AUD/USD rose on Thursday in order to attempt a run at the 1.04 resistance area. The pair did manage to hold onto gains, but just barely. The candle formed was a shooting star, and is at the top of the recent range. In fact, it appears that we could be forming an ascending triangle currently, and this would signal real strength. The breaking above and daily close over the 1.04 line would give us the signal we need to see in order to believe the strength in this pair.
The Dollar has been bid up quite handily over the last several months in an attempt to run for cover. The safety trade could continue, and this would almost certainly push this pair lower. Either way, we are waiting to see if the top of the triangle gets broken on a daily close to buy, or if we break the bottom line on a daily close to sell.