AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis January 10, 2014 Forecast

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis January 10, 2014 Forecast
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis January 10, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD gave up 22 points this morning paying little attention to the surge in Australian retail sales which printed well above expectations as building approvals continued to decline. The US dollar is flat this morning after its climb this week. FOMC minutes released yesterday indicate that the Fed will continue its program of tapering month asset purchases. Chinese inflation data reported under expectations with both PPI and CPI coming in lower than expected.

The Australian dollar dropped as low as 88.83 cents during the morning session after the release of some good US employment data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December policy helped strengthen the US dollar. But it regained some ground following the release of stronger domestic retail sales and building approvals figures.

Australia’s retail sector expanded at a higher-than-expected pace in November, according to sales figures, underscoring the effects of easy money conditions as the central bank tries to induce spending.

Retail sales were up 0.7% month-on-month in November, according to seasonally-adjusted data from Australia Bureau of Statistics, after rising 0.5% the previous month. Sales came in above the 0.4% growth rate expected by analyst.

In a bid to ignite demand, Australia’s central bank has maintained an ultra-loose stance on monetary policy, holding interest rates at a half-century low of 2.5% since August last year. However, a rapid deterioration in labor market conditions has caused fear amongst consumers, with job security a top concern as the economic outlook continues to falter. The Westpac/Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment slumped 4.8% in December, with a sub-index tracking unemployment expectations rising 4.6% over the month. Consumers’ view the outlook for the economy is also very weak, with sub-indices measuring the 12 month, and five year horizons, each sliding more than 10% below their average levels over the past three months.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data January 9, 2014 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jan. 09

 

AUD

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-1.5%

 

-1.0% 

 

-1.6% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.3% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

2.50%

 

2.50% 

 

2.50% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

2.5%

 

2.7% 

 

3.0% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-1.4%

 

-1.3% 

 

-1.4% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 audusd 0109

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Jan. 10

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

197K

203K

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

196K

196K

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

34.5

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *