Economic Events: (GMT)
00:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM)
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
21:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) 0.2%
Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
21:45 NZD Labor Cost Index (QoQ)
21:45 NZD Unemployment Rate 6.6%
The Labor Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding overtime. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quarter.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD.
Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )
AUD/USD was trading at 1.0695 The Aussie was lower against the U.S. Dollar on Friday.
The USD continued to hold strenght on the US employment data and on Fed Reserve Fisher, who indicated that the low interest rates set last week by the Fed most likely will not hold until 2014, that is had no basis to project interest rates that far out.
Australia trade balance came in above forecast, giving the markets some positive data. Along with Prime Ministers Gillard, tax reforms and statements of earlier in the week.
The Greek crisis or saga… continues on, its like a famous greek tradegy.. does Homer come to mind… it just never seems to end.
Economic Data results prior trading day (key better than expected worse than expected at forecast)
NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) 1.2% -0.8%
AUD Building Approvals (MoM) -1.0% 2.1% 10.1%
AUD Trade Balance 1.71B 1.20B 1.34B
CHF Trade Balance 2.07B 2.85B 2.95B
GBP Construction PMI 51.4 52.9 53.2
EUR PPI (MoM) -0.2% -0.1% 0.2%
USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) 38.9% 30.6%
USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 0.7% 1.0% 1.9%
USD Initial Jobless Claims 367K 373K 379K
USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 1.2% 0.9% -2.1%
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 06 10:10 Norway Bond auction
Feb 07 09:00 Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL
Feb 07 10:10 Greece 6M T-bill auction
Feb 07 10.30 UK Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt
Feb 07 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 16
Feb 07 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Feb 08 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 08 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl
Feb 08 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Feb 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Feb 13
Feb 08 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Feb 09 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 09 15:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23
Feb 09 16:00 US Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16
Feb 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14
Feb 09 18:00 Italy Auctions 30Y Bonds
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction