- The five most popular cryptocurrencies this week were SOL, DOGE, SHIB, MATIC and LEO.
- Back below its 21DMA, Solana looks likely to retest annual lows around $25 per token.
- Dogecoin and Polygon also look at risk of further losses having recently failed to break above downtrends.
Cryptocurrency markets have been under pressure this week in tandem with stocks as risk assets ended an ugly second quarter in bearish fashion. Total cryptocurrency market cap was last around $845 billion, down more than 8.0% on the week. Bitcoin was lasting changing hands around $19,300, down just over 10% from earlier weekly peaks above $21,500. Ethereum, meanwhile, was last down about 12% on the week near $1,050.
Over the last few days, now familiar themes of growth and inflation concerns have been in focus and have weighed on crypto (and stock) prices. May US Core PCE data on Thursday showed that while there are some signs of US price pressures having peaked, inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2.0% target. Meanwhile, May US Consumer Spending data on Thursday was weaker than anticipated and resulted in many economists further downgrading their GDP growth expectations for Q2.
Moreover, some now think that the US economy is in a technical recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth). Data on Wednesday showed that US GDP growth in Q1 this year was even weaker than forecast at an annualized pace of -1.6% amid weaker than initially thought growth in consumption during the quarter.
Whilst signs of inflation peaking and growth weakening might encourage hopes that the Fed might ease of on rate hikes in the months ahead, this was not the message Fed policymakers sought to convey this week. Various policymakers lined up to offer support for another 75 bps rate hike later this month. Meanwhile, Powell was keen to emphasize that in a trade-off between getting inflation under control and supporting growth, the Fed’s priority strongly remains the former.
Over the course of Q2, which ended on Thursday, Bitcoin shed over 56% of its value, while Ethereum lost 68%. If the outlook for global growth, inflation and central bank policy further deteriorates in Q3, there is every possibility that crypto could endure further losses.
Outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, Solana scored the third-highest on crypto intelligence website LunarCrush’s social mentions metric in the last week. The cryptocurrency clocked a total of 1.1 million mentions. Solana also scored third on LunarCrush’s social engagements metric, clocking 1.39 billion engagements in the last week.
SOL/USD slid back below its 21-Day Moving Average (at $34.50) this week and at current levels in the low $32.00s per token is on course for weekly losses of around 18%. With the cryptocurrency having failed to test its 50DMA earlier this month and now back under its 21DMA, a near-term test of recent lows in the $25 area seems likely.
Dogecoin ranks fourth over the course of the last week according to LunarCrush’s social mentions and social engagements metrics, clocking 823.8 million engagements and 358.5K mentions. The dog-inspired memecoin failed an attempt earlier in the week to break back above its 50DMA (currently at $0.075) and a medium-term downtrend but is for now holding above its 21DMA in the low $0.06s.
This may shield the cryptocurrency against a drop back to annual lows in the $0.05 area for now. But the rejection of the medium-term downtrend earlier this week likely means that a test of recent lows around $0.05 is more likely than a test of late May/early June highs near $0.09 in the near future.
Shiba Inu ranks fifth over the course of the last week according to LunarCrush’s social mentions and social engagements metrics, clocking 426.7 million engagements and 343K mentions. The crypto community’s second favorite memecoin was last changing hands nearly bang on the $0.000010 level and is on course to post weekly losses of just under 9.0%.
Since pulling back from June highs in the $0.000012 area, SHIB/USD has been content to consolidate between its 21 and 50DMAs in a $0.0000095 to $0.0000105 range in the last few days. Depending on what happens with broader crypto sentiment as Q3 gets underway, SHIB/USD could push higher towards recent highs around $0.000012 or lower towards annual lows just above $0.000007.
The native token on Polygon’s blockchain MATIC was the worst performer in the crypto top 50 (by market cap) over the last seven days according to CoinMarketCap, dropping over 22%. MATIC/USD was last trading near $0.46 per token and just below its 21DMA at $0.47.
The cryptocurrency has faced selling pressure for seven straight sessions since rejecting a test of its 50DMA earlier this month. Like Dogecoin, it also recently rejected a test of a key medium-term downtrend. Bears will be looking for a possible retest of recent lows in the low-$0.30s per token.
UNUS SED LEO
Bitfinex crypto exchange utility token UNUS SED LEO was the best performer in the crypto top 50 (by market cap) over the last seven days according to CoinMarketCap, rising a little over 3.5%. LEO/USD has been probing the $6.0 per token level for more than two weeks now, unable to sustain a significant break above it.
Earlier on Friday, a brief period of bullishness saw the token come close to testing early April highs in the $6.25 area. At current levels around $5.97, LEO/USD trades about 7.0% up versus Thursday’s sub-$5.60 lows.