AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Must Hold .6236 to Sustain Upside Momentum

The Australian Dollar is trading lower on Thursday, reversing earlier gains as traders shrugged off better-than-expected jobs data for not capturing the impact of lockdowns.

Australia’s unemployment rate in March came in at 5.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to data from the country’s bureau of statistics. That was better than expectations of a 5.5% unemployment rate for the month in a Reuters poll.

At 06:54 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6296, down 0.0025 or -0.40%.

Traders were not impressed by the Aussie jobs numbers because the data on March employment covered just the first two weeks of the month or before lockdown measures to contain the coronavirus were put in place.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6445 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through .5980.

The main range is .6685 to .5510. Its retracement zone at .6236 to .6097is support. This zone is also controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The short-term range is .5510 to .6445. Its retracement zone at .5977 to .5867 is the next potential support area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6296, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at .6236.

Bullish Scenario

Holding above .6236 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for a retest of the main top at .6445. Taking out this level will mean the buying is getting stronger with the March 9 main top at .6685 the next likely upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6236 will signal the presence of sellers. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the main 50% level at .6097 the next likely downside target.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.