Economic Events: (GMT)
No Local Economic Events Scheduled for Friday
00:15 USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member (2008 and 2011) Richard Fisher is to speak. FOMC members are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate and their speeches are closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.2% 0.2%
13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls 150K 200K
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate 8.5% 8.5%
13:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls 170K 212K
Average Hourly Earnings measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, not including the agricultural sector.
Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
Private Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of total number of paid U.S. workers of any business, excluding general government employees, private household employees, employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals and farm employees.
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 53.2 52.6
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI ) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the non-manufacturing sector. On the index, a level above 50 indicates expansion; below indicates contraction.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )
AUD/USD was trading at 1.0712. The Aussie on solid economic strenght in Australia and comments by Prime Minister Gillard saying that the Australian dollar will remain relatively strong for years to come, driven by its new found “safe haven” status and as investors use it as a proxy currency for the Asian region.
The Prime Minster stated that the European crisis was of a different nature – one stemming from concern about sovereign risk and the need for eurozone governments to undertake “long-term fiscal repair”.
As the USD lost strength, on economic data yesterday, investors sold greenbacks and looked for other safe haven currencies. The so-called risk currencies like Aussie and kiwi can be very well-supported. The duo hit 1.0756 in Asian trading up 0.27% and up from a session low of 1.0703 and off from a high of 1.0756.
Australia’s trade surplus rose to 1.7 billion Australian dollars ($1.8 billion) in December, from A$1.3 billion in November. Forecasts had projected a trade surplus of A$1.2 billion in the month. Exports rose 2% to A$27.8 billion, while imports rose 1% to A$26.1 billion, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported Thursday. The ABS also said that seasonally-adjusted housing approvals fell 1% in December, compared to a 10.1% rise in November. Economists had expected a 4% rise in dwelling approvals. ( see below for other economic report data )
Economic Data from Europe and the USA on Wednesday:
GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) -0.2% -0.1% -0.2% Unexpected Drop
CHF Retail Sales (YoY) 0.6% 1.6% 1.8% Unexpected Drop
CHF SVME PMI 47.3 51.8 49.1 Unexpected Drop
EUR French Manufacturing PMI 48.5 48.5 48.5
EUR German Manufacturing PMI 51.0 50.9 50.9 Above Forecast
EUR Manufacturing PMI 48.8 48.7 48.7 Above Forecast
GBP Manufacturing PMI 52.1 50.1 49.7 Above Forecast
EUR CPI (YoY) 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
USD ADP Employment Change 170K 189K 292K Unexpected Drop
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.1 54.6 53.9 Above Forecast
USD Crude Oil Inventories 4.2M 3.2M 3.6M Increased Inventory
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 06 10:10 Norway Bond auction
Feb 07 09:00 Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL
Feb 07 10:10 Greece 6M T-bill auction
Feb 07 10.30 UK Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt
Feb 07 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 16
Feb 07 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Feb 08 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 08 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl
Feb 08 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Feb 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Feb 13
Feb 08 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Feb 09 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 09 15:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23
Feb 09 16:00 US Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16
Feb 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14
Feb 09 18:00 Italy Auctions 30Y Bonds
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction