AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 4, 2014 Forecast

audusd monday bnsnlaAnalysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading flat this morning at 0.8752 after recovering slightly on Friday from its decline under the 87 level.  This morning AIG manufacturing index data printed lower than last month along with MI inflation. The surprise was a decline in building permits, expected to print at -.03% and the actual was -2.9% a large drop in housing. Australia saw data on inflation, building permits and job advertisements ahead of the Reserve Bank decision on interest rates on Tuesday.  The Australian dollar had a small dip on Monday following weaker than expected data showing building approvals fell 2.9 per cent in December.

But the market shrugged off that news as investors with short positions bought back the Aussie ahead of the RBA’s February meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is due to deliver its monthly policy announcement. Economists forecast that policymakers will keep the baseline lending rate unchanged at 2.5 percent. Investors seem to agree, with priced-in expectations showing a mere 6 percent probability of rate cut and no policy changes over the coming 12 months.

The RBA will detail its updated economic forecasts on Friday, with the release of its Statement on Monetary Policy. Other data out in Australia this week includes manufacturing, commodity prices and building approvals today and retail and trade on Thursday. Traders will also be eyeing the Australian NAB business confidence quarterly survey on Thursday after the monthly reading showed a rebound in December.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data February 4, 2014 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Feb. 03

 

AUD

 

 

AIG Manufacturing Index 

46.7

 

 

 

47.6 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) 

0.1%

 

 

 

0.7% 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Manufacturing PMI 

50.90

 

 

 

50.80 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-2.9%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

 

 

-0.8% 

   

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI 

53.4

 

 

 

54.6 

 

 

 

 

IDR

 

 

Indonesian Trade Balance 

1.52B

 

0.55B 

 

0.78B 

 

 

 

 

IDR

 

 

Indonesian Inflation (YoY) 

8.22%

 

8.38% 

 

8.38% 

 

 

 

 

THB

 

 

Thai CPI (YoY) 

1.93%

 

1.71% 

 

1.67% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD(15 minutes)20140203064241

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Feb. 04

03:30

AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

2.50%

2.50%

 

21:45

NZD

Employment Change (QoQ) 

0.6%

1.2%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Feb 04 10:03 Sweden

Feb 04 10:15 Austria

Feb 04 10:30 Belgium

Feb 04 10:30 UK

Feb 05 10:30 Germany

Feb 05 16:00 US

Feb 06 09:30 Spain

Feb 06 10:03 Sweden

Feb 07 10:03 Sweden

Feb 07 16:30 Italy

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