AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – February 21, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is crashing on Thursday following news China’s Dalian region customs had banned Australian coal imports. Reuters reported China’s northern Dalian ports had banned imports of Australian coal and would cap overall imports for 2019 through its harbors at 12 million tonnes, with Australian miners the only ones to suffer from the import cuts.

At 08:00 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7110, down 0.0051 or -0.70%. Earlier in the session, the Forex pair had dropped to .7086, or about 1 percent lower.

The Aussie was volatile even before the news, jumping to its high for the session after the jobs data beat forecasts, but fell after Westpac announced its was forecasting two rate cuts this year. It then it its low for the session as the import curb news raised concerns that other imports could also be hit.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7053 will reaffirm the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through .7296.

The minor trend is also down. The minor trend turned lower today when sellers took out the minor swing bottom at .7103. This move shifted momentum to the downside. The new minor top is .7207.

The main range is .7394 to .6764. Its retracement zone at .7079 to .7153 is controlling the direction of the AUD/USD. The Forex pair is currently trading inside this zone.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .7114.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7114 will indicate the return of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a drive into the main Fibonacci level at .7153. Overcoming this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with .7207 the next target.

The catalyst behind any recovery today will likely be tied to U.S.-China trade relations.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7114 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is the main 50% level at .7079. Increasing selling pressure will take out this level with the main bottom at .7053 the next target.

A trade through .7053 will change the main trend to down. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside and a possible steep drop into the next uptrending target angle at .6939.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.