AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Triangle Chart Pattern Warns of Heightened Volatility

The Australian Dollar is trading higher on Monday even after the country reported its biggest one-day rise in new coronavirus infections in more than two months. Steady demand for risky assets is helping to support the Aussie as well as end of the month position-squaring. Some short-sellers could also be going flat ahead of Thursday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report and Friday’s U.S. bank holiday.

At 11:41 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6877, up 0.0016 or +0.23%.

Later today at 14:00 GMT, traders will get the opportunity to react to the latest data on U.S. Pending Home Sales. It is expected to show an 18.9% jump, up from -21.8%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through .6811 will change the main trend to down, while a move through .6975 will signal the resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through .6896 will change the minor trend to up.

The short-term range is .7065 to .6777. Its 50% level at .6921 is potential resistance.

The intermediate range is .6506 to .7065. Its 50% level at .6785 is potential support.

The main range is .6402 to .7065. Its retracement zone at .6733 to .6655 is controlling the near-term direction of the AUD/USD.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6877, the direction of the AUD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6877.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6877 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the 50% level at .6921, followed by the downtrending Gann angle at .6935. Sellers could come in on the first test of this angle. This is also the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next targets coming in at .6975 and .7000.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6877 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the next uptrending Gann angle at .6827, followed closely by the main bottom at .6811.

If .6811 fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the 50% level at .6785 and the next main bottom at .6777.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.