AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast

US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 21

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

Feb. 22

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

Feb. 23

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

Feb. 24

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

New Home Sales 

 

Rule:

The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

 Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0706 over the weekend.  The Aussie climbed to a weekly high of USD1.0797 on Friday on optimism over a rescue package for Greece, but gains were capped below the 1.0800 figure before a key meeting on Monday that my produce an official an agreement. This has been a crazy week for all the USD trading partners as economic data in the US was strong as well as positive data in Australia, but the market flow was controlled by Greece all week long with the euro surging and falling. Monday US markets are closed and news is expected from Greece and the EU.

The RBA surprised markets and held rates.

Strength

  • Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
  • German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
  • Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
  • Philly and NY manufacturers  surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
  • Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
  • NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
  • India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
  • Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
  • UK announces new round of QE
  • Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
  • China reduces bank reserves
  • ECB deposit facility falls
  • Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

 

Weakness

  • Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
  • Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
  • Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
  • Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
  • Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
  • Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
  • US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
  • CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

 

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Feb. 14

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

5.4

 

-11.6 

 

-21.6 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BOE Inflation Letter 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6% 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.8% 

 

0.0% 

   

Feb. 15

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.3% 

 

0.6% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

6.9K

 

3.2K 

 

1.9K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Inflation Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Gov King Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb. 16

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

348K

 

364K 

 

361K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb. 17

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.0% 

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

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