AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis July 1, 2013 Forecast

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis July 1, 2013 Forecast
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis July 1, 2013 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.92.53 declining 23 pips as the US dollar gained in after sentiment turned more positive and comments from Fed speakers supported the greenback. As gold tumbles under the 1200 price level this morning so does the support for the AUD. Declines have been limited by comments from the PBOC which has assured markets that it will make sure credit is available to the banks in China.

China’s central bank said on Friday it would “adjust” liquidity to ensure stability after a weeks-long squeeze that has rattled financial markets. “The PBoC (People’s Bank of China) will use all sorts of instruments and measures to adjust the overall liquidity level, so as to ensure the overall stability of the market,” bank head Zhou Xiaochuan told a financial forum in the commercial hub of Shanghai. For roughly three weeks, funds have been in short supply on China’s interbank market and the interest rates banks charge to lend to each other have surged to record highs.

Traders are beginning to focus on Glenn Stevens and the upcoming RBA meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to cut interest rates on Tuesday as the falling Australian dollar does the central bank’s heavy lifting. All but one of the 13 economists surveyed by AAP are forecasting the cash rate to remain at its record low of 2.75 per cent when the RBA meets next week. When the RBA last cut the cash rate – in May, when the Australian dollar was still above parity with the greenback – its board said low inflation had allowed it to make the reduction.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 28, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 28

 

NZD

 

 

Building Consents (MoM) 

1.3%

 

-3.9% 

 

21.0% 

   

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) 

-1.4%

 

0.8% 

 

1.6% 

   

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

0.9% 

 

0.6% 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tokyo CPI (YoY) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

2.0%

 

0.2% 

 

0.9% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.8%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.2% 

   

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Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Jul. 01

00:50

JPY

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 

3

-8

 

00:50

JPY

Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index 

14.0

9.0

 

00:50

JPY

Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index 

-6.0

-8.0

 

00:50

JPY

Tankan Small Manufacturing Index 

-13.0

-19.0

 

02:00

CNY

Chinese Manufacturing PMI 

 

50.80

 

02:45

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

 

48.3

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

50.1

49.0

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Jul 01 09:10 Norway

Jul 02 00:30 Japan

Jul 02 09:15 Austria

Jul 02 09:30 Belgium

Jul 02 09:30 UK

Jul 02 14:30 UK

Jul 03 15:00 US

Jul 04 00:00 Japan

Jul 04 08:30 Spain

Jul 04 08:50 France

Jul 04 11:00 Norway

Jul 05 15:30 Italy

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