AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Bigger-Than-Expected US Job Loss Number Could Drive Aussie into .5792

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly lower on Thursday, shortly before the U.S. opening. We’re probably seeing some light position-squaring ahead of today’s release of the weekly U.S. Unemployment Claims report.

At 12:30 GMT, the weekly U.S. Jobless Claims report is expected to jump from 281K last week to 1.648K for the week-ending March 20. A larger than expected number could sink the AUD/USD since this would likely drive investors into the safe-haven U.S. Dollar.

At 09:12 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .5660, up 0.0001 or +0.01%.

“Bad numbers are expected and priced in to a certain extent, but there are people who think things will get even worse. In the end this may support the dollar as investors choose to bring their money home,’ said Tohru Sasaki, head of Japan markets research at JP Morgan Securities in Tokyo.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .5510 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through the last main top at .6685.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .6073 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The short-term range is .6685 to .5510. Its retracement zone at .6098 to .6236 is resistance. Wednesday’s rally stopped short of this zone at .6073.

The minor range is .5510 to .6073. Its 50% level or pivot at .5692 could become support today if aggressive counter-trend buyers come in.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .5660, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending Gann angle at .5910.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .5910 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a potential surge into the minor top at .6073, followed by the short-term 50% level at .6098 and the downtrending Gann angle at .6165. Since the main trend is down, look for sellers to come in on a test of these levels.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .5910 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into a pivot at .5792, followed by a pair of uptrending Gann angles at .5710 and .5610. The latter is the last potential support angle before the .5510 main bottom.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.