Natural Gas Prices Rebound on Cold Weather Forecast

On Friday, natural gas prices rebounded slightly after tumbling on Thursday. The week’s prices were up 1.5% but had large daily moves. On Wednesday, prices were up 14% followed by a 12% decline on Thursday. According to a recent National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration report, much colder than normal weather is expected to cover most of the Mid-West and cooler than normal will hover over the North East for the next 8-14 days.

Technical Analysis

On Friday, natural gas prices rallied, 1.5%. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 4.08. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 4.3. The 10-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average which means that a short-term up trend is now in place. Short-term momentum is negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

Production Rise in 2021

U.S. production of dry natural gas averaged an estimated 93.5 Bcf per day in 2021, up 2% from 2020. Natural gas production fell in 2020 as a result of low natural gas and oil prices that reduced drilling activity. Production grew in 2021 as drilling activity came back online, especially in the Permian Basin, where associated gas production in that region contributed to the overall growth in natural gas production.