The Australian dollar fell initially during the trading session on Monday but has also seeing buyers come back into the marketplace near the New York opened, showing signs of stability again. Because of this, it looks like we might get a little bit of a bounce, but I still see a significant amount of resistance above, especially near the 0.75 level. That is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and of course where we see the 50 day EMA dipping towards the 200 day EMA. All of that combined should offer quite a bit of resistance. Furthermore, we have seen significant selling from that general vicinity as well, so I think a lot of it is going to be difficult to overcome.
AUD/USD Video 27.07.21
Keep in mind the Australian dollar has the unfortunate problem of internal lockdowns for the economy, and that of course will continue to work against the idea of a strengthening Aussie dollar more than anything else. Because of this, and the fact that we have seen the 10 year note continue to attract inflows, it is possible that it is only a matter of time before the US dollar might strengthen. Nonetheless, that does not mean that we cannot bounce a bit from here, and quite frankly it is starting to look like that. I will be looking for signs of exhaustion in order to start shorting, as the Australian dollar certainly looks threatened overall. That being said, I think the one thing you can probably count on is a lot of choppy behavior regardless of the direction.
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