AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis April 13, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The AUD/USD  jumped by almost half a per cent after data showed the Australian unemployment rate remained steady in March. The AUD is currently trading at 1.0396 poised to break the 1.04 level.

The figures showed unemployment remained at 5.2 per cent in the month, while the total number of jobs created stood at 44,000. The forecast was for total employment to have risen by 5,000 in March with the unemployment rate at 5.3 per cent, according to the median of 12 market economists.

Prior to the release of the data, the Australian dollar was trading at $US1.0307. The Aussie jumped to $US1.0362 after the release of the data.

The Australian dollar opened at $US1.030.

Economic Reports for April 11-12, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.770%

 

 

 

1.830% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

216K

 

200K 

 

205K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

1.3%

 

0.8% 

 

-0.1% 

   

 

 

MXN

 

 

 

Mexican Industrial Production (YoY) 

5.9%

 

4.3% 

 

4.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

10-Year Note Auction 

2.043%

 

 

 

2.076% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Beige Book 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Federal Budget Balance 

-198.2B

 

-196.0B 

 

-232.0B 

 

 

Apr. 12

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.4%

 

3.5% 

 

3.7% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

44.0K

 

6.0K 

 

-15.4K 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.2%

 

5.3% 

 

5.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

0.8%

 

0.6% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

INR

 

 

 

Indian Industrial Production (YoY) 

4.1%

 

6.6% 

 

1.1% 

   

Economic Events for April 13, 2012 that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and CNY

00:50     JPY        Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the Bank of Japan’s policy setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates.                                                                                                              

03:00     CNY      Chinese Fixed Asset Investment      20.8%                   21.5%

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment measures the change in the total spending on non-rural capital investments such as factories, roads, power grids, and property.                      

03:00     CNY       Chinese GDP (YoY)                              8.3%                      8.9%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

03:00     CNY       Chinese Industrial Production       11.5%                   11.4%     

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

03:00     CNY       Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)           15.0%                   14.7%   

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.      

13:30     USD       Core CPI (MoM)                               0.2%                     0.1%

13:30     USD      CPI (MoM)                                          0.3%                      0.4%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.                            

 14:55    USD      Michigan Consumer Sentiment   76.2                        76.2

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.

 18:00    USD       Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy

Government Bond Auctions  (this week)

Apr 13  10:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Apr 16-30 n/a  UK Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication

Apr 16  09:10  Slovakia  Auctions floating rate Nov 2016 & 4.35% Oct 2025 & Bonds

Apr 16  09:10  Norway  T-bill auction

Apr 17  08:30  Spain  12 & 18M T-bill auction

Apr 17  09:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Apr 18  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Apr 18  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz

Apr 18  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on Apr 25

Apr 19  08:30  Spain  Obligacion auction

Apr 19  08:50  France  BTAN auction

Apr 19  09:30  UK  Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029

Apr 19  09:50  France  OATi auction

 

                                                                                     

 

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