AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis April 27, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The AUD/USD  is exchanging today at 1.0373. The Australian dollar is stronger, following the market higher in the absence of any other leads for the currency.

At mid day Thursday, the Aussie was trading at 103.54 US cents, up from 102.77 cents on Tuesday before the Anzac Day public holiday on Wednesday.

The Australian dollar has traded in a tight range between 103.50 US cents and 103.76 cents.

The local unit is caught in a range as traders wait for next week’s interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). A rate cut to 4.0 per cent from 4.25 per cent is widely expected after March quarter inflation figures, out on Tuesday, were much lower than expected.

The US Federal Reserve’s policy making committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), met on Tuesday and Wednesday (US time) and released a short statement saying the American economy was growing moderately.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke also indicated the FOMC was prepared to take action to stimulate the American economy.

Economic Data for April 25-26th, 2012 actual v. forecast

   

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

0.0%

 

0.3% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-8

 

-6 

 

-8 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-1.1%

 

0.5% 

 

1.9% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-4.2%

 

-1.7% 

 

1.9% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25%

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

 

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

2.50%

 

2.50% 

 

2.50% 

 

 

Apr. 26

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean GDP (QoQ) 

0.9%

 

0.9% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean GDP (YoY) 

2.8%

 

3.0% 

 

3.3% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Nationwide Consumer Confidence 

53

 

42 

 

44 

 

 

 

Economic Events scheduled for April 27, 2012 that affect the NZD, AUD, and JPY

01:00     AUD       HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Mar)                                       

HIA New Home Sales released by the Housing Industry Association presents the number of new home sales in Australia. It indicates the housing market condition. House buyers spend money on furnishing and financing their homes, which stimulates the demand for goods, services, and the employees

05:00     JPY         Housing Starts (YoY) (Mar)                                        

The Housing Starts released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport captures how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed. It shows the strength of the Japanese housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole due to Housing Starts” sensitivity to changes in the business cycle

05:00     JPY         Annualized Housing Starts (Mar)                            

The Annualized Housing Starts released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport captures how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed. It shows the strength of the Japanese housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole due to Housing Starts’ sensitivity to changes in the business cycle

12:30     USD       Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q1)                            

The Gross Domestic Product annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country’s economy is growing or decreasing.

12:30     USD       Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index (Q1)                       

The GDP Price Index released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce gauges the change in the prices of goods and services. Changes in the GDP price index are followed as an indicator of inflationary pressure that may anticipate interest rates to rise.

12:30     USD       Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) (Q1)

The Real Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average of the amount of money the consumers spend in a month on durable goods, consumer products, and services.. It is considered as an important indicator of inflation.

13:55     USD       Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Apr)

The Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released by the Reuters/University of Michigan is a survey of personal consumer confidence in economic activity. It shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money.

Government Bond Auctions (this week and first week in May)

Apr 27  09:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Apr 27  09:10  Italy   Eur 1.5-2.5bn 4.75% May 2017 & Eur 1.5-2.5bn 5.5% Sep 2022 & Eur

0.75-1.25bn 3.75% Apr 2016 & 4.25% Feb 2019 BTPs

May 01  09:30  UK  Auctions 4.5% 2042 Conventional Gilt

May 02  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

May 02  09:30  Portugal  Eur 1.25-1.5bn new Nov 2012 & new May 2013 T-bills

May 02  13:00  US  Announces details of 3Y Notes on May 08, 10Y Notes on May 09 & 30Y

Bonds on May 10

May 02  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on May 09

May 03  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

May 03  08:50  France  OAT auction

 

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