AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis April 26, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0311. Financial markets in Australia are closed today for a local holiday.

The main event this week—the Federal Open Market Committee meeting/Ben Bernanke press conference—kicks off today and concludes tomorrow, which may overshadow [other] releases.

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to only tweak its economic forecasts at its two-day meeting this week, keeping all its options on the table given cross currents in recent economic data, analysts say.

The dollar had gained ground on Monday, with economic data and political developments raising more questions about Europe’s ability to tackle its debt problems.

U.S. home prices dropped sharply in February to hit the worst level in nearly a decade, according to a closely followed index released Tuesday. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite fell 0.8% compared to January levels

 A gauge of U.S. consumer confidence has declined for a second month, ticking down in April on lower expectations, even as views on the present situation increased, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The consumer-confidence index fell to 69.2

New homes in the U.S. were sold at an annual rate of 328,000 in March, slightly above market forecasts. Yet sales fell by 7.1% last month because purchases of new homes in February were revised sharply higher, according to Commerce Department

 Economic Reports for April 24, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

CPI (QoQ) 

0.1%

 

0.6% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.6% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

Finnish Unemployment Rate 

7.50%

 

 

 

7.40% 

 

 

 

HUF

 

Hungarian Retail Sales (YoY) 

-1.40%

 

0.60% 

 

0.60% 

 

 

 

SEK

 

Swedish Unemployment Rate 

7.70%

 

8.00% 

 

7.80% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

Industrial New Orders (MoM) 

-1.3%

 

-0.5% 

 

-2.9% 

   

 

CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

 

1.0% 

 

-0.8% 

   

 

CAD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

USD

 

CB Consumer Confidence 

69.2

 

69.7 

 

69.5 

   

 

USD

 

New Home Sales 

328K

 

320K 

 

353K 

   

 

Economic Events scheduled for April 26, 2012 that affect the NZD, AUD, JPY and CNY

00:00     AUD       Conference Board Australia Leading Index (Feb)                                                            0.2%     

The Conference Board Australia leading Index released by the Conference Board measures future trends of the overall economic activity including employment, average manufacturing workweek, initial claims, permits for new housing construction, stock prices and yield curve. It forecasts short to mid-term growth in the Australian economy.

04:30     JPY         All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (Feb)                                                               -0.2%          -1%

The All Industry Activity Index released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry captures the monthly change in overall production by all industries of the Japanese economy. The index indicates the Japanese GDP and the overall growth figures, providing insight into current levels of Japanese economic expansion.

23:30     JPY         National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar)                                                                          0.3%

The National Consumer Price Index is released by the Statistics Bureau and it’s a measure of price movements obtained by comparison of the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. CPI is the most significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends. The purchase power of JPY is dragged down by inflation.

23:30     JPY         Overall Household Spending (YoY) (Mar)                                                             4.2%           2.3%     

The Overall Household Spending released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is an indicator that measures the total expenditure by households. The level of spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism. It is also considered as a measure of economic growth.

23:30     JPY         Unemployment Rate (Mar)                                                                                        4.5%          4.5%

The Unemployment Rate which comes from the Ministry of Health, Labor and welfare and it’s published by the Japan Statistics Bureau, is a measure of the percentage of unemployed in Japan. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market which influences the strength and direction of the Japanese economy.

23:50     JPY         Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar)                                                                                              1.5%

The Industrial Production released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry measures outputs of the Japanese factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector.

23:50     JPY         Retail Trade (YoY) (Mar)                                                                                               11.5%        3.5%

The Retail Trade released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry captures the aggregate sales made through a business location (usually a store) in which the principal activity is the sale of merchandise and related services to the general public, for household or personal consumption. Consumer spending is a key important indicator for the Japanese economy.

23:50     JPY         Large Retailer’s Sales (Mar)                                                                                                           0.2%

The Large Retailers’ Sales released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry” captures the total value of goods sold in large stores, chain convenience stores, and supermarkets. It indicates the level of consumption and consumer confidence. A high level of Large Retailers´ Sales stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 26  00:30  Japan  Auctions 2Y JGBs

Apr 26  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

Apr 26  14:30  Sweden  Details I/L bond auction on May 03

Apr 26  17:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Apr 27  09:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

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