The AUD/USD is trading lower shortly before the start of the U.S. trading session. Today is a U.S. bank holiday so volume and volatility may be lower than average. However, you still have to be aware of the possibility of a volatility spike.
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. It will turn up on a trade through .7524. Momentum is trending higher. Since the market is up 14 sessions since the December 23 main bottom at .7159, I’m not sure how much upside potential there is if .7524 is taken out. After taking it out, we may see a short-term setback then buyers may take another run at the upside.
The main range is .7777 to .7159. Its retracement zone is .7468 to .7541. This zone is currently being tested. It is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.
The short-term range is .7159 to .7518. If there is a correction then look for an eventual move into its retracement zone at .7338 to .7296.
Based on the current price at .7467, the direction of the market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .7468.
A sustained move over .7468 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could generate enough upside momentum to challenge the resistance cluster at .7541 to .7542. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.
A sustained move under .7468 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target angle comes in at .7439. We could see an acceleration to the downside if this angle fails because the next downside target is the short-term 50% level at .7338.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at .7468 all session. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the buyers or the sellers are in control.