AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis Feb.3 , 2012 Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

No Local Economic Events Scheduled for Friday

00:15     USD       FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member (2008 and 2011) Richard Fisher is to speak. FOMC members are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate and their speeches are closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend                                                                                                 

 13:30    USD      Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)                              0.2%                      0.2%                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Payrolls                                                         150K                      200K                     

 13:30    USD       Unemployment Rate                                                   8.5%                      8.5%                     

13:30     USD       Private Nonfarm Payrolls                                          170K                      212K

 Employment Reports

Average Hourly Earnings measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, not including the agricultural sector.

Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of total number of paid U.S. workers of any business, excluding general government employees, private household employees, employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals and farm employees.


 15:00    USD       ISM Non-Manufacturing Index                                 53.2                        52.6

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI ) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the non-manufacturing sector. On the index, a level above 50 indicates expansion; below indicates contraction.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.


Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )

AUD/USD was trading at 1.0712. The Aussie on solid economic strenght in Australia and comments by Prime Minister Gillard saying that the Australian dollar will remain relatively strong for years to come, driven by its new found “safe haven” status and as investors use it as a proxy currency for the Asian region.

The Prime Minster stated that the European crisis was of a different nature – one stemming from concern about sovereign risk and the need for eurozone governments to undertake “long-term fiscal repair”.

As the USD lost strength, on economic data yesterday, investors sold greenbacks and looked for other safe haven currencies. The so-called risk currencies like Aussie and kiwi can be very well-supported. The duo hit 1.0756 in Asian trading up 0.27% and up from a session low of 1.0703  and off from a high of 1.0756.

Australia’s trade surplus rose to  1.7 billion Australian dollars ($1.8 billion) in December, from A$1.3 billion in November. Forecasts had projected a trade surplus of A$1.2 billion in the month. Exports rose 2% to A$27.8 billion, while imports rose 1% to A$26.1 billion, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported Thursday. The ABS also said that seasonally-adjusted housing approvals fell 1% in December, compared to a 10.1% rise in November. Economists had expected a 4% rise in dwelling approvals.  ( see below for other economic report data )



Economic Data from Europe and the USA on Wednesday:

GBP       Nationwide HPI (MoM)                          -0.2%                    -0.1%                     -0.2%      Unexpected Drop           

CHF        Retail Sales (YoY)                               0.6%                     1.6%                      1.8%       Unexpected Drop           

CHF        SVME PMI                                              47.3                       51.8                        49.1        Unexpected Drop

EUR        French Manufacturing PMI                  48.5                       48.5                        48.5                                       

EUR        German Manufacturing PMI              51.0                      50.9                        50.9         Above Forecast              

 EUR       Manufacturing PMI                              48.8                      48.7                        48.7         Above Forecast              

 GBP      Manufacturing PMI                               52.1                      50.1                        49.7        Above Forecast               

 EUR       CPI (YoY)                                                2.7%                     2.7%                      2.7%

USD       ADP Employment Change                 170K                     189K                      292K      Unexpected Drop

USD       ISM Manufacturing PMI                       54.1                       54.6                        53.9        Above Forecast

USD       Crude Oil Inventories                           4.2M                      3.2M                      3.6M      Increased Inventory

Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales

Feb 06  10:10  Norway  Bond auction

Feb 07  09:00  Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL

Feb 07  10:10  Greece  6M T-bill auction

Feb 07  10.30  UK  Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt

Feb 07  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Feb 16

Feb 07  18:00  US  Auctions 3Y Notes

Feb 08  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 08  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Feb 08  10:30  Swiss  Bond auction

Feb 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Feb 13

Feb 08  18:00  US  Auctions 10Y Notes

Feb 09  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 09  15:30  Sweden  Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23

Feb 09  16:00  US  Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16

Feb 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14

Feb 09  18:00  Italy   Auctions 30Y Bonds

Feb 10  11:00  Belgium  OLO auction

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