AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis April 9-13, 2012, Forecast

Introduction:  The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.0321 picking up steam after falling from the high of 1.0466 mid week. The Aussie traded as low as 1.0244

A rally on Chinese equity markets has helped the Australian dollar to recover from a three month low.

Many Chinese markets were closed during the week for local holidays. The local currency was at 84.74 Japanese yen, down from Wednesday’s close of 85.04 yen 78.36 euro cents, up from 77.88 euro cents.

The currency had received some support from Chinese stock markets, which reopened after three days of public holidays.

The Australian dollar fell sharply this week on weaker than expected trade data and signs the country’s central bank will cut the official interest rate as early as next month.

Data released on Wednesday showed Australia’s trade balance remained in deficit in February, despite widespread expectations of a return to surplus.

Against the USD this week, it was a difficult battle as FOMC minutes showed the Fed was no longer interested in QE, which gave the greenback strength and also make investors have to look at real value of currencies instead of trading central bank monetary policy.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

04/06/2012

1.0321

1.0295

1.0322

1.0287

0.25%

04/05/2012

1.0294

1.0278

1.0323

1.0253

0.16%

04/04/2012

1.0279

1.0306

1.0312

1.0244

-0.26%

04/03/2012

1.0306

1.0426

1.0466

1.0303

-1.15%

04/02/2012

1.0426

1.0425

1.0445

1.0367

0.01%

04/01/2012

1.0425

1.0451

1.0454

1.0425

-0.25%

 

 

Economic Data for the week of April 2-6, 2012 for the Yen, the Aussie and the Kiwi actual v. forecast

Apr. 02

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

3.1% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 

-4

 

-1 

 

-4 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-7.8%

 

0.3% 

 

1.1% 

   

 

 

INR

 

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-15.2B

 

-13.0B 

 

-14.8B 

 

 

Apr. 03

 

AUD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Rate Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Apr. 04

 

AUD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.48B

 

1.00B 

 

-0.97B 

   

 

Economic Data from the USA for the week of April 2-6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Apr. 02

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

53.4

 

53.0 

 

52.4 

 

 

Apr. 03

 

USD

 

 

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Apr. 04

 

USD

 

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

209K

 

200K 

 

230K 

   

Apr. 05

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

357K

 

355K 

 

363K 

   

Apr. 06

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

120K

 

203K 

 

240K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

8.2%

 

8.3% 

 

8.3% 

 

 

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

Economic Highlights of the coming week for the USA (only minor reports, a very light week)

Apr. 9 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

CB Employment Trends Index 

 

 

 

 

107.50 

 

 

Apr 10 

12:30

 

USD

 

 

 

NFIB Small Business Optimism 

 

 

 

 

94.3 

 

 

 

13:55

 

USD

 

 

 

Redbook (MoM) 

 

 

 

 

0.70% 

 

 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 

 

 

0.5% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 

 

 

 

 

47.5 

 

 

 

21:30

 

USD

 

 

 

API Weekly Crude Stock 

 

 

 

 

7.85M 

 

 

 

21:30

 

USD

 

 

 

API Weekly Gasoline Stock 

 

 

 

 

-4.46M

   

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Yen, the Aussie and the Kiwi.

Apr. 10

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

NAB Business Confidence 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

23:00

 

NZD

 

 

 

NZIER Business Confidence 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Apr. 11

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

 

 

 

 

-1.2% 

 

 

 Apr. 12 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

 

 

 

 

-15.4K 

 

 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

 

 

 

 

5.2% 

 

 

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