price Level Again

The gold futures contract gained 0.86% on Monday, as it retraced some of last week’s decline following breaking below the price level of $1,900. But the market came down to around $1,850 level again yesterday, before moving back closer to $1,900. Recently gold was retracing its rally from around $1,800 to August 7 record high of $2,089.20 in reaction to U.S. dollar rally, among other factors. Gold also broke below mid-August local low, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Gold is 0.1% higher this morning, as it is extending a short-term uptrend. What about the other precious metals? Silver gained 2.21% on Monday and today it is 0.2% higher. Platinum gained 5.87% and today it is 0.7% lower. Palladium gained 2.22% on Monday and today it’s 0.2% lower. So precious metals are going sideways this morning.

On Monday we didn’t get any new important economic data releases. Today we will get the Consumer Confidence number release at 10:00 a.m. And there will be a lot of Fed talk.

The markets are waiting for the important monthly jobs data release on Friday.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Tuesday, September 29

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Preliminary Wholesale Inventories m/m, Goods Trade Balance
  • 9:15 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Williams Speech
  • 9:30 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Harker Speech
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – CB Consumer Confidence
  • 11:40 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Clarida Speech
  • 1:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Quarles Speech, FOMC Member Williams Speech
  • 3:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Quarles Speech
  • 9:00 p.m. China – Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • 9:45 a.m. China – Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Wednesday, September 30

  • 3:20 a.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 8:15 a.m. U.S. – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Final GDP q/q, Final GDP Price Index q/q
  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – GDP m/m
  • 9:45 a.m. U.S. – Chicago PMI
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Pending Home Sales m/m
  • 11:00 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Kashkari Speech
  • 1:40 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bowman Speech
  • All Day, China – Bank Holiday

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Funds Dumping Oil and Fuel Products

Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by speculators such as hedge funds and CTA’s across 24 major commodity futures up until last Tuesday, September 8. The week covered the first major US stock market correction since the March pandemic low. The risk off spread to the other sectors with the dollar rising by 1.2% while the Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped by 3% with heavy losses seen across the energy sector.

Responding to these developments, hedge funds were selective in their approach to the different sectors. A major reduction in bullish bets on crude oil and fuel products was somewhat off-set by the continued buying of several agriculture commodities, most noticeable soybeans, corn and coffee. Overall the net long across 24 major commodity futures was reduced for the first time in 12 weeks by 8% to 1.8 million lots.

Energy

A 13% price drop in the week to September 8 saw funds reduce the combined net-long in Brent and WTI by one-quarter to 390,655 lots, the lowest since April. Short-selling on both contracts jumped with the gross short in WTI reaching 109,683 lots, a level last seen before the historic price crash in late April.

Many speculators react mostly to price developments without too much focus on underlying fundamentals. On that basis, a break below the uptrend from June was required before the price finally moved lower to bring it more in line with weakening fundamentals.

The recovery in global energy demand continues to show signs of stalling. Many countries around the world, especially in Europe and Asia, are now in the midst of a second wave of coronavirus. As a result, the recovery in fuel demand has stalled with work-from-home and the lack of leisure and business travel – both signs that it will take longer than anticipated to get back to the pre-virus level of energy consumption.

Energy

Metals

A quiet week in metals despite stock market weakness and the stronger dollar. Gold bulls added 2% to their net long while silver saw a 5% reduction in response to a near 6% drop in the price. One note of interest was the 41% reduction in the platinum net long to just 6k lots, not far from the April low.

This just before the WPIC in their quarterly outlook changed their 2020 outlook from a surplus to a deficit, citing Covid-19 impact on supply from South Africa and increased investment demand for hard assets.  HG Copper had a quiet week with no change in either the price or the net long which remains elevated near a two-year high.

Precious and industrial metals

Agriculture

The grain sector continued to see strong demand for beans and corn while CBOT wheat longs were scaled back ahead of a monthly report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday. The combined long in the three major crops reached 231k lots compared with a five-year average short of 143k lots.

The grain sector has seen strong gains during the past month as U.S. weather concerns and strong Chinese demand all having helped create a bullish backdrop. The World Agriculture Supply and Demand Report on Friday confirmed the bullish outlook for corn and not least soybeans which reached the highest level since December 2017, corn finished higher while wheat dropped.

Key U.S. crop futures

Soft commodities were mixed with the ethanol link to crude oil driving a 12% reduction in the sugar long while cocoa and coffee continued to be bought. The Arabica coffee long reached a near four year high at 48,450 lots.

Soft commodities

 

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

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This article is provided by Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty. Ltd, part of Saxo Bank Group through RSS feeds on FX Empire

Unchanged Dollar Short During Week of Price Strength

Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by speculators forex, bonds and stocks up until last Tuesday, September 8. The week covered the first major US stock market correction since the March pandemic low. The Nasdaq 100 lost 10% and the S&P 500 5.5% during a week where US megacap stocks took a beating. The risk off spread to the other sectors with the dollar rising by 1.2% while bonds held steady.

Speculators kept an unchanged bearish dollar bet in the week to September 8. This despite broad dollar gains as the US stock market correction reduced the general level of risk appetite. The net short against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index stood at $33.6 billion with the most noticeable changes offsetting each other being buying of GBP and CAD and selling of JPY.

One interesting observation was the lack of reaction to the stronger dollar from speculators holding a near record euro long at 197k lots (€24.5 billion). During the week both long and short positions saw a small reduction which left the overall net unchanged.

Leveraged fund positions in bonds, stocks and VIX

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) every Friday at 15:30 EST with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. The report breaks down the open interest across major futures markets from bonds, stock index, currencies and commodities. The ICE Futures Europe Exchange issues a similar report, also on Fridays, covering Brent crude oil and gas oil.

In commodities, the open interest is broken into the following categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers; Managed Money and other.

In financials the categories are Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Managed Money and other.

Our focus is primarily on the behaviour of Managed Money traders such as commodity trading advisors (CTA), commodity pool operators (CPO), and unregistered funds.

They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged. This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments. It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming.
Share.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

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This article is provided by Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty. Ltd, part of Saxo Bank Group through RSS feeds on FX Empire

BTC Analysis – This Selling is Real or Just More Price Noise?

11,600 to 12,300 continues to hold Bitcoin back

11,600 to 12,300 continues to hold Bitcoin back, BUT at the same time, price has YET to take out any significant support levels. The 11K area continues to hold, and IF compromised, we are then looking at the 10,500 area for the next buying opportunity. It is important to not lose sight of the broader structure which is CLEARLY bullish. In situations like this, smaller magnitude reversal patterns such as the head and shoulder formation carry much less weight.
Also when there is significant selling off of a resistance level, often there is follow through. Meaning. after the initial bearish candle, the following candle often takes out the low and keeps going. At the moment price continues to hesitate ABOVE the 11K support which is a sign that the selling activity is nothing more than noise.
If price reverses again in the low 11Ks, it is more likely to squeeze higher, faster because of all the new shorts that pile in, while over reacting to a single bearish candle that is in the midst of a broader bullish trend. Confirmation of this would unfold when the 12K lower high is taken out. Squeeze momentum can quickly push the 12,300 resistance boundary.

If we are wrong

If we are wrong, and selling momentum increases over the next day or two, then we get stopped out. We measured our risk in advance and once the trade is in play, it is up to the market to do it’s job, or not.  The key take away here is do not be confused by a small magnitude pattern when the broader trend is still intact. If price sets up at the next support, we simply look to buy back in again.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
This article was written by Marc Principato CMT, Executive Director at Greenbridgeinvesting.com.

Dollar Bounces, Gold Slips, while Equities Hold Their Own

In the emerging market space, the liquid and accessible currencies, like the Turkish lira, Mexican peso, and Russian rouble, are down the most. The lira has fallen 1% after intrasession volatility that pushed it to a record low against the euro yesterday. That seems to be the source of the pressure on the lira against the dollar.

The South African rand is among the weakest among emerging market currencies today even though the IMF approved a $4.3 bln loan, the most granted so far to assist in combatting the virus. Despite the correction in the foreign exchange market, equities are mostly firm. In the Asia Pacific region, only a few markets could not sustain gains.

Japan, Taiwan, and Australia were among them. South Korea led the region with a nearly 1.8% gain. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up almost 0.5% after falling for the past two sessions (~2%). US shares are little changed. US bond yields backed up yesterday, with the 10-year yields popping back above 60 bp. This exerted upward pressures in Asia and Europe. Gold reached $1981 before the profit-taking pushed it to about $1907 from where it is recovering. September WTI is little changed around $41.50 a barrel.

Asia Pacific

China is resorting to local lockdowns to combat the new outbreak in the virus. The 61 cases reported Monday were the most in four months. Separately, New Zealand became the latest country to suspend the extradition treaty with Hong Kong. That means that of the intelligence-sharing Five Eyes, only the US has not done so, though it has threatened to do so.

India has banned almost 50 Chinese apps to largely check the workaround the 59 apps banned last month. Another 250 apps are under review. India has cited threats to user privacy and national security. This is a new front in the confrontation with China. The US and Japan are considering their own bans on some Chinese apps.

The dollar is in a quarter of a yen range on either side of JPY105.45, as it is confined to yesterday’s range. The upside correction does not appear over, and the greenback could test previous support and now resistance near JPY106, where an option for $600 mln expires today (and a $1.8 bln option expires Thursday).

The Australian dollar is little changed as it moves within the $0.7065-$0.7180 range that has confined it for around a week now. It has held above $0.7115 today, but it may be retested. The PBOC set the dollar’s reference rate at CNY6.9895 today, nearly spot on where the models suggested. After falling to a four-day low near CNY6.9870, the dollar recovered back above CNY7.0. China seems intent on not allowing the US to get an advantage by devaluing the dollar, something that President Trump has advocated. A stable dollar-yuan rate in a weak dollar environment means that the yuan falls against the CFETS basket. Against the basket, the yuan is at its lowest level in a little more than a month.

Europe

News from Europe is light and the week’s highlights which include the first look at Q2 GDP (median forecast in the Bloomberg survey is for a 12% quarterly contraction), June unemployment (~7.7% vs. 7.4%), and the first look at July CPI (median forecast is for a 0.5% decline for a 0.2% increase year-over-year) still lie ahead.

Today’s focus is mostly on earnings and bank earnings in particular. European banks are being encouraged to extend the hold off of dividend payout and share buybacks that were first introduced in March. This may be worth around 30 bln euros. The UK is fully aboard too. In terms of loan-loss provisioning, European banks are expected to set aside around the same amount as they did in Q1, which was about 25 bln euros. In comparison, the five largest US banks have added a little more than $60 bln in the first half to cushion sour loans.

Fitch lowered its five-year growth potential for the UK from 1.6% to 0.9%. It also took EMU’s potential to 0.7% from 1.2%. This could weaken the resolve of asset managers, where industry surveys suggest a desire to be overweight European stocks and the euro on ideas of economic and/or earnings outperformance. That said, the number of analyst upgrades has surpassed the number of downgrades in Europe for the first time this year.

The euro reached $1.1780 yesterday. As the momentum stalled in Asia, some light profit-taking has been seen that saw it briefly dip just below $1.17 in early European turnover. Intraday resistance is seen near $1.1740-$1.1750. In the recent move, the session high has often been recorded in North America, and we’ll watch to see if the pattern holds today. The market may turn cautious ahead of tomorrow’s outcome of the FOMC meeting.

Sterling poked above $1.29 yesterday for the first time in four months. It made a marginal new high today (~$1.2905), but it too is consolidating. Support is seen in the $1.2830-$1.2850 area. As the euro was trending higher against the dollar yesterday, it also rose to about CHF1.0840, its highest level here in July. However, today’s consolidation has seen the euro slip back to around CHF1.0775. Look for it to find support above CHF1.0760.

America

The US reports house prices, Conference Board consumer confidence, and the Richmond Fed’s July manufacturing survey. Even in the best of times, these are not the typical market movers. The focus instead is three-fold: corporate earnings (today’s highlights include McDonald’s, Pfizer, and 3M), the negotiation over the fiscal bill, and the start of the FOMC meeting. Canada has not economic reports, while Mexico’s weekly reserve figures are due. It continues to gradually accumulate reserves. They have risen by about 4.5% this year after a 3.5% increase last year.

The Economic Policy Institute estimates that a cut in the $600 a week extra unemployment insurance to $200 a week will reduce aggregate demand and cut the number of jobs that were projected to be created. It expects a loss of about 2.5% growth and 3.4 mln fewer jobs. After this week’s FOMC meeting and the first look at Q2 GDP, the US July employment report is due at the end of next week.

It is one of the most difficult high-frequency economic reports to forecast. Still, the outlook darkened after last week’s increase in weekly initial jobless claims, which covered the week that the non-farm payrolls survey is conducted. Another increase, which is what the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey expects, is only momentarily going to get lost in the excitement around the GDP report.

The relatively light news day allows us to look a little closer at Mexico’s June trade data that was out yesterday. Mexico reported a record trade surplus of $5.5 bln. Yet, it is not good news. Mexico is hemorrhaging. The IGAE May economic activity index, reported at the end of last week, showed a larger than expected 22.73% year-over-year drop. The 2.62% decline in the month was nearly three times larger than economists forecast. With the virus still not under control, the government’s forecast for a 9.6% contraction this year is likely to be overshot. The record trade surplus was a function of a larger decline in imports (-23.2%) than exports (-12.8%).

Auto exports are off more than a third (34.6%) this year, to $47.5 bln. Other manufactured exports are down 3.4% to $113.8 bln. Petroleum exports have fallen by nearly 42% in H1 to $8.0 bln. Agriculture exports edged up by 7.3% to $10.5 bln to surpass oil. The peso’s strength reflects not the macroeconomy but its high real and nominal interest rates in the current environment. Yesterday, the dollar fell below MXN22.00 for the first time this month. The June low was near MXN21.46.

The US dollar initially extended its losses against the Canadian dollar, slipping to CAD1.3330, just ahead of last month’s low (~CAD1.3315) before rebounding to almost CAD1.3400. The upside correction could run a bit further, but resistance in the CAD1.3420-CAD1.3440 area may offer a sufficient cap today. The greenback found support against the Mexican peso near MXN21.90 and bounced back to around MXN22.07. Resistance is seen near MXN22.20. The peso is up about 4.5% this month, but within the region has been bettered by Chile (~+6.75%) and Brazil (~+6.15%). The Colombian peso’s almost 2..2% gain puts it in the top 10 best performing emerging market currencies so far this month.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – June 19th, 2020

Bitcoin fell by 0.77% on Thursday. Following on from a 0.64% decline on Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $9,400.0.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin recovered from an early dip to strike a late morning intraday high $9,496.9 before hitting reverse.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $9,606.27, Bitcoin slid to a late intraday low $9,285.0.

The reversal saw Bitcoin fall through the first major support level at $9,300.27 before finding late support.

Bitcoin broke back through the first major support level to $9,400 levels, limiting the loss on the day.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact in spite of last week’s sell-off, with Bitcoin holding well above the 23.6% FIB of $8,900.

For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a bearish day on Thursday.

Binance Coin (-1.53%), Bitcoin Cash SV (-1.49%), Cardano’s ADA (-1.91%), Litecoin (-1.45%), Ripple’s XRP (-1.68%), and Stellar’s Lumen (-1.47%) lead the way down.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (-1.21%), EOS (-1.19%), Ethereum (-1.09%), and Tron’s TRX (-1.03%) also struggled on the day.

Monero’s XMR and Tezos saw relatively modest losses of 0.17% and 0.51% respectively.

Through the current week, the crypto total market cap fell to a Monday low $246.94bn before rising to a Wednesday high $266.87bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $260.24bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 66.60% before sliding to a Wednesday low 65.87%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 66.10%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.48% to $9,355.0. A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall from an early morning high $9,400.0 to a low $9,333.4.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day on Friday.

Binance Coin was up by 0.33% to buck the trend early on.

It was bearish for the rest of the pack, however, with Cardano’s ADA down by 1.05% to lead the way down.

BTC/USD 19/06/20 Daily Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the $9,394 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $9,502.93 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from Thursday’s high $9,496.6. Resistance at $9,500 has continued to pin Bitcoin back since 11th June.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Thursday’s high $9,496.9 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a crypto breakout, Bitcoin could test the second major resistance level at $9,595.87.

Failure to move through the $9,394 pivot level could see Bitcoin struggle on the day.

A fall through the morning low $9,333.4 would bring the first major support level at $9,291.03 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$9,000 levels. The second major support level at $9,182.07 should limit any downside.

Litecoin, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – 30/04/20

Litecoin

Litecoin rallied by 6.68% on Wednesday. Following on from a 2.85% gain on Tuesday, Litecoin ended the day at $48.85.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to an early morning intraday low $45.65 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $44.13, Litecoin rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $50.19.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $46.85 and the second major resistance level at $47.89.

A brief pullback saw Litecoin fall back through the second major resistance level before rebounding to $48 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 3.36% to $50.49. A bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rise from an early morning low $48.63 to a high $50.50.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTC/USD 30/04/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid sub-$49 levels to support another run at the first major resistance level at $50.81.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to breakout out from the morning high $50.50.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level at $50.81 would likely limit any upside on the day.

Failure to avoid sub-$49 levels could see Litecoin struggle later in the day.

A fall through the morning low to sub-$48.20 levels would bring the first major support level at $46.27 into play.

Barring a broad-based crypto sell-off, however, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$49 levels on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $46.27

Major Resistance Level: $50.81

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $62

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $78

62% FIB Retracement Level: $104

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen rallied by 5.04% on Wednesday. Following on from a 1.86% gain on Tuesday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the day at $0.071999.

A mixed start to the day saw fall to an early morning intraday low $0.068109 before striking a late intraday high 0.072823.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Stellar’s Lumen broke through the first major resistance level at $0.071120.

A late pullback saw Stellar’s Lumen ease back to $0.07125 levels before bouncing back.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was up by 0.70% to $0.072504. A bullish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise from an early morning low $0.071586 to a high $0.074387.

Stellar’s Lumen broke through the first major resistance level at $0.073850 early on.

XLM/USD 30/04/20 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to break back through the first major resistance level to bring $0.075 levels into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to breakout from the morning high $0.074387

Barring an extended crypto rally, resistance at $0.075 would likely leave Stellar’s Lumen short of the second major resistance level $0.07569

Failure to break back through the first major resistance level could see Stellar’s Lumen hit reverse.

A fall through to sub-$0.07100 levels would bring the first major support level at $0.06913 into play.

Barring a broad-based crypto sell-off, however, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.070 levels on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $0.06913

Major Resistance Level: $0.07385

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1051

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1433

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2050

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX rose by 5.43% on Wednesday. Following on from a 5.78% gain on Tuesday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.01610.

A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning intraday low $0.015075 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.01455, Tron’s TRX rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $0.016499.

Tron’s TRX broke through the first major resistance level at $0.01583 and the second major resistance level at $0.01636.

A brief pullback to sub-$0.01590 levels saw Tron’s TRX fall back through the second major resistance level.

Finding late support, however, Tron’s TRX bounced back to wrap up the day at $0.01610 levels.

In spite of the rebound, Tron’s TRX failed to break back through the second major resistance level at $0.01636.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was up by 1.60% to $0.016463. A bullish start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise from an early morning low $0.016146 to a high $0.016669.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRX/USD 30/04/20 Daily Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to avoid sub-$0.016 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.01671.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break out from the morning high $0.016669.

Barring a late morning recovery, the first major resistance level at $0.01671 would likely limit any upside.

Failure to avoid sub-$0.016 levels could see Tron’s TRX hit reverse.

A fall back through the morning low to sub-$0.01590 levels would bring the first major support level at $0.01528 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should continue to steer clear of sub-$0.015 levels.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $0.01528

Major Resistance Level: $0.01671

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0322

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0452

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0663

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Secondary Lower Top – First Sign of Short-Sellers

Gold is trading steady to lower late Tuesday in a choppy session with sellers taking direction from firm equity prices and buyers getting some direction from a weaker U.S. Dollar. Fundamentally, traders were moving money out of gold due to the lifting of coronavirus-related restrictions.

Gold investors are paying close attention to what the recovery will look like. Right now the assumption is that a V-shaped recovery will be bearish for gold, while a U or L shape may be more favorable. The shape of the recovery will determine how much gold investors or hedgers will want to hold as a diversifier against risk.

Furthermore, there is the problem with the U.S. Dollar. A scenario where stocks break sharply could drive the U.S. Dollar higher because of safe-haven buying. At the same time, they are likely to sell gold to raise cash to cover losses and to meet margin calls.

If there is a rebound in the number of coronavirus cases or if the curve doesn’t flatten fast enough, we could see a repeat of March. We’ve all seen the playbook so don’t be surprised, just react. If you don’t remember, it started with aggressive dollar-buying. Gold really didn’t start rallying until the central banks and governments started throwing money at the problem.

At 17:29 GMT, June Comex gold is trading $1722.20, down $1.60 or -0.09%.

Daily June Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is trending lower. A trade through $1764.20 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through $1666.20.

The minor range is $1788.80 to $1666.20. Its 50% level or pivot at $1727.50 is controlling the direction of the market this week.

The short-term range is $1576.00 to $1788.80. Its retracement zone at $1682.40 to $1657.30 is support.

The main range is $1453.00 to $1788.80. Its retracement zone at $1620.90 to $1581.30 is major support.

Short-Term Outlook

Based on the price action and the current price at $1722.20, the direction of the June Comex gold into the close on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $1727.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1727.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into $1682.40, followed by $1666.20 and $1657.30.

Bullish Scenario

Overcoming $1727.50 late in the session will signal the return of buyers. They may try to retest the pair of main tops at $1764.20 and $1788.80.

Side Notes

The formation of the secondary lower top at $1764.20 should be noted. This usually indicates the presence of short-sellers, not just profit-takers.

Crude Oil Price Update – Trader Reaction to $12.38 Pivot Will Determine Next Short-Term Move

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading slightly lower at the mid-session after clawing back all of its earlier losses. Oil turned positive shortly after the regular session opening as reopening of economies outweighed fears about dwindling storage capacity worldwide.

Prices were under pressure for a second session after the United States Oil Fund (USO), said it would sell all of its contracts for June delivery beginning Monday, in favor of longer-term deferred contracts.

At 15:46 GMT, June WTI crude oil is trading $11.63, down $1.30 or -5.38%.

The intraday rally was fueled by short-covering. It would be premature to hit the buy button given the current weak demand situation. According to some estimates, as much as a third of worldwide demand has been sapped, which has sent prices tumbling to record lows.

Daily June WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $6.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through $33.15. This is highly unlikely. It also shows how much work buyers are going to have to do to change the trend.

The minor range is $6.50 to $18.26. Its 50% level or pivot at $1238 is controlling the price action so far this week.

The short-term range is $33.15 to $6.50. Its retracement zone at $19.83 to $22.97 is the next upside target and resistance zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at $11.63, the direction of the June WTI crude oil market the rest of the session on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $12.38.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $12.38 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible surge into $18.26 to $19.83.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $12.38 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for a possible retest of the contract low at $6.50.

Side Notes

At 20:30 GMT, traders will get the opportunity to react to the weekly inventories report from the American Petroleum Institute (API). It is expected to show a 12 to 15 million barrel build for the week-ending April 24. The previous week’s report showed a 13.226 million barrel build.