AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis April 30, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The AUD/USD  is trading at 1.0379 with very little reaction to the news out of Japan, as the BoJ announces new monetary easing program.

The Australian dollar has receded from its overnight gains but could move past the 104 US cent mark heading into the weekend.

Since 0700 AEST on Friday, the Australian dollar traded between 103.59 US cents and 103.98 cents.

There was a strong performance from US stock markets, which have benefited from a string of better than expected earnings reports this week, could finally push the Australian dollar past 104 US cents overnight.

The central bank is announced a five trillion yen ($A59.45 billion) stimulus package, called quantitative easing (QE).

Economic Data for April 26-27th, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Nationwide Consumer Confidence 

53

 

42 

 

44 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals 

31.9K

 

34.3K 

 

32.8K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

-6

 

-4 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.1% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

388K

 

375K 

 

389K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3315K

 

3295K 

 

3312K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

4.1%

 

1.0% 

 

0.4% 

   

Apr. 27

 

JPY

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.5%

 

4.5% 

 

4.5% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.0%

 

2.4% 

 

-1.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

10.3%

 

9.8% 

 

3.4% 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

Economic Events for April 30, 2012 for the Asian and US Markets

13:30     USD                       Core PCE Price Index     

The Core Personal Consumption spending (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

14:45     USD                       Chicago PMI                                                                      

The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Chicago region. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing sector; a reading below indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI can be of some help in forecasting the ISM manufacturing PMI.

18:45     NZD                      Labor Cost Index                                                                                            

The Labor Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding overtime. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

21:00     CNY                      Chinese Manufacturing PMI                                                                     

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides an early indication each month of economic activities in the Chinese manufacturing sector. It is compiled by China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China Logistics Information Centre (CLIC), based on data collected by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).Li & Fung Research Centre is responsible for drafting and disseminating the English PMI report. Every month questionnaires are sent to over 700 manufacturing enterprises all over China. The data presented here is compiled from the enterprises responses about their purchasing activities and supply situations. The PMI should be compared to other economic data sources when used in decision-making. 

21:30     AUD                     House Price Index                                                                                            

The Australian House Price Index (HPI) measures the change in the selling price of homes in the nation’s eight state capitals. It is a leading indicator of health in the housing sector.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

May 01  09:30  UK  Auctions 4.5% 2042 Conventional Gilt

May 02  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

May 02  09:30  Portugal  Eur 1.25-1.5bn new Nov 2012 & new May 2013 T-bills

May 02  13:00  3Y Notes on May 08, 10Y Notes on May 09 & 30Y Bonds on May 10

May 02  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on May 09

May 03  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

May 03  08:50  France  OAT auction

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