Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Drop and is Poised to Test All-time Lows

Natural gas prices moved lower on Friday, dropping more than3% for the day and down 11% for the week. A larger than expected build in natural gas inventories, in conjunction with warmer than normal weather, has led prices lower. The weather over the next 8-14 days is expected to be warmer than normal according to the most recent report from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices tumbled more than 11% this week, keeping pace with the drop in the equity markets. A decline in LNG exports is reducing demand in conjunction with warmer than normal weather. Target support is the 2016 lows at 1.61. A break of this level would be a fresh low on natural gas prices. Resistance is seen near the 10-week moving average at 1.95.

Weekly momentum is negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices. The fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal in oversold territory. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 4.4, well below the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction.

Th EIA reported that net withdrawal from storage totaled 143 Bcf for the week ending February 21, compared with the five-year average net withdrawal of 122 Bcf and last year’s net withdrawal of 167 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 2,200 Bcf, which is 179 Bcf more than the five-year average and 637 Bcf more than last year at this time. The average rate of withdrawal from storage is 9% lower than the five-year average so far in the withdrawal season. If the rate of withdrawal from storage matched the five-year average of 8.3 Bcf/d for the remainder of the withdrawal season, the total inventory would be 1,876 Bcf on March 31, which is 179 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 1,697 Bcf for that time of year.

EUR/USD Bearish Freefall Drops 200 Pips and Reaches 1.09

Dear traders, the EUR/USD is showing massive bearish momentum. The expected downtrend is now unfolding in 5 waves (orange). Can price action even break the bottom of wave 3 (blue) at 1.0881?

4 hour chart

EUR/USD euro US dollar 4 hour chart

Our EUR/USD wave analysis was expecting a bearish wave 4-5 (green) pattern within a wave C (blue). The bearish breakout indeed confirmed our bearish view. However, the momentum is much stronger than expected. Price could be building a larger bearish wave 3 (rather than a wave C) if it’s able to break below the 100% Fib of wave 2 vs 1 at 1.0881.Also, Ultima EA had massive wins with the +/- 7 shorts on the EUR/USD. The winning streak is sending the account sky high.

1 hour chart

EUR/USD euro US dollar 1 hour chart

The EUR/USD made a pullback pattern after Friday’s NFP event. This has been labelled as wave 1-2 (dark red). Yesterday price was able to break the support line (dotted blue) for a new lower low, again. The bearish impulse remains strong, so the price swing has been labelled as a wave 3 (dark red). The current pullback could be a wave 4 (dark red) as long as price action stays below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 vs 3. A bearish breakout could confirm a move lower towards the Fib targets.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the help of SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading)

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The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers -06/12/19

Bitcoin rallied by 2.77% on Thursday. Reversing a 1.33% decline from Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $7,440.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning intraday low $7,191.0 before finding support.

Steering well clear of the first major support level at $6,948.2, Bitcoin rose to an early afternoon intraday high $7,530.9.

In spite of the breakout from $7,400 levels, Bitcoin came up short of the first major resistance level at $7,709.2.

A pullback through the afternoon saw Bitcoin slide through to sub-$7,400 levels before finding support.

The near-term bearish trend, formed at late June’s swing hi $13,764.0, remained firmly intact.

For the bulls, Bitcoin would need to break out from $11,000 levels to form a near-term bullish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the top 10 cryptos, it was a mixed day for the majors.

Ripple’s XRP and Binance Coin led the way, rallying by 3.53% and by 3.43% respectively.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+2.49%), EOS (+2.24%), Ethereum (+1.84%), and Stellar’s Lumen (+1.40%) also saw solid gains.

Bitcoin Cash SV and Litecoin trailed the pack. While Litecoin rose by 0.31%, Bitcoin Cash SV fell by 0.17% to buck the trend on the day.

Through the current week, the crypto total market cap slid from $203bn levels on Monday to a Wednesday low $195.19bn before hitting a Thursday high $203.71bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $201.32bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance hit 67% levels before easing back, supported by the strong gains on the day. 24-hour trading volumes returned to $70bn levels before easing back.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.72% to $7,386.3. A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall from an early morning high $7,440.0 to a low $7,378.8.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a bearish start to the day for the majors.

With the rest of the pack in the red, Binance Coin led the way, with a 0.70% loss.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (-0.55%), Bitcoin Cash SV (-0.34%), EOS (-0.66%), Ethereum (-0.57%), and Litecoin (-0.33%) weren’t far behind.

Ripple’s XRP and Stellar’s Lumen saw limited losses early on, with the both down by 0.06%.

BTC/USD 06/12/19 Daily Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move back through to $7,390 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $7,583.6.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from this morning’s high $7,440.0.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound on the day, resistance at $7,500 would likely pin Bitcoin back.

In the event of a rebound, Thursday’s high $7,530.9 and first major resistance level would likely limit any gains.

Failure to move back through to $7,390 levels could see Bitcoin struggle on the day.

A fall back through to sub-$7,300 levels would bring the first major support level at $7,243.7 into play.

Barring a crypto meltdown, however, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $7,047.7.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Sterling Falls Into a Range

UK CPI Lowest in Nearly Two Years

The consumer price index in the United Kingdom was reported to rise by 1.5% in the year to October which was the lowest reading since December 2016. It was the third consecutive reading where CPI fell short of the analyst estimate.

Despite the shortfall in the reading, GBP/USD is little changed on the day. The exchange rate has been consolidating for the past two sessions and from a slightly broader perspective, the pair has mostly traded in a range for the past month or so.

The pair shows resilience considering that the dollar has recovered notably. Since the start of the month, the US dollar index (DXY) has been rallying while retracements have been quite shallow. The index is up just over 1% since the start of November and trades at levels not seen since the middle of October. Further, the greenback has advanced against all of its major counterparts in the month thus far.

Economic data later in the session could move the exchange rate out of its range as the latest US CPI figures will be released. Although typically, this release does not accompany a lot of volatility. Unless of course there is a significant deviation from the expectation.

Technical Analysis

There is a significant upside hurdle in play for GBP/USD. It stems from the 20-day moving average and the 50 moving average on a 4-hour chart. It should be noted that the exchange rate has not seen much selling pressure despite this resistance confluence coming into play.

GBPUSD 4-Hour Chart

I think it’s worthwhile keeping a close eye on the dollar here as DXY is trading in oversold territory on the smaller time frames. A pullback in the dollar could provide the fuel for an upside break in GBP/USD.

But while the exchange rate holds below moving average resistance, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. Near-term support is seen at 1.2800 which is a level that held the pair higher in late October.

Bottom Line

  • GBP/USD has fallen into a narrow range.
  • The 50 moving average on a 4-hour chart and 20-day moving average is capping the upside in the pair.
  • US CPI figures will be released later in the US session today.

European Equities: A Week in Review – 08/11/19

The Majors

It was yet another positive week for the European majors, with the CAC40 up by 2.20% to lead the way. The DAX30 wasn’t far behind, rising by 2.06%, while Eurostoxx600 saw a more modest gain of 1.50%.

For the DAX30 and EuroStoxx600, 0.46% and 0.28% losses respectively on Friday pulled back the pair, while the CAC40 ended the day flat.

Corporate earnings and economic data were in focus in the week as was chatter from the U.S and China on trade.

On the trade front, the majors found strong support from news of Beijing and Washington agreeing to rollback some tariffs.

This came off the back of news that Washington was preparing to issue licenses to U.S firms to do business with Huawei Technologies.

Four days in the green out of five delivered the solid gains for the week.

A pullback on Friday came as a result of the news of disagreements within Washington over the removal of tariffs on Chinese goods.

The Stats

It was another busy week on the Eurozone economic calendar.

In a busy first half of the week, October private sector PMIs, Eurozone retail sales figures, and German factory orders were in focus.

On the PMI front, Spain’s manufacturing sector deteriorated further, with the PMI falling from 47.7 to 46.8. The numbers were more upbeat elsewhere, with the French manufacturing PMI rising from 50.5 to 50.7.

In spite of the positive numbers, Italy, Germany, and the Eurozone’s manufacturing PMIs continued to sit at sub-50 levels.

On Wednesday, service sector PMIs were also skewed to the positive. While Spain’s services PMI fell from 53.3 to 52.7, it was positive for the rest of the member states.

The positively skewed numbers led to a rise in the composite PMI from 50.2 to 50.6.

In spite of the positive numbers, the composite PMI remained close to September’s six-and-a-half-year low.

Out of Germany, factory orders rose by 1.3%, reversing a 0.4% decline in August, providing support, with Eurozone retail sales up by 0.1%.

On Thursday, German industrial production figures failed to pin back the European majors, in spite of a 0.6% decline. The upbeat factory order numbers pointed to a pickup in industrial production at the start of the 4th quarter.

German trade data wrapped things up on Friday. A widening in the trade surplus from €18.1bn to €19.2bn failed to make it a 6th consecutive day in the green for the DAX.

The Market Movers

From the DAX, it was a bullish week for the auto sector. BMW led the way for the week once more, rallying by 8.05. Volkswagen and Continental also saw solid gains, rising by 5.22% and 6.94% respectively. Daimler trailed the pack in the week, rising by just 1.52%.

It was also a bullish week for the banking sector, in spite of a sharp pullback on Friday. Deutsche Bank rallied by 4.54%, with Commerzbank up by 2.57%.

From the CAC, the banks also found strong support, reversing previous week losses. Soc Gen led the way, rallying by 9.78%, with BNP Paribas up by 7.50%. Credit Agricole made a more modest 4.33% gain, with a 2.31% slide on Friday limiting the upside.

Credit Agricole’s slide on Friday came off the back of the bank’s quarterly earnings results. While net profit beat estimates, a slide in net income from the retail operation weighed, as net interest income declined in the quarter.

The French auto sector also saw green. Peugeot rose by 3.25%, while Renault eked out a 0.04% gain.

On the VIX Index

The VIX Index fell 1.87% in the week ending 8th November. Following on from a 2.77% decline from the previous week, the VIX ended the week at 12.1.

In spite of 3 days in the green out of 5, the weekly loss came as a result of the U.S and China’s progress on trade talks.

Throughout the week, economic data provided support, with the stats skewed to the negative for the Greenback.

VIX 09/11/19 Weekly Chart

The Week Ahead

It’s a busy week on the Eurozone economic calendar. November ZEW economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone are due out on Tuesday.

Following the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook Report last week, we can expect the majors to be particularly sensitive to consumer sentiment and spending figures.

Eurozone industrial production figures for September will provide direction on Wednesday, ahead of 3rd quarter GDP numbers on Thursday.

Barring a revision to 1st estimate numbers for the Eurozone, Germany’s 1st estimate GDP numbers will have the greatest influence. Forecasts are for the German economy to contract by 0.1%.

The Eurozone’s September trade figures will wrap up the week, with forecasts market positive.

Barring particularly dire numbers, we would expect finalized October inflation figures to have a muted impact throughout the week.

From outside of the Eurozone, expect China industrial production figures, due out on Thursday to also provide direction.

On the geopolitical front, chatter from Beijing and the U.S on trade requires monitoring. There is also UK politics to consider.

There are also corporate earnings to track throughout the week, with Continental and Infineon Tech likely to garner plenty of attention.

Failed Breakouts Take a Heavy Toll on the Oil Bulls

They’ve given up almost all of their gains, closing below the many important resistances they’ve eyed to break above. Heavy selling followed earlier today, and the question is whether we can expect more downside…

Let’s take a closer look at the charts below.

charts courtesy of www.stooq.com

Yesterday, crude oil futures tested the resistance zone created by the red gap, the previous peaks and further reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This combination proved strong enough to stop the bulls once again.

The breakout attempt has been invalidated, and prices moved lower as evidenced by the long upper knot. It clearly shows the area of increasing involvement of the bears.

The futures also tested the declining red resistance line, invalidating the breakout above it in the process. This has brought further deterioration earlier today.

And that hasn’t been the only bearish developments. On the 4-hour chart below, you’ll see that the breakout above the upper border of the purple declining trend channel has also been invalidated.

Connecting the dots, lower prices of crude oil futures are likely ahead of us. If this is the case, the lower border of the purple trend channel and our downside target will be in play in the following days.

Summing up, yesterday’s oil rebound has mostly fizzled out and reversed lower. The many important resistances have stopped the bulls again, and further decline followed earlier today. Our downside target will be likely in play next week, and our short position remains justified.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist

Sunshine Profits – Tools for Effective Gold & Silver Investments


All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The Week Ahead: Brexit, Monetary Policy, Stats and Trade Are in Focus

On the Macro

For the Dollar:

It’s another packed week ahead on the economic calendar, following a busy week last week.

Manufacturing PMI figures kick off the week on Tuesday, with the U.S markets closed on Monday.

We expect the ISM manufacturing PMI to be the key driver, with both employment and orders needing to support.

Market focus will then shift to ADP Employment change and service sector PMI numbers on Thursday.

From the service sector numbers, the markets preferred ISM non-manufacturing PMI will have the greatest impact.

At the end of the week, the all-important labor market figures are due out. Expect nonfarm payroll and wage growth figures to have the greatest impact, assuming the unemployment rate holds steady.

We would expect trade data, factory orders, trade and productivity and unit labor cost numbers to have a muted impact on the Dollar.

Outside of the stats, FOMC member commentary and chatter from Beijing and the Oval Office will need monitoring.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up 1.25% to $98.807.

For the EUR:

It’s also another busy week ahead on the economic data front.

Manufacturing PMI numbers due out on Monday brings the EUR into focus early. Barring deviation from prelim figures, Italy, Spain, and the Eurozone PMIs will have the greatest impact.

With no material stats due out on Tuesday, service sector PMI and Eurozone retail sales figures will provide direction on Wednesday.

We expect the Eurozone’s composite PMI and retail sales figures to have the greatest influence on the EUR.

The focus will then shift to economic data out of Germany. July factory orders on Thursday and industrial production figures on Friday will provide direction.

Barring deviation from 2nd estimates, 3rd estimate GDP numbers for the Eurozone will unlikely to have an impact on the day.

Outside of the numbers, expect Brexit news and trade war chatter to also influence in the week.

The EUR/USD ended the week down by 1.45% to $1.0982.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

The Manufacturing PMI on Monday, Construction PMI on Tuesday and Service PMI on Wednesday will provide direction.

We can expect the Pound to also show some sensitivity to the August BRC Retail Sales Monitor due out on Tuesday.

House price figures, due out on Friday, will likely have a muted impact on the Pound.

Outside of the stats, Brexit will continue to dictate the direction of the Pound throughout the week.

The GBP/USD ended the week down by 0.90% to $1.2156.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the data front.

Labor productivity and trade data will provide the Loonie with direction on Wednesday.

August employment figures and Ivey PMI will also influence on Friday.

The main event of the week, however, is the BoC interest rate decision and release of the rate statement on Wednesday.

GDP numbers released last week were impressive. But, with the U.S – China trade war in full swing and the global economy slowing, a dovish BoC rate statement is expected.

We can expect the Loonie to be particularly sensitive in the run-up to the release of the rate statement.

Market sentiment towards trade and the global economy will also of influence in the week.

The Loonie ended the week down 0.21% to C$1.3311 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the Economic data.

Manufacturing figures and 2nd quarter company gross operating profits due out on Monday will provide direction.

The focus will then shift to July retail sales figures due out on Tuesday. Consumer spending continues to be a key consideration for the RBA. Expect any weak numbers to weigh ahead of the RBA’s September interest rate decision later in the morning on Tuesday.

2nd quarter GDP figures due out on Thursday and July trade data on Friday will also have a material impact on the Aussie.

The main event, however, is the RBA interest rate decision and release of the rate statement.

The RBA had suggested a willingness to provide further rate cuts should the need arise. Did a shift in sentiment towards the U.S – China trade war give the RBA more breathing room?

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.34% to $0.6733.

For the Japanese Yen:

It’s also relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

2nd quarter capital spending and the finalized August manufacturing PMI are due out on Monday.

With no material stats due out on Tuesday, the focus will then shift to the August service PMI on Wednesday.

The key stat of the week, however, is July household spending figures due out on Friday.

Outside of the stats, expect the Yen to find direction from monetary policy decisions, Brexit updates, and chatter on trade.

The Japanese Yen ended the week down 0.84% to ¥106.28 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead, with no material stats due out of New Zealand.

The lack of stats will leave the Kiwi at the mercy of Beijing and Washington and private sector PMIs out of China.

A dovish RBA could also weigh on Tuesday.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down 1.20% to $0.6328.

Out of China:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic data front. Key stats are limited to August’s manufacturing PMI and service PMI due out on Monday and Wednesday respectively.

While we can expect the manufacturing PMI to have the greatest influence, service sector activity will need to hold steady.

Outside of the numbers, trade war chatter will continue to influence. Further positive updates would limit adverse market reaction to any disappointing numbers.

On Saturday, China’s NBS private sector PMI numbers were mixed. Manufacturing sector activity slowed at a marginally quicker pace in August, while service sector activity saw a marginal pickup in sector activity.

The Manufacturing PMI eased from 49.7 to 49.5, while the Service PMI rose from 53.7 to 53.8.

The Yuan ended the week down by 0.86% to CNY7.1565 against the Greenback.

Geo-Politics

Italy Snap General Election: Uncertainty remains on whether a snap general election can be avoided. While the Five Star Movement and Democratic Party had agreed to form a coalition government, M5S demands have raised doubts on whether the coalition will go ahead. Expect news from both parties to influence the EUR and the major European bourses.

Trade Wars:  1st September tariffs came into effect, adding tariffs on an additional $112bn worth of Chinese goods. We can expect further updates through the week, with China likely to be looking for tariffs to be withdrawn before any meaningful talks can proceed. Any escalation and expect risk aversion to hit the markets.

UK Politics: it’s gone from bad to worse for British politics. MPs are due back on 3rd September and we can expect plenty of debate over Brexit and Johnson’s plan to suspend Parliament on 10th.

Court rulings on the Queen’s agreement to suspend Parliament and any progress on a vote of no confidence will have a material impact.

The Rest

The RBA: While the RBA is expected to leave rates unchanged on Tuesday, the RBA rate statement will be key. The effects of the extended U.S – China trade war continue to be reflected in stats globally. Will the RBA need to talk up the prospects of a rate cut before the end of the year?

The BoC: The BoC is also expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday. Better than expected GDP numbers last week suggest that Canada has managed to buck the trend until now. Will the BoC stand pat or raise concerns over the possible impact of an escalation in the U.S – China trade war and deliver a dovish statement?

The FED: FOMC member chatter in the week ahead will give the markets some guidance on what’s to come later this month. For now, expectations are for the FED to deliver a rate cut.

What Will Jackson Hole Bring to Us and Gold?

Jackson Hole 2019 Has Begun

This week is rather light in terms of incoming economic data, with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting being the only exception. Now, investors await the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium scheduled August 22-24 in Wyoming. The conference is one of the most famous and important gatherings of central bankers, policy experts, academics, and leading financial market players, and it is closely followed by investors.

It is very often a major market-moving event, as central banks hint at new policy moves. The best example may be the 2010 symposium when Ben Bernanke announced the second round of quantitative easing, which supported the gold prices. On the contrary, in 2016, Janet Yellen delivered a hawkish speech which pushed the yellow metal downward.

But what should we expect this time? The topic of this year’s conference is “Challenges for Monetary Policy”, so the participants would discuss the implications of divergence in interest rates, QE’s impact on capital markets, the path to normalization, the decline in the natural interest rate, the impact of trade wars and fiscal policy on the central banking, etc.

Draghi and Powell: The Last Meeting in Wyoming

However, investors will be watching specifically for remarks from Mario Draghi and Jerome Powell. The former, who will serve as the ECB President only till the end of October, could hint at new simulative measures that the ECB could announce in September. In particular, we could hear how low can policy rates go. The recent discussion paper by the Bank of Japan concludes the “reversal rate”, at which further declines become contractionary, at minus 1 percent for the Eurozone. We bet that Draghi has already read this paper…

Powell is expected to deliver his speech on Friday. Many investors hope that the Fed Chair signal further interest rate cut. According to the CME, the markets expect two 25 basis point cuts by October and perhaps one more in December. Some people even dream about 50 basis point in September, or even larger stimulus. For example, President Trump tweeted on Monday:

Our Economy is very strong, despite the horrendous lack of vision by Jay Powell and the Fed, but the Democrats are trying to “will” the Economy to be bad for purposes of the 2020 Election. Very Selfish! Our dollar is so strong that it is sadly hurting other parts of the world… The Fed Rate, over a fairly short period of time, should be reduced by at least 100 basis points, with perhaps some quantitative easing as well. If that happened, our Economy would be even better, and the World Economy would be greatly and quickly enhanced-good for everyone!

So yes, Powell is under pressure. However, we believe that he will downplay the potential of a 50 basis point cut in September or of three more interest rate cuts this year. Instead, he may open the door to another 25-basis-point cut but avoid promising anything more. Powell will try to not paint himself into a corner again, especially that the domestic data does not justify more accommodation. Actually, as we reported on Tuesday, the inflation edged up while retail sales surged since the last FOMC meeting.

Implications for Gold

What should the conference in Jackson Hole bring for the gold market? We expect that Powell will be more hawkish than markets are anticipating. If true, we could see disappointment among the equity investors and some downside price action in the gold market. However, the overall tone of the conference could be dovish, as the participants would probably confirm the unfolding global monetary policy reversal. After all, several central banks have decided to cut rates in the past week, while a few major economies are on the verge of or already in a recession. So if Powell expresses responsibility for the global economy or just gives in to pressure, he will deliver what the markets and the President want. Gold would continue to be well-bid, then. But, given the recent good economic data (putting aside the contraction in the industrial sector), we bet that Powell will insist – remember that two members of the FOMC dissented in July – that the July cut was a “mid-course correction”, not the beginning for a new easing cycle. At least for a while longer.

Thank you.

Arkadiusz Sieron
Sunshine Profits‘ Gold News and Gold Market Overview Editor


All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The Crypto Daily – The Movers and Shakers – 19/08/19

Bitcoin rose by 0.99% on Sunday. Partially reversing a 1.36% fall from Saturday, Bitcoin ended the day at $10,332.2.

A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin slide to an early morning intraday low $10,086 before finding support.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $9,989.77, Bitcoin bounced back to an early afternoon intraday high $10,533.

Driven by a broad-based crypto rally, Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $10,480.47.

Unable to break out from $10,500 levels last struck on Friday, Bitcoin eased back to $10,300 levels late in the day.

Sunday’s gain was not enough to reverse a particularly bearish week, however. Bitcoin ended the week down by 10.74%.

For the bulls, the extended bullish trend remained intact in spite of the weekly loss. Bitcoin closed out the week above the 38.2% FIB of $9,734. More importantly, Bitcoin last visited sub-$9,000 levels back in mid-June, holding well above the 62% FIB of $7,245.

The Rest of the Pack,

Across the rest of the top 10 cryptos, it was a sea of green for the majors.

Leading the way on the day were Monero’s XMR and Ripple’s XRP, which rallied by 7.36% and 6.88% respectively.

Litecoin (+4.99%), Ethereum (+4.93%), Tron’s TRX (+4.65%), and Stellar’s Lumen (+4.56%) also saw solid gains on the day.

Trailing the pack, however, were Binance Coin and Bitcoin Cash SV, which saw more modest gains of 1.60% and 1.90% respectively.

In spite of the Sunday bounce-back, the majors saw heavy losses for the week. Litecoin lead the way down, Monday through Sunday, sliding by 15.09%. Also joining Bitcoin with double-digit losses were Tron’s TRX and EOS, which fell by 14.03% and 12.18% respectively.

For the week, Bitcoin Cash SV (-5.97%), Bitcoin Cash ABC (-5.32%) and Monero’s XMR (-3.95%) saw the most modest losses.

The total crypto market cap fell back from $299.98bn last Monday to a week low $253.51bn on Thursday before partially recovering. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $270.27bn.

In spite of Bitcoin’s heavy loss in the week, Bitcoin’s dominance managed to hold onto 68% levels…

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.16% to $10,316. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise from an early morning low $10,280 to a high $10,342.7 before easing back.

Bitcoin steered clear of the major support and resistance levels early on.

Elsewhere, it was red across the crypto-board for the majors.

Monero’s XMR led the way down, falling by 2.19%, with Ripple’s XRP down by 1.07%.

BTC/USD 19/08/19 Daily Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to hold onto $10,300 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $10,548.13.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from $10,400 levels.

In the event of a broad-based crypto recovery, the first major resistance level at $10,548.13 and Sunday’s high $10,533 would likely cap the upside.

Failure to hold onto $10,300 levels could see Bitcoin slide deeper into the red.

A fall through to $10,250 levels would bring the first major support level at $10,101.13 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off through the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$10,000 levels.

In the event of a sell-off, expect Bitcoin to test the second major support level at $9,870 before any recovery.

Stocks and Currencies Recover Despite The Yield Curve Inversion

Moreover, debt markets pulled the stock market down. Long-term bond yields are falling. For the first time in history, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond declined below 2%. Investors do not believe in long-term growth in the U.S., and a weaker economy would not allow the Fed to raise its rates.

Treasury Bonds

Even more negative headings are connected with the inversion of the yield curve. The yield of ten-year U.S. government bonds declined below the yield of two-year bonds. This is perceived as a signal of an almost imminent recession in the coming months, as over the past 50 years it provided only one false signal of such outcome. The inversion of the yield curve also affected the British debt market, which also further increased the pressure on its stocks.

Indices

The most dangerous thing in this situation is that market fears of a recession could end up fuelling further demand for safe havens, further intensifying the anxiety of stock markets.

FOREX

On the other hand, the currency market avoids sharp dynamics. EURUSD slipped from 1.1200 to 1.1150 over the previous two days, while the stock markets have experienced a rather bumpy road.

EUR/USD

GBPUSD is standing at around 1.2050 for the fifth consecutive trading session.

GBP/USD

The strengthening of the Japanese yen turned out to be less impressive than the decline the day before, although the pair is often marked by a close correlation with the dynamics of stock markets.

Gold

Gold returned to growth, rising to $1520, but failed to rewrite the recent highs. Crude oil also declined under $59 but continues to show a series of higher intraday lows. All these are signs that outside the stock and debt markets, the sentiments are far from panic, which can be a positive signal for trading on Thursday.

Asian Markets

Stock indices in Hong Kong and Shanghai are moving away from local lows, adding about 1.4% during the day. Futures on S&P500 moved away from the lows reached the day before, showing growth of 0.7%.

Thus, there is a very high chance that the markets will recover self-possession, and without any fresh disturbing news, they may well return to cautious buying, offsetting the news about the inversion of the yield curve.

This article was written by FxPro

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock markets rally yet again

The S&P 500 has broken the top of the hammer from the previous session, which of course is a very bullish sign. That being said though I see a lot of technical and potential trouble above that could come in and cause issues. Because of this, I am more than willing to short this market at various levels if we get an exhaustive and desperate candle such as a shooting star.

S&P 500 Video 08.08.19

The first area that I am paying attention to is the 50 day EMA which of course is painted in red on the chart. I think any signs of exhaustion in that area could be focused on, as it could give us an opportunity to start selling with what had been a massive break down. Ultimately, I think this is a marketplace that should continue to be noisy to say the least. All things being equal though, I think that the damage that has been done and the continuing issue that we have with the US/China trade relations should cause major issues with risk appetite which of course works directly against the way the stock market works.

I think at this point if you just simply stand back there will probably be another selling opportunity, although I am the first to admit that in the short term we probably will pop a little bit higher. Overall though, I think this is a market that gives us quite a bit of opportunity in both directions, and more of a “two speed market.”

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for May 24, 2019

The Euro is trading slightly higher shortly before the release of the U.S. Durable Goods data at 12:30 GMT. Given yesterday’s sharp rally in response to the weaker than expected manufacturing and services PMI data, today’s durable goods report takes on greater importance.

Yesterday’s news increased the chances of a Fed rate cut later in the year, driving U.S. Treasury yields sharply lower while making the U.S. Dollar a less-attractive asset.

Core Durable Goods Orders are expected to come in at 0.1% and Durable Goods Orders are expected to come in at 2.0%. Weaker-than-expected numbers could trigger another spike to the upside.

At 12:20 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1190, up 0.0008 or +0.07%.

EURUSD
Daily EUR/USD

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum shifted to the upside with the formation of a closing price reversal bottom and today’s subsequent confirmation.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 1.1264. A move through 1.1107 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 1.1324 to 1.1107. Its retracement zone at 1.1216 to 1.1241 is the next upside target.

The short-term range is 1.1264 to 1.1107. Its retracement zone at 1.1185 to 1.1204 is currently being tested. Earlier in the session, the upper or Fibonacci level at 1.1204 stopped the rally at 1.1205.

On the downside, support is a price cluster at 1.1185.

The one-day range is 1.1107 to 1.1205. If 1.1185 fails as support then look for a potential break into its retracement zone at 1.1156 to 1.1144. If the EUR/USD is going to move higher then buyers should come in on a test of this zone.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the price cluster at 1.1185.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1185 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the 1.1204 to 1.1205, followed by the main 50% level at 1.1216, followed by a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1219. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into a resistance cluster at 1.1241 to 1.1242.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1185 will signal the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1174 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a further break into 1.1156 to 1.1144.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock markets continue to Rally

The S&P 500 initially pulled back a little bit during the Globex session but recovered quite nicely and shot straight up in the air as the Americans came on board. We are getting close to some pretty precipitous resistance though, in the form of the 2900 level. If we can finally overtake the 2900 level, then the market is very likely to continue to go to the 2950 handle.

S&P 500 Video 17.05.19

The biggest problem with the market right now is that it’s only going to take a tweet or some type of news item out of China to send the market flailing right back down to earth. The 2800 level seems to be the “basement” at the moment, so therefore I think that any breach of that level would be thought of as serious trouble. I would not be surprised at all to see this market pull back a bit, and perhaps even try to consolidate in this general vicinity.

Again the biggest problem that you’re going to face is that the market is trading solely on emotion right now. Signs of exhaustion at the 2900 level could be looked at as a harbinger of a “lower high”, and the beginning of the next attempt at a longer-term trend change. At this point, I advise most of my clients to stay out of this market as it is simply far too dangerous.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Gold Recovers But Gains Limited By Strong Dollar

Gold is recovering some ground in Thursday as investors are digesting mixed corporate earnings in the United States. Central banks’ decisions from Canada and Japan. Other precious metals such as Copper and Silver are negative.

Corporate earnings from companies such as 3M, Comcast, and UPS are publishing mixed reports on Thursday. Also, the market is now focused on jobless claims and durable goods orders in the US.

Earlier in the day, the Bank of Japan kept unchanged its monetary policy decision with its interest rates at -0.1%. Before, the Bank of Canada did the same with its rates at 1.75%. If something, both central banks are abandoning tightening plans, supporting dollar gains.

The champion dollar index

Gold gains are limited by the rally in the dollar index as the DXY has jumped to trade as high as 98.27, maximum since May 16, 2018. In the last three sessions, the Greenback won over 1.0% from the 97.00 area.

Currently, the dollar index is trading at 98.25, 0.20% positive on the day. Thought the unit is showing overbought conditions, technical studies and the chart are suggesting more gains in the short term.

Gold recovers some ground, but the 1,280 contains it

XAUUSD daily chart Gold April 25
XAUUSD daily chart Gold April 25

Gold is trading positive on Thursday as investors are digesting mixed corporate earnings and geopolitical factors.

The metal is somehow extending its recovery from April 23 low of 1,266, but with the pair still trading below 1,280, the advance looks weak.

Currently, XAU/USD is trading at 1,277, 0.12% positive on the day. Immediate resistance is the 1,280 level, and above there, the 20-day moving average at 1,287, and 50-day MA at 1,300 are the frontiers.

To the downside, the 200-day moving average level at 1,250-45 is the level to watch. As Benjamin Lu, analyst, Phillip Futures, said in a note, “heavy technical selling activities have imposed negative pressures on the precious metal for the near term.”

Lu says that bears should break below 1,265 for a continuation of the bearish scenario. “A bearish breakthrough will see gold prices target the next main station of $1,245 in the coming term.”

Silver loses early recoveries, and posts drop on Thursday

XAGUSD daily chart Silver April 25
XAGUSD daily chart Silver April 25

Silver is trading negative on Thursday as investors are betting on the Dollar index and the upside move in gold is not that strong to push its correlated XAG/USD up. The unit remains pressured below the 200-day moving average.

The unit is trying to extend recoveries from its 2019 lows at 14.75, reached on April 23. However, silver remains contained by the mentioned 200-day moving average at 14.97 and the 14.90-15.00 area is acting as a strong resistance.

Currently, silver is trading at 14.87, 0.40% negative in the day. Technical studies are weak and are suggesting that any recovery will be short-lived.

FX Empire analyst Christopher Lewis is expecting more choppy movements in silver as he believes the 15.00 is a strong level that will not give up easily.

“Beyond that, if we were to break above the downtrend line of the wedge, then we could start to think about the market rallied a bit,” Lewis said in an FX Empire article. “Overall though, I think at this point it’s likely that we are going to see more back and forth as the US dollar is at extreme highs.

European Equities: Will the PMI Numbers Deliver another Boost?

Economic Calendar:

Thursday, 18th April 2019

  • German PPI m/m (Mar)
  • French Manufacturing PMI (Apr) prelim
  • French Services PMI (Apr) prelim
  • German Manufacturing PMI (Apr) prelim
  • German Services PMI (Apr) prelim
  • Manufacturing PMI (Apr) prelim (Eurozone)
  • Markit Composite PMI (Apr) prelim (Eurozone)
  • Services PMI (Apr) prelim (Eurozone)

Friday, 19th April 2019

  • N/A

The Majors

The European majors continued with their mini-rally on Wednesday. The CAC40 led the way on the day, rising by 0.62%. Not too far behind were the DAX and EuroStoxx600 with gains of 0.43% and 0.10% respectively.

For the current week, the DAX leads the way with a 1.28% gain coming from a 6th consecutive day in the green. The upward momentum has given the DAX a 5.44% rise for the current month, which has only been outgunned by the CSI300. The CSI300 was up by 5.55% for April.

The Stats,

Economic data released through the European session on Wednesday was limited to finalized Eurozone inflation and trade data.

According to figures released by the European Commission, the Eurozone’s trade surplus widened from €1.5bn to €17.9bn in February. Inflation figures were in line with forecasts, with the annual rate of core inflation sitting at 0.8%, well below the ECB target.

The stats had little influence on the day, in spite of the widening in the trade deficit.

A choppy start to the day saw the major bourses fall into the red before rallying through the second half of the day.

Providing support through the day was better than expected economic data out of China. The Chinese economy grew by 6.4%, year-on-year, in the first quarter, which was better than a forecasted 6.3%. Whilst growth for the quarter eased to 1.4%, quarter-on-quarter, the rest of the stats were impressive. Industrial production surged by 8.5% in March, with retail sales jumping by 8.7%.

The stats certainly eased any market jitters over the global economy supported by hopes of the U.S and China nearing an agreement.

Driven by the stats out of China, European banks and autos continued to lead the way. On the DAX, Volkswagen and Daimler were amongst the front runners, gaining 2.95% and 2.30% respectively. From the financial sector, BNP Paribas and Commerzbank gained 1.64% and 1.54% respectively. Deutsche Bank trailed the due, gaining 0.73% on the day.

The European majors managed to avoid a late pullback as the U.S majors struggled following disappointing earnings results from Netflix and IBM.

The Day Ahead

Following 1st quarter GDP numbers and more out of China and trade and inflation figures out of the Eurozone, stats are more regionally specific this morning.

Economic data due out of the Eurozone include flash April private-sector PMI numbers for France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

While the market is unlikely to expect Germany’s manufacturing sector to return to expansion in April, a slower pace of contraction would be needed.

A combination of better than expected economic data out of China and a slower pace of contraction Germany’s manufacturing sector would fuel the current rally.

On the earnings front, American Express is due to release their quarterly earnings. Positive results will likely have a more muted impact on risk sentiment. Economic data out of the U.S later today will be of importance. U.S retail sales and private sector PMI numbers will provide further guidance on how the U.S economy is performing going into the 2nd quarter.

At the time of writing, it was a mixed bag for the futures. The DAX30 was down 19.5 points, while the CAC40 was pointing to a 34 point gain at the open.

Precious Metals Trade Positive On Cautious Investor Sentiment

Precious metals are seeing positive price action in the global market today as US Dollar fell in the broad market following dovish Fed forward guidance released last night. For US Dollar denominated precious metals, a weaker USD in broad market is highly positive as it leads to increased participation from investors who hold other currencies. Last night’s dovish fed update led to US government bond yields declining sharply in the global market. More dovish than expected Fed update and declining US T.Yields weighed down USD bulls in the broad market causing precious metals to gain a sharp upside move overnight. While risk appetite remained high in the Asian market, the weaker dollar helped keep the price steady near overnight gains on increased participation from emerging economies in Asia.

Crude Oil Gains on Draw in US Weekly Crude Oil Stockpile

Later, safe haven demand increased ahead of European market session as investor sentiment turned cautious while awaiting Bank Of England’s interest rate decision and forward guidance update. Also, EU summit in which leaders representing all 27 member nations are expected to participate is scheduled to begin today and vote on UK’s request to extend article 50 deadline which will greatly affect directional bias of European equities and major forex currency pairs. This caused investors to hold back from placing major bets and divert their funds towards safe-haven assets helping precious metal bulls enjoy positive price action across Asian and European market hours. As of writing this article. spot gold XAUUSD is trading at $1318.34 per ounce up by 0.45% on the day, having hit a new 3-week high earlier today at $1320. 38 per ounce while US gold futures GCcv1 is trading at $1318 per ounce up by 1.25% on the day.

Meanwhile, spot silver XAGUSD is trading at $15.56 per ounce up by 0.60% on the day. Crude oil is seeing positive price action in spot market well near 2019 highs. The spot price hit new 2019 highs at $60.03 per barrel earlier today breaching $60 mark for the first time in 18 weeks owing to dovish USD and the biggest decline in US weekly crude oil stockpile data since July 2018. Further supply disruption created by OPEC production & supply cut enforcement and US Sanctions on Iran & Venezuela also provides positive fundamental support to crude oil bulls in the global market. While the price action seems to have gone down from intra-day highs on profit booking the price is still well above $59 handle and as of writing this article, US crude oil WTIUSD is trading at $59.73 per barrel up by 0.05% on the day.

GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Declines on Brexit Woes

The GBPUSD pair yesterday traded flat near mid-1.33 handle but begun its decline on conflicting headlines. The European market saw an update hit UK market which stated that UK PM May is going to send a written request to EU’s Tusk for delaying Brexit deadline which caused the pair to see a short upward spike. This move by PM May was made following the rejection of the government’s request for the third vote by the speaker in House of Commons. Meanwhile, another report hit the market and this time the news was from the EU. The report stated that the EU is ready to make a “Contingent offer” to the UK on their request to delay the deadline for article 50 but the same may not be finalized during an upcoming meeting of EU leaders.

FOMC Update Eyed Ahead Of Friday’s EU Vote

This caused the pair to lose the momentum gained earlier in the day on news of UK PM May’s request for deadline delay. Following the update, British Pound began to slowly decline in the broad market and lost all its positive strength in the global market. However, the prevalent weakness surrounding USD prevented the pair from seeing sudden and sharp downside move resulting in a slow downside price action during yesterday’s American and today’s Asian market hours. As of writing this article, the GBPUSD pair is trading at 1.3223 down by 0.30% on the day. The price action of British Pound in the broad market is controlled by Brexit headlines and updates in medium to long term. But given lack of clarity following yesterday’s conflicting headlines investors have taken a cautious stance and held back from placing any major bets until further details hit the market.

However, in the immediate future, investors are awaiting today’s US FOMC interest rate decision and forward guidance update and UK macro data updates. These updates are expected to influence short term volatility and provide directional bias for the US Dollar in the broad market. UK macro calendar sees the release of CPI data while FOMC forward guidance update will help determine dollar’s strength and provide investors with short term profit opportunities ahead of the upcoming EU meet on Friday when leaders from all 27 member nations are expected to meet and vote on the UK’s request for the deadline extension. A neutral to hawkish tone in Fed forward guidance later today will result in sharp downside move while a dovish tone in line with investors expectations and mention of rate cuts will weaken USD further resulting in pair reversing early loss and moving back up near 1.33 handle later in the day.

Please feel free to let us know what you think in the comments below.

NEM’s XEM Technical Analysis – Support Levels in Play – 01/03/19

Key Highlights

  • NEM’s XEM fell by 0.76% on Thursday. Following on from a 1.5% slide on Wednesday, NEM’s XEM ended the day at $0.04315.
  • An early afternoon intraday low $0.04290 saw NEM’s XEM hold well above the first major support level at $0.0419.
  • An intraday high $0.04427 saw NEM’s XEM fall short of the first major resistance level at $0.0450 before hitting reverse.
  • The extended bearish trend formed at late April’s swing hi $0.46547 remained intact. NEM’s XEM continued to fall well short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.1359 following 6th February’s new swing lo $0.03405.

How to Buy NEM’s XEM

NEM’s XEM Price Support

NEM’s XEM fell by 0.76% on Thursday. Following on from a 1.5% slide on Wednesday, NEM’s XEM ended the day at $0.04315.

A bullish start to the day saw NEM’s XEM rise to a morning high $0.04424 before pulling back. Coming within range of the first major resistance level at $0.0450, NEM’s XEM fell to an intraday low $0.0429.

The pullback saw NEM’s XEM steer clear of the first major support level at $0.0419 before finding support.

An early afternoon intraday high $0.04427, saw NEM’s XEM come within range of the first major resistance level for a 2nd time before easing back to $0.043 levels.

The extended bearish trend, formed at late April’s swing hi $0.46547, remained firmly intact in spite of 3 consecutive weeks in the green. NEM’s XEM continued to fall well short of the 23.6 FIB Retracement Level of $0.1359 following 6th February’s new swing lo $0.03405.

At the time of writing, NEM’s XEM was up by 0.38% to $0.04331. A bearish start to the day saw NEM’s XEM fall from a high $0.04356 to a morning low $0.04315 before steadying. The day’s major support and resistance levels were left untested early on.

XEM/USD 01/03/19 Daily Chart

For the day ahead

NEM’s XEM would need to move through $0.0434 levels to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.0440. Sentiment across the broader market would need to materially improve, however, for NEM’s XEM to take a run at $0.045 levels. The second major resistance level at $0.0448 and Wednesday’s high $0.04501 would likely pin NEM’s XEM back on the day.

Failure to move back through to $0.0434 levels could see NEM’s XEM come under pressure later in the day.

A fall through the morning low $0.04315 would bring $0.42 levels and the first major support level at $0.0426 into play.

In the event of a broad-based sell-off, the second major support level at $0.0421 could be tested before any recovery. We would expect sub-$0.042 support levels to be left untested in the event of a sell-off later in the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

Major Support Level: $0.0426

Major Resistance Level: $0.0440

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1359

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1988

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3007

Trading Plan for February 25

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The market sentiment is on! Mr. Trump tweeted that he is going to postpone tariffs hike on China. It supported risky assets. The Australian dollar is among them. Check how to trade AUD/USD on Monday.

The economic calendar offers to trade on the speech of Mr. Carney, the governor of the BOE and Mr. Clarida, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Have a look at trade opportunities for GBP/USD.

Commodities Daily Forecast – December 28, 2018

Gold

The gold prices initially pulled back slightly lower during the Thursday’s session but has recovered from there to continue moving higher. The $1280 level will offer a short-term resistance and if it breaks above then it would easily reach towards the $1300 level and a break above could send the pair towards the $1400 level in the long term. The 50 Day EMA and $1255 level underneath continues to offer significant support to the market. …Read More

Silver

The silver prices continue to find enough buyers to continue to rally towards the $15.30 level in the yesterday’s session. With weakness in the USD, the silver prices will continue to find enough buyers to push the prices higher towards the $16 level. Pullbacks will continue to offer a nice buying opportunity in the silver. …Read More

WTI Crude Oil

The crude oil prices remained stable through yesterday’s session around the $45 level, which has been both supportive and resistive in the past. Overall the momentum continues to be negative and rallies should offer a nice selling opportunity. The $50 level above is a massive ceiling in the market and 50 Day EMA is also turning lower, which is a very negative sign. …Read More

Natural Gas

The natural gas prices went back and forth during yesterday’s session as volumes in the market continues to be very thin. The $3.50 level above continues to be massively resistive and rallies will continue to be a nice selling opportunity. The $3.20 level underneath should offer strong support to the market. …Read More