AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis April 11, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The AUD/USD  was trading at 103.40 US cents, up from 103.05 cents on Thursday, before the Easter public holiday.

The Australian dollar has moved higher, as US markets weakened in response to unimpressive jobs figures.

US non-farm payrolls data, released on Good Friday, showed that 120,000 jobs were created in March, well below the market expectation of 203,000 jobs.

The US stock market and currency dropped following the data’s release.

This is because with the labor market looking weaker, it looks like QE3 (quantative easing) is not completely off the table, at least for traders.

Chinese CPI rose 3.6 per cent in March from a year earlier, compared to a rise of 3.2 per cent in February.

Chinese balance of trade figures are expected on Tuesday, and gross domestic product data is due on Friday.

Economic Data for April 9-10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Apr. 09

 

JPY

 

 

 

Adjusted Current Account 

0.85T

 

0.66T 

 

0.14T 

   

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

3.6%

 

3.3% 

 

3.2% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Economy Watchers Current Index 

51.8

 

46.5 

 

45.9 

 

 

 

 

RUB

 

 

 

Russian Interest Rate Decision 

8.00%

 

8.00% 

 

8.00% 

 

 

 

 

TRY

 

 

 

Turkish Industrial Production (YoY) 

4.40%

 

3.50% 

 

1.50% 

 

 

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese Trade Balance 

2.36B

 

2.19B 

 

2.83B 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Greek CPI (YoY) 

1.70%

 

 

 

2.10% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Greek Industrial Production (YoY) 

-8.30%

 

 

 

-5.00% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Portuguese Trade Balance 

-2.88B

 

 

 

-3.08B 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CB Employment Trends Index 

107.28

 

 

 

107.47 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

3-Month Bill Auction 

0.085%

 

 

 

0.075% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

6-Month Bill Auction 

0.150%

 

 

 

0.140% 

 

 

Apr. 10

 

GBP

 

 

 

RICS House Price Balance 

-10%

 

-12% 

 

-13% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

AIG Construction Index 

36.2

 

 

 

35.6 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

NAB Business Confidence 

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MYR

 

 

 

Malaysian Trade Balance 

10.58B

 

9.20B 

 

8.75B 

 

 

 

 

MYR

 

 

 

Malaysian Industrial Production (YoY) 

7.5%

 

6.5% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

Economic Events for April, 11, 2012

02:30     AUD      Home Loans (MoM)                                      -3.5%                     -1.2%                                    

Home Loans record the change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes. It is a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.

 

13:30     USD      Import Price Index (MoM)                          0.8%                     0.4%     

The Import Price Index measures the change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically.

 

19:00     USD      Federal Budget Balance                             -201.5B                 -232.0B

The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus; a negative number indicates a deficit. 

Government Bond Auctions April 10-20, 2012

Apr 11  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

Apr 11  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn new Jul 2022 Bund

Apr 11  09:10  Sweden  Sek 5.0bn Jul 2012 & Sek 5.0bn Sep 2012 T-bills

Apr 11  09:30  Swiss  Bond auction

Apr 11  09:30  UK  Gbp 4.5bn 1.0% Sep 2017 Conventional Gilt

Apr 11  10:00  Norway  Details T-bill auction on Apr 16

Apr 11  14:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Apr 18

Apr 11  17:00  US  Auctions 10Y Notes

Apr 12  09:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Apr 12  09:30  UK  Gbp 2.0bn 4.25% Jun 2032 Conventional Gilt

Apr 12  15:00  US  Announces auction of 5Y TIPS on Apr 19

Apr 12  17:00  US  Auctions 30Y Bonds

Apr 13  10:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Apr 16-30 n/a  UK Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication

Apr 16  09:10  Slovakia  Auctions floating rate Nov 2016 & 4.35% Oct 2025 & Bonds

Apr 16  09:10  Norway  T-bill auction

Apr 17  08:30  Spain  12 & 18M T-bill auction

Apr 17  09:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Apr 18  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Apr 18  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz

Apr 18  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on Apr 25

Apr 19  08:30  Spain  Obligacion auction

Apr 19  08:50  France  BTAN auction

Apr 19  09:30  UK  Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029

Apr 19  09:50  France  OATi auction

Apr 19  15:00  US Announces 2Y Notes on Apr 24, 5Y Notes on Apr 25 & 7Y Notes on Apr 26

Apr 19  17:00  US  Auctions 5Y TIPS 

Apr 20  15:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Apr 24 & BOT on Apr 26

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