AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis April 10, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0287 on this Easter Monday. Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak in a downtrend against neighboring New Zealand dollar. The pair is likely to find support at 1.0231, the low of January 13 and resistance at 1.0377, the high of January 12. The USD regained some of its strength over the weekend.

The dollar fell against major global currencies on Friday after the U.S. government reported that the economy added a net 120,000 nonfarm payrolls in March, far below market expectations that renewed talk of Federal Reserve easing measures.

 AUD/USD has triggered a bearish trend-line breakout and is now holding beneath its 200-day average.

 Our cycle analysis remains bearish and favors further mean reversion back into 1.0231, then 1.0146 and the parity level.

A great smooth currency for Newbie’s! We are currently at 1.0310 in a very nicely built downtrend. Building a nice bear flag currently for the break of the S6 at 1.0246 to targets below. We expect continuation this week to the support at 1.0250 and maybe the -1.270 Fibonacci extension at 0.9960.  Watch the 1.0105 (-0.618 Fibonacci extension) for the bounce also. The average daily trading range (ATR) for the cross currently is 93 pips

China’s inflation edged up in March as the government shifted focus from containing politically dangerous price rises to stimulating its slowing economy.

The government said on Monday that consumer prices rose 3.6 per cent over a year earlier, up from February’s 3.2 per cent. That was driven by a 7.5 per cent rise in food costs, up from the previous month’s 6.2 per cent.

Economic Data April 9, 2012 actual v. forecast ( most European markets are closed )

Apr. 09

 

JPY

 

 

 

Current Account 

0.85T

 

0.66T 

 

0.14T 

   

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

3.6%

 

3.3% 

 

3.2% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

Economic Events April 10, 2012 that affect the AUD,NZD,JPY and CNY

02:30     AUD      NAB Business Confidence                                                                          1                             

The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index rates the current level of business conditions in Australia. Changes in business sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment. The index is based on data collected from a survey of around 350 companies. A level above zero indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions.

 

04:30     JPY        Interest Rate Decision                                                                                 0.10%                   

Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. 

 

06:45     CHF       Unemployment Rate                                                    3.1%                      3.1%                     

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

 

23:00     NZD      NZIER Business Confidence      

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Business Confidence Index rates the relative six-month business outlook. The index is a leading indicator of economic health. The data is compiled from a survey of about 2500 businesses.  

 

Government Bond Auctions April 10-20, 2012

Apr 10  08:30  Holland  Eur 2.5-3.5bn reopened Jan 2017 DSL auction

Apr 10  09:15  Austria  Eur 1.32bn 3.2% Feb 2017 & 3.4% Nov 2022 RAGBs

Apr 10  14:30  UK  Details I/L Gilt auction on Apr 19

Apr 10  17:00  US  Auctions 3Y Notes

Apr 11  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

Apr 11  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn new Jul 2022 Bund

Apr 11  09:10  Sweden  Sek 5.0bn Jul 2012 & Sek 5.0bn Sep 2012 T-bills

Apr 11  09:30  Swiss  Bond auction

Apr 11  09:30  UK  Gbp 4.5bn 1.0% Sep 2017 Conventional Gilt

Apr 11  10:00  Norway  Details T-bill auction on Apr 16

Apr 11  14:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Apr 18

Apr 11  17:00  US  Auctions 10Y Notes

Apr 12  09:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Apr 12  09:30  UK  Gbp 2.0bn 4.25% Jun 2032 Conventional Gilt

Apr 12  15:00  US  Announces auction of 5Y TIPS on Apr 19

Apr 12  17:00  US  Auctions 30Y Bonds

Apr 13  10:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Apr 16-30 n/a  UK Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication

Apr 16  09:10  Slovakia  Auctions floating rate Nov 2016 & 4.35% Oct 2025 & Bonds

Apr 16  09:10  Norway  T-bill auction

Apr 17  08:30  Spain  12 & 18M T-bill auction

Apr 17  09:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Apr 18  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Apr 18  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz

Apr 18  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on Apr 25

Apr 19  08:30  Spain  Obligacion auction

Apr 19  08:50  France  BTAN auction

Apr 19  09:30  UK  Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029

Apr 19  09:50  France  OATi auction

Apr 19  15:00  US Announces 2Y Notes on Apr 24, 5Y Notes on Apr 25 & 7Y Notes on Apr 26

Apr 19  17:00  US  Auctions 5Y TIPS 

Apr 20  15:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Apr 24 & BOT on Apr 26

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