AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis April 30 – May 4, 2012, Forecast

Introduction:  The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD ended the week at 1.0472 soaring as the USD lost momentum after the final blow, on a disappointing GDP report, showing the economy was only growing at a rate of 2.2%, when economists had expected a data to show a rate of 2.5% after the 4th quarter last year of 3.%

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Apr 27, 2012

1.0472

1.0370

1.0475

1.0354

0.99%

Apr 26, 2012

1.0369

1.0359

1.0399

1.0350

0.10%

Apr 25, 2012

1.0359

1.0334

1.0374

1.0307

0.24%

Apr 24, 2012

1.0334

1.0308

1.0336

1.0248

0.26%

Apr 23, 2012

1.0307

1.0382

1.0383

1.0272

-0.72%

The Aussie traded up most of the week on strong indications that the RBA would cut rates at their next meeting.

A rate cut to 4.0 per cent from 4.25 per cent is widely expected after March quarter inflation figures, out on Tuesday, were much lower than expected.

The US Federal Reserve’s policy making committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), met on Tuesday and Wednesday (US time) and released a short statement saying the American economy was growing moderately.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke also indicated the FOMC was prepared to take action to stimulate the American economy.

Major Economic Events for the past week actual v. forecast

 

 CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM)

0.5%

1.0%

-0.8%

 

 

 

 USD

 

New Home Sales

328K

320K

353K

 

 

 

 GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

0.1%

-0.3%

 

 

 

 GBP

 

GDP (YoY) 

0.0%

0.3%

0.5%

 

 

 

 USD

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

-1.1%

0.5%

1.9%

 

 

 

 USD

 

Interest Rate Decision

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

 

 

 

 NZD

 

Interest Rate Decision

2.50%

2.50%

2.50%

 

 

 

 USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

388K

375K

389K

 

 

 

 USD

 

GDP (QoQ) 

2.2%

2.5%

3.0%

 

 

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Yuan, Yen, Aussie and the Kiwi

 

Apr 29

9:00pm

NZD

NBNZ Business Confidence

   

33.8

 

Apr 30

9:00pm

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

 

53.6

53.1

 

May 1

12:30am

AUD

Cash Rate

 

4.00%

4.25%

12:30am

AUD

RBA Rate Statement

     

10:00am

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

53.0

53.4

 

May 2

8:15am

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

 

179K

209K

6:45pm

NZD

Employment Change q/q

 

0.5%

0.1%

6:45pm

NZD

Unemployment Rate

 

6.2%

6.3%

 

May 3

8:30am

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

382K

388K

10:00am

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

55.5

56.0

9:30pm

AUD

RBA Monetary Policy Statement

     

 

May 4

8:30am

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

 

176K

120K

8:30am

USD

Unemployment Rate

 

8.2%

8.2%

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

May 01  09:30  UK 

May 02  09:10  Sweden 

May 02  09:30  Portugal 

May 02  13:00  US 

May 03  08:30  Spain

May 03  08:50  France 

May 03  09:10  Sweden 

May 03  09:30  UK 

May 08  09:15  Austria 

May 08  09:30  Belgium 

May 08  14:30  UK 

May 08  15:30  Italy  

May 08  17:00  US 

May 09  09:10  Sweden 

May 09  09:30  Germany 

May 09  09:30  Swiss 

May 09  09:30  UK 

May 09  14:30  Sweden 

May 09  15:30  Italy  

May 09  17:00  US 

May 10  15:00  US 

May 10  17:00  US 

May 11  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

May 11  10:00  Belgium

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